Market Returns During Election Years - Summit Financial...2000: Bush vs. Gore 2004: Bush vs. Kerry...

Market Returns During Election Years

Data as of December 31, 2019

Market Returns and Election Years

2Sources: S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved; MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved; Bloomberg Barclays Capital data provided by Bloomberg.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

It is difficult to identify systematic return patterns in elections years.

On average, market returns have been positive both in election

years and the subsequent year.

Market expectations associated with election outcomes are

embedded in security prices.

Returns During and After Election Years

3Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.

S&P 500 Index: 1928–2017

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

1928: Hoover vs. Smith

1932: Roosevelt vs. Hoover

1936: Roosevelt vs. Landon

1940: Roosevelt vs. Willkie

1944: Roosevelt vs. Dewey

1948: Truman vs. Dewey

1952: Eisenhower vs. Stevenson

1956: Eisenhower vs. Stevenson

1960: Kennedy vs. Nixon

1964: Johnson vs. Goldwater

1968: Nixon vs. Humphrey

1972: Nixon vs. McGovern

1976: Carter vs. Ford

1980: Reagan vs. Carter

1984: Reagan vs. Mondale

1988: Bush vs. Dukakis

1992: Clinton vs. Bush

1996: Clinton vs. Dole

2000: Bush vs. Gore

2004: Bush vs. Kerry

2008: Obama vs. McCain

2012: Obama vs. Romney

2016: Trump vs. Clinton

Average Return Year Subsequent to Election = 9.9%

Average Return During Election Year = 11.3%

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Annualized Returns During Presidential Terms

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Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: S&P data © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.

S&P 500 Index: 1929–2019

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

1929–1932: Hoover

1933–1936: Roosevelt




1949–1952: Truman

1953–1956: Eisenhower

1957–1960:Eisenhower

1961–1964: Kennedy

1965–1968: Johnson

1969–1972: Nixon

1973–1976: Nixon

1977–1980: Carter

1981–1984: Reagan

1985–1988: Reagan

1989–1992: Bush

1993–1996: Clinton

1997–2000: Clinton

2001–2004: Bush

2005–2008: Bush

2009–2012: Obama

2013–2016: Obama

2017–2019: Trump

Average Return for Presidential Terms = 10.3%


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1. Net dividends.Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved.

MSCI EAFE Index1: 1972–2017

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

1972: Nixon vs. McGovern







2000: Bush vs. Gore







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1. Net Dividends.Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: MSCI data © MSCI 2020, all rights reserved.

MSCI EAFE Index1: 1973–2019

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

1973–1976: Nixon

1977–1980: Carter

1981–1984: Reagan

1985–1988: Reagan

1989–1992: Bush

1993–1996: Clinton

1997–2000: Clinton

2001–2004: Bush

2005–2008: Bush

2009–2012: Obama

2013–2016: Obama

2017–2019: Trump



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1. Gross dividends. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index1: 1988–2017

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%




2000: Bush vs. Gore







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1. Gross dividends. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: MSCI data © MSCI 2020, all rights reserved.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index1: 1989–2019

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

1989–1992: Bush

1993–1996: Clinton

1997–2000: Clinton

2001–2004: Bush

2005–2008: Bush

2009–2012: Obama

2013–2016: Obama

2017–2019: Trump



9Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg.

Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index: 1976–2017

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%







2000: Bush vs. Gore







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10Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg.

Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index: 1977–2019

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

1977–1980: Carter

1981–1984: Reagan

1985–1988: Reagan

1989–1992: Bush

1993–1996: Clinton

1997–2000: Clinton

2001–2004: Bush

2005–2008: Bush

2009–2012: Obama

2013–2016: Obama

2017–2019: Trump


Presidential Elections and S&P 500 Returns

11Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Source: S&P data © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.

Histogram of Monthly Returns: January 1926–December 2019

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Monthly Return Ranges

Month a Republican Won Month a Democrat Won Non-Election Month

$0

$1

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$1,000

$10,000

1926 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

Republican President Democratic President

Coolidge

Hoover

Roosevelt

Truman

Eisenhower

Kennedy

JohnsonNixon Ford

Carter

Reagan

Bush

Clinton

Trump

Bush

Obama

Markets Have Rewarded Long-Term Investors under a Variety of Presidents


Growth of a Dollar Invested in the S&P 500: January 1926–December 2019

Midterm Elections and S&P 500 Index Returns


Histogram of Monthly Returns: January 1926–December 2019

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Monthly Return Ranges

Republican WinDemocratic WinMixedNo Election

$0

$1

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$1,000

$10,000

1926 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

Republican Democratic Mixed

Hypothetical Growth of $1 Invested in the S&P 500 Index and Party Control of Congress


January 1926–December 2019

Market Returns During Election Years - Summit Financial...2000: Bush vs. Gore 2004: Bush vs. Kerry...

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