Market Pulse Survey, June 2015
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Transcript of Market Pulse Survey, June 2015
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MARKET PULSEJune 2015
1
-
Survey Methodology
Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS
Respondents are asked about their last closedtransaction and business activity in their market areafor the previous month and the last year.
2
-
LASTTRANSACTION
3
-
More than 4/10TransactionsClosed BelowAsking Price
Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Over Below At
4
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Premium Paid OverAsking Price Increased
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?
7.3%8.0%
11%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Average
5
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Premium Paid OverAsking Price Stable
6.7% 7.5%7.9%
10% 10% 10%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
Average
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?
6
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Discount on Asking Price Increases
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
Jul-14Aug-
14Sep-
14Oct-
14Nov-
14Dec-
14Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Average -5.8% -5.6% -5.8% -6.3% -12% -13% -11% -11% -11% -11% -7.0% -11%
7
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Discount on Asking Price Decreased Slightly
-5.7%
-10% -11%-10%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
Average
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
8
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
65% of Properties Receiving MultipleOffers
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%Ja
n-14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
9
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
More Properties Receiving MultipleOffers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2014-Q12014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
69% 66%61%
58% 60%67%
Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?
10
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Number of Offers Received Flat
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0Ja
n-14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
2.7 2.82.9
Average
Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?
11
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Average Number of Offers Increased
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
3.12.8
2.52.4 2.6
3.1
Average
Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?
12
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Proportion of Properties with Listing PriceReductions Declining
Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?
20%
25% 26%28%
33%
29%31% 31% 31%
23%
28%25%
21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
13
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Proportion of Properties with Listing PriceReductions Declining
20%25%
31%28%
25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2014-Q2 (June) 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
Average
Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?
14
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
% of Previous Renters Flat
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?
37% 38%37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%Ja
n-14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
15
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Proportion of Previous Renters Slightly Down
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2014-Q12014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
46%
40%
34%40% 40%
38%
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?
16
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Fewer Sellers Becoming Renters
Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%Ja
n-14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
17
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Fewer Sellers are Becoming Renters
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
19%21%
18%20%
15% 15%
Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter after selling the property?
18
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Share of First-time Buyers Fluctuating
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?
24%
31% 30%
31%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%Ja
n-14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
% First-time Buyers Long Run Average
19
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Share of First-Time Buyers Declining
32%28% 30%
35%32% 30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?
20
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Majority Purchases are Primary Residences
Q: What was the intended use of the property?
74% 79% 75%
18% 13% 16%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other
21
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Majority Purchases are Primary Residences
Q: What was the intended use of the property?
75% 75% 76% 78% 75% 76%
18% 16% 16% 16% 18% 16%
3% 6% 6% 4% 4% 5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other
22
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
International Buyers Fluctuate
Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?
4.7%
3.2%
7.9%
6.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
% International Buyers Long Run Average
23
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
International Buyers Up Slightly
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2014-Q12014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
5.0% 5.0% 5.6%
8.5%
5.8% 6.0%
Q: Was the buyer an international client someone from the U.S. who purchased a property for a vacation orinvestment purposes?
24
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
MARKET CONDITIONS
25
-
Floor Calls from Potential Clients Declining
Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-
Jun-
15
Last MonthDown Flat Up
26
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Floor Calls from Potential Clients Up
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2014-Q12014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
22% 33% 45% 44%34%
18%
46%44% 34% 36%
31%
30%
33% 24% 21% 20%35%
52%
Last MonthDown Flat Up
27
Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
ListingAppointments/Presentations toClientsDecrease
Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in yourmarket area this month was
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Last Month
Down Flat Up
28
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
ListingAppointments/Presentations toClientsUp
24% 27%37% 45% 35%
17%
32%40%
37%34%
31%
26%
44%33% 26%
21%34%
56%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
Last Month
Down Flat Up
Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your marketarea this month was
29
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Open HouseTraffic Declining
Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15
Last Month Down Flat Up
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15
LastYear
30
-
Open HouseTraffic Up
Q: Please indicate the movement of each of the following in your market area compared to last month & lastyear Open house traffic
16%27%
38% 42% 31%19%
34%
37%
37%37%
31%
27%
50%36%
25% 21%38%
55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Last Month
21%35%
46% 49%
26%18%
29%
25%
25% 24%
22%21%
49%40%
29% 27%
52%62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
LastYearDown Flat Up
31
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Auctions Steady
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
Last Month Down Flat Up
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
LastYear
32
-
Auctions Increasing
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was
55% 54%66% 59% 55%
32% 37%23%
23% 26%
13% 10% 11% 18% 19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Last Month
61% 61%71% 68% 66%
26% 28%15% 15% 15%
14% 11% 13% 17% 19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%LastYear
Down Flat Up
33
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
All Cash Purchases Decreasing
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15
Last Month Down Flat Up
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15
LastYear
34
-
All Cash Purchases Up
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was
40% 44% 35% 28%
39% 36%35%
35%
21% 19%29% 37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014-Q32014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
Last Month
52% 59% 46% 41%
25%24%
22%23%
23% 18%32% 36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
LastYearDown Flat Up
35
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Majority of REALTORS Expect Better/SimilarMarketConditionsOver the NextYear
Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Worsen Same Improve
36
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
REALTORS Expect Mostly Similar/Better MarketConditionsOver the NextYear
0%10%20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
10% 15% 22%13%
8% 13%
36%45% 45%
45%
34%40%
55%40% 33%
42%
58% 47%
Worsen Same Improve
Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?
37
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Why REALTORS Expect MarketConditions toWorsen
New mortgage regulations, short supply, higher prices.
Prices are too high.
History.
Buyers are pulling away due to inflated prices.
Rising interest rates.
Q: Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?
38
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-
Top 10 Counties
Q: In which county do you live?
May 2015 June 2015
1 Los Angeles Los Angeles
2 San Diego San Diego
3 Alameda Riverside
4 Riverside Orange
5 Santa Clara Alameda
6 Sacramento Santa Clara
7 Orange Sacramento
8 Fresno San Luis Obispo
9 Contra Costa Marin
10 San Mateo Sonoma
39
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS