MARKET SITUATION & OPPORTUNITIES IN INDIA
Transcript of MARKET SITUATION & OPPORTUNITIES IN INDIA
MARKET SITUATION &
OPPORTUNITIES IN INDIA
Bhavna Shah, Regional Manager India & Sri Lanka
WHAT DOES INDIA STAND FOR TODAY? A COUNTRY WITHIN A
COUNTRY § Worlds largest democracy.
§ 325 languages spoken – 1,652 dialects
§ 28 states, 7 union territories
§ Area 3.28 million sq. kms
§ Land use: Arable land: 55% Permanent crops: 3% Other: 42% (2001)
Coastline: 7,516 kilometers
§ Population: 1.1 Billion with 50% under the age of 25!
• Agriculture 24% of GDP Manufacturing: 24%
• Services: 51%
§ GDP growth rate 6.9 %
§ Diverse Climate: Tropical south to temperate north
§ IMF has ranked India at the 11th largest economy
Key Economic Indicators
India has been ranked as the 10th largest economy by the World Bank • Strong macro-economic fundamentals
Ranked 3rd in terms of Purchasing Power Parity • Fast growing significant economy despite
global slowdown
Oilseeds Production
Source: Directorate of Economic &Statistics, GOI
2012-13(P) 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02
Castor Linseed Niger Safflower Sunflower Soybean Sesamum & Mustard Rapeseed Groundnut
Vegetable Oil Imports
Source: SEA
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13(P)
RBD PALM OLEIN
REFINED SFO
REFINED SBO
CPO
C. PALM OLEIN
CRUDE SFO
CRUDE SBO
CANOLA/RAPE
COCONUT OIL
CPKO
PKFAD
PFAD
CRUDE STEARINE
COTTON OIL
OTHERS
PALM OIL vs OTHER OILS IMPORTS
Source: SEA
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13(P)
POP
OTHER OILS
INDIAN PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (kgs)
Source: Oil World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Population (Millions)
Per Capita (kgs)
DEMAND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
YEAR POPULACE OIL CONSUMPTION(kg/capita)
Millions 14.6 15 15.5 16 16.5 25.5
2011 1,241 18.12 18.62 19.24 19.86 20.48 31.65
2012 1,258 18.37 18.88 19.50 20.13 20.76 32.09
2103 1,276 18.63 19.14 19.78 20.42 21.05 32.54
2014 1,294 18.89 19.41 20.05 20.70 21.35 32.99
2015 1,312 19.15 19.68 20.34 20.99 21.65 33.46
2016 1,330 19.42 19.96 20.62 21.29 21.95 33.92
Source: MPOC Intelligence
INDUSTRY GROWTH
PROCESSED FOODS FAST FOODS
FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS
SECTOR
DEMAND DRIVERS
OLEO CHEMICALS SOAPS / PERSONAL CARE
BIO- DIESEL
Consumption of Basic Oleochemicals 2013
Fatty Acid 88%
Fatty Alcohol
5%
Glycerine 7%
Volume of basic oleochemical consumption = 970,000 Mn MT in FY 13
Soaps Accounted for the Highest Consumption
Soaps 72%
Personal Care 8%
Detergents 5%
Plastics 4%
Rubber 4%
Tobacco 3%
Processed Foods
2% Pharma 1%
Others 1%
Consumption Breakdown
Growth for Oleochemicals Sector by 2020
Based on demand from key user segments, total oleochemical consumption in India is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 6% over FY13-20 to reach 1,480,000 MT in FY20. ■Oleochemical demand excluding soaps is expected to grow from 268,000 MT to 524,000 MT, growing at a CAGR of 10% over FY13-20. ■Among the various end-user industries, oleochemical demand from Detergents and Pharma is expected to grow the fastest at a CAGR of 13% and 15%, respectively over FY13-20. Oleochemical demand from Soaps and Rubber are expected to be grow the slowest at 4-5% CAGR over FY13-20.
Strengths
• Well established & cleaner technology for production • Favourable duty structure • Reliable supply • PO & PKO together contain the entire range of fatty acids required by oleochemical sector
Weaknesses
• High degree of correlation between the crude petroleum & palm oil • Increasing oleochem industry in India is facing the challenge of managing the volatility in price of PO & its derivatives • Environmental & sustainability concerns
Opportunities
• Shift in preference of liquid soap & detergents will increase demand for surfactants based on lauric acid, for which PKO is the best source in India
Threats
• RBO is good substitute for oleochem industry. However, increasingly it is used for cooking and technology for oleochem is not yet efficient. • Surfactant manufacturers are looking for alternative feedstocks that are both renewable and less correlated with crude petroleum.
In the medium term, the strengths of palm based feedstock overweigh the threats
Regulatory Changes
Removal of Melting Point
Limit
• This will increase POP input into Vanaspati manufacture, thus increasing PO offtake.
Stearin accepted for edible uses
• Will increase imports of CPO and reduce Olein imports as locally produced Stearin will have ready outlet into Vanaspati.
PFA changing to FSSAI
• Will facilitate trade activities, implementation and enforcement as all related regulations are being brought under one umbrella.
FSSAI to Replace Following Acts
Salient Features of FSSAI
Food Processing Sector- Sunrise Sector
Largely untapped market
Average Indian spends 50% of household
expenditure on food items
Demand for processed food rising due to
urbanization
Advantages In the Food Processing Sector
India is one of the largest food producers in the world
• It has diverse agro-climatic conditions and has a large and diverse raw material base suitable for food processing companies
India is looking for investment in infrastructure, packaging and marketing
• India has huge scientific and research talent pool
Rapid urbanisation, increased literacy, changing life style, increased number of women in workforce, rising per capita income- leading to rapid growth and new opportunities in food and beverages sector
Key Growth Drivers
Changing Lifestyle
Increasing Nuclear Families
Increasing Women
Workforce
Increasing fad for
heath and functional
foods
Increasing disposable
incomes
Key Opportunities in Food Processing Sector
1 • Processable variety of crops
2 • Contract Farming
3 • Integrated Cold Chain
• Change in Food Safety Management
Nutraceuticals & Cosmeceuticals
Tocotrienols Tocopherols Blends
Conclusion
Direct Indirect
India is a land of opportunities for Palm Oil Products.
THANK YOU PALM OIL – The Oil For The Future
THANK YOU