Market Outlook 15-10-12

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    Market OutlookOctober 15, 2012

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    Market OutlookOctober 15, 2012

    Dealers Diary

    The Indian markets are expected to open flat tracking mixed opening in the Asian

    markets as the markets held in tight ranges, with concerns about Europe keeping

    investors sidelined amid some mixed signals on the state of the Chinese economy.

    The US markets ended mostly lower over the course of the trading day on Friday.

    Selling pressure has remained subdued, however, contributing to choppy trading

    on Wall Street. The report from Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan

    showed that the preliminary reading on their consumer sentiment index for

    October came in at 83.1 compared to the final September reading of 78.3.

    Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged compared to the

    previous month.

    Meanwhile the Indian markets fell notably on Friday, dragged down by IT stocks

    after Infosys quarterly results which once again failed to impress the investors. The

    broader market recouped earlier losses after official data showed that India'sindustrial output grew by a higher-than-expected 2.7% in August from a year

    earlier on the back of a positive base effect. CPI inflation also eased marginally in

    September to 9.73% from 10.03% in the preceding month.

    Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 18,719 / 5,687 levels. If NIFTY trades above

    this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

    up to 18,800 18,925 / 5,714 5,752 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

    18,719 / 5,687 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

    18,594 18,513 / 5,621 5,649 levels.

    SENSEX 18,513 18,594 18,719 18,800 18,925

    NIFTY 5,621 5,649 5,687 5,714 5,752

    News Analysis August IIP growth surprises positively at 2.7% CPI inflation for September 2012 moderates to 9.73% JLR offers 7.5% salary hike for over 21,000 employees Vedanta Aluminum shuts refinery on bauxite shortage 2QFY2013 Result Review: HDFC Bank, Infosys 2QFY2013 Result Preview: RIL, Axis BankRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

    Net Inflows (October 11, 2012)

    FII 2,067 1,650 417 26,178 67,501

    MFs 441 607 (166) (4,423) (10,260)

    FII Derivatives (October 12, 2012)

    Index Futures 1,142 1,430 (288) 15,420

    Stock Futures 1,028 1,308 (280) 30,630

    Gainers / Losers

    India Cements 101 6.3 Infosys 2,396 (5.4)

    Wockhardt 1,418 5.0 Indiabulls Real Est 62 (3.9)

    Century Tex 390 4.3 Unitech 26 (3.3)

    ACC 1,498 4.0 Pantaloon Retail 191 (2.7)

    Dabur India 135 3.7 Gujarat State Pet 80 (2.6)

    BSE Sensex (0.7) (129.6) 18,675

    Nifty (0.6) (31.9) 5,676

    MID CAP 0.1 5.6 6,677

    SMALL CAP 0.0 2.1 7,110

    BSE HC 0.5 36.8 7,570

    BSE PSU (0.4) (31.3) 7,419

    BANKEX (0.4) (52.9) 13,087

    AUTO (0.7) (75.9) 10,275

    METAL (0.1) (6.9) 10,620

    OIL & GAS (0.3) (24.7) 8,543

    BSE IT (2.6) (152.3) 5,729

    Dow Jones 0.0 2.5 13,329NASDAQ (0.2) (5.3) 3,044

    FTSE (0.6) (36.4) 5,793

    Nikkei (0.2) (12.7) 8,534

    Hang Seng 0.7 137.4 21,136

    Straits Times 0.3 9.1 3,042

    Shanghai Com 0.1 2.1 2,105

    INFY (7.6) (3.7) $44.5

    WIT (1.0) (0.1) $8.6IBN (1.4) (0.5) $39.5

    HDB (0.7) (0.3) $37.5

    Advances 1,369 655

    Declines 1,517 843

    Unchanged 134 77

    BSE 2,743

    NSE 12,527

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    Market OutlookOctober 15, 2012

    August IIP growth surprises positively at 2.7%

    As per the Quick Estimates on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), industrial

    growth during August 2012 surprised positively with 2.7% yoy growth as compared

    to 0.2% decline in growth in July 2012 and 3.4% yoy growth in the corresponding

    period of the previous year. On a 3MMA basis, however, growth remained at alow level of 0.2% during the month.

    On a yoy basis, Mining reported growth of 2.0% on a low base after witnessing

    de-growth of 1.6% in the previous month and 5.5% decline in growth during

    August 2011. Manufacturing sector with the highest weightage of 75.5%, too,

    marked an improvement with 2.7% growth as compared to a contraction in the

    two preceding months thereby augmenting overall growth in industrial production

    for August 2012. Electricity sector disappointed with growth decelerating for the

    second consecutive month. It reported modest growth of 1.9% during the month

    vis-a-vis growth of 9.5% in August 2011.

    Due to the general slowdown in the economy, Capital goods continued to remain

    under stress witnessing de-growth of 1.7% following decline in growth by 4.5% in

    July 2012 and a steep 28.1% de-growth in June 2012. On a positive side

    however, the index for capital goods has witnessed some traction since April 2012.

    The consumer goods sector reported an improvement in overall growth by 5.0%

    during August 2012 as compared to nearly flat performance in the previous

    month. Consumer durables reported growth of 4.0% while Consumer non-

    durables reported 5.8% growth aided by a low base.

    In spite of the somewhat-positive industrial production numbers, overall the growth

    continues to remain bleak. On a fiscal year-to-date basis, the index has reportedtepid growth of 0.4% as compared to growth of 5.6% during April - August 2011.

    We believe that the recent reform measures taken by the government to boost

    business and investor sentiment are positive for growth outlook in the economy in

    the medium-term but a revival in the investment cycle in the near term is unlikely

    on account of high interest rate environment and deterioration in capex activity.

    CPI inflation for September 2012 moderates to 9.73%

    Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the month of September 2012 moderated

    to a six-month low at 9.73%, on a yoy basis, as compared to 10.03% in August

    2012. Inflation in rural areas stands at 9.79% during September 2012 as against

    9.9% in the month of August 2012. Inflation in urban areas moderated to 9.72%

    in the September 2012 as compared to 10.19% in August 2012.

    Inflation in the Food and Beverages category stayed elevated above the 10%

    mark at 11.62% for the Combined Index as compared to 11.67% for rural

    consumers and 11.52% for urban consumers. The Combined Index for Fuel and

    Light witnessed a deceleration to 7.29% in September as compared 7.55% in

    August. However, fuel inflation is likely to rise going ahead reflecting the pass-

    through impact of hike in fuel prices. Inflation in Housing as well as Clothing,

    Bedding and Footwear recorded an increase of 10.85% and 10.32% respectively

    for the month of September 2012. Inflation in the Miscellaneous Category

    comprising transport and communication, education, recreation etc stood at

    6.83% in September 2012 as compared to 6.8% in August 2012.

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    Market OutlookOctober 15, 2012

    JLR offers 7.5% salary hike for over 21,000 employees

    According to the media reports, Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR) has offered to hike

    salaries of over 21,000 employees by 7.5% effective next month, subject to

    ratification by the union members through a ballot that is likely to take place soon.

    While the first hike of 4.5% will be effective from November 1, the second increaseof 3% will be from November 1, 2013. The deal also involves making 2,400

    agency workers permanent employees from next month. We see this as a positive

    development for JLR as the salary hikes offered by the company are amongst the

    best in the UK and should be comfortably accepted by the union. This would

    secure the operations of the company in the near future which would enable JLR to

    continuously ramp-up in order to meet the surging demand for its products. At the

    current market price of `271, the stock is trading at 6.1x and 3.3x FY2014E

    earnings and EV/EBITDA, respectively.

    Vedanta Aluminum shuts refinery on bauxite shortage

    Sterlite Industries associate Vedanta Aluminium (VAL; 29.5% stake) has

    temporarily shut down its Alumina refinery at Langigarh in Odisha due to lack of

    bauxite to produce alumina. The company has not been allowed to mine bauxite

    from its mines. Also the other private miners in Odisha have shut down. This has

    led the company to take this decision. This was however in line with our

    expectations because the company had stated earlier that it was likely to shut down

    the refinery. Post the merger of Sesa Goa and Sterlite, VAL would be 95% owned

    by Sesa Sterlite- the merged entity.

    Result Review

    HDFC Bank (CMP:`630 / TP: - / Upside: -)

    For 2QFY2013, HDFC Bank reported a healthy 30.1% yoy growth in its net profit

    to`1,560cr, in-line with our as well as the streets estimates. Strong balance sheet

    growth and stable margins and asset quality were the key highlights of the result.

    HDFC Banks net advances growth was strong at 22.9% yoy, while deposit buildup

    was also healthy, growing by 18.8% yoy. Growth in current account (adjusted for

    one-offs) and saving account deposits was healthy at 16.4% and 14.7% yoy,

    respectively. The current account saving account (CASA) ratio of the bank stood at

    45.9% as of 2QFY2013.

    The share of retail to overall loan book increased from 52.4% in 1QFY2013 to

    53.2% for 2QFY2013, on back of lower wholesale lending (6.9% qoq compared

    to 10.1% qoq in retail loans). In spite of lower corporate lending, the banks

    margins declined by10bp qoq, primarily due to reduction in its base rate by 20bp

    to 9.8% (on June 30, 2012).

    The bank maintained its strong asset quality track record during 2QFY2013 aswell. Gross and net non performing assets (NPA) ratios remained stable at 0.9%

    and 0.2%, respectively. NPA provision coverage ratio remained at elevated levels

    at 81.9%, even without considering the floating provisions. Including floating

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    Market OutlookOctober 15, 2012

    provisions (70bp) and general provisions (40bp), the provisioning coverage stands

    strong at ~200% of the gross NPA book. Restructured advances for the bank

    remained stable at 0.3% of gross advances. The bank however made only`75cr

    of floating provisions in 2QFY2013 compared to `240cr of floating provisions

    during 2QFY2012.

    HDFC Bank is currently trading at one-year forward 3.6x FY2014 ABV, higher than

    its median of 3.4x (over FY2005-12). We believe the current valuations largely

    factor in the positives leaving limited upside in the stock, and

    FY2013E 21,696 4.4 6,725 28.7 149.7 1.8 20.7 21.6 4.1

    FY2014E 26,811 4.5 8,455 36.0 177.4 1.9 22.0 17.2 3.5

    Infosys (CMP:`2,396 / TP:`2,573 / Upside: 7%)

    Infosys reported its 2QFY2013 results which were decent on the revenue front but

    disappointed on the operating front. The dollar revenues grew by 2.6% qoq to

    US$1,797mn, almost in line with the expectations. A key positive thing was that the

    companys volumes grew at a modest pace by 3.8% qoq led by a 3.6% offshore

    volume growth and 4.4% onsite volume growth. In INR terms, revenue came in at

    `9,858cr, up 2.5% qoq. The company signed six large deals during the quarter.

    The companys EBITDA and EBIT margins declined by 151bp and 166bp qoq to

    29.1% and 26.3% respectively in 2QFY2013. Operating margins of the companywere impacted adversely because of higher subcontracting costs, warranty costs

    and one-time payout for promotion-based compensation increases. The company

    has announced wage hikes for its employee base - ie 6% for offshore employees

    and 2-3% for onsite employees. This will further pull down the operating margin of

    the company in addition to the negative impact of the INR appreciation trend

    being witnessed. On a full year basis, the company expects margins to go down by

    200bp for FY2013 from the earlier expectation of 50-100bp, due to wage hike

    announced by the company.

    Infosys has kept its FY2013 yearly guidance unchanged and expects revenue

    growth of at least 5% yoy to US$7.343bn; however in constant currency terms, theguidance has been scaled down from 6% earlier to 5.7% now, which clearly

    indicates challenging visibility in the business volumes and managements future

    expectation. This doesnt include the Lodestone acquisition, which we believe

    would add ~100bps of growth in FY2013. Also, US$ EPS guidance has been

    revised down slightly to at least US$2.97 from US$3.03, adjusting it for the

    currency exchange rate. Taking wage hike as well as INR appreciation into

    account, the company scaled down FY2013 INR EPS guidance to at least`160.6

    from at least `166.5 (at assumed currency rate for INR/USD of `55.0). Post

    1HFY2013 performance, the company requires a minimum 3.5% qoq growth rate

    in the next two quarters to achieve their FY2013 USD revenue growth guidance,

    which in the current scenario looks a bit stretched.

    In addition, Infosys, which has seen a slew of management changes in the last

    couple of years, said that its CFO V. Balakrishnan would give up his position from

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    Market OutlookOctober 15, 2012

    October 31, 2012 and will be replaced by VP-finance Rajiv Bansal. Balakrishnan

    will, however, continue to be on the company's board and will now look after BPO

    operations, Finacle and India operations. This is a cause of concern as it does not

    give out a good picture of the company which is not doing well since the past three

    quarters.

    At the current market price of`2,396, the stock is trading at 15.0x FY2013E and

    14.0x FY2014E EPS.

    FY2013E 39,174 29.5 9,094 159.2 24.1 15.0 3.6 9.9 2.9

    FY2014E 41,580 30.4 9,800 171.6 23.1 14.0 3.2 8.8 2.7

    Result Preview

    Reliance Industries (CMP:`819, TP: -, Upside : -)

    Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2013 results today.

    We expect the companys top line to increase 19.6% yoy to `93,934cr due to

    higher petrochemical prices during the quarter. However, we expect the companys

    operating margin to decline 474bp yoy to 7.8% mainly on account of decrease in

    production from KG D6 basin. The companys bottom-line is expected to decrease

    by 12.1% yoy to`5,013cr.

    FY2013E 362,700 7.9 18,251 61.5 10.3 13.3 1.3 8.6 0.7

    FY2014E 380,031 8.0 19,050 64.3 9.9 12.7 1.2 7.9 0.6

    (CMP:`1,120/ TP:`1,326/ Upside: 18.4%)

    Axis Bank is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the bank to

    report NII growth of 15.2% yoy to `2,313cr. Non-interest income is expected to

    increase by a healthy 11.6% yoy to `1,378cr. Pre-provision profit of the bank is

    expected to register a growth of 15.7% yoy. However, provisioning burden is

    expected to decline by 4.9% yoy, leading to net profit growth of 22.5% yoy to`1,128cr.

    The stock is currently trading at an attractive valuation of 1.5x FY2014E ABV, ie at

    more than 50% discount to HDFC Bank, despite similar earnings quality,

    profitability and growth expectations over FY2013-14.

    FY2013E 15,425 3.1 4,947 115.9 630.3 1.6 19.9 9.6 1.8

    FY2014E 18,500 3.2 5,871 137.5 736.4 1.6 20.1 8.0 1.5

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    Market OutlookOctober 15, 2012

    Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

    Net profit 1,117 920 21 1,154 (3)

    Net sales 92,938 78,569 18 91,875 1

    EBITDA 8,186 9,844 (17) 6,747 21

    EBITDA margin (%) 8.8 12.5 7.3

    Net profit 5,339 5,703 (6) 4,473 19

    Net sales 6,135 4,651 31.9 5,919 3.6

    EBITDA 1,218 795 53.2 1,301 (6.4)

    EBITDA margin (%) 19.8 17.1 22.0

    Net profit 785 497 57.8 854 (8.1)

    Economic and Political News

    BSNL, MTNL tell government to shell out`11,000cr to pay spectrum fee Gems and jewellery exports dip 14% to US$3.72bn in September Government needs to see competition while designing subsidies: CCI GSM operators lose 1.9mn subscribers in September

    Corporate News

    Infosys doubles investments in debt funds to`5,000cr Maruti gets 6000 pre-launch bookings for new Alto 800 RIL cuts capital investment in KG-D6 by over US$3bn

    Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Date Company

    October 15, 2012 Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, LMW

    October 16, 2012 Mindtree

    October 17, 2012 HCL Tech, CRISIL, Infotech Enterprises

    October 18, 2012 Hind. Zinc, Ambuja Cements, ACC, D B Corp, Persistent

    October 19, 2012TCS, ITC, Mundra Port, Adani Power, Petronet LNG, Exide Industries, Zee Entertainment, South Ind.Bank, Blue Star,NIIT, Alembic Pharma, Tata Sponge

    October 20, 2012 Bajaj Auto, UltraTech Cement, Indian Bank, Federal Bank, J K Lakshmi Cements, Force Motors

    October 21, 2012

    October 22, 2012 HDFC, Larsen & Toubro, Cairn India, Idea Cellular, Bank of Baroda, Syndicate Bank

    October 23, 2012 Hero Motocorp, Lupin, United Phosphorus

    October 24, 2012

    October 25, 2012 Adani Enterp., M&M, Kotak Mah. Bank, Asian Paints, Ipca labs, Bajaj Electrical

    October 26, 2012 NTPC, ICICI Bank, Punjab Natl.Bank, IDFC, Dabur India, United Bank, Hind. Const.

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Result Calendar

    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

    Last Reported Estimated

    October 15, 2012 IndiaMonthly Wholesale PricesYoY%

    % Change Sep 7.55 7.70

    China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Sep 1.90 1.90

    October 16, 2012 UK CPI (YoY) % Change Sep 2.50 2.20

    Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Sep 2.60 2.70

    US Industrial Production % Sep (1.16) 0.20

    US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Sep 0.60 0.50

    October 17, 2012 US Housing Starts Thousands Sep 750.00 770.00

    US Building permits Thousands Sep 801.00 810.00

    UK Jobless claims change % Change Sep (15.00) --

    October 18, 2012 US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Oct 13 339.00 365.00

    China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Sep 8.90 9.00

    China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q 7.60 7.40

    October 19, 2012 US Existing home sales Millions Sep 4.82 4.75

    October 23, 2012 Euro ZoneEuro-Zone ConsumerConfidence

    Value Oct A (25.90) --

    October 24, 2012 Germany PMI Services Value Oct A 49.70 --Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Oct A 47.40 --

    US New home sales Thousands Sep 373.00 380.00

    US FOMC rate decision % Oct 24 0.25 --

    October 25, 2012 UK GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q A (0.50) --

    October 26, 2012 US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 3Q A 1.30 1.70

    October 30, 2012 US Consumer ConfidenceS.A./

    1985=100Oct 70.30 --

    India RBI Repo rate % Oct 30 8.00 --

    India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Oct 30 4.50 --

    India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Oct 30 7.00 --

    October 31, 2012 Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Oct 9.00 --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

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    October 15, 2012

    Market Outlook

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    Market StrategyOctober 15, 2012

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    Macro watch

    Exhibit 1 :Q uarterly G D P trends

    3. 5

    5. 7

    9 .0

    7. 5

    8. 5

    7. 68. 2

    9. 2

    8. 0

    6. 76. 1

    5. 3 5. 5

    3. 0

    4. 0

    5. 0

    6. 0

    7. 0

    8. 0

    9. 0

    10.0

    4Q

    FY09

    1Q

    FY10

    2Q

    FY10

    3Q

    FY10

    4Q

    FY10

    1Q

    FY11

    2Q

    FY11

    3Q

    FY11

    4Q

    FY11

    1Q

    FY12

    2Q

    FY12

    3Q

    FY12

    4Q

    FY12

    1Q

    FY13

    (%)

    Source: CSO, Ang el Research

    Exhibit 2 :IIP trends

    2. 5

    (5.0)

    6. 0

    2 .7

    1. 0

    4. 3

    (2.8)

    (1.3)

    2. 5

    (1.8)

    (0.2)

    2. 7

    (6.0)

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2. 0

    4. 0

    6. 0

    8. 0

    Sep

    -11

    O

    ct-11

    Nov

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    Dec

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    Jan

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    Fe

    b-

    12

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    ar

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    Apr

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    M

    ay

    -12

    Jun

    -12

    Ju

    l-12

    Aug

    -12

    (%)

    Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

    Exhibit 3 :M onthly WPI inflation trends

    10.0 9. 9 9. 5

    7. 76. 9

    7. 4 7. 7 7. 5 7. 6 7. 66. 9

    7. 6

    0. 0

    2. 0

    4. 0

    6. 0

    8. 0

    10.0

    12.0

    Sep

    -11

    O

    ct-11

    Nov

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    Fe

    b-

    12

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    12

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    M

    ay

    -12

    Jun

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    Ju

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    -12

    (%)

    Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

    Exhibit 4 :M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    60.0

    Sep

    -11

    O

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    Nov

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    Dec

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    Fe

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    2

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    Apr

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    Jun

    -12

    Ju

    l-12

    Aug

    -12

    Sep

    -12

    M fg. PM I Services PM I

    Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 indicates expansion

    Exhibit 5 :Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

    (30.0)

    (15.0)

    0. 0

    15.0

    30.0

    45.0

    60.0

    Aug

    -11

    Sep

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    Nov

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    Ju

    l-12

    Exp orts yo y growth Im ports yo y growth( %)

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6 :Key policy rates

    8.00

    7.00

    4.50

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    Sep

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    O

    ct-11

    Nov

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    Sep

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    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Agri / Agri Chemical

    Rallis Neutral 145 - 2,813 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 20.7 17.9 4.4 3.7 22.6 22.5 2.0 1.7

    United Phosphorus Buy 124 170 5,709 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 8.3 7.3 1.2 1.1 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

    Auto & Auto Ancillary

    Amara Raja Batteries Neutral 217 - 3,714 2,844 3,275 15.4 15.6 15.9 18.8 13.7 11.6 3.5 2.8 28.9 26.9 1.2 1.1

    Apollo Tyres Accumulate 87 99 4,403 13,412 15,041 11.3 11.0 12.1 14.2 7.2 6.2 1.3 1.1 19.6 19.2 0.5 0.4

    Ashok Leyland Buy 24 30 6,346 14,920 16,850 9.0 9.3 2.2 2.8 11.0 8.7 2.0 1.8 13.3 15.6 0.5 0.5

    Automotive Axle# Neutral 384 - 581 993 1,140 11.6 11.5 36.9 43.0 10.4 8.9 2.1 1.8 21.2 21.3 0.7 0.5Bajaj Auto Neutral 1,744 - 50,454 21,285 23,927 18.2 18.3 108.5 121.3 16.1 14.4 6.7 5.4 46.1 41.3 2.1 1.8

    Bharat Forge Accumulate 296 351 6,895 7,004 7,985 16.2 16.4 20.3 25.1 14.6 11.8 2.7 2.3 20.0 20.9 1.2 1.0

    Bosch India* Neutral 8,774 - 27,550 8,793 10,294 17.4 18.5 348.3 435.8 25.2 20.1 4.9 4.0 19.4 20.1 2.8 2.3

    CEAT Buy 118 164 403 4,989 5,634 8.7 8.5 32.7 41.1 3.6 2.9 0.5 0.5 15.8 16.9 0.3 0.2

    Exide Industries Neutral 150 - 12,771 5,913 6,787 16.0 17.0 7.4 9.2 20.3 16.4 3.6 3.1 19.1 20.3 1.9 1.6

    FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,770 - 2,942 1,505 1,768 17.5 18.0 111.2 132.7 15.9 13.3 3.3 2.7 22.8 22.2 1.7 1.4

    Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,779 2,077 35,533 24,941 28,706 15.0 15.5 122.5 134.0 14.5 13.3 6.4 5.0 49.6 42.2 1.2 1.0

    JK Tyre Buy 112 135 458 7,517 8,329 6.1 6.3 26.2 38.5 4.3 2.9 0.5 0.5 13.4 17.2 0.3 0.3

    Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 854 944 52,459 37,434 42,860 11.6 11.5 50.4 56.3 17.0 15.2 3.6 3.0 22.6 21.5 1.2 1.0

    Maruti Neutral 1,372 - 39,636 41,796 49,350 7.6 8.6 66.6 92.6 20.6 14.8 2.4 2.1 12.0 14.8 0.7 0.6

    Motherson Sumi Neutral 149 - 8,777 24,285 27,317 6.7 7.2 8.1 10.6 18.6 14.1 3.9 3.2 22.9 24.7 0.5 0.5

    Subros Buy 29 34 175 1,230 1,378 8.8 8.6 4.5 5.7 6.5 5.1 0.6 0.6 9.8 11.8 0.4 0.3

    Tata Motors Buy 271 316 72,104 195,096 219,428 12.8 13.0 39.0 44.9 6.9 6.0 2.0 1.5 32.6 28.8 0.4 0.4

    TVS Motor Buy 42 49 1,983 7,611 8,443 7.9 7.9 4.7 5.4 8.9 7.7 1.5 1.3 17.9 18.1 0.2 0.2

    Capital Goods

    ABB* Sell 782 593 16,575 8,760 10,023 6.2 8.7 14.5 24.7 54.1 31.7 5.9 5.2 11.6 17.6 1.9 1.7BGR Energy Neutral 278 - 2,005 3,669 4,561 11.0 11.0 24.7 29.6 11.3 9.4 1.7 1.5 15.3 16.7 1.1 1.0

    BHEL Neutral 245 - 60,052 47,801 43,757 19.0 18.8 25.3 22.8 9.7 10.8 3.0 2.5 34.3 25.3 1.1 1.2

    Blue Star Neutral 212 - 1,906 3,047 3,328 5.4 6.9 12.5 16.2 17.0 13.1 4.1 3.4 26.1 28.2 0.6 0.5

    Crompton Greaves Accumulate 138 141 8,830 12,691 14,126 7.4 8.9 7.0 9.7 19.7 14.2 2.3 2.0 11.9 15.0 0.7 0.6

    Jyoti Structures Buy 48 54 393 2,622 2,744 10.7 10.5 9.6 12.2 5.0 3.9 0.5 0.5 10.8 12.3 0.4 0.3

    KEC International Accumulate 67 78 1,734 6,858 7,431 7.1 7.5 8.3 9.8 8.1 6.9 1.4 1.2 25.1 24.0 0.4 0.4

    LMW Neutral 2,005 - 2,258 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 14.0 12.1 2.3 2.1 17.4 18.4 0.5 0.4

    Thermax Neutral 565 - 6,736 5,514 5,559 8.9 10.2 26.9 30.3 21.0 18.7 3.6 3.2 18.4 18.2 1.1 1.0

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    October 15, 2012

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 15-10-12

    10/16

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Cement

    ACC Neutral 1,498 - 28,133 10,964 12,417 21.6 21.5 76.9 82.2 19.5 18.2 3.7 3.3 19.5 19.1 2.2 1.9

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 215 - 33,111 10,163 11,729 25.4 24.9 11.2 12.5 19.3 17.2 4.1 3.7 20.3 20.5 2.7 2.2

    India Cements Neutral 101 - 3,106 4,354 4,929 18.6 18.7 9.8 12.3 10.3 8.2 0.9 0.8 8.6 10.2 1.1 1.0

    J K Lakshmi Cements Neutral 114 - 1,395 1,964 2,278 19.5 20.4 16.3 17.9 7.0 6.4 1.0 0.9 14.7 14.6 0.9 1.2

    Madras Cements Neutral 185 - 4,402 3,608 3,928 27.6 27.0 15.7 18.3 11.8 10.1 1.9 1.6 16.9 17.0 1.9 1.6

    Shree Cements^ Neutral 4,001 - 13,938 5,630 6,187 29.6 27.9 222.5 259.3 18.0 15.4 4.1 3.3 25.3 23.8 1.9 1.5

    UltraTech Cement Neutral 2,045 - 56,048 20,913 23,530 21.3 22.7 93.2 1 10.5 21.9 18.5 3.7 3.2 18.4 18.7 2.5 2.3Construction

    Ashoka Buildcon Buy 230 304 1,211 2,034 2,315 22.4 22.4 27.1 31.7 8.5 7.3 1.0 0.9 13.1 13.4 1.8 2.1

    Consolidated Co Neutral 14 - 259 2,262 2,522 6.7 7.5 1.5 2.7 9.4 5.3 0.4 0.4 4.4 7.5 0.4 0.4

    Hind. Const. Neutral 18 - 1,104 4,239 4,522 9.9 11.2 (2.3) (1.0) (8.1) (18.9) 1.0 1.1 (11.4) (5.6) 1.2 1.2

    IRB Infra Accumulate 154 166 5,117 3,964 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.7 16.9 9.8 9.1 1.5 1.3 16.6 15.8 2.8 2.7

    ITNL Buy 188 232 3,651 6,840 7,767 26.4 26.1 24.4 30.3 7.7 6.2 1.2 1.0 16.0 16.2 2.7 2.9

    IVRCL Infra Accumulate 46 51 1,396 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 18.0 9.9 0.6 0.6 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.7

    Jaiprakash Asso. Accumulate 93 91 19,712 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.0 4.8 23.1 19.4 1.8 1.7 8.5 9.3 2.5 2.2

    Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,650 1,721 101,303 60,474 69,091 12.1 11.5 79.7 85.4 20.7 19.3 3.5 3.1 16.3 15.1 1.8 1.6

    Madhucon Proj Buy 37 56 270 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 7.9 7.8 0.4 0.4 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

    Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 51 - 1,312 5,804 6,513 8.0 8.6 3.0 3.5 16.8 14.6 0.5 0.5 3.2 3.6 0.6 0.7

    Patel Engg. Neutral 83 - 576 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 5.9 5.7 0.4 0.3 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.0

    Punj Lloyd Neutral 55 - 1,810 11,892 13,116 8.9 8.9 1.7 3.1 32.1 17.6 0.6 0.6 1.9 3.4 0.6 0.5

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 147 182 2,204 2,506 3,147 10.3 10.7 7.5 10.4 19.5 14.1 2.4 2.1 13.5 16.0 1.0 0.9

    Simplex Infra Buy 226 265 1,116 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.4 29.4 9.7 7.7 0.9 0.8 9.2 10.6 0.5 0.5

    FinancialsAllahabad Bank Reduce 140 131 7,015 6,944 7,884 3.0 3.1 35.5 37.0 4.0 3.8 0.6 0.6 17.2 15.7 - -

    Andhra Bank Reduce 109 97 6,122 4,929 5,633 3.1 3.1 23.7 24.5 4.6 4.5 0.8 0.7 16.6 15.3 - -

    Axis Bank Buy 1,120 1,326 46,435 15,425 18,500 3.1 3.2 115.9 137.5 9.7 8.2 1.8 1.5 19.9 20.1 - -

    Bank of Baroda Neutral 777 - 30,427 15,473 18,142 2.6 2.6 115.3 139.4 6.7 5.6 1.0 0.9 16.2 17.2 - -

    Bank of India Accumulate 302 330 17,302 12,573 14,971 2.3 2.4 58.2 68.0 5.2 4.4 0.9 0.7 15.9 16.3 - -

    Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 50 - 2,954 3,442 3,802 3.1 3.2 8.9 11.4 5.6 4.4 0.7 0.6 13.5 15.5 - -

    Canara Bank Neutral 428 - 18,949 10,905 12,783 2.1 2.2 74.9 85.1 5.7 5.0 0.9 0.8 15.1 15.3 - -

    Central Bank Neutral 76 - 5,587 7,095 8,102 2.5 2.7 15.6 21.0 4.9 3.6 0.8 0.7 12.2 14.7 - -

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    October 15, 2012

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 15-10-12

    11/16

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Financials

    Corporation Bank Accumulate 406 447 6,007 4,886 5,669 2.1 2.2 101.3 101.8 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.6 17.0 15.1 - -

    Dena Bank Neutral 107 - 3,728 3,147 3,495 2.8 2.9 24.8 24.4 4.3 4.4 0.7 0.7 18.7 15.9 - -

    Federal Bank Neutral 483 - 8,252 2,593 3,009 3.2 3.2 44.9 52.5 10.7 9.2 1.3 1.2 12.8 13.5 - -

    HDFC Neutral 740 - 113,955 7,340 8,805 3.5 3.5 31.5 37.8 23.5 19.6 4.7 4.2 34.8 32.2 - -

    HDFC Bank Neutral 630 - 148,881 21,753 26,811 4.4 4.5 28.7 35.9 22.0 17.6 4.2 3.6 20.7 21.9 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 1,045 1,245 120,168 22,304 26,855 2.9 3.0 68.6 82.0 15.3 12.7 1.8 1.7 14.2 15.6 - -

    IDBI Bank Neutral 99 - 12,695 7,761 9,484 1.9 2.2 17.1 22.9 5.8 4.3 0.7 0.6 11.9 14.4 - -Indian Bank Reduce 191 181 8,196 6,062 6,818 3.4 3.4 40.5 41.6 4.7 4.6 0.8 0.7 18.1 16.3 - -

    IOB Accumulate 80 87 6,340 7,343 8,391 2.5 2.5 16.0 21.3 5.0 3.7 0.6 0.5 11.3 13.6 - -

    J & K Bank Accumulate 1,134 1,021 5,497 2,600 2,850 3.6 3.5 192.3 188.0 5.9 6.0 1.1 1.0 21.0 17.7 - -

    LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 257 301 12,950 1,867 2,338 2.4 2.4 21.1 28.5 12.2 9.0 2.0 1.7 17.5 20.4 - -

    Oriental Bank Neutral 292 - 8,527 6,278 7,125 2.7 2.8 56.7 62.6 5.2 4.7 0.7 0.6 14.1 13.9 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Accumulate 821 941 27,852 19,934 22,705 3.3 3.3 147.8 166.2 5.6 4.9 1.0 0.8 17.7 17.3 - -

    South Ind.Bank Accumulate 23 25 3,112 1,535 1,760 2.9 2.8 3.5 3.9 6.6 6.0 1.1 1.0 19.5 17.1 - -

    St Bk of India Accumulate 2,251 2,353 151,025 63,806 73,435 3.5 3.6 225.7 258.4 10.0 8.7 1.7 1.4 17.7 17.8 - -

    Syndicate Bank Accumulate 115 117 6,934 6,722 7,719 2.9 3.0 24.3 27.2 4.8 4.2 0.8 0.7 17.0 16.8 - -

    UCO Bank Neutral 77 - 5,115 5,411 6,124 2.4 2.5 17.0 16.5 4.5 4.7 0.9 0.8 16.7 14.4 - -

    Union Bank Accumulate 203 226 11,184 9,924 11,647 2.8 2.9 38.6 46.3 5.3 4.4 0.9 0.7 15.4 16.3 - -

    United Bank Buy 68 78 2,448 3,572 4,041 2.8 2.9 17.2 22.1 3.9 3.1 0.6 0.5 14.2 16.2 - -

    Vijaya Bank Neutral 56 - 2,795 2,490 2,881 2.1 2.2 9.2 11.4 6.1 5.0 0.7 0.7 11.5 13.0 - -

    Yes Bank Buy 394 452 14,034 3,270 4,253 2.8 3.0 33.9 42.2 11.6 9.3 2.5 2.0 23.1 23.6 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 3,887 - 37,288 11,198 13,184 16.3 16.3 121.0 144.8 32.1 26.9 10.8 8.5 37.4 35.3 3.3 2.8Britannia Buy 494 584 5,901 5,835 6,824 5.7 6.0 20.7 25.4 23.9 19.5 9.4 7.2 43.1 41.9 0.9 0.7

    Colgate Neutral 1,224 - 16,648 3,018 3,429 20.9 22.2 35.7 42.3 34.3 28.9 31.7 23.6 101.0 93.5 5.3 4.6

    Dabur India Neutral 135 - 23,573 6,124 7,030 17.0 16.8 4.5 5.2 30.3 26.1 12.5 9.9 43.2 41.5 3.7 3.1

    GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 3,002 - 12,624 3,124 3,663 17.1 17.6 104.5 123.8 28.7 24.3 8.9 7.2 34.4 32.8 3.7 3.1

    Godrej Consumer Neutral 677 - 23,033 6,097 7,233 18.4 18.6 21.9 26.5 31.0 25.6 6.9 5.7 25.5 25.4 3.9 3.3

    HUL Neutral 574 - 124,040 25,350 28,974 13.9 13.9 14.3 16.5 40.3 34.8 24.0 18.4 70.9 59.8 4.4 3.8

    ITC Neutral 283 - 222,333 29,513 33,885 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.8 30.5 26.2 10.1 8.4 35.6 35.0 6.9 6.0

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    Market Outlook

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    October 15, 2012

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 15-10-12

    12/16

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    FMCG

    Marico Neutral 202 - 13,023 4,840 5,643 13.1 13.1 6.8 8.5 29.8 23.9 8.2 6.3 31.4 29.7 2.7 2.2

    Nestle* Neutral 4,675 - 45,072 8,610 10,174 20.9 21.2 114.8 139.8 40.7 33.4 24.6 17.1 71.2 60.3 5.0 4.1

    Tata Global Neutral 161 - 9,972 7,207 7,927 9.7 10.0 6.6 7.8 24.4 20.6 2.5 2.4 8.6 9.5 1.1 1.0

    IT

    HCL Tech^ Accumulate 580 632 40,264 24,569 27,002 18.8 17.6 41.4 45.1 14.0 12.9 3.2 2.7 22.8 21.1 1.6 1.4

    Hexaware* Accumulate 113 140 3,361 1,966 2,161 22.5 21.4 11.6 12.2 9.8 9.3 2.6 2.2 26.8 23.9 1.5 1.3

    Infosys Accumulate 2,396 2,687 137,566 39,383 41,380 31.7 31.9 163.2 173.4 14.7 13.8 3.5 3.0 23.9 22.0 3.1 2.8Infotech Enterprises Neutral 190 - 2,123 1,895 2,049 18.0 17.5 18.1 19.5 10.5 9.8 1.5 1.3 14.5 13.7 0.8 0.6

    KPIT Cummins Buy 121 142 2,157 2,191 2,364 16.1 16.5 11.3 13.0 10.7 9.3 2.4 1.9 21.8 20.0 1.0 0.8

    Mahindra Satyam Neutral 110 - 12,957 7,628 8,062 19.9 18.4 9.7 10.0 11.3 11.0 3.1 2.4 27.7 22.2 1.3 1.1

    Mindtree Buy 670 772 2,740 2,334 2,481 19.5 17.6 70.4 77.2 9.5 8.7 2.2 1.8 23.3 20.4 0.9 0.8

    Mphasis& Neutral 405 - 8,500 5,700 5,993 18.0 16.9 37.0 37.3 10.9 10.9 1.6 1.4 14.3 12.6 1.0 0.9

    NIIT Accumulate 35 36 570 1,034 1,146 9.9 11.0 5.2 6.4 6.6 5.4 0.9 0.8 12.8 14.3 0.3 0.2

    Persistent Reduce 427 398 1,707 1,207 1,278 26.2 24.3 42.4 44.3 10.1 9.7 1.7 1.5 17.1 15.5 1.1 0.9

    TCS Accumulate 1,298 1,405 254,077 61,611 67,507 29.3 29.1 69.0 74.0 18.8 17.6 6.1 5.0 32.4 28.6 3.9 3.5

    Tech Mahindra Accumulate 962 1,046 12,275 6,603 7,196 18.2 17.1 92.7 99.6 10.4 9.7 2.4 2.0 23.6 20.5 1.9 1.7

    Wipro Accumulate 352 421 86,576 43,800 48,332 19.5 19.3 25.6 28.1 13.8 12.5 2.6 2.3 18.9 17.9 1.8 1.5

    Media

    D B Corp Buy 217 236 3,982 1,604 1,786 22.3 23.8 11.2 13.7 19.5 15.9 3.7 3.2 20.3 21.4 2.2 2.0

    HT Media Buy 96 113 2,257 2,111 2,263 14.7 14.8 7.3 8.1 13.1 11.9 1.4 1.3 11.3 11.2 0.7 0.6

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 96 112 3,041 1,488 1,664 22.7 22.8 6.2 7.1 15.5 13.5 3.8 3.4 25.2 26.3 2.1 1.8

    PVR Neutral 211 - 549 625 732 17.4 17.1 13.3 15.6 15.9 13.5 1.7 1.5 13.2 13.8 1.2 1.0

    Sun TV Network Neutral 352 - 13,852 1,981 2,239 77.0 76.7 18.6 21.3 18.9 16.5 4.8 4.2 27.1 27.5 6.4 5.5Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Neutral 504 - 10,704 11,979 14,584 31.6 31.0 49.2 61.4 10.3 8.2 1.4 1.2 14.1 15.2 2.9 2.4

    Coal India Accumulate 359 385 227,010 69,808 75,550 27.4 27.4 26.0 28.3 13.8 12.7 4.0 3.2 32.5 28.1 2.3 2.0

    Electrosteel Castings Accumulate 22 23 777 1,984 2,074 11.2 12.6 2.5 2.9 9.1 7.8 0.4 0.2 5.1 5.7 0.5 0.5

    Hind. Zinc Accumulate 136 144 57,570 12,446 13,538 52.3 52.9 14.3 15.5 9.6 8.8 1.8 1.5 20.5 18.9 2.7 2.1

    Hindalco Neutral 118 - 22,554 84,855 92,446 8.7 9.3 13.2 16.2 8.9 7.3 0.7 0.6 7.8 8.9 0.7 0.6

    JSW Steel Neutral 767 - 17,105 38,740 41,459 17.3 17.0 79.9 89.4 9.6 8.6 1.0 0.9 10.4 10.6 0.9 0.8

    MOIL Accumulate 252 271 4,228 918 993 50.7 50.9 24.5 26.1 10.3 9.7 1.6 1.4 16.0 15.5 2.3 2.0

    Monnet Ispat Buy 301 379 1,937 2,511 3,303 23.8 26.0 46.3 57.3 6.5 5.3 0.7 0.7 12.4 13.7 1.7 1.2

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    October 15, 2012

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 15-10-12

    13/16

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Metals & Mining

    Nalco Reduce 50 48 12,886 7,401 7,841 16.7 19.2 3.4 4.1 14.6 12.2 1.1 1.0 7.4 8.4 1.3 1.2

    NMDC Accumulate 189 214 74,755 12,934 14,266 79.4 80.1 21.1 23.4 9.0 8.1 2.4 1.9 29.6 26.5 4.1 3.4

    SAIL Neutral 86 - 35,481 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 9.0 7.3 0.8 0.8 9.4 10.6 1.2 1.0

    Sesa Goa Neutral 174 - 15,105 7,704 8,034 33.6 34.6 42.0 43.1 4.1 4.0 0.8 0.7 22.3 19.2 2.2 2.1

    Sterlite Inds Neutral 103 - 34,564 41,680 45,382 24.2 23.2 16.3 16.9 6.3 6.1 0.7 0.6 11.3 10.7 0.8 0.7

    Tata Steel Buy 421 481 40,844 145,799 150,431 10.3 11.2 48.6 63.3 8.7 6.6 0.9 0.8 10.5 12.4 0.5 0.5

    Sarda Accumulate 132 148 471 1,251 1,321 22.7 23.4 33.0 37.1 4.0 3.5 0.6 0.5 15.1 14.8 0.8 0.7Prakash Industries Buy 53 73 718 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 16.4 20.8 3.2 2.6 0.3 0.3 11.4 12.8 0.5 0.4

    Godawari Power andIspat

    Buy 121 161 385 2,341 2,425 15.6 17.3 33.3 43.2 3.6 2.8 0.4 0.4 13.2 14.4 0.5 0.5

    Oil & Gas

    Cairn India Accumulate 327 380 62,463 16,605 17,258 75.4 71.7 57.0 54.9 5.7 6.0 1.1 0.9 20.2 16.3 2.8 2.2

    GAIL Neutral 379 - 48,120 50,176 55,815 15.5 15.8 35.4 36.5 10.7 10.4 1.9 1.7 18.9 17.0 0.7 0.5

    ONGC Accumulate 277 312 237,244 147,139 154,821 33.9 33.7 30.7 32.3 9.0 8.6 1.6 1.4 18.3 17.2 1.4 1.2

    Reliance Industries Neutral 819 - 268,153 362,700 380,031 7.9 8.0 61.5 64.3 13.3 12.8 1.3 1.2 10.3 9.9 0.7 0.7

    Gujarat Gas* Neutral 299 - 3,837 3,228 3,819 11.5 11.3 19.2 22.1 15.6 13.5 4.1 3.7 28.7 29.0 1.3 1.0

    Indraprastha Gas Neutral 260 - 3,641 3,040 3,135 24.3 26.7 24.8 27.9 10.5 9.3 2.4 2.0 25.5 23.6 1.3 1.1

    Petronet LNG Accumulate 163 176 12,225 29,145 33,736 6.6 6.6 14.2 16.0 11.5 10.2 2.8 2.3 26.9 24.4 0.4 0.4

    Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

    Neutral 80 - 4,493 1,041 939 91.8 91.9 8.5 7.4 9.4 10.8 1.6 1.4 18.1 14.0 5.2 5.8

    Pharmaceuticals

    Alembic Pharma Buy 70 91 1,310 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 10.5 7.6 2.6 2.0 27.9 29.9 1.0 0.8

    Aurobindo Pharma Accumulate 160 156 4,649 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 11.8 12.6 13.5 12.7 1.7 1.4 17.9 16.4 1.3 1.1

    Aventis* Neutral 2,242 - 5,163 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.1 104.4 23.6 21.5 4.2 3.3 18.6 17.0 3.5 3.0Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 842 953 17,233 6,148 7,386 18.6 19.6 36.0 46.1 23.4 18.3 5.5 4.4 25.8 26.8 3.1 2.6

    Cipla Neutral 364 - 29,214 8,031 9,130 23.4 22.4 18.4 20.0 19.8 18.2 3.3 2.8 17.8 16.6 3.6 3.1

    Dr Reddy's Accumulate 1,688 1,859 28,648 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 20.2 18.2 4.1 3.5 22.4 20.8 2.9 2.6

    Dishman Pharma Neutral 97 - 782 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 10.5 8.6 0.8 0.7 7.7 8.5 1.3 1.1

    GSK Pharma* Neutral 1,963 - 16,631 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 25.8 23.8 7.5 6.7 20.1 26.3 5.5 4.8

    Indoco Remedies Buy 67 92 618 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 9.1 7.5 1.4 1.2 16.4 17.0 1.1 0.9

    Ipca labs Neutral 455 - 5,739 2,850 3,474 20.7 20.7 29.2 36.6 15.6 12.4 3.7 2.9 26.1 26.1 2.3 1.9

    Lupin Accumulate 566 647 25,318 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.3 31.3 21.5 18.1 5.0 4.0 26.0 24.7 3.2 2.6

    Orchid Chemicals Neutral 113 - 797 1,667 1,835 13.9 13.9 11.4 13.3 9.9 8.5 0.6 0.6 6.6 7.3 0.9 0.8

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Pharmaceuticals

    Ranbaxy* Neutral 539 - 22,779 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 31.3 29.8 17.2 18.1 5.9 4.7 39.1 28.9 1.9 1.8

    Sun Pharma Neutral 715 - 73,909 9,752 12,134 41.6 41.6 26.0 28.2 27.5 25.4 5.2 4.4 20.3 18.8 6.6 5.1

    Power

    CESC Neutral 328 - 4,100 5,218 5,644 24.2 23.8 44.6 47.6 7.4 6.9 0.8 0.7 11.0 10.6 1.6 1.6

    GIPCL Accumulate 69 77 1,038 1,557 1,573 29.3 28.7 10.8 11.0 6.4 6.2 0.7 0.6 10.8 10.2 1.2 1.0

    NTPC Neutral 169 - 139,101 74,111 85,789 22.7 23.1 12.1 13.7 14.0 12.3 1.7 1.6 12.6 13.2 2.5 2.3

    Real EstateAnant Raj Accumulate 82 78 2,414 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 9.7 6.4 0.6 0.6 6.3 8.9 4.5 3.4

    DLF Neutral 219 - 37,182 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 22.9 16.3 1.5 1.4 6.4 8.7 6.5 5.4

    HDIL Buy 105 115 4,391 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 4.6 3.9 0.4 0.4 8.8 9.4 3.5 2.7

    MLIFE Neutral 409 - 1,668 813 901 26.2 26.6 32.0 37.1 12.8 11.0 1.3 1.2 10.4 11.0 2.3 2.0

    Telecom

    Bharti Airtel Neutral 260 - 98,850 79,147 86,745 31.1 32.5 9.9 15.1 26.2 17.3 1.8 1.7 7.0 9.7 2.0 1.7

    Idea Cellular Neutral 80 - 26,470 22,582 24,684 26.4 26.9 3.3 4.7 24.1 16.9 1.9 1.7 7.8 9.9 1.7 1.5

    Rcom Neutral 63 - 12,931 20,650 20,935 32.3 33.0 4.2 5.8 14.8 10.9 0.4 0.3 2.3 3.1 2.3 2.1

    zOthers

    Abbott India Neutral 1,516 - 3,221 1,602 1,833 10.4 11.8 54.7 71.7 27.7 21.1 5.2 4.5 20.0 22.7 1.9 1.6

    Bajaj Electricals Buy 224 228 2,233 3,670 4,290 7.6 8.8 15.0 23.0 14.9 9.7 2.7 2.2 18.6 22.4 0.5 0.5

    Cera Sanitaryware Buy 374 388 473 396 470 16.7 16.6 31.0 35.0 12.1 10.7 2.7 2.2 24.8 23.0 1.1 1.0

    Cravatex Buy 458 682 118 289 340 5.2 5.9 41.0 57.0 11.2 8.0 2.8 2.1 25.2 26.5 0.5 0.4

    CRISIL Neutral 943 - 6,616 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 27.5 23.6 12.4 9.9 50.9 46.9 6.5 5.4

    Finolex Cables Buy 44 61 671 2,334 2,687 6.2 6.5 8.0 10.0 5.5 4.4 0.7 0.7 13.0 14.9 0.2 0.2

    Force Motors Buy 425 591 554 2,214 2,765 4.5 5.4 39.0 74.0 10.9 5.8 0.5 0.4 4.4 7.6 0.1 0.1Goodyear India Neutral 318 - 733 1,543 1,654 6.5 7.3 24.8 31.1 12.8 10.2 2.1 1.8 17.1 19.0 0.3 0.2

    Disa India Buy 2,923 3,353 441 176 203 22.7 22.6 182.5 209.6 16.0 13.9 8.3 6.6 51.8 47.1 2.2 1.8

    Greenply Industries Buy 235 309 566 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 7.9 5.3 1.3 1.1 16.8 21.0 0.5 0.4

    Hitachi Neutral 135 - 310 868 977 3.9 6.6 2.7 10.9 49.2 12.4 1.8 1.6 3.7 13.6 0.4 0.4

    Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,668 - 2,359 1,847 2,162 4.3 7.3 69.0 135.0 38.7 19.8 3.5 3.0 9.3 16.3 1.3 1.1

    Styrolution ABS India* Buy 649 744 1,142 1,056 1,081 8.1 10.6 34.0 47.0 19.1 13.8 2.7 2.3 14.7 17.5 1.1 1.0

    ITD Cementation Neutral 236 - 271 1,451 1,669 12.3 12.4 32.4 41.5 7.3 5.7 0.7 0.6 9.4 10.9 0.6 0.6

    Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 157 - 2,527 1,248 1,468 9.8 10.4 5.9 7.2 26.4 21.9 3.8 3.5 15.0 16.6 2.5 2.0

    MCX Accumulate 1,401 1,440 7,143 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 22.4 19.5 6.2 5.3 27.5 27.4 8.9 7.4

    MRF Buy 10,241 12,884 4,343 11,804 12,727 10.4 10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3 7.9 7.2 1.5 1.3 21.3 19.4 0.5 0.5

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    zOthers

    Page Industries Neutral 3,465 - 3,865 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 36.5 28.7 19.0 15.5 57.4 59.5 4.0 3.2

    Relaxo Footwears Accumulate 742 821 891 1,019 1,208 12.3 13.0 51.0 68.4 14.6 10.9 3.8 2.9 30.3 30.2 1.0 0.8

    Sintex Industries Buy 74 79 2,013 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 5.4 4.7 0.7 0.6 12.9 13.2 0.8 0.6

    Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 299 392 281 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 4.5 3.8 0.9 0.7 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4

    S. Kumars Nationwide Buy 19 24 558 7,134 7,985 19.7 19.4 12.2 14.1 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.1 11.3 11.5 0.6 0.6

    SpiceJet Buy 36 43 1,756 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 10.1 6.8 14.6 4.6 - - 0.4 0.4

    TAJ GVK Buy 74 108 465 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 9.4 8.2 1.2 1.1 13.9 14.4 1.8 1.5Tata Sponge Iron Buy 327 377 503 787 837 16.2 17.5 58.5 66.9 5.6 4.9 0.8 0.7 14.9 15.1 0.3 0.2

    TVS Srichakra Accumulate 310 335 237 1,476 1,643 7.0 8.2 32.6 55.9 9.5 5.6 1.5 1.3 16.8 24.8 0.4 0.3

    United Spirits Neutral 1,237 - 16,177 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 39.9 28.8 3.1 2.8 8.1 10.3 2.2 2.0

    Vesuvius India Neutral 363 - 738 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 14.7 12.6 2.2 1.9 15.8 16.2 1.1 1.0

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on October 12, 2012

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    Market OutlookOctober 15, 2012