Market Trends in the Automotive Industry...Changing Passenger Vehicle Landscape Advanced hardware...
Transcript of Market Trends in the Automotive Industry...Changing Passenger Vehicle Landscape Advanced hardware...
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Market Trends in the Automotive
Industry
Kailash Sawant, Lubrizol
11TH April 2019
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Agenda
• Market Drivers
• Evolution of vehicle technologies & hardware.
• Specification changes
• Effect on lubrication & formulating challenges
• Summary
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The world continues to change
Creating the need to develop new services, new technology, new lubricants and fuels
3
Efficiency Reliability Wellness
• Minimizing environmental
impact
• Creating more efficient
products, processes
and services
• Maximizing the useful
life of equipment
• Minimizing repair
and replacement
• Ensuring equipment
operates as intended
• Improving the environment
in which people live
• Minimizing wastage
and resource usage
• Enabling access to
products and services
which improve lives
New legislation, regulations and evolving consumer preferences drive change
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Regulations in the Middle East
A slow fragmented approach to emissions legislation has the potential to accelerate
Global OEM platforms, newer vehicles and fuel quality
changes will allow adoption of new specifications and
tighter emissions controls in line with global trends
• Turkey adopted Euro 5/V limits
in 2012 and requires ULSD
• Saudi Arabia announced API CH-4
as the minimum specification for
diesel commercial vehicles
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Improving Efficiency
Regulatory impacts are not incremental
This will lead to greater use of lighter viscosity, lower SAPS lubricants, higher quality BO.
Notes 1. RDE is an acronym for Read world Driving Efficiency, a test cycle for emissions performance which is conducted on the road
2. WLTP is an acronym for Worldwide harmonized Light vehicle Test Procedure which replaces the New European Drive Cycle (NEDC) in the EU
3. Current limit based on the NEDC test cycle and this may be changed once the WLTP test cycle is adopted
Sources : ICCT, Dieselnet, China Ministry of Environmental protection
New legislation will lead to a greater emphasis on efficiency improvement
Tailpipe emission reduction
– Proconve L-6 standard in Brazil
– EURO 5a in Argentina
– Phase in of Tier 3 in the USA
– BS VI in India by 2020
– RDE1 and WLTP2 in the EU
CO2 emission reduction
– 95g/km3 in the European Union by 2021
– Phase III fuel economy legislation in China
– 54.5 mpg in the USA by 2025
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Engine Technology Drivers
Complex combination of new vehicle hardware technologies
Government
CO2
Mandates
Consumer
demand for
cost savings
NOx and PM
Legislation
DownsizingTurbocharging
Driving Factors
Effect on Engine Hardware
DPF
Fuel
InjectionEGRSCR
Diesel Particulate
Filters
Selective Catalytic
Reduction
Raised Top RingsExhaust Gas
Recirculation
Turbo-
ChargingInjection Strategy
Higher temperatures and
pressuresHigher soot and acid
levels
Susceptible to poisoning
and blockage
Efficiency Efficiency/Emissions Emissions
API CH-4 API CI-4 API CI-4 Plus API CJ-4/CK-4
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Impact on Heavy Duty Diesel Lubricants
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
15W-40 10W-XX 5W-30 Low HTHS
2016 57% 31% 12% 0%
2025 31% 33% 25% 12%
% M
etr
ic T
onnes (
Estim
ate
d)
2016
2025
EU-28 less Bulgaria, Cyprus, Russia, Ukraine & Malta plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey
Source: Lubrizol analysis. Based in part on content supplied by IHS Markit – Worldview, 2018
We expect that ~80% of HD vehicles in the region are European in origin
This data represents the European market, shift away from 15W-40 grades. Other markets will follow.
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Impact on lube quality
• Specifications are coming thicker and faster:
• Numerous major industry lubricant upgrades
are forthcoming
– ACEA 2016 2018
– API CK-4/FA-4
– GF-6
It is becoming increasingly complex for a lubricant to tackle these challenges
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API CH-4 to CK-4
BoreProtection
Corrosion
AftertreatmentCompatibility
OxidativeThickening
PistonDeposits
Soot
Wear
Fuel Economy
API CH-4
API CI-4 Plus
API CJ-4
API CK-4
OEM’s Response to tightening GHG standards:
CK-4
FA-4Challenge for
HD Lubricants
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ACEA & OEM Specifications
E4E7
Daimler 228.5Daimler 228.3 Daimler 228.51Daimler 228.31
Volvo VDS-3 Volvo VDS-4 → VDS-4.5
MAN M 3477, 3677MAN M 3277MAN M 3275 MAN M 3575
Daimler 228.61
Volvo VDS-5
MAN M 3877
“F”E6E9
API CI-4, CI-4 Plus API CJ-4 → API CK-4 API FA-4
Euro V/VI + DPF (+ SCR/EGR) Euro IV/V + SCR/EGR
HTHS@150°C ≥ 3.5 mPa.s HTHS@150°C ≥ 2.9 & ≤ 3.2 mPa.sFuture ACEA F engine lubricants will provide higher levels of durability,
protection and fuel economy
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Changing Passenger Vehicle Landscape
Advanced hardware requires advanced lubricants. Analogous story for HDMO.
2003 2018
Engine 1,781 cc, NA PFI
Power 74 kW
Torque 155 Nm
Transmission 5 MT
Curb Weight 1,210 kg
0 - 100 km/hrs 13.4 s
Fuel Economy 7.1 L/100km (90 km/h constant)
Engine Oil SJ 5W-40
Engine 1,798 cc, TGDI
Power 132 kW
Torque 300 Nm
Transmission 8 Speed AT
Curb Weight 1,580 kg
0 - 100 km/hr 8.5 s
Fuel Economy 5.2 L/100 km (90km/h constant)
Engine Oil VW 502 00 5W-40
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Growing passenger vehicle PARC
New hardware will demand higher performance lubricants
Between now and 2023 over 26 million new light vehicles will enter
the Middle East car parc
A high percentage of new
light duty vehicles will utilize
• Direct Injection
Gasoline engines
• Turbochargers
• Gasoline Particulate
Filters
Source : IHS AutoInsight
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TGDi Engine Technology
TGDi engines require advanced chemistry and base oil technology
• Environmental concerns are driving the use
of turbocharged gasoline direct injection
engines (TGDi) engines around the world
• These more efficient engines create a much
tougher operating environment for the
lubricant
• Lower tier traditional API categories
can cause major issues in TGDi engines
– Example: Catastrophic failures due to low
speed pre-ignition (LSPI)
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Fastest Growing Engine Type Needs New Lubricants
Field data proves previous oil specifications
were inadequate for GDI engine technology
An unacceptable situation for OEMs and vehicle owners
OEMs can no longer wait, enacting:
• GM dexos1TM Gen 2
• API SN Plus
• European OEMs
• Future ACEA
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SN Plus vs GF-6
• GF-6 is a new ILSAC category that will supersede GF-5
with replacement tests for the Sequence IIIG, IIIGA,
IIIGB, IVA, VG, and VID as well as two new tests coming
on line, Sequence IX (LSPI) and Chain wear.
• SN PLUS is a new API category supplement that will still
make use of the sequence IIIG, IVA, VG, VID, and VIII (or
approved replacement tests), plus the Sequence IX
(LSPI)
‒ SN PLUS may be applied to any API SN license
‒ SN and SN-Resource Conserving will still be licensable
without PLUS.
‒ No impact on GF-5 licenses
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Leading Brands Globally are Adopting API SN Plus Quickly
Source: Public websites
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Multi-Dimensional Formulating Challenges
Today’s lubricant challenges require modern additives and base oils
Formulating modern lubricants is extremely complex
Factors include:
• The quick rate of new specification introduction
• Specifications now governed by dynamic viscosity
profiles (HTHS) and performance
• Rise of ultra low viscosity fluids
• Environmental and regulatory restrictions on raw materials
• Expanding number of OEMs
• Qualifications becoming increasingly ‘formulation specific’
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Summary
It’s an exciting and dynamic time to be part of the lubricant industry!
• Regulatory drivers continue to shape vehicle hardware and lubricant performance
• Global OEM platforms will drive more consistency globally
• The Middle East lubricant market would catch up rapidly
‒ Impacts base oil and additive needs
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