MARKETING PERFORMANCE - IRI · impact from MMM are leveraged as covariate controls in Attribution...
31
Transcript of MARKETING PERFORMANCE - IRI · impact from MMM are leveraged as covariate controls in Attribution...
MARKETING PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT: ATTRIBUTION
OR MARKETING MIX?
Thought Leadership by
2
Srishti Gupta President
IRI Media Center of Excellence
Joy Joseph Practice Leader, Marketing Productivity
IRI Strategic Analytics
TODAY’S PRESENTERS
3
TODAY’S AGENDA
Why is this debate gathering momentum?
The case for and against Attribution
Pros and Cons with MMM
[MMM + Attribution]= Marketing Productivity Excellence
Vision for the future
4
TODAY’S AGENDA
Why is this debate gathering momentum?
The case for and against Attribution
Pros and Cons with MMM
[MMM + Attribution]= Marketing Productivity Excellence
Vision for the future
5
INFORMATION EXPLOSION HAS CREATED A DIVERSE AND WELL INFORMED CONSUMER
Health Benefits Occasions
Lifestyle
Democracy of information access has led to a highly evolved and diversified consumer landscape - targeted marketing has
become indispensable for consumer relevancy
Digital revolution has also created complex shopper journeys - imperative to integrate online, offline and touch points to engage across various
stages of the Shopper journey 6
PROLIFERATION OF MEDIA TOUCH POINTS HAS LED TO A COMPLEX CONSUMER JOURNEY
Digital ad optimization supported a far more complex engagement model, individual level sales conversion rather than aggregate sales contributions were required - enter Attribution Modeling
A parallel measurement environment was initially OK because Digital stakeholders initially operated in a separate environment from traditional media, but not for long…
Speed
Granularity
7
THESE SEPARATE WORLDS COLLIDED AS ADVERTISERS RAMPED UP ON DIGITAL INVESTMENTS, FREQUENTLY AT THE COST OF TRADITIONAL MEDIA
Digital and traditional media stakeholders began finding themselves in the same conference room with increasing frequency - a comparison and even bake-off between the two approaches was inevitable.
DIGITAL AGENCIES
PUBLISHERS/ AD NETWORKS/ EXCHANGES
CRM/ DIGITAL MEDIA LEAD
INSIGHTS
BRAND MANAGEMENT
TRADITIONAL AGENCIES
MMM Sandbox
Attribution Sandbox
Buy-side Sell-side
8
TODAY’S AGENDA
Why is this debate gathering momentum?
The case for and against Attribution
Pros and Cons with MMM
[MMM + Attribution]= Marketing Productivity Excellence
Vision for the future
9
IN AN INCREASINGLY ADDRESSABLE WORLD, ATTRIBUTION EPITOMIZES MICRO-MARKETING
Un-Exposed
EXPOSED
Conversions (“Lift”)
Display + Search
Social + Search
Social + Search
Cro
ss-P
latfo
rm S
yner
gies
Lifestyles Purchase Behavior Demographics
Post-campaign Diagnostics
10
HYPER-GRANULARITY UNCOVERS ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN THE LONG-TAIL OF DIGITAL OPTIONS
Leaderboard
Rectangle S
kysc
rape
r Internalize pay-for-performance: Align growth opportunities with the
optimal execution mix
11
THIRD-PARTY MATCHING ALLOWS ATTRIBUTION PLATFORMS TO INTEGRATE ACROSS A WIDE RANGE OF DATA SOURCES
HH
12
NEAR-REAL-TIME MEASUREMENT TO SUPPORT PROGRAMMATIC INITIATIVES
Mid-campaign Attribution Read
Optimize/Course-correct
Post-campaign Diagnostics/ Lessons Learned/ Set-up for next campaign
4-8 Week Cycle-time
DMP/ Conversion Metrics
Programmatic/ DSP/Ad Exchanges
DMP/ Conversion Metrics
13
ATTRIBUTION COMES WITH ITS OWN ISSUES THOUGH…
• Attribution largely ignores offline touch points, resulting in potentially inflated ROAS estimates
• Big data doesn’t mean “all data”- Integrating micro-data across multiple sources with varying quality and inconsistent matching across multiple third party sources potentially drive biased campaign lift estimates
• Attribution can be too short-term focused, optimizing over weeks rather than quarters, so cannot address longer-term marketing planning decisions
14
TODAY’S AGENDA
Why is this debate gathering momentum?
The case for and against Attribution
Pros and Cons with MMM
[MMM + Attribution]= Marketing Productivity Excellence
Vision for the future
15
MMM ENABLES PORTFOLIO STRATEGY BY OPTIMIZING ALLOCATION BY BRAND AS WELL AS BY PLATFORM
15
20
30
35
18
36
18
28
Brand A
Brand B
Brand C
Brand D
Current Optimal
Spe
nd A
lloca
tion
Cro
ss-P
latfo
rm A
lloca
tion
16
BRAND CROSS-EFFECTS & HALO CAN BE LEVERAGED FOR EFFICIENT CROSS-BRAND CAMPAIGNS
A B C D
A
B
C
D
Halo Impact
Adv
ertis
ed B
rand
Cro
ss-B
rand
Hal
o
Sou
rces
of M
ktg.
Sal
es
17
MMM ALSO SUPPORTS STRATEGIC PLANNING PROCESSES…
Long
-term
Bra
nd E
quity
Dem
and
Pla
nnin
g
18
DETERMINE OPTIMAL SPEND LEVELS ACCOUNTING FOR SATURATION AND SIMULATE MULTIPLE STRATEGIES FOR SUPPORTING INNOVATION…
New
Pro
duct
Mar
ketin
g
Rig
ht S
pend
19
MOST IMPORTANTLY, MMM ALSO SUPPORTS OFFLINE MEDIA PLANNING…
20
MMM DISADVANTAGES
• Digital can present challenges for MMM, especially where granular data (down to markets and trade areas) is infeasible
• Hyper-targeted and addressable campaigns do not have the scale to register accurately in MMM
• Pure MMM takes a one size fits all approach, but marketing responsiveness varies across consumer groups
• Synergies, especially across digital campaigns are difficult to read without single source data (down to individual audience level), resulting in underestimation of cross-platform campaigns in MMM
• Finally, the broad and encompassing demand measurement MMM undertakes comes at a cost; long cycle times - model updates can often take 8 or more weeks from data gathering to insights/execution
21
LACK OF INTEGRATION CAN IMPACT INSIGHTS AND STRATEGY IN MULTIPLE WAYS...
Case Study:
12-week Cross-Media Campaign for a OTC Health Brand - MMM indicated the media portion was around 70 percent of the lift suggested by the attribution model (11.6 percent vs. 16.5 percent).
A major in-store shopper initiative at a large regional retail chain was skewing Online Video up in the attribution study, while MMM was underestimating the highly targeted Display campaign.
MTA Online Video Display TV Sales Lift 5.7% 3.6% 7.2%
MMM Online Video Display TV Promo Sales Lift 2.1% 2.9% 6.6% 4.1%
22
WHAT DO YOU DO WHEN FACED WITH APPLES AND ORANGES?
23
TODAY’S AGENDA
Why is this debate gathering momentum?
The case for and against Attribution
Pros and Cons with MMM
[MMM + Attribution]= Marketing Productivity Excellence
Vision for the future
24
DEFINE THE HORIZON & CADENCE…
Both MMM and Attribution Modeling are great for the purpose they are intended for:
MMM guiding overall marketing strategy
Attribution Modeling guiding tactical campaign performance
25
DESIGNING THE INTEGRATED ANALYTIC MODEL
• Offline and non-marketing drivers’ impact from MMM are leveraged as covariate controls in Attribution Modeling to more accurately quantify Digital/addressable campaign lifts
• Lifts from Digital and other targeted campaigns measured in Attribution models are used in MMM-driven budget allocation and portfolio optimizations to more accurately represent these
26
SUCCESS DEPENDS UPON EXECUTION…AND ADOPTION
TODAY’S AGENDA
Why is this debate gathering momentum?
The case for and against Attribution
Pros and Cons with MMM
[MMM + Attribution]= Marketing Productivity Excellence
Vision for the future
28
SOME PREDICTIONS FOR THE VERY NEAR FUTURE…
Immediate future will see a more cogent integration of MMM and Attribution
A greater focus on targeting will push measurement down to at least household-level, if not individual consumer level
Now that we have stopped being awestruck by the sheer amount of data that is creating “insights”, it is time to address issues like data bias
Focus will shift to predictive accuracy vs. backward-looking campaign scorecard
Advanced probability based models will be explored to compensate for data biases and for understanding non-addressable offline media
