SHELF-LIFE STABILITY OF OAT GROATS PROCESSED WITH SUPERHEATED STEAM
Market situation Cereals mer… · EU MS exporting wheat 2011/12 & 5 average MY Average EU Common...
Transcript of Market situation Cereals mer… · EU MS exporting wheat 2011/12 & 5 average MY Average EU Common...
Market situationCereals
AGRI C 5Advisory Group on Cereals, Oilseeds and Proteins
30 March 2012
2
World cereal balance : IGC
303
373404
373
121159 172
137 131 (130)
378 (369)
1802 1799
1699
1841 (1830)
1753
1678
1768
1731
1836 (1831)
1784
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst
mio
t
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
mio
t
World Ending Stocksof which 8 major exportersWorld ProductionWorld Consumption
Source: IGC Feb. report
3
World cereal prices since 30 August 2011 ($/t)
225
245
265
285
305
325
30/08
/2011
6/09/2
011
13/09
/2011
20/09
/2011
27/09
/2011
4/10/2
011
11/10
/2011
18/10
/2011
25/10
/2011
1/11/2
011
8/11/2
011
15/11
/2011
22/11
/2011
29/11
/2011
6/12/2
011
13/12
/2011
20/12
/2011
27/12
/2011
3/01/2
012
10/01
/2012
17/01
/2012
24/01
/2012
31/01
/2012
7/02/2
012
14/02
/2012
21/02
/2012
28/02
/2012
6/03/2
012
13/03
/2012
20/03
/2012
27/03
/2012
quot
atio
n in
$ /
tonn
e
Wheat - Black Sea Milling - $ 275 Wheat - US SRW Gulf - $ 259 Wheat - FR Rouen - $ 281Maize - US 3YC Gulf - $ 274 Maize - FR Bordeaux - $ 282 Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen feed - $ 281
4
World wheat balance sheet: IGC
132
172199 196
4769 77 71 76 (74)
211 (204)
607
685678
653
695 (690)
602
645651 656
681 (681)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst
mio
t
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
mio
t
World Ending Stocksof which 8 major exportersWorld ProductionWorld Consumption
Source: IGC Feb. report
5
IGC: Wheat production forecastAll wheat
138
56 54
29 25 22 2314
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
EU Russia USA Australia Canada Ukraine Kazakhstan Argentina
Mt
2009 2010 (est.) 2011 (fcst.) Source: IGC Feb. report
6
Wheat export prices since 1/1/2007
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
01/20
0704
/2007
07/20
0710
/2007
01/20
0804
/2008
07/20
0810
/2008
01/20
0904
/2009
07/20
0910
/2009
01/20
1004
/2010
07/20
1010
/2010
01/20
1104
/2011
07/20
1110
/2011
01/20
12
quot
atio
n in
€ o
r $
/ ton
ne
Wheat - Canada CWRS St Lawrence - $ 366 Wheat - US HRW Gulf - $ 292Wheat - US SRW Gulf - $ 259 Wheat - Australia ASW Eastern States - $ 248Wheat - Argentina Trigo Up River - $ 258 Wheat - Black Sea Milling - $ 275Wheat - Black Sea Feed - $ 255
7
EU wheat export commitments 2011/12
0
4
8
12
16
20
Mill
ion
tonn
es
2010/2011 Average 5MY trimmed avg 5MY 2011/2012
AVERAGE 5MY
TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY
MY 2010/11
MY 2011/12
WHEAT CUMULATED EXP
8
EU wheat import commitments 2011/12
0
2
4
6
Mill
ion
tonn
es
Soft wheat 2011/12 Soft wheat 2010/11 soft wheat average 5MY soft wheat trimmed average
AVERAGE 5MY
TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY
MY 2011/12
MY 2010/11
WHEAT CUMULATED IMP
9
EU wheat exporting MS and destinationsMain EU-27 Common Wheat (incl. flour groats, ...) exporters and destination countries
6 months of marketing year 2011/12: 8.3 mio t
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
22.22.42.6
France 66% Germany 13% Romania 7% Lithuania 3% Utd. Kingdom 2% Spain 2%
mio
t
Algeria Morocco Saudi Arabia Angola Egypt Sudan Cuba OthersSource:Eurostat
10
EU wheat exporting MS and destinationsMain EU-27 Common Wheat (incl. flour groats, ...) exporters and destination countries
Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 8.3 mio t
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
France 51% Germany 20% Romania 7% Hungary 4% Bulgaria 4% Poland 3%
mio
t
Algeria Morocco Egypt Libya Iran South Africa Yemen OthersSource:Eurostat
11
EU MS exporting wheat2011/12 & 5 average MY
Average EU Common Wheat exports by Member State (incl. flour, groats …)
6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 8.8 mio t
France 50%
Germany 20%
Romania 7%
Hungary 4%
Bulgaria 4%
Poland 3%
Lithuania 3%
Latvia 2%
Belgium 2%
Others 5%
Source: Eurostat
EU Common Wheat exports by Member State (incl. flour, groats …) 6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 8.3 mio t
France 65%
Hungary 2%Latvia 1% Belgium 1%
Utd. Kingdom 2%
Spain 2%
Germany 13%
Lithuania 3%
Romania 7%
Others 3%
Bulgaria 1%
Source: Eurostat
12
EU wheat export destinations
EU Common Wheat (incl. flour, groats ... ) export destinations6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 8.8 mio t
Algeria 18%
Morocco 10%
Egypt 9%
Libya 4%
Iran 4%
South Africa 3%
Yemen 3%Angola 3%
India 2%
Pakistan 2%
Senegal 2%
Others 34%
Ivory Coast 2%
Tunisia 2%
Cameroon 2%
Source: Eurostat
EU Common Wheat (incl. flour, groats ... ) export destinations6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 8.3 mio t
Algeria 30%
Morocco 12%
Egypt 4%
South Africa 2%
Ivory Coast 2%
Others 23%
Syria 2%
Libya 2%Senegal 2%Cameroon 2%
Norway 2%
Cuba 3%
Sudan 3%
Saudi Arabia 7%
Angola 4%Source: Eurostat
13
EU MS importing wheatEU Soft Wheat Imports by MS
Average from 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 2.5 mio t
Spain 40%
Italy 25%
Portugal 3%
Belgium 5%
Greece 8%
Utd. Kingdom 12%
Romania 2%
Others 5%
Source: Eurostat
EU Soft Wheat Imports by MS6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3 mio t
Spain 43%
Italy 28%
Netherlands 5%
Portugal 6%
Greece 6%
Utd. Kingdom 7%
Belgium 2%
Poland 1%
Others 2%
Source: Eurostat
14
EU wheat imports originsEU Soft Wheat Import Origins
Average from 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 2.5 mio t
Ukraine 33%
USA 23%
Canada 19%
Russia 15%
Kazakhstan 4%
Croatia 3%
Serbia 2%
Others 1%
Source: Eurostat
EU Soft Wheat Import Origins6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3 mio t
Ukraine 40%
Russia 35%
Canada 10%
USA 9%
Serbia 3%
Kazakhstan 2%
Others 1%
Source: Eurostat
15
World durum wheat balance: IGC
1.7
3.6
4.9
3.1
0.9
1.9
2.7
1.61.3 (1.2)
2.3 (2.3)
35
39
41
35
3738 38
38
36 (36)
37 (37)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst
mio
t
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
mio
t
3 Major exporters StocksCanadaWorld ProductionWorld Consumption
Source: IGC Feb. report
16
World durum wheat prices since 01/2007
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
01/20
0704
/2007
07/20
0710
/2007
01/20
0804
/2008
07/20
0810
/2008
01/20
0904
/2009
07/20
0910
/2009
01/20
1004
/2010
07/20
1010
/2010
01/20
1104
/2011
07/20
1110
/2011
01/20
1204
/2012
quot
atio
n in
€ o
r $ /
tonn
e
Durum - US Minneapolis HADW - € 277 (20/3/2012) Durum - FR Port-La-Nouvelle - € 267Durum - IT Bologna - € 276 Durum - ES Average - € 267Wheat - FR Rouen - € 211
17
EU durum imports originsEU Durum Wheat Import Origins
Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 1 mio t
Canada 46%
USA 22%
Mexico 17%
Syria 4%
Kazakhstan 3%
Turkey 2%
Others 6% 0%
Source: Eurostat
EU Durum Wheat Import Origins6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 1 mio t
Canada 64%
USA 16%
Kazakhstan 1%Others 1%
Russia 1%
Argentina 3%
Mexico 5%
Australia 9%
Source: Eurostat
18
EU MS exporting durum wheatEU Durum Wheat Exports by MS
Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 0.5 mio t
France 46%
Italy 22%
Spain 16%
Greece 10%
Hungary 1%
Cyprus 1% Belgium 1%
Others 1%
Bulgaria 2%
Source: Eurostat
EU Durum Wheat Exports by MS6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 0.8 mio t
France 64.5%Italy 22.5%
Austria 0.4%
Hungary 0.5%
Greece 1.2%
Spain 10.0%
Cyprus 0.4%Slovenia 0.2%
Others 0.2%
Source: Eurostat
19
World barley balance sheet: IGC
26
34
40
29
713
18
11 10 (9)
27 (26)
133
155
150
124
146 145
135135 (134)
135136 (136)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst
mio
t
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
mio
t
World Ending StocksEU ending stocksWorld ProductionWorld Consumption
Source: IGC Feb. report
20
Barley prices since 01/2007
75
125
175
225
275
325
01/20
0704
/2007
07/20
0710
/2007
01/20
0804
/2008
07/20
0810
/2008
01/20
0904
/2009
07/20
0910
/2009
01/20
1004
/2010
07/20
1010
/2010
01/20
1104
/2011
07/20
1110
/2011
01/20
12
quot
atio
n in
€ o
r $ /
tonn
e
Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen feed - € 210 Barley - UK FOB London feed - € no quotation Barley - FI Dlvd Naantali feed - € 169 Barley - Black Sea feed FOB - € 199Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen malting - € 247
21
EU barley export commitments 2011/12
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mill
ion
tonn
es
2011/2012 2010/2011 Average 5MY trimmed avg 5MY
AVERAGE 5MY
TRIMMED AVERAGE
MY 2010/11
MY 2011/12
BARLEY CUMULATED EXP
22
EU barley exporting MSEU Barley and Malt Exports by Member State
Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 3.5 mio t
Germany 20%
Belgium 19%
Romania 7%
Estonia 1%
Bulgaria 3%
Lithuania 3%
Denmark 4%
France 23%
Czech Republic 1%Hungary 1%
Sweden 2%
Finland 2%
Spain 4%
Utd. Kingdom 4%
Netherlands 4%
Others 2%
Source: Eurostat
EU Barley and Malt Exports by Member State6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3.5 mio t
Romania 15%
Germany 15%
Belgium 14%
Netherlands 3%Lithuania 3%
Utd. Kingdom 5%
Hungary 2%Finland 2%
Estonia 1%Others 3%
France 25%
Denmark 7%
Sweden 2%
Bulgaria 3%
Source: Eurostat
23
EU barley export destinations
EU Barley and Malt Export DestinationsAverage for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 3.5 mio t
Saudi Arabia 33%
Tunisia 5%
Venezuela 5%
Brazil 5%Japan 4%
China 4%
Jordan 4%
Morocco 3%
Russia 3%
Algeria 2%
Syria 2%
Others 30%
Source: Eurostat
EU Barley and Malt Export Destinations6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3.5 mio t
Saudi Arabia 34%
Algeria 9%
Russia 5%
Jordan 4%
Morocco 4%Venezuela 3%Japan 3%
Vietnam 3%Brazil 3%
Tunisia 3%
China 2%Nigeria 2%
Others 25%
Source: Eurostat
24
World maize balance sheet: IGC
134150 148
133
41 43 4329 20 (21)
126 (125)
797 800
820
779784
821
864 (861)
828
871 (867)
844
0
100
200
300
400
500
2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst
mio
t
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
880
mio
t
World Ending Stocksof which USWorld ProductionWorld Consumption
Source: IGC Feb. report
25
IGC: maize production forecast
Maize
314
65 5823 23
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
USA EU Brazil Argentine Ukraine
Mio
t
2007 2008 2009 2010 (est.) 2011 (fcst.) Source: IGC Feb. report
26
Maize export prices since 1/1/2007
125
175
225
275
325
01/20
0704
/2007
07/20
0710
/2007
01/20
0804
/2008
07/20
0810
/2008
01/20
0904
/2009
07/20
0910
/2009
01/20
1004
/2010
07/20
1010
/2010
01/20
1104
/2011
07/20
1110
/2011
01/20
1204
/2012
quot
atio
n in
€ o
r $ /
tonn
e
Maize - US 3YC Gulf - $ 274 Maize - Argentina Feed Up River - $ 260Maize - Brazil Feed Paranagua - $ 258 Maize - Black Sea Feed - $ 270
27
EU Maize import commitments 2011/12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Mill
ion
tonn
es
Maize other than seed 2011/12 Maize other than seed 2010/11
Maize other than seed average 5MY Maize other than seed - Trimmed Average
AVERAGE 5MY
TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY
MY 2010/11
MY 2011/12
MAIZE CUMULATED IMP
28
EU MS importing maizeMaize Imports (incl. processed products) by Member StateAverage for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 3.4 mio t
Spain 45%
Portugal 14%
Netherlands 9%
Italy 6%
Romania 2%
Slovenia 1%
Greece 2%
Belgium 2%
France 3%
Germany 4%
Cyprus 1%Bulgaria 1% Ireland 1%
Poland 1%
Others 2%
Utd. Kingdom 6%
Source: Eurostat
Maize Imports (incl. processed products) by Member State6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 2.5 mio t
Spain 36%
Portugal 20%
Netherlands 17%
Ireland 1% Romania 1%Others 2%
Germany 1%
Belgium 1%
Slovenia 3%
Utd. Kingdom 4%
Greece 4%
Italy 8%
Cyprus 1%
Poland 1%
Source: Eurostat
29
EU maize imports originsMaize (incl. processed products) - Origin of EU Imports
Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 3.4 mio t
Brazil 55%
Argentina 20%
Serbia 9%
Ukraine 6%
Paraguay 4%
USA 2%
Croatia 2%
Others 2%
Source: Eurostat
Maize (incl. processed products) - Origin of EU Imports6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 2.5 mio t
Ukraine 44%
USA 19%
Russia 10%
Argentina 9%
Serbia 8%
Brazil 5%
Croatia 2%
South Africa 1% Others 2%
Source: Eurostat
30
EU maize importing MS and originsMaize (incl. processed products)
Main EU Importers and Country of Origin 6 months of marketing year 2011/12: 2.5 mio t
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Spain 37% Portugal 20% Netherlands 17% Italy 8% Greece 4% Utd. Kingdom 4%
1000
t
Ukraine USA Russia Argentina Serbia Brazil Croatia Others
Source:Eurostat
31
EU Commitments 2011/2012 (39 weeks)
Imports: 9.5 mio t (10.4 mio t in 2010/11; 6.3 mio t 2 years ago)4.9 mio t soft wheat 1.1 mio t durum wheat3.9 mio t maize 407 000 t barley
Exports: 17.6 mio t (21.2 mio t last year; 15.9 mio t 2 years ago)10.4 mio t soft wheat2.6 mio t barley in grain1.0 mio t durum wheat2.3 mio t maize
So far, the EU is a net cereal exporter of 8.1 mio t, against 10.8 miot last year and 9.6 mio t in 2009/2010.
Thank you for your attention!Balance sheet updates & market presentation
available:http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/balanc
e-sheets/index_en.htm
33
World wheat balance: USDA
121
167
202 199
3248 58 54 55 (54)
210 (213)610
682 686
652
694 (693)
617
641650 654
684 (680)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst
mio
t
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
mio
t
World Ending Stocksof which 5 major exportersWorld ProductionWorld Consumption
Source: USDA Mar. report
34
Wheat balance USDA vs. IGC (1)
641
650
678
645
651
682
686694
652
610
684
617
654
685
695
653
607
681
602
656
600
610
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst
Mio
t
USDA World Production USDA World Consumption IGC World Production IGC World Consumption
Source: USDA Mar. report
Source: IGC Feb. report
35
Wheat balance USDA vs. IGC (2)
199210
132
199
78 74 79
47
69
202
167
121
172
196
211
38
60
7771 76
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst
Mio
t
USDA World Stocks IGC World Stocks USDA 8 major exporters IGC 8 major exporters
Source: USDA Mar. report
Source: IGC Feb. report
36
USDA: Wheat production forecast
All wheat
137
56 54
30 25 23 2215
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
EU Russia USA Australia Canada Kazakhstan Ukraine Argentina
Mt
2009 2010 est 2011 fcst Source: USDA Mar. report
37
World maize balance: USDA
129149 144
129
41 43 4329 20 (20)
125 (125)
792799
819
771782
823
865 (864)
829
869 (868)
844
0
100
200
300
400
500
2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst
mio
t
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
880
900
mio
t
World Ending Stocksof which USWorld ProductionWorld Consumption
Source: USDA Mar. report
38
USDA: maize production forecast
Maize
314
65 6223 22
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
USA EU Brazil Ukraine Argentine
Mio
t
2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst
Source: USDA Mar. report
39
EU MS importing durumEU Durum Wheat Imports by MS
Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 1 mio t
Italy 76%
Belgium 11%
Netherlands 6%
Spain 2%
Germany 2%
Portugal 1%Poland 1%
Greece 1%
Source: Eurostat
EU Durum Wheat Imports by MS6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 1 mio t
Italy 81.3%
Belgium 10.9%
Utd. Kingdom 0.4%
Poland 0.4%
Netherlands 1.5%
Germany 5.1%
Greece 0.3%Others 0.1%
Source: Eurostat
40
EU durum export destinationsEU Durum Wheat export destinations
Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 0.5 mio t
Algeria 36%
Tunisia 25%
Ivory Coast 7%
Turkey 5%
Saudi Arabia 3%
Senegal 3%
Mauritania 2%
Nigeria 2%
Others 17%
Source: Eurostat
EU Durum Wheat export destinations6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 0.8 mio t
Algeria 46%
Morocco 18%
Others 8%Croatia 1%
Senegal 1%
Nigeria 1%
Mauritania 1%
Switzerland 1%Ivory Coast 8%
Tunisia 15%
Source: Eurostat
41
Barley EU exporting MS and destinationsMain EU-27 Barley and Malt Exporters and Countries of Destination
6 months of marketing year 2011/12: 3.5 mio t
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
France 24% Romania 15% Germany 15% Belgium 14% Denmark 7% Utd. Kingdom 5%
1000
t
Saudi Arabia Algeria Russia Jordan Morocco Venezuela Japan Others
Source:Eurostat
42
Barley EU exporting MS and destinationsMain EU-27 Barley and Malt Exporters and Countries of Destination
Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 3.5 mio t
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
France 22% Germany 19% Belgium 19% Romania 7% Denmark 4% Spain 4%
1000
t
Saudi Arabia Tunisia Venezuela Brazil Japan China Jordan Others
Source:Eurostat
43
US SRW wheat futures
44
CME wheat: open interest and net position of traders since 01/2011
WHEAT - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
4/01/2
01118
/01/201
11/0
2/2011
15/02
/2011
1/03/2
01115
/03/201
129
/03/201
112
/04/201
126
/04/201
110
/05/201
124
/05/201
17/0
6/2011
21/06
/2011
5/07/2
01119
/07/201
12/0
8/2011
16/08
/2011
30/08
/2011
13/09
/2011
27/09
/2011
11/10
/2011
25/10
/2011
8/11/2
01122
/11/201
16/1
2/2011
20/12
/2011
3/01/2
01217
/01/201
231
/01/201
214
/02/201
228
/02/201
2
Mill
ions
of c
ontr
acts
(136
met
ric to
nnes
)
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Thou
sand
s of
con
trac
ts (o
f 136
met
ric to
nnes
)
Open Interest
Managed money and other rep. -Net positions
45
EU Milling Wheat Futures since 11/2010
46
CME maize futures since 01/2010
47
CME maize: open interest and positions of traders since 01/2011
CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
4/01/2
01118
/01/201
11/0
2/2011
15/02
/2011
1/03/2
01115
/03/201
129
/03/201
112
/04/201
126
/04/201
110
/05/201
124
/05/201
17/0
6/2011
21/06
/2011
5/07/2
01119
/07/201
12/0
8/2011
16/08
/2011
30/08
/2011
13/09
/2011
27/09
/2011
11/10
/2011
25/10
/2011
8/11/2
01122
/11/201
16/1
2/2011
20/12
/2011
3/01/2
01217
/01/201
231
/01/201
214
/02/201
228
/02/201
2
Mill
ions
of c
ontr
acts
(127
met
ric to
nnes
)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Thou
sand
s of
con
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Open Interest
Managed money and other rep. -Net positions
48
EU maize futures since 01/2011