Matt PhD Conference 2012

Public Policy & Climate Change in the Asian Century

Matt Spannagle Climate Change Advisor, AusAID

Canberra, 27 November 2012

Contents

Public policy & human development

Key public policy concepts

Mi7ga7on

Adapta7on

Ma: Spannagle has been the Climate Change Advisor for AusAID (the Australian Government’s overseas aid program) since June 2011 where his role is to provide expert input on climate change and strategic advice to AusAID’s substan7al and expanding programmes. Prior to joining AusAID, Ma: worked in UNDP as Senior Technical Advisor for a global programme of capacity development for accessing and structuring new climate finance, par7cularly carbon finance; in Canada on the design and implementa7on of the Canadian emission trading system, with par7cular focus on the project based offset system quan7fica7on and verifica7on requirements. Previously, Ma: worked with the Australian Greenhouse Office, where he managed a program that quan7fied and verified reported company emissions, and voluntary emission reduc7ons projects. Ma: has a Bachelor of Civil Engineering, and completed his Masters of Environmental Engineering Science by research on climate risks to large infrastructure projects (par7cularly dams) before working in construc7on and project management with dams and water infrastructure for private companies and state corpora7ons.

Public policy challenges of the century…

1800s – public health water supply, sanita7on, pest control

1900s – armed conflict

MAD, UNSC(?), ICC

2000s – ….?

Now

2100 Committed

Warmer than at any time since

we stood upright

Global temperature change

NASA data for 2010, 0.75oC above 1951-80 base period

Public policy objecEve: Avoid this… 2011: Warmest La Nina year, 11th warmest year

Fatalities > 1400; > 1.3M effected (Unicef)

Public Policy objecEve: Avoid this… Pakistan, August 2010

Fatalities > 1400; > 1.3M effected (Unicef)

Global food prices spiked recently for the second 7me in three years (World Bank)

Public policy …?

Australian drought/lack wheat export

Russian heatwave, ban wheat export

Oil > $130/barrel

Century of climate change (sustainability)

Tragedy of the commons -‐ >  global problem: lose-‐lose or win-‐win

>  accoun7ng for externali7es >  BaU of markets = certain failure

>  serious equity considera7ons

Public policy intervenEon required!

Australia’s internaEonal commitments

Kyoto Protocol 2⁰C

$599M to global fast-‐start financing 2010-‐13 (~$200M/year)

 52% adapta7on  Mi7ga7on:

  24% Non-‐forest mi7ga7on

  24% REDD+/LULUCF

 ~ 95% of FSF allocated, ~ 65% disbursed

> MiEgaEon – avoid the unmanagable - Reduce exis7ng emissions - Avoid future emissions - Sequester emissions

>  AdaptaEon – manage the unavoidable - Maladapta7on - Resistance - Resilience - Transforma7on

2. Key concepts

  already commi:ed to around 1.5 – 2⁰C

 2⁰C: between ‘dangerous’ &‘manageable’

 low probability of staying below 2⁰C

 most likely 3-‐4⁰C by 2060-‐2070

 At current rate > 4.5 ⁰C by 2100 (bleak)

Mitigation – “avoid the unmanagable”

The StabilizaEon Challenge •  Long response lag (50yrs+) from emirng to impacts

•  Key objecEve is to stabilize CO2e concentraEons   Requires global emissions below natural uptake (15-‐20Gt)   Currently at ~ 44Gt and by 2030 55Gt

  BaU for 550ppm by 2035

•  2050 populaEon of 9 billion ….means an alloca7on of ~2 tCO2e/capita globally

  India ~ 2t/capita

  China 6t

  EU averages 12t   USA, Canada and Australia ~ 25t

The trillionth tonne – why acEon is urgent

Allen et al, Nature, 2009 Meinshausen et al, Nature, 2009

Solomon et al, PNAS, 2009

80

60

40

20

0

-20

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2010 2015

2020 2025

2030 Year when

emissions peak

-2.0%

-3.6% -6%

-12% -22.6%

Required annual rate of reduction to stay within

‘trillion tonnes’ budget

Emis

sion

s ra

te: G

igat

onne

s of

CO

2 equ

ival

ent

•  We need to limit cumulative emissions of CO2 to a total of one trillion tonnes of carbon (1 TtC) to stay within 2°C

warming (range: 1.6-2.6°C). •  We’ve already spent half of our allowance since pre-industrial times,

so we have ~0.5 TtC left. •  At our present rate of emissions growth we will

spend the rest by ~2035, when we’d have to stop all emissions overnight to avoid exceeding 2°C.

MiEgaEon OpEons >  To stabilise concentra7ons (at 550ppm or below) before 2050 limits the mi7ga7on op7ons due to scale up and technology constraints

>  Poten7al share of mi7ga7on task to 2050: - Energy efficiency 40-‐60% - Renewables (10-‐15%) - Biosequestra7on (inc REDD)/Biofuels (10-‐15%) - Nuclear (2-‐5%) - CCS (1-‐5%) - Fossil Fuel switch (5%) - Agriculture and waste (5-‐10%)

Conceivable uptake without

major public policy interventions

Mitigation can & should = development!

To avoid (further) dangerous climate change we must address emissions in developing countries without stifling legitimate development goals…

Global approach to avoid 2⁰C Or

‘green growth’ or ‘low emission development’ or ‘bending the curve’

2000 2010 2030 2050

Emis

sion

s (tC

O2e

)

Emissions (BaU)

Avoid Emissions

Emissions (LEDS)

Reality Or Project level implmentation; or ‘low emission development strategies’ or

‘Suppressed Demand’

Satisfied Service, high emissions (BaU)

Satisfied Service Level, low emissions

BaU

: inc

reas

ing

wea

lth =

incr

ease

em

issi

ons

Current (unsatisfactory) Service Level

time now

Avoid Emissions

Emission Reductions

>  Energy efficiency : -  Improved cookstoves -  EE ligh7ng including off-‐grid -  EE applicances (fridges, mo7ve power etc) -  Renewables

•  large MW, par7cularly wind, hydro on grid (CSP, Solar, Geothermal, 9dal?) •  Smaller MW, larger numbers, par7cularly mini-‐hydro & solar systems for off-‐grid

>  REDD+ >  Biofuels -  Pelle7sed fuels -  Biogas from waste

>  Public transport >  Outside the box: ICT, Water treatment etc

What things might deliver miEgaEon & development?

Contested

2011: > investment in renewables increased 17% to US $257 billion (six 7mes 2004); > solar PV module prices dropped by 50% > onshore wind turbines by nearly 10%.

Cause for opEmism!! Public policy successes…

As development progresses, fewer people in LICs & LDCs, more MICs…

…the developed/developing divide erodes

>  Afforesta7on >  Reforesta7on >  Forest Management >  Increasing carbon in the landscape (Silvopastoral?)

> …algal biofuels?

Public policies on R&D?

Sequestering carbon – net reducEons

>  Antarc7c ocean iron fer7lisa7on?

>  Sulphur Dioxide stratospheric injec7on

>  Albedo interven7ons

>  Geosta7onary reflectors

Last resort of climate protecEon (public) policies

> MiEgaEon – avoid the unmanagable - Reduce exis7ng emissions - Avoid future emissions - Sequester emissions

>  AdaptaEon – manage the unavoidable - Maladapta7on - Resistance - Resilience - Transforma7on

2. Key concepts

Adapta7on examples: Dealing with saltwater intrusion

Lau Lagoon, Malaita Province, PNG

1. Rapid mi7ga7on now

2. development & diversifica7on

3. Integrate climate in investments

4. specific Adapta7on Ac7ons

Adaptation – “manage the unavoidable”

DARA COUNTRY (2010) UNDP Human Development Index* (2011)

OVERALL VULNERABILITY > AFGHANISTAN > ANGOLA > BANGLADESH > BELIZE > BHUTAN > BURKINA FASO > CHAD > DJIBOUTI > EQUATORIAL GUINEA > ERITREA > ETHIOPIA > GAMBIA > GUINEA-‐BISSAU > GUYANA > HAITI > HONDURAS > INDIA > KAZAKHSTAN > KENYA > KIRIBATI

-  Italicised = LDC * based on income, educa9on, life expectancy

2. development & diversification

187 Congo, Democratic Republic of the 0.286 186 Niger 0.295 185 Burundi 0.316 184 Mozambique 0.322 183 Chad 0.328 182 Liberia 0.329 181 Burkina Faso 0.331 180 Sierra Leone 0.336 179 Central African Republic 0.340 178 Guinea 0.344 177 Eritrea 0.349 176 Guinea-Bissau 0.353 175 Mali 0.359 174 Ethiopia 0.363 173 Zimbabwe 0.376 172 Afghanistan 0.398 171 Malawi 0.400 170 Côte d'Ivoire 0.400 169 Sudan 0.408 168 Gambia 0.420

2011: wekest year on record in Qld

Fatalities = 22 (Qld police) HDI: Rank = 2; value = 0.929

2011: record floods in Thailand

Fatalities > 500 (BBC); HDI: Rank = 103; value = 0.682

>  educate girls

>  Economic development and diversifica7on

>  Mobility and flexibility

2. development & diversification




4. specific Adapta7on Ac7ons


Design for changing condi7ons Investments should be suitable for climate condi7ons throughout their design lives…

A.  Hydrology i.  Spillway design ii.  water supply iii.  Bridges/river crossings

3. Integrate climate in investments

B. Extreme events i.  Building codes ii. Disaster risk reduc7on integra7on – eg -‐ Warning systems and shelters


C. Spa7al planning for expanded hazards i.  Flood plain mapping and

building approvals ii.  Water catchment/runoff

management (cover) iii.  SLR, wave run up

management (1m +High water)


Addressing the ‘MDB approach’ Integra7on doesn’t necessarily cost (much) money


Project cost

‘Climate proof’

Design includes CC from

start

$$$

2010 20??




4.  specific AdaptaEon AcEons


-  “…cycles of marginal improvement are NOT sufficient…” -  Building resilience may not be enough…


Resilience Vulnerability

Hazard

if the “unavoidable” cannot be managed using approaches and knowledge of the past…

reconsider assumptions

Resilience Vulnerability

Hazard

? Coping – reactive/

unplanned ~ Hardship, suffering

1. MaladaptaEon – current climate Rain fed corn farming in ASAL with

subsistence small holders

= viable smallholder plot

2. Resistance – minor climate changes Irrigated corn farming in ASAL with

subsistence small holders

= viable smallholder plot

3. Resilience – significant changes

Shift to cassava farming & CA

= viable smallholder cassava

4. TransformaEon – major changes

Shift to pastoral/rangeland

= viable smallholder cassava = viable pastoral

Then consider: 1. Maladapta7on 2.  Resistance 3.  Resilience 4.  Transforma7on

reconsider assumptions

transition

Key concepts

CC Impacts

Adaptive response

Autonomous coping Resistance

Resilience Transformation

Autonomous Resistance in new state

Timing? Increasing adapta9ve capac9y

CHALLENGE for PUBLIC POLICY!!!

4 phases of adaptaEon vary over: - Space

•  not all must change (within na7onal context) • some remain viable when others change and reduce resource pressure

- 7me • changes should be proac7ve and managed progressively, rather than responsive

• transforma7on too early likely sub-‐op7mal

MaladaptaEon, resistance, resilience, transformaEon

Inves7ng in resistance and resilience now makes sense ONLY if it avoids: - stranded assets (eg irriga7on system) - Stranded livelihoods (eg skills in farmers not pastoralists)

And it is ‘no regrets’

CHALLENGE for PUBLIC POLICY!!!

MaladaptaEon, resistance, resilience, transformaEon

cannot fund all projects, therefore: •  Ins7gate interna7onal & na7onal policies and programs (scale-‐up)

•  Co-‐investors – host governments, private sector, donors, CSOs & individuals etc (leverage)

•  Demonstra7on effect/persuasion of peers (replicaEon)

Public policies making a difference: { X > Σ 1 n }

Knowledge Management

-‐ share lessons – mul7-‐direc7onal

making a difference { X > Σ 1 n }

Advocacy

Dem

onstraEon

Peer persuasion

Directed

AcEon

Scale-‐up

Leverage

Replica7on Hard

1. Sequence 1.  scien7fic basis/impacts 2.  plan adapta7on priori7es 3.  implement

2. Research programs (new knowledge -‐ new applica7on, nexus/systems)

3.  CCA & DRR programming coordina7on, but… need to align CCA with development trajectories

What Australia is doing on adaptation

Lessons for scale up 1. Ownership – co management

2. Livelihoods – benefits for the poor NOW to ensure sustainability

3. Local solu7ons in broader context -  wave walls of bamboo locally made

-  part of provincial integrated coastal management plan

Vietnam: Partner with Kien Giang province & GIZ

Dealing with rainfall variability and saltwater intrusion

Reef Islands, Temotu Province

Dealing with shoreline erosion

Mangrove replanting at Buri, Ranongga, Western Province

Matt PhD Conference 2012

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