Market Wrap 101813 (MG).pdf

7/27/2019 Market Wrap 101813 (MG).pdf

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MARKET WRAP: WEEK ENDED 18 October13

Weekly Highlights: Markets Rose After The U.S. Congress Raised Its Debt Limit

Stockmarket Commentary

After moving in a trading range, the FBM KLCImoved higher to touch a 4-week intraday high of1,805 points on Friday amid firmer offshoremarkets. Buying was focused on selected blue

chips. The FBM KLCI closed the week at 1,799.6points to register a gain of 0.8%.

Average daily trading was sustained at 1.7 bil sharesover the preceding week while average dailyturnover increased to RM1.9 bil from RM1.6 bilover the same period.

Regional markets moved higher after the U.S.Congress approved the lifting of the debt ceiling aday before the 17th October deadline. Regional

sentiment was also lifted by Chinas robust 3Q2013 GDP growth of 7.8%. The Thailand market led witha weekly gain of 1.9% while the Hang Seng ChinaEnterprises Index was up 0.6% for the week.

Wall Street: The Dow firmed as Washingtonreached a deal on Wednesday to reopen thegovernment and avert a debt default. The deadlockcaused the U.S. government to shut down for morethan two weeks and threatened the Treasurys

ability to pay its bills. The 500 Standard & Poors

Index rose 2.4% to close at a record high of 1,744.5points for the week. The Dow was up 1.1% to closeat a 4-week high of 15,399.7 points for the week.The Nasdaq rose by a wider margin of 3.2% to3,914.3 points over the same period.

U.S. Economy: U.S. macroeconomic news was

generally positive. The inflation rate eased to 1.5%

in August 2013 from 2.0% in July on the back lower

energy costs.

The U.S. Congress has set a new deadline to raise

the debt limit by 7th February 2014. Congress will

also have to agree on the 2014 Budget by 15 th

January 2014 to avoid another shutdown of the U.S.

government.

Crude oil prices registered a weekly decline of1.2% to close at US$100.81/brl for the weekended 18th October.

Regional Economy: Chinas exports declinedby 0.3% in September from 7.2% in August duepartly to fewer working days as the mid-AutumnFestival fell on a working day this year. Importgrowth rose 7.4% from 7.0% over the same

period. As imports outpaced exports growth,Chinas trade surplus decreased to US$15.2 bilin September from US$28.5 bil in August 2013.

China's GDP growth rose to 7.8% in 3Q2013from 7.5% in 2Q2013 as the manufacturing and

construction sector registered higher growth of7.8% versus 7.6% over the same period.

Malaysia Economy: Malaysias foreignexchange reserves rose by RM4.4 bil in thesecond half of September to RM444.6 bil as at30 September.

On a weekly basis, the Ringgit appreciated by0.7% to RM3.150 against the US$ for the week.On a year-to-date basis, the Ringgit depreciated

by 3.0% against the greenback.

Market Outlook & Valuations: Lookingahead, local investors are expected to watch outfor indications of fiscal reform in Malaysias

upcoming 2014 Budget which will beannounced on 25th October 2013.

As at 18th October 2013, the local stock marketis trading at a prospective P/E of about 16.5xwhich is in line with its 10-year average P/E

ratio. The local markets dividend yield of3.42% is above the 12-month fixed deposit rateof 3.15%.

After moving in a trading range, the FBM KLCI trended higher to close at 1,799.6 points and register again of 0.8% for the week.

Regional markets also traded higher after the U.S. Congress approved the lifting of the debt ceilingbefore the 17th October deadline.

Looking ahead, local investors are expected to watch out for indications of fiscal reform in Malaysia supcoming 2014 Budget which will be announced on 25th October 2013.

For Internal Circulation Only


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Regional Markets Valuations

Prospective

P/E

(x)

Estimated

Dividend

Yield (%)

Australia 15.42 4.44

China H Shares 7.94 4.00

Hong Kong 11.19 3.46

Thailand 14.94 3.10

Taiwan 15.83 2.98

Singapore14.95 3.19

Shanghai Comp 9.61 3.21

Philippines 18.93 2.33

Indonesia 15.83 2.00

Japan 14.97 1.78

South Korea 10.21 1.14Source: Bloomberg, 18 Oct13

Market Performance and Valuations

Selected Markets Weekly Performances

18 Oct13 11 Oct13 % chng

FBM KLCI 1,799.6 1,785.8 +0.8

FBMS Shariah 12,619.2 12,505.6 +0.9

MSCI FEXJ 536.2 528.0 +1.6

MSCI World 396.4 386.6 +2.5

Dow Jones 15,399.7 15,237.1 +1.1

Nasdaq 3,914.3 3,791.9 +3.2

TOPIX 1,205.5 1,197.2 +0.7

SH Comp 2,193.8 2,228.1 -1.5China*,H share 10,644.0 10,580.8 +0.6

MSCI China 6,386.2 6,357.7 +0.5

Hong Kong 23,340.1 23,218.3 +0.5

Taiwan 8,441.2 8,349.4 +1.1

South Korea 2,052.4 2,024.9 +1.4

Singapore 3,192.9 3,179.7 +0.4

Thailand 1,484.7 1,457.8 +1.9

Indonesia 4,546.6 4,519.9 +0.6* Hang Seng China Enterprises Index# in USD

Bursa Securities Market Valuations^

18 Oct13 11 Oct13 10 yr av.*FBM KLCI 1,799.59 1,785.75 -

PER (x) 16.50 16.38 16.49

Price/NTA(x) 2.78 2.76 3.15

3mth InterBk 3.21 3.21 -

12mth FD, % 3.15 3.15 -

*2004-2013 average

^PMB In-House Statistics

Malaysias Economic Snapshot

2011 2012 2013F

GDP growth, % 5.1 5.6 4.5 - 5.0

Inflation, % 3.2 1.6 2.0 - 2.2F=forecast

Performance of Equity and Balanced Funds*

Local Funds18 Oct13 11 Oct13 % chng

PSF 0.5976 0.5934 +0.7

PGF 0.5097 0.5053 +0.9

PIX 0.7556 0.7503 +0.7

PIF 0.5662 0.5599 +1.1

PAGF 0.6664 0.6617 +0.7

PRSF 0.6919 0.6858 +0.9

PBF 0.6860 0.6802 +0.9

P SmallCap 0.8453 0.8389 +0.8

PEF 0.3042 0.3011 +1.0

PFSF 0.2984 0.2974 +0.3PDSF 0.3142 0.3123 +0.6

PSSF 0.3262 0.3224 +1.2

PSA30F 0.3449 0.3425 +0.7

POGF 0.3182 0.3172 +0.3

PBBF 0.8009 0.7914 +1.2

PBGF 0.7935 0.7830 +1.3

PBGSQF 0.3074 0.3054 +0.7

PSSCF 0.3015 0.3002 +0.4

PBMAC 0.2587 0.2577 +0.4

Local Islamic Funds18 Oct13 11 Oct13 % chng

P Ittikal 0.9168 0.9075 +1.0

PIEF 0.3732 0.3705 +0.7

PIOF 0.3774 0.3751 +0.6

PIMXAF 0.2974 0.2957 +0.6PIDF 0.3965 0.3943 +0.6

PISSF 0.3243 0.3225 +0.6

PISTF 0.3514 0.3501 +0.4

PIOGF 0.3158 0.3136 +0.7

PISEF 0.4163 0.4137 +0.6

PIA40GF 0.2971 0.2948 +0.8

PISVF 0.2941 0.2925 +0.5

PITGF 0.3274 0.3252 +0.7

PITSEQ 0.3091 0.3057 +1.1

PBIEF 0.2618 0.2595 +0.9

Foreign Funds18 Oct13 11 Oct13 % chng

PFES 0.2443 0.2416 +1.1

PRSEC 0.2255 0.2243 +0.5

PGSF 0.2336 0.2311 +1.1PFEDF 0.2167 0.2169 -0.1

PFEBF 0.2279 0.2271 +0.4

PTAF 0.2249 0.2221 +1.3

PCSF 0.1727 0.1727 -

PFEPRF 0.3118 0.3091 +0.9

PSEASF 0.2918 0.2902 +0.6

PFECTF 0.2841 0.2836 +0.2

PCTF 0.2267 0.2267 -

PFETIF 0.3253 0.3213 +1.2

PNREF 0.2198 0.2177 +1.0

PAUEF 0.2891 0.2810 +2.9

PFA30F 0.2476 0.2468 +0.3

PINDOSF 0.2428 0.2434 -0.2

PBAEF 0.2399 0.2387 +0.5

PBADF 0.2976 0.2957 +0.6

PBEPEF 0.1990 0.1966 +1.2PBCPEF 0.1691 0.1685 +0.4

PBCAEF 0.2560 0.2539 +0.8

PBCAUEF 0.2032 0.1997 +1.8

PBSGA30EF 0.2791 0.2775 +0.6

PBAPENTF 0.2466 0.2430 +1.5

PBAREIF 0.3030 0.3007 +0.8

PBADBF 0.3039 0.2982 +1.9

PBINDOBF 0.2318 0.2319 -0.04

PSGEF 0.2743 0.2728 +0.5

PBAEGF 0.2800 0.2781 +0.7

PBDYNAF 1.1118 1.1100 +0.2

Foreign Islamic Funds18 Oct13 11 Oct13 % chng

PAIF 0.2792 0.2775 +0.6PIADF 0.2711 0.2693 +0.7

PIATAF 0.2541 0.2503 +1.5

PCIF 0.1934 0.1916 +0.9

PIALEF 0.2535 0.2517 +0.7

PBIAEF 0.2324 0.2302 +1.0

PBIASSF 0.2006 0.1999 +0.4

*Buying Price


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Bond Market Commentary

For the fortnight ended 18th October 2013,the U.S. Treasury market strengthened asdemand for safe haven assets continued onconcerns that U.S. economic growth may beaffected by the government shutdown. The3-year Treasury yield inched up marginally

from 0.62% to 0.63% while the 5 and 10-year Treasury yields eased by 8 bps and 6

bps to 1.33% and 2.58% respectively overthe fortnight.

The Malaysian Government Securities(MGS) market closed mixed with the 3 and5-year MGS easing by 16 bps and 5 bps to3.11% and 3.37% respectively while the 10-year MGS rose by 4 bps to 3.72% over thesame period.

The local corporate bond market remainedwell supported with the 3, 5 and 10-yearAAA corporate bond yields decreasing by

between 4 bps and 7 bps to 3.80%, 4.02%and 4.48% respectively.

In the money market, the spread of the 3-month Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offer Rate(KLIBOR) over the 3-month U.S. Treasury

bill widened marginally to 319 bps from318 bps over the fortnight as the 3-monthU.S. Treasury bill eased by 1 bp to 0.02%while the 3-month KLIBOR remainedunchanged over the same period.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Treasury bondmarket is expected to remain volatile overthe medium term as investors focus on thenewsflow pertaining to the Feds tapering of

its bond buying programme.

BOND MARKET REVIEW:FORTNIGHT ENDED

18 October 13

Public Mutual's Bond Funds Performance


P BOND 0.9675 0.9651 +0.2

PI BOND 1.0722 1.0688 +0.3

PIN BOND 1.0040 1.0022 +0.2

PEBF 1.0625 1.0545 +0.8

PSBF 1.0157 1.0132 +0.2

PIEBF 1.1180 1.1154 +0.2

PISBF 1.0187 1.0162 +0.2

PIINCOME 1.0361 1.0336 +0.2

PBFI 1.0413 1.0393 +0.2

PBIBF 1.1794 1.1758 +0.3

PBBMTN1 1.0265 1.0248 +0.2

PBINFBF 1.0569 1.0535 +0.3

PIINFBF 1.0647 1.0612 +0.3

PSTBF 1.0621 1.0591 +0.3

PISTBF 1.0606 1.0573 +0.3

PSKF 1.0248 1.0215 +0.3

PBBOND 1.0227 1.0198 +0.3

PBSKF 1.0232 1.0200 +0.3

PENTBF 1.0038 1.0004 +0.3

Public Mutual's Money Market Funds Performance


PMMF 1.0117 1.0106 +0.1

PIMMF 1.0280 1.0268 +0.1

PBCMF 1.0191 1.0179 +0.1

PBCPF 1.0027 1.0016 +0.1

PBICMF 1.0172 1.0161 +0.1

PBICPF 1.0027 1.0016 +0.1

Change in Interest Rates & Bond Yields

18 Oct13 4 Oct13 Chng*

3 Month Interest Rates

KLIBOR 3.21 3.21 -

U.S. T Bill 0.02 0.03 -1.0

3 Year

'AAA'Corp. 3.80 3.86 -6.0

MGS 3.11 3.27 -16.0

U.S. T Note 0.63 0.62 -1.0

5 Year

AAA'Corp. 4.02 4.09 -7.0

MGS 3.37 3.42 -5.0

U.S. T Note 1.33 1.41 -8.0

10 Year

'AAA'Corp. 4.48 4.52 -4.0

MGS 3.72 3.68 +4.0U.S. T Bond 2.58 2.64 -6.0

*in basis points

MGS Yield

2

4

6

Jan-

03

Oct-

03

Jul-

04

Apr-

05

Jan-

06

Oct-

06

Jul-

07

Apr-

08

Jan-

09

Oct-

09

Jul-

10

Apr-

11

Jan-

12

Oct-

12

Jul-

13

3 Years M GS

10 Years MGS


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4

You are advised to read and understand the contents of the Master Prospectus of Public Series of Funds dated

30th April 2013 and expires on 29th April 2014, Master Prospectus of Public Series of Shariah-Based Funds

dated 30th April 2013 and expires on 29th April 2014, Master Prospectus of PB Series of Funds dated 30th

April 2013 and expires on 29th April 2014, Information Memorandum of PB Cash Plus Fund and PB Islamic

Cash Plus Fund dated 29th March 2013 and Information Memorandum of PBB MTN Fund 1 dated 10th

November 2009 and expires on 24th December 2009. These prospectuses have been registered with the

Securities Commission who takes no responsibility for their contents, and neither should their registration be

interpreted to mean that the Commission recommends the investment.

You should note that there are fees and charges involved; and that the prices of units and distribution payable,

if any, may go down as well as up. Applications to purchase must come in the form of a duly completedapplication form referred to in and accompanying the prospectus. A copy of the prospectus can be obtainedfrom your attending agent, corporate representative or nearest Public Mutual Office.

Past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance.

Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A)Block B, Sri Damansara Business Park, Persiaran Industri, Bandar Sri Damansara, 52200 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. P.O. Box 10045, 50700 Kuala LumpurTel: 03-62796800 Fax: 603-62779800 Website:ttp://www.publicmutual.com.my

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