Market perspectives - July 2014

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Market Perspectives July 2014 July 4 th , 2014 www.finlightresearch.com The sea is calmest before a storm.

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Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover. The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives. Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class. Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com

Transcript of Market perspectives - July 2014

Page 1: Market perspectives - July 2014

Market Perspectives

July 2014

July 4th, 2014

www.finlightresearch.com

The sea is calmest before a storm.

Page 2: Market perspectives - July 2014

“... it is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets'

buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally.... Despite the euphoria

in financial markets, investment remains weak. Instead of adding to productive capacity,

large firms prefer to buy back shares or engage in mergers and acquisitions.

As history reminds us, there is little appetite for taking a long-term view. Few are

ready to curb financial booms that make everyone feel illusively richer. Or to hold back

on quick fixes for output slowdowns, even if such measures threaten to add fuel to

unsustainable financial booms. Or to address balance sheet problems head-on during a

bust when seemingly easier policies are on offer. The temptation to go for shortcuts is

simply too strong, even if these shortcuts lead nowhere in the end.”

BIS - Bank of International Settlements

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Page 3: Market perspectives - July 2014

Executive Summary: Global Asset Allocation

� US data remains supportive of the theme that the

economic recovery is a slow and steady one.

� The wide divergence between US job growth and economic

growth remains an enigma for us

� The hope of the Fed (as other Central Banks) is that they

can keep the markets afloat through forward guidance as

they slowly reduce their liquidity support

� Economic growth and company earnings volatility are at

historic lows. Uncertainty is bound to rise in the future

� Our concern is that long-risk strategies are justified, not

by strong growth, but instead by unvirtuous

combination of low growth, low volatility and low cash

rates

� Risky assets are not priced for any alternative scenario than

the optimistic one. We do not want to be exposed to such

a biased situation..

� We continue to see the main systemic risk coming from

China.

� We summarize our views as follows �

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Page 4: Market perspectives - July 2014

MACRO VIEW

� The Good

� The Conference Board consumer confidence (at 85.2), as the Michigan Sentiment (82.5) have

beaten expectations. Small business owners’ mood is also on an upside trend.

� Buybacks within the S&P500 are heading to their previous record highs of Q3-2007, and continue to

support the equity bull market.

� S&P500 forward earnings estimates continue to surprise by their stability and lack of volatility

� By all indications, the labor market is continuing to mend.

� The Bad

� With the stunning decline in Q1 GDP, the health of the US economy has once again taken center

stage

� Looking at the 3 month rate of growth, personal income appears to be trending up when consumer

expenditures continues to trend down

� The most recent S&P 500 correction greater than 10% was the 19.4% selloff in 2011

� Margin Debt & Credit Balance deliver the same warning message on stocks

� The S&P 500 price/sales ratio is approaching tops last seen during the dot.com fiesta

� The Ugly

� The unresolved rise in leverage in China

� The unexplained fall in Q1 GDP and the wide disconnection between US job growth and economic

growth

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Big Four Economic Indicators

� There is no indication of a recession using the indicators monitored by the NBER, even during Q1-2014

� Although Real Retail Sales for May were hardly encouraging, the May Industrial Production

strengthened the optimistic view about the US economy.

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Consumer Confidence

� The Conference Board consumer confidence (at 85.2), as the Michigan Sentiment have beaten

expectations. They are now on levels last seen in H2-2007

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Business Confidence

� According to the NFIB Business Optimism Index, the mood of small business owners is also on an

upside trend.

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Home Sales

� The housing crisis opened the "distressing gap" between existing and new home sales. This gap is

mainly due to distressed sales.

� As the number of distressed sales declines and new home sales increase, this gap is expected to slowly

close. This is confirmed by the ratio “Existing to New Home Sales” which has been trending down (it’s

back to its Nov. ‘08 levels).

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GS – Global Leading Indicator (GLI)

� Little improvement since last

month.

� According to the GLI, global growth

is no longer decelerating, but there

is no significant positive

acceleration.

� The GLI continues to locate the

global industrial cycle close to the

‘Expansion’ phase (defined by

positive and increasing momentum)

� 7 of the 10 underlying components

improved in June, like in May

� We still note the extreme

difficulty the GLI has to move

more decisively into expansion.

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Economic Surprises

� GS MAP Indices for macro data

surprise remain in positive territory

� However, MAP indices signal a

decrease in US and European data

surprises towards neutral levels.

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EM Economy

� Relative macro momentum seems to

shift in favor of EM versus DM

� EM growth forecasts are stabilizing

when those for DM are still heading

south

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Chinese Leverage

� In China, debt is rising much faster

than the economy

� But the government is obsessed by

maintaining growth around 7% -

7.5%

� � deleveraging the system is

perpetually delayed

� � the ultimate risk of a systemic

credit crisis is increasing.

� We are a few months to 2 years

from the final breakup

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EQUITY

� The risk-reward trade-off points to a more cautious approach to the equity markets, at least

tactically on the near term.

� On most equity indices, we see the potential for probably capturing another 3-4% on the upside versus

a 10-15% correction on the downside

� Valuation is also a concern for us, especially in the US. Everything is priced for the central optimistic

macro scenario. Equity sentiment indicators are in euphoria territory. No buffer is there to absorb any

macro disappointment. The US is, in our view, very vulnerable to any chock.

� European stocks have succeeded in tracking US equities despite poor fundamentals

� We believe the return potential for the equity market is corrupted by limited room for valuation and

margin expansion.

� We continue to think that any further upside on the S&P 500 should be driven by earnings

growth rather than P/E expansion

� The first real sign of momentum loss on the S&P500 will be a clean break below the uptrend since Nov.

2012.

� Bottom line :

� We remain Neutral equities. Breaking through the 1850 pivot on the S&P500 would likely be the

signal we wait for to go short stocks

� We keep our UW on Europe and EM vs. US. We remain neutral to UW on Japan

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Buybacks

� According to Yardeni Research, during Q1-

2014, buybacks within S&P500 reached

$637 billion at an annual rate, not far from

the previous record high of Q3-2007.

� As earnings yields exceed corporate bond

yields, corporations have a tendency to

borrow in the bond market and buy back

shares � Supporting the bull market and

artificially boosting earnings per share

whether without any improvement in

company’s fundamentals.

� But when corporate cash flows will

decrease and bond rates will go up,

buybacks will dry up and accelerate the

move down on stocks.

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Earnings

� Momentum in European / EM earnings

growth remained modest over the past few

months.

� In the US, the YoY EPS change has been

stable around 6%.

� The “forward 4-quarter” estimate of the SP

500 stands at $122.97, implying a P.E ratio

on the forward estimate of 16x

� We will soon roll into Q3-2014 and get the

quarterly bump in the “forward 4-quarter”

earnings estimate � Probable target ~125

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Margin Debt

� Margin debt seems to soar during market bubbles. In 2000 and 2007, it peaked a few month before the

market.

� We’ve seen an acceleration in margin debt growth since end of 2012 and probably a peak formation

in Feb ’14 followed by a sharp decline (-3.9% in March, -3.2% in April, +0.3% in May)

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Credit Balance

� Credit Balance on the NYSE = Free Credit Cash Accounts + Credit Balances in Margin Accounts –

Margin Debt

� Credit Balance deliver the same warning message than Margin Debt

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Where do we stand?

� The number of trading days where the S&P 500

Index has had an intraday move of 2% or more

points to a state of serenity last seen in 2006

� The current bull market has returned around

175% (the 3rd best overall since 1932) over a

duration of 266 weeks (the 2nd longest since

1932) � Caution is needed…

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Where do we stand?

� The number of trading days the S&P

500 has spent above its 200-day is the

highest ever!

� We are in the longest period of

positive sentiment in the history of

markets.

� All news, even bad news, are treated

as positive by the market or simply

ignored

� “Every day that goes by where risk

is ignored brings us closer to a

moment when panic will return”

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S&P Long-Term Valuation: Q-Ratio

� From a LT perspective, the current Q-Ratio clearly signals a market top.

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S&P Short-Term View

� The S&P500 remains in a Bullish

configuration as far as 1925-1940 area

is preserved.

� Although stretched, the index has room

to extend from current levels to 1980-

2000

� However, the price pattern and

divergences on the momentum seem

to warn of trouble. Breaking 1900 will

be an additional sign in that direction

and would open the door for a broader

correction back to 1844,1833 and 1822

(200d MA) important supports

� The first real sign of momentum loss

on the S&P500 will be a clean break

below the uptrend since Nov. 2012

around 1850

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Trading Model – S&P500

� Our prop. Short-Term trading model is now significantly short (as of July 3rd, spot=1985.44)

� The model targets 1961 – 1942 – 1903 – 1847 (a level similar to that given by the uptrend since Nov.

2012) and maintains its shorts till 2021!

� According to the model probabilities, the risk from here is biased to the downside

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FIXED INCOME & CREDIT

� We keep our short positioning on UST and expect 10-year yields to reach 2.90%-3.20% over next

months.

� We continue to OW Eurozone vs. US and UK given continued policy divergence and BCE activism.

� An improving Eurozone growth outlook and ECB credit easing measures should induce further

Peripheral-Core spread convergence. We see, however, reasons to be cautious as the current low

volatility environment is encouraging complacency , especially with the periphery. We remain neutral

Peripheral vs Core as we see lasting spread compression to be very limited.

� We remain bullish on TIPS breakevens and keep our 5y-TIPS breakeven wideners

� We stop the short 5yx5y Eurozone inflation we took as a hedge against the risk of Eurozone deflation.

� As a tail hedge, we keep our 10y bund swap spread receiver swap

� Rising Treasury rates would be disruptive to high yield technicals. We expect the high yield market

to slow its advance in the near term, even if default rates remain contained

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Page 24: Market perspectives - July 2014

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FIXED INCOME & CREDIT

� In corporate credit, investors appear to be seeking out risk on the margin, moving down in

quality in search for yield, encouraged by low default rates and benign event risk

� Credit spreads are close to pre-crisis lows, issuers are starting to leverage up and credit is likely the

relatively most over-owned asset class.

� We believe recent ECB policy action is likely to strengthen the search for yield environment.

� The search-for-yield is likely to remain strong and may push spreads a bit tighter over the rest of the

year. But, this is balanced by rising government bonds and significant risk of a liquidity shock

� We have downgraded corporate credit to UW on valuation, on position within the credit cycle and

given the weak total return forecast

� Intra credit, we keep our Neutral stance between the US and Europe. European credit is supported

by ECB QE, and has a much stronger potential for returns over the short-term but :

� this is mainly due to its much higher exposure to banks and peripheral credit.

� the growing yield differential between EUR and USD high yield should induce some reallocation

back into dollars, given the low cost of hedging the forex.

� On a risk-adjusted basis, we continue to prefer IG over HY. Recently, High yield spreads have

underperformed high grade, partly because of recent issuance volumes. We expect the erosion in

returns to be more pronounced in high yield than investment grade, due to the progressive

deterioration in new issue quality.

� Bottom line : Still UW Govies, UW credit, OW TIPS, UW High Yield vs High Grade

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US Treasuries

� U.S. 10-year yields push below 2.56%

was short lived

� The long term setup is structurally

positive and should remain so as long

as the downtrend from Jun. ‘07 is not

broken to the downside.

� We keep our target of 3.0 before year

end.

� Things are less clear on 10y Bund as

we get close to Jul. ‘12 lows of

1.12%... We have to wait and see if a

base will develop on these levels.

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US Treasuries

� Over the last weeks, short positions

on US debt securities have gained

momentum within hedge funds of the

Lyxor database

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Germany - Eurozone Periphery Spread

� The spread between German 10y

yields versus periphery (equally

weighted basket of 10-year France,

Italy and Spain) has recovered around

300bps from its 2012 lows

� We are now on an important technical

point (76.4% retrace of the widening

from 2005 to 2012) that should be

watched closely.

� Our feeling is that tightening is losing

momentum.

� We remain neutral Peripheral vs

Core as we see lasting spread

compression to be very limited.

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FI - Inflation

� Inflation seems bottoming globally and the

inflation theme is getting increasingly into

conversations.

� 10yr Tips Breakevens keep a positive bias

thanks to a macro environment that is

supportive of higher inflation expectations

and inflation risk premia.

� We like US TIPS breakeven wideners as

we expect the Fed to maintain a dovish

tone

FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com

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Credit – High Yield

� We move UW on credit overall and

specially on high yield.

� We are concerned by the deterioration of HY

credit quality.

� According to high yield metrics, leverage has

neared its tops, but interest coverage

remains healthy (thanks to low rates)

� Easy funding, low funding costs combined

with low volatility encourages the search for

yield and the use of leverage

� As credit spreads continue to tighten, credit

performance appears tremendously

attractive to investors, especially when

realized (and implied) volatilities are low.

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Page 30: Market perspectives - July 2014

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Credit – High Yield

� We move UW on credit overall and

specially on high yield.

� Carry strategies (partially encouraged by

Central Banks activism) feed on themselves

and have a tendency to exaggerate the

spread tightening (going through fair value

estimates) and to narrow the exit door for

potential leavers.

� Credit valuation is getting stretched as

corporates return capital to shareholders

through buybacks and increase their

leverage.

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Credit – Rating Actions

� Credit rating actions, including credit

watches, are increasing at a steady

pace.

� More volatility has to come…

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Credit – US vs Europe

� In IG as in HY, Europe has been outperforming the US for a while.

� We prefer however to stay regionally neutral as outperformance of European credit is mainly due to

its much higher exposure to banks and peripheral credit

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EXCHANGE RATES

� The June FOMC meeting was less hawkish than we expected. Nevertheless, we keep our view for a

stronger USD index in 2014 based on higher US rates and non-US fundamental weakness

� The ECB’s dovish rhetoric and action should finally diminish support for the Euro. Further weakening of

the EUR could be triggered by new ECB initiatives (asset purchases and an outright expansion of the

ECB balance sheet )

� On EUR-USD, we remain UW and target 1.34 - 1.31 - 1.28.and ultimately 1.25

� The ongoing deterioration in Japan's current account deficit , further policy initiatives (including both

additional QE and asset allocation out of domestic bonds), combined with the rise in US yields, should

drive USDJPY higher

� On the USD-JPY, the corrective phase has been well supported so far. The rally of the USD should

resume shortly. We are probably in a consolidation phase. Thus, we switch from UW to Neutral.

� EM fundamentals still feel less robust broadly speaking: As the Fed continues to taper (without being

hawkish), we expect many EM currencies to remain under pressure versus USD :

� Over the short-term, carry trades USD-EM should continue with stable USD and low volatility

� Over a longer term (more than 6 months), we get closer to effective Fed tightening and would see

USD gains versus EM currencies and a higher volatility

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EUR-USD

� Our constructive view for USD is

based on the belief that growth and

interest rate differentials favor the

US

� Over the short term, the recovery

from the June 12th low seems

exhausted. We expect a return to

1.35.

� Medium to long-term picture of

EUR-USD remains heavy with an

obvious lack of upside momentum.

� We remain UW and target 1.34 -

1.31 - 1.28 and ultimately 1.25.

� We keep this view as long as the

downtrend from Jul. ’08 is

preserved.

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USD-JPY

� The LT structure looks bullish but

the ST picture is not so clear.

� USD dropped to a more than one-

month low against the yen last week

after bad U.S. spending data

� The break below the 200d moving

average (~101.75) was notable,

but wasn’t sustained. We are

back above the 200d MA

� It is more like a consolidation

picture.

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COMMODITY

� We still think commodities hold value as cross-asset portfolio diversifiers.

� Commodities were the best performing asset class in H1-2014. All 5 commodity sectors have contributed

positively to overall index returns.

� We’ve been UW since end of Feb. ‘14. Since then, commodities have been rangy.

� We upgrade our commodity allocation to OW for several reasons:

� Better perspectives for energy and base metals. Many base metals (Zink, Aluminium…) appear to be

making notable breaks higher from a multi-year consolidation

� Supply risks in energy. In the energy sector, risks are skewed to the upside in an environment of

elevated geopolitical tensions and very limited OPEC spare capacity

� Attractive carry available in a number of commodity futures curves with steep backwardation

� rebounding manufacturing data in China

� Over the second half of 2014, we see significant downside for :

� Agriculture, as there are expectations of record inventory builds for staple cereals. We keep

however our OW view on premium coffee and cocoa because of the risk of El Nino and weather

volatility around the equator

� Precious metals: We think that recent gains in gold cannot be sustained as US real rates, the

S&P500 and the US dollar move higher. We expect precious metals to resume their downward trend

(targeting 1180-1150 on gold and 17 and eventually 12.50 on silver)

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Page 37: Market perspectives - July 2014

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Precious Metals: Silver

� Silver has rallied by more than

10% from its bottom in early

June, but we expect a pull-back

as RSI is in overbought status

� At 21.12, Silver is approaching a

top (resistance zone

~21.43/22.19) and should turn

down targeting 18.22, and

17.44,

FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com

Page 38: Market perspectives - July 2014

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Precious Metals: Gold

� Gold jumped higher on June 19th as weak U.S. data on consumer spending hurt the dollar.

� We are still expecting lower lows in the metals before this 3+ year correction is completed.

� We think that Gold is currently topping with price approaching the major resistance zone 1334/1372.

We target a test and a break of 2013 low (1180).

� We keep our bearish scenario as long as 1392 (Mar-14 high) is preserved on the upside.

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Energy: Crude Oil

� Large speculators marginally increased their WTI crude oil longs. CTAs and Global Macro managers

provide a hedge against geopolitical risks in the Middle East

� We were already OW Crude taking advantage of the high roll return from backwardated oil futures

curves

� We maintain our OW on WTI and play a break above the July 2011 high of 104.11. (with a stop at

103.55)

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ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES

� Hedge funds (especially return enhancers) seem to be getting increasingly long stocks.

� We prefer risk diversifiers to return enhancers

� We keep our OW on:

� Equity Market Neutrals despite its disappointing performance over the last 3 months

� Event-Driven, as M&A activity is heating up and Event-driven strategies continues to maintain

momentum. Merger arbitrageurs proved resilient during the recent weakness in global equity

markets.

� CTA’s and Global Macro as a diversifier and tail hedge. We proved correct with the Middle-East

geopolitical risks

� Vol. Arb strategy and prefer funds that trade volatility globally (all assets / all regions). This strategy

has shown a great ability in terms of protecting capital during adverse periods, and a volatility that

compares favorably with the hedge fund industry.

FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com

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Long/Short Equity Strategy

� According to a Pension Partners study, “Over time,

the long/short strategy has essentially morphed into

a lower beta, long-only product that has actually

delivered negative alpha in recent years and shown

an inability to protect capital during market declines.”

� The reason behind is probably a combination of

herding and career risk management (with managers

unwilling to bear the risk of not participating in an up

market)

� Given its new biases, LS Equity is clearly not

designed to help investors protect their capital

during the next downturn

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Page 42: Market perspectives - July 2014

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Hedge Fund Industry Overview

FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com

� It was a good week / month for CTAs. Trend-followers took advantage from Fed dovish

statement, both on their long positioning in LT rates (US & German), in stocks (including energy

stocks) and precious metals

� CB and Vol Arbitrage funds took advantage from the strong issuance in June, making money on

opportunities between primary and secondary markets.

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Hedge Fund Industry Overview

FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com

� By build-up their long energy positions during the last 3 months, CTAs and Global Macro managers

have provided the needed hedge against geopolitical risks in the Middle East

Page 44: Market perspectives - July 2014

Bottom Line: Global Asset Allocation

� US data remains supportive of the theme that the

economic recovery is a slow and steady one.

� The wide divergence between US job growth and economic

growth remains an enigma for us

� The hope of the Fed (as other Central Banks) is that they

can keep the markets afloat through forward guidance as

they slowly reduce their liquidity support

� Economic growth and company earnings volatility are at

historic lows. Uncertainty is bound to rise in the future

� Our concern is that long-risk strategies are justified, not

by strong growth, but instead by unvirtuous

combination of low growth, low volatility and low cash

rates

� Risky assets are not priced for any alternative scenario than

the optimistic one. We do not want to be exposed to such

a biased situation..

� We continue to see the main systemic risk coming from

China.

� We summarize our views as follows �

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FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com

Page 45: Market perspectives - July 2014

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Disclaimer

FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com

This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an

offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any

securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services

by FinLight Research in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation,

purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such

jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be

construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter.

FinLight Research expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions

taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.