Massachusetts Institute of Technology SECURITY STUDIES …

Massachusetts Institute of TechnologySECURITY STUDIES PROGRAM

Annual Report2002-2003

Cover Picture:The centerpiece of the national Air Force Memorial proposed for Washington, DC reaches 270 feet into the air. This Memorial isintended to honor the millions of men and women who have served in the U.S. Air Force and its predecessor organizations. TheMemorial is designed by James Ingo Freed of New York City's Pei Cobb Freed & Partners architects. Mr. Freed is widelyrecognized for designing the Holocaust Museum, also in Washington DC.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

2 Director's Statement

11 Faculty

17 Affiliates

26 Seminar and Dinner Series

36 Conferences and Workshops

37 Field Trips

38 Publications

43 SSP Teaching

44 Courses

48 Professional Education

49 SSP-Affiliated Graduate Students

51 SSP Directory

SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAMMassachusetts Institute of Technology292 Main Street (E38-600)Cambridge, MA 02139

Tel: (617) 258-7608Fax: (617) 258-7858Email: [email protected]: http://web.mit.edu/ssp

"STUD

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SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAM

he Security Studies Program (SSP) is a graduate level research and educational programbased at the MIT Center for International Studies. It traces its origins to two initiatives.One is the teaching on international security topics, and most particularly on defense

budgeting, that Professor William Kaufmann began in the 1960s at the MIT Political ScienceDepartment. The other is the MIT-wide seminars on nuclear weapons and arms control policythat Professors Jack Ruina and George Rathjens began in the mid-1970s.

Initially called the MIT Defense and Arms Control Studies Program, SSP's teaching ties areprimarily, but not exclusively, with the MIT Political Science Department. The SSP faculty,however, includes natural scientists and engineers as well as social scientists. Distinguishing theprogram is its ability to integrate technical and political analyses in studies of internationalsecurity issues.

Several of the SSP faculty have had extensive government experience. They and the other Pro-gram faculty advise or comment frequently on current policy problems. But the Program's primetask is educating those young men and women who will be the next generation of scholars andpractitioners in international security policy making. The Program's research and public serviceactivities necessarily complement that effort.

The Center for International Studies is a major unit of the School of Humanities, Arts, and SocialSciences at MIT and seeks to encourage the analysis of issues of continuing public concern. Keycomponents of the Center in addition to SSP are Seminar XXI, which offers training in theanalysis of international issues for senior military officers, government officials, and industryexecutives; and the MIT Japan Program, which conducts research and educational activities tofurther knowledge about Japanese technology, economic activities, and politics.

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DIRECTOR'S STATEMENT

nother year, another war, but this onesplit both the Western Alliance and itslocal equivalent, the MIT Security

Studies Program. The Iraq War of Spring 2003divided us in ways that the Afghanistan War ofthe previous year did not. Some colleaguesopposed the Iraq War as unnecessary anddiverting, believing that Saddam could becontained as he had been for the past dozenyears, and that the pursuit of al Qaeda, which isat war with the United States, required thenation's undivided attention. Others felt that thecontainment of Saddam helped spawn al Qaedaby requiring a visible US military presence inSaudi Arabia, the heart of Islam, while notpreventing Saddam from continuing to commitatrocities against his own people. None amongus thought that a nuclear-armed Iraq was eitherdesirable or close at hand. Most, but not all ofus, discounted the importance of Iraqi posses-sion of chemical and biological weapons. Thewar, we all agreed, had a window of opportu-nity opened by the attacks of September 11,2001, and that only the approach of the 2004election, not the opposition of US allies, couldprevent it from taking place.

For or against, we all became minor mediastars during the war, offering not alwaysinsightful opinions for local and nationalaudiences on such topics as the pace of the war,the performance of American airpower, thelikely shape and consequence of the urbanfight, and the possible composition of the post-war Iraqi government. Strangely, we were neverasked why the campuses, including our own,were quieter than they had been for the firstdays of the Afghanistan War. Neither academic

theorizing about the effectiveness of deterrencenor the galling opposition of the French, theGermans, the Canadians and the Turks gave theantiwar movement any collegiate traction fordemonstrations against the attack on Iraq. Theexplanation, we should have known, for boththe speed with which Iraq was conquered andthe anemic antiwar protest lies largely in theextensive use of precision-guided weapons-JDAMs, Laser Guided Bombs, and the others.Precision reduces collateral damage andcriticism of US policy.

The 82nd looking for al Qaeda in Afghanistan

MIT SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAM

OVERVIEW

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The Iraqi militaryalready had experiencewith precision warfareof an early variety in itsfirst war with Americaand in the subsequentenforcement of the so-called No Fly Zonesthat came afterwards.But the Gulf War videosnotwithstanding, manyin the American publicstill thought of airattacks in terms of thecarpet-bombing imagesof Vietnam and WorldWar II documentaries,until last year's Afghani-stan war. In Afghanistanthe images presentedwere of Special Opera-tions spotters on horse-back smashing al Qaeda Saddam's Paland the Taliban bycalling in a JDAM or two from a single circlingB-52 high above. These civilian-sparing andsparingly organized strikes demonstrated thegreat value of precision warfare. Simply put,precision inhibits opposition. In this war theIraqi Air Force was apparently too afraid to flyand the Iraqi Army largely walked away fromits vehicles and the war. Back in the UnitedStates, the war's domestic critics were disarmedby the war's rapid pace and obvious accuracy.The pool camera fixed on the roof ofBaghdad's Palestine Hotel showed Saddam'spalaces exploding awesomely in the back-ground, while Iraqis below waited safely intheir vehicles for traffic lights to change. WarAmerican style seems to have become a quick,low casualty, low collateral damage affair forwhich both armed resistance and domesticpolitical protest are futile and inappropriatebehavior.

ace: the only place where Americans can now smoke in-doors

This kind of power worries many. Our Euro-pean allies fear permanent irrelevance. Turkey'sawkward refusal to allow staging facilities forU.S. aircraft and troops did not stop the attackon Iraq. Neither did the threat of a French UNSecurity Council veto nor reports of over-whelmingly negative German public opinion.America's great old friend Canada andAmerica's great new friend Mexico choseprinciple over economic self-interest byopposing the war, but now quietly seek forgive-ness for their transgression. Iran and NorthKorea have expressed both nuclear bravado andintense concern about possibly being next onPresident Bush's list of regimes to be changed.Some observers believe American arrogancehas grown with American power, giving insultto friend and foe alike while breaking thedifficult-to-weave bonds of internationalcollaboration and institutions.

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101st locates Saddam's sons

Domestically, Democrats fear that PresidentBush is using successful expeditionary warfareto reinforce al Qaeda-generated securityconcerns among the public and rekindle thelate Cold War belief that only Republicanadministrations will be military savvy enoughand determined enough to protect Americaeffectively. Complaints about President Bush'svictory-lap landing on the carrier, Vietnam-likechaos in Iraq, and the failure to increasefunding for homeland security are probes forweaknesses in the Republican war-machine thathave produced nothing yet but deepeningDemocrat frustration and a more pronouncedpresidential swagger.

American power is in fact not boundless.Military transformation promises that limited

U.S. forces, through the effective integration ofinformation dominance, stealth and precisionattack capabilities, can project and sustainAmerican power globally. There is no doubtabout our technological prowess. We spendnearly six times what the rest of the worldspends on defense R&D activities, a gap thathas existed on roughly the same order ofmagnitude for the last 60 years. Technology isemphasized because we are manpower limited,now more than ever. Conscription ended in theUS in 1974. America relies on volunteers forits active and reserve military. Prolongedcombat on a significant scale requires con-scription, which is why we seek capabilities toconduct quick, relatively bloodless wars. Aseries of wars and occupations in unpleasant,hostile places will likely strain the system in

MIT SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAM4

the same way one long costly war would.Without a draft there will not be enough peopleto drive the trucks let alone pull the triggers.Some surely will join for the adventure, but notenough. More and more of the force aremarried with children. Thirty-five year oldreservists want a part-time job near their homesand families, not a chance to spend six monthsin Central Asia every other year without them.More technology may be the answer. Greateruse of contractors (partially to free up activeduty soldiers and partially to replace crankyreservists), greater recruitment of immigrants(already about five percent of the force), andgreater support from allies (if the Japanese andthe Poles sign up for Iraq duty can the Gurkhasbe far behind?) can help, but more likely thepersonnel strains inherent in a globally inter-vening military will quickly constrain thoughtsof Empire and spreading of democracy by thesword.

Personally, it has been a wonderful year. BarryPosen and Cindy Williams have been away on

leave. So too was Ted Postol for a semester(138 days to be exact, but who was counting).Geoff Forden and Jorn Siljeholm served in theUN Monitoring, Verification and InspectionCommission (UNMOVIC), but did not manageto stop the war. Several of our past militaryfellows and even some of our graduates had arole in the excellent victory. This year's crop ofstudents and military fellows has been espe-cially terrific. Adding to the joy of the year,France and Germany have become the leadersof an. anti-American coalition within theEuropean Union, hastening the day whenAmerican troops will leave the continent. Thetroops are leaving Saudi Arabia and are pullingback from the demilitarized zone in Korea.Now to get them home.

Thanks to the combined talents of KarenSapolsky, Magdalena Rieb, Brandi Sladek,Kristen Cashin and Heidi LaBash we have aSecurity Studies Program (SSP) logo (below),and a new motto: Don't Mess With SSP, TheLoose Cannons of MIT.

sTUDIES

MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

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And then there Magdalena Riebdaughter HelenSladek, our Assidaughter Audreyover with ChrisP.R. Goldstone,Hirsch, and Timrespectively, TesHagar andCaroline.And amongthe faculty,SteveVanEvera ispapa to histhird child,Alice.

Of coursethere were

counterclockwise, top:Magdalena and Helen,Brandi and Audrey,Tim and Caroline

disappoint-ments. Themilitaryfellows, no doulbillions of dollathe Departmentperfecting Poweoutstanding jobour annual awarsaid that they wethe show's mastiteur comedian, sample of their'faculty section.) And we are losing toanother institution Tom Christensen, ourcolleague for six years, a nationally recognizedexpert on Chinese foreign policy, and a greatteacher and scholar.

We did make some progress this year. Thanksespecially to the efforts of Sandy Weiner, butalso those of Jean Guillemin, Greg Koblentz,and George Lewis, we organized a number ofvery informative seminars and workshops on

bio-terrorism and bio-warfare in separatecollaborations with Lincoln Laboratory, theHarvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences andTechnology, and the Harvard-Sussex Programon CBW Armament and Arms Limitation. Weare running a new summer course in this areafor the MIT Professional Institute. We alsobegan to explore ways to strengthen the programin intelligence and in the military's relationswith Non-Governmental Organizations. Expectmore from us on all of these subjects.


Protection Board, had asked that we bringtogether the nation's leading cyber-securityexperts with academic security studies special-ists to consider the strategic implications ofpotential cyber attacks by nations and terroristgroups. A week after our meeting, Richardannounced his departure from government. Aconnection? Perhaps. In the spring, at the

request of the---- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ TT alF

u.s. CentralCommandstaff, ourmilitaryfellowsconvened aworkinggroup ofgraduatestudents toprovide socialscienceinformedadvice on apossiblegovernmentfor and thesocietalrecovery of a

support pro-Steve Van,ral reports on)sh Rovnerrole in the effortlost of the blamehas beset the

This year we fulfilled two specific requests forassistance from the government. In January, theProgram hosted the first unclassified meetingon strategy for cyberwarfare, which I helpedorganize. Richard Clarke, the President'sSpecial Advisor on Cyber-security, and thefederal government's Critical Infrastructure

Our Technology Group was as busy as everexploring the limits of ballistic missile defense,the hazards of nuclear waste disposal anddesirability of space based weapons. Thegroup also continued its effort to encourageinternational scientists to work on securityissues. It hosted three visitors this year: QiuYong from China working on missile defense

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"Turn left at the second traffic light and go three blocks..."

issues, Alexander Glaser from Germanyworking on converting nuclear research reac-tors from high to low enriched fuel, and AbdulToor from Pakistan researching the feasibilityof the Space-Based Laser.

Progress was also made on our favorite govern-mental boondoggle, the project that makes theaverage weapon acquisition, comparativelyspeaking, a very well-managed and frugalendeavor, the infamous Big Dig, the $15 billioneffort to convert downtown Boston's elevatedexpressway into 17 miles worth of tunnelswhile traffic and city life flow around the work.Major portions are now open. There have evenbeen a couple of spectacular accidents as theever-unsafe Boston drivers, unaccustomed toreally speeding through the city albeit under-ground, tried to navigate the maze. The BigDig's current controversy involves the name forthe main section. The state's RepublicanGovernor favors "The Liberty Tunnel." MostDemocrat politicians favor The Thomas P."Tip" O'Neill Tunnel, after the late Cambridgerepresentative and House Speaker, who was theproject's main federal sponsor and thus respon-sible for giving the project a disproportionate

share of the national Highway Trust Fund foryears. Tip's son, Thomas P. O'Neill, Jr., is apublic relations consultant whose clientsinclude the authority building the tunnel, theproject management contractor, the construc-tion company that holds half of the contracts,and the trucking company whose rig was thecause of a major accident that recently closed abig chunk of the system for more than a day, allof whom are in litigation with one another forbillions of dollars. The ungrateful publicimpishly seems to prefer "The Boston Stran-gler" for the tunnel's name.

Our cover this year, appropriately so on the1 00th Anniversary of manned flight, is adepiction of the U.S. Air Force Memorial beingbuilt southwest of the Pentagon, on the formersite of the Navy Annex. With a different designit had been scheduled to be built north ofArlington National Cemetery near the U.S.Marine Corps Iwo Jima Memorial, but met stiffresistance from the Marine Corps, whichworried about visual infringement and touristcompetition, despite its sponsors havingobtained all necessary Capital District land-mark approvals. Those of us who believeinterservice competition is beneficial forAmerican security are comforted by the factthat this petty squabbling is taking place nearlytwenty years after the passage of the GoldwaterNichols Act, which promised to stifle competi-tion among the armed services and instill thevirtue ofjointness in the officer corps.

Finally I offer my annual observation aboutacademic organization, surely an oxymoron.My usual effort has been to draw my under-standing of the latest SSP OrganizationalChart. But continuing reflection on the behav-ior of academics convinces me that there is noloyalty or group commitment among academ-ics. The best way to put it is that scholarship,though perhaps cumulative, is nearly entirelyan individual enterprise. No wonder our motto


seems so apt. We slide separately along theslippery, swaying deck, sometimes crashinginto others and sometimes into each other.

About the only com-mon act is to expressour collective apprecia-tion for the kindsupport of our spon-sors: The CarnegieCorporation of NewYork, The FrankelFoundation, The FordFoundation, The John Dand Katherine T.MacArthur Foundation,The Smith RichardsonFoundation, The DraperLaboratory, and theMIT Lincoln Labora-tory. We are mostappreciative.

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FACULTY

HARVEY M. SAPOLSKY is Professor of Public Policy and Organization in the Department ofPolitical Science and Director of the MIT Security Studies Program. Dr. Sapolsky completed aB.A. at Boston University and earned an M.P.A. and Ph.D. at Harvard University. He has workedin a number of public policy areas, notably health, science and defense and specializes in effectsof institutional structures and bureaucratic politics on policy outcomes. In the defense field hehas served as a consultant to the Commission on Government Procurement, the Office of theSecretary of Defense, the Naval War College, the Office of Naval Research, the RAND Corpora-tion, Draper Laboratory, John Hopkins' Applied Physics Laboratory and Lockheed Martin, andhas been a visiting professor at the University of Michigan and the U.S. Military Academy. He iscurrently focusing his research on three topics: interservice and civil/military relations; the impactof casualties on U.S. use of force; and the future structure of defense industries. ProfessorSapolsky's most recent defense-related book is titled Science and the Navy, and is a study ofmilitary support of academic research.

THOMAS J. CHRISTENSEN is Professor of Political Science at MIT. He formerly was anAssociate Professor of Government at Cornell University, an Olin National Security Fellow atHarvard University's Center for International Affairs, and a Social Science Research Council/MacArthur Foundation Fellow in International Peace and Security.

Dr. Christensen received his Ph.D. in political science from Columbia University in 1993,an M.A. in international relations from the University of Pennsylvania in 1987, and a B.A. inhistory from Haverford College in 1984. Christensen's major research and teaching interests arein the following fields: Chinese foreign policy, East Asian international relations, internationalsecurity politics, and international relations theory. His published works include UsefulAdversar-ies: Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobili-zation, and Sino-American Conflict,1947-58 (Princeton University Press,1996) and several articles on topicsranging from China's foreign relationsto security alliances in Europe. He hasdone extensive field research in China.

OWEN R. COTI, JR. joined theMIT Security Studies Program in 1997as Associate Director. Prior to that hewas Assistant Director of the Interna-tional Security Program at Harvard'sCenter for Science and InternationalAffairs, where he remains co-editor ofthe Center's journal, InternationalSecurity. He received his Ph.D. from

Owen joinsthe NorthernAlliance

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MIT, where he specialized in U.S. defense policy and international security affairs. His disserta-tion, which he is now revising for publication, analyzed the sources of innovative militarydoctrine, using cases that compared U.S. Navy responses to different Cold War nuclear vulner-ability crises. He is also the author of The Third Battle: Innovation in the US. Navy s Silent ColdWar Struggle with Soviet Submarines, a book analyzing the sources of the U.S. Navy's success inits Cold War antisubmarine warfare effort, and a co-author of Avoiding NuclearAnarchy: Con-taining the Threat of Loose Russian Nuclear Weapons and Fissile Material. He has also writtenon the future of naval doctrine, nuclear force structure issues, and the threat of WMD terrorism.After graduating from Harvard College and before returning to graduate school, he worked at theHudson Institute and the Center for Naval Analyses.

GEOFFREY FORDEN joined the Security Studies Program in June 2000 as Senior ResearchAssociate. Dr. Forden spent a year on leave from MIT serving as the first Chief ofMultidiscipline Analysis Section for UNMOVIC, the United Nations Monitoring, Verification,and Inspection Commission-the agency responsible for verifying and monitoring the dismantle-ment of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. Previously, he was a strategic weapons analyst in theNational Security Division of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Before joining CBO inAugust 1997, he spent a year as a Science Fellow at Stanford's Center for International Securityand Arms Control. During the year at Stanford he performed the first unclassified, independent,technical analysis of the Airborne Laser. Geoff is a physicist by training with degrees from CaseWestern Reserve University and Indiana University. After getting his Ph.D. in physics, he spentthree years in Germany working for England's Rutherford Laboratory. Returning to the U.S., hefirst spent three years working at Fermi National Laboratory and then seven years as an AssistantProfessor of Physics at the University of Arizona. His current research includes the analysis ofRussian and Chinese space systems as well as trying to understand how proliferators acquire theknow-how and industrial infrastructure to produce weapons of mass destruction.

DANIEL HASTINGS is Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Engineering Systems atMIT. He is also co-director of the MIT Technology and Policy Program. He recently served asChief Scientist of the Air Force. His work has concentrated on issues related to spacecraft-environmental interactions, space propulsion, space systems engineering, and space policy. Hehas published some 50 papers and a book in the field of spacecraft-environment interactions andseveral papers on space propulsion and space systems. He has led several national studies ongovernment investment in space technology. He is widely recognized for his work on tethers,plasma contactors and high voltage arcing on solar arrays. He has taught courses and seminars inplasma physics, rocket propulsion, advanced space power and propulsion systems, aerospacepolicy and space systems engineering. His recent research concentrates on issues of space sys-tems and space policy. He is undertaking research efforts in new design paradigms for spacesystems, collaborating distributed satellite systems, changing the nature of the space economy andstrategic space policy.

GEORGE N. LEWIS spent five years as a Research Associate in Cornell University's Depart-ment of Applied Physics after receiving his Ph.D. in experimental solid state physics fromCornell's Physics Department in 1983. Prior to coming to MIT in 1989 he was a fellow in thePeace Studies Program at Cornell and at the Center for International Security and Arms Control at


Stanford. His research has included studies ofarms control and verification for sea-launchedcruise missiles and other non-strategic nuclearweapons, air surveillance and early warningsystems, the effectiveness of tactical missiles andof defenses against such missiles and the perfor-mance of Patriot in the 1991 Gulf War. Dr.Lewis is now conducting research on a number ofissues relevant to ballistic missile defense anddeep reductions in nuclear weapons.

ALLISON MACFARLANE is a Senior Re-search Associate at MIT's Security StudiesProgram. She received her Ph.D. in geologyfrom the Massachusetts Institute of Technologyin 1992. She has held the position of Professorof Geology and Women's Studies at GeorgeMason University where she taught a widevariety of geology and environmental courses.In 1996-97 she held a Bunting Science Fellow-ship at Radcliffe College and a Kennedy SchoolFellowship at Harvard University where sheworked with the Science, Technology and PublicPolicy group at the Center for Science andInternational Affairs. From 1997-98 she was aScience Fellow at the Center for InternationalSecurity and Arms Control at Stanford Univer-sity. From 1998-2000 she was a Social Science Cindy Williams and George LewisResearch Council-MacArthur Foundation Fellow chat about the nuclear fuel cyclein International Peace and Security at the BelferCenter for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. She has also served on aNational Academy of Sciences panel on the spent fuel standard and excess weapons plutoniumdisposition. Her research focuses on the issues surrounding the management and disposal ofhigh-level nuclear waste and fissile materials.

DAVID MINDELL is a Professor at the MIT Science, Technology and Society (STS) program.He received a B.S. in electrical engineering and a B.A. in literature from Yale University in 1988.He earned his Ph.D. from MIT in 1996 and joined the faculty the same year as an AssistantProfessor at the STS program. He was the 2001 MIT MacVicar Faculty Fellow and is a visitinginvestigator at the Deep Sea Submergence Laboratory, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Professor Mindell's research focuses on the history of technology, and on technology,archaeology and the deep sea. His most recent book is Technology, War, and Experience Aboardthe USS Monitor, (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2000). He has two more in the works: AHistory of Control Systems. 1916-1945 (working title) (Johns Hopkins University Press); Tech-nology, Archaeology, and the Deep Sea (edited with Frederick Hiebert), (Plenum Press).

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BARRY R. POSEN is Professor of Political Science at MIT and serves on the Executive Commit-tee of Seminar XXI, an educational program for senior military officers, government officials andbusiness executives in the national security policy community. He has written two books, Inad-vertent Escalation.' Conventional War and Nuclear Risks and The Sources of Military Doctrine,which won two awards: The American Political Science Association's Woodrow Wilson FoundationBook Award, and Ohio State University's Edward J. Furniss Jr. Book Award. Prior to coming toMIT, he taught at Princeton University, and has also been Guest Scholar at the Brookings Institu-tion; Post-Doctoral Fellow at the Center for International Affairs at Harvard; Council on ForeignRelations International Affairs Fellow; Rockefeller Foundation International Affairs Fellow; GuestScholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; and Woodrow Wilson Center Fellow,Smithsonian Institution. Dr. Posen's current activities include research on innovation in the U.S.

Army, 1970-1980, and research on innovation inthe French Army, 1918-1940.

THEODORE A. POSTOL is Professor ofScience, Technology and National SecurityPolicy in the Program in Science, Technologyand Society at MIT. He did his undergraduatework in physics and his graduate work innuclear engineering at MIT. Since receiving hisPh.D., Dr. Postol has worked at the ArgonneNational Laboratory, the Congressional Officeof Technology Assessment, and has been ascientific adviser to the Chief of Naval Opera-tions. Dr. Postol helped to build a program atStanford University to train mid-career scien-tists to study developments in weapons technol-ogy of relevance to defense and arms controlpolicy. In 1990 Dr. Postol was awarded the LeoSzilard Prize from the American Physical]n;+ - To 1 TIfC h- - n^srS -nd - -- __ 3UOClty. III 1 rYI' IC CClVUIVCl tl nlllliar

Roderick Prize from the American Associationfor the Advancement of Science and in 2001 hereceived the Norbert Wiener Award fromComputer Professionals for Social Responsibil-ity for uncovering numerous and important falseclaims about missile defenses.

RICHARD J. SAMUELS is Ford InternationalProfessor of Political Science and Director ofthe MIT Center for International Studies.Professor Samuels specializes in comparativepolitics, political economy, and Asian securityaffairs. He was a Fulbright scholar in Japan

Ted was fooled by their innocent look (1977-79, 1983-84, and in 1991-92), and


teaches subjects on Japanese politics and public policy, foreign policy, and the comparativepolitics of business-government relations. He is the author of numerous articles and has writtenor edited eight books. His 1987 book, The Business of the Japanese State.' Energy Markets inComparative and Historical Perspective, won the Ohira Prize. His 1994 book, Rich Nation,StrongArmy.' National Security and the Technological Transformation of Japan (winner of the1996 John Whitney Hall Prize and the Arisawa Prize) concerned the Japanese technology pro-cess, the aerospace industry, and relations between the military and civilian economies. Last yearhe published Machiavelli Children, a study of political leadership in Italian and Japanesehistory and Crisis and Innovation, a co-edited study of how the Asian economies coped with the1997 financial crisis. He is Founding Director of the MIT-Japan Program and Chairman of theJapan-U.S. Friendship Commission, an independent federal agency.

MERRITT ROE SMITH is the Leverett and William Cutten Professor of the History of Tech-nology and Director of the Program in Science, Technology and Society. His Ph.D. is from ThePennsylvania State University. His research focuses on the history of technological innovationand social change. His book, Harpers Ferry Armory and the New Technology, published in 1977,received a number of awards and was nominated for the 1977 Pulitzer Prize in History. Otherpublications include Military Enterprise and Technological Change (1985); Does TechnologyDrive History? (1994), co-edited with Leo Marx; Major Problems in the History ofAmericanTechnology (1998), co-edited with Gregory Clancey; and numerous articles and essays including"Technology, Industrialization, and the Idea of Progress in America" and "Industry, Technology,and the 'Labor Question' in 19th-Century America."

STEPHEN VAN EVERA earned his B.A. in government from Harvard and his M.A. and Ph.D.in political science from the University of California at Berkeley. Dr. Van Evera works in severalareas of international relations: the causes and prevention of war, U.S. foreign policy, U.S. secu-rity policy, U.S. intervention in the Third World, international relations of the Middle East, andinternational relations theory. He has published books on the causes of war and on social sciencemethodology, and articles on American foreign policy, American defense policy, nationalism andthe causes of war, and the origins of World War I. From 1984-1987 he was managing editor of thejournal International Security.

CINDY WILLIAMS is a Principal Research Scientist of the MIT Security Studies Program. Herwork at MIT includes an examination of national security choices facing the U.S. and a study ofoptions for reform of military personnel policies. Formerly she was an Assistant Director of theCongressional Budget Office, where she led the National Security Division in studies of budget-ary and policy choices related to defense and international security. Dr. Williams has served as adirector and in other capacities at the MITRE Corporation in Bedford, Massachusetts; as amember of the Senior Executive Service in the Office of the Secretary of Defense at the Penta-gon; and as a mathematician at RAND in Santa Monica, California. Her areas of specializationinclude the national security budget, command and control of military forces, and conventionalair and ground forces. Dr. Williams holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from the University of Califor-nia, Irvine. She has published in the areas of command and control and the defense budget. Sheis an elected fellow of the National Academy of Public Administration and a member of the NavalStudies Board, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the International Institute of StrategicStudies. She serves on the Advisory Board of Women in International Security.

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The USS Constitution attends the commissioning of the USS Preble, Boston Harbor, Nov. 9, 2002.

16 MIT SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAM

AFFILIATES

ROBERT ART is Christian Herter Professor of International Relations at Brandeis University SENIORand a Senior Fellow with MIT SSP. He has taught at Brandeis for over thirty years and is a former ADVISORSDean of the Graduate School at Brandeis. He co-edits the Cornell Series in Security Studies withRobert Jervis and Stephen Walt and is on the Board of Editors of the journals InternationalSecurity, Political Science Quarterly, and Security Studies. Professor Art teaches courses ininternational relations, American foreign policy, national security affairs and the global environ-ment. His published work centers on American foreign policy and national security affairs.Currently he is working on a book on American grand strategy after the Cold War.

SEYOM BROWN is Lawrence A. Wien Professor of International Cooperation, Department ofPolitics, Brandeis University, and Adjunct Professor of International Politics, Fletcher School ofLaw and Diplomacy. His book, The Illusion of Control: Force and Foreign Policy in the 21st Cen-tury, was recently published by The Brookings Institution.

RICK CINQUEGRANA is currently Legal Counsel to the CIA Inspector General, and, until July2003, was Deputy Staff Director and Chief Investigative Counsel for the Joint Inquiry by theCongressional Intelligence Committees into September 11th. He has held senior positions in theCIA, Justice Department, a Congressional investigation of technology transfer to China, and anational commission. He is also an adjunct faculty member of the Law School at CatholicUniversity, and has lectured and taught at a number of other universities and organizations.

JUAN COLE is Professor of Middle East and South Asian History at the University of Michi-gan. He grew up in a military family, with two tours in France and one in Ethiopia. He has anMA (1978) in Arabic Studies/ History from the American University in Cairo. He has publishedColonialism and Revolution in the Middle East (1993), about the 1882 Urabi Revolution thatprovoked the British colonization of Egypt; he used private expatriate Iranian archives to producea book in 1998 on 19th Century Iranian millenarianism; and most recently, Sacred Space andHoly War (2002), a macro-history of Shi'ite Islamic responses to modernity. He has also pub-lished journal articles on the history of Iraq. Since September 11 he has begun writing aboutcontemporary affairs, and has given papers in Tokyo and Honolulu on Muslim crowd politics andthe War on Terror. He is currently researching the contemporary history of Muslim radicalism andthe possible U.S. responses to it.

JAMES E. GOODBY is Distinguished Service Professor, Carnegie Mellon University and GuestScholar, The Brookings Institution. During his 40-year diplomatic career he was officer-in-charge for nuclear test ban negotiations; vice-chair, U.S. delegation, START I; chief U.S. negotia-tor for safe and secure dismantlement of nuclear weapons; head U.S. delegation, conference onconfidence- and security-building measures in Europe; member, State Department policy plan-ning staff; ambassador to Finland; and political counselor, U.S. mission to NATO. He is author ofEurope Undivided, a book concerning U.S.-Russian relations that appeared in February 1998.

17

JEANNE GUILLEMIN is a Professor of Sociology at Boston College. Her latest book, Anthrax:The Investigation of a Deadly Outbreak (University of California Press, 1999) chronicles thescientific inquiry into the source of the 1979 anthrax outbreak in the closed Soviet city ofSverdlovsk. As a member of the team that pinpointed the military cause of the outbreak, she hasbeen involved in numerous workshops and special presentations, for example, at Livermore, LosAlamos, the New York Council on Foreign Relations, for NATO, USAMRIID, the Hastings Centerin New York, and, of course, for the Security Studies Program. She has also written on the U.S.military's troubled anthrax vaccination program (AVIP ) inaugurated in late 1997 and on the U.S.-Soviet "Yellow Rain" mycotoxin controversy of the 1980s. Her previous research and writing hasbeen on medical technology. Prof. Guillemin has also been a Congressional Fellow, sponsored bythe American Anthropological Association, a NEH Fellow at the Hastings Center in New York, aBunting Fellow at the Radcliffe Institute, and last year, a fellow at the Dibner Institute for theHistory of Science and Technology.

JOYCE LEE MALCOLM is Professor of History at Bentley College as well as the Founder andDirector of the New England Heritage Center at Bentley. Her latest book, Guns and Violence.The English Experience, is an analysis of the relationship between guns and violent crime inEngland. An earlier book, To Keep and Bear Arms: The Origins of an Anglo-American Right, wasthe first full-scale study by a professional historian of the origins of a significant and controver-sial liberty, the right to be armed.

DAVID A. ROSENBERG is a Professor at the National War College. He has held positions at theOffice of the Secretary of Defense, the Naval War College, the University of Houston, and TempleUniversity. A Commander in the Naval Reserve, Professor Rosenberg is widely regarded as one ofthe leading historians of U.S. Cold War naval and nuclear strategies. Currently, ProfessorRosenberg is completing a biography of Admiral Arleigh A. Burke, the great hero of the modernNavy.

ROBERT ROSS is a Professor of Political Science at Boston College and an Associate atHarvard University's Fairbank Center for East Asian Studies. His research focuses on U.S.-Chinarelations, Chinese foreign policy and Chinese negotiation behavior and he is currently collaborat-ing with the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on a projectwhich looks at domestic factors in U.S.-China Relations. His most recent book is Great Wall andEmpty Fortress: China s Search for Security (W.W. Norton, 1997) with Andrew J. Nathan, and herecently co-edited US.-China Relations 1955-1971: A Reexamination of Cold War Conflict andCooperation which will be released soon by Asia Center Press, Harvard University.

MICHAEL SCHRAGE is co-director of the MIT Media Lab's eMarkets Initiative where heoversees research in the design and diffusion of market mechanisms in networks. His ongoingwork focuses on the economics and ethology of models, prototypes and simulations in managinginnovation and risk. His book, Serious Play (Harvard Business School Press 2000), exploresthese issues and has been widely adopted as a text in many graduate business and design pro-grams.

Mr. Schrage is a member of the advisory board of the Sloan Management Review, acolumnist for Technology Review and a member of the board of directors of Ticketmaster. He has


been a lecturer for the Security Studies Professional Program on Innovation and has been aninvited lecturer at the National Defense University and an advisor to DMSO. His particularnational security interest centers around the cultural and economic conflicts between 'prototype-driven' and 'requirements-driven' design and procurement of weapons systems.

Moving out of Saudi Arabia

19

B-52 chop-shop in the desert

20 MIT SECURITY STUDIES PROGRAM

It I aI a -. ! IVlII- I/'~ I

FELLOWS

SSP Military FellowsFarris, Whisenhuntand Brewington,taking a break fromtheir powerpointtraining

LIEUTENANT COLONEL B. DON FARRIS, USAArmy Senior Service College FellowLTC Farris is an infantry officer in the United States Army and a native of Lone Star, Texas. Priorto his fellowship at SSP, LTC Farris served as a Senior Task Force Observer/Controller at the JointReadiness Training Center at Fort Polk and Commander of 1s Battalion, 505th Parachute InfantryRegiment, 82nd Airborne Division, Fort Bragg.

He is a 1983 graduate of the United States Military Academy and holds a Masters ofMilitary Arts and Science from the Army Command and General Staff College, Fort Leavenworth,Kansas. He is married with three children.

LIEUTENANT COLONEL MARY WHISENHUNT, USAFUnited States Air Force FellowPrior to her fellowship with us, Lt. Col Whisenhunt served as Commander, Air Combat CommandIntelligence Squadron. She has served in the Air Force for 20 years, having entered as an airmanin 1983. Over her career she has served in many roles, such as a military journalist, political-military intelligence analyst, modernization planner, systems analyst, and squadron commander.

Lt.Col. Whisenhunt has a Master of Science degree in international relations fromWebster University in St. Louis, MO. She is a native of Wisconsin and is married to Lt.Col. JohnWhisenhunt of Columbia, Missouri.

COLONEL BROOKS BREWINGTON, USMCCommandant of the Marine Corps FellowColonel Brewington enlisted in the Marine Corps in 1972. His assignments have includedPlatoon, Company Commander and Operations Officer in various Infantry Battalions, Command-ing Officer of Fleet Anti-Terrorist Company, Rifle Company Commander during Desert Storm,and Operations Officer for the 24 Marine Expeditionary Unit Special Operations Capable (partici-pating in Operation Joint Guardian, Southern Watch and Desert Thunder) to name a few.

Col. Brewington received his Masters Degree in Military Studies from the Marine CorpsCommand and Staff College.

21

R/Il ITA NV

RESEARCHFELLOWS

PETER DUFFY is a senior manager at the Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) in New-port, Rhode Island. NUWC operates the Navy's laboratory for research, development, test andevaluation, and fleet support of undersea submarine systems. During his career Mr. Duffy hasheld several acquisition and line management positions including: Lightweight Torpedo ProgramManager, Head of the Missile Systems Division, Head of the Missile and Platform SystemsDepartment and Director of Strategic Planning. Mr. Duffy served in the U.S. Navy from 1973-1977 as a Deep Sea Diver at the fleet ballistic missile submarine base in Holy Loch, Scotland. Heearned a B.S. in mechanical engineering in 1983 from the University of Massachusetts, Amherstand a M.B.A. from the Massachusetts Institute Technology in 2000. He is an Alfred P SloanFellow. He is also a 1990 graduate of the Program Managers Course at the Defense SystemsManagement College, Ft. Belvoir, Virginia.

ALEXANDER GLASER is a physicist by training and holds a 2-year fellowship from theSocial Science Research Council in the Global Security and Cooperation Program with which hewill complete his doctoral thesis (Darmstadt University of Technology (TUD), Germany) entitled"Uranium and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation." Initiated and supported by the InterdisciplinaryResearch Group in Science, Technology and Security (IANUS) at TUD, Alexander finished hisdiploma thesis on weapons plutonium elimination in 1998. He supported several projects of theIANUS group mostly related to technical aspects of arms control and nonproliferation. In particu-lar, his work concentrated on the proliferation resistance of nuclear facilities and fuel cycles.Within this context, Alexander has been a technical advisor to the German Federal EnvironmentMinistry during 2000 and 2001, in particular, preparing a report on the research reactor FRM-II.

LISBETH GRONLUND is a Senior Staff Scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, apublic interest research group based in Cambridge, MA. After receiving her Ph.D. in theoreticalphysics from Cornell University in 1988, she made her first foray to MIT SSP, spending two yearsas a postdoctoral fellow. She then became a senior visiting scholar in the Center for InternationalSecurity Studies at the University of Maryland, College Park, and is currently on the ExecutiveCommittee of the American Physical Society's Forum on Physics and Society. Dr. Gronlund'sresearch has focused on technical aspects of arms control, and she has written on the issues ofdepressed-trajectory ballistic missiles, space-based and ground-based ballistic missile defenses,and the proliferation of ballistic missiles. She is currently carrying out a study, with other mem-bers of the MIT SSP Technical Working Group, on the implications of advanced theater missiledefenses for the ABM Treaty.

ABDUL HAMEED TOOR received his Ph.D. in theoretical Laser physics in 1996 from Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad followed by a two year postdoctoral research associate position atthe Department of Physics, Texas A & M University. Since 1998 he has been an Assistant Profes-sor in the Department of Electronics at Quaid-i-Azam University. His current work at MIT is onTheater Missile Defense in South Asia.

DAVID WRIGHT is a Senior Staff Scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists and a researchfellow in the Security Studies Program at MIT. Previously he was a SSRC-MacArthur FoundationFellow in International Peace and Security at Harvard's Center for Science and InternationalAffairs, and a senior arms control analyst at the Federation of American Scientists. His current


research includes ballistic missile defenses and technical analysis of ballistic missile developmentprograms. He has also written on international fissile material controls, estimates of Chineseproduction of plutonium for weapons, and depressed-trajectory ballistic missiles. He served onthe Social Science Research Council Committee on International Peace and Security and iscurrently an associate editor of Science and Global Security. Wright received his Ph.D. in physicsfrom Cornell University in 1983.

SANFORD WEINER is a policy analyst focusing on technology and organizational change inthe chemical, health and defense industries. Currently he is working on comparative studies ofdefense and civilian innovation, including the JSTARS radar plane. He is also looking at cross-national responses to health and environmental risks. Mr. Weiner has previously been on theresearch staffs at the School of Public Policy, University of California/Berkeley, the Heller Schoolat Brandeis University, and two other policy research centers at MIT. He currently manages theMIT Professional Course "Promoting Innovation: Organizations and Technology."

QIU YONG joins our program through January 2003. He comes from China where he receivedhis degree in 1993 from the Department of Mechanics at Tianjin University. He then joined theChina Academy of Engineering Physics (CAEP) to become one of the technical staff. Since then,he has been working for CAEP on the trajectory of re-entry vehicles and aerodynamics. Heattended the Shanghai Summer Symposium on Science and World Affiars in 1999, which becamethe starting point of his interest in arms control studies. His research now is focused on missiledefense.

EUGENE GHOLZ is Assistant Professor at the University of Kentucky's Patterson School. His RESEARCHwork primarily concerns defense management and the creation of national power. Specific AFFILIATESquestions include how the government should decide what weapons to buy, how and when tostimulate technological innovation, and how to manage business-government relations, especiallyin high technology, from both business and government perspectives. During the 1998-99 aca-demic year, Dr. Gholz taught in George Mason University's International Commerce and PolicyProgram. Prior to that, he was a national security fellow at Harvard University's Olin Institute ofStrategic Studies. He received his Ph.D. from the MIT Department of Political Science.

DARYL PRESS is Assistant Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. His researchfocuses on U.S. foreign policy, crisis decision-making, military forces and operations, and theconnections between economics and war. Professor Press is finishing a book manuscript thatexamines the effects of a country's actions in one crisis on its credibility in future crises. In otherprojects, he is finishing an article with Prof. Eugene Gholz on the effects of wars on oil prices.Professor Press is also a consultant at the RAND Corporation where he has worked on manystudies relating to U.S. military planning in the Persian Gulf region and Korea.

23

LAURA REED received her Ph.D. in Political Science from the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology in February 1995, and was an Assistant Professor at Wellesley College during thespring semester of 1995. Formerly a program officer for the Committee on International SecurityStudies (CISS) at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, she has edited CISS volumesincluding: Lethal Commerce: The Global Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons (with JeffreyBoutwell and Michael Klare), Collective Responses to Regional Problems. The Case of LatinAmerica and the Caribbean (with Robert Pastor and Carl Kaysen), and Emerging Norms ofJustified Intervention (with Carl Kaysen). Her current research examines the feasibility of aUnited Nations military force.

JORN SILJEHOLM holds a Ph.D. inenvironmental chemistry, risk analysisand toxicology from the University ofOslo. He served as a weapons inspectorin Iraq with the United Nations(UNMOVIC) from 2002-2003. Affili-ated with SSP since 1994, he spent thefour previous years at MIT's Center forTechnology, Policy and IndustrialDevelopment, and was primary initiatorand fundraiser for the MIT ChlorineProject, begun in 1991. He served asenvironmental chemist and environ-mental advisor for Esso Norwayrefineries, advisor to CONCAWE, theEuropean oil companies' joint researchorganization, and Executive ViceD-;A~n-n rr +rrmmlniatirsnc! atI UaSlt 11[Ul 1 .1UVIIIIIgLu aLLIuI at

Norway's largest finance company, Jorn couldn't find the WMD eitherStorebrand. He was executive directorof aturevernforbundet, the Norwegian Society for the Conservation of Nature, and chaired theNorwegian Research Organization for Pharmacology and Toxicology. Leading up to the 1992 UNConference on Environment and Development, he authored the statement of non-governmentalorganizations.

EMERITI CARL KAYSEN is David W. Skinner Professor of Political Economy Emeritus in the Program inScience, Technology, and Society and a Senior Lecturer at the MIT Center for InternationalStudies. Dr. Kaysen earned his B.A. in Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, and hisPh.D. at Harvard University, where he was an economics professor from 1950-1966. From 1966until 1976, when he came to MIT, he was Director of the Institute for Advanced Study atPrinceton and from 1961-1963 he was the Deputy Special Assistant for National Security Affairsto President Kennedy. He has served as a consultant to RAND, the Defense Department, and theCIA. Chairman of the Committee on Security Studies of the American Academy of Arts andSciences, Dr. Kaysen is currently engaged in a series of studies under the auspices of the Commit-tee on the role of international law and international norms in providing peace and security.


MARVIN M. MILLER recently retired from the position of Senior Research Scientist in theDepartment of Nuclear Engineering at MIT. He is now a Research Affiliate at the MIT Center forInternational Studies and the Department of Nuclear Engineering. After undergraduate work atthe City College of New York, he received an M.A. in Physics from the University of Rochesterand a Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering from the Polytechnic Institute of New York. Prior to joiningMIT in 1976, Dr. Miller was an Associate Professor of electrical engineering at Purdue Universityconducting research on laser theory and applications. At MIT his research has focused on armscontrol, particularly nuclear proliferation, and the environmental impacts of energy use. In theproliferation area, his major interests are the Middle East and South Asia; he has also worked onsuch issues as international safeguards and export controls on sensitive nuclear technologies, thedisposition of plutonium from retired nuclear weapons, and the proliferation implications offoreign nationals studying at U.S. universities. From 1984 to 1986, Dr. Miller was a Foster Fellowwith the Nuclear Weapons and Control Bureau of the U.S. Arms Control and DisarmamentAgency, and is currently a consultant on proliferation issues for the State Department and theArgonne National Laboratory.

GEORGE W. RATHJENS became Professor in the Department of Political Science after servicewith the Institute for Defense Analyses, the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, theAdvanced Research Projects Agency of the Department of Defense, the Office of the President'sScience Advisor, and the Weapons Evaluation Group of the Department of Defense. He has alsoserved in the Department of State. Dr. Rathjens received his B.S. from Yale University andcompleted his Ph.D. in chemistry at the University of California at Berkeley. He has been activein a number of associations, including the Council for a Livable World and the Federation ofAmerican Scientists both of which he has been Chairman. He is now secretary-general of thePugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs. Dr. Rathjens' major policy interests arenuclear arms issues, environmental problems, with special emphasis on conflict and the environ-ment, and post-Cold War international security questions, including particularly problems ofintervention in instances of ethnic and intrastate conflict.

JACK RUINA is Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering. Dr. Ruina was an undergraduateat the City College of New York and did his graduate work at the Polytechnic Institute of Brook-lyn, earning his MEE and DEE there. He has been granted the Outstanding Alumnus Award fromboth colleges. He taught at Brown University and the University of Illinois; at the latter he alsoheaded the Radar Division of the Control System Laboratory. While on leave from the Universityof Illinois, he served in several senior positions at the Department of Defense, the last beingDirector of the Advanced Research Projects Agency and was honored with the Fleming Award forbeing one of ten outstanding young men in government in 1962. He served on many governmentcommittees including a presidential appointment to the General Advisory Committee, 1969-1977,and acted as Senior Consultant to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy,1977-1980. He also held the post of President of the Institute for Defense Analyses. At MIT, hehas held the position of Vice President for Special Laboratories and was Secretary of the MITFaculty. Dr. Ruina remains an honorary member of the Board of Trustees for The MITRECorporation. He was instrumental in establishing the Security Studies Program and was its firstDirector. Dr. Ruina's special interest is in strategic weapons policy.

25

SEMINAR and DINNER SERIES

The Security Studies Wednesday Seminar Series provides a forum for discussing currentsecurity topics and the varying disciplinary perspectives on security studies. This is theProgram's primary seminar series, held in the traditional Wednesday 12-noon timeslot.Summaries of this series are posted electronically at our website: http://web.mit.edu/ssp

September 18Into Tibet: An Early CIA ConnectionThomas LairdFreelance Writer and Photographer

September 25Organizational Change in Uncertain Times:The U.S. Military and Millennium Challenge2002Donald Chisholm, ProfessorNaval War College

October 2The 11 Days of ChristmasMarshall Michel, Ph.D. CandidateAuburn University

October 9

The British Army and the Conduct ofWarfare, 1914-1918Ian Beckett, Visiting ProfessorU.S. Marine Corps University

October 16

Where in the World is the US Army?BG Daniel Kaufman, USADean, U.S. Military Academy

October 30State Sovereignty and TerritoryThomas Biersteker, DirectorWatson Institute, Brown University

November 6U.S. Security Strategy in East AsiaRADM Michael McDevitt, USN (ret), DirectorCenter for Strategic Studies, CNA Corporation

November 13The USS Pueblo IncidentMitchell Lerner, ProfessorOhio State University

November 20NATO ExpansionWade Jacoby, ProfessorBrigham Young University

December 4

Preventing Nuclear TerrorismGraham Allison, DirectorBelfer Center, Harvard University

October 23

Can the United States Bring Peace to theMiddle East?Jeremy Pressman, FellowBelfer Center, Harvard University


SSP WEDNESDAYSEMINAR SERIES

FALL 2002

26

February 12

Coercive Diplomacy: What Do We Know?Robert J. Art, ProfessorBrandeis University

April 9Technology and Defense TransformationElihu Zimet, Senior Research FellowNational Defense University

SSP WEDNESDAYSEMINAR SERIESSPRING 2003

February 19

Competing for Foreign Military Contracts:The Financial ConnectionPeter Evans, Ph.D. CandidateDept. of Political Science, MIT

February 26

Terrorist Campaigns: What Can DeterrenceContribute to the War on Terror?Brad Roberts, Research MemberInstitute for Defense Analyses

March 5Transforming the Navy's Surface CombatantForceEric Labs, Principal AnalystNaval Weapons and ForcesCongressional Budget Office

April 16Taking Nanotechnology from the Lab to theSoldier: The ISNEdwin Thomas, ProfessorDept. of Materials Science and Engineering MIT;Director of the Institute for SoldierNanotechnologies

April 23An Iraqi Post MortemLt. Gen. Bernard Trainor, USMC (ret.)Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations

May 14The 1964 Gilpatric Committee and Originsof America's Counterproliferation PolicyFrank Gavin, ProfessorUniversity of Texas

March 12

Regional Ramifications of an AmericanAttack on IraqEfraim Inbar, ProfessorBegin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies

April 2Blood, Oil and SUVsMike LynchManaging DirectorStrategic Energy & Economic Research, Inc.andDaniel LandauPh.D. CandidateDept. of Political Science, MIT

27


Our Special Seminar series offers the program the opportunity to hear on short notice fromspecialists on current issues. Often the session is co-sponsored by one of our working groups andstems from the group's research interest.

October 25Assessing China's Ambitions in East AsiaPaul Heer, Senior China AnalystCIA

January 13Middle East Regional Security Assessment:A Jordanian PerspectiveDr. Abdullah Toukan, Former Science Advisor toKing Hussein of Jordon

May 15Humanitarians on the Sidelines: Challengesof Multilateralism in IraqRaymond Offenheiser, PresidentOxfam America

July 1Problems in Estimating Biowarfare/Bioterrorism Capabilities and ThreatsSanford Weiner, Research AffiliateMIT Security Studies Program

February 10Iraq, North Korea and U.S.-China SecurityRelationsShen Dingli, ProfessorFudan University, Shanghai, China

STAR SERIESSEMINARS

This series offers the program an opportunity to hear from senior government officials andmilitary officers.

February 6Iraq, North Korea and U.S.-China SecurityRelationsAmbassador Robert Gallucci, DeanWalsh School of Foreign Service, GeorgetownUniversity; Former Deputy Executive Chairman ofUNSCOMCo-sponsored with the Center for InternationalStudies

June 25Yellow Smoke: American WarfareTransformedGen Robert Scales, USA (ret.)Former Commandant, Army War College


SPECIALSEMINARS

28

This series reviews America's War on Terrorism.

September 11The War on Terror One Year LaterFaculty of the MIT Security Studies Program

March 19Iraq War II UpdateFaculty of the MIT Security Studies Program

AMERICA'SNEW WAR

April 11Iraq Findings and Analysis: Chemical andMultidisciplinary WeaponsJorn SiljeholmWeapons Inspector, UNMOVIC andResearch Affiliate, MIT Security Studies Program

This series highlighted different aspects of modern U.S. military capabilities, with special

attention on U.S. operations in the war against Iraq.

October 25Army Engineers: Capabilities andContributions to Today's ArmyCol. Greg Martin, USA130 Engineer Brigade, USA Europe

November 11Marine Expeditionary WarfareCol. Brooks Brewington, USMC, Military FellowMIT Security Studies Program

November 15The Implications of Accuracy in ModernMilitary OperationsTheodore Postol, ProfessorMIT Security Studies Program

November 22The U.S. Army Vision: QuantifyingCapabilities and ReadinessLt. Col. Billy Don Farris, USA, Military FellowMIT Security Studies Program

December 5Warfare from the Company Commanders'PerspectiveCol. Brooks Brewington, USMC, Military FellowLt. Col. Billy Don Farris, USA, Military FellowMIT Security Studies Program

December 12Missile Defenses in a Possible War in IraqTechnology GroupMIT Security Studies Program

December 13Campaign Analysis and the Coming WarDaryl Press, Assistant ProfessorDartmouth College

December 20Analyzing Foreign MilitaryCIA Group

FORCEANALYSISSERIES

29


BIOTERRORISM SSP co-sponsored two Bioterrorism/Biowarfare series. The first series was done in conjunctionSERIES with the Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology.

February 2

Introduction to Bioterrorist Agents andMedical ResponseDr. Sharon Wright, DirectorHospital Epidemiology, Division of InfectiousDisease, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center

February 2

Policy and Organizational IssuesSanford Weiner, Research AffiliateMIT Security Studies Program

February 20

The 2001 Postal Anthrax Letter AttacksJeanne Guillemin, ProfessorBoston College

March 5

Security Countermeasures: A Role for theBiomedical Engineer/Scientist?Jeffrey Borenstein, DirectorBiomedical Engineering Center, Draper Laboratory;Associate Director, Center for Integration ofInnovative Medicine and Technology

March 13

Biological Warfare: The Political SciencePerspectiveGregory Koblentz, Ph.D. CandidateDept. of Political Science, MIT

March 27

Smallpox: From Eradicated Disease toBioterrorism ThreatJonathan Tucker, Senior FellowU.S. Institute of Peace; Former Director, Chemicaland Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Program,Monterey Institute


This series was done in conjunction with Harvard University's Belfer Center and the HarvardSussex Program on CBW Armament and Arms Limitation.

March 20The Uncertainly Horrifying Prospect ofBW: International Risks, Responses andDilemmasPaul Schulte, DirectorProliferation and Arms Control, UK Ministryof Defence

March 20The Legacy of HiroshimaThomas Schelling, Distinguished ProfessorUniversity of Maryland; Professor Emeritus,Harvard University

April 3Biological Weapons in the InternationalSystem: Future ProspectsAmbassador Donald MahleyActing Deputy Assistant Secretary, Multilateral andConventional Arms Control, U.S. Dept. of State

May 1Controlling Pathogens: Prospects for ExportControls on Biological AgentsElisa Harris, Research FellowCenter for International and Security StudiesUniversity of Maryland

May 22Changing Perceptions of Biological Warfare:From the First and the Second Edition ofthe World Health Organization ManualJulian Perry Robinson, Professorial FellowSPRU-Science and Technology Policy Research,University of Sussex, England; Co-Director,Harvard Sussex Program

April 17The Future of the Chemical Weapons BanRobert Mikulak, DirectorOffice of Chemical and Biological WeaponsConventions, Bureau of Arms ControlU.S. Dept. of State

Arpil 24Making Threats: The History of the BritishBiological Weapons ProgrammeBrian Balmer, Senior Lecturer in Science PolicyUniversity College, London

31

BIOWARFARESERIES


TECHNICALSEMINARS

MIT SSP organizes the Technical Seminars as a means of bringing together the researchers in theCambridge area working on technical aspects of arms control and security policy. These seminarsemphasize presentations about technical work-in-progress by local researchers, with occasionalseminars by outside speakers, and are often held as dinner meetings.

September 26Informal Discussion on Iraq's WeaponsCapabilityWilliam Scott Ritter, Jr., Former Chief InspectorUN Special Commission

October 10Deployment of Nuclear Weapons and EarlyWarning in South AsiaRamana V Mani, ResearcherProgram in Global SecurityPrinceton University

October 31Non-Proliferation TrustThomas B. Cochran, Nuclear Program DirectorNatural Resource Defense Council

November 7Nuclear Energy and its Competitors inMitigating Climate ChangeRobert Williams, Senior ScientistPrinceton's Environmental Institute

November 21

Space-Based InterceptorsQiu Yong, Research FellowMIT Security Studies Program

December 5Technology of Boost Phase Missile DefenseDavid Mosher, Senior Nuclear AnalystRAND's National Security Research Division

February 13A Physicist's Guide to the LandmineProblem: Theory and ExperimentPeter Weichman, Senior ScientistALPHATECH, Inc.

March 18The North Korean Nuclear Program:Technical and Policy IssuesRobert Alvarez, Senior ScholarInstitute for Policy StudiesandYo Taik Song, Former Visiting Research FellowKorea Atomic Energy Research Institute

March 31Radiological Terrorism and RadioactiveSource SecurityCharles Ferguson, Scientist-in-ResidenceCenter for Nonproliferation StudiesMonterey Institute

April 10Atoms for Peace: Ending the Use of HighlyEnriched Uranium in the Nuclear FuelCycle: Options, Perspectives and ChallengesAlex Glaser, Visiting FellowMIT Security Studies Program

April 24Cleanup at the DOE Weapons ComplexJohn Ahearne, DirectorEthics Program, Sigma XI - The ScientificResearch Society


This series provides an opportunity for our military visitors to explain weapon developmentswithin their service. It provides the non-professional with an introduction to the professional'stools.

October 21

UAVs Today and UAVs in the FutureCol. Ed Boyle, USA (ret.), Deputy DirectorPlans and Programs, Command Solution Operation,SAIC

February 13

Defense of the U.S. SkiesLt.Col. John Whisenhunt, USAFChief of Current Intelligence, Continental NorthAmerican Aerospace Defense Command

COL Kevin Benson(2001-02 Army Fellow) in Kuwait

33

WEAPONSSEMINARS


Each year, SSP Faculty and Fellows give a series of talks and classes at two defense researchfacilities: Draper Laboratory in Cambridge, MA and, MIT's Lincoln Laboratory in Lexington, MA.

DRAPER LABTALKS

July 29

Issues in Missile DefenseTheodore Postol, ProfessorMIT Security Studies Program

June 3

The North Korea Nuclear Problem andU.S.-China RelationsThomas Christensen, ProfessorMIT Security Studies Program

December 20

The Islamist Movement in Pakistan and theOctober 2002 Elections: Implications for theWar on TerrorJuan Cole, ProfessorUniversity of Michigan

April 4

Technology R&D: Some Lessons fromHistoryDavid Mindell, ProfessorScience, Technology and Society Program, MIT

February 21

Japan/North KoreaRichard Samuels, Professor and Director, Centerfor International Studies, MIT


LINCOLN LABTALKS

34

For several years the MIT Security Studies Program, in conjunction with The Olin Institute andthe Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard, has presented the Future ofWar dinner series on the belief that war does indeed have a future.

November 13

U.S. Response to Global Security ChallengesMIT Faculty Club, Cambridge, MA

Lincoln P. Bloomfield Jr., Assistant U.S.Secretary of State for the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs spoke on the Western Allianceand the effort to contain Iraq. SecretaryBloomfield reviewed the discussions withallies and within the government to gain acommon perspective on Iraq's defiance of UN

resolutions. In the audience was ProfessorEmeritus Lincoln P. Bloomfield of MIT, ourpolitical science colleague and himself alongtime participant in the making of U.S.foreign policy.

April 17

The Tenth Annual General James H.Doolittle Conference: Space and SecurityMIT Faculty Club, Cambridge, MA

This year, the hundredth anniversary ofmanned flight, our dinner speaker and Doolittleaward recipient was Alex Roland, the notedmilitary historian. Professor Roland is profes-sor of history at Duke University, a graduate ofthe U.S. Naval Academy, the University ofHawaii, and received his doctorate from DukeUniversity. He has been a Dibner Fellow atMIT, president of the Society for the History ofTechnology, a historian at NASA, and a visitingprofessor at both the Army War College and theU.S. Naval Academy. His most recent book wasStrategic Computing: DARPA and the QuestforMachine Intelligence, (MIT Press, 2002).

Professor Roland in his keynote talk reviewedAmerica's military, economic, technologicaland cultural involvement with manned flight.Aviation is linked closely with the Americanera as the source and expression of Americanpower, according to Roland.

The Doolittle Award commemorates theachievement of Jimmy Doolittle, American warhero, aviation pioneer, businessman, and MITgraduate (SM '24, PhD '25).

35

FUTURE OF WAR

GENERALJAMES H.DOOLITTLEDINNER

CONFERENCES and WORKSHOPS

January 22Cyberwarfare ConferenceMIT Faculty Club, Cambridge, MA

This conference explored ways of improvingstrategic thinking on information/cyberwarfareto create a sustained dialogue and researchagenda on the topic. It was based on the beliefthat an independent dialogue between technol-ogy and security studies specialists on thedangers and opportunities of informationwarfare, and cyberwarfare, specifically, wouldbenefit all. The event's keynote speaker wasRichard Clarke, Special Advisor to the Presi-dent for Cyberspace Security. Guests includedcybersecurity experts in government, privateand public sectors.

June 10Bioterrorism Preparedness: A Conferencefor Senior Practitioners and ProfessionalsKennedy School of GovernmentHarvard University

The threat of bioterrorism- made tangible byanthrax attacks (real and false alarms), thesmallpox vaccination program, and the ana-logues of emergent infectious diseases likeWest Nile virus and SARS -poses majorissues for government and the health caresystem. Many policies and response strategiesremain uncertain, and financial resources andorganizational capabilities are often problem-atic. This conference was aimed at concernedsenior practitioners in New England - policyofficials, managers, and professionals - notonly from public health and emergency medi-cine but also from public safety and emergencymanagement agencies. Conference speakerswho included academics and leading practitio-ners, discussed research findings and operatingexperiences on a range of critical bioterrorismpreparedness topics. The conference was co-sponsored with Lincoln Laboratory.


FIELD TRIPS

October 11Tour of the USS Hue City (CG66)Port Visit, Boston, MA

March 7Naval Undersea Warfare CenterNewport, RI

March 31Army Joint Readiness Training CenterFt. Polk, LA

F-22s visit the Rockies

37

PUBLICATIONS

PROGRAMPUBLICATIONS

MIT SECURITY STUDIESCONFERENCE SERIES

MIT SECURITY STUDIESWORKING PAPERS

"National Security Space Policy in the U.S. andEurope: Trends and Choices," by Eugene Gholzis a summary of a MIT Security StudiesGeneral James H. Doolittle Conference of thesame title held on April 22-23, 2002 at the MITFaculty Club, Cambridge, MA.

Michael Schrage, "Perfect Information andPerverse Incentives: Costs and Consequencesof Transformation and Transparency," SSPWorking Paper WP03-1, May 2002.


BREAKTHROUGHSVOL. XII, NO. 1 SPRING 2003

EARLY WARNINGSSP Newsletter, produced eight times per year.

Harvey Sapolsky, "War Needs a Warning Label"

George N. Lewis, "How the U.S. ArmyAssessed as Successful a Missile Defense thatFailed Completely "

Vanda Felbabova, "Getting Hooked:The Insurgency/Drug Nexus"

Heather S. Gregg, "Divided They Conquer: TheSuccess of Armenian Ethnic Lobbies in the U.S."

Michael A. Glosny, "Mines Against Taiwan:A Military Analysis of a PRC Blockade"

Faculty Spotlight: Allison Macfarlane

K~Ml

XVar Needs a Warning Lael

Hon the It S. Army Ascessed as Successfula Missile Defense that Failed Completels 9

Getting Hooked: 17Irh it urgec/Drg ehxul s

Di ided They Conquer: The Slleess ofkrmenian Ithnic .obbhhies in the I.S. 25'trh'tr X (h%.?

Mines Against Taian: A Militars Analssisof a PRC Blockade 3

GIithrL 34 1ii

Also in this issule: Facuhly ,ptlight: \1l ......\lacfftnlae: SSP Recent Pubhlation- 41

WXgTSSf Security Studies Program1M O P oar Massachusetts Institute of Technology

What's eeIl Nlappening

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39

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PUBLICATIONS

Robert Art, The Useof Force, 6th edition,(Rowman andLittlefield, August2003).

Robert Art, A GrandStrategy for America,(Cornell UniversityPress, June 2003).

Robert Art, TheUnited States andCoercive Diplomacy, (Institute of Peace, May

Seyom BrownControl (The IInstitution, Jul

Seyom BrownForeign Policy and the Limits ofMilitary Might: A Review Essay," (Ananalysis of "The Dynamics ofCoercion" by Daniel Byman andMatthew Waxman) Political ScienceQuarterly, Vol. 117, No. 3 (Fall 2002).

Thomas Christensen, "OptimisticTrends and Near-Term Challenges:

Sino-American Security Relations in Early2003," China Leadership Monitor, No. 6(Spring 2003).

Thomas Christensen, "The Party Transition:Will It Bring a New Maturity in ChineseSecurity Policy?" China Leadership Monitor,No. 5, Winter 2003.

en, "A Smooth Ride Despitee Road to Crawford," China1r, Vol. 1, No. 4 (Fall 2002).

en, "The ContemporaryDeterring a Taiwan

hington Quarterly, 25:4

Juan Cole, Sacred Spaceand Holv War: ThePolitics, Culture andHistory qf Shi 'ite Islam(London: I.B. Tauris,2002).

Owen R. Cote, Jr.,"Weapons of MassConfusion," The BostonReview, April/May, 2003.

Owen Cote, he ThirdBattle. Innovation in the US. Navy s SilentCold War Strugglewvith SovietSubmarines,Newport Paper No.16 (Naval WarCollege Press, 2003).

Geoffrey Forden,"Laser Defenses:What If TheyWork?" The Bulletinof the Atomic3LinntiUuto fo' /tOCltUrll33 tOtL.)Lt.

2002).


FACULTY ANDAFFILIATE

PUBLICATIONS

__A. . . ... .. . . . .

40

Andrea Gabbitas, "Prospects for U.S. RussianNonproliferation Cooperation Under Bush andPutin," BSCIA Discussion Paper, John FKennedy School of Government, HarvardUniversity (October 2002).

Eugene Gholz and Daryl Press, "Paying toKeep the Peace," Regulation (Spring 2003).

Kelly Greenhill, "The Use of Refugees asPolitical and Military Weapons in the KosovoConflict," in Raju G.C. Thomas, ed. YugoslaviaUnravelled: Sovereignty, Self-DeterminationIntervention (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books/Rowman and Littlefield, 2003).

Kelly Greenhill, "Engineered Migration andthe Use of Refugees as Political Weapons: ACase Study of 1994 Cuban Balseros Crisis,"International Migration, Vol. 40, No. 4 (Fall2002).

Lisbeth Gronlund and David Wright,"Estimating China's Production of Plutoniumfor Weapons," Science and Global Security(Spring 2003).

Lisbeth Gronlund, David Wright, and StephenYoung, "An Assessment of the Intercept TestProgram of the Ground-Based MidcourseNational Missile Defense System," Defenseand Security Analysis, Vol. 18, No. 3, 2002.

Eric Heginbotham and Richard Samuels,"Japan," in Richard Ellings and AaronFriedberg, eds., Strategic Asia 2002-2003,Asian Aftershocks, (Seattle, WA: NationalBureau of Asian Research, 2002).

Eric Heginbotham, "The Fall and Rise ofNavies in East Asia: Military Organizations,Domestic Politics and Grand Strategy,"International Security (Fall 2002).

Eric Heginbotham and George Gilboy,"Getting Realism: US Asia (and China) PolicyReconceived," in The National Interest, (Fall2002).

Allison Macfarlane, et. al., "Reducing theHazards from Stored Spent Power-ReactorFuel in the United States," Science and GlobalSecurity, vol. 11, 2003.

Allison Macfarlane, "Yucca Mountain,"Science (Sept. 2002).

Joyce Malcolm, "Disarming History: How anAward-winning Scholar Twisted the TruthAbout America's Gun Culture - and AlmostGot Away With It," Reason (March 2003).

Joyce Malcolm, "Gun Control's TwistedOutcome," Reason (November 2002).

Marvin Miller, "Attempts to Reduce theProliferation of Nuclear Power: Past andCurrent Initiatives," in Paul Leventhal, SharonTanzer, and Steven Dolley, eds., Nuclear Powerand the Spread of Nuclear Weapons,(Washington, DC, Brasseys, 2002).

Marvin Miller, "The Iraqi Nuclear Program:Past, Present, and Future?" in S.L. Spiegel,J.D. Kibbe, and E.G. Matthews, eds, TheDynamics of Middle East NuclearProliferation, (The Edwin Mellon Press, 2002).

41

Olya Oliker and Tanya Charlick-Paley,"Assessing Russia's Decline: Trends andImplications for the United States and the U.S.Air Force," The United States Air ForceReport, November 2002.

Barry Posen, "La Maitrise des espaces,fondement de l'h6g6monie militaire des Etats-Unis," Politique Etrangere, Vol. 1, 2003.

Barry Posen, "The Struggle Against Terrorism:Grand Strategy, Strategy, and Tactics," inTerrorism and Counterterrorism:Understanding the New Security Environment,Russell D. Howard and Reid L. Sawyer, eds.,(McGraw-Hill, 2002).

Christopher Twomey, "The Dangers ofOverreaching: International Relations Theory,The US-Japan Alliance, and China," inBenjamin L. Self and Jeffrey W. Thompson,eds., An Alliance for Engagement: BuildingCooperation in Security Relations with China,(Henry L. Stimson Center, 2002).

David Wright, "The Target Set for MissileDefense Intercept Test IFT-9," Union ofConcerned Scientists Working Paper (Oct.2002).

Laura Reed and Seth Shulman, "A PerilousPath to Security? Weighing U.S. 'Biodefense'against Qualitative Proliferation," in SusanWright, editor, Biological Warfare andDisarmament: New Problems/NewPerspectives (Rowman and LittlefieldPublishers, 2002).

Robert Ross, "Navigating the Taiwan Strait:Deterrence, Escalation, Dominance and US-China Cooperation," International Security,Vol. 27, No. 2 (Fall 2002).

Richard Samuels and Eric Heginbotham,"Japan's Dual Hedge," Foreign Affairs (Sept./Oct. 2002).

Harvey Sapolsky, "Inventing SystemsIntegration," in Andrea Prencipe and AndrewDavies, eds., The Business of SystemsIntegration (Oxford University Press, 2003).

Harvey Sapolsky, "The Science and Politics ofDefense Analysis," in Ham Cravens, ed., TheSocial Sciences Go to Washington (RutgersUniversity Press, 2003).


SSP TEACHING

O ur Program's courses - what MITprefers to call subjects - are open to all

students eligible to attend classes at MIT,including cross-enrollers from Harvard andWellesley. Most of the subjects are offered atthe graduate level and through the PoliticalScience Department.

Political Science doctoral candidates may useSecurity Studies as one of their fields ofconcentration. Within that context, securitystudies has two principal objectives: first, itintroduces the student to the study of Americandefense policy, including the policy process,arms control, force structure, and militarybudgets. Second, it introduces the student to thestudy of the role of force in internationalpolitics and how countries have historicallypursued their security interests. Students areexpected to develop some competence in themethods of systems analysis, technologyassessment, and strategic reasoning that shapethe size and composition of U.S. strategicnuclear and general-purpose forces. Theinternational military competition, the pros-pects for arms control and their implicationsfor U.S. force planning receive special consid-eration in several subjects. Others examinesome of the same issues by contrasting U.S.experiences and approaches with those of rivalsand allies.

Students who plan to offer Security Studies forthe general examination take two graduate-level subjects from those listed below in theForces and Force Analysis section, and onesubject each from the listing in the DefensePolitics and in the Comparative Defense Policysections. Competence in technical analysis is

The shocking news: graduate students being briefed on the real world

required. A background in economics tointermediate level with particular emphasis onmacroeconomics and public finance is advis-able. The subjects in the Forces and ForceAnalysis section will provide sufficient reviewof the technical approaches to be examined.

The write-off requirement is three subjects withequal distribution among the three sectionspreferred although approval for alternativedistributions may be granted in consultationwith field faculty. A number of substantivefields in the Political Science Department dealwith important determinants of U.S. defenseprograms and expenditures. Among the mostclosely related are: American Politics, Interna-tional Relations and Foreign Policy. Students ofdefense policy are also encouraged to takesubjects in economics.

43

COURSES

17.476J/STS.435J Nuclear Forces and MissileDefenses Postol [G]Introduces the assessment of strategic nuclearforces. Emphasizes the development of forcerequirements and methods of analyzing alterna-tive force postures in terms of missions,effectiveness, and cost. The history of U.S.-Soviet strategic competition provides thebackdrop against which the evolution ofnuclear strategy and forces is considered.

17.477/STS.076 Technology and Policy ofWeapons Systems Postol [U]Examines in detail the technology of nuclearweapons systems. Topics include nuclearweapons design, effects, targeting, and deliv-ery; ballistic and air breathing missile propul-sion and guidance; communications and earlywarning techniques and systems; and anti-missile, air, and submarine systems. Combinesthe discussion of technical materials with thenational security policy issues raised by thecapabilities of those technologies. Considerssecurity issues from the distinct and oftenconflicting perspectives of technologists,military planners, and political leaders.

17.482-3J/STS 071J/STS 450J U.S. MilitaryPower Posen/Postol [U/G]Based on the concept of Grand Strategy as asystem of inter-connected political and militarymeans and ends. Topics covered include U.S.grand strategy, the organization of the U.S.military, the defense budget, ground forces,tactical air forces, naval forces, power projec-tion forces, and the control of escalation.Particular episodes of military history that offerinsights into current conventional forces issuesare examined. Graduate students are expectedto pursue the subject at greater depth throughreading and individual research.

17.40 American Foreign Policy:Past, Present, Future Van Evera [U]This subject's mission is to explain and evalu-ate America's past and present foreign policies.What accounts for America's past wars andinterventions? What were the consequences ofAmerican policies? Overall, were these conse-quences positive or negative for the U.S.? Forthe world? Using today's 20/20 hindsight, canwe now identify policies that would haveproduced better results? History coveredincludes World Wars I and II, the Korean andIndochina wars, and the Cuban Missile Crisis.Recent and contemporary crises and issues arealso covered.


FORCES ANDFORCE ANALYSIS

44

17.428 American Foreign Policy:Theory and Method Van Evera [G]Examines the causes and consequences ofAmerican foreign policy since 1898. Readingscover theories of American foreign policy,historiography of American foreign policy,central historical episodes including the twoWorld Wars and the Cold War, case studymethodology, and historical investigativemethods. Open to undergraduates by permis-sion of instructor.

17.460 Defense Politics Sapolsky [G]Examines the politics affecting U.S. defensepolicies. Includes consideration of intra- andinter-service rivalries, civil-military relations,contractor influences, congressional oversight,peace movements in historical and contempo-rary perspectives, and U.S. defense politicsbefore, during and after the Cold War.

17.486 Japan and East Asian SecuritySamuels [G]Explores Japan's role in world orders, past,present and future. Focuses on Japaneseconceptions of security; rearmament debates;the relationship of domestic politics to foreignpolicy; the impact of Japanese technologicaland economic transformation at home andabroad; alternative trade and security regimes;and relations with Asian neighbors, Russia, andthe alliance with the United States. Seminarculminates in a two-day Japanese-centeredcrisis simulation, based upon scenarios devel-oped by students.

17.407/17.408 Chinese Foreign PolicyChristensen [G]This course reviews and analyzes the foreignpolicy of the People's Republic of China from1949 to the present. Lectures discuss the ColdWar history of Beijing's relations with theSoviet Union, the U.S., Southeast Asia and theThird World. Various theories of foreign policyare discussed as potential tools for understand-ing Chinese foreign policy behavior. Andfinally, a discussion of the future of Chineseforeign policy in light of the end of the ColdWar, the Chinese economy and the post-Tiananmen legitimacy crisis in Beijing.

17.416 International Strategy Christensen[G]Analyzes and compares national securitystrategies, including military doctrine, alliancepolicies and foreign economic policy. Examin-ing how various factors such as internationalstructure, domestic politics, and leadershippsychology contribute to policy outcomes andhow different strategies act to stabilize ordestabilize the international system. Weexamine how variation in the internationaldistribution of power affects both individualnation's policies and international stability.

17.433/17.434 International Relations ofEast Asia Christensen [U/G]This lecture course will concentrate on theCold War and post Cold War internationalrelations of East Asia. In the first two weekswe will cover general theoretical approaches tointernational relations and a brief historicalbackdrop of Western and Japanese imperialismin the region. In the following weeks, we willdiscuss the interaction between changes in thebroader international system and changes ininternational relations of the East Asian region.The course will finish with discussion of theimplications of events and trends since the endof the Cold War for East Asian security andpolitical economy.

45

AMERICANDEFENSEPOLITICS

COMPARATIVEDEFENSE POLICY

17.462 Innovation in Military OrganizationsPosen and Sapolsky [G]Explores the origins, rate, and impact ofinnovations in military organizations, doctrineand weapons. Emphasis on organization theoryapproaches. Comparisons with non-militaryand non-U.S. experience included.

17.484 Comparative Grand Strategy andMilitary Doctrine Posen [G]A comparative study of the grand strategies andmilitary doctrine of the great powers in Europe(Britain, France, Germany, and Russia) fromthe late 19th to the mid-20th century. Examinesstrategic developments in the years precedingand during World Wars I and II. What factorshave exerted the greatest influence on nationalstrategies? How may the quality of a grandstrategy be judged? What consequences seem tofollow from grand strategies of different types?

17.423 Causes and Prevention of WarVan Evera [U]Examines the causes of war, with a focus onpractical measures to prevent and control war.Topics covered include: causes and conse-quences of national misperception; militarystrategy and policy as cause of war; U.S.foreign policy as a cause of war and peace;and the likelihood and possible nature ofanother world war.

17.432 Causes of War: Theory and MethodVan Evera [G]Examines the causes of war. Major theories ofwar are examined; case-study and large-nmethods of testing theories of war are dis-cussed; and the case-study method is applied toseveral historical cases. Cases covered includeWorld Wars I and II.

17.404 International Relations Theory andChina's Foreign Policy Christensen [G]This graduate seminar attempts to bridge thegap between Chinese area studies and interna-tional relations theory. Students think theoreti-cally about China's foreign relations and askwhat challenges Chinese cases pose for theexisting theoretical literature. Analysis of theapplicability of structural theories of interna-tional politics; two-level approaches that linkinternational and domestic factors; ideationaland normative approaches; and psychologicaltheories of leadership decision-making. Discus-sion of sources and methods in researchingChinese foreign policy.


COMPARATIVEDEFENSE POLICY

INTERNATIONAL-RELATED

46

17.468 Foundation of Security StudiesPosen [G]Aims to develop a working knowledge of thetheories and conceptual frameworks that formthe intellectual basis of security studies as anacademic discipline. Particular emphasis onbalance of power theory, organization theory,civil-military relations, and the relationshipbetween war and politics.

17.950 Great Power Military InterventionPosen [G]The purpose of this seminar is to examinesystematically, and comparatively, great andmiddle power military interventions into civilwars during the 1990s. The interventions to beexamined are the 1991 effort to protect theKurds in N. Iraq; the 1993 effort to amelioratefamine in Somalia; the 1994 effort to restorethe Aristide government in Haiti; the 1995effort to end the conflict in BosniaHerzegovina; and the 1999 NATO war to endSerbia's control of Kosovo. By way of com-parison, the weak efforts made to slow or stopthe 1994 genocide in Rwanda will also beexamined.

17.953 Organizational Theory and theMilitary Sapolsky [G]This joint seminar elaborates upon classicalorganizational concepts and methods to betterunderstand modem military organizations andto develop new theory. It reviews organiza-tional theory of the 1950s and 1960s andexamines its applicability to the modemmilitary. Among the topics covered are: recruit-ment, socialization and retention of personnel,unit cohesion, the effect of stress on perfor-mance, innovation and experiments, civil-military relations, the function of traditions,professionalism, federal-state relations,interservice relations, and the civilianization ofthe military.

A reservist goes to the zoo

47

ADVANCEDOFFERINGS

PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION

he MIT Security Studies Program has developed a growing interest in professional educa-tion as a way to stimulate discussion of international security problems and policy alterna-tives. Our initial activities have been through the MIT Professional Institute but we are now

exploring web-based and traveling courses as a way to reach a larger audience. We also offer anIndependent Activities Period course taught by officers from the Armed Forces Staff College andthe National Defense University on how the military carries out crisis planning in a worldcontingency.

Military Innovation:Technology and StrategyThis one-week course is organized by the MITSummer Professional Program and taught byfaculty from the MIT Security Studies Programas well as the Political Science Department. Inthe class sessions they examine the problems ofthreat assessment, civil/military relations, thefuture of defense industries, and technologicalchanges in designing corporate/nationalstrategies. Emphasis is placed on innovativesolutions and barriers to change.

Promoting Innovation: The Dynamics ofTechnology and OrganizationsAn MIT Professional Institute course offered inJuly. This course targets public and privatebusinesses concerned with innovation as ameans of keeping pace with a fast shiftingenvironment. The course covers such topics asthe innovation process, reshaping markets, andthe politics of innovation in both the privateand public sectors and is taught by, amongothers, Professor Sapolsky and MIT Fellows.

Combating Bioterrorism:The Organizational ResponseThis course examines the various institutionaland professional obstacles to cooperation inour fight against bioterrorism, and strategies toovercome them. Taught by SSP affiliates andpublic health experts, this course reviewshistorical experience and outlines policyalternatives.

Joint Crisis Action Planning ExerciseThis course looks at how the U.S. ArmedForces support the achievement of nationalstrategic aims in a changing strategic environ-ment. Topics include national security struc-ture and organization, the Joint StrategicPlanning System, capabilities and limitationsof the Armed Services and Special Operationforces, and crisis action procedures. Thecourse culminates in a simulated humanitarianassistance staff planning session in whichstudents are assigned to key positions.


SSP-AFFILIATED GRADUATE STUDENTS

Alan Kuperman, Ph.D., Political Science"Tragic Challenges and the Moral Hazard of Humanitarian Intervention: How and Why Ethnic GroupsProvoke Genocidal Retaliation"

Sarah Lischer, Ph.D., Political Science"Catalysts of Conflict: How Refugee Crises Lead to the Spread of Civil War"

Suzanne Greenstein, SM, Political Science"Imperfect Partners: Understanding the Challenges and Failures of US-Russian NonproliferationAssistance Cooperation"

Chung Hyun Lee, SM, Political Science"Liberal States, International Norms, and the Politics of War Crimes Tribunals"

SSP-AFFILIATEDDEGREERECIPIENTS

Boaz Atzili

Rafael Bonoan

Danny Breznitz

David Burbach

Marc Devore

Michael Eastman

Vanda Felbabova

Andrea Gabbitas

Michael George

Peter Goldstone

Hebrew University(BA, Int'l Relations)

Columbia University(BA, Int'l Security)

Hebrew Uninversity(BA, Political Science)(MA, Government)

Pomona College(BA, Government)

Claremont McKennaCollege(BA, IR and Economics)

Institut D'EtudesPolitiques(MA, Political Science)

U.S. Military Academy(BS, Political Science)

Harvard University(BA, Government)

University of Chicago(BA, Political Science)

U.S. Military Academy(BS, Political Science)

Oxford University(MA, Philosophy/Politics)

University of Chicago(BA, Political Science)

Kelly Greenhill

Michael Glosny

Heather Gregg

Yinan He

Eric Heginbotham

Kathleen Hicks

U.Calif-Berkeley(BA, Political Economy/Scandinavian Studies)

MIT(SM, Political Science)

Cornell University(BA, History/Government)

U.Calif-Santa Cruz(BA, Cultural Anthropology)Harvard Divinity(MA, Theology)

Beijing University(BA, Int'l Politics)

Fudan University(MA, Int'l Politics)

Swarthmore College(BA, Political Science)

Mount Holyoke College(BA, History and Politics)'

University of Maryland(MA, Public Management)

Michal Ben-Josef Hirsch Tel Aviv University(BA, Political Science)

Gregory Koblentz Kennedy School,Harvard University(MA, Public Policy)

49

Ph.D.CANDIDATESPOST-GENERALS

SSP-AFFILIATED GRADUATE STUDENTS

Ph.D.CANDIDATES

POST-GENERALS

Daniel Landau

Evan Liaras

Jennifer Lind

David Mendeloff

Olya Oliker

Jonathan Payne

University of SouthernCalifornia

(BA, Print Journalism)

Harvard University(BA, History)

U.Calif-Berkeley(BA, English)

U.Calif-San Diego(MPIA, IR/Pacific Studies)

Pitzer College,Claremont(BA, Int'l Relations)

Kennedy School,Harvard University(MA, Int'l Affairs)

Emory University(BA, Int'l Studies)

Brigham Young Univ.(MA, Int'l Relations)(BA, Int'l Politics)

Joshua Rovner

Todd Stiefler

Christopher Twomey

Chikako Ueki

Timothy Wolters

Boston College(MA, Political Science)

U. Calif-San Diego(BA, Political Science)

Williams College(BA, Political Science/Economics)

U. Calif- San Diego(MA, Pacific Int'l Affairs)(BA, Economics)

Sophia University(BA, Int'l Relations/French)

U. of Maryland(MA, American History)

Univ. of Notre Dame(BA, ComputerApplications)

PRE-GENERALSor MASTER'S

STUDENTS

Ryan Crow

Michael Faerber

Oliver Fritz

Adam Horst

Shirley Hung

Bowdoin College(BA, Biology andAnthropology)

Brandeis University(BA, Politics)

U.Calif-Berkeley(BA, Political Science)

Dartmouth College(BA, Government and

BA, Psychology)

Harvard University(BA, Government)

Colin Jackson

Richard Kraus

Austin Long

Vikram Mansharamani

William Norris

Univ. of Pennsylvania(MBA, Finance)

Johns Hopkins/SAIS(MA, Int'l Economics)

Princeton University(BA, Political Science)

U. Chicago(BA, Political Science)

Georgia Institute ofTechnology(BS, Politics)

Yale University(BA, East Asian Studies andEthics, Politics & Economics)

Princeton University(BA, Politics)


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SSP DIRECTORY

FACULTY HARVEY M. SAPOLSKYProfessor of Public Policy and OrganizationDirector of the MIT Security Studies Program

(617) 253-5265

OWEN R. COTE, JR.Associate Director; Principal Research Scientist

(617) 258-7428

GEOFFREY FORDENSenior Research Associate

(617) 452-4097

DANIEL HASTINGS (617) 253-0906Professor ofAeronautics andAstronautics & Engineering Syst.

GEORGE N. LEWIS (617) 253-3846Associate Director,' Principal Research Scientist

ALLISON MACFARLANESenior Research Associate

(617) 253-0736

DAVID MINDELL (617) 253-0221Dibner Professor of Manufacturing and Technology

BARRY R. POSEN (617) 253-8088Professor of Political Science

THEODORE A. POSTOLProfessor of Science, Technology and National Security Policy

(617) 253-8077

RICHARD SAMUELSFord Professor of Political Science

(617) 253-2449

MERRITT ROE SMITH (617) 253-4008Professor of the History of Technology

STEPHEN VAN EVERAProfessor of Political Science

(617) 253-0530

CINDY WILLIAMSPrincipal Research Scientist

(617) 253-1825

MAGDALENA RIEBAssistant Director

HEIDI LABASHLYNNE LEVINEHARLENE MILLERBRANDI SLADEK

(617) 258- 7608


STAFF

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Massachusetts Institute of Technology SECURITY STUDIES …

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