Market Outlook 10.10.12

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Market OutlookOctober 10, 2012

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers Diary

The Indian markets are expected to open in the red today, tracking a weak

opening of the SGX Nifty, which is down by 0.4% in early trade. Most of the Asian

markets are trading in the negative zone.

The US markets moved sharply lower on Tuesday, weighed down by concerns

about the outlook for the global economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF)

in its world economic outlook has lowered its global growth forecast for 2012 to

3.3% from 3.5% earlier, while its 2013 forecast was also reduced by 0.3

percentage points to 3.6%. IMFs lowering of global growth forecast, along with

warning that the risks for a serious global slowdown are alarmingly high added to

the investor concerns. The markets also kept an eye on Europe, where finance

ministers of the region held a second day of meetings after formally launching the

European Stability Mechanism on Monday.

Meanwhile key benchmark indices ended higher on Tuesday after closing lower fortwo consecutive trading sessions. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on

Tuesday said India's recent steps to further open its market to foreign investors will

help provide a foundation for India's strong economic growth. Going ahead, the

market would keenly observe the 2QFY2013 earnings season starting off this

week.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 18,800 / 5,704 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 18,879 18,964 / 5,730 5,754 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

18,800 / 5,704 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

18,715 18,637 / 5,679 5,653 levels.

SENSEX 18,637 18,715 18,800 18,879 18,964

NIFTY 5,653 5,679 5,704 5,730 5,754

News Analysis IMF revises its global growth forecast downwards

Shome Committee recommendations to boost investor-confidence

Government reduces duty drawback rates on exports

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (October 08, 2012)

FII 3,317 2,380 936 26,245 69,763

MFs 351 813 (463) (4,159) (10,727)

FII Derivatives (October 09, 2012)

Index Futures 1,021 1,028 (7) 16,453

Stock Futures 1,138 1,225 (87) 29,882

Gainers / Losers

United Spirits 1,261 6.7 Idea Cellular 82 (3.2)

Rajesh Exports 125 5.5 Gail India 381 (2.8)

JSW Energy 64 4.8 Motherson Sumi 159 (2.7)

Biocon 282 4.6 Adani Enter 221 (2.6)

Aurobindo Phar 150 4.4 Apollo Hosp 773 (2.6)

BSE Sensex 0.4 84.0 18,793

Nifty 0.5 29.0 5,705

MID CAP 0.5 30.6 6,680

SMALL CAP 0.3 22.9 7,157

BSE HC 1.1 85.7 7,602

BSE PSU 0.1 6.8 7,453

BANKEX 0.7 92.0 13,143

AUTO (0.0) (4.5) 10,356

METAL 0.5 50.9 10,550

OIL & GAS (0.4) (38.6) 8,568

BSE IT 1.1 64.2 5,892

Dow Jones (0.2) (26.5) 13,584NASDAQ (0.8) (23.8) 3,112

FTSE (0.2) (12.2) 5,830

Nikkei (1.1) (93.7) 8,770

Hang Seng 0.5 112.7 20,937

Straits Times (0.4) (10.7) 3,066

Shanghai Com 2.0 40.8 2,115

INFY (0.9) (0.4) $47.5

WIT (2.1) (0.2) $8.7IBN (0.9) (0.4) $40.3

HDB (0.7) (0.3) $38.1

Advances 1,534 807

Declines 1,343 648

Unchanged 131 78

BSE 2,351

NSE 11,017

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IMF revises its global growth forecast downwards

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

revised global growth downwards to 3.3% for CY2012 and 3.6% for CY2013 due

to signs of weakness in recovery of growth. The IMF highlighted that downside

risks to growth emanating from advanced economies due to fiscal imbalances andweak banking system are adversely impacting growth in emerging and developing

markets. At the same time it also emphasized that effective policy response by

advanced economies by avoiding tail-risk scenarios is likely to improve growth

prospects and abate risks to growth.

The IMF revised its growth forecasts for advanced economies to 1.3% in CY2012

and 1.5% in CY2013. For emerging markets and developing economies it revised

the growth forecast to 5.3% in CY2012 and 5.6% in CY2013. It slashed Indias

growth forecast, for CY2012, sharply to 4.9% vis--vis its forecast of 6.2% in the

month of July citing adverse impact of factors such as slow approvals for new

projects, sluggish structural reforms, high policy rates and slowing externaldemand.

Shome Committee recommendations to boost investor-confidence

The Parthasarathi Shome Committee constituted to undertake stakeholder

consultations and finalize the guidelines for General Anti Avoidance Rules (GAAR)

has recommended that an amendment to the income-tax law seeking to tax

indirect transfers of Indian assets should apply prospectively and only on those

who make capital gains. Even in rarest of rare cases where retrospective taxes

are applied it recommends exhaustive and transparent consultation with

stakeholders and waiver on interest levies or penalties. It also recommends the

exclusion of FIIs, listed companies P-notes and stock market transactions from the

ambit of the retrospective amendment.

This development is expected to come as a major relief for investors and thereby

abate tax uncertainty and boost investor confidence in the economy. The draft

report has been put up for public discussion and comments until October 19,

2012. The government having unleashed a slew of reforms to boost investor and

business sentiment is likely to broadly accept the recommendations and thus we

expect it to be sentiment positive for markets.

Government reduces duty drawback rates on exports

In a notification, the Ministry of Finance has reduced duty drawback rates on

exports. As per the notification, duty drawback rates on motorcycles, three-

wheelers and medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCV) have been reduced

to 2% from 5.5% previously. In light commercial vehicles, duty drawback rates

have been reduced to 2% from 4% earlier, while the rates have been largely

unchanged for the passenger cars segment at 3%. For the auto ancillary

companies, rates have been reduced from 3-5% to around 2.5-4%. These new

rates will be effective from 10 October, 2012.

Within our coverage universe, Bajaj Auto, Ashok Leyland, TVS Motor and BharatForge are amongst the largest exporters and derive 12-47% of their revenues from

exports. As such, we believe these companies will be the most affected by the cut in

the duty drawback rates. However, most of the companies have announced that

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they will increase the prices in the export markets which will likely offset the

negative impact of duty cut. Nonetheless, given the current macro economic

conditions we believe that it will be challenging for the companies to pass on the

price increases completely. In the event of no pricing action, the export revenues of

the companies will be impacted negatively which will pressurize operating margins

as well as the bottom-line (FY2014 earnings expected to decline by 2-7% for thesecompanies).

Exports revenue as a percentage of sales

Ashok Leyland 9.7 11.6

Bajaj Auto 27.1 33.0

TVS Motor 13.6 15.5

Bharat Forge (standalone) 41.1 47.0

Source: Company, Angel Research

Bloomberg consensus

Net profit 244 193 26 236 3

Net profit 1,507 1,565 (4) 1,417 6

Net sales 9,898 8,099 22 9,616 3

Net profit 2,378 1,906 25 2,289 4

Economic and Political News

CAG, government not adversaries, says Finance Minister

Panel seeks Attorney Generals opinion on 2G spectrum fees

National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority issues notice to drug firms

Corporate News

R-Power raises US$302mn via ECB for solar projects

Ranbaxy launches Evoxac generic in US

IPO of RINL issue deferred again

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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Date Company

October 10, 2012 IndusInd Bank

October 11, 2012

October 12, 2012 Infosys, HDFC Bank

October 13, 2012

October 14, 2012

October 15, 2012 Reliance Industries, HT Media, LMW

October 16, 2012

October 17, 2012 HCL Tech, CRISIL

October 18, 2012 Ambuja Cements, ACC, Persistent

October 19, 2012 Mundra Port, Adani Power, Exide Industries, Zee Entertainment

October 20, 2012 M&M, Bajaj Auto, UltraTech Cement, Federal Bank

October 21, 2012

October 22, 2012 HDFC, Cairn India

October 23, 2012 Hero Motocorp

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

Oct 11 2012 12:00AM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Oct 6 367.00 370.00

Oct 12 2012 12:00AM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Sep 1.70 0.80

India Industrial Production YoY % Change Aug 0.10 1.10

Oct 13 2012 12:00AM China Exports YoY% % Change Sep 2.70 5.80

Oct 15 2012 12:00AM IndiaMonthly Wholesale PricesYoY%

% Change Sep 7.55 7.70

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Sep 2.00 1.90

Oct 16 2012 12:00AM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Sep 2.50 --

Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Sep 2.60 --

US Industrial Production % Sep (1.16) 0.20

US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Sep 0.60 0.50

Oct 17 2012 12:00AM US Housing Starts Thousands Sep 750.00 770.00

US Building permits Thousands Sep 801.00 810.00

UK Jobless claims change % Change Sep (15.00) --

Oct 18 2012 12:00AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Sep 8.90 9.00China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q 7.60 7.40

Oct 19 2012 12:00AM US Existing home sales Millions Sep 4.82 4.75

Oct 23 2012 12:00AM Euro ZoneEuro-Zone ConsumerConfidence

Value Oct A (25.90) --



October 10, 2012

Market Outlook

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Market StrategyOctober 10, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit 1 :Q uarterly G D P trends

3. 5

5. 7

9 .0

7. 5

8. 5

7. 68. 2

9. 2

8. 0

6. 76. 1

5. 3 5. 5

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

7. 0

8. 0

9. 0

10.0

4Q

FY09

1Q

FY10

2Q

FY10

3Q

FY10

4Q

FY10

1Q

FY11

2Q

FY11

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

1Q

FY13

(%)

Source: CSO, Ang el Research

Exhibit 2 :IIP trends

3. 42. 5

(5.0)

6 .0

2. 7

1. 0

4 .3

(2.8)(1.3)

2 .5

(1.8)

0. 1

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 3 :M onthly WPI inflation trends

10.0 9. 9 9. 5

7. 76. 9

7. 4 7. 7 7. 5 7. 6 7. 66. 9

7. 6

0. 0

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

12.0

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 4 :M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

M fg. PM I Services PM I

Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5 :Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

(30.0)

(15.0)

0. 0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar-

12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Exp orts yo y growth Im ports yo y growth( %)


Exhibit 6 :Key policy rates

8.00

7.00

4.50

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)

Source: RBI, Angel Research

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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 149 - 2,901 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 21.3 18.4 4.5 3.9 22.6 22.5 2.0 1.7

United Phosphorus Buy 131 170 6,041 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 8.7 7.7 1.3 1.1 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Neutral 223 - 3,810 2,844 3,275 15.4 15.6 15.9 18.8 14.0 11.9 3.6 2.9 28.9 26.9 1.2 1.1

Apollo Tyres Accumulate 86 99 4,330 13,412 15,041 11.3 11.0 12.1 14.2 7.1 6.1 1.3 1.1 19.6 19.2 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 24 30 6,399 14,920 16,850 9.0 9.3 2.2 2.8 11.0 8.8 2.0 1.8 13.3 15.6 0.5 0.5

Automotive Axle# Neutral 386 - 582 993 1,140 11.6 11.5 36.9 43.0 10.4 9.0 2.1 1.8 21.2 21.3 0.7 0.5Bajaj Auto Neutral 1,745 - 50,505 21,285 23,927 18.2 18.3 108.5 121.3 16.1 14.4 6.7 5.4 46.1 41.3 2.1 1.8

Bharat Forge Accumulate 306 351 7,115 7,004 7,985 16.2 16.4 20.3 25.1 15.0 12.2 2.8 2.4 20.0 20.9 1.2 1.0

Bosch India* Neutral 8,693 - 27,296 8,793 10,294 17.4 18.5 348.3 435.8 25.0 20.0 4.8 4.0 19.4 20.1 2.8 2.3

CEAT Buy 114 164 389 4,989 5,634 8.7 8.5 32.7 41.1 3.5 2.8 0.5 0.4 15.8 16.9 0.3 0.2

Exide Industries Neutral 151 - 12,805 5,913 6,787 16.0 17.0 7.4 9.2 20.4 16.4 3.7 3.1 19.1 20.3 1.9 1.6

FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,751 - 2,910 1,505 1,768 17.5 18.0 111.2 132.7 15.7 13.2 3.3 2.7 22.8 22.2 1.7 1.4

Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,804 2,077 36,025 24,941 28,706 15.0 15.5 122.5 134.0 14.7 13.5 6.5 5.1 49.6 42.2 1.2 1.0

JK Tyre Buy 109 135 448 7,517 8,329 6.1 6.3 26.2 38.5 4.2 2.8 0.5 0.5 13.4 17.2 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 868 944 53,275 37,434 42,860 11.6 11.5 50.4 56.3 17.2 15.4 3.6 3.1 22.6 21.5 1.2 1.0

Maruti Neutral 1,392 - 40,203 41,796 49,350 7.6 8.6 66.6 92.6 20.9 15.0 2.4 2.1 12.0 14.8 0.7 0.6

Motherson Sumi Neutral 159 - 9,362 24,285 27,317 6.7 7.2 8.1 10.6 19.8 15.1 4.2 3.4 22.9 24.7 0.5 0.5

Subros Buy 30 34 178 1,230 1,378 8.8 8.6 4.5 5.7 6.6 5.2 0.6 0.6 9.8 11.8 0.4 0.3

Tata Motors Buy 270 316 71,878 195,096 219,428 12.8 13.0 39.0 44.9 6.9 6.0 2.0 1.5 32.6 28.8 0.4 0.4

TVS Motor Buy 43 49 2,045 7,611 8,443 7.9 7.9 4.7 5.4 9.2 8.0 1.5 1.4 17.9 18.1 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 771 593 16,344 8,760 10,023 6.2 8.7 14.5 24.7 53.4 31.2 5.9 5.1 11.6 17.6 1.9 1.7BGR Energy Neutral 287 - 2,071 3,669 4,561 11.0 11.0 24.7 29.6 11.6 9.7 1.7 1.6 15.3 16.7 1.1 1.0

BHEL Neutral 250 - 61,251 47,801 43,757 19.0 18.8 25.3 22.8 9.9 11.0 3.0 2.6 34.3 25.3 1.1 1.2

Blue Star Neutral 213 - 1,918 3,047 3,328 5.4 6.9 12.5 16.2 17.1 13.1 4.1 3.4 26.1 28.2 0.6 0.5

Crompton Greaves Accumulate 134 141 8,570 12,691 14,126 7.4 8.9 7.0 9.7 19.1 13.8 2.2 2.0 11.9 15.0 0.7 0.6

Jyoti Structures Buy 49 54 400 2,622 2,744 10.7 10.5 9.6 12.2 5.1 4.0 0.6 0.5 10.8 12.3 0.4 0.3

KEC International Accumulate 68 78 1,742 6,858 7,431 7.1 7.5 8.3 9.8 8.2 6.9 1.4 1.2 25.1 24.0 0.4 0.4

LMW Neutral 2,026 - 2,283 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 14.1 12.2 2.4 2.2 17.4 18.4 0.5 0.4

Thermax Neutral 573 - 6,829 5,514 5,559 8.9 10.2 26.9 30.3 21.3 18.9 3.7 3.2 18.4 18.2 1.1 1.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

October 10, 2012

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Cement

ACC Neutral 1,430 - 26,854 10,964 12,417 21.6 21.5 76.9 82.2 18.6 17.4 3.5 3.2 19.5 19.1 2.2 1.9

Ambuja Cements Neutral 210 - 32,409 10,163 11,729 25.4 24.9 11.2 12.5 18.9 16.9 4.0 3.6 20.3 20.5 2.7 2.2

India Cements Neutral 92 - 2,826 4,354 4,929 18.6 18.7 9.8 12.3 9.4 7.5 0.8 0.8 8.6 10.2 1.1 1.0

J K Lakshmi Cements Neutral 112 - 1,372 1,964 2,278 19.5 20.4 16.3 17.9 6.9 6.3 1.0 0.9 14.7 14.6 0.9 1.2

Madras Cements Neutral 186 - 4,435 3,608 3,928 27.6 27.0 15.7 18.3 11.8 10.2 1.9 1.6 16.9 17.0 1.9 1.6

Shree Cements^ Neutral 3,914 - 13,636 5,630 6,187 29.6 27.9 222.5 259.3 17.6 15.1 4.0 3.3 25.3 23.8 1.9 1.5

UltraTech Cement Neutral 2,052 - 56,248 20,913 23,530 21.3 22.7 93.2 1 10.5 22.0 18.6 3.8 3.2 18.4 18.7 2.5 2.3Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 232 304 1,222 2,034 2,315 22.4 22.4 27.1 31.7 8.6 7.3 1.1 0.9 13.1 13.4 1.8 2.1

Consolidated Co Neutral 15 - 269 2,262 2,522 6.7 7.5 1.5 2.7 9.8 5.5 0.4 0.4 4.4 7.5 0.4 0.4

Hind. Const. Neutral 19 - 1,150 4,239 4,522 9.9 11.2 (2.3) (1.0) (8.4) (19.7) 1.1 1.2 (11.4) (5.6) 1.2 1.2

IRB Infra Accumulate 153 166 5,080 3,964 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.7 16.9 9.7 9.0 1.5 1.3 16.6 15.8 2.8 2.7

ITNL Buy 186 232 3,608 6,840 7,767 26.4 26.1 24.4 30.3 7.6 6.1 1.1 1.0 16.0 16.2 2.7 2.9

IVRCL Infra Accumulate 47 51 1,430 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 18.4 10.2 0.6 0.6 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.7

Jaiprakash Asso. Accumulate 85 91 18,117 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.0 4.8 21.3 17.9 1.7 1.5 8.5 9.3 2.5 2.2

Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,629 1,721 99,971 60,474 69,091 12.1 11.5 79.7 85.4 20.4 19.1 3.4 3.0 16.3 15.1 1.8 1.6

Madhucon Proj Buy 37 56 273 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 8.0 7.9 0.4 0.4 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 53 - 1,359 5,804 6,513 8.0 8.6 3.0 3.5 17.4 15.1 0.6 0.5 3.2 3.6 0.6 0.7

Patel Engg. Neutral 85 - 593 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 6.1 5.8 0.4 0.4 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.0

Punj Lloyd Neutral 55 - 1,817 11,892 13,116 8.9 8.9 1.7 3.1 32.2 17.7 0.6 0.6 1.9 3.4 0.6 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 151 182 2,275 2,506 3,147 10.3 10.7 7.5 10.4 20.1 14.5 2.5 2.2 13.5 16.0 1.0 0.9

Simplex Infra Buy 221 265 1,095 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.4 29.4 9.5 7.5 0.8 0.8 9.2 10.6 0.5 0.5

FinancialsAllahabad Bank Reduce 142 131 7,093 6,944 7,884 3.0 3.1 35.5 37.0 4.0 3.8 0.7 0.6 17.2 15.7 - -

Andhra Bank Reduce 109 97 6,108 4,929 5,633 3.1 3.1 23.7 24.5 4.6 4.5 0.8 0.7 16.6 15.3 - -

Axis Bank Buy 1,128 1,326 46,767 15,425 18,500 3.1 3.2 115.9 137.5 9.7 8.2 1.8 1.5 19.9 20.1 - -

Bank of Baroda Neutral 773 - 30,263 15,473 18,142 2.6 2.6 115.3 139.4 6.7 5.5 1.0 0.9 16.2 17.2 - -

Bank of India Accumulate 296 330 16,978 12,573 14,971 2.3 2.4 58.2 68.0 5.1 4.4 0.8 0.7 15.9 16.3 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Reduce 50 47 2,924 3,442 3,802 3.1 3.2 8.9 11.4 5.6 4.3 0.7 0.6 13.5 15.5 - -

Canara Bank Neutral 436 - 19,304 10,905 12,783 2.1 2.2 74.9 85.1 5.8 5.1 0.9 0.8 15.1 15.3 - -

Central Bank Neutral 76 - 5,572 7,095 8,102 2.5 2.7 15.6 21.0 4.9 3.6 0.8 0.7 12.2 14.7 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

October 10, 2012

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Financials

Corporation Bank Neutral 412 - 6,107 4,886 5,669 2.1 2.2 101.3 101.8 4.1 4.1 0.7 0.6 17.0 15.1 - -

Dena Bank Neutral 105 - 3,670 3,147 3,495 2.8 2.9 24.8 24.4 4.2 4.3 0.7 0.6 18.7 15.9 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 463 - 7,918 2,593 3,009 3.2 3.2 44.9 52.5 10.3 8.8 1.3 1.1 12.8 13.5 - -

HDFC Neutral 748 - 115,148 7,340 8,805 3.5 3.5 31.5 37.8 23.7 19.8 4.7 4.2 34.8 32.2 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 626 - 147,760 21,753 26,811 4.4 4.5 28.7 35.9 21.8 17.4 4.2 3.5 20.7 21.9 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 1,064 1,245 122,323 22,304 26,855 2.9 3.0 68.6 82.0 15.5 13.0 1.9 1.7 14.2 15.6 - -

IDBI Bank Neutral 100 - 12,797 7,761 9,484 1.9 2.2 17.1 22.9 5.8 4.4 0.7 0.6 11.9 14.4 - -Indian Bank Reduce 187 181 8,043 6,062 6,818 3.4 3.4 40.5 41.6 4.6 4.5 0.8 0.7 18.1 16.3 - -

IOB Accumulate 80 83 6,372 7,343 8,391 2.5 2.5 16.0 21.3 5.0 3.8 0.6 0.5 11.3 13.6 - -

J & K Bank Accumulate 1,074 1,021 5,206 2,600 2,850 3.6 3.5 192.3 188.0 5.6 5.7 1.1 1.0 21.0 17.7 - -

LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 268 301 13,510 1,867 2,338 2.4 2.4 21.1 28.5 12.7 9.4 2.1 1.8 17.5 20.4 - -

Oriental Bank Neutral 287 - 8,360 6,278 7,125 2.7 2.8 56.7 62.6 5.1 4.6 0.7 0.6 14.1 13.9 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Accumulate 792 941 26,863 19,934 22,705 3.3 3.3 147.8 166.2 5.4 4.8 0.9 0.8 17.7 17.3 - -

South Ind.Bank Accumulate 23 25 3,092 1,535 1,760 2.9 2.8 3.5 3.9 6.5 5.9 1.1 1.0 19.5 17.1 - -

St Bk of India Accumulate 2,280 2,353 153,012 63,806 73,435 3.5 3.6 225.7 258.4 10.1 8.8 1.7 1.5 17.7 17.8 - -

Syndicate Bank Accumulate 116 117 6,971 6,722 7,719 2.9 3.0 24.3 27.2 4.8 4.3 0.8 0.7 17.0 16.8 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 76 - 5,042 5,411 6,124 2.4 2.5 17.0 16.5 4.5 4.6 0.9 0.8 16.7 14.4 - -

Union Bank Accumulate 197 226 10,846 9,924 11,647 2.8 2.9 38.6 46.3 5.1 4.3 0.8 0.7 15.4 16.3 - -

United Bank Buy 63 78 2,285 3,572 4,041 2.8 2.9 17.2 22.1 3.7 2.9 0.5 0.5 14.2 16.2 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 56 - 2,768 2,490 2,881 2.1 2.2 9.2 11.4 6.1 4.9 0.7 0.7 11.5 13.0 - -

Yes Bank Buy 394 452 14,038 3,270 4,253 2.8 3.0 33.9 42.2 11.6 9.3 2.5 2.0 23.1 23.6 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 3,879 - 37,212 11,198 13,184 16.3 16.3 121.0 144.8 32.1 26.8 10.8 8.5 37.4 35.3 3.3 2.8Britannia Buy 509 584 6,083 5,835 6,824 5.7 6.0 20.7 25.4 24.6 20.1 9.7 7.4 43.1 41.9 0.9 0.7

Colgate Neutral 1,250 - 16,998 3,018 3,429 20.9 22.2 35.7 42.3 35.0 29.5 32.3 24.1 101.0 93.5 5.3 4.6

Dabur India Neutral 131 - 22,832 6,124 7,030 17.0 16.8 4.5 5.2 29.3 25.3 12.1 9.6 43.2 41.5 3.7 3.1

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,925 - 12,303 3,124 3,663 17.1 17.6 104.5 123.8 28.0 23.6 8.7 7.0 34.4 32.8 3.7 3.1

Godrej Consumer Neutral 691 - 23,510 6,097 7,233 18.4 18.6 21.9 26.5 31.6 26.1 7.0 5.8 25.5 25.4 3.9 3.3

HUL Neutral 568 - 122,819 25,350 28,974 13.9 13.9 14.3 16.5 39.9 34.5 23.7 18.3 70.9 59.8 4.4 3.8

ITC Neutral 280 - 219,583 29,513 33,885 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.8 30.1 25.9 10.0 8.3 35.6 35.0 6.9 6.0


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FMCG

Marico Neutral 203 - 13,059 4,840 5,643 13.1 13.1 6.8 8.5 29.9 24.0 8.2 6.3 31.4 29.7 2.7 2.2

Nestle* Neutral 4,623 - 44,568 8,610 10,174 20.9 21.2 114.8 139.8 40.3 33.1 24.3 16.9 71.2 60.3 5.0 4.1

Tata Global Neutral 153 - 9,486 7,207 7,927 9.7 10.0 6.6 7.8 23.2 19.6 2.4 2.3 8.6 9.5 1.1 1.0

IT

HCL Tech^ Accumulate 561 632 38,932 24,569 27,002 18.8 17.6 41.4 45.1 13.5 12.4 3.1 2.6 22.8 21.1 1.6 1.4

Hexaware* Accumulate 115 140 3,393 1,966 2,161 22.5 21.4 11.6 12.2 9.9 9.4 2.6 2.2 26.8 23.9 1.5 1.3

Infosys Accumulate 2,537 2,687 145,680 39,383 41,380 31.7 31.9 163.2 173.4 15.5 14.6 3.7 3.2 23.9 22.0 3.1 2.8Infotech Enterprises Neutral 193 - 2,153 1,895 2,049 18.0 17.5 18.1 19.5 10.7 9.9 1.6 1.4 14.5 13.7 0.8 0.6

KPIT Cummins Buy 123 142 2,197 2,191 2,364 16.1 16.5 11.3 13.0 10.9 9.5 2.4 1.9 21.8 20.0 1.0 0.8

Mahindra Satyam Neutral 109 - 12,875 7,628 8,062 19.9 18.4 9.7 10.0 11.2 10.9 3.1 2.4 27.7 22.2 1.3 1.1

Mindtree Buy 661 772 2,707 2,334 2,481 19.5 17.6 70.4 77.2 9.4 8.6 2.2 1.7 23.3 20.4 0.9 0.8

Mphasis& Neutral 412 - 8,656 5,700 5,993 18.0 16.9 37.0 37.3 11.1 11.1 1.6 1.4 14.3 12.6 1.0 0.9

NIIT Accumulate 35 36 577 1,034 1,146 9.9 11.0 5.2 6.4 6.7 5.5 0.9 0.8 12.8 14.3 0.3 0.2

Persistent Reduce 429 398 1,715 1,207 1,278 26.2 24.3 42.4 44.3 10.1 9.7 1.7 1.5 17.1 15.5 1.1 0.9

TCS Accumulate 1,295 1,405 253,489 61,611 67,507 29.3 29.1 69.0 74.0 18.8 17.5 6.1 5.0 32.4 28.6 3.9 3.5

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 952 1,046 12,153 6,603 7,196 18.2 17.1 92.7 99.6 10.3 9.6 2.4 2.0 23.6 20.5 1.9 1.7

Wipro Accumulate 367 421 90,441 43,800 48,332 19.5 19.3 25.6 28.1 14.4 13.1 2.7 2.4 18.9 17.9 1.8 1.5

Media

D B Corp Buy 217 236 3,978 1,604 1,786 22.3 23.8 11.2 13.7 19.4 15.9 3.7 3.2 20.3 21.4 2.2 2.0

HT Media Buy 100 113 2,353 2,111 2,263 14.7 14.8 7.3 8.1 13.7 12.4 1.5 1.3 11.3 11.2 0.7 0.6

Jagran Prakashan Buy 97 112 3,076 1,488 1,664 22.7 22.8 6.2 7.1 15.6 13.6 3.8 3.4 25.2 26.3 2.1 1.8

PVR Neutral 207 - 537 625 732 17.4 17.1 13.3 15.6 15.5 13.2 1.7 1.5 13.2 13.8 1.2 1.0

Sun TV Network Neutral 352 - 13,882 1,981 2,239 77.0 76.7 18.6 21.3 19.0 16.5 4.8 4.2 27.1 27.5 6.4 5.5Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 498 - 10,567 11,979 14,584 31.6 31.0 49.2 61.4 10.1 8.1 1.3 1.2 14.1 15.2 2.9 2.4

Coal India Accumulate 356 385 224,989 69,808 75,550 27.4 27.4 26.0 28.3 13.7 12.6 4.0 3.2 32.5 28.1 2.3 2.0

Electrosteel Castings Accumulate 20 23 689 1,984 2,074 11.2 12.6 2.5 2.9 8.0 6.9 0.4 0.2 5.1 5.7 0.5 0.5

Hind. Zinc Accumulate 136 144 57,338 12,446 13,538 52.3 52.9 14.3 15.5 9.5 8.7 1.8 1.5 20.5 18.9 2.7 2.1

Hindalco Neutral 119 - 22,716 84,855 92,446 8.7 9.3 13.2 16.2 9.0 7.3 0.7 0.6 7.8 8.9 0.7 0.6

JSW Steel Neutral 743 - 16,568 38,740 41,459 17.3 17.0 79.9 89.4 9.3 8.3 0.9 0.8 10.4 10.6 0.9 0.8

MOIL Accumulate 255 271 4,279 918 993 50.7 50.9 24.5 26.1 10.4 9.8 1.6 1.4 16.0 15.5 2.3 2.0

Monnet Ispat Buy 306 379 1,968 2,511 3,303 23.8 26.0 46.3 57.3 6.6 5.3 0.8 0.7 12.4 13.7 1.7 1.2


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Metals & Mining

Nalco Reduce 51 48 13,183 7,401 7,841 16.7 19.2 3.4 4.1 14.9 12.5 1.1 1.0 7.4 8.4 1.3 1.2

NMDC Accumulate 189 214 74,993 12,934 14,266 79.4 80.1 21.1 23.4 9.0 8.1 2.4 2.0 29.6 26.5 4.1 3.4

SAIL Neutral 85 - 35,151 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 8.9 7.3 0.8 0.7 9.4 10.6 1.2 1.0

Sesa Goa Neutral 173 - 15,035 7,704 8,034 33.6 34.6 42.0 43.1 4.1 4.0 0.8 0.7 22.3 19.2 2.2 2.1

Sterlite Inds Neutral 102 - 34,379 41,680 45,382 24.2 23.2 16.3 16.9 6.3 6.1 0.7 0.6 11.3 10.7 0.8 0.7

Tata Steel Buy 412 481 39,990 145,799 150,431 10.3 11.2 48.6 63.3 8.5 6.5 0.9 0.8 10.5 12.4 0.5 0.5

Sarda Accumulate 135 148 486 1,251 1,321 22.7 23.4 33.0 37.1 4.1 3.7 0.6 0.5 15.1 14.8 0.8 0.7Prakash Industries Buy 54 73 727 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 16.4 20.8 3.3 2.6 0.3 0.3 11.4 12.8 0.5 0.4

Godawari Power andIspat

Buy 122 161 387 2,341 2,425 15.6 17.3 33.3 43.2 3.7 2.8 0.4 0.4 13.2 14.4 0.5 0.5

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Accumulate 330 380 63,083 16,605 17,258 75.4 71.7 57.0 54.9 5.8 6.0 1.1 0.9 20.2 16.3 2.8 2.2

GAIL Neutral 381 - 48,335 50,176 55,815 15.5 15.8 35.4 36.5 10.8 10.4 1.9 1.7 18.9 17.0 0.7 0.5

ONGC Accumulate 281 312 240,195 147,139 154,821 33.9 33.7 30.7 32.3 9.2 8.7 1.6 1.4 18.3 17.2 1.4 1.2

Reliance Industries Neutral 815 - 267,007 362,700 380,031 7.9 8.0 61.5 64.3 13.3 12.7 1.3 1.2 10.3 9.9 0.7 0.7

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 301 - 3,863 3,228 3,819 11.5 11.3 19.2 22.1 15.7 13.6 4.2 3.8 28.7 29.0 1.3 1.0

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 258 - 3,613 3,040 3,135 24.3 26.7 24.8 27.9 10.4 9.3 2.4 2.0 25.5 23.6 1.3 1.1

Petronet LNG Accumulate 163 176 12,244 29,145 33,736 6.6 6.6 14.2 16.0 11.5 10.2 2.8 2.3 26.9 24.4 0.4 0.4

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Neutral 81 - 4,578 1,041 939 91.8 91.9 8.5 7.4 9.6 11.0 1.6 1.5 18.1 14.0 5.2 5.8

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 71 91 1,334 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 10.7 7.8 2.7 2.1 27.9 29.9 1.0 0.8

Aurobindo Pharma Accumulate 150 156 4,358 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 11.8 12.6 12.7 11.9 1.6 1.4 17.9 16.4 1.3 1.1

Aventis* Neutral 2,212 - 5,093 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.1 104.4 23.3 21.2 4.1 3.2 18.6 17.0 3.5 3.0Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 846 953 17,331 6,148 7,386 18.6 19.6 36.0 46.1 23.5 18.4 5.5 4.4 25.8 26.8 3.1 2.6

Cipla Neutral 372 - 29,829 8,031 9,130 23.4 22.4 18.4 20.0 20.2 18.6 3.3 2.9 17.8 16.6 3.6 3.1

Dr Reddy's Accumulate 1,706 1,859 28,954 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 20.4 18.4 4.2 3.5 22.4 20.8 2.9 2.6

Dishman Pharma Neutral 96 - 773 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 10.4 8.5 0.8 0.7 7.7 8.5 1.3 1.1

GSK Pharma* Neutral 1,946 - 16,485 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 25.6 23.6 7.4 6.6 20.1 26.3 5.5 4.8

Indoco Remedies Buy 66 92 604 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 8.9 7.4 1.4 1.2 16.4 17.0 1.1 0.9

Ipca labs Neutral 464 - 5,856 2,850 3,474 20.7 20.7 29.2 36.6 15.9 12.7 3.7 3.0 26.1 26.1 2.3 1.9

Lupin Accumulate 574 647 25,668 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.3 31.3 21.8 18.4 5.1 4.1 26.0 24.7 3.2 2.6

Orchid Chemicals Neutral 115 - 812 1,667 1,835 13.9 13.9 11.4 13.3 10.1 8.7 0.7 0.6 6.6 7.3 0.9 0.8


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Pharmaceuticals

Ranbaxy* Neutral 538 - 22,737 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 31.3 29.8 17.2 18.1 5.9 4.7 39.1 28.9 1.9 1.8

Sun Pharma Neutral 720 - 74,488 9,752 12,134 41.6 41.6 26.0 28.2 27.7 25.6 5.2 4.4 20.3 18.8 6.6 5.1

Power

CESC Neutral 330 - 4,123 5,218 5,644 24.2 23.8 44.6 47.6 7.4 6.9 0.8 0.7 11.0 10.6 1.6 1.6

GIPCL Accumulate 70 77 1,052 1,557 1,573 29.3 28.7 10.8 11.0 6.5 6.3 0.7 0.6 10.8 10.2 1.2 1.0

NTPC Neutral 170 - 140,132 74,111 85,789 22.7 23.1 12.1 13.7 14.1 12.4 1.7 1.6 12.6 13.2 2.5 2.3

Real EstateAnant Raj Accumulate 85 78 2,495 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 10.1 6.7 0.6 0.6 6.3 8.9 4.5 3.4

DLF Neutral 224 - 38,082 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 23.4 16.7 1.5 1.4 6.4 8.7 6.5 5.4

HDIL Buy 104 115 4,368 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 4.6 3.9 0.4 0.4 8.8 9.4 3.5 2.7

MLIFE Neutral 403 - 1,644 813 901 26.2 26.6 32.0 37.1 12.6 10.9 1.3 1.2 10.4 11.0 2.3 2.0

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 265 - 100,711 79,147 86,745 31.1 32.5 9.9 15.1 26.7 17.6 1.9 1.7 7.0 9.7 2.0 1.7

Idea Cellular Neutral 82 - 27,165 22,582 24,684 26.4 26.9 3.3 4.7 24.7 17.4 1.9 1.7 7.8 9.9 1.7 1.5

Rcom Neutral 62 - 12,714 20,650 20,935 32.3 33.0 4.2 5.8 14.6 10.7 0.3 0.3 2.3 3.1 2.3 2.1

zOthers

Abbott India Neutral 1,551 - 3,296 1,602 1,833 10.4 11.8 54.7 71.7 28.4 21.6 5.4 4.6 20.0 22.7 1.9 1.6

Bajaj Electricals Buy 223 228 2,225 3,670 4,290 7.6 8.8 15.0 23.0 14.9 9.7 2.7 2.2 18.6 22.4 0.5 0.5

Cera Sanitaryware Buy 364 388 460 396 470 16.7 16.6 31.0 35.0 11.7 10.4 2.7 2.2 24.8 23.0 1.1 1.0

Cravatex Buy 455 682 118 289 340 5.2 5.9 41.0 57.0 11.1 8.0 2.8 2.1 25.2 26.5 0.5 0.4

CRISIL Neutral 951 - 6,673 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 27.7 23.8 12.5 10.0 50.9 46.9 6.5 5.4

Finolex Cables Buy 47 61 720 2,334 2,687 6.2 6.5 8.0 10.0 5.9 4.7 0.8 0.7 13.0 14.9 0.2 0.2

Force Motors Buy 424 591 552 2,214 2,765 4.5 5.4 39.0 74.0 10.9 5.7 0.5 0.4 4.4 7.6 0.1 0.1Goodyear India Neutral 324 - 748 1,543 1,654 6.5 7.3 24.8 31.1 13.1 10.4 2.1 1.9 17.1 19.0 0.3 0.2

Disa India Buy 2,897 3,353 438 176 203 22.7 22.6 182.5 209.6 15.9 13.8 8.2 6.5 51.8 47.1 2.2 1.8

Greenply Industries Buy 213 309 513 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 7.2 4.8 1.2 1.0 16.8 21.0 0.5 0.4

Hitachi Neutral 139 - 319 868 977 3.9 6.6 2.7 10.9 50.6 12.8 1.8 1.6 3.7 13.6 0.4 0.4

Honeywell Automation Neutral 2,823 - 2,495 1,847 2,162 4.3 7.3 69.0 135.0 40.9 20.9 3.7 3.2 9.3 16.3 1.3 1.1

Styrolution ABS India Buy 668 744 1,175 1,056 1,081 8.1 10.6 34.0 47.0 19.7 14.2 2.7 2.3 14.7 17.5 1.1 1.0

ITD Cementation Neutral 241 - 278 1,451 1,669 12.3 12.4 32.4 41.5 7.4 5.8 0.7 0.6 9.4 10.9 0.6 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 155 - 2,497 1,248 1,468 9.8 10.4 5.9 7.2 26.1 21.6 3.8 3.4 15.0 16.6 2.5 2.0

MCX Accumulate 1,432 1,440 7,301 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 22.9 19.9 6.3 5.4 27.5 27.4 8.9 7.4

MRF Buy 10,295 12,884 4,366 11,804 12,727 10.4 10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3 8.0 7.2 1.5 1.3 21.3 19.4 0.5 0.5


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zOthers

Page Industries Neutral 3,386 - 3,776 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 35.7 28.0 18.6 15.1 57.4 59.5 4.0 3.2

Relaxo Footwears Accumulate 712 821 855 1,019 1,208 12.3 13.0 51.0 68.4 14.0 10.4 3.7 2.7 30.3 30.2 1.0 0.8

Sintex Industries Buy 73 79 1,987 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 5.3 4.6 0.7 0.6 12.9 13.2 0.8 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 300 392 281 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 4.5 3.8 0.9 0.7 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4

S. Kumars Nationwide Buy 20 24 586 7,134 7,985 19.7 19.4 12.2 14.1 1.6 1.4 0.2 0.2 11.3 11.5 0.6 0.6

SpiceJet Buy 37 43 1,778 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 10.2 6.8 14.7 4.7 - - 0.4 0.4

TAJ GVK Buy 74 108 461 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 9.3 8.1 1.2 1.1 13.9 14.4 1.8 1.5Tata Sponge Iron Buy 324 377 499 787 837 16.2 17.5 58.5 66.9 5.6 4.9 0.8 0.7 14.9 15.1 0.3 0.2

TVS Srichakra Accumulate 306 335 234 1,476 1,643 7.0 8.2 32.6 55.9 9.4 5.5 1.5 1.2 16.8 24.8 0.4 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 1,261 - 16,489 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 40.6 29.4 3.2 2.9 8.1 10.3 2.2 2.0

Vesuvius India Neutral 346 - 702 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 14.0 12.0 2.1 1.8 15.8 16.2 1.1 1.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on October 09, 2012


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Market Outlook 10.10.12

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