Market Metrics for DOE Congestion Study Overview and … by Farrokh Rahimi... · Market Metrics for...

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Market Metrics for DOE Congestion StudyOverview and Results

Farrokh Rahimi, Ph.D. Vice President, OATI Technical Workshop in Support of the DOE 2009 Congestion Study

Chicago, March 25 - 26, 2009


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Topics

• Description of “Market” metrics• Midwest ISO Specific, Market Data, Results,

and Issues• NYISO Specifics, Market Data, Results, and

Issues• PJM Specifics, Market Data, Results, and

Issues• ISONE Specifics, Market Data, Results, and

Issues• Observations and Conclusions


Main Market Metric Categories

• Congestion Frequency (number of hours transmission constraint was binding in 2007)– Criterion: Non-zero constraint shadow price (SP)– Screening SP Threshold: 5% of Offer Cap ($50/MWh)– Screening Frequency Threshold (20 hours/year); or top 50– Shadow Price “Bin” Break Points

• Negative Shadow Prices: -$500/MWh, -$200/MWh, and -$50/MWh

• Positive Shadow Prices: $50/MW, $200/MWh, and $500/MWh

• Congestion Rent (CR)– Defined for Binding Constraints as Shadow Price * Flow

(or Shadow Price * Constraint Limit)– Where Flow and/or Constraint Limit data were

unavailable, Sum of Shadow Prices for the constraint over the period in question was used as surrogate instead


• Congestion Component of LMP (LMPCC)– Screening LMPCC Threshold: 2% of Offer Cap ($20/MWh)– Screening Frequency Threshold (20 hours/year); or top 50– LMPCC “Bin” Break Points

• Negative LMPCC: -$20/MWh, -$40/MWh, -$100/MWh• Positive LMPCC: $20/MW, $40/MWh, $100/MWh

• Markets: Day-Ahead (primary for NYISO, PJM, and ISONE); Real-time (primary for MISO)

• Temporal Breakdown – MISO: Annual (peak; off-peak; all hours); February (peak);

April (off-peak); August (peak); October (peak; off-peak)– NYISO: Annual (peak; off-peak; all hours); January (peak);

April (peak); August (peak); October (peak; off-peak)– PJM: Annual (peak; off-peak; all hours); February (peak);

May (off-peak); August (peak); October (off-peak), December (peak)

– ISONE: Annual (peak; off-peak; all hours)

Main Market Metric Categories (continued)


Data Requirements and Availability

• Shadow Prices– Binding Constraint Shadow Prices (public)– Markets

• Day-Ahead

• Real-Time

• Flows and/or Constraint Limits (for Computation of Congestion Rents)– NYISO , PJM, and SONE

• Unavailable for internal binding constraints

• Used sum of Shadow prices as a supplemental metric

– Midwest ISO• “Commercial Flow” data (not publicly available) was

provided to DOE/OATI for use in this study

• Nevertheless Sum of Shadow Prices is reported here for consistency among markets analyzed


Data Requirements and Availability (continued)

• LMP Congestion Component (LMPCC)– LMPs and LMP components available (public)

• Day-Ahead (hourly)• Real-Time (hourly average of 5-minute prices)

– PJM: No LMPCC data for January through May 2007. Used approximate back computation

– Using LMP data only for specific Node Types to identify import-limited or export-limited “areas”• Midwest ISO: Aggregates, Zones• New York ISO: Generators, Zones• PJM: Generators, Zones • ISONE: Network Nodes, Zones

– Clustering• Manual clustering algorithm to combine nodes in each node type

category based on proximity of LMPCCs• Need geographical coordinates if must show nodal LMPCC

(clusters) on the map


Market Metrics Study Results for Midwest ISO


Summary Statistics – Top 25 Frequently Binding Constraints (Midwest ISO Real-Time Market; 2007)

Binding ConstraintsAnnual Count Min SP Max SP Mean SP Std Dev Sum SP

BLACKO_BEDNGT500_PRNTY_MTSTM500 674 ‐$970.28 ‐$50.12 ‐$189.03 $136.68 ‐$127,407

State_Line_Wolf_Lake_138_flo_Burnham_Sheffield_3 666 ‐$1,262.98 ‐$50.02 ‐$208.99 $149.90 ‐$139,185

S1226_Tekamah_161kV_flo_S3451_Raun_345kV 284 ‐$1,903.18 ‐$50.98 ‐$605.62 $384.20 ‐$171,995

EAU_CLAIRE_ARPIN_345_KV 265 ‐$2,573.53 ‐$50.43 ‐$198.67 $225.30 ‐$52,648

Ellington_Hintz_138_flo_NAppleton_WernerWest_345 248 ‐$1,964.27 ‐$50.21 ‐$372.11 $329.02 ‐$92,283

PADDOCK_XFMR_1_WEMPLETON_ROCKDALE 227 ‐$1,620.05 ‐$50.64 ‐$264.04 $245.99 ‐$59,937

Arnold_Hazleton_ 199 ‐$1,628.62 ‐$50.46 ‐$336.82 $282.54 ‐$67,027

PANA_XFMR_COFFEEN_COFFEEN_NORTH 163 ‐$2,816.15 ‐$53.47 ‐$341.12 $336.08 ‐$55,603

BRE16X01_CULLEY_CULLEGRAND13_1_1 148 ‐$501.75 ‐$50.19 ‐$113.50 $60.63 ‐$16,799

Tiffin_Arnold_345kV 136 ‐$1,921.58 ‐$52.28 ‐$474.05 $467.13 ‐$64,471

GGS 130 ‐$986.63 ‐$50.39 ‐$321.95 $249.31 ‐$41,853

Pierce345_138_Xfm_B_Pierce_Foster345 120 ‐$2,226.64 ‐$55.25 ‐$537.31 $466.78 ‐$64,477

Oak_Grove_Galesburg_flo_Nelson_ElectricJct 117 ‐$1,203.69 ‐$50.65 ‐$295.38 $258.60 ‐$34,559

IMO_DECO 114 ‐$1,635.71 ‐$50.04 ‐$364.65 $280.38 ‐$41,570

Plymth_Sioux_City_161_flo_Raun_Sioux_City_345 109 ‐$1,459.73 ‐$58.37 ‐$605.57 $415.68 ‐$66,007

AMCBMT85_LABADIE_MASN‐L‐3_A 107 ‐$1,211.25 ‐$50.79 ‐$357.36 $238.23 ‐$38,237

Sub_56_Davnprt_ECalamus161_for_Quad_RockCr345_ 103 ‐$2,220.05 ‐$57.59 ‐$541.74 $478.54 ‐$55,799

Kammer_8_xfmr_l_o_Belmont_Harrison_500 103 ‐$399.89 ‐$50.02 ‐$103.03 $61.50 ‐$10,612

ALW3403_HAZLTON_HAZLTDUNDE16_1_1 99 ‐$1,966.09 ‐$64.65 ‐$426.98 $370.39 ‐$42,271

GENTLMN3_345_REDWILO3_345_1 94 ‐$1,360.80 ‐$58.21 ‐$373.21 $335.84 ‐$35,081

IPS05_COT_HLS_IP‐1456_3 90 ‐$545.05 ‐$53.04 ‐$136.35 $97.99 ‐$12,271

Dune_Acres_Michigan_City_138_1and2floWiltonCente 87 ‐$742.28 ‐$57.28 ‐$279.62 $158.78 ‐$24,327

Lime_Creek_Emery_161_flo_Adams_Hazleton_345 83 ‐$737.07 ‐$53.70 ‐$209.22 $162.95 ‐$17,365

Kammer_200_xfmr_flo_Belmont_Harrison_500 82 ‐$497.68 ‐$50.23 ‐$127.91 $80.56 ‐$10,488

WEC13288_STILES_64451_64 80 ‐$798.31 ‐$50.46 ‐$247.18 $176.54 ‐$19,774

Note: Not all constraints are in MISO footprint.


MISO - Top 50 Most Frequently Congested Constraints (RT Market; Annual : All hours)


$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

BLACK

O_B

EDNGT500

_PRN

TY_M

TSTM

500

State_

Line

_Wolf_Lake_1

38_flo_B

urnh

am_She

ffield_3

S122

6_Tekamah_1

61kV_flo_S34

51_R

aun_

345kV

EAU_C

LAIRE_ARP

IN_3

45_K

VEllington

_Hintz_1

38_flo_N

App

leton_

Werne

rWest_34

5PA

DDOCK

_XFM

R_1_

WEM

PLETON_R

OCK

DALE

Arnold_

Hazleton_

PANA_X

FMR_

COFFEEN_C

OFFEEN_N

ORTH

BRE16X

01_C

ULLEY_C

ULLEG

RAND13

_1_1

Tiffin_A

rnold_

345kV

GGS

Pierce34

5_13

8_Xfm_B

_Pierce_

Foster345

Oak_G

rove_G

alesbu

rg_flo_N

elson_

ElectricJct

IMO_D

ECO

Plym

th_Sioux_C

ity_1

61_flo_R

aun_

Siou

x_City_3

45AMCB

MT85_

LABA

DIE_M

ASN

‐L‐3_A

Kammer_8

_xfm

r_l_o_

Belmon

t_Harrison_

500

Sub_

56_D

avnp

rt_ECalamus16

1_for_Quad_

RockCr34

5_ALW

3403

_HAZLTO

N_H

AZLTD

UNDE16_

1_1

GEN

TLMN3_

345_

REDWILO3_

345_

1IPS05_

COT_HLS_IP‐14

56_3

Dun

e_Acres_M

ichigan_

City_1

38_1

and2

floWilton

Cente

Lime_

Cree

k_Em

ery_16

1_flo

_Adams_Hazleton_

345

Kammer_2

00_xfm

r_flo

_Belmon

t_Harrison_

500

WEC13

288_

STILES_6

4451

_64

Darwin_Eugen

_345

_flo_Jefferson

_Rockport_76

5IP13

113_

SBLO

OM_IP‐15

96_1

Bond

urant_Bo

oneJct_1

61_for_Leh

igh_

Web

ster_3

45_

NIP13

01_ISG

_2_1

3841

_AElrama_Mitche

ll_13

8kV_

flo_Ft_Martin

_Ron

co_5

00kV

MGE690

01_B

LOUNT_69

04_1

Highw

ay_V

_Preble_

138_

flo_Lost_Dauph

in_R

ed_M

aple_

Wylie_R

idge_7

_tx_l_o_

Wylie_5

_tx_SPS_in_service

Salem_3

45_1

61_X

FMR_

flo_Tiffin_A

rnold_

345

FE34

015_

MASU

RY_M

ASU

RY_S_SPG

_1Pu

lliam

4_Stiles_13

8_flo

_Pulliam5_

Stiles_13

8Co

ffee

n_Pana34

5Coffeen

_Coffeen

North34

5WEC13

333_

PLEA

SAN2_

8252

1_82

A_B

_Brown_

Hen

derson

_138

_flo_C

ulley_Grand

view

_138

ALW

3403

G_A

RNOLD

_ARN

OLVINTO

16_1

_1E_Calamus_1

61by11

5_XFR_

flo_Tiffin_A

rnold_

345

Gibson_

Petersbu

rg_3

45_flo_G

ibson_

Bedford_

345

NIP34

002_

TOWER_R

D_A

_NO_2

_XFM

RWylie_R

idge_7

_345

_500

_xfm

r_l_o_

Wylie_R

idge_5_3

45Wylie_R

idge_5

_345

_500

_xfm

r_l_o_

Belmon

t_Harrison_

AMCB

V158

_RIV_R

IV_N

OFM

_1_A

10NEW

TVL_16

1_10

NEW

TVL_13

8_1

BASE_FOX_

LK_FOX_

LRUTLA16

_1_1

BASE_ST_LA

KE_ST_LA

GARD

N34

_1_1

Dun

dee_

Hazleton_

161kV_

flo_A

rnold_

Hazleton_

345kV

Ann

ual Sum

of A

BS(SP) with SP

<‐$50/M

Wh

Ann

ual Cou

nt of Sha

dow Prices <‐$

50/M

Wh

MISO Annual Real‐time Shadow Prices < ‐$50/MWh ‐ Top 50 by Count

Count LE ‐500

Count ‐200 to ‐500

Count ‐50 to ‐200

Psum


MISO – Count and Psum of Real-Time Shadow Prices with ABS(SP) > $500/MWh (Annual : All hours)


$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Annual Sum of ABS(SP) with SP <‐$500/MWh

Annual Count of Shadow Prices <‐$500/MWh

MISO Annual Real‐time Shadow Prices < ‐$500/MWh 20 hours or more in 2007

Count LE ‐500

Psum LE ‐500


Top 50 Aggregate Nodes with Negative LMPCC (Annual; Real-Time; Count)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

ALTW.JOULO

UIES

ALTW.JOULO

UIPW

ALTW.JOUCBLU

F3ALTW.JOUCBLU

F4ALTW.FAIR1

ALTW.FAIR2

ALTW.DAEC

ALTW.FPL_DAEC

ALTW.6ST64

ALTW.6ST67

ALTW.6ST68

SIGE.10CULG

N3

SIGE.WARR4SIGE

SIGE.10CULG

N2

ALTW.BVRCH1

ALTW.PRARC1

ALTW.PRARC2

ALTW.PRARC3

ALTW.PRARC4

ALTW.RCCSRCC1

ALTW.BVRCH2

ALTW.OTTUMW1

AMIL.COFFEEN1

AMIL.COFFEEN2

SIGE.10BGGTN

1SIGE.10BGGTN

2SIGE.10NEG

TN1

ALTW.BRLG

TN1

ALTW.BRLG

TN2

ALTW.BRLG

TN3

ALTW.BRLG

TN4

ALTW.AGEN

CY1

ALTW.AGEN

CY2

ALTW.AGEN

CY3

ALTW.AGEN

CY4

ALTW.BRLG

TN5

CWLD

.PLA

NTD

8SIGE.10ABBGN1

SIGE.10ABBGN2

SIGE.10ABGTG

TSIGE.ABBROWUN4

CWLD

.BLRG

ALTW.JOUNEA

LS4

ALTW.JOUNEA

LN3

ALTW.NCEN

T1ALTW.NCEN

T2FE.02SA

MMSN

3FE.02SA

MMSN

4FE.02SA

MMSN

5FE.02SA

MMSN

6

MISO Annual Real‐time Count of LMPCC LE ‐$20/MWh ‐ Top 50 Agregate Nodes

Count LE ‐100




MISO Top 40 Aggregate Nodes Ranked by Negative LMPCC (Annual; Real-Time; Count)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Count of LMPCC with ABS (LMPCC) >$20/MWh

MISO Aggregate Nodes Ranked by Count of Annual Real‐time LMPCC < ‐$20/MWh

LMPCC >= 20 Annual CountLMPCC <= ‐20 Annual All Count


Observations

• Shadow Prices– MISO Real-Time Shadow Prices are Non-positive– There were quite a number of constraints with

Shadow Prices exceeding $500/MWh in magnitude for 20 hours or more during the year 2007

• LMPCCs– Some Aggregate Node LMPCCs show little change of

sign during the year. They are either predominantly negative (in constrained-out areas) or positive (in constrained-in areas)

– Some Aggregate Node LMPCCs do change sign substantially and may not be consistently labeled as constrained-in or constrained out


Market Metrics Study Results for New York ISO


Specific Considerations for NYISO

• NYISO Shadow Price Data– NYISO Day-ahead Shadow Prices are posted with mixed

signs (positive and negative)– Negative Shadow Prices are due to misalignment of

reference directions of constraints and flows– NYISO provided direction correction to align data

• NYISO LMPCCs– Often multiple generator nodes are electrically close

(units in a power plant)– Performed pre-processing of generation nodes to retain

only one generator from among those with the same first 6 characters in generator name for further analysis


Summary Statistics – Top 25 (Count) Binding NYISO Day-Ahead Constraints in 2007 (no sign correction)

Binding Constraints Annual Count Min SP Max SP Mean SP Std Dev Sum SP

DUNWODIE 345 SHORE_RD 345 1 3091 $10.00 $239.10 $25.29 $16.30 $78,167

CENTRAL EAST ‐ VC 2163 $10.00 $109.29 $31.27 $19.19 $67,629

GOWANUSS 138 GREENWD 138 1 1634 $10.01 $240.37 $48.14 $35.72 $78,659

GOWANUSS 138 GOWANUSS 138 1 1594 ‐$324.28 ‐$10.00 ‐$67.80 $46.14 ‐$108,073

GREENWD 138 VERNON 138 1 1400 ‐$347.08 ‐$10.03 ‐$64.57 $49.84 ‐$90,396

PLSNTVLY 345 LEEDS 345 1 1373 ‐$461.48 ‐$10.03 ‐$63.24 $54.51 ‐$86,821

GOWANUSN 138 GREENWD 138 1 1232 $10.01 $146.25 $34.09 $24.10 $41,995

FRESHKLS 138 WILLWBRK 138 1 1021 $10.02 $790.99 $82.63 $65.73 $84,364

GREENWD 138 KENTAVE 138 1 676 ‐$336.13 ‐$10.14 ‐$68.40 $61.19 ‐$46,238

WEST CENTRAL 657 $10.02 $67.71 $22.92 $10.13 $15,056

SPRNBRK 345 EGRDNCTR 345 1 592 $10.03 $66.50 $19.51 $10.93 $11,547

FARRAGUT 138 HUDS_AVE 138 1 483 ‐$187.54 ‐$10.02 ‐$32.93 $27.70 ‐$15,906

RAINEY 345 DUNWODIE 345 1 435 ‐$122.71 ‐$10.08 ‐$28.16 $16.27 ‐$12,248

SCH ‐ HQ ‐ NY 385 $10.01 $55.20 $31.60 $12.26 $12,166

E179THST 138 HELLTP_W 138 1 365 $10.04 $143.57 $19.42 $11.34 $7,087

MOTTHAVN 345 RAINEY 345 2 361 $10.01 $54.54 $20.80 $8.49 $7,510

GOETHSLN 345 GOWANUSN 345 1 332 $10.19 $183.88 $45.70 $36.86 $15,172

EGRDNCTY 345 EGRDNCTY 138 1 305 $10.03 $112.16 $25.39 $18.08 $7,744

RAINEY 138 VERNON 138 1 276 $10.26 $143.56 $24.53 $16.13 $6,770

GOETHLSS 345 GOWANUSS 345 1 266 $10.02 $396.55 $43.82 $41.24 $11,655

KENTAVE 138 VERNON 138 1 213 ‐$331.68 ‐$10.40 ‐$111.97 $105.72 ‐$23,849

SCH ‐ NPX_1385 166 $10.07 $105.08 $41.96 $27.32 $6,965

HUDS_AVE 138 JAMAICA 138 1 123 $10.55 $173.80 $53.77 $38.93 $6,614

GOWANUSN 138 GOWANUSN 138 1 108 ‐$477.36 ‐$10.27 ‐$82.07 $98.30 ‐$8,863

W49TH_ST 345 SPRNBRK 345 2 106 ‐$70.49 ‐$10.30 ‐$33.34 $12.98 ‐$3,534


NYISO - Shadow Price Sign Reversal for Top 30 Day-Ahead Constraints with ABS(SP) > $10/MWh

‐

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Top 30 NYISO Annual Day‐Ahead Shadow Prices With ABS(SP) > $10/MWh

Count SP LE ‐10 (Sign Corrected)

Count SP GE 10 (Sign Corrected)


Count of Top 50 NYISO Generator Nodes with LMPCC < -$20/MWh (Annual; Day-Ahead)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

BROOKHAVEN

___DRP

EAST HAMPTO

N___GT

EAST_HAMPTO

N___DIESEL

GLO

BAL GREEN_PORT_GT1

HOLTSVILLE_IC_1

LIPA_MISC_IPP

MONTA

UK___DIESEL

SOUTH

OLD

___IC

WADING RIVER_IC_1

KED

C PORT_JEFF_GT2

NYPA_BREN

TWD_____GT

PORT_JEFF_3

PPL PILGRIM

_ST_GT1

PPL_SH

RM_GT3

SHOREH

AM_IC_1

Stony___Brook

BETHPAGE_CC_5

PINELAWN_CC_1

WEST BABYLON___IC

CALPINE BETH_PAGE_GT4

Freeport___CT2

NORTH

PORT___1

BARRETT___1

FAR ROCKAWAY___4

FPL FA

R_ROCK_GT1

ELEC_TRO_TEK

HEM

PSTEA

D____

GLENWOOD___4

KED

C_GLW

D_GT4

NYPA_POUCH1_____GT

BROOKLYN___ARMY_DRP

GOWANUS_GT1_1

NARROWS_GT1_1

YORK___WARBASSE

NYPA_GOWANUS_____GT5

ARTH

UR KILL_GT_1

NYPA_KEN

T_____GT

NYPA_VERNON_____GT2

GOETHSLN___LBMP

WATERSIDE___6 8 9

RAVEN

SWOOD___1

74TH

STREET_GT_1

FARRAGUT___LBMP

HUDSO

N AVE_GT_3

ASTORIA___2

CE_NYC_DRP

EAST_RIVER___1

EAST RIVER___6

POLETTI____

59TH

STREET_GT_1

NYISO Annual Day‐Ahead Count of LMPCC < ‐$20/MWh ‐ Top 50 Sample Generation Nodes

Count LE ‐100




Count of Top 50 NYISO Generator Nodes with LMPCC > $20/MWh (Annual; Day-Ahead)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

ALLEG

HEN

Y___

COGEN

GINNA__

__

STATION 5_M

ISC_

HYD

BEEBEE_G

T_13

RUSSELL___

1

ROCH

ESTER_

9_IC

OAK ORC

HARD

___H

YD

UNION__

_PRO

CESSING_D

RP

NEG

___G

EN_M

ONRO

E

KINTIGH__

__

SITH

E___

BATA

VIA

O.H._GEN

_BRU

CE

WESTERN

_NY_WIND

NYS_B

ARG

E___

HYD

NIAGARA

____

MODEL_C

ITY_EN

ERGY

MODERN_LFG

E__

NM_FRO

NTIER__

_DRP

OCC

_CHEM

___D

RP

OXB

OW__

__

AMERICAN_R

EF_FUEL

OLIN_C

ORP

_DRP

HUNTLEY__

_63

OUTO

KUMPU

‐AB_

__DRP

GARD

ENVILLE___

LBMP

CALSPA

N__

_DRP

GEN

ERAL___

MILLS

RANKINE___

_

STEEL___

WIND

LINDEN

COGEN

____

NEG

WEST___

LANCA

STR

DUNKIRK

___1

MILLSEA

T___

LFGE

NYPA_K

ENT___

__GT

GOETHSLN__

_LBM

P

CHAFFEE__

_LFG

E

NPX

_GEN

_138

5_PR

OXY

NEPA__

_ENERGY

ARTHUR KILL_G

T_1

ATH

ENS_STG_1

BLISS_WT_PW

R

NYPA_V

ERNON__

___G

T2

NINE_MILE_1

KIAC_

JFK_

GT1

FITZPA

TRICK_

___

PJM_G

EN_K

EYSTONE

N.E._GEN

_SANDY PD

NM_ST_REGIS__

_HYD

ALCOA_R

YNLD

S___

DRP

CHAT_HIGH_FALL_H

YD

NYISO Annual Day‐Ahead Count of LMPCC > $20/MWh ‐ Top 50 Sample Generation Nodes

Count GE 100

Count 40 to 100

Count 20 to 40


Count of Top 50 NYISO Generator Nodes with LMPCC > $20/MWh (Annual; Day-Ahead)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

ALLEG

HEN

Y___COGEN

GINNA____

STATION 5_MISC_HYD

BEEBEE_GT_13

RUSSELL___1

ROCHESTER_9_IC

OAK ORCHARD___HYD

UNION___PROCESSING_DRP

NEG

___GEN

_MONROE

KINTIGH____

O.H._GEN

_BRUCE

SITH

E___BATA

VIA

WESTERN_NY_WIND

NYS_BARGE___HYD

NIAGARA____

MODEL_CITY_EN

ERGY

MODERN_LFGE__

NM_FRONTIER___DRP

OCC_CHEM

___DRP

OXBOW____

AMERICAN_REF_FU

EL

OLIN_CORP_DRP

HUNTLEY___63

OUTO

KUMPU‐AB___DRP

GARDEN

VILLE___LBMP

CALSPAN___DRP

GEN

ERAL___MILLS

RANKINE____

STEEL___WIND

LINDEN

COGEN

____

NEG

WEST___LA

NCASTR

DUNKIRK___1

MILLSEA

T___LFGE

NYPA_KEN

T_____GT

GOETHSLN___LBMP

CHAFFEE___LFGE

NPX_GEN

_1385_PROXY

NEPA___EN

ERGY

ARTH

UR KILL_GT_1

ATH

ENS_STG_1

BLISS_WT_PWR

NYPA_VERNON_____GT2

NINE_MILE_1

KIAC_JFK_GT1

FITZPATRICK____

PJM

_GEN

_KEYSTONE

N.E._GEN

_SA

NDY PD

NM_ST_REG

IS___HYD

ALCOA_RYN

LDS___DRP

CHAT_HIGH_FA

LL_HYD

NYISO Annual Day‐Ahead Count of LMPCC > $20/MWh ‐ Top 50 Sample Generation Nodes

Total Count LE ‐20

Total Count GE 20


Observations Regarding NYISO Metrics

• NYISO Shadow Price Metrics– Very few Shadow Prices are positive after sign

correction – Very few Shadow Prices exceed $500/MWh in

magnitude (only 4 occurrence in 2007)

• NYISO Generation LMPCCs– Constrained Generator Nodes are predominantly

“Constrained out” (negative LMPCCs) – Most Generator Node LMPCCs show little change of sign

during the year– Some Generator Node LMPCCs do change sign but they

are predominantly either constrained-in or constrained out


Market Metrics Study Results for PJM


Specific Considerations for PJM

• LMPCC Metrics– No data for January to May 2007. Computed LMPCC for

January to May as follows• For each hour computed simple average of load node

LMPs and used as Reference Node LMP (LMPref)• For each node (Generation, Load, Zone, etc.) for each

hour computed the LMPCC of that node as (LMPnode –LMPref)

– Often multiple generator nodes are electrically close (units in a power plant)

– For presentation of results, retained only one Generator node from among those with the same initial 8 characters and with Count difference less than 5


Summary Statistics – Top 25 Frequently Binding PJM Day-Ahead Constraints in 2007 with SP < -$50/MWh


BED‐BLA 2518 ‐$478.99 ‐$50.02 ‐$100.43 $45.72 ‐$252,886

Cloverdale ‐ Lexington 500 kV 1285 ‐$271.08 ‐$50.01 ‐$70.75 $20.60 ‐$90,914

BRANCHBU230 KV BRA‐REA 981 ‐$933.00 ‐$50.11 ‐$148.82 $127.45 ‐$145,990

BECKET 69KV BEC‐PAU 581 ‐$877.61 ‐$50.80 ‐$347.39 $198.71 ‐$201,834

ETOWANDA115 KV 3 TX 577 ‐$463.94 ‐$50.06 ‐$161.84 $89.39 ‐$93,384

MEADOWBR138 KV TRAN 3 475 ‐$1,847.66 ‐$50.01 ‐$151.85 $152.90 ‐$72,129

BEDINGTO138 KV BED‐NIP 332 ‐$624.57 ‐$50.04 ‐$119.93 $85.22 ‐$39,817

KAMMER2 765 KV .200 319 ‐$206.22 ‐$50.00 ‐$76.81 $29.06 ‐$24,503

ATLANTIC230 KV ATL‐LAR 314 ‐$499.00 ‐$50.03 ‐$102.72 $70.06 ‐$32,255

WYLIERID500 KV TRAN 7 298 ‐$232.82 ‐$50.00 ‐$86.87 $39.26 ‐$25,886

GARDNERS115 KV GAR‐HUN 279 ‐$1,645.89 ‐$50.30 ‐$117.94 $151.36 ‐$32,905

MITCHELL138 KV MIT‐SHE 232 ‐$273.70 ‐$50.04 ‐$109.39 $48.23 ‐$25,379

BEDINGTO138 KV TRAN 1 222 ‐$1,382.27 ‐$50.13 ‐$382.98 $339.19 ‐$85,022

APSOUTH 220 ‐$225.03 ‐$50.03 ‐$89.68 $38.85 ‐$19,729

KERRDAM 115 KV 22C 213 ‐$363.98 ‐$50.06 ‐$127.11 $71.68 ‐$27,075

TIDD_AEP138 KV MAH‐TID 187 ‐$278.03 ‐$50.30 ‐$104.88 $50.97 ‐$19,613

CARS DUQ138 KV CAR‐HOM 184 ‐$523.48 ‐$50.91 ‐$169.21 $94.76 ‐$31,134

HUNTERST115 KV 4 BANK 165 ‐$296.27 ‐$50.68 ‐$130.98 $64.19 ‐$21,611

BRANCHBU230 KV BRA‐FLA 160 ‐$431.90 ‐$51.57 ‐$118.22 $66.72 ‐$18,914

HALIFAX 115 KV 33C 149 ‐$350.81 ‐$50.32 ‐$119.24 $65.71 ‐$17,767

AMOS 345 KV 7‐P 147 ‐$365.45 ‐$50.11 ‐$136.63 $78.34 ‐$20,084

BEDINGTO138 KV TRAN 2 145 ‐$519.60 ‐$52.24 ‐$127.50 $88.04 ‐$18,487

BED‐BLA contingency 8 137 ‐$220.54 ‐$50.76 ‐$106.60 $43.95 ‐$14,604

ALBRIGHT138 KV ALB‐MTZ 133 ‐$433.91 ‐$50.82 ‐$124.60 $80.24 ‐$16,571

AXTONAEP765 KV . 1 127 ‐$208.80 ‐$50.46 ‐$95.28 $37.29 ‐$12,100


Top Frequently Binding Day-Ahead Constraints with ABS (SP) > 500/MWh (PJM Annual All Hours)


BECKET 69KV BEC‐PAU 143 ‐$877.61 ‐$502.18 ‐$615.44 $83.97 ‐$88,008

BEDINGTO138 KV TRAN 1 63 ‐$1,382.27 ‐$521.81 ‐$840.55 $275.67 ‐$52,954

BRANCHBU230 KV BRA‐REA 24 ‐$933.00 ‐$502.32 ‐$709.91 $106.91 ‐$17,038

DOUBS 500 KV 500‐3 20 ‐$964.57 ‐$502.79 ‐$764.00 $152.88 ‐$15,280

JACK ME 115 KV 4 BA‐S 11 ‐$961.43 ‐$619.98 ‐$785.55 $101.60 ‐$8,641

BECKETT 69 KV BEC‐PAU 10 ‐$760.32 ‐$511.99 ‐$654.10 $101.69 ‐$6,541

MEADOWBR138 KV TRAN 3 10 ‐$1,847.66 ‐$506.27 ‐$950.91 $440.07 ‐$9,509

NSEAFORD138 KV AT‐1 9 ‐$1,762.46 ‐$581.64 ‐$896.08 $353.38 ‐$8,065

EUREKA 138 KV EUR‐WIL 6 ‐$762.99 ‐$522.90 ‐$670.56 $73.68 ‐$4,023

KMF‐PM 5 ‐$568.61 ‐$514.82 ‐$546.25 $21.05 ‐$2,731

BELMONT 500 KV TRAN 3 4 ‐$1,186.21 ‐$999.20 ‐$1,090.35 $66.58 ‐$4,361

GARDNERS115 KV GAR‐HUN 4 ‐$1,645.89 ‐$874.96 ‐$1,238.17 $286.96 ‐$4,953

KINGWOOD138 KV KIN‐PRU 4 ‐$598.15 ‐$509.50 ‐$547.98 $34.34 ‐$2,192

ALLELUD4138 KV ALL‐SPR 3 ‐$842.95 ‐$570.49 ‐$719.16 $112.62 ‐$2,157

BEDINGTO138 KV BED‐NIP 3 ‐$624.57 ‐$528.69 ‐$580.94 $39.61 ‐$1,743

CLAYSBUR115 KV CLA‐CUR 3 ‐$544.28 ‐$510.21 ‐$526.33 $13.97 ‐$1,579

OX4 500 KV TX2 3 ‐$848.28 ‐$602.83 ‐$692.07 $110.83 ‐$2,076

ALBRIGHT138 KV ALB‐SNO 2 ‐$876.83 ‐$619.84 ‐$748.34 $128.50 ‐$1,497

ALTAVSTA115 KV 30A 2 ‐$1,319.03 ‐$1,288.34 ‐$1,303.69 $15.35 ‐$2,607

GLENDON 115 KV GLE‐HOS 2 ‐$535.03 ‐$501.21 ‐$518.12 $16.91 ‐$1,036

PLYMOUTH230 KV PLY‐WHI4 2 ‐$532.62 ‐$502.29 ‐$517.46 $15.17 ‐$1,035


Generator Nodes with ABS (LMPCC) > $20/MWh -Top 50 (PJM Annual; Day-Ahead; Ordered by Count)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

WARRIORN13 KV GEN

1SA

VAGEM

T138 KV …

NFRANKLI138 KV …

KELSO

GAP138 KV …

HATFIELD

18 KV GEN

1CHESWICK24 KV UNIT1

ALBRIGHT13 KV GEN

1ELRAMA 17 KV UNIT4

RONCO 18 KV CT1

ELRAMA 16 KV UNIT3

WILLIAM 34 KV …

ELRAMA 13 KV UNIT1

FTMARTIN22 KV GEN

1TIDD_AEP24 KV CD1

LAKELYN

N11 KV GEN

…TIDD_AEP24 KV CD2

OSA

GE 138 KV M

EA …

GANS 138 KV GEN

8KAMMER2 26 KV M

L1BRUNOTIS13 KV CT2A

BRUNOTIS13 KV CT1A

BRUNOTIS13 KV UNIT3

VALL DUQ23 KV …

RIVESVIL11 KV GEN

5AES DUQ 13 KV M

AIN

STJOE 13 KV UNIT1

GATESH

IL138 KV …

GRANTTOW18 KV …

PLEA APS26 KV GEN

1BEA

V DUQ22 KV UNIT1

MITCHELL13 KV GEN

…KAMMER2 26 KV M

L2WILLO

WIS13 KV GEN

1HARR APS20 KV GEN

1KAMMER2 15.5 KV …

OAKG APS138 KV …

CONNELSV138 KV …

GORSU

CH 138 KV …

BLA

CKOAK500 KV SVC

NEW

MARTI138 KV …

GORDON 138 KV …

CODOVER

138 KV …

AMPOR 138 KV …

DEN

AWASH

18 KV UN1

MUSKING215.5 KV …

MUSKING218 KV M

R1

7 STA

TE 18 KV SL‐4

944 SE C13.5 KV SE10

944 SE C13.5 KV SE‐9

MUSKING215.5 KV …

PJM Annual Day‐Ahead Count of ABS(LMPCC) > $20/MWh ‐ Top 50 Generator Nodes

Total Count LE ‐20

Total Count GE 20


Observations

• Shadow Price Metrics– PJM Shadow Prices are Non-positive– There were quite a number of constraints with

Shadow Prices exceeding $500/MWh in magnitude during the year 2007

• LMPCC Metrics– The top frequently constrained generators are

constrained out (negative LMPCC)– Most Generator Node LMPCCs show little change of

sign during the year– Some Generator Node LMPCCs do change sign but

they are predominantly either constrained-in or constrained out


Market Metrics Study Results for ISONE


Specific Considerations for ISONE

• Shadow Prices– ISONE Shadow Prices are available only for Interfaces– No shadow price data for internal ISONE Constraints– ISONE Shadow Prices are all non-positive

• Congestion Rent Metrics– ISONE provided “Flow” data for Interfaces– For consistency sum of ABS(Shadow Price) was used as

surrogate for congestion rent

• LMPCC Metrics– LMPCC data is available publicly from ISONE website– Network Nodes were used as primary node types


ISONE Day-Ahead Interface Shadow Prices with ABS (SP) > $10/MWh (Ordered by Annual Count)


ISONE Annual Day-ahead Network Nodes with LMPCCs > $20/MWh - Top 50 (Ordered by Count)


ISONE Annual Day-ahead Network Nodes with LMPCCs < -$20/MWh - Top 50 (Ordered by Count)


Observations

• ISONE Shadow Prices are much lower in magnitude and frequency than other markets

• Compared to other markets, ISONE LMPCCs are lower in magnitude and the frequency with which they exceeded the designated thresholds

• These results confirm that there was much less congestion in ISONE in 2007 compared to other markets analyzed


Concluding Remarks

• Market Metrics based on Shadow Prices are more consistent than those based on LMPCC

• LMPCC metrics are still useful for designation of seasonal variations of constrained-out and constrained-in areas

• Among the markets analyzed, MISO and PJM had larger frequency and magnitude of congestion in 2007 than NYISO and ISONE

• ISONE was the least congested


THANK YOUFarrokh Rahimi, Ph.D.

[email protected]

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