Master Class 2015

Aon Risk Solutions Global Risk Consulting | Captive & Insurance Management

Aon Guernsey Master Class: Perspectives in Risk

Thursday, 21 May 2015

Welcome

Paul Sykes, Aon Cameron Murray, Lloyd’s

About Aon

Aon Risk Solutions | Global Risk Consulting | Captive & Insurance Management 3

Aon Global Risk Consulting

Aon Risk Solutions .

Aon Plc

Aon Captive & Insurance Management

Aon Insurance Managers (Guernsey) Limited

John Turner Chairman, ARS UK & Americas

Rory Moloney CEO, AGRC

Peter Mullen CEO, Captive & Insurance Management

Paul Sykes MD, Aon Guernsey

Aon Risk Solutions | Global Risk Consulting | Captive & Insurance Management 4

A&A Bain Hogg

Minets

June 2010 Aon begins corporate

sponsorship of ManU

PCCs

May 2011 ManU wins champion-

ship

August 2011

DHL becomes first training kit sponsor for ManU

October 2011

Aon Begins Global "Pass It On" Initiative

Insurance Linked

Securities

July 2012 Aon announces in 2014, it will be the

title sponsor of ManU's Business Network & the

Manchester United Foundation

Kelvin Re Limited

July 2014 Chevrolet

becomes main sponsor featured on ManU’s jerseys while Aon retains branding rights to the team’s

Aon Training Complex until 2021

1996 1997 2006 2014 2015

Aon Guernsey’s game changers

Rated reinsurance

2006

ICCs

The Evolving Insurance Market – a brokers perspective John Turner, Aon Risk Solutions

The Evolving Insurance Market: A broker’s perspective John Turner Chairman, Aon Risk Solutions UK & Americas

21 May 2015

Aon UK Limited Proprietary & Confidential

Global Risk Management Survey 2015 Respondents

1,148 Risk Decision Makers 28 Industry Sectors 60 Countries 52% Privately Owned 35% Public Ownership Remainder were Governmental or Not for Profit Organisations


Top 10 risks…

1

Economic slowdown/

recovery

3

Increasing competition

2

Regulatory/ legislative changes

4

Damage to reputation/

brand

8

Commodity price risk

6 Failure to innovate/

meet customer

needs

7

Business interruption

5

Failure to attract or

retain talent

9 Cash flow/

liquidity risk

10

Political risk/ uncertainties

2013 2015

Uninsurable Risk

Insurable Risk

Partially Insurable Risk

1


brand

3


2

Economic slowdown/

slow recovery

4


8

Third party liability


meet customer

needs

7


5


retain talent

9 Computer

crime/ hacking/ viruses/

malicious codes

10

Property damage


Projected top 10 risks…

1


brand

3


2

Economic slowdown/

slow recovery

4


8

Third party liability


meet customer

needs

7


5


retain talent

9 Computer


malicious codes

10

Property damage

2015 Projected 2018

1


3


2

Economic slowdown/

slow recovery


meet customer

needs

8

Commodity price risk

6


retain talent

7 Computer


malicious codes

5


brand

9

Political risk / uncertainties

10 Growing

burden and consequences of corporate governance/ compliance

Uninsurable Risk

Insurable Risk

Partially Insurable Risk


Observations

• Fully insurable risks in the top 10 have fallen from 6 in the 2009 survey to 3 in the 2015 survey.

• By 2018 it is projected that none of the top 10 risks identified will be fully insurable.

• Traditionally insurable risks which have appeared in the top 10 since 2009 (Property Damage, Third Party Liability and Business Interruption) will have fallen away by 2018.

• Cyber risk has emerged as a top 10 risk in 2015 for the first time.

• The wider economic environment heavily influences perceived risk. Economic slowdown cited as the number one risk from 2009 to 2014, still second highest rated risk in 2015.


Why is the market where it is today?


Key Drivers for the Insurers

• Grow shareholder value

• Generate sustainable growth Diversification (Products and Territories) Innovation / Product Development M&A Activity

• Driving operational efficiency/Cost cutting Reinsurance Costs Capital Management

• Attract and Retain Talent

• Remain relevant

• Economic Environment Low interest rates Business Growth


Current outlook

• Very competitive soft market conditions in all lines of business.

• Markets are; Keen to retain good risks Being pressurised to think differently Being pressurised to broaden coverage, remove onerous conditions and innovate Now is a great time to ask!

• Reinsurance industry capital continues to build with material alternative capital available.

• Alternative capital has helped to drive catastrophe reinsurance risk transfer costs down.

• Underwriters’ approach to buying reinsurance is more polarised.

• Underwriting performance remains strong, given low global catastrophe losses.

• Investment returns have been resilient, despite the impact of low interest rates.

• Headline ROE has been stable at around 10% - 14% for the last three years.

• M&A Activity is prolific


Summary

• Client Risks are becoming more complex and ever evolving with ability to risk transfer reducing.

• Insurance marketplace is very competitive with an abundance of capacity.


The role of the Broker

• Understanding of the clients’ business and risk management goals and objectives

• Use of data to best position the client with the market

• Innovation – Development of new products / services that are relevant to the changing risk landscape

• Look to support the building of open, long-term, tripartite relationships with the market

• Assistance in the development of market awareness and market relationships

• Provision of broad risk management support for non transferable risks

• Support business goals and provide networking opportunities for B2B activity

• Creation of a proactive ‘can do’ environment where access to the right solutions is facilitated


Questions…….


Global Risk Trends: Captive usage today and in the future Peter Mullen, Aon Captive Insurance Management

Prepared by Aon Risk Solutions Global Risk Consulting

Guernsey Master Class 2015 Global Risk Trends: Captive Usage Today and in the Future Presented by: Peter Mullen CEO Aon Captive and Insurance Management

Aon Risk Solutions | Global Risk Consulting Proprietary & Confidential 19

Survey overview

Aon’s 2015 Global Risk Management Survey, the fifth of its kind since 2007, is designed to offer organizations the insights necessary to compete in an increasingly complex business environment.

Conducted biennially, the survey gathered input from 1418 respondents at public and private companies of all sizes around the world.

The 2015 findings from the survey, which was conducted in 11 languages and completed by respondents from multiple countries, underscored that companies are grappling with new risks and that there are differences of opinion on how to best prioritize and respond to them.

The survey covers the following topics: − Top risk concerns companies are facing today and in the future − How companies identify and assess risk − Approach to risk management and board involvement − Risk management functions − Insurance markets − Risk financing − Multinational programs − Captives


Respondent profile

Aon Risk Solutions | Global Risk Consulting Proprietary & Confidential 21 Aon Risk Solutions | Global Risk Consulting Proprietary & Confidential 21

Top ten risks


Global Risk Management Survey risk ranking


Global Risk Management Survey all risks ranking


Risks increasing in prominence


Lower than Aon expected


Difference in Risk Perception


27

Top 10 risks Underwritten in Captives


28

Reasons for Captives


29

Projected top 10 risks to be written in captives-next five years


Changes in retention levels

Please indicate how retentions for your current programs have changed compared to the prior year. (Consider only the retention for any one loss. If multiple retentions apply, chose the one most reflective of your overall program.)

Stayed the same Decreased Increased

Changing Safety Culture – Perception vs Reality

Dean Clamp, Wincanton

© Wincanton plc 2015. All rights reserved

Changing safety culture Perception vs reality

33

Agenda

• Wincanton business • Changing safety culture

• Perception vs reality • Project Opportunity

• Framework • Colleague engagement

• Measured impact

Wincanton today

34

employees

200+ locations

15,500 Operating responsibilities for vehicles

3,600 Square feet of warehousing

13 million

Total 13/14 12/13

£m £m

Revenue 1098.3 1086.8 + 1.1%

Operating profit 48.0 45.3 + 6.0%

Financial performance Recent successes

35

Our operating segments

Specialist businesses Our specialist businesses have leading market positions and provide expertise in records management, fleet solutions and container logistics

Contract logistics We provide diverse solutions in contract logistics across a range of market sectors. Strong reputation in operational excellence and delivery

Containers Energy

WRM Defence

Construction

FMCG Retail

Milk & bulk

Pullman

36

What was the problem ?

Although Wincanton has been through many years of progression in safety, we had started to slow down due to a number of factors but mainly that we had achieved as much as possible through process and it was now time for a step change.

• Leadership recognition that there was limited engagement; • didn’t see progress • didn’t feel engaged

• Plateau in terms of safety performance; • perception we were the best we could be • all about mitigation and evidencing

• Compliance was king; • audits checking process

Our Safety vision

37

Our UK & Ireland Health & Safety vision:

“To achieve a ‘Zero Accident Target’ culture where every colleague values safety through their everyday behaviour”

38

Our STAR values for Health & Safety

Stop

Think

Assess

React

To work in a recognised safe way that keeps myself and my

colleagues safe

To challenge unsafe acts and behaviour

To show real safety leadership by the way that

I act (lead by example)

Always strive for continuous improvement in safety

Adopt the STAR philosophy for a safer environment

for everyone

Unlocking potential 39 www.wincanton.co.uk 6

THE CHALLENGE….there is a journey we need to make

Behaviour Driven

By Natural Instincts

Driven by Management

Driven by Self

Driven by Teams?

?

?

?

Compliance Driven

Inju

ry R

ate

Dependant Phase Independent Phase Interdependent PhaseReactive Phase

Unsafe who cares as long as we’re not

caught

Reactive Safety is important, we do a lot every time we have an accident

Compliant we have systems in place to

manage all hazards

Pro-active we work on the problems that

we still find

Fully Engaged H&S is how we do business

round here

•Inclusive approach •Safety seen as a profit centre •New ideas are welcomed •Challenging targets set by colleagues

•The authorities said it was OK •Of course we have accidents, it’s a dangerous business •Discipline the person who had the accident!

•Resources are available to fix things before an accident •Colleagues getting involved in safety planning •Procedures are “owned” by the colleagues

•We’ve done it! •lots and lots of audits •Health & Safety advisers chasing statistics

Our culture ladder

•We are serious, but why don’t they do what they’re told? •Endless accident investigations •You have to consider the conditions under which we are working

Increased Engagement

Increased Trust and Accountability

40

Initial site visit and visioning session

Senior sign off on ALL accident investigations

Site GM to attend weekly conference

call if LTI at site

All managers given Safety targets

Devise a risk profiled ‘Site Safety Plan’

Create a ‘Site Safety Pledge’ that

all sign up to

Safety performance discussed in all appraisals

Safety questions in ALL interviews

Accident Investigation

and Root Cause training

Project opportunity – 10 point plan

Group HSE committee review

on/off site

41

Behavioural change

Lift experiment

• As Leaders we control the climate in our H&S culture

• Never under estimate the power of non spoken communication

• Making perception reality

42

Opportunity

• We now deliver an improved programme called opportunity that focuses on the concept of perception vs reality and encourages managers to validate what they believe is happening.

• Through workshops that challenged the barriers to working safely and were aimed at solutions.

• Colleagues are encouraged to feedback on issues in the workplace.

• Engagement through personal letters home, near miss reporting and safety games have had a big impact.

• Tough measures around accident reporting and changes in responsibility and accountability has ensured that the site leadership have got closer to incidents and in turn been in a better position to solve them.

44

Colleague Engagement

45

Wheel of Fortune

Aim

Strike it Rich Variation on Near Miss

Bingo “What's a HOT SPOT

NOT “

Safety Bingo

Aim is to create a safety conscious

workforce & environment

Colleague engagement

46

Impact

• The impact of Opportunity and our step change in our approach has been significant

• 40% reduction in lost time accidents 13/14 to 14/15 from 495 to 270

• 1,700 less days lost resulting in a benefit of approx £215k

• Claims at an all time low with high expectations of better performance

• Performance is best in sector (benchmark statistics)

• Engaged executive team

• Safety 1st on all agendas

Notified Incurred Avg Value2012-13 345 £5,116,780.47 £14,831.252013-14 319 £4,331,717.35 £13,579.052014-15 254 £2,891,229.58 £11,382.79

47

© Wincanton plc 2015. All rights reserved

Thank you

Thank you

Captives – Emerging Regulatory & Fiscal Trends

Clive Hassett, ACE

AON GUERNSEY MASTERCLASS 2015

Captives – Emerging Regulatory & Fiscal Trends

May 21 2015

Captives under the Microscope

ACE Multinational Risk

Fronting Insurers have full responsibility for regulatory and fiscal compliance and are themselves more closely regulated

Policy coverages and premiums must pass scrutiny

Premiums must be supported by robust underwriting analytics

Premiums & taxes must strictly follow contractual terms and regulatory requirements

Strong belief by ACE that captives will remain a major vehicle for risk management

A more intrusive and aggressive regulatory environment is developing around the conduct of multinational companies

At the most basic level ..

But there is a much bigger picture emerging….



OECD – Base Erosion & Profit Shifting (BEPS )

Transfer Pricing (TP)

Permanent Establishment (PE)

Diverted Profit Tax (DPT)

Country by Country Reporting (CBCR)

Diverted Profit Tax (DPT)

28/05/2015 ACE Multinational Risk 53

Interim Guidance issued by HMRC – March 2015 v1

“Do the non-tax financial benefits ….outweigh the financial benefit of the tax reduction ?”

“As the group has not reinsured externally, it is reasonable to assume that the UK company could keep the risk on it’s own balance sheet.”

Specific section on Captives ( Page 52 with examples and diagrams)

Regulatory Activity – Premium Tax Developments


Premium tax audits of European Insurers companies are now routine

Premium tax audits of our clients are now routine

Premium allocations starting to be questioned

Growing cooperation between EU tax authorities



831(b) captives labelled a “charade” by IRS and adds to “Dirty Dozen” hit list

…….creating and “selling” to the entities …. poorly drafted “insurance” …policies to cover ordinary business risks or esoteric, implausible risks for exorbitant “premiums..,”

Securitas verdict November 2014

FATCA - USA sourced risks

Summary

28/05/2015 ACE Multinational Risk 56

Much more attention must be paid to basic insurance transactions

Captives arrangements should be viewed in a wider corporate context, beyond insurance

Is the time right to consider alternative risk retention strategies that do not involve captives ?

AON GUERNSEY MASTERCLASS 2015

Thank You

May 21 2015

UK Economics – Uncertain times ahead

Fabrice Montagné, Barclays plc

UK Economics Research

UK Economics Uncertain times ahead May 2015

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 32.

Fabrice Montagne Chief UK and Senior European Economist +44 (0)20777 33277 [email protected]

Global Outlook

60

Global Economic Outlook

61

Source: Barclays Research - Note: Weights used for real GDP are based on IMF PPP based GDP, and weights used for consumer prices are based on IMF nominal GDP (5yr centered moving average). (*) IMF PPP-based GDP weights for 2013.

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016Global 3.4 3.4 3.8 2.8 2.4 2.9

Advanced 1.6 2.1 2.1 1.4 0.2 1.5Emerging 4.8 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.6 5.0

BRIC 5.9 5.1 5.6 3.9 4.4 3.5Americas 1.9 2.0 2.3 3.8 3.4 4.4

United States 2.4 2.7 2.5 1.6 0.0 2.0Asia/ Pacific 5.6 5.7 5.8 2.7 1.6 2.1

Japan 0.0 1.0 1.6 2.6 0.6 0.4Emerging Asia 6.5 6.4 6.5 2.8 1.8 2.4

China 7.4 6.8 6.6 2.0 1.2 1.6Europe and Africa 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0

Euro area 0.9 1.5 1.7 0.4 0.2 1.1United Kingdom 2.6 2.7 2.2 1.5 0.3 1.5

Poland 3.3 3.1 3.2 0.1 -0.7 1.0Russia 0.5 -4.0 -1.0 7.8 16.4 8.8

Consumer prices

% annual change

Real GDP

% annual change

The weakness in other key EM economies where falling commodity prices play a role in the significant downward revisions are risks. In particular, we now forecast recessions in Russia and Brazil.

This contrasts with expectations for accelerating growth in India and many other economies in EM Asia, as well as the decent growth in some of the smaller Central European economies bordering the euro area.

But with widespread weakness in commodity-dependent economies of LatAm and elsewhere in EM (CIS, MENA, Africa), we expect EM growth to slow to just 4.5% in 2015.

Lower oil prices’ redistribution effect from oil producers to oil consumers keeps developed economies in the lead of the global recovery, EM-DM growth differential is the narrowest since 2000

62

Global bond yield forecasts

63

Global FX forecasts Foreign Exchange 1 Apr 2015

Spot reference Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16

Developed Economies

EUR/USD 1.07 1.05 1.00 0.98 0.95

USD/JPY 120.17 121.00 121.00 121.00 118.00

GBP/USD 1.48 1.42 1.39 1.38 1.36

USD/CHF 0.97 1.03 1.07 1.08 1.11

USD/CAD 1.27 1.28 1.30 1.32 1.36

AUD/USD 0.76 0.77 0.73 0.72 0.72

NZD/USD 0.74 0.73 0.70 0.68 0.67

EUR/JPY 129 127.05 121.00 118.58 112.10

EUR/GBP 0.73 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.70

EUR/CHF 1.04 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.05

EUR/SEK 9.27 9.50 9.30 9.10 8.90

EUR/NOK 8.71 9.00 8.90 8.80 8.70

GBP/JPY 177.4 171.8 168.1 167.0 160.1

GBP/CHF 1.43 1.46 1.49 1.49 1.50

GBP/CAD 1.87 1.82 1.81 1.82 1.85

GBP/AUD 1.94 1.84 1.90 1.92 1.88

GBP/NZD 1.99 1.95 1.98 2.03 2.03

AUD/JPY 91.3 93.2 88.3 87.1 85.0

AUD/NZD 1.02 1.05 1.04 1.06 1.07

The euro area

• A stronger boost from oil as the savings rate rises less than expected. Household consumption is now expected to grow by 1.6% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, a pace not achieved since 2007.

• In addition to the favourable effect of lower oil prices, the euro area should benefit from a significant improvement in monetary and financial conditions, which have reached their easiest level since the start of EMU.

• Business investment has remained subdued so far and enterprises have probably taken advantage of the improvement in the terms of trade to boost profit margins rather than expand fixed investment, given still large excess capacities and subdued business confidence. We expect a more gradual recovery over the next two years.

65

Fixed capital formation and EC business climate Financial Conditions Index

Source: Barclays Research

The recovery should gain momentum in 2015-16 (1)


-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15Gross Capital Formation (lhs) EC business climate (rhs)

% y/ y

Barclays fc. for Q1 15 and Q2 15

Deviation from mean (in stdev)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Real exchange rate Real short ratesReal long rates Corporate bond spreadsCredit Condition Barclays FCI

UK 2015 General Election Government to resume fiscal consolidation and call a EU referendum

66

* Please see out full report published on 23 February 2015

https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2114593

• Conservative beat projection while SNP wins all but 3 seat in Scotland • Conservatives win 331 seats (+28 vs previous; 8 seats majority); Labour and Lib Dem face major

upsets with only 232 (-25) and 8 (-48) seats.

• SNP is the other winner, taking all but 3 out of 59 seats in Scotland.

• A large victory does not mean a large majority • The government will have to be careful to preserve support inside but as well, at the margin, outside

the party in order to limit the influence of rebel backbencher.

• That said, the party is overwhelmingly in favour of spending driven fiscal consolidation hence it looks like D.Cameron will be able to implement its campaign pledge.

• The government will also call a EU in/out referendum by 2017, after having renegotiated ” UK membership with other EU heads of state and government.

• Short term cheer to be followed by a medium term chill • Resumption of fiscal austerity and EU referendum will create serious headwinds to business and

household confidence. Recent data has also revealed some cracks in the otherwise rather flattering economic outlook.

• Against this backdrop, we highlight the risk relating to an EU in/out referendum: results are always uncertain and usually conditional to factors unrelated to the actual question.

UK 2015 General Election Government to resume fiscal consolidation and call a EU referendum

67

Source: IFS, Barclays Research

Consolidation plans breakdown

UK 2015 General Election

Consolidation plans compared

Source: IFS, Barclays Research

68

Government to resume fiscal consolidation • Balance the structural current budget in 2017-18;

• Deliver £30bn of spending cuts in the next 2 years (reduce welfare spending by £12bn; Cap overall welfare spending; Cap the amount of benefits per household to £23k); Raise health spending £8bn above inflation

• Raise the Personal Allowance to £12,5k; Raise the 40p Income Tax rate to £50k; Reduce income tax by £7bn; Reduce inheritance tax; Crackdown on tax avoidance; “Tax lock” (Ban increases in income tax, VAT and national insurance in the new parliament);

• Freezing rail fares; Legislate for a “tax free minimum wage”

Cons Lib Dem Lab SNP number of years 4 3 4 5 Total reduction 5.2 3.9 3.6 3.6

Tax increase 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.5 Spending cuts 4.6 2.8 2.5 3.1

Social Security 0.6 0.1 0 -0.2 Non-Departemental 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.2 Departemental 3.1 2 1.7 2.2 Interest payment 0 0 -0.1 -0.1

Share of spending 88% 72% 69% 86% Share of unspecified 69% 44% 53% 56% Stylised impact on GDP 4.9 3.5 3.2 3.4

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Actual PSNBxCONSLibDemLABSNP

Source: HMT, Barclays Research

International investors turning cautious

UK 2015 General Election Current polls on an EU referendum

Source: BoE, Barclays Research

69

Government to call a EU referendum • EU referendum seems unavoidable as it was one of

Cameron’s red line during the campaign.

• Plan is obtain concessions from Brussels and campaign on the base of this to stay in the EU

• We highlight the risks relative to a in/out referendum: results tend to be close, outcome unsure and voters not always answer to the question asked.

• The Scottish referendum may serve a lesson to ensure early and serious campaign to stay in the EU and mitigate risks of an exit by accident.

• Unless polls show consistently robust support for pro-EU, we shall expect confidence to be hit by uncertainty. Lower confidence would in turn weight on business investment and household spending.

• D.Cameron now needs to propose a credible negotiation programme to his European peers in order to jump start the process.

• If negotiations are sufficiently open, a majority of Member states may have an interest in participating

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Private Sector Net Purchase of Public Sector Debt

Net Purchases of Public Sector Debt by non-residents

12 month rolling totals, % of Nom GDP

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15

Remain in EU Leave EU Undecided

The UK Uncertain times ahead

70

Key messages

10 February 2015

• Macroeconomic outlook: We expect 2015 GDP growth to come in substantially lower (2.3% vs 2.8%) than last year. Mounting uncertainty in the run up to the election may have prompted household to save extra income.

• Inflation outlook: the 2015 inflation outlook for this year remains bleak (0% y/y in March) but is expected to improve gradually as domestic pressure build up and base effects fall out. We expect inflation to reach 1.6% on average next year up from 0.3% this year.

• General election: The surprise overall majority snatched by the Conservatives at the General Election has removed substantial amount of uncertainty. Markets reacted positively to the news as well as to the prospects of avoiding Labour government policies. Main items on the policy agenda are the resumption of fiscal consolidation driven and the holding of a EU referendum.

• Fiscal Policies: we expect the Conservatives to aim to implement a 5% of GDP fiscal swing over the next 4 years. 90% of the adjustment will come from spending cuts.

• Monetary Policy: surprisingly weak Q1 growth as seriously challenged our forecast of a rate hike this year. Market don’t expect the first hike before mid-2016.

• Risks: On the negative side: policies (essentially pace and design of fiscal consolidation) and institutional (EU referendum, Scottish and UK devolution). On the economic front, consumption could react with delay to lower oil prices, productivity could pick up sooner and faster than expected.

Weak recent data fuel uncertainties amid medium term policy risks

71

Macroeconomic outlook

• Our forecasts show activity around 0.5-0.6% q/q this year and next pushing annual growth down to 2.2% next year.

• Intensification of fiscal austerity and EU related uncertainties, are however expect to weigh on growth post election

• Inflation is expected to hover just above zero this year and around 1.6% next year.

GDP to recover after weak Q1… …but growth set to slow in 2016 Surprisingly weak Q1 data challenges optimist outlook

10 February 2015

UK Snapshot


Source: Barclays Research Source: ONS, Barclays Research

2014 2015 2016 Calendar year average % Change q/q Q1 Q2 E Q3 Q4 Q1 E Q2 E Q3 E Q4 E Q1 E Q2 E Q3 E Q4 E 2014E 2015E 2016E Real GDP 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 … … … Real GDP (y/y) 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.2

Private consumption 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 2.5 2.4 2.0 Public consumption 0.2 1.7 0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7 0.5 0.3 Investment 3.2 0.7 1.7 -0.6 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 7.8 4.9 5.5 Inventories (pp) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 Net exports (pp) 0.1 0.2 -0.5 0.8 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.1 0.0

GDP deflator Y/Y 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 0.4 1.5 Nominal GDP Y/Y 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.3 3.0 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.7 4.6 2.7 3.8 Unemployment rate % 6.8 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.2 5.6 5.5 CPI inflation (y/y) 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.5 0.3 1.6


72

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Private consumption GFCF Change in stocksNet trade balance Govt consumption Real GDP


• Household consumption has increased for 15 consecutive quarters, growing 6% since its low in Q1 11.

• Since 2009, consumption contributed by 4.9pp to the 10.3% total increase in GDP

• In Q2 14, 6 years after the start of the crisis, consumption recovered its pre-crisis level

• Investment has posted 8 consecutive quarters of positive growth to Q3’14, up 12%.

• Since 2009, Investment grew 27% and contributed 4.1pp to GDP growth.

• Investment in Constr., Resid. and non-Resid. represents about half of that increase.

• In Q4 14, total investment was still a couple of pp short of its pre-crisis level.

Consumption Investment Consumption and Investment drive the recovery

10 February 2015

Little contribution from external sector Consumption trails GDP growth

Source: ONS, Barclays Research Source: Barclays Research

73

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Imports Exports Net trade balance0.12

0.13

0.14

0.15

0.16

0.17

0.18

0.19

0.20

0.21

0.22

0.60

0.61

0.62

0.63

0.64

0.65

0.66

0.67

0.68

0.69

0.70

99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

Private consumption (lhs) GFCF (rhs)


• Business sentiment rebounded on output, new orders and employment

• Surveys point to ongoing strong recovery in investment and activity, even though confidence has been slipping in recent months

• High levels of confidence contrast with low levels of productivity

Business sentiment and investment Business Household and business remain at elevated levels

10 February 2015

Service sentiment sky high… …even though productivity stalls

Source: Markit, Barclays Research Source: ONS, Barclays Research

Source: Markit, ONS, Barclays Research

74

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16GFCF growth (%y/ y, lhs) Composite PMI (4 months lead rhs)

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16PMI Composite Services Manufacturing

-7-6-5-4-3-2-1012345

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Apparent labour productivity (%y/ y)

Employment (%y/ y)

GDP (%y/ y)


• UK export performance has been poor and market share loses have been substantial over the last decade.

• UK exporters have strikingly been unsuccessful in European markets

• Currency depreciation and wage moderation reversed this trend pointing to substantial non-prices competitiveness gap

Shift in export country composition Don't blame the EA for weak exports UK continues to lose market share

10 February 2015

UK loses market shares in the EA Poor export performance (G&S)

Note: Series are 12 months moving average. Source: Eurostat, Barclays Research Source: Barclays Research

Source: ONS, Barclays Research

75

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Change in UK market share (%y/ y, lhs)EA total importsEA imports from the UK

(% of Total) 2000 2013 Change 2013/2000

Americas 22.0 22.5 0.4 Asia 13.5 18.4 5.0 Australia & Oceania 1.9 2.2 0.3 Africa 2.9 3.5 0.6 Europe 59.7 53.4 -6.3

DE 11.0 8.3 -2.7 NL 7.3 7.0 -0.3 FR 8.9 6.3 -2.6 IE 5.7 5.2 -0.5 BE 4.5 3.3 -1.2 IT 4.2 2.9 -1.3 SP 3.9 2.6 -1.3

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

UK Export Markets (2010Q1=100, lhs)UK Exports (2010Q1=100, lhs)Export Performance (rhs, 2010Q1=100)

• The pick-up in activity has translated into improvements in both employment and unemployment, although earnings growth remains subdued.

• The ILO unemployment rate fell to 5.5% in March, and we now expect further drop in unemployment to be marginal.

• Strong labour reports have come hand in hand with weak AWE, but taking into account low inflation, real wages have been picking up nicely as unemployment fell.

• Unless met by a recovery in productivity, further drop in unemployment could prompt stronger pick up in earning and higher costs for corporate.

Labour market: Improving fast but wage growth subdued

10 February 2015 76

Source: REC/KPMG, Barclays Research

Wage pressure building up?

Labour market: low unemployment but subdued wage growth

ASHE continuous real wages up 2.3%

Source: Haver Analytics, Barclays Research

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Real Gross Weekly earning (continuous) Unemploym't Chge (1Y lead, inverted, rhs)

%y/ y%y/ y

10 February 2015 77

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

% 3m/ y Index

REC permanent salaries balance, 9M lead (LHS) Core AWE private sector %3m/ y (RHS)

Source: Bank of England, Barclays Research

UK: Unemployment rate and wage growth Inflation outpaced AWE during 7 years


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CPI inflation AWE Whole economy

3.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.09.5-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

%3m/ y Real Core AWE (deflated by CPI inflation)

Unemployment rate (%, rhs, inverted)


• Consensus among MPC Members (9-0) highlights short-term downside risks to inflation and medium-term upside risks to activity and wages. But GBP appreciation against the Euro could pose a threat to inflation recovery. Also disappointing growth and wage data challenge the view of an early hike.

• While we still hold on to our call of a rate hike before the end of the year, we highlight increasing risks of a later take off. We believe the Bank remains in wait-and-see mode: the date of the first hike remain largely data driven and will continue to “move around” (M.Carney)

• Wage and productivity developments are less of a challenge for the BoE given lower oil prices (positive productivity shock = more growth, less inflation). But overall weak productivity growth since 2012 (productivity puzzle) complicate monetary policy forecasting.

Productivity puzzle

Policies: BoE rate call tilted towards a later take-off but

Unemployment under pdtivity growth scenario

Note: productivity gains are split half on GDP and Half on employment. Source: ONS, Barclays Research

10 February 2015 78

65

75

85

95

105

115

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Trend GDP per Hours worked (%y/ y)

17%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Actual Constant productivity growth


Fiscal policy: structural slippage

Excess growth and discretionary tightening

Source: HMT, ONS, Barclays Research. Note: Discretionary fiscal tightening is smoothed over 2 years to take into account lagged effects of fiscal policies

Disappointing budgetary execution (% of GDP)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

pp

Growth in excess of potential (lhs) Discretionary fiscal tightening (rhs)Discretionary tightening (2010 budget)

inversed, £bn

• The OBR revised public borrowing needs higher as receipts consistently fall short of expectations (low wages, low inflation, week housing activity…)

• Spending also benefits from lower inflation and interest rates but after a couple of years only.

• The Autumn Statement contained no decisive measures even if only to lean against the structural deterioration of public finances

• Given the smaller consolidation as expected, we see upside risk to our growth forecast in the short run stemming from public finances

Spending towards their lowest ever

10 February 2015 79

3032343638404244464850

48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 17Current receipts Barclays ForecastsTotal spending Barclays Forecasts

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Current Budget (lhs) Receipts ex (rhs) Expenditures (rhs)

Source: OBR, OECD, Barclays Research

Policy Mix set to become more restrictive

Policy Mix: fiscal policy to tighten first • According to current projections, both monetary and fiscal policies are set to become less

accommodative in the coming years.

• Most of the effort though is expected to take place on the fiscal side, while monetary policy expectations are fairly subdued.

• We expect BoE to start hiking before the end of the year and fiscal austerity to resume soon after the elections. Uncertainties are however high as policies remain contingent on growth and inflation developments.

10 February 2015 80

2015

20162017

20182019

20202006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2

Real

Shor

t ter

m In

tere

st R

ate (

%)

Structural Deficit (% of GDP)

More restrictive policy mix

More accomodative policy mix

Greece Liquidity stress reignites solvency concerns

81

Public finances: short-term: increasingly cash strapped • 2014 primary balance was reportedly 1.2pp below target at just 0.3%. First two months of budget

execution data show ongoing underperformance, likely owing to political uncertainty, households’ reluctance to pay taxes and falling economic activity.

• The Greek PDMA indicated that the government’s cash deposits stood at c.€2.6bn at the end of December 2014, but various press reports have indicated that the central government has been increasing the use of arrears and has tapped unused cash reserves in various public state bodies (from state-owned companies, social security funds, etc).

• No more official payment is due by May 1

Public finances: 2015 financing gap remains significant at c.€20bn • Our and the government’s projected financing gap for this year converge towards €20bn. However,

signficant upside risks lie, mainly owing to the macroeconomic outlook, and related fiscal performance, and the need to refill public coffer buffers. Total financing until 2019 is just over €50bn.

82

Greece: Liquidity stress reignites solvency concerns

Macroeconomic assumptions2014

MoF Barclays MoF BarclaysReal GDP growth (%) 0.8 1.4 -0.5 2.9 1.1HICP (%) -1.4 -0.5 -1.2 0.6 1.0Unemployment rate (%) 24.5 23.4 24.5 21.1 24.0Source: Greek Ministry of Finance, preliminary projections, Barclays Research

2015 2016

Repayment timeline and other key events for Greece

83


Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Date Event Total repayment

15-Apr-15 Issuance of a T-bill to roll that maturing on April 17 worth €1.0bn (maturity was 3 months)

20-Apr-15 Deadline to send amended reform list to the Brussels' group

24-Apr-15 Scheduled Eurogroup meeting in Riga

End April-15 Public sector wages and pensions: €1.7bnEnd April-15 Completion of final review of the extended arrangement01-May-15 IMF interest payment: €200mn08-May-15 182 day t-bill maturing worth €1.4bn12-May-15 IMF repayment: €780mn15-May-15 13 weeks t-bill maturing worth €1.4bn05-Jun-15 IMF repayment: €310mn12-Jun-15 13, 26 weeks t-bill maturing worth €1.6bn and €2.0bn12-Jun-15 IMF repayment: €350mn16-Jun-15 IMF repayment: €580mn19-Jun-15 13 weeks t-bill maturing worth €1.6bn19-Jun-15 IMF repayment: €350mn

End June-15 Agreement on a new programme10-Jul-15 182 days t-bill maturing worth €2.0bn13-Jul-15 IMF repayment: €465mn

17-Jul-15 13 weeks t-bill maturing (to be issued)

20-Jul-15 ECB SMP bond matures: €3.5bn

01-Aug-15 IMF interest payment: €180mn07-Aug-15 26 weeks t-bill maturing worth €1.0bn

20-Aug-15 ECB SMP bond matures: €3.2bn

Total repayment in July: €4.7bn- GGB coupon repayment: €0.737bn

Total repayment in August: €3.6bn- GGB coupon repayment: €0.215bn

Total repayment in June: €1.7bn - €1.59bn in IMF repayment

- €0.085bn in GGB coupon payments

Total repayment in May: €1.0bn

Complex negotiations of a third financial aid package to follow • We believe Greece will have to ask for another bailout worth at least €25-30bn, but will be no trivial task

(reform fatigue from the Greek population, negotiations with the institutions, and member states). OSI discussions could also return to the table.

The risk of an accident and capital controls • Even if Greece passes the current review, we believe the risks of a liquidity accident remain high, turning

the current liquidity crisis into a full fledged one. There are several possible triggers: public finance accident, negotiations breakup, domestic politics.

• Capital controls are unlikely to be imposed preventively

• Default is more likely to come as a consequence of no agreement, rather than a unilateral pre emptive strategic decision, which could lead to an exit.

• Direct default and exit risk appear manageable

• But contagion could create near-term stress in riskier assets (Portugal, Spain, Italy)

• No EMU breakup envisaged thanks to firewalls (QE, OMT, ESM, capitalised banks), better cyclical momentum.

• However, an exit would create a precedent, hence fundamentally changing the nature of EMU in the more medium term, and could increase market pressure/ volatility on public finance solvency/politics issues.

84


Analyst Certifications and Important Disclosures Analyst Certification(s) I, Fabrice Montagne, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is a part of the Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates (collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). For current important disclosures regarding companies that are the subject of this research report, please send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 14th Floor, New York, NY 10019 or refer to http://publicresearch.barclays.com or call 212-526-1072. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates regularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are the subject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and/or short position in such securities, other financial instruments and/or derivatives, which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subject to appropriate information barrier restrictions, Barclays fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk personnel regarding current market conditions and prices. Barclays fixed income research analysts receive compensation based on various factors including, but not limited to, the quality of their work, the overall performance of the firm (including the profitability of the investment banking department), the profitability and revenues of the Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities Division and the potential interest of the firm’s investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst. To the extent that any historical pricing information was obtained from Barclays trading desks, the firm makes no representation that it is accurate or complete. All levels, prices and spreads are historical and do not represent current market levels, prices or spreads, some or all of which may have changed since the publication of this document. Barclays produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of research may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, or otherwise. Unless otherwise indicated, Barclays trade ideas are provided as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice due to changes in prices. In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to https://live.barcap.com/publiccp/RSR/nyfipubs/disclaimer/disclaimer-research-dissemination.html. In order to access Barclays Research Conflict Management Policy Statement, please refer to: https://live.barcap.com/publiccp/RSR/nyfipubs/disclaimer/disclaimer-conflict-management.html.

10 February 2015 85

86

Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by the Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and/or one or more of its affiliates (collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). It has been issued by one or more Barclays legal entities within its Corporate and Investment Banking division as provided below. It is provided to our clients for information purposes only, and Barclays makes no express or implied warranties, and expressly disclaims all warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use with respect to any data included in this publication. Barclays will not treat unauthorized recipients of this report as its clients. Prices shown are indicative and Barclays is not offering to buy or sell or soliciting offers to buy or sell any financial instrument. Without limiting any of the foregoing and to the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Barclays, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees have any liability for (a) any special, punitive, indirect, or consequential damages; or (b) any lost profits, lost revenue, loss of anticipated savings or loss of opportunity or other financial loss, even if notified of the possibility of such damages, arising from any use of this publication or its contents. Other than disclosures relating to Barclays, the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources that Barclays Research believes to be reliable, but Barclays does not represent or warrant that it is accurate or complete. Barclays is not responsible for, and makes no warranties whatsoever as to, the content of any third-party web site accessed via a hyperlink in this publication and such information is not incorporated by reference. The views in this publication are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Barclays has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. The analyst recommendations in this publication reflect solely and exclusively those of the author(s), and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Barclays and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Barclays recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This material has been issued and approved for distribution in the UK and European Economic Area (“EEA”) by Barclays Bank PLC. It is being made available primarily to persons who are investment professionals as that term is defined in Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005. It is directed at, and therefore should only be relied upon by, persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments. The investments to which it relates are available only to such persons and will be entered into only with such persons. Barclays Bank PLC is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. The Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays undertakes U.S. securities business in the name of its wholly owned subsidiary Barclays Capital Inc., a FINRA and SIPC member. Barclays Capital Inc., a U.S. registered broker/dealer, is distributing this material in the United States and, in connection therewith accepts responsibility for its contents. Any U.S. person wishing to effect a transaction in any security discussed herein should do so only by contacting a representative of Barclays Capital Inc. in the U.S. at 745 Seventh Avenue, New York, New York 10019. Non-U.S. persons should contact and execute transactions through a Barclays Bank PLC branch or affiliate in their home jurisdiction unless local regulations permit otherwise. Barclays Bank PLC, Paris Branch (registered in France under Paris RCS number 381 066 281) is regulated by the Autorité des marchés financiers and the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel. Registered office 34/36 Avenue de Friedland 75008 Paris. This material is distributed in Canada by Barclays Capital Canada Inc., a registered investment dealer and member of IIROC (www.iiroc.ca). Subject to the conditions of this publication as set out above, the Corporate & Investment Banking Division of Absa Bank Limited, an authorised financial services provider (Registration No.: 1986/004794/06. Registered Credit Provider Reg No NCRCP7), is distributing this material in South Africa. Absa Bank Limited is regulated by the South African Reserve Bank. This publication is not, nor is it intended to be, advice as defined and/or contemplated in the (South African) Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 37 of 2002, or any other financial, investment, trading, tax, legal, accounting, retirement, actuarial or other professional advice or service whatsoever. Any South African person or entity wishing to effect a transaction in any security discussed herein should do so only by contacting a representative of the Corporate & Investment Banking Division of Absa Bank Limited in South Africa, 15 Alice Lane, Sandton, Johannesburg, Gauteng 2196. Absa Bank Limited is a member of the Barclays group. In Japan, foreign exchange research reports are prepared and distributed by Barclays Bank PLC Tokyo Branch. Other research reports are distributed to institutional investors in Japan by Barclays Securities Japan Limited. Barclays Securities Japan Limited is a joint-stock company incorporated in Japan with registered office of 6-10-1 Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo 106-6131, Japan. It is a subsidiary of Barclays Bank PLC and a registered financial instruments firm regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan. Registered Number: Kanto Zaimukyokucho (kinsho) No. 143.

10 February 2015

87

Disclaimer (continued) Barclays Bank PLC, Hong Kong Branch is distributing this material in Hong Kong as an authorised institution regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Registered Office: 41/F, Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong. Information on securities/instruments that trade in Taiwan or written by a Taiwan-based research analyst is distributed by Barclays Capital Securities Taiwan Limited to its clients. The material on securities/instruments not traded in Taiwan is not to be construed as 'recommendation' in Taiwan. Barclays Capital Securities Taiwan Limited does not accept orders from clients to trade in such securities. This material may not be distributed to the public media or used by the public media without prior written consent of Barclays. This material is distributed in South Korea by Barclays Capital Securities Limited, Seoul Branch. All equity research material is distributed in India by Barclays Securities (India) Private Limited (SEBI Registration No: INB/INF 231292732 (NSE), INB/INF 011292738 (BSE) | Corporate Identification Number: U67120MH2006PTC161063 | Registered Office: 208 | Ceejay House | Dr. Annie Besant Road | Shivsagar Estate | Worli | Mumbai - 400 018 | India, Phone: + 91 22 67196363). Other research reports are distributed in India by Barclays Bank PLC, India Branch. Barclays Bank PLC Frankfurt Branch distributes this material in Germany under the supervision of Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin). This material is distributed in Malaysia by Barclays Capital Markets Malaysia Sdn Bhd. This material is distributed in Brazil by Banco Barclays S.A. This material is distributed in Mexico by Barclays Bank Mexico, S.A. Barclays Bank PLC in the Dubai International Financial Centre (Registered No. 0060) is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). Principal place of business in the Dubai International Financial Centre: The Gate Village, Building 4, Level 4, PO Box 506504, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Barclays Bank PLC-DIFC Branch, may only undertake the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing DFSA licence. Related financial products or services are only available to Professional Clients, as defined by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Barclays Bank PLC in the UAE is regulated by the Central Bank of the UAE and is licensed to conduct business activities as a branch of a commercial bank incorporated outside the UAE in Dubai (Licence No.: 13/1844/2008, Registered Office: Building No. 6, Burj Dubai Business Hub, Sheikh Zayed Road, Dubai City) and Abu Dhabi (Licence No.: 13/952/2008, Registered Office: Al Jazira Towers, Hamdan Street, PO Box 2734, Abu Dhabi). Barclays Bank PLC in the Qatar Financial Centre (Registered No. 00018) is authorised by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority (QFCRA). Barclays Bank PLC-QFC Branch may only undertake the regulated activities that fall within the scope of its existing QFCRA licence. Principal place of business in Qatar: Qatar Financial Centre, Office 1002, 10th Floor, QFC Tower, Diplomatic Area, West Bay, PO Box 15891, Doha, Qatar. Related financial products or services are only available to Business Customers as defined by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. This material is distributed in the UAE (including the Dubai International Financial Centre) and Qatar by Barclays Bank PLC. This material is distributed in Saudi Arabia by Barclays Saudi Arabia ('BSA'). It is not the intention of the publication to be used or deemed as recommendation, option or advice for any action(s) that may take place in future. Barclays Saudi Arabia is a Closed Joint Stock Company, (CMA License No. 09141-37). Registered office Al Faisaliah Tower, Level 18, Riyadh 11311, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Authorised and regulated by the Capital Market Authority, Commercial Registration Number: 1010283024. This material is distributed in Russia by OOO Barclays Capital, affiliated company of Barclays Bank PLC, registered and regulated in Russia by the FSFM. Broker License #177-11850-100000; Dealer License #177-11855-010000. Registered address in Russia: 125047 Moscow, 1st Tverskaya-Yamskaya str. 21. This material is distributed in Singapore by the Singapore branch of Barclays Bank PLC, a bank licensed in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. For matters in connection with this report, recipients in Singapore may contact the Singapore branch of Barclays Bank PLC, whose registered address is One Raffles Quay Level 28, South Tower, Singapore 048583. Barclays Bank PLC, Australia Branch (ARBN 062 449 585, AFSL 246617) is distributing this material in Australia. It is directed at 'wholesale clients' as defined by Australian Corporations Act 2001. IRS Circular 230 Prepared Materials Disclaimer: Barclays does not provide tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed to be tax advice. Please be advised that any discussion of U.S. tax matters contained herein (including any attachments) (i) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by you for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties; and (ii) was written to support the promotion or marketing of the transactions or other matters addressed herein. Accordingly, you should seek advice based on your particular circumstances from an independent tax advisor. © Copyright Barclays Bank PLC (2015). All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or redistributed in any manner without the prior written permission of Barclays. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England No. 1026167. Registered office 1 Churchill Place, London, E14 5HP. Additional information regarding this publication will be furnished upon request. EU24313

10 February 2015

Closing Comments

Paul Sykes, Aon Insurance Managers (Guernsey) Limited

Master Class 2015

Documents

Transcript of Master Class 2015