How Did We Get Here?

Matt Griffin

Pine Street Group

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Mix of Inputs

• Personal experiences

• Assessment of the world 5-6 years ago

Bike Trip Around the World 1986-87

Interlaken Home 1977-2001

Seaboard 2001

Seaboard 2001

Manhattan 2006

NYC – Place to Hang Out

Community – Making Friends

5-6 Years Ago

• U.S running deficits – two wars

• Americans spending more than we make

• House appreciation taken as a given

World

• Migration to cities

• Jobs from intellectual capital

• World is flat

• Traffic

• Energy costs

Financial Crisis

• Spend more than we make

• Pile up of debt

Financial Crisis

• Spend more than we make

• Pile up of debt

Mortgage availability

• Spend less than we make

• Lower cost/standard of living

• Use less resources

US Household Debt as % of Disposable Income

Environmental

• Green

• Global warming

• Energy efficiency

• Density

• Traffic

• Tolls, carbon tax, MVET, gas tax

Work Force

• Intellectual capital

• Creative class

• Shortage of talent

• High tech talent is younger and more

mobile

Work Force

• Intellectual capital

• Creative class

• Shortage of talent

• High tech talent is younger and more

mobile

Younger, college educated is more urban

Urban Centers Draw More Young-Educated Adults

In 2000, young adults with a four-year degree were about 61% more likely to live in close-in urban neighborhoods than their less-educated counterparts. In 2011, they are about 94% more likely.

USA Today

Seattle

• Green

• Traffic (+ 520 & 99)

• Mass transit

Commute Seattle

Seattle

• Green

• Traffic (+ 520 & 99)

• Mass transit

Advance degrees

U.S. Seattle

Bachelor’s degree or higher (persons age 25+, 2007-2011)

28% 56%

U.S. Census Bureau

Education

Seattle

• Green

• Traffic (+ 520 & 99)

• Mass transit

• Advanced degrees

Higher Ed

• Shrinking families, more singles

U.S. Seattle

People Living Alone 27% 41%

Age 18-64 (2011) 63% 74%

U.S. Census Bureau

Seattle

• Green

• Traffic (+ 520 & 99)

• Mass transit

• Advanced

• degrees

• Shrinking families, more singles

Pets

One Sea Change

What’s this mean for urban living?

• 25-40

• older

What’s this mean?

• Own less

• Live in less space

• Walkability

• Avoid that stinking, polluting, expensive

bummer

• Rent vs. buy

Economist 10/18/13 issue, US Driving

Based on

Driving 15,000

miles annually

Sedan

Average

SUV

4WD

Minivan

Cost Per Mile 59.6

cents

75.7

cents

63.4

cents

Cost Per Year $8,946 $11,360 $9,504

AAA ‘Your Driving Costs’ 2012

Cost to own and operate a vehicle in the U.S.

WORLD FINANCIAL

ENVIRONMENTAL WORK FORCE

Result

• Walkability

• Borrow it or rent it

• If not in my own place, nearby

• City streets and hood as living room

• Social – maybe greater

• Trade – parking for Wi-Fi and cell

• Internet pipes – cable, cat X, etc.

Social

• Golf course for a café and pub

• Third place

• Ways to build community

• Cul-de-sac and kids

• Dog wash or nursery

Older

• Is it much different?

• Flexibility

• Think younger

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What could screw it up?

• City doing stupid stuff with zoning

• Cutting Metro funding

• Not caring for infrastructure

• K-12

• Higher Ed

• Etc.