2

MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST AND THE MATCH OF TECHNICAL

VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING SUPPLY WITH LABOUR

MARKET DEMAND

1. Context

2. Mission statement

3. TVET supply strategic planning model

4. Early identification of the TVET needs

4.1. Methodological aspects regarding the identification of the forecasted labour force

demand

4.1.1. Information and data regarding labour force demand which are relevant for

TVET planning

4.1.2. Methodological approaches, tools

4.1.3. Limits and constraints

4.2. Methodological aspects regarding strategic planning

4.2.1. Strategic planning process for TVET supply

4.2.2. Methodological approaches, tools

4.2.3. Limits and constraints

4.3. Institutional roles and responsibilities in the strategic planning of TVET

5. Implications of the TVET strategic planning on the school network

6. Implications of strategic planning of TVET provision

6.1. The enrolment plan as an element of ensuring the relevance of the system

6.2. The relevance of educational provision as a quality assurance element in the TVET

system: graduates social and professional insertion analysis

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1. Context

The strategic planning1 of the technical and vocational education and training (TVET) is

performed nation-wide and its major objective consists in increasing the contribution of technical

and vocational education and training to a quick and efficient transition to an inclusive,

participatory, competitive and knowledge-based economy, which relies on innovation.

The above-mentioned aspects are supplemented by the challenges arisen from the quick

demographic aging, from external migration flows, that leads to the conclusion that TVET shall be

requested systematically to respond a series of needs, most of them pressing ones, of Romanian

employers.

Technical and vocational education and training, through its objectives, is subordinated to the two-

folded role played by education: the economic and the social one. Therefore, TVET cannot answer,

in a limited sense, to the immediate requirements of a specific job, but instead it must ensure

training for a successful career that involves social-professional integration.

Given these conditions, TVET must be perceived as part of a lifelong learning process, a stage

which is immediately followed by on-the-job training, in order to adapt to the immediate job’s

requirements.

This is why the TVET supply forecast, matching the demand foreseen for the labour force and the

transition from school to active life become strategic elements for a performance-based planning.

2. Mission statement

In order to provide a TVET supply that is relevant in relationship with the forecasted needs of the

labour market, the National Centre for TVET Development (NCTVETD) has submitted, with the

support of a number of institutions and experts that it worked together with and with the approval of

the Ministry of Education, a model for strategic planning of the TVET supply. The design of this

model has been accomplished in 2000, by capitalizing on the experience accumulated within the

1996-2000 period, and the first tools that the strategic planning of TVET supply relied on were

delivered in 2004.

1 The term “strategic planning” means here medium-term forecast for 5-7 years of TVET supply, realized within the

context of the model purposed by the NCTVETD.

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The relevance of TVET supply in relationship with labour market demand may be approached

from two perspectives:

a quantitative one, taking into consideration the skills and qualifications shortages on the

labour market;

a qualitative one, taking into consideration the match between the skills describing a certain

qualification and the labour market needs, on one hand and the quality of learning outcomes,

on the other hand.

The model brought by NCTVETD deals with relevance of supply from both quantitative and

qualitative perspectives, the relevance being approached from the point of view of its territoriality.

The territoriality operates with two dimensions: a geographical one and a sector-based one. The

geographical dimension is referring to TVET supply distribution at national, regional, county and

local community level and it is mainly aimed at decreasing the skills and qualifications shortage.

The sector-based dimension takes into consideration the validation of the educational supply

defined through qualifications and associated skills, at the level of economic sectors and it is aimed

at decreasing the gap between the skills and qualifications demand and TVET supply.

The two dimensions, the geographical and the sector-based one, are complemented by micro-level

planning, formalized through the local component of the curriculum that contributes to both the

decrease of skills shortage and to the increase of the match between labour market demand and

skills supply.

It is important to underline that the proposed model is not a perfect one, as it has its own limits. Its

main weakness lies in not knowing what the labour market demand consists in, a reason for the

Ministry of Education and NCTVETD to initiate from 1996 attempts to clarify this. It is also

important to underline that the attempts made so far have been faced with lack of certain

information and data, a lack that must be immediately addressed through the coordination of efforts

from behalf of those institutions operating in the field of employment and labour market.

This paper intends to introduce the geographical aspect of the planning that represents the strategic

planning model of the technical and vocational education and training (TVET) supply.

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3. TVET supply strategic planning model

The model is based on decentralizing decision and its distribution on more decision-making layers,

respectively the national, regional, county and local one. Also, strategic planning represents a

participatory enterprise based on collective action of multiple economic and social partners

(hereinafter designated as social partners), which represent the interests of employers, professional

associations, employees/trade unions, public administration, relevant government organizations and

also other organizations of civil society. Thus, commitment to decisions and observing the common

interest of all those involved are maintained.

The model combines the top-down decision-making flow with the bottom-up one. The planning

decision belongs to the county level, which collects information based on the results of desk-

research and monitoring and it is based both on the specifics of the local labour market as well as on

the capacity of institutional response on behalf of the school unit. The monitoring is performed by

the next upper levels.

The model proposed by NCTVETD also takes into consideration the time horizon for enrolment.

The TVET outcomes are measurable only after significant periods of time, longer than 1 year,

which impose an early anticipation of labour market demand.

Taking into consideration the fact that a training cycle for a qualification provided through the pre-

university educational system takes between 2 years (for the second level of qualification, relevant

for initial training of a qualified worker, and for the third level advanced of qualification) and 4-5

years (for a technician – third level of qualification), there is a need for at least medium-term

forecast of the labour market needs that can become reference to the technical and vocational

education and training (TVET) planning.

The substantiation of the TVET supply requires also, in addition to medium-term labour market

needs, information regarding short-term labour market demand, up to a one-year term. This

information contributes to the local component of curriculum and validates the economic

development trends based on which the forecast management is performed for the medium-term

needs.

The conceptual diagram of the TVET strategic planning model, presented below, underlines

three core elements:

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1. complementary collective action of institutional stakeholders spread across more decision-

making layers, respectively: national, regional, county and local level;

2. undertaking responsibility for definition of targets and actions, within the participatory

planning process, based on a common institutional interest

3. drafting strategic planning documents, based on prospective research meant to ensure early

anticipation of TVET needs.

Fig. 1. The conceptual diagram of the TVET strategic planning model

The quality of the strategic planning results is ensured through compliance with the “quality cycle”

principles during the design, implementation, monitoring and updating of the strategic documents.

Fig.2. Quality circle

Anticipation Prospective

research

Collective

action Shared

Strategic

decision

Ownership

Participatory

planning

Quality

assured

Planning

Review Implementation

Evaluation

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The key elements above mentioned are part of a cyclic process, which allows an improvement of

performance for the match between supply and demand, so that the quality of the entire strategic

planning process may be assured.

The functional diagram of the model is represented in Annex 1 and it underlines the institutions and

their roles and also the strategic documents specific to each decision-making layer. This diagram

also introduces the steps of strategic planning, respectively:

desk-research and drafting the strategic document (planning)

implementation

monitoring (evaluation)

updating (review).

The process is based on the self-assessment performed by advisory management structures,

organized at regional and county level. The school unit is responsible for performing self-

assessment aimed at improving TVET quality that includes also the analysis of supply (enrolment

plan) correlation with labour market demand. The analysis of social-professional insertion of

graduates, as quality descriptor, is also used to support this methodology that aims to improve the

employability and the employment of TVET learners.

4. Early identification of TVET needs

In order to substantiate planning of medium-term supply, there was a need to forecast the labour

market demand, which, in turn, could allow an estimate regarding future demand of TVET.

As we lack fit to purpose and solid forecasts designed by authorized bodies, within the programs for

the reform and modernization of technical and vocational education and training, a series of labour

market surveys were initiated, as follows:

1997

Labour market survey: The link between labour market needs and educational supply within

PHARE VET Project (delivered by “Protector AS” Social Research Institute in 1997)

The purpose of the survey was to test the viability of qualification supply structured according to

‘occupational families’, included within the PHARE VET RO 9405 project. The results of research

were quantified through the so-called program opportunity indexes on the labour market. This was

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the first research which aimed at assessing the correlation between the educational supply of TVET

schools, included within the PHARE VET Programme, and the labour market demand.

Labour Market Survey – Final Report II (delivered by “Protector AS” Social Research Institute

through PHARE VET RO 9405 Programme).

The research was a comprehensive one, for the entire structure of occupations included in the

Romanian Register of Occupations and it sorted information divided by the future development

regions, without claiming to be representative at this level. Also, it represented an attempt to make a

comparative approach between the demand expressed by companies and perception of this demand

expressed by schools and graduates.

1998

Survey on the Romanian labour market and connotations on the manpower supply trained by

technical and vocational education and training (TVET) (delivered by Euro-In Consulting CAN

Veneto” in 1998, through PHARE VET RO 9405 Programme).

The survey provided cohort based analysis model, at national level and a forecast for 5 years (1997-

2002) for inputs and outputs from the educational system. For the first time after 1990, the method

and the tools of tracer study were tested and applied, measured after 21 months since graduation.

Also, the survey was based on testing and applying a questionnaire template for company survey, in

order to identify the labour market demand by occupations, in terms of supplies and workflows.

2003

Survey for establishing the TVET needs through pre-university education for 2010, based on the

analysis of the labour market dynamics recorded at regional level, focused on Center region.

The survey was carried out in 2003 by the National Institute for Scientific Research in the field of

Labour and Social Protection (INCSMPS) and it was funded by NCTVETD from its own budget.

The survey was structured in 3 stages, according to the following purposes:

STAGE 1: analysis of local economy and regional labour market trends from the perspective

of year 2010 (case study, Center Region)

STAGE 2: design of a methodology for forecasting training needs through TVET, according

to labour market needs, from the perspective of year 2010 (case study, Center Region)

STAGE 3: design of patterns for expanding the methodology for forecasting technical and

vocational training needs at the level of all regions.

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The survey includes economic development projections by sectors, at Center Region level, for the

period 2003-2010 based on macro-economic modelling and development scenarios. Also, the list of

the most frequent 20 jobs indicated by the interviewees as having the biggest number of employees

within the surveyed companies was drafted, and also the list of most frequent jobs in the past year

employments.

2005

Forecast surveys regarding labour market, delivered from the perspective of 2013 TVET supply

estimate in correlation with labour market demand

These surveys were carried out in 2005, within the PHARE TVET 2002 Project for 7 out of the 8

development regions (leaving out Bucharest- Ilfov Region which was not included within the social

and economic cohesion program). The survey was structured alongside main 3 components,

according to the following purposes:

Analysis of social-economic progress

Investigation carried out through company-based survey of short-term trends and

employers’ perception regarding the qualification needs of the labour force

Estimates for the labour force demand at regional level, per economic activities and

occupational profiles, for 2013.

The survey carried out a projection for 2003-2013 interval for potential demand, structure of

employment and demand-supply balance according to economic activities (NACE-based) and an

attempt to forecast evolutions based on groups of occupations. Also, this study includes the

company-based survey which amends the pessimistic trends induced by the macro-economic

modelling, indicating an increase of employment over a short-term period (6-12 months).

Some of the limits of this study consisted in the lack of inter-census statistical information

regarding the structure of employed population, in the methodological changes operated by the

National Institute for Statistics in collecting statistical data through surveys (AMIGO), overlapping

with lack of continuity and changes induced by the transition which affected the period under

scrutiny.

Taking into consideration the nature of the sample companies, without statistical representativeness

at regional and county level, the data resulted from the survey could only be used as a general trend,

without any opportunity to quantify and compare at inter-regional and inter-county level.

2007

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Labour market surveys carried out in 2007, within the PHARE TVET 2004 Project aimed at

shaping a pattern for a comprehensive analysis of the labour market, structured in 3 parts, as

follows:

PART 1

Comparative analysis of the Romanian social-economic situation against other UE Member States,

using Eurostat data;

PART 2

Inter-regional study based on statistical data from formal sources, and also based on the results of

company-based surveys;

PART 3

The intra - regional study based on company surveys, supplemented with statistical data from

formal and administrative sources.

These surveys allowed a new methodological approach which consisted in a comparative analysis

of a set of relevant indicators regarding the demographic, economic, labour market, vocational

education and training system context, performed at European, national, regional and county level.

The studies include also the results of surveys organized among employers from all the 8 regions

and all counties, but these could not be supplemented with data coming from administrative sources

(National Agency for Employment) regarding the evolution of the number of unemployed and

available jobs according to the occupational structure provided by the Romanian Register of

Occupations , which limited the analyses and correlations proposed with the other elements of the

study.

2011

Forecast surveys regarding labour market, delivered from the horizon of 2013 and 2020

perspective for TVET supply.

These forecast survey was carried out in 2011, with the support of the ESF through SOPHRD,

within the project “Linking initial VET provision with labour marked demands”

The forecast survey was structured on 2 main components:

− Projection of labour demand and demand for training in the medium and long term

perspective

− Enterprise Survey on the short term labour demand (6-12 months)

The forecast survey estimate, from the horizon of 2013 and also in the perspective of 2020, the

evolution of the labour market demand at national and regional level, in all development regions.

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The forecast study included a projection of the potential labour demand, replacement demand,

available jobs and training demands at national and regional level.

Enterprise Survey provided information based on the data collected on a representative sample at

national level comprising 3836 companies. This analysis focused on two main dimensions: past and

future developments of the enterprise activities and problems occurred in the process of matching

the skills demand and supply, with a focus in young graduates. Both dimensions of enterprise

survey provided essential indications to forecast the short term evolution of the skills demand and to

identify areas and reasons where the skills supply does not match the demand. Thus, the analysis

focused on the structure and evolution of the number of employees at company level, on the

recruitment practices and problems, on the skills and labour shortages, recruitment of young

graduates, employees likely to retire in the next 12 months etc.

4.1. Methodological aspects regarding the identification of the forecasted labour force demand

Information regarding the labour force demand is essential within the forecasting process of

educational supply planning. Unfortunately, the educational supply planning exercise has not

benefited from medium-term forecasts of the labour force demand, and this forced the Ministry of

Education and NCTVETD to proceed with carrying out their own surveys. As underlined above, the

surveys carried out were constrained from the methodological point of view, and also due to the

lack of some relevant data and information.

Given these conditions, the methodology being used is a module-based one and consists in

corroborating data and information collected from multiple sources, respectively the statistical data

analysis obtained from formal and administrative sources, company-based surveys, other relevant

information regarding business environment development.

Knowledge of all these aspects becomes even more important as the forecast management based on

early estimation of training needs involves the use of widely recognized methodologies. The

debates over methodological developments continue, given the limits of tools used for collecting

information and the methods for analysis.

4.1.1. Information and data regarding labour force demand which are relevant for TVET

planning

The relevant information for planning the vocational training supply is the following:

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A. Medium term labour market demand foreseen

Purpose:

Foreseeing vocational training needs over a medium term, in order to substantiate

forecasts for the vocational training supply provided by TVET

Indicators and level of detail:

Labour force demand foreseen, detailed by sectors and sub-sectors of economic

activity, levels of education and occupations;

Labour force demand foreseen, structured according to: replaced demand, expanded

demand and their resultant;

Labour market supply detailed by sectors and sub-sectors of economic activity,

levels of education and occupations;

The gap between demand and supply detailed by sectors and sub-sectors of

economic activity, levels of education and occupations.

B. The evolution and current situation of labour market demand

Purposes:

Supplementing information regarding medium-term labour force demand with

information regarding the trends induced from long series of data, coming from

formal, administrative sources and company based surveys, aimed at substantiating

the vocational training supply provided through TVET;

Validation of data regarding the estimated labour force demand over a medium term.

Indicators and level of detail:

Labour market demand recorded by sectors and sub-sectors of economic activity, levels of

education and occupations.

C. Short term labour force demand

Purposes:

Supplementing information regarding labour force demand over a medium term with information

regarding the short term demand (12 months) foreseen from company-based surveys;

Validation of data regarding the estimated labour force demand over a medium term.

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Indicators and level of detail:

Short term labour force demand, divided by sectors and sub-sectors of economic activity, levels of

education and occupations.

At the end of 2012 although we used all data and information available in order to carry out a solid

forecast in the perspective of 2020, changes often unpredictable in the occupational structure as

results of the economic crises compels us to a prudential approach of forecasts conclusions. In this

context, it is necessary to make systematic enterprise surveys and analyses of data available from

official and administrative sources in order to check and validate trends provided by medium-term

forecast.

4.1.2 Methodological approaches, tools

The model that NCTVETD proposes is a module-based one and it comprises two large categories

of information sources taken over from:

A. Forecast studies regarding labour market for foreseeing TVET supply from the horizon of

year 2013 and in the 2020 perspective, according to labour market demand;

B. Labour market analyses and surveys for supplementing information and also for

validating trends recorded within the forecast studies.

A. Forecast surveys regarding labour market for foreseeing TVET supply from the horizon of

year 2013 and in the 2020 perspective, according to labour market demand

Forecast studies performed in 2005

Forecast studies performed in 2005 estimate, from the perspective of 2013, the evolution of the

labour market demand at regional level, in 7 of the 8 development regions. For the 8th

region,

Bucharest-Ilfov, the study shall be performed in 2008.

The methodology for the study started from the experience gathered by various countries in

designing labour market evolutions and from analysing their impact on technical and vocational

education and it capitalized on Romanian experiences, some of them having been previously

mentioned.

The following approaches and tools were used within the process of designing regional

development projections:

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1. macro-economic approaches (analysis of dynamics and structural changes of GDP and GVA,

analysis of dynamics for domestic and foreign investment, analysis of the impact that various

macro-economic phenomena have over economy);

2. labour market analysis (analyses regarding dynamics and structural changes within the active

and employed population, based on statistical indicators and also based on data collected

through surveys performed among employers)

3. prospective analyses performed with 2 types of tools: recursive econometric models and

qualitative analyses among employers;

4. economic sectors analyses (demographic analyses, dynamics of different economic sectors and

the impact to the labour force demand)

5. regional analyses with local details.

The projections for labour force demand were based on 3 scenarios for the evolution of regional

economy structured by Sectorial and occupational level:

1. first scenario (pessimistic) of extrapolating the trends of the previous period (1993-2002)

2. second scenario (moderate) of sustained economic growth, based on foreign investments in

updating technology and introducing IT based systems, with high rates of labour

productivity and a declining employment

3. third scenario (optimistic) of sustained economic growth, yet with moderate rates of labour

productivity and a slight increase of employment.

A normative projection method was used in designing the second and the third scenarios, taking

over as economic growth targets the values projected at national level through the National

Development Plan 2007-2013. The assumption was maintaining a steady contribution from the 7

regions to the economic growth, and the variables used were productivity and employment.

Forecast studies performed in 2011

Forecast studies performed in 2011 estimate, from the horizon of 2013 and also in the perspective

of 2020, the evolution of the labour market demand at national and regional level, in all

development regions.

The methodology built upon a combination of projection methods and techniques based on panel

econometric models and analytical methods, as there was a need for a high level of detailing the

results of estimations, because there were no relevant statistical data at the disaggregation level

requested by the projection.

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Mention should be made that the forecast methodology is similar to the one used by Cambridge

Econometrics in the forecast model used by CEDEFOP, and it includes some innovative approaches

generated by the much higher level of information detail requested.

The methodology included a projection of the potential labour demand (defined as estimated

employed population, resulted from the econometric modelling on panel data of the economic

dynamics – described through indicators of the internal and external gross investments and of the

gross value added, as well as of employment) during the forecast horizon. This level of potential

demand will be satisfied when the number of people actually employed is equal to the level of

employed population estimated as employed population need. The evolution of the potential

demand forecasted depends on the economic developments but on many other factors (e.g.

demographic factors, migration, qualitative match between the labour demand and supply etc.). The

potential demand forecasts provide a reference framework for the analysis of the demand structure

by activity sectors, occupations, qualification levels, training fields. The dynamics of the potential

labour demand (forecasted changes in the number and structure of employed population) also

provide indication on job creation or loss in the economy.

Another forecast component aimed at the replacement demand (defined as number of vacancies as

a result of an individual leaving the labour market due to retirement or other natural causes) during

the forecast horizon. We should mention that the values of this indicator were calculated based on

available data describing prior developments of economic structures related to the employed

population and the flows leaving the labour market by retirement. Moreover, the lack of detailed

information on the age structure of employed population lead to estimates by age groups, based on

assumptions which may be to some extent misleading and introduce a certain level of error in the

estimates. Therefore, such estimates should be considered with caution.

For occupations in the sub-group of skilled agricultural workers, the estimation of replacement

demand considered only the employed population, not other categories of workers (such as non-

remunerated family workers). This correction aimed at avoiding misleading conclusions based on a

false replacement demand for a disproportionately high number of elderly activating in the

subsistence agriculture2. On the other hand, we should not disregard the potential of this sector,

which claims that part of the aged workforce which that will leave the subsistence agriculture field

should be replaced by young farmers, trained for a competitive agriculture.

2 According to data provided by the Statistical Yearbook, in 2009 population employed in agriculture amounted for

almost 30% of the total employed population in Romania, while the sector contribution to the GVA achieved by the

natoinal economy is of approximately 7%. 40.5% of the population working in agriculture is represented by non-

remunerated family workers and more than 53.5% of the workers are self-employed. 20.1% were included in the 55-64

age group, while 15.9% belonged to the age group of 65 and over.

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The indicator of available jobs was estimated from the algebraic sum of the change in the potential

labour demand as compared to the beginning of the analysed period and the replacement demand.

This indicator may take positive values if there is an increase in the employed population during the

analysed period or if the forecast indicates a decrease in the employed population, but this decrease

is lower than the replacement demand.

The main methodological steps followed are:

1. Building the projection base. Collecting data necessary for the econometric estimation.

Preliminary processing of data necessary for the econometric estimation

2. Design of macroeconomic econometric model to estimate potential labour demand at national

level

3. Testing the macroeconomic econometric model using panel data to estimate potential labour

demand at national level

4. Design of evolution scenarios regarding explanatory variables in order to forecast the potential

labour demand at national level in the 2020 horizon.

Three types of evolution scenarios were considered for the variables included in the model which

proved to have significant impact on the employed population at national level.

The MODERATE scenario built upon the following assumptions:

- Evolution of gross value added (GVA) according to the National Commission of Prognosis

(Spring Prognosis 2011) for 2011-2013;

- For 2014 – 2020 the evolution of the gross value added was forecasted as follows: an annual

growth pace in industry of 1.0325, a pace of 1.0305 in construction an annual growth pace in

services of 1.0165 (values calculated as arithmetic mean of annual growth paces expected for 2011

– 2012). We anticipated that the divisions included in a branch follow the branch evolution trend.

For 2014-2020 we chose GVA growth paces lower than for 2013 as we wanted to consider the

economic crisis anticipated by specialists after 2013.

- For the labour cost evolution for 2009 and 2010 we considered the real values published by the

National Institute of Statistics (NIS), while for 2011-2020 we considered a constant annual growth

pace of 1.015.

- For the gross investment evolution we started from the annual growth pace for 2009 (0.76) for

overall industry calculated using NIS data - tempo online. Without other information available we

considered that this decrease was identical for each NACE division. For 2010 – 2020 we estimated

a linear trend of the variable based on the data observed for the entire period analyzed.

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For agriculture, as the information had a different structure, we developed a moderate scenario,

taking into consideration only the gross value added parameter.

The OPTIMISTIC scenario involved the following variations as compared to the

MODERATE scenario:

- in 2010 GVA registered a growth pace of 1.1 in industry as compared to 2009, a decrease pace of

0.9 in constructions, while for services 2010-2011 it maintained constant. For 2012-2013 the

forecasts of the National Commission of Prognosis are maintained, while for 2014-2020 we

considered annual growth paces as follows: 1.036 for industry; 1.044 for constructions and 1.032

for services (values calculated as arithmetic mean of annual growth paces expected for 2011 –

2013).

- Gross investments in 2010 register a growth pace of 1.15 as compared to 2009. For 2011- 2020

we estimated the linear trend of the variable.

For agriculture, the working assumptions were and decrease in the employment rate to

approximately 15% and an increase in the professionalization of workforce, and a decrease in the

subsistence activities in this economic branch.

The PESSIMISTIC scenario involved the following variations as compared to the

MODERATE scenario:

- GVA maintains the level forecasted for 2011 in 2014 - 2020. We also took into account the results

of the enterprise survey, which indicate that more than half of the employers interviewed consider

that Romania will not recover from the economic crisis before 2013.

- The labour cost in 2010 maintains the increase trend it had in 2009 as compared to 2008; for

2011-2020 we considered a constant annual growth pace of 1.015.

For agriculture we considered the trend observed for 2000-2008 would be maintained.

A distinct forecast targeted the evolution of the 18 NACE divisions (Rev.1) which were excluded

from the econometric model due to the lack of data. Therefore we assumed that the employed

population within these divisions will maintain the trend observed for 2000-2008.

Finally the model was adjusted by the error highlighted by the nowcast of total employed

population at national level for 2009 2010 with real values (errors were approx. 1-2%). As there is

no information on the model variables according to the necessary structure for 2009 and 2010, the

forecast data should be treated cautiously, especially for 2014-2020.

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The estimation of the training demand was made starting from the projection of the potential

demand in the moderate scenario using econometric model techniques in certain statistical

assumptions, which was afterwards distributed by training fields. Lack of statistical information on

the distribution of employment by economic activities, occupational sub-groups and training fields

was an important barrier in generating quality information. As a result, the use such information

without precaution might lead to substantial errors. Therefore, the training demand should be

viewed only as a guiding element as long as statistical information does not provide a detail level

that would allow for a more accurate estimation. Nevertheless, the transfer matrix used to convert

economic activities and occupations in training fields is a tool that can be easily used and the

estimates can be updated as more statistical information becomes available.

In order to measure the training demand we performed a transition from the labour demand to the

training demand based on the data provided by the field survey, by estimating employees’

distribution probability by occupations according to their TVET training fields. As available data

only allowed for projections in case of a match of major occupational sub-groups and NACE Rev2

sections, in order to detail manufacturing by divisions we used the structure by occupations and

economic activities according to the 2002 census. Assuming that the structure of employed

population by divisions within manufacturing has not changed from the last census, we applied this

structure to the results of the labour demand projection by major occupational sub-groups and

NACE sections.

B. Labour market analyses and surveys for supplementing information and also for validating

trends recorded within the forecast studies

Labour market analyses and surveys among employers are performed on an annual basis and they

make up, on one hand, a supplementary source of information for the forecast studies and, on the

other hand, they make up the information sources for validating forecasts and formulating potential

corrections. The results of labour market analyses and surveys are structured as follows:

Comparative analysis between Romania – EU Member States. This analysis provides

comparative information based on a set of benchmark indicators between Romania and other

European countries, Eurostat being the data source.

Comparative analysis at regional level, which comprises:

o inter-regional analysis, based on formal statistical data regarding some economic,

labour market indicators, demographic features and educational system features for

all the 8 development regions in Romania.

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o inter-regional analysis based on surveys performed within companies, undertaken

within all the 8 development regions, which supplements the findings resulted from

the analysis of formal statistical data;

o comparative analysis between the counties of each development region in

Romania, which comprises company-based surveys, supplemented by statistical data

coming from formal and administrative sources.

4.1.3 Limits and constraints

At the end of 2011, forecast analyses aimed at the occupational structure and the significant content

changes for some of the current occupations available on the labour market are still scarce, and this

does not allow a comprehensive and systematic approach. Next to the missing information and

comparable data, all the above mentioned fill in the picture of aspects that do not allow yet for the

model to be used in its entire complexity. Because of this, at least for the time being, it was only

possible to achieve some partial results. The lack of knowledge about evolution of occupations,

their skills structure as well as the human resources profiles required for sectoral development

represent a constraint in terms of carrying out a relevant forecast for theTVET supply.

It is also necessary to forecast training needs for social groups which run the risk of exclusion, like:

low qualified persons, extremely low income persons, disabled persons.

The main obstacles for the forecast studies regarding labour force demand from the perspective of

2013 and in the perspective of 2020 were: lack of basic information required within the modelling

process and inconsistency of information regarding the structure of occupational sub-groups and

level of education for active and employed. In this context, the studies provide a series of

information, without being able to provide a forecast which is relevant enough in quantitative terms

regarding the labour force demand divided by economic activities and occupational groups.

The review of the definition for some indicators and the changes resulted from the 2002 census led

to “gaps” within the available statistical data, which affected their degree of comparability. In this

context, no long series of unitary comparable data are available, which should allow the

identification of reliable trends. Also, it is difficult to extrapolate future trends, because of the

unusual dynamics of social-economic changes recorded within the period under scrutiny.

The company-based survey forecasts the labour force demand over a short term (6-12 months). In

order for the information provided by these surveys to become relevant for the medium-term labour

20

force demand, long series of data are required, resulted from the consistent application of the same

methodology.

In order to identify the labour force needs for the substantiation of initial vocational training supply,

county-based surveys are required.

For the forecast survey realised in 2011, should be mentioned from the very beginning that, even

though there was a group of experienced researchers in employment forecast techniques who used

scientific forecast instruments, the results are significantly affected by the lack of statistical

information detailed at local level, according to the structure requested by the project, both from the

content perspective (e.g. match of employment by economic division, major occupational groups

and training fields), and from the sustainability perspective. Moreover, they had to take into account

the methodological changes induced by the classifications amendments (for example, NACE Rev.1

was replaced by NACE Rev 2 and COR 2003 by COR 2011) and by the reduced length of the time

series used by the econometric model.

We should also indicate that the current global economic crisis generated economic phenomena

whose implications could not be taken into consideration due to the lack of information when the

first forecast calculations were undertaken. Other phenomena generated lasting effects which are

not even manifesting yet, and this brings major changes in the approach and solutions. Therefore it

is extremely difficult to define the dynamics and any forecast attempt, even a short term one is quite

risky.

The main difficulties faced in developing the projections are related to available data for

prognosis which did not meet our needs fully; more specifically:

For 1998-2008 the data on the employed population by economic activities at

national and levels follow the NACE Rev1 structure, while for 2009-2010 they

follow the CAEN Rev2 structure. We could not obtain the conversion of data

between the two classifications, therefore the projections used only data until 2008,

and the information for 2009-2010 is prognosis information.

Data on the employed population by major occupational sub-groups at county level

(2 digits) were available only for 2009 and 2010. For the rest of the period we only

obtained regional data. Therefore, the assumption was that the occupational

distribution of population by counties followed the breakdown scheme of 2009 and

2010.

There were no data available on the GDP (GVA), and Investments, broke down by

economic activities (NACE divisions) for 2009 and 2010, the first years of crisis,

21

when the evolution of these variables reversed as compared to the trend manifested

in the previous period considered. Therefore, projections do not have input data on

the GDP (GVA) or investments dynamics for the crisis years. For this period the

estimates used general economic information resulted from various economic

analyses.

The data obtained for the labour cost for 2009 and 2010 by economic activities

follow the NACE Rev2 classification, while the data for 1998-2008 follow the

NACE Rev1 classification.

The data on the distribution of employed population at regional and county levels

where the occupational groups and economic activities matched were available only

for the structure of major occupational sub-groups and NACE Rev2 sections and

only for 2009 and 2010.

Moreover, in order to estimate the training need by TVET qualification fields we would have

needed information on the TVET graduates employment by occupational and economic activities at

national and county levels. This could have helped in building a transfer pattern from the training

field to occupation. As such information was not available, a logical transfer matrix was used

instead and the working assumption was that the employed population goes by this pattern. The

information was checked and amended based on the enterprise survey findings, but its low volume

does not ensure acceptable representativeness of indicators used in the comparison.

Due to these shortcomings, there were many assumptions related to the evolution of variables

considered for the forecasts which, of course, has a dramatic impact on the quality and reliability of

the projections.

Mention should be made that the sources of data related to the employed population used for

developing the forecasts were the Household labour force survey (AMIGO), and the National

Institute for Statistics recommends cautious interpretation and use of these data; if the values are

lower than 114999 cases, they should be used carefully, as they have a low level of reliability, and

values below 6500 are unreliable due to the small number of cases observed. Therefore, these

limitations impact on the results of the projections achieved, especially when the results have a high

detail level.

4.2. Methodological aspects regarding strategic planning

22

The two-folded economic and social role of vocational education and training has implications in

the increase of economic competitiveness, employment and degree of social inclusion, and also in

consolidating active citizenship, in personal and professional development of learners.

In this context, the match between TVET supply and the requirements of the social-economic

development needs becomes extremely important.

In developing the model presented here, NCTVETD has capitalized on the experience acquired

during the first reform program undertaken between 1996-1998, regarding the substantiation of

TVET supply within the context of the territorial organization of the school network. The regional

centres set-up in 1997 represented a first attempt for de-centralizing the TVET supply planning,

provided that relevant data were available to inform such decision.

Since 2001, the methodological basis have been set down for designing and applying a multi-level

system for strategic planning, as a forerunner of the medium term forecast model for TVET supply.

As mentioned above, the purpose of this endeavour is to achieve a better match between the

educational supply and the development needs of a knowledge-based economy, in the context of

ensuring social and economic cohesion through:

a more comprehensive approach of the labour market, which takes into consideration early

forecast of training needs;

a larger contribution of social partners involved within the strategic mechanism for

participatory “planning”;

an integrated approach of vocational education and training, which includes the contribution

of higher education to regional development.

4.2.1 Strategic planning process for TVET supply

The planning process for TVET supply consists in designing the forecast for medium-term

educational supply over 5-7 years and it is based on three elements:

1. a comprehensive analysis of the TVET schooling capacity applied at local, county and

regional level in relationship with the foreseen labour force demand and with the aspirations

of the young people;

2. a common strategy, based on tasks undertaken by all partners involved, respectively social

partners, employers, members of the Sectoral Committees, schools, universities, local

authorities, Local Employment Agencies and other stakeholders;

3. monitoring and evaluation of actions planned within the strategy, in order to achieve the

strategic objectives.

4.

23

The first element is referring to the analysis of available resources and of those required in order to

adapt the initial vocational training supply to the labour market requirements. TVET school

network, human resources, physical and financial resources, partnerships between schools and

companies represent the main information that defines the TVET system ability to answer to the

labour force demand.

Fig. 3. Substantiation of the TVET supply

The second element is aimed at formulating priorities, objectives and actions required to adapt

TVET supply to the foreseen labour market demand. Also, this element is referring to partnership

development at all decision-making levels, with the purpose of taking the most appropriate

decisions for TVET development, and also to ensure commitment from all stakeholders towards the

objectives and actions planned for that purpose.

The third element is aimed at monitoring the implementation of actions planned for adapting the

educational supply to the labour market requirements and it provides the feed-back required for the

following planning cycle.

The process of updating and reviewing strategic documents designed from the horizon of year 2013

and in the 2020 perspective, takes place regularly at each 1-2 years. This regularity was determined

by the lack of relevant statistical data, which involves repeated validation of trends and foreseen

estimates. For 2012-2013, the goal is to create a full batch of relevant indicators and the

development of an appropriate statistical system.

Students

options Labour

force

demand

TVET &

Partners

resources

TVET

Supply

24

The strategic planning of initial vocational education and training supply is concluded, inter alia, by

the enrolment plan.

The efficiency of this planning, which takes into consideration regional distribution and also the

sectoral definition of the qualifications, is measured, between others, by the social and professional

insertion rate of graduates.

4.2.2 Methodological approaches, tools

The strategic planning of TVET supply uses the following documents:

Regional Education Action Plan (REAP) – carried out at regional level.

Local Education Action Plan (LEAP) – carried out at county level

School Action Plan (SAP) – carried out by the school unit at the local community level.

Regional Education Action Plan (REAP)

The purpose of REAP is to improve the match between the technical and vocational education

supply and the social-economic development needs at regional level and to increase the contribution

of higher education to regional development, from the horizon of year 2013 and in the 2020

perspective

REAP comprises:

the analysis of the regional context from the point of view of demographic, labour market

and economic evolutions and forecasts

the analysis of the capacity of technical vocational education and training system to answer

to the identified needs, through a diagnosis of the regional context;

priorities, targets and actions for TVET development at regional level;

the contribution of higher education to regional development.

The desk-research for REAP is carried out by analysing the following documents:

National Development Plan

National Strategy for Human Resources Development

Regional Development Plans;

Strategies and action plans regarding Vocational Education and Training

National Strategy for Employment.

The role of REAP is to provide a reference framework and to facilitate desk research for

developing and streamlining strategic documents from county and local level (LEAP, SAP).

Local Education Action Plan (LEAP)

25

The purpose of LEAP is to improve the match between TVET supply and the social-economic

development needs at county level, from the horizon of year 2013 and in the 2020 perspective

.

LEAP comprises:

the analysis of the county context

the analysis of the capacity of technical vocational education and training system to answer

to the identified needs, through a diagnosis of the county context;

priorities, targets and actions for TVET development at county level.

The role of LEAP is to provide a reference framework and to facilitate desk research for

developing SAP and to inform decisions taken for restructuring the TVET school network at county

level.

School Action Plan (SAP)

From the perspective of strategic planning, the purpose of SAP is to improve the match between

TVET supply and the social-economic development needs within the school area of action.

SAP, as a tool for planning TVET supply, comprises:

the analysis of the local context;

the analysis of the school unit capacity to answer to the training needs at the local

community level;

priorities, targets and actions needed for adapting the educational supply.

The role of SAP is to contribute to the increase of TVET quality, including the increase of the

social-professional insertion rate of TVET graduates.

REAP, LEAP and SAP are updated and reviewed on an annual basis using unitary methodological

support provided by the handbooks developed for this purpose. This endeavour contributes to the

increase of vertical coherence between the regional-county-local planning layers and also, it leads to

the increase of comparability for documents placed at the same level of planning.

The monitoring and evaluation of REAP, LEAP and SAP implementation are carried out based on a

general framework provided by the Handbook for monitoring and evaluation.

4.2.3. Limits and constraints

The main limit in forecasting the TVET supply is the use of a partially relevant economic

development demand -forecast. At the same time, the planning does not include a detailed analysis

of the training needs specific to the social groups at risk of marginalization.

26

Beside these limits of planning development, there are also a range of limitations in implementing

the REAP, LEAP and SAP, generated by the lack of resources in the TVET system and by the fact

that not all stakeholders at regional and local level undertook the objectives and planned actions.

The monitoring and evaluation of REAP, LEAP and SAP implementation are processes which

started in 2006, but the first unitary methodology was developed in 2007, later-on in 2011 were up-

dated the Methodologies for up-dating LEAPs and monitoring SAPs.

4.3. Institutional roles and responsibilities in the strategic planning of TVET

The decisional process includes advisory managerial structures organized at local, sectorial,

regional, county and local level, which contribute to finding the answers to the following

problems/questions:

WHAT types of qualifications can be achieved through the TVET system?

WHAT competences may the TVET graduates achieve?

WHERE is the enrolment for a specific qualification organized?

IS the TVET provided by a provider RELEVANT and COMPLIANT with the quality

assurance principles?

The first two issues are addressed by Sectorial Committees.

The issue of relevance of the provision from the point of view of the TVET school is on the agenda

of the following structures:

Regional Consortia

Local Committee for the Development of Social Partnerships

Schools Management Boards

The members and the responsibilities of the advisory managerial structures, according to the

decisional levels (regional, local and school level) are the following:

Regional Consortia

Regional Consortia are advisory managerial structures functioning as an interface between the

Regional Development Councils (RDC) and the institutions at county level with responsibilities in

the human resource development field. The Regional Consortia includes representatives of:

Regional Development Agency (RDA), County Councils, County Employment Agencies (CEA),

school inspectorates, social partners from the Local Committee for the Development of Social

Partnerships (LCDSP) and the Advisory Councils of CEA, NCTVETD.

Among the responsibilities of the Regional Consortia, we mention the following:

27

Updating, implementing and monitoring the REAP implementation;

Monitoring the LEAP implementation;

Assisting school inspectorates and the LCDSP in developing and implementing the LEAP;

Contributing to the development and the monitoring of the implementation of the Regional

Action Plan for Employment (PRAO).

Regional Consortia were established and function according to the terms of reference endorsed by

the Steering Committee of the PHARE Programmes for Economic and Social Cohesion.

Local Committees for Development of Social Partnerships (LCDSP)

The Local Committees for Development of Social Partnerships (LCDSP) are advisory managerial

structures that aim at improving the relevance and the quality of the TVET system, for the support

of school inspectorates. LCDSPs include representatives of: local authorities, County Employment

Agency, employer’s associations, trade unions, school inspectorates, NGOs.

Among the LCDSP responsibilities, we mention the following:

Updating and implementing the LEAP;

Monitoring School Action Plans (SAP);

Assisting school units in SAP development and implementation;

Analysing and endorsing the annual enrolment plan for TVET, at county level;

Endorsing the local component of the TVET curriculum.

The Local Committees for Development of Social Partnerships function according to the

Framework Regulation for the organization and operation approved by Order of Ministry of

Education and Research no. 3033/2001.

School Management Boards

As strategic documents at school level, the School Action Plans (SAP) are developed at the in a

consultation process with students, parents, local authorities and social partners and are approved by

the Management Board.

The social partners, members of the Management Board of a school, decide, on the basis of LEAP

and SAP recommendations, if the school proceeds with requesting the authorization for the

enrolment of a new qualification, if it is the case. The Romanian Agency for Quality Assurance in

the Pre-university Education (ARACIP) assesses the compliance of learning conditions against the

minimum standards in force which, inter alia, also include provisions regarding the Vocational

Training Standard (SPP) and then proposes to the Ministry of Education the authorization for the

28

provision of a new qualification, on the basis of the requests made by the school unit. The

enrolment plan of the school unit includes qualifications for which an authorization was obtained.

The Management Boards are set up and operate according to the Regulation for the Operation and

Organization of Pre-university Education approved by Order of Ministry of Education and

Research no. 4925/2005 with subsequent legal changes occurred.

5. Implications of the TVET strategic planning over the school network

In order to meet the forecasted labour force demand, REAP and LEAP strategic planning

documents make recommendations regarding the territorial distribution of the educational offer in

the TVET schools network. These recommendations are based on analyses regarding the available

resource of the TVET schools network and the need of a balanced territorial distribution. Through

the recommendations made in the strategic documents, the stakeholders aim at optimizing the

allocation of resources, by focusing the training provision on reliable school units, capable of

ensuring a good vocational training for future graduates, observing at the same time the principles

of equal access of young people to vocational education and training.

In rural areas, the main objective is to ensure access to a quality education, considering a wide

range of options and in order to support the diversification and the increase of rural economy

competitiveness.

The school network should be designed based on recommendations included in REAPs, LEAPs,

SAPs, as a result of strategic planning.

6. Implications of strategic planning of TVET provision

The shift of TVET schools towards vocational training domains and towards vocational

qualifications which are demanded on the labour market, with few words TVET schools being

demand driven require actions aiming at ensuring the necessary resources.

For teachers, actions regarding the continuous professional development need to be implemented,

aiming at updating their competences in accordance with the new qualifications included in the

educational provision, as well as with the new technological developments in the industry.

29

Actions for upgrading the learning conditions in accordance to the new skills required by the new

TVET provision request procurement of didactic equipment specific to both basic and specialized

training. Essential is the ensure first a sustainable schools network, based on which to decide which

equipment is remaining specific to a school and which one will be shared by students from different

schools, organised in a network. Crucial is not to forget the importance of work based learning and

all these actions to be done after careful organisation of the practical stages into the enterprises.

All the above, like school networks and vital school-enterprise cooperation, are arguments for

eliminating unjustified overlaps in the training provision which lead to an expensive TVET system.

(The organization and functioning of the TVET system is anyway more expensive than that of the

academic education system).

6.1. The enrolment plan as an element of ensuring the relevance of the TVET system

Every year, school inspectorates develop the enrolment plan at county/city (Bucharest) level,

according to proposals made by schools. The schools make proposals for the annual schooling plan

only at the end of a consultation process with social partners and once they are approved by the

Management Board.

School inspectorates organize the consultation of Local Committees for the Development of Social

Partnerships (LCDSP), which analyse and endorse the enrolment plan on the basis of

recommendations included in LEAP. The draft versions of enrolment plans, approved by the

Management Board of the School Inspectorates are sent to the Ministry of Education. On the basis

of these documents, the Ministry of Education proposes to the Government the approval of the

enrolment figures.

The annual schooling plan is proposed according to the provisions of the Methodology of the

Ministry of Education. The process of development and approval of the enrolment plan is presented

in Annex 2.

6.2. The relevance of educational provision as a quality assurance element in the TVET

system: analysis of social-professional insertion of graduates

The labour market relevance of the TVET provision includes the analyzing of the social-

professional insertion of graduates.

30

The methodology for monitoring the social-professional insertion of graduates was designed by

NCTVETD with the support of experts from various institutions. The methodology was piloted in

2007 and 2008 at regional and local level with the support of Phare TVET programs for TVET

development and approved by the Ministry of Education. Based on this methodology, several

School Inspectorates and County Educational Resource Centres monitored the social-professional

insertion of graduates through projects co-financed by the European Social Found within the HRD

Sectoral Operational Program 2007-2013.

The results of the insertion analysis are used for updating REAP, LEAP and SAP, by redefining

priorities and targets.

31

REAP : medium term TVET

supply forecast (regional level)

Ministry of Education

Drow-up Strategies and

Educational policies

Regional Consortium Updating REAP

Monitoring REAP & LEAP

County School Inspectorate

LEAP Approval

Local Committees for Development

of Social Partnerships Updating LEAP

Monitoring LEAP & SAP

TVET school

SAP Approval

SAP: institutional development

and improving the quality of the

TVET supply (local level)

LEAP: medium term TVET

supply forecast (county level)

STRATEGIC PLANNING OF THE TVET SUPPLY ANNEX 1

Regional Development

Council

REAP Approval

School Board Updating and monitoring SAP

Social Dialog Comision Approval Strategies and

Educational policies

32

PLANNING THE ENROLMENT PLAN Annex 2

REAP: vocational training

needs, medium and long term

targets at the regional level

LEAP: vocational training

needs, medium and long term

targets at the county level

SAP: vocational training needs,

medium and long term targets at

the level of the territorial area

of school action

Ministry of Education

Approval of the enrolment plan

County School Inspectorate

Draw-up the enrolment plan at the

county level

TVET school

Proposals on the enrolment plan

Regional Consortium

Monitoring the annual enrolment plan,

based on the REAP targets

Local Committees for

Development of Social

Partnerships Endorsing and monitoring the annual

enrolment plan, based on the LEAP

targets

Social Partners, Administrative

Board

Additional information specific to the

school action area

33

34