Matthew Hopkinson, Local Data Company - Solocal Group UK Event "How To Drive Online Traffic To Local...
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Transcript of Matthew Hopkinson, Local Data Company - Solocal Group UK Event "How To Drive Online Traffic To Local...
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The Local Data CompanyMatthew Hopkinson 26th February 2014
More Clicks, Less Bricks?
#HighStreet
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‘People are supposed to fear the
unknown, but ignorance is bliss when
knowledge is so damn frightening.”
Laurell K. Hamilton, The Laughing Corpse
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Current state of GB Retail
Role of Data
National, Regional and Sectors Insights
Partnership Insights
Summary
Today’s Agenda
Q & A
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Methodology
• 7,000+ locations
• Field visited
• 60,000 visits a month
Seeing is believing!
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7,000LOCATIONS TRACKED
NATIONWIDE
COVERAGE
554,096BUSINESSES TRACKED
850TOWNS
1,124RETAIL PARKS
897SHOPPING CENTRES
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Some of the clients who We Service
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Consumer Confidence
Source GfK
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Media Interest
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High Street Reviews
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Breaking News!
✚
748 stores 459 stores
-3% (22 store closures) -8% (40 store closures)
42% on High Street 72% on Retail Parks
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All Change!
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The car is KING!
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FAILURES CLOSURES OPENINGS
Change Afoot!
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Destination v Decimation
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Vacancy rates
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North v South
Greater
London
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GB Shop Vacancy 2008-2013
4,04,55,05,56,06,57,07,58,08,59,09,5
10,010,511,011,512,012,513,013,514,014,515,0
20
08
-12
20
09
-02
20
09
-04
20
09
-06
20
09
-08
20
09
-10
20
09
-12
20
10
-02
20
10
-04
20
10
-06
20
10
-08
20
10
-10
20
10
-12
20
11
-02
20
11
-04
20
11
-06
20
11
-08
20
11
-10
20
11
-12
20
12
-02
20
12
-04
20
12
-06
20
12
-08
20
12
-10
20
12
-12
20
13
-02
20
13
-04
20
13
-06
20
13
-08
20
13
-10
20
13
-12
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2013 GB Retail & Leisure (All) Vacancy Rates
11,90
12,00
12,10
12,20
12,30
12,40
12,50
12,60
2013-01 2013-02 2013-03 2013-04 2013-05 2013-06 2013-07 2013-08 2013-09 2013-10 2013-11 2013-12
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National Vacancy Rates
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Regional Change 2012-2013
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Region Area 2013 Vacancy 2012 Vacancy Change
North West West End, Morecambe 32.9 27.2 5.8
Wales Newport, Monmouthshire 28.9 27.3 1.6
North West Bolton 27.8 21.6 6.2
North East Hartlepool 27.7 27.3 0.3
North West Bootle 27.0 23.3 3.7
North West Church Street, Runcorn 26.8 27.6 -0.8
West Midlands Walsall 26.7 25.4 1.3
West Midlands West Bromwich 26.6 24.3 2.3
North East Stockton-on-Tees 26.3 23.7 2.6
North West Eccles 25.8 26.1 -0.2
Vacancy – GB’s Worst Performing Towns
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Vacancy- GB’s Best Performing Towns
Region Area 2013 Vacancy 2012 Vacancy Change
Greater London Highgate 0.0 4.7 -4.7
East Midlands Eastgate, Lincoln 1.3 2.6 -1.3
South East Molesey Lock 1.4 4.3 -2.9
Greater London Barking Road West 1.6 3.3 -1.7
Greater London St. John’s Wood 1.6 4.0 -2.4
Greater London Askew Road, Hammersmith 1.8 5.2 -3.4
West Midlands Shirley Street, Solihull 1.8 3.4 -1.7
West Midlands Thornton Heath 1.8 5.1 -3.3
North East Woodford Green 1.8 5.3 -3.5
North West Debden 2.0 0.0 2.0
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Town Centre Shop Vacancy – 3 year change
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
More than -
20%
Neg 10-19% Neg 5-9% Neg 4-1% Flat 0% Pos 1 - 4% Pos 5-9% 10-20% Pos 20% +
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North v South Divide?
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Regional Groupings 2013 v 2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
North (NW, NE, Y&H) Midlands & East South (SW & SE) London
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North West Average Vacancy % 17.4
North West Average Retail Park Vacancy % 10.1
North West Average Shopping Centre Vacancy % 19.3
Averages - NW v SE
South East Average Vacancy % 11.8
South East Average Retail Park Vacancy % 6.3
South East Average Shopping Centre Vacancy % 14.3
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The Ruling Class?
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
St David's Cardiff
Liverpool One
Trafford Centre
Trinity Leeds
Meadowhall
Bullring
Metro Centre
Braehead
Westfield London
Shop Vacancy Rates
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Brands
As a consumer, you want to associate with brands whose powerful presence creates a halo effect that rubs off on you.
Tom Peters
The way customers relate to brands and how profit is generated has changed so dramatically almost every professional is being challenged to reconsider what they do in order to stay relevant.
Simon Mainwaring
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Openings & Closures
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Openings & Closures (Net Change) 2009-2013
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
All
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Openings & Closures (Net Change) 2009-2013
-3,00
-2,00
-1,00
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Multiples
Independents
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The last 3 years – top 650 Town Centres
143,960 openings and closures
Net Change % Units Net Change
Comparison -4.32 -3,083
Convenience 5.10 830
Leisure 2.29 1,200
Service 3.84 1,993
Total 0.49 940
BUT
Multiples = -1,741 (-2.35%)
Independents = +2,681 (+2.28)
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Risers 2013 GB wide
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Fallers 2013 GB Wide
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Footfall attractors – Fashion & Clothing
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Footfall attractors – anchor tenants
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Footfall attractors – new kids on the block!
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Scotland’s Towns – Case study
Partner research with University of Stirling (Professor Leigh Sparks) in
2013 on top 100 towns.
What is the retail scale and make-up of Scottish towns and cities?
2. How variable are Scottish towns and cities in their retailing?
3. How significant is retail vacancy?
4. Can we explain some of the patterns found?
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Retail Types: BMGC (Booze, Money, Gambling, Charity)
City Off
Licence
Pawnbroker Bookmaker Cheque
Centre
Charity
Shop
Index
Aberdeen 0.16 0.08 1.47 0.41 2.61 4.73
Dundee 0.34 0.46 1.38 0.46 1.84 4.48
Stirling 0.0 0.98 1.72 0.49 0.49 3.68
Inverness 0.62 0.42 1.25 0.62 0.21 3.12
Perth 0.37 0.19 1.12 0.56 0.19 2.42
Glasgow 0.2 0.26 0.73 0.18 0.35 1.72
Edinburgh 0.44 0.1 0.49 0.13 0.28 1.44
Source:LDC and University of Stirling
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“Change is inevitable. Change is
constant.”
Benjamin Disraeli
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Best Total Diversity
Town Diversity Index
1 Central London 0.87
2 Edinburgh 0.61
3 Brighton and Hove 0.59
4 Glasgow 0.55
5 Nottingham 0.53
6 Bath 0.51
7 York 0.51
8 Bristol 0.50
9 West London 0.50
10 Norwich 0.49
Town Diversity Index
11 Manchester 0.49
12 Derby 0.47
13 Exeter 0.47
14 Leicester 0.46
15 Cheltenham 0.46
16 Tunbridge Wells 0.46
17 Scarborough 0.45
18 Liverpool 0.45
19 Harrogate 0.45
20 Salisbury 0.44
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Worst Total Diversity
Town Diversity Index
1 Milton Keynes 0.23
2 Ilford 0.24
3 Wood Green 0.25
4 Oldham 0.26
5 Weymouth 0.26
6 Peckham 0.26
7 Stockton-on-Tees 0.26
8 St. Helens 0.26
9 Wigan 0.26
10 Scunthorpe 0.26
Town Diversity Index
11 Luton 0.27
12 Burnley 0.27
13 Torquay 0.27
14 Walthamstow 0.27
15 Sutton 0.28
16 Brixton 0.28
17 Richmond, London 0.28
18 Putney 0.29
19 Paisley 0.29
20 Rugby 0.29
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Milliband Index
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Summary
• More business failures/closures to come = more empty premises
• Significant variance in performance by location and type
• NEW AGE Technology is driving consolidation
• OLD AGE Property costs deterring occupation
• ‘All inclusive’ locations will get the consumers
• What can be done with the 15% + vacancy locations?
• Knowledge and understanding of national trends applied locally is key
• Ignore consumers at your peril!
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“To open a shop is easy, to
keep it open is an art.”
Chinese Proverb
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Thank you!
@matthehopkinson
(0) 20 3111 4393
www.localdatacompany.com
BRINGING DATA ALIVE!