Market Outlook 290612

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 290612

1/14

Market OutlookJune 29, 2012

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers Diary

The Indian markets are expected to open in green tracking positive cues from SGX

Nifty. Asian shares and the euro were under pressure as European leaders argued

over how to ease borrowing strains in Italy and Spain and stop the euro zone debt

crisis spreading, with investors fearful of US reaction to the deadlock.US stocks saw significant weakness throughout much of the trading day on

Thursday, the markets staged a significant recovery attempt in the final hour of

trading. The major averages climbed well off their worst levels of the day but still

closed in negative territory. Lingering concerns about the financial situation in

Europe contributed to the early weakness on Wall Street along with a negative

reaction to the Supreme Court's decision to uphold President Obama's healthcare

reform law, including the law's individual insurance mandate.

Continued expectations of government action to revive domestic growth helped

Indian shares shrug off weak global cues on Thursday. The rupee also traded firm,

bolstered by dollar selling by banks and exporters after PM sought to give a big

push to the sagging economy.

Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 16,981 / 5,145 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 17,043 17,096 / 5,164 5,178 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

16,981 / 5,145 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

16,928 16,866 / 5,130 5,111 levels.

SENSEX 16,866 16,928 16,981 17,043 17,096

NIFTY 5,111 5,130 5,145 5,164 5,178

News Analysis Coal India gets NTPC's de-allocated coal mines SBI cuts its lending rates for exporters by 50bp CG inaugurates new EHV switchgear manufacturing facility in Brazil Petrol price cut by`2.46/litre DoT to slap penalties `1,594cr on five mobile phone firms this week PM moves to soften GAAR EU summit works on short-term support for Spain, ItalyRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (June 27, 2012)

FII 1,918 1,651 267 856 42,794

MFs 383 319 64 118 (6,348)

FII Derivatives (June 28, 2012)

Index Futures 5,385 5,354 31 10,982

Stock Futures 6,243 6,198 46 21,369

Gainers / Losers

Bajaj Finserv 679 5.4 JPPOWER 35 (4.4)

Educomp Sol 171 4.3 JSW Ispat 10 (3.5)

MMTC 738 3.8 Manappuram Fin 32 (3.2)

Century Tex 300 3.3 Axis Bank 971 (3.0)

Indian Hotels 61 3.1 Sesa Goa 186 (2.9)

BSE Sensex 0.1 23.0 16,991

Nifty 0.1 7.3 5,149

MID CAP 0.1 4.0 6,055

SMALL CAP 0.2 14.5 6,459

BSE HC (0.0) (1.3) 6,757

BSE PSU 0.3 21.9 7,133

BANKEX (0.3) (36.8) 11,508

AUTO 0.1 7.8 9,256

METAL 0.2 17.2 10,426

OIL & GAS (0.4) (29.1) 7,941

BSE IT 0.2 12.3 5,688

Dow Jones (0.2) (24.8) 12,602NASDAQ (0.9) (25.8) 2,849

FTSE (0.6) (30.9) 5,493

Nikkei 1.7 143.6 8,874

Hang Seng (0.8) (151.7) 19,025

Straits Times 0.2 5.2 2,847

Shanghai Com (1.0) (21.1) 2,196

INFY (1.0) (0.4) $42.8

WIT (0.9) (0.1) $8.7IBN (0.5) (0.1) $30.4

HDB (0.6) (0.2) $31.0

Advances 1,448 736

Declines 1,312 690

Unchanged 138 82

BSE 4,307

NSE 11,322


2/14



Media reports suggest that Coal Ministry has given three de-allocated mines to

Coal India (CIL) and has asked CIL to appoint mine developers to begin theproduction from these blocks at the earliest. The three allocated blocks include

Brahmini, Chichro Patsimal and Damogoria blocks. We believe CIL will start

developing these blocks, but it is unlikely to commence production from these

blocks in the near term. Hence, we await further clarity on this matter.

State Bank of India (SBI) has reduced its lending rates for export credit by 50bp

w.e.f. June 23, 2012, responding to recent RBI action of enhancing the limit for

export credit refinance (ECR) from 15% to 50%. We expect the bank to report NIM

of 3.7% and 3.4% for FY2013 and FY2014, respectively.

CG (Crompton Greaves Ltd) commenced operations of its new Extra High Voltage

(EHV) Switchgear manufacturing facility in Brazil. It will manufacture a full range of

EHV switchgear targeted at the Brazilian Utility market segment. It intends to

differentiate by introducing its latest models and provide Brazilian customers with a

30 per cent reduced lead time. CG expects to reach $50mn during the first year

of operations. CG has already received more than USD 6 million worth of orders

from Utilities such as CEMIG, CPFL, CEEE, RGE and Toshiba.

`

Oil marketing companies (OMCs) have reduced petrol prices by`2.46/liter.

OMCs had already cut petrol prices by`2.02/liter on June 3, 2012. Petrol prices

have been lowered due to declining global crude oil prices over the past one

month. Brent crude oil price has declined from US$103/bbl on May 31, 2012, to

US$93/bbl as on June 28, 2012. Since petrol prices are not included in the

calculation of under-recoveries, we do not change our estimates for under-

recoveries for FY2013.


3/14



The telecoms department (DoT) will this week formally slap penalties totaling

`1,594crore on five mobile phone firms, after it rejected their defence against

charges that accused them of understating revenues and paying less levies. The

DoT plans to send demand notices to Bharti Airtel, Idea Cellular, Vodafone, Tata

Teleservices, Tata Communications and RCom by the month-end. Earlier this year,

these companies were slapped with showcause notices after a DoT appointed

panel endorsed the findings of external auditors, which said these operators had

understated revenues by`10,268cr during 2006-07 and 2007-08. Since telcos

pay 6-10% of their annual revenue as license fee and 2-6% as spectrum usage

charges, reporting lower revenue brings down the component they have to share

with the government. The DoT had also obtained the law ministry's approval prior

to sending out showcause notices. But all telcos had denied any wrongdoing and

slammed the DoT panel's findings.

The department has estimated that Bharti Airtel will have to pay penalties to the

tune of `292cr while for Vodafone it will be `254cr. The penalty for Idea works to

`113cr, Tata Teleservices at `273cr and Tata Communications at about `120cr

while RCom will have to pay about `551crore. This includes interest and other

related fines for the alleged violations. We continue to maintain our Neutral view

on the overall telecom sector owing to regularity uncertainties as well as increase

in interest payments of various companies (Bharti Airtel, RCom) which has got

forex debt in their books due to sharp INR depreciation.

As per media reports, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has kicked off a review of

the controversial changes that scared away foreign investors. PM has asked

finance ministry officials to examine the whole gamut of tax issues concerning

portfolio investors which include the General Anti-avoidance Rules (GAAR)

intended to check tax evasion by creating structures sans commercial substance.

With regard to the new provision to tax overseas transactions involving Indian

assets for capital gains, the sources did not even rule out a clarification that no

past deals would be taken up in such cases even if the assessment process was not

complete. The PMO has sought clarifications on all tax issues (pertaining toinvestors) and expects clarifications on indirect transfers pertaining to FIIs will be

issued in a few weeks.

Italy and Spain, battling searing market pressure in the euro zone's widening debt

crisis, blocked agreement on measures to promote growth at a European Union

summit on Thursday to demand urgent action to bring down their borrowing costs.

As per three EU sources, work was focused on using the euro zone's temporary

EFSF rescue fund and a future permanent ESM bailout fund to buy new Spanishand Italian bonds as they were issued to underpin their bond auctions. The funds

will have a maximum firepower of 500bn once the ESM is fully stocked in 2013,

minus 100bn already earmarked to aid Spanish banks. It is expected that an


4/14



agreement could be clinched at a meeting of the 17 euro zone leaders today after

the regular 27-nation EU summit ends.

In draft summit conclusions, subject to amendment today, the leaders were set to

ask the EU's top four officials to produce a detailed, time-bound roadmap in

December leading to a genuine economic and monetary union. European CouncilPresident and European Commission President have set long-term goals of

creating a euro zone treasury to issue joint bonds in the medium-term, and

establishing a banking union with central supervision, a joint deposit guarantee

and a resolution fund.

Economic and Political News

Private airlines may get subsidy for flying to northeast Petrol price cut by Rs 2.46/litre, scope for more reduction

Indian economic confidence slips in May on weak rupee, inflation Land deals in India to drop by 20% this yr to Rs 15k cr: C&W

Corporate News

SAIL consortium may sigh pact with Afghanistan next month Bajaj Auto may hike prices as rupee fall raises input costs Gati forms JV with Japanese firm to reduce debt, interest cost Lanco commissions Bangalore-Mangalore toll roadSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint


5/14

Global economic events release calendar

Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

July 01, 2012 China PMI Manufacturing Value JUN 50.40 49.80

July 02, 2012 India Imports YoY% % Change MAY 3.80 --India Exports YoY% % Change MAY 3.20 --

UK PMI Manufacturing Value JUN 45.90 --

Germany PMI Manufacturing Value JUN F 44.70 44.70

July 04, 2012 Germany PMI Services Value JUN F 50.30 50.30

July 05, 2012 UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio JUL 5 0.50 0.50

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % JUL 5 1.00 0.75

July 06, 2012 US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands JUN 69.00 92.50

US Unnemployment rate % JUN 8.20 8.20

July 09, 2012 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change JUN 3.00 2.30

July 10, 2012 UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change MAY (1.00) --

China Exports YoY% % Change JUN 15.30 10.10

July 12, 2012 India Industrial Production YoY % Change MAY 0.10 --

July 13, 2012 IndiaMonthly Wholesale PricesYoY%

% Change JUN 7.55 --

US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change JUN (1.00) --

China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change JUN 9.60 --

China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q 8.10 --

July 16, 2012 Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % JUN 2.40 --

July 17, 2012 UK CPI (YoY) % Change JUN 2.80 --

US Industrial Production % JUN (0.09) --

US Consumer price index (mom) % Change JUN (0.30) --

July 18, 2012 US Housing Starts Thousands JUN 708.00 --

US Building permits Thousands JUN 784.00 --

UK Jobless claims change % Change JUN 8.10 --

July 19, 2012 US Existing home sales Millions JUN 4.55 --

July 25, 2012 US New home sales Thousands JUN 369.00 --

July 31, 2012 US Consumer ConfidenceS.A./

1985=100JUL 62.00 --

India RBI Repo rate % JUL 31 8.00 --

India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % JUL 31 4.75 --

India RBI Reverse Repo rate % JUL 31 7.00 --

August 01, 2012 US FOMC rate decision % AUG 1 0.25 --

July 31, 2012 US Consumer ConfidenceS.A./

1985=100JUL 62.00 --

India RBI Repo rate % JUL 31 8.00 --

India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % JUL 31 4.75 --

India RBI Reverse Repo rate % JUL 31 7.00 --

August 01, 2012 US FOMC rate decision % AUG 1 0.25 --

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research


June 29, 2012

Market Outlook


6/14

Market StrategyJune 29, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit 1:Quarterly GDP trends

5.9

7.5

9.8

7.4

9.4

8.5

7.68.2

9.2

8.0

6.76.1

5.3

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

(%)

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:IIP trends

6.2

9.5

3.7 3.42.5

(5.0)

6.0

2.7

1.0

4.1

(3.2)

0.1

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

(%)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3:Monthly WPI inflation trends

9.5 9.4 9.810.0 9.9 9.5

7.76.9

7.4 7.7 7.2 7.6

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

(%)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4:Manufacturing and services PMI

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5:Exports and imports growth trends

(15.0)

0.0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

75.0

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

Expor ts yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 6:Key policy rates

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

Source: RBI, Angel Research


7/14

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 135 - 2,629 1,432 1,647 14.7 14.7 7.0 8.0 19.3 16.9 4.1 3.5 22.8 22.3 1.9 1.6

United Phosphorus Buy 123 183 5,654 8,191 8,764 16.5 16.5 17.1 18.3 7.2 6.7 1.2 1.0 17.5 16.2 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 304 345 2,600 2,715 3,041 15.3 15.3 29.2 32.8 10.4 9.3 2.4 2.0 26.0 23.3 0.9 0.8

Apollo Tyres Buy 78 100 3,926 13,699 15,184 10.5 10.2 12.1 13.3 6.4 5.9 1.2 1.0 19.7 18.4 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 25 33 6,572 14,798 16,687 9.6 9.6 2.4 3.0 10.2 8.3 2.0 1.8 14.8 16.5 0.5 0.5

Automotive Axle Accumulate 448 514 677 1,211 1,387 12.1 11.7 50.3 57.1 8.9 7.9 2.2 1.8 27.8 25.7 0.6 0.5Bajaj Auto Buy 1,550 1,835 44,865 22,118 24,889 19.0 18.6 115.7 126.5 13.4 12.3 5.4 4.3 45.0 38.9 1.6 1.3

Bharat Forge Buy 291 372 6,772 7,173 7,998 16.3 16.5 22.3 26.6 13.0 11.0 2.5 2.1 21.0 21.0 1.1 0.9

Bosch India Accumulate 8,768 9,429 27,530 9,390 10,716 19.5 19.1 420.2 471.4 20.9 18.6 4.9 4.1 23.3 21.8 2.7 2.3

CEAT Buy 98 164 337 5,067 5,631 8.0 7.6 39.4 41.0 2.5 2.4 0.4 0.4 18.8 16.5 0.3 0.3

Exide Industries Accumulate 135 146 11,467 5,787 6,595 15.5 17.0 7.1 9.0 19.0 15.1 3.3 2.9 18.6 20.3 1.7 1.4

FAG Bearings Accumulate 1,433 1,594 2,381 1,531 1,748 18.8 18.5 118.0 132.8 12.2 10.8 2.6 2.2 24.0 21.9 1.3 1.1

Hero Motocorp Accumulate 2,088 2,221 41,691 26,106 29,296 15.0 15.2 140.3 148.1 14.9 14.1 7.0 5.4 54.8 43.3 1.3 1.0

JK Tyre Buy 94 135 386 7,950 8,904 5.5 6.0 25.1 38.6 3.7 2.4 0.4 0.4 12.1 16.4 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 690 821 42,343 36,010 40,882 10.0 10.0 47.7 53.3 14.5 12.9 2.9 2.5 21.3 20.6 0.9 0.8

Maruti Buy 1,119 1,510 32,315 42,683 48,736 7.1 7.5 86.6 100.6 12.9 11.1 1.9 1.6 15.3 15.5 0.5 0.4

Motherson Sumi Buy 164 216 6,417 23,342 26,366 7.8 8.2 13.3 18.0 12.3 9.1 2.9 2.3 26.2 28.4 0.4 0.4

Subros Accumulate 34 36 202 1,244 1,402 8.4 8.3 4.5 5.1 7.5 6.6 0.7 0.7 9.9 11.0 0.4 0.3

Tata Motors Buy 240 299 63,936 189,676 210,905 12.5 12.6 39.8 45.2 6.0 5.3 2.5 2.0 44.3 41.6 0.4 0.4

TVS Motor Buy 34 44 1,615 7,690 8,459 6.1 6.0 5.0 5.5 6.8 6.2 1.2 1.1 19.0 18.6 0.2 0.1

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 791 498 16,768 8,760 10,023 7.6 7.5 18.2 20.7 43.4 38.2 5.8 5.2 14.4 14.6 1.9 1.7BGR Energy Neutral 294 - 2,120 4,195 4,837 11.0 11.0 30.1 32.4 9.8 9.1 1.7 1.5 18.4 17.6 1.0 1.0

BHEL Neutral 221 - 54,141 46,344 46,916 18.3 18.6 23.5 24.1 9.4 9.2 1.9 1.6 21.3 18.9 1.1 1.0

Blue Star Neutral 162 - 1,459 3,047 3,328 5.4 6.9 9.6 16.2 16.9 10.0 3.3 2.7 20.7 29.7 0.6 0.5

Crompton Greaves Buy 120 142 7,669 12,451 14,265 7.9 8.3 8.0 9.5 15.0 12.6 2.0 1.8 13.9 14.9 0.7 0.6

Jyoti Structures Buy 39 67 318 2,622 2,801 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.4 3.6 2.9 0.5 0.4 13.7 14.9 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 55 73 1,424 6,686 7,200 8.5 8.8 10.6 12.2 5.3 4.5 1.0 0.8 25.9 24.0 0.4 0.4

LMW Buy 1,603 1,992 1,806 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 11.2 9.7 1.9 1.7 17.4 18.4 0.3 0.2

Thermax Neutral 478 - 5,700 5,514 5,559 9.8 9.6 29.7 28.4 16.1 16.9 3.0 2.7 20.2 16.9 0.9 0.8


June 29, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


8/14



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,222 - 22,941 11,018 12,663 19.9 21.2 70.7 81.2 17.3 15.1 3.0 2.7 18.0 19.0 1.9 1.5

Ambuja Cements Neutral 173 - 26,610 10,035 11,504 23.5 23.8 10.1 10.6 17.1 16.4 3.4 3.0 18.5 19.4 2.2 1.8

India Cements Neutral 84 - 2,582 4,423 4,906 18.2 18.8 9.9 12.7 8.5 6.6 0.7 0.7 8.6 10.5 0.9 0.8

J K Lakshmi Cements Buy 67 79 820 1,938 2,246 19.1 20.1 14.6 16.1 4.6 4.2 0.6 0.5 13.4 13.6 0.5 0.9

Madras Cements Neutral 151 - 3,592 3,444 3,786 25.5 24.9 14.6 17.1 10.4 8.9 1.5 1.3 15.6 16.0 1.7 1.4

Shree Cements Neutral 2,918 - 10,165 5,465 6,249 24.3 23.7 151.5 222.1 19.3 13.1 4.6 4.0 21.6 25.8 1.4 1.1

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,505 - 41,255 20,116 22,655 21.3 22.5 82.1 97.5 18.3 15.4 2.9 2.5 16.8 17.4 1.9 1.8Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 212 273 1,119 2,014 2,293 22.4 22.4 22.6 26.7 9.4 8.0 1.0 0.9 11.4 11.9 2.3 2.6

Consolidated Co Neutral 13 - 249 2,526 2,792 5.7 6.6 1.8 2.8 7.3 4.8 0.4 0.4 5.5 8.1 0.3 0.3

Hind. Const. Neutral 20 - 1,186 4,239 4,522 11.1 11.8 (1.8) (0.8) (10.9) (25.0) 1.1 1.3 (9.5) (4.7) 1.3 1.2

IRB Infra Buy 122 166 4,048 3,821 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.0 16.9 8.1 7.2 1.2 1.1 16.1 15.8 2.7 2.5

ITNL Buy 179 265 3,470 6,619 7,925 23.8 23.3 22.0 26.7 8.1 6.7 1.1 1.0 14.9 15.9 2.2 2.1

IVRCL Infra Buy 52 61 1,376 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 20.4 11.3 0.7 0.6 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.7

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 72 88 15,204 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.2 5.0 16.9 14.3 1.4 1.3 8.5 9.3 2.4 2.1

Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,341 1,553 82,183 59,559 69,089 12.1 11.5 70.8 76.5 19.0 17.5 2.8 2.5 16.1 15.3 1.6 1.4

Madhucon Proj Buy 37 56 274 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 8.0 7.9 0.4 0.4 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 40 - 1,029 5,453 6,169 8.1 8.5 1.6 1.9 24.4 20.8 0.4 0.4 1.8 2.1 0.6 0.7

Patel Engg. Neutral 89 - 623 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 6.4 6.1 0.4 0.4 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.1

Punj Lloyd Neutral 47 - 1,556 11,592 12,993 8.4 8.4 1.8 3.2 26.0 14.6 0.5 0.5 2.0 3.4 0.6 0.6

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 144 182 2,164 2,789 3,147 10.6 10.7 8.4 10.4 17.1 13.8 2.3 2.0 15.0 15.6 0.9 0.8

Simplex Infra Buy 210 265 1,040 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.5 29.4 8.9 7.2 0.8 0.8 9.6 11.0 0.5 0.4

FinancialsAllahabad Bank Neutral 147 - 7,345 7,392 8,542 3.1 3.1 38.3 42.1 3.8 3.5 0.7 0.6 18.4 17.6 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 116 - 6,491 5,151 5,843 3.2 3.1 22.4 25.7 5.2 4.5 0.8 0.7 15.8 16.0 - -

Axis Bank Buy 971 1,476 40,228 16,157 19,557 3.2 3.2 116.4 139.1 8.3 7.0 1.5 1.3 20.0 20.3 - -

Bank of Baroda Buy 721 925 28,238 15,993 18,918 2.6 2.6 127.3 149.9 5.7 4.8 0.9 0.8 17.8 18.2 - -

Bank of India Accumulate 345 389 19,784 13,558 15,551 2.5 2.4 61.6 70.8 5.6 4.9 0.9 0.8 16.8 16.9 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Accumulate 49 53 2,874 3,580 4,050 3.2 3.2 11.5 13.1 4.2 3.7 0.7 0.6 17.4 17.2 - -

Canara Bank Buy 406 493 17,981 12,061 13,906 2.3 2.3 83.1 92.7 4.9 4.4 0.8 0.7 16.7 16.4 - -

Central Bank Neutral 78 - 5,705 6,838 7,912 2.3 2.4 13.8 20.3 5.6 3.8 0.8 0.7 10.9 14.4 - -


June 29, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


9/14



Financials

Corporation Bank Accumulate 413 468 6,122 5,203 5,880 2.2 2.1 107.5 112.7 3.9 3.7 0.7 0.6 17.9 16.5 - -

Dena Bank Accumulate 97 107 3,380 3,149 3,522 2.8 2.8 23.3 26.1 4.1 3.7 0.7 0.6 17.7 17.0 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 445 - 7,600 2,743 3,131 3.4 3.3 49.7 57.4 9.0 7.7 1.2 1.1 14.1 14.6 - -

HDFC Neutral 645 - 96,124 7,393 8,844 3.5 3.4 31.7 37.9 20.4 17.0 4.1 3.6 34.7 31.9 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 547 - 128,751 21,831 27,477 4.3 4.3 28.3 35.5 19.3 15.4 3.7 3.1 20.8 22.1 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 857 1,174 98,445 22,209 26,512 2.8 2.8 67.9 81.1 12.6 10.6 1.5 1.4 14.7 16.0 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 91 113 11,621 8,004 9,589 1.9 2.0 19.9 23.9 4.6 3.8 0.6 0.5 13.8 14.9 - -Indian Bank Accumulate 168 190 7,239 6,312 7,119 3.4 3.3 41.1 43.7 4.1 3.9 0.7 0.6 18.2 16.9 - -

IOB Accumulate 82 92 6,571 7,354 8,283 2.5 2.4 16.3 21.7 5.1 3.8 0.6 0.5 11.5 13.9 - -

J & K Bank Neutral 974 - 4,724 2,535 2,861 3.5 3.4 176.3 184.4 5.5 5.3 1.0 0.9 19.3 17.6 - -

LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 263 286 13,285 2,108 2,607 2.6 2.6 24.5 30.6 10.8 8.6 2.0 1.7 20.1 21.4 - -

Oriental Bank Accumulate 246 262 7,163 6,431 7,315 2.7 2.6 54.4 63.8 4.5 3.9 0.6 0.5 13.6 14.3 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 788 1,041 26,727 19,893 23,653 3.1 3.2 153.4 175.2 5.1 4.5 0.9 0.8 18.3 18.1 - -

South Ind.Bank Neutral 24 - 2,684 1,440 1,635 2.7 2.5 3.8 4.1 6.3 5.8 1.2 1.1 19.9 18.6 - -

St Bk of India Accumulate 2,095 2,469 140,614 68,311 79,649 3.6 3.6 230.4 273.4 9.1 7.7 1.5 1.3 18.2 18.8 - -

Syndicate Bank Buy 105 126 6,302 7,133 8,255 3.0 3.0 25.9 30.0 4.0 3.5 0.6 0.6 16.9 17.1 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 76 - 5,078 5,623 6,380 2.4 2.4 16.9 17.9 4.5 4.3 0.8 0.8 16.5 15.4 - -

Union Bank Buy 206 261 11,330 10,215 11,854 2.9 2.8 42.7 50.3 4.8 4.1 0.8 0.7 17.0 17.5 - -

United Bank Buy 60 78 2,161 3,551 4,128 2.7 2.8 18.8 22.6 3.2 2.7 0.5 0.4 15.5 16.5 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 57 - 2,802 2,668 3,001 2.2 2.2 10.6 12.2 5.3 4.6 0.7 0.7 13.3 13.8 - -

Yes Bank Buy 332 450 11,755 3,209 4,144 2.7 2.8 33.9 41.5 9.8 8.0 2.1 1.7 23.1 23.3 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 3,748 - 35,946 11,423 13,309 16.3 16.3 125.3 148.4 29.9 25.3 10.2 8.0 38.0 35.4 3.2 2.7Britannia Buy 525 633 6,274 5,835 6,824 6.3 6.7 20.7 27.5 25.4 19.1 9.9 7.4 42.7 44.3 1.0 0.9

Colgate Neutral 1,173 - 15,947 3,007 3,417 21.1 22.1 38.2 43.8 30.7 26.8 36.5 28.7 130.2 119.9 4.9 4.3

Dabur India Reduce 114 106 19,782 5,878 6,799 16.8 17.0 4.2 4.9 27.4 23.1 9.9 8.1 39.3 42.0 3.4 2.9

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,750 - 11,564 3,124 3,663 17.1 11.6 103.0 123.3 26.7 22.3 8.2 6.6 34.0 32.9 3.2 2.7

Godrej Consumer Neutral 568 - 19,320 5,973 7,000 18.4 18.6 22.8 27.2 24.9 20.9 6.8 5.5 31.3 38.4 3.3 2.8

HUL Neutral 450 - 97,367 25,350 29,309 14.3 14.4 14.1 16.4 31.9 27.5 23.9 18.6 82.7 76.2 3.7 3.2

ITC Neutral 251 - 196,594 29,638 34,159 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.9 26.9 23.1 8.7 7.1 35.3 33.8 6.4 5.5


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FMCG

Marico Neutral 182 - 11,739 4,667 5,427 12.8 12.9 6.6 8.1 27.4 22.4 7.3 5.8 30.0 28.8 2.4 2.0

Nestle* Neutral 4,495 - 43,343 8,731 10,539 21.0 21.4 119.3 147.9 37.7 30.4 23.1 15.7 73.0 61.6 5.0 4.0

Tata Global Buy 116 136 7,158 7,011 7,711 9.7 10.0 6.3 7.5 18.5 15.5 1.8 1.7 9.5 10.9 0.9 0.8

IT

HCL Tech Buy 461 560 31,970 22,792 25,743 17.4 17.4 37.8 43.0 12.2 10.7 2.7 2.3 22.3 21.3 1.4 1.2

Hexaware Neutral 127 - 3,762 1,821 2,105 19.0 18.6 9.8 10.7 12.9 11.9 3.0 2.6 23.7 22.5 1.8 1.5

Infosys Accumulate 2,473 2,792 141,990 37,615 42,491 31.1 30.6 158.5 174.5 15.6 14.2 3.5 3.0 22.5 20.8 3.1 2.6Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 162 177 1,805 1,758 1,972 17.0 16.6 16.8 18.6 9.6 8.7 1.3 1.2 13.6 13.2 0.6 0.5

KPIT Cummins Neutral 114 - 2,026 2,028 2,239 15.0 14.8 9.0 11.4 12.6 10.0 2.3 1.9 19.3 18.7 1.0 0.8

Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 78 86 9,120 7,097 7,812 16.2 16.0 7.5 8.0 10.3 9.7 1.4 1.2 13.2 12.3 0.9 0.7

Mindtree Accumulate 641 643 2,606 2,172 2,450 16.1 15.5 53.9 58.5 11.9 11.0 2.2 1.9 18.9 17.0 0.9 0.8

Mphasis Accumulate 364 373 7,637 5,608 5,964 17.7 17.3 35.5 36.8 10.2 9.9 1.4 1.3 13.9 12.6 0.8 0.7

NIIT Buy 41 52 682 1,162 1,304 14.8 15.1 7.1 8.8 5.8 4.7 1.0 0.9 16.7 18.4 0.4 0.3

Persistent Reduce 398 361 1,590 1,109 1,224 23.3 22.4 37.2 40.1 10.7 9.9 1.6 1.4 15.4 14.5 1.1 0.9

TCS Neutral 1,259 - 246,375 57,189 66,329 29.3 28.7 63.2 70.9 19.9 17.8 6.1 4.9 30.5 27.7 4.0 3.3

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 700 725 8,923 5,880 6,314 15.6 15.2 75.9 82.2 9.2 8.5 1.9 1.5 20.1 18.1 1.4 1.3

Wipro Accumulate 399 452 98,029 43,150 48,541 20.0 20.5 25.9 30.1 15.4 13.2 2.9 2.5 19.1 19.0 2.0 1.6

Media

D B Corp Buy 206 269 3,775 1,652 1,863 25.7 26.3 13.5 16.1 15.3 12.8 3.4 2.9 24.1 24.4 2.0 1.7

HT Media Buy 96 148 2,256 2,255 2,555 16.3 16.7 9.0 10.6 10.7 9.1 1.3 1.2 13.4 13.8 0.6 0.5

Jagran Prakashan Buy 87 137 2,744 1,499 1,642 27.4 28.8 7.6 9.1 11.4 9.6 3.8 3.4 34.6 37.7 1.8 1.6

PVR Neutral 149 - 387 625 732 17.4 16.9 12.4 15.8 12.0 9.5 1.9 2.0 8.5 9.9 0.8 0.7

Sun TV Network Neutral 298 - 11,744 2,135 2,458 75.2 74.4 20.9 24.0 14.3 12.4 3.3 2.8 26.0 25.1 4.1 3.3Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Reduce 460 436 9,767 9,232 13,557 30.8 31.1 48.0 58.6 9.6 7.9 1.2 1.1 14.5 7.5 3.2 2.2

Coal India Neutral 348 - 219,746 68,841 74,509 25.3 25.3 24.1 26.1 14.5 13.3 4.0 3.3 30.4 26.8 2.2 1.9

Electrosteel Castings Buy 17 22 586 1,984 2,074 11.2 12.6 2.0 2.7 8.3 6.3 0.3 0.1 4.2 5.5 0.5 0.4

Hind. Zinc Buy 118 139 49,838 13,043 14,223 51.8 52.8 14.8 16.6 8.0 7.1 1.6 1.3 21.2 19.9 2.2 1.6

Hindalco Neutral 115 - 22,075 83,463 91,313 9.0 9.9 13.7 18.1 8.4 6.4 0.6 0.6 7.9 9.6 0.5 0.5

JSW Steel Neutral 669 - 14,927 39,592 44,910 18.0 17.7 74.7 88.9 9.0 7.5 0.9 0.8 10.7 11.6 0.7 0.7

MOIL Accumulate 281 296 4,728 1,007 1,091 56.6 56.9 29.4 31.9 9.6 8.8 1.7 1.5 19.0 18.2 2.3 1.9

Monnet Ispat Buy 378 447 2,430 3,115 3,748 22.1 25.1 59.1 66.8 6.4 5.7 0.9 0.8 15.6 15.3 1.5 1.1


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Metals & Mining

Nalco Reduce 60 54 15,463 8,474 9,024 12.6 16.2 2.6 3.6 23.5 16.7 1.3 1.2 5.6 7.5 1.4 1.3

NMDC Accumulate 182 187 72,158 11,959 13,062 78.2 78.6 19.1 20.9 9.6 8.7 2.3 1.9 27.1 24.4 3.7 3.2

SAIL Neutral 88 - 36,493 50,914 60,785 14.6 15.1 9.4 10.5 9.4 8.4 0.8 0.8 9.2 9.6 1.2 1.1

Sesa Goa Neutral 186 - 16,131 9,067 9,316 35.7 35.5 44.5 44.3 4.2 4.2 0.9 0.8 23.5 19.5 0.4 0.1

Sterlite Inds Buy 98 123 32,884 45,805 49,029 21.2 23.5 16.5 19.1 5.9 5.1 0.7 0.6 11.5 12.0 0.3 0.2

Tata Steel Buy 428 499 41,607 143,088 148,011 10.9 12.1 53.9 66.0 8.0 6.5 0.9 0.8 12.2 13.4 0.6 0.6

Oil & GasCairn India Accumulate 328 372 62,482 15,513 16,074 74.0 69.7 51.1 48.6 6.4 6.8 1.1 0.9 18.3 14.8 2.9 2.1

GAIL Accumulate 346 389 43,858 50,472 55,502 15.3 15.6 35.4 37.0 9.8 9.3 1.7 1.5 19.0 17.2 0.1 -

ONGC Buy 278 321 237,672 156,331 159,043 37.7 36.3 31.3 32.6 8.9 8.5 1.6 1.4 18.7 17.3 1.2 1.1

Reliance Industries Buy 719 897 235,555 316,404 319,119 11.2 12.0 63.5 68.7 11.3 10.5 1.1 1.0 11.7 11.4 0.7 0.7

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 54 91 1,026 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 8.3 6.0 2.0 1.6 27.5 29.2 0.9 0.7

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 107 156 3,115 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 13.8 14.7 7.8 7.3 0.9 0.4 11.4 10.9 0.8 0.6

Aventis* Neutral 2,146 - 4,943 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.0 104.0 22.6 20.6 4.0 3.1 18.6 17.0 3.2 2.7

Cadila Healthcare Buy 765 953 15,661 6,196 7,443 18.5 19.5 43.3 50.8 17.7 15.1 4.6 3.6 25.4 24.8 2.5 2.0

Cipla Buy 308 379 24,702 7,687 8,804 21.4 21.4 16.5 18.9 18.7 16.3 2.9 2.5 16.7 16.8 3.2 2.7

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,611 - 27,338 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 19.3 17.3 4.0 3.4 22.4 21.0 2.6 2.4

Dishman Pharma Buy 65 92 523 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 7.0 5.7 0.5 0.5 7.7 8.5 1.1 0.9

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,001 - 16,951 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 26.3 24.3 7.6 6.6 30.8 29.0 5.5 4.8

Indoco Remedies Buy 55 82 502 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 7.4 6.1 1.1 0.9 15.9 16.3 0.9 0.7

Ipca labs Buy 351 435 4,427 2,850 3,474 20.3 20.3 26.6 32.7 13.2 10.7 3.4 2.7 28.2 27.9 1.7 1.4

Lupin Buy 533 647 23,822 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 29.7 32.4 18.0 16.5 4.7 3.7 27.0 25.2 2.7 2.2Orchid Chemicals Buy 116 178 815 2,117 2,434 17.7 17.7 16.7 22.2 6.9 5.2 0.6 0.6 9.5 11.5 1.0 0.8

Ranbaxy* Neutral 488 - 20,584 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 35.7 29.8 13.7 16.4 5.1 4.2 43.1 28.1 1.7 1.7

Sun Pharma Reduce 616 569 63,478 9,272 11,080 38.6 38.0 22.7 22.6 27.2 27.3 4.6 4.0 17.9 15.6 5.0 3.9

Power

CESC Buy 286 342 3,569 5,084 5,512 24.2 23.8 45.2 48.5 6.3 5.9 0.7 0.6 11.2 10.9 1.1 1.2

GIPCL Buy 63 77 959 1,557 1,573 28.8 28.5 10.4 10.9 6.1 5.8 0.6 0.6 10.4 10.2 1.1 0.9

NTPC Neutral 157 - 129,660 74,766 86,549 23.1 23.4 12.4 14.1 12.7 11.2 1.6 1.4 13.0 13.5 2.4 2.2

Real Estate

Anant Raj Buy 47 78 1,388 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 5.6 3.7 0.3 0.3 6.3 8.9 3.3 2.5

DLF Neutral 194 - 32,924 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 20.2 14.5 1.3 1.2 6.4 8.7 5.8 4.8


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Stock Watch


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Real Estate

HDIL Buy 85 115 3,564 2,441 3,344 53.0 46.7 21.4 25.4 4.0 3.4 0.3 0.3 8.4 9.1 3.2 2.4

MLIFE Buy 327 376 1,336 814 897 26.9 27.0 31.3 33.9 10.5 9.6 1.1 1.0 10.2 10.1 1.9 1.7

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 303 - 115,236 80,961 86,705 33.5 34.0 17.2 20.8 17.7 14.6 2.0 1.8 11.5 12.3 2.1 1.9

Idea Cellular Neutral 75 - 24,706 22,558 25,326 26.4 27.5 3.2 4.7 23.2 15.7 1.8 1.6 7.5 10.0 1.6 1.4

Rcom Neutral 62 - 12,776 22,288 23,871 32.1 32.7 4.4 6.0 14.0 10.3 0.3 0.3 2.4 3.2 2.0 1.7

zOthersBajaj Electricals Buy 198 246 1,973 3,569 4,172 8.6 9.2 17.3 22.3 11.5 8.9 2.5 2.1 22.9 25.3 0.5 0.5

Abbott India Accumulate 1,456 1,628 3,094 1,661 1,918 9.7 12.0 60.7 90.4 24.0 16.1 4.9 4.0 22.0 27.3 1.6 1.3

CRISIL Neutral 1,062 - 7,455 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 30.9 26.6 14.0 11.2 50.9 46.9 7.3 6.1

Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 271 288 343 385 444 17.2 17.4 28.9 32.0 9.4 8.5 2.0 1.6 23.4 21.1 1.0 0.9

Force Motors Buy 453 680 590 2,346 2,753 6.7 7.0 50.9 61.9 8.9 7.3 0.5 0.5 5.5 6.3 0.2 0.2

Finolex Cables Buy 41 61 621 2,334 2,687 8.8 9.3 7.6 10.2 5.3 4.0 0.7 0.6 13.7 16.1 0.2 0.1

Goodyear India Buy 313 374 723 1,511 1,692 7.9 9.0 31.5 41.3 10.0 7.6 2.0 1.6 21.2 23.5 0.3 0.2

Graphite India Buy 88 124 1,720 2,158 2,406 18.1 18.9 12.4 14.0 7.1 6.3 1.0 0.9 14.0 14.3 0.9 0.8

HEG Buy 205 242 820 1,746 1,946 16.5 17.7 22.5 32.9 9.1 6.2 0.9 0.9 10.4 14.2 1.1 1.0

Hitachi Buy 112 160 257 857 968 6.9 8.4 10.2 16.0 11.0 7.0 1.4 1.2 12.9 17.8 0.4 0.3

Honeywell Automation Neutral 2,650 - 2,343 1,542 1,739 9.4 10.0 116.1 140.8 22.8 18.8 3.2 2.8 15.5 15.9 1.3 1.2

INEOS ABS India Accumulate 703 777 1,236 900 1,011 10.2 11.5 35.6 45.7 19.8 15.4 2.9 2.5 15.4 17.2 1.2 1.0

ITD Cementation Accumulate 225 236 259 1,535 1,842 11.1 11.1 27.3 38.3 8.2 5.9 0.6 0.6 7.9 10.2 0.6 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Buy 234 268 1,884 1,315 1,568 8.6 11.1 6.4 10.9 36.6 21.5 3.1 2.9 8.4 13.9 1.7 1.4

MCX Buy 1,035 1,598 5,278 610 702 65.5 67.0 67.9 79.9 15.3 13.0 4.5 3.7 29.1 28.9 5.6 4.3

MRF Buy 9,882 13,106 4,191 12,390 14,400 10.4 11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2 7.4 6.0 1.5 1.2 16.5 17.4 0.5 0.5Greenply Industries Buy 189 309 456 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 6.4 4.3 1.0 0.9 16.8 21.0 0.5 0.4

Page Industries Neutral 2,876 - 3,208 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 30.3 23.8 15.8 12.8 57.4 59.5 3.6 2.9

Relaxo Footwears Neutral 506 - 607 1,019 1,208 11.0 10.8 44.9 53.1 11.3 9.5 2.7 2.1 27.2 25.0 0.7 0.6

Sintex Industries Buy 59 79 1,600 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.3 3.7 0.6 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 266 392 250 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 4.0 3.4 0.8 0.7 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4

SpiceJet Buy 33 40 1,581 5,647 6,513 3.5 6.5 1.9 4.9 16.8 6.7 39.5 5.7 - - 0.4 0.4

TVS Srichakra Buy 318 462 243 1,612 1,827 9.5 9.8 72.3 92.5 4.4 3.4 1.3 1.0 33.1 32.1 0.4 0.3

TAJ GVK Buy 62 108 386 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.8 6.8 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.6 1.3


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zOthers

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 346 420 532 700 806 18.2 18.2 55.6 65.1 6.2 5.3 0.8 0.7 14.2 14.8 0.3 0.2

United Spirits Accumulate 663 730 8,674 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 21.4 15.5 1.7 1.5 8.1 10.3 1.6 1.4

Vesuvius India Accumulate 366 413 743 628 716 16.4 16.5 29.8 34.4 12.3 10.6 2.1 1.8 18.8 18.6 1.0 0.9

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 28, 2012


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Stock Watch


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June 29, 2012Market Outlook

Market Outlook 290612

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Transcript of Market Outlook 290612