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Market Outlook
May 29, 2018
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Market Cues
Indian markets are likely to open negative tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
U.S. Stocks turned in a lackluster performance during the last trading session. The
major averages spent the day bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line
before closing mixed. The Dow Jones dipped by 0.2% to 24,753 and the Nasdaq
climbed up by 0.1% to 7,434.
U.K. stocks rose modestly during the last trading session to rebound from two days
of losses as the pound selloff resumed amid growing Brexit uncertainty and after the
release of first-quarter GDP data. The benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.2% at
7,730.
On domestic front, Indian shares closed higher for a third day running on Monday
and the rupee hit a two-week high as geopolitical worries abated and a steep drop
in oil prices helped ease investor worries over inflation and twin deficits. The BSE
Sensex closed up by 0.7% at 35,165.
News Analysis
Increasing Target Price of GMM Pfaudler to ' 1020
L&T Construction secures two major orders worth Rs 57.04 billion
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Top Picks
Company Sector Rating CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Blue Star Capital Goods Buy 704 867 23.1
Dewan Housing Finance Financials Accumulate 629 720 14.4
Parag Milk Foods Others Buy 341 410 20.2
Navkar Corporation Others Buy 155 265 70.5
KEI Industries Capital Goods Buy 478 589 23.2
More Top Picks on Pg4
Key Upcoming Events
Date Region Event Description Previous
Reading
Consensus
Expectations
May 29, 2018 US Consumer Confidence 128.70 128.00
May 30, 2018 US GDP Qoq (Annualised) 2.30 2.30
May 30, 2018 Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 0.20 0.20
May 30, 2018 Germany Unemployment change (000's) (7.00) (10.00)
May 31, 2018 Germany PMI Manufacturing 56.80 56.80
More Events on Pg7
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
BSE Sensex 0.7 241 35,165
Nifty 0.8 83 10,689
Mid Cap 1.3 215 16,119
Small Cap 1.6 274 17,426
Bankex 1.2 350 29,891
Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Dow Jones (0.2) (59) 24,753
Nasdaq 0.1 9 7,434
FTSE 0.2 14 7,730
Nikkei (1.1) (239) 22,242
Hang Seng (0.4) (118) 30,674
Shanghai Com 0.0 1 3,136
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
Advances 1,853 1,295
Declines 867 508
Unchanged 158 67
Volumes (` Cr)
BSE 3,130
NSE 30,128
Net Inflows (̀ Cr) Net Mtd Ytd
FII (2,047) (8,950) (1,553)
*MFs 760 10,529 56,282
Top Gainers Price (` ) Chg (%)
JUSTDIAL 609 20.0
CANFINHOME 400 10.8
IBVENTUREPP 259 10.0
J&KBANK 57 9.3
ORIENTBANK 85 8.7
Top Losers Price (` ) Chg (%)
PCJEWELLER 179 -7.2
AVANTI 1819 -6.8
NIITTECH 1068 -4.8
DIVISLAB 1092 -4.7
MPHASIS 1072 -4.3
As on May 28, 2018
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May 29, 2018
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News Analysis
Increasing Target Price of GMM Pfaudler to ' 1020
GMM Pfaudler has given 31% returns since our coverage initiated on the stock,
last month. In view of continued traction in its user industries like Pharma and
Agrochemical, we are increasing our target price to ' 1020 ( revised target
multiple of 24x on its FY2020 earnings). In view of limited upside, we maintain
accumulate rating on the stock.
L&T Construction secures two major orders worth Rs 57.04 billion
Larsen & Toubro's construction arm has won orders worth Rs 57.04 billion in
domestic market. "The water and effluent treatment business of L&T
Construction has secured orders worth Rs 57.04 billion".
L&T has won two major orders from the Narmada Valley Development
Authority (NVDA), government of Madhya Pradesh, for execution of Indira Sagar
Project- Parwati phases I and II and Kalisindh phase I Micro Lift Irrigation Schemes.
The company has also received an EPC order from the Madhya Pradesh Jal
Nigam Maryadit for execution of Buxwaha Multi Village Rural Water Supply
Scheme.
Economic and Political News
According to foreign affairs, Economic diplomacy attracted over $209bn in
investments
AP govt likely to raise money from bond market to fund capital city project
EESL to invest Rs 36 bn in UP, to raise funds form Asian Development Bank
NIC rolls out Rs 2bn data centre at Bhubaneswar, its fourth in the country
Corporate News
ITC to acquire leading floor cleaner brand Nimyle for undisclosed sum
Munjal-Burman group agrees to re-open bidding, Fortis board undecided
Oil India posts higher Q4 net profit on better crude realisation
Ramdev's Patanjali ties up with BSNL, launches Swadeshi Samriddhi SIM cards
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Market Outlook
May 29, 2018
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Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
M&M Ltd – May 29, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)
Sales 13112 11125 17.9 11577 13.3
EBIDTA 1880 938 100.4 1495 25.8
% 14.3 8.4
16.2
PAT 1049 725 44.7 1216 (13.7)
Power grid Corporation of India Ltd – May 29, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)
Sales 7724 6712 15.0 7506 2.9
EBIDTA 6917 5618 23.1 6636 4.2
% 89.5 83.7
88.4
PAT 2258 1916 17.8 2041 10.6
BHEL Ltd – May 29, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)
Sales 10547 9688 8.8 6626 59.2
EBIDTA 903 651 38.7 295 206.0
% 8.6 6.7
4.5
PAT 462 215 114.9 153 202.0
Coal India Ltd – May 29, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)
Sales 24719 23171 6.7 21643 14.2
EBIDTA 6460 3387 90.7 4618 39.9
% 26.1 14.6
49.0
PAT 4341 2716 59.8 3005 44.5
BEL Ltd – May 29, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)
Sales 3452 3988 (13.4) 2513 37.4
EBIDTA 718 980 (26.7) 445 61.3
% 20.8 24.6
49.0
PAT 541 792 31.7 303 78.5
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Market Outlook
May 29, 2018
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Top Picks
Company Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%) Rationale
Alkem Laboratories 24,271 2,030 2,441 20.2
Strong growth in domestic business due to its
leadership in acute therapeutic segment. Alkem
expects to launch more products in USA, which
bodes for it s international business.
Blue Star 6,763 704 867 23.1
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
Dewan Housing Finance 19,743 629 720 14.4
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity i s immense.
ICICI Bank 192,406 299 416 39.0
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost ,
which would help to report better ROE.
KEI Industries 3,746 478 589 23.2
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Music Broadcast Limited 1,940 340 475 39.7
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Navkar Corporation 2,339 155 265 70.5
Massive capacity expansion along with rail
advantage at ICD as well CFS augur well for the
company
Siyaram Silk Mills 2,938 627 851 35.8
Strong brands and distribution network would
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at
an inexpensive valuation.
Maruti 262,986 8,706 10,619 22.0
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
GIC Housing 2,190 407 655 61.1
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
LT Foods 2,434 76 128 68.2
We expect sales/PAT to grow at 13.5%/20% over
next two years on the back of strong di stribution
network & addition of new products in portfolio.
Safari Industries 1,425 641 750 17.1
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
HSIL Ltd 2,532 350 510 45.6
We expect HSIL to report PAT CAGR of ~15% over
FY2017-20E owing to better improvement in
operating margin due price hike in container glass
segment, turnaround in consumer business.
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Top Picks
Company Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%) Rationale
Aditya Birla Capital 32,169 146 218 49.2
We expect financialisation of savings and
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
Parag Milk Foods 2,870 341 410 20.2
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
Matrimony.com Ltd 1,720 757 1,016 34.2
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improvement.
HDFC Bank 530,380 2,042 2,315 13.4
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
M&M 105,621 850 990 16.5
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Market Outlook
May 29, 2018
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Fundamental Call
Company Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%) Rationale
CCL Products 4,150 312 360 15.4
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth trajectory
over FY18-20 backed by capacity expansion and
new geographical foray
Nilkamal 2,547 1,707 2,178 27.6
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
healthy demand growth in plastic divi sion. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate ~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India Ltd 1,620 2,044 2,500 22.3
Elantas Beck India i s the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries 3,408 278 395 42.1
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and di stribution network
GMM Pfaudler Ltd 1,362 932 1020 9.5
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian market
leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment. GMM is
expected to cross CAGR 15%+ in revenue over the
next few years mainly led by uptick in demand from
user industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
L&T Finance Holding 34,586 173 210 21.2
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
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Market Outlook
May 29, 2018
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Key Upcoming Events
Result Calendar
Date Company
May 29, 2018 M&M, BHEL, IOB, Coal India, BPCL, Siyaram Silk Mills, Glenmark Pharma., Ipca labs, Power Grid Corpn, MT Educare
May 30, 2018 Crompton Greaves, BGR Energy , J & K Bank, SAIL, Monnet Ispat, ONGC, Tree House , HSIL, Banco, Tide Water Oil
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar
Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
May 29, 2018 7:30 PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 May 128.70 128.00
May 30, 2018 6:00 PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q S 2.30 2.30
2:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value May F 0.20 0.20
1:25 PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands May (7.00) (10.00)
May 31, 2018 1:25 PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value May F 56.80 56.80
6:00 PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands May 26 234.00 229.50
Jun 01, 2018 6:30 AM China PMI Manufacturing Value May 51.40 51.40
6:00 PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands May 164.00 190.00
6:00 PM US Unnemployment rate % May 3.90 3.90
2:00 PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value May 53.90 53.50
Jun 05, 2018 1:25 PM Germany PMI Services Value May F 52.10
Jun 06, 2018 2:30 PM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jun 6 5.75 5.75
2:30 PM India RBI Repo rate % Jun 6 6.00 6.00
2:30 PM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jun 6 4.00 4.00
Jun 07, 2018 2:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 1Q F 0.40
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
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Market Outlook
May 29, 2018
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Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 28 May, 2018
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
Source: RBI, Angel Research
7.3 7.6
8.0
7.2
9.1
8.1
7.6
6.8
6.1
5.7
6.5
7.2
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
4Q
FY15
1Q
FY16
2Q
FY16
3Q
FY16
4Q
FY16
1Q
FY17
2Q
FY17
3Q
FY17
4Q
FY17
1Q
FY18
2Q
FY18
3Q
FY18
(%)
2.9
(0.3)
1.0
4.8
4.1
1.8
8.5
7.3 7.4 7.0
4.4
(1.0)
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
(%)
2.2
1.5
2.4
3.3 3.3
3.6
4.9
5.2 5.1
4.4 4.3
4.6
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
(%)
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0 M
ar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Mfg. PMI Services PMI
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
Jul-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Apr-18
Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)
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Market Outlook
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Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research
0.3
2.5
5.3
6.9
1.1
5.0
5.8
3.7
1.5
2.2
0.8
1.8
1.4
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Bra
zil
Russia
Ind
ia
Ch
ina
South
Africa
Ind
onesia
Ma
laysia
Tha
ilan
d
UK
USA
Germ
any
France
Ja
pa
n
(%)
0.7
1.8
6.7 6.8
0.7
5.2 5.4
3.7
1.7
2.2 2.0
1.6 1.5
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South A
frica
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germ
any
France
Japan
(%)
11
.2
5.7
19
.2
11
.9
15
.7
16
.1
15
.2
15
.3
13
.7
15
.9
13
.1
14
.5
13
.7
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South
Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germ
any
France
Japan
(x)
5
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Market Outlook
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Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country Name of index Closing price 1M 3M 1YR
Brazil Bovespa 75,356 (11.4) (13.7) 22.2
Russia Micex 4,491 1.4 7.1 11.4
India Nifty 10,689 1.1 2.8 14.2
China Shanghai Composite 3,135 0.6 (4.0) 1.5
South Africa Top 40 50,551 (0.6) (0.9) 6.3
Mexico Mexbol 44,851 (6.7) (7.6) (9.7)
Indonesia LQ45 978 (3.3) (11.5) 2.6
Malaysia KLCI 1,776 (5.9) (4.4) (0.1)
Thailand SET 50 1,141 (3.0) (2.4) 16.1
USA Dow Jones 24,753 2.8 (2.2) 17.4
UK FTSE 7,730 4.1 6.2 2.7
Japan Nikkei 22,481 1.8 2.3 14.8
Germany DAX 12,863 2.5 3.2 2.1
France CAC 5,509 1.8 3.8 3.6
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
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Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added Top Picks/Fundamental Stocks Reco Price Target/Revised Price Current Status
04-05-2018 Top Picks M&M 860 990 Open
03-05-2018 Fundamental L&T Finance Holding 171 210 Open
02-05-2018 Top Picks HDFC Bank 1944 2315 Open
04-05-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 810 1016 Open
20-04-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 781 984
15-05-2018 Top Picks Parag Milk Foods Limited 310 410 Open
16-04-2018 Top Picks Parag Milk Foods Limited 249 333
29-05-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 932 1,020 Open
14-05-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 818 900
06-04-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 712 861
07-03-2018 Fundamental Ashok Leyland Ltd 139 163 Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018 Fundamental Greenply Industries 340 395 Open
16-04-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 651 750 Open
21-02-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 532 650
16-02-2018 Top Picks HSIL Ltd 433 510 Open
07-02-2018 Fundamental Elantas Beck India Ltd. 2155 2500 Open
01-02-2018 Top Picks ICICI Bank 352 416 Open
01-02-2018 Top Picks Aditya Birla Capital 167 218 Open
04-01-2018 Fundamental CCL Products 278 360 Open
03-01-2018 Fundamental Nilkamal Ltd 1880 2178 Open
01-01-2018 Fundamental Capital First Ltd 693 850 Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017 Fundamental Shreyans Industries Ltd 205 247 Closed
Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd
160 Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017 Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd 118 131
18-12-2017 Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited 92 114 Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017 Top Picks Ruchira Papers Ltd. 188 244 Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018 Top Picks Century Plyboards India 280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017 Top Picks Century Plyboards India 317 400
19-12-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 85 128 Open
06-11-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 74 96
16-10-2017 Fundamental Endurance Technologies Ltd 1111 1277 Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017 Top Picks GIC Housing 533 655 Open
10-10-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 404 475 Open
20-07-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 368 434
07-07-2017 Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd 149 179 Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017 Fundamental Syngene International 478 564 Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017 Top Picks Maruti 7371 10619 Open
05-06-2017 Top Picks Karur Vysya Bank 127 100 Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018 Top Picks KEI Industries 481 589 Open
04-01-2017 Top Picks KEI Industries 125 485
01-12-2016 Top Picks Alkem Lab 1700 2441 Open
17-10-2016 Top Picks Asian Granito 267 534 Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018 Top Picks TV Today Network 460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016 Top Picks TV Today Network 297 603
05-04-2016 Top Picks DHFL 189 720 Open
05-01-2016 Top Picks Navkar Corporation 207 265 Open
08-12-2015 Top Picks Blue Star 357 867 Open
30-10-2015 Top Picks Siyaram Silk Mills 186 851 Open
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Source: Company, Angel Research
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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