Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI) - ICICI...

ICIC

I S

ecurit

ies –

Retail E

quit

y R

esearch

Result

Update

October 25, 2019

CMP: | 7,396 Target: | 6,420 (-13%) Period: 12 months

months

Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)

REDUCE

Muted quarter; volume trough seemingly in sight…

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported a muted Q2FY20 performance. Total

operating income was at | 16,985 crore, down 24.3% YoY (ASP at | 4.76

lakh/unit, up 2.4% QoQ). Q2FY20 volumes were at 3.4 lakh units, down

30.2% YoY. EBITDA margins at 9.5% (down 93 bps QoQ) were at a multi-

year low, impacted by negative operating leverage. Consequent PAT was at

| 1,359 crore (down 39.4% YoY), supported by higher other income and

adoption of lower corporate tax rate. MSIL’s working capital position

deteriorated significantly. It generated negative CFO in H1FY20.

FY20E a write-off, BS-VI transition more palatable for PV space

The PV segment has suffered heavily amid the overall auto space weakness

that has persisted since the 2018 festive period. Rise in ownership costs

(additional safety features, higher fuel prices), slowing consumption

demand and increasing preference for shared mobility in some pockets

posed volume challenges to players. YTDFY20 volume decline at MSIL was

at ~25% YoY, which includes a steep decline of 30% in Q2FY20. We believe

BS-VI transition would be relatively more palatable for the PV segment since

envisaged price hike is limited to <=5% of vehicle costs (passenger cars,

largely petrol driven) vs. ~10% price hike in other segments (2-W & CV). For

MSIL, while BS-VI versions of eight products have already been introduced

(Alto, Baleno, Wagon R, Swift, Dzire, Ertiga, XL6 & S-Presso), the customer

response to alternative fuel cars (petrol, CNG) vs. their erstwhile diesel

variants (S-cross & Brezza) will be the key monitorable. This shift will dictate

the volume trajectory at MSIL, going forward. Sensing the challenges at

MSIL, we build in 9.6% volume growth in FY21E vs. ~15% decline

expectation for whole of FY20E.

Little respite on margin front

MSIL’s margin trajectory has taken a sharp dive from 15%+ in FY16-18 to

12.8% in FY19 and then further to 10.5% in Q1FY20 and 9.5% in Q2FY20. A

steep fall in volumes and highly competitive pricing environment have

weighed heavily on margins. The recent global correction in commodity

prices, however, does provide some solace. Going forward, we build in

EBITDA margins of 10.7% in FY20E and 11.5% in FY21E.

Valuation & Outlook

Going forward, we expect sales and PAT to grow at a CAGR of 2.9% & 1.9%,

respectively, over FY19-21E. We believe BS-VI rollout would have a lower

cost impact on PV segment (especially petrol) and MSIL as the industry

bellwether would drive volume growth here. However, valuations remain

stretched compared to historical precedents for muted growth periods.

Thus, we retain our cautious stance with a REDUCE rating, valuing MSIL at

| 6,420 i.e. 25x P/E on FY21E EPS of | 258/share.

Key Financials FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E CAGR (FY19-21E)

Net Sales 68,034.8 79,762.7 86,020.3 80,801.9 90,051.4 2.3%

EBITDA 10,353.0 12,061.5 10,999.3 8,659.7 10,373.8 -2.9%

EBITDA Margins (%) 15.2 15.1 12.8 10.7 11.5

Net Profit 7,337.7 7,721.8 7,500.6 6,424.6 7,790.2 1.9%

EPS (|) 242.9 255.6 248.3 212.7 257.9

P/E 30.4 28.9 29.8 34.8 28.7

RoNW (%) 20.3 18.5 16.3 12.9 14.3

RoCE (%) 20.3 21.1 16.3 9.4 11.5

Key Financial Summary

Source: ICICI Direct Research, Company

Particulars

Particular Amount

Market Capitalization | 223418.4 Crore

Total Debt | 149.6 Crore

Cash & Investment | 35226.7 Crore

EV | 188341.3 Crore

52 week H/L (|) 7929 / 5447

Equity capital | 151 Crore

Face value | 5

Key Highlights

Volumes in Q2FY20 dropped 30%

YoY to ~3.4 lakh units. Revenue

decline at 24% YoY to | 16,985

crore lagged volume drop as ASPs

improved on better mix (higher UV

share) and BS-VI related price rise

Margins at 9.5% slipped 93 bps

QoQ amid negative operating

leverage

Going forward, pace of volume

decline is seen slowing as BS-VI

changeover approaches, with

margins improving gradually

towards ~12% by FY21E

Assign REDUCE rating with revised

target price of | 6,420

Research Analyst

Shashank Kanodia, CFA

[email protected]

Jaimin Desai

[email protected]

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2

ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Maruti Suzuki India

Exhibit 1: Variance analysis

Q2FY20 Q2FY20E Q2FY19 YoY (Chg %) Q1FY20 QoQ (Chg %) Comments

Total Operating Income 16,985 16,944 22,433 -24.3 19,720 -13.9 Topline as well as ASPs in line with our estimates

Raw Material Expenses 12,099 11,901 15,285 -20.8 14,091 -14.1

Employee Expenses 838 807 792 5.9 859 -2.4

Other expenses 2,441 2,550 2,925 -16.5 2,722 -10.3

Operating Profit (EBITDA) 1,606 1,687 3,431 -53.2 2,048 -21.6

EBITDA Margin (%) 9.5 10.0 15.3 -584 bps 10.4 -93 bps

Margins came in lower than estimates primarily on

account of negative operating leverage, as both -

employee costs and other expenses, were higher than

anticipated on percentage of sales basis

Other Income 920 650 527 74.7 836 10.0Other income higher than estimates, continuing a recent

trend in this regard

Depreciation 926 739 721 28.4 919 0.8

Depreciation expenses were higher-than-expected given

enhanced depreciation rates adopted on accelerated run

down of diesel powertrain plant & machinery

Interest 28 5 26 9.7 55 -48.4Interest expenses were higher on account of AS-116

accounting

Total Tax 213.4 400.1 970.6 -78.0 475.4 -55.1Tax rate for the quarter was at a mere 13.6% as MSIL

adopted new corporate tax rate benefit

PAT 1,359 1,166 2,240 -39.4 1,436 -5.4Beat on profitability front on account of higher other

income and lower tax outgo than expected

EPS 45.0 38.6 74.2 -39.4 47.5 -5.4

Key Metrics

ASP (|) 476,488 476,991 444,508 7.2 465,362 2.4

ASPs were higher on a QoQ basis due to betterment in

mix (higher UV share), cost control measures and pricing

action necessitated by introduction of BS-VI models and

safety features

Discounts (|) 25,761 20,000 18,750 37.4 16,941 52.1

Discounts came in far higher than anticipated, symbolising

extent of competitive intensity in the marketplace

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 2: Change in estimates

FY21E

(| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments

Total Operating

Income

88,428 80,802 -8.6 95,073 90,051 -5.3

Revise our revenue estimates downward on the back of

further volume weakness experienced in Q2FY20. We build in

~15% volume decline for FY20E and, thereafter, foresee a

~9.6% rise for FY21E

EBITDA 9,835 8,660 -12.0 11,202 10,374 -7.4

EBITDA Margin

(%)11.1 10.7 -40 bps 11.8 11.5 -26 bps

We slightly trim our margin estimates given elevated

discounting levels. However, softer commodity prices are

seen benefiting the company, going ahead

PAT 6,854 6,425 -6.3 7,829 7,790 -0.5Lowering of sales and margin estimates leads to lowering of

PAT estimates

EPS (|) 227 213 -6.3 259 258 -0.5

FY20E


Exhibit 3: Assumptions

Comments

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E

Total Volumes (nos) 1,568,604 1,779,575 1,862,449 1,618,459 1,773,032 1,821,257 1,909,347 We factor in 2.4% volume decline CAGR over

FY19-21E

Average ASPs (|) 426,353 438,896 445,792 474,850 484,864 465,615 478,786

Betterment of product mix and further regulatory

led price increases are seen helping ASPs

RMC/Unit (|) 297,336 308,922 323,521 354,931 363,424 348,418 357,442

Discount (|) 16,774 15,895 18,334 22,116 15,000 16,610 16,250

We pare discount level estimates in FY21E as

the landscape is seen stabilising post BS-VI

implementation

Current Earlier




Conference Call Highlights

Management guidance/outlook and demand

Retail volumes for MSIL declined ~22% YoY in Q2FY20. Retail demand

continues to pick up sequentially, with ~100,000 units per month in July

and August increasing to ~116,000 units in September and improving

further in October as well

Festive season demand is progressing well, with the Navratra period

recording flattish retail demand initially and then graduating to

moderately positive demand in later weeks. Positive momentum has

continued thereafter

MSIL reiterated its broad desire to not be present in the diesel segment

after implementation of BS-VI norms

Rural demand (down 18%) has declined slower than urban demand,

with rural sales forming ~39% of overall sales

Petrol segment accounts for ~67% of volumes at the industry level and

~77% for MSIL (up from ~72% YoY)

The company has nearly exhausted all BS-IV inventories of the eight

models where BS-VI variants have been introduced and production of

the older variants has also been curtailed

S-Presso has garnered 16,500 bookings thus far. The company has

delivered ~ 6,000 units till date

Sales, costs and margins

The company expects to realise greater commodity price related

benefits in H2FY20E

ASP improved during Q2FY20 on account of the company passing on

cost incidence related to safety features and BS-VI introduction

Discounting levels for the quarter were at | 25,761/unit vs. | 18,758/unit

in Q2FY19

Export sales for the quarter were at | 1,229 crore

Royalty expenses were at 5.2% of sales

Other

Channel inventory was at ~30 days of average monthly Q2FY20 retail

sales. Of this, BS-IV: BS-VI split was at 50:50 (including diesel)

MSIL guided for ~| 4,000 crore capex in FY20E

Financing levels were largely unchanged at ~80%

Gujarat plant volumes for Q2FY20 were at 82,251 units

Depreciation cost increased substantially during H1FY20 on account of

accelerated depreciation being provided on certain diesel heavy plant &

machinery

The company’s effective corporate tax rate, going forward, would be

~23%



Financial story in charts

Exhibit 4: Topline and bottomline trends

43701

49874

57746

68035

79763

86020

80802

90051

2783

3711

4571

73387722

7501

6425

7790

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(| crore)

(| crore)

Topline Bottomline


Exhibit 5: EBITDA and margin profile

6,605.9

8,978.6

10,353.0

12,061.5

10,999.3

8,659.7

10,373.8

13.2

15.5 15.2 15.1

12.8

10.7

11.5

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(%

)

(| crore)

EBITDA Margins (%)


Exhibit 6: Domestic vs. export volume trend

1051

1054

1171

1305

1445

1654

1754

1512

1664

120

101

122

124 124

126

109

107 109

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

('0

00s)

Domestic Exports


We expect sales to grow at a CAGR of 2.9% over

FY19-21E and build in -2.4% volume CAGR

Going forward, we expect the company to clock

EBITDA of | 10,374 crore in FY21E. We build in

EBITDA margin trajectory of 10.7% and 11.5% in

FY20E & FY21E, respectively

We expect domestic volumes to grow at a CAGR of

-2.6% over FY19-21E while export volumes are

expected to remain flattish in this time. Blended

volume CAGR is expected at -2.4% CAGR in FY19-

21E



Exhibit 7: Domestic market PV share

47.2 47.3 47.4

50.5 50.4 50.3 50.0

52.5 52.1 51.7 51.2 51.049.8

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

Q2FY17

Q3FY17

Q4FY17

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20

Q2FY20

(%

)

Domestic Market Share


Exhibit 8: Annual discount trends and expectations

16951

19,529 18,898

16,774 15,895

18,334

22,116

15,000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(|)


MSIL has largely maintained its market leadership

with market share at FY19 end at 51.2%, up 120 bps

on a YoY basis. Market share as of Q2FY20 end was

at 49.8%

Discounts for Q2FY20 came in quite high at

| 25,761/unit vs. our expectation of | 20,000/unit



Exhibit 9: Segment and model wise MSIL volumes

Segment, sub-segment

and model

Q2FY18 Q2FY19 YoY (%) Domestic market

share (%)

Passenger Cars 341,620 216,458 (36.6) 59.9

Mini 108,576 41,785 (61.5)

Alto 67,327 36,779 (45.4)

S-Presso - 5,006 NA

Wagon-R (old) 41,249 - NA

Compact 219,748 168,965 (23.1)

Wagon-R (new) - 38,221 NA

Swift 61,336 38,055 (38.0)

Celerio 26,087 13,710 (47.4)

Dzire 68,933 41,859 (39.3)

Baleno 54,304 32,969 (39.3)

Ignis 9,088 4,151 (54.3)

Mid Size 13,296 5,708 (57.1)

Ciaz 13,296 5,708 (57.1)

Utility Vehicles 64,115 55,222 (13.9) 25.6

XL6 - 6,196 NA

Ertiga 12,205 23,893 95.8

Gypsy 806 - (100.0)

S-Cross 9,227 2,360 (74.4)

Vitara Brezza 41,877 22,773 (45.6)

Vans 44,099 28,421 (35.6) 85.7

Omni 22,621 - (100.0)

Eeco 21,478 28,421 32.3

-

Passenger Vehicles 449,834 300,101 (33.3) 49.8

-

LCV 5,566 5,333 (4.2)

Total domestic 455,400 305,434 (32.9)

-

Total exports 29,448 25,798 (12.4)

-

Grand total 484,848 331,232 (31.7)

Source: SIAM, ICICI Direct Research; Domestic market share as of September 2019 on YTD basis

Within segments, MSIL’s UV portfolio de-grew to a

lower degree when compared to the bread and

butter passenger car segment. Shift in product mix

helped support ASPs for the quarter. Van portfolio

reported decline courtesy discontinuance of Omni



Exhibit 10: Valuation

Sales Growth EPS Growth PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE

(| cr) (%) (|) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%)

FY17 68,035 55.7 243 163.7 30.4 19.0 20.3 20.3

FY18 79,763 17.2 256 5.2 28.9 15.7 18.5 21.1

FY19 86,020 7.8 248 (2.9) 29.8 17.1 16.3 16.3

FY20E 80,802 (6.1) 213 (14.3) 34.8 21.7 12.9 9.4

FY21E 90,051 11.4 258 21.3 28.7 17.6 14.3 11.5


Exhibit 11: MSIL currently trades at ~28.7x FY21E EPS of | 258

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

(|)

Price 39x 34x 29x 25x 20x 16x 11x

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research



Exhibit 12: Recommendation history vs. consensus

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Oct-19Jul-19Apr-19Jan-19Oct-18Jul-18May-18Feb-18Nov-17Aug-17May-17Feb-17Nov-16

(%

)(|)

Price Idirect target Consensus Target Mean % Consensus with BUY

Source: Reuters, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 13: Top 10 shareholders

Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)

1 Suzuki Motor Corp 30-Jun-19 56.2 169.8 0.0

2 Life Insurance Corporation of India 30-Jun-19 6.8 20.5 0.4

3 The Vanguard Group, Inc. 30-Sep-19 1.4 4.3 0.0

4 Capital Research Global Investors 30-Jun-19 1.1 3.3 2.3

5 GIC Private Limited 30-Jun-19 1.1 3.3 3.3

6 SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd. 30-Sep-19 1.0 3.2 -0.1

7 BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. 30-Sep-19 1.0 3.0 0.0

8 UTI Asset Management Co. Ltd. 30-Sep-19 0.8 2.3 0.1

9 ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. 30-Sep-19 0.7 2.2 0.1

10 Nomura Asset Management Co., Ltd. 31-May-19 0.7 2.2 0.0


Exhibit 14: Recent activity

Investor name Value ($ M) Shares(M) Investor name Value ($ M) Shares(M)

GIC Private Limited 311.8 3.3 Axis Asset Management Company Limited -116.4 -1.2

Capital Research Global Investors 216.3 2.3 DSP Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd. -25.1 -0.3

JPMorgan Asset Management U.K. Limited 82.3 1.0 Capital World Investors -22.9 -0.2

Life Insurance Corporation of India 33.8 0.4 Tata Asset Management Limited -22.6 -0.2

T. Rowe Price International (UK) Ltd. 25.7 0.3 Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Limited -16.5 -0.2

Buys Sells


Exhibit 15: Shareholding pattern

(in %) Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19

Promoter 56.2 56.2 56.2 56.2 56.2

FII 23.0 22.7 22.3 25.3 23.4

DII 16.0 13.4 13.4 11.3 15.0

Others 4.9 7.7 8.1 7.2 5.3




Financial Summary

Exhibit 16: Profit and loss statement | crore

(Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Total operating Income 79,763 86,020 80,802 90,051

Growth (%) 7.8 -6.1 11.4

Raw Material Expenses 54,975 60,254 57,444 64,436

Employee Expenses 2,834 3,255 3,478 3,636

Marketing Expenses 0 0 0 0

Administrative Expenses 0 0 0 0

Other expenses 9,892 11,512 11,221 11,606

Total Operating Expenditure 67,701 75,021 72,142 79,678

EBITDA 12061.5 10999.3 8659.7 10373.8

Growth (%) -9 -21 20

Depreciation 2,758 3,019 3,717 3,782

Interest 346 76 139 113

Other Income 2,046 2,561 3,394 3,638

PBT 11,003 10,466 8,198 10,117

Others 0 1 2 3

Total Tax 3,282 2,965 1,773 2,327

PAT 7721.8 7500.6 6424.6 7790.2

Growth (%) -3 -14 21

EPS (|) 255.6 248.3 212.7 257.9


Exhibit 17: Cash flow statement | crore


Profit after Tax 7,722 7,501 6,425 7,790

Add: Depreciation 2,758 3,019 3,717 3,782

(Inc)/dec in Current Assets -50 -504 -875 -670

Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions 2,584 -1,331 -1,527 1,428

Others 346 76 139 113

CF from operating activities 13359.1 8760.5 7878.4 12442.5

(Inc)/dec in Investments -6,527 -975 -700 -4,800

(Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets -3,701 -4,542 -4,000 -4,000

Others -218 17 -310 -310

CF from investing activities -10447.0 -5499.2 -5010.0 -9110.0

Issue/(Buy back) of Equity 0 0 0 0

Inc/(dec) in loan funds -373 39 250 -100

Dividend paid & dividend tax -2,900 -2,900 -2,900 -3,081

Inc/(dec) in Sec. premium 0 0 0 0

Others 419 -301 -139 -113

CF from financing activities -2854.1 -3162.5 -2789.3 -3294.0

Net Cash flow 58 99 79 38

Opening Cash 13 71 170 249

Closing Cash 71.1 169.9 249.1 287.6


Exhibit 18: Balance Sheet | crore


Liabilities

Equity Capital 151 151 151 151

Reserve and Surplus 41,606 45,981 49,506 54,215

Total Shareholders funds 41757.3 46132.4 49657.0 54365.9

Total Debt 111 150 400 300

Deferred Tax Liability 559 564 564 564

Others Liabilties 1,612 2,076 2,116 2,156

Total Liabilities 44038.8 48922.0 52736.6 57385.5

Assets

Gross Block 21,424 26,492 31,592 35,592

Less: Acc Depreciation 8,065 11,084 14,801 18,583

Net Block 13359.0 15407.8 16790.9 17008.8

Capital WIP 2,126 1,600 500 500

Total Fixed Assets 15,485 17,008 17,291 17,509

Investments 35290.2 36515.0 37465.0 42515.0

Inventory 3,161 3,326 3,542 3,701

Debtors 1,462 2,310 2,657 2,961

Loans and Advances 3 16 15 17

Other Current Assets 2,007 1,485 1,799 2,005

Cash 71.1 169.9 249.1 287.6

Total Current Assets 6,704 7,307 8,262 8,971

Creditors 10,497 9,633 8,412 9,375

Provisions 560 624 545 608

Other current Liabilities 4,274 3,743 3,516 3,919

Total Current Liabilities 15,331 14,001 12,474 13,902

Net Current Assets -8627.2 -6693.6 -4212.1 -4931.0

Other Assets 1,891 2,093 2,193 2,293

Application of Funds 44038.8 48922.0 52736.6 57385.5


Exhibit 19: Key ratios


Per share data (|)

EPS 255.6 248.3 212.7 257.9

Cash EPS 346.9 348.2 335.7 383.1

BV 1,382.3 1,527.2 1,643.8 1,799.7

DPS 80.0 80.0 80.0 85.0

Cash Per Share 2.4 5.6 8.2 9.5

Operating Ratios

EBITDA Margin (%) 15.1 12.8 10.7 11.5

PBIT / Net sales (%) 11.7 9.3 6.1 7.3

PAT Margin (%) 9.7 8.7 8.0 8.7

Inventory days 14.5 14.1 16.0 15.0

Debtor days 6.7 9.8 12.0 12.0

Creditor days 48.0 40.9 38.0 38.0

Return Ratios (%)

RoE 18.5 16.3 12.9 14.3

RoCE 21.1 16.3 9.4 11.5

RoIC 91.7 58.1 28.2 37.3

Valuation Ratios (x)

P/E 28.9 29.8 34.8 28.7

EV / EBITDA 15.7 17.1 21.7 17.6

EV / Net Sales 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.0

Market Cap / Sales 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.5

Price to Book Value 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.1

Solvency Ratios

Debt/EBITDA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Debt / Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Current Ratio 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9

Quick Ratio 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5



ICICI Direct Research

Result Update | Maruti Suzuki India

Exhibit 20: ICICI Direct coverage universe (Auto & Auto Ancillary)

Sector / Company CMP M Cap

(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E

Apollo Tyre (APOTYR) 181 200 Hold 10360 11.9 14.8 16.6 15.2 12.2 10.9 7.9 7.9 7.4 8.0 7.7 8.2 8.3 7.9 8.4

Ashok Leyland (ASHLEY) 75 75 Hold 21987 6.8 5.8 6.2 11.1 12.9 12.1 5.8 6.3 5.8 26.9 22.7 22.2 24.3 18.8 18.1

Bajaj Auto (BAAUTO) 3160 3300 Hold 91454 161.6 175.0 189.0 19.6 18.1 16.7 14.9 13.9 11.9 21.0 19.5 25.9 19.9 20.6 19.8

Bharat Forge (BHAFOR) 453 515 Buy 21081 22.2 23.5 24.9 20.4 19.2 18.2 11.5 11.5 10.8 17.9 16.0 16.3 19.1 17.6 16.9

Eicher Motors (EICMOT) 21128 18175 Hold 57594 808.1 907.0 1029.4 26.1 23.3 20.5 13.4 12.6 10.9 32.5 27.3 25.2 24.8 22.5 21.1

Exide Industries (EXIIND) 176 230 Buy 14947 9.9 12.3 14.1 17.7 14.3 12.4 10.6 8.5 7.5 18.4 20.8 20.5 12.9 15.5 15.7

Hero Moto (HERHON) 2700 3110 Buy 53919 169.5 195.0 182.9 15.9 13.8 14.8 10.0 10.5 9.7 37.1 30.1 29.8 26.3 23.9 23.0

Mahindra & Mahindra (MAHMAH) 520 660 Buy 64646 38.6 44.0 34.2 13.5 11.8 15.2 10.0 9.4 9.4 17.3 14.7 13.2 14.1 11.6 10.3

Maruti Suzuki (MARUTI) 7396 6420 Reduce 223418 248.3 212.7 257.9 29.8 34.8 28.7 17.1 21.7 17.6 16.3 9.4 11.5 16.3 12.9 14.3

Tata Motors (TELCO) 133 125 Hold 50934 -84.6 9.3 21.4 -1.6 14.2 6.2 3.9 3.6 3.1 5.4 9.1 11.3 7.1 9.8 15.4

RoE (%)EPS (|) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%)



ICICI Direct Research

Result Update | Maruti Suzuki India

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its

stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold,

Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined

as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]



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