MARKET CURRENCY INSIGHT INTO GLOBAL CURRENCIES...CURRENCY OUTLOOK AUSTRALIA ECONOMIC DATA AUD...

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CURRENCY OUTLOOK MARCH 2017 MARKET INSIGHT INTO GLOBAL CURRENCIES moving money for better

Transcript of MARKET CURRENCY INSIGHT INTO GLOBAL CURRENCIES...CURRENCY OUTLOOK AUSTRALIA ECONOMIC DATA AUD...

Page 1: MARKET CURRENCY INSIGHT INTO GLOBAL CURRENCIES...CURRENCY OUTLOOK AUSTRALIA ECONOMIC DATA AUD February review The Australian dollar continued higher in February boosted by a strong

CURRENCY OUTLOOKMARCH 2017

MARKET INSIGHT INTO GLOBAL CURRENCIES

moving money for better

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CURRENCY OUTLOOKUNITED STATES

MARCH2017 EVENTS

February reviewThe U.S. dollar found some comfort in February however meaningful gains continued to elude the currency. The USD has waxed and waned in 2017 as dollar bulls get acquainted with a new administration in Washington that has signaled a lower tolerance of a strong currency.

Meanwhile, a lack of detail from the Trump administration about its plans to accelerate growth in the world’s biggest economy over the coming years has also dampened dollar enthusiasm. Still, bouts of dollar weakness have been curtailed by the U.S. economy’s promising start to the year which keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

� U.S. data delight on jobs, inflation and retail spending

� Will the US administration pursue a weaker dollar policy to shrink the trade gap?

� Market sees low but rising risk of an imminent U.S. rate hike

March risk events and key themesThe dollar’s Q1 fate is seen to be resting on the Fed’s mid-March policy decision when the central bank renders both an interest rate and unveils new forecasts for growth. No rate hike is expected, but a stronger signal of tighter monetary policy on the horizon could allow the dollar to test the upper limits of its range. Still, the speed at which the dollar swings may hinge on what transpires in Washington on the policy and stimulus front.

� Dollar poised for upward or downward March?

� U.S. inflation (Mar 1), jobs (Mar 10) data critical

� Ides of March: Fed decision Mar 15

ECONOMIC DATA � Base Rate: 0.50-0.75%

� Annual GDP: 1.9% (Q4)

� Annual Inflation: 1.7% (Dec)

� Unemployment: 4.8% (Jan)

� Trade Balance: -$44.3b

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Mar 7 Trade Deficit

Mar 15 FOMC Decision

Mar 1 Consumer Spending, Inflation

Mar 10 Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment

Mar 30 Q4 GDP Final

Source: Reuters, 2017

EUR/USD (12 MTH)

1.03

1.07

1.11

1.15

F M A M J J A S O N D J F

JOE MANIMBO, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – NORTH AMERICA

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CURRENCY OUTLOOKCANADA

February reviewThe loonie pared a year-to-date gain against the U.S. dollar as market focus shifted increasingly towards the outlook for global monetary policy. Few major currencies can compete against the U.S. dollar when the topic turns to interest rates. That’s because the Fed has raised rates twice since late 2015 and plans more increases in the year ahead. Canada, meanwhile, is not expected to follow in America’s higher rate footsteps for a while yet, particularly after Canadian consumer spending unexpectedly shifted into reverse in December.

� Oil steadied around $50, underpinning commodity currencies

� Trudeau-Trump White House summit suggested ‘tweaks’ to trade deals

� USDCAD started 2017 above 1.34

March risk events and key themesThe loonie has held firm in recent months, a gain that hasn’t gone unnoticed at the Bank of Canada which considers its rise a risk to the economy’s export-led recovery. Canada’s currency is poised to receive an early month cue when the BOC issues a policy decision on March 1.

Central bankers are not expected to alter their record low rate of 0.50 percent over the foreseeable future, a steady outlook that leaves the loonie vulnerable as the debate intensifies for the Fed to raise rates to put a lid on rising inflation expectations. The answers to the following questions should be of critical importance to the loonie’s coming prospects:

� Will the Bank of Canada let the doves or hawks loose?

� Is Canada’s hiring spree sustainable?

� How long will oil keep above $50? ECONOMIC DATA � Base Rate: 0.50%

� Annual GDP: 3.5% (Q3)

� Annual Inflation: 1.5% (Dec)

� Unemployment: 6.8% (Jan)

� Trade Balance: +C$0.92b

CADUSD/CAD (12 MTH)

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

F M A M J J A S O N D J F

MARCH2017 EVENTS

JOE MANIMBO, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – NORTH AMERICA

Source: Reuters, 2017

Mar 24 Inflation

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Mar 7 Trade Balance

Mar 1 Bank of Canada Decision

Mar 10 Employment

Mar 2 Q4 GDP

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CURRENCY OUTLOOKUNITED KINGDOM

ECONOMIC DATA

GBPGBP/USD (12 MTH)

February reviewGBPUSD traded sideways through February as the Brexit bill sailed smoothly through Parliament on its way to the House of Lords, where it also passed on to committee stage at the end of the month. Economic data was reasonable although house prices, a bell weather for UK growth, show negative reactions to new tax treatment and a possible Brexit effect. GBPEUR rallied into the end of the month as strains within Europe, and and an unpredictable outlook for the French election, weighed on Euro.

March risk events and key themesWe have PMIs within the first few days, most likely followed by a triggering of Article 50. We see only a small kneejerk lower for GBP on this event. The Fed will meet on the 15th of the month, with MPC the next day. If the Fed announce a hike, GBPUSD is likely to test the downside, as MPC keep rates unchanged. GBPEUR could see an initial rally from either higher US rates, or even more favourable polling for Le Pen ahead of the French elections.

� Base Rate: 0.25%

� Annual GDP: 1.8%

� Annual CPI: 1.8%

� Unemployment: 4.8%

� Trade Balance: £-10.9b

1.20

1.28

1.36

1.44

F M A M J J A S O N D J F

MARCH2017 EVENTS

Mar 3 UK Services PMI data

Mar 16 MPC Meeting on Interest Rates & Monetary Policy

Mar 15 Federal Reserve meeting on Interest Rates & Monetary Policy

Mar 2 UK Manufacturing PMI data

JOHN MARLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA

Source: Reuters, 2017

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

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CURRENCY OUTLOOKEURO ZONE

ECONOMIC DATA

February ReviewThe significant upturn of the euro in early 2017 finally expired and did not reach February. Europe is back in the spotlight after new concerns about the health of Greece, and the upcoming French election scheduled for spring.

� The 3-month implied volatility on the EUR/USD rate spiked to a two-month high as political uncertainties intensified

� No deal has been signed between creditors, IMF officials and the Greek government regarding terms of a new €86Bln bail-out program

� The euro declined against all of its G10 peers this month, except the SEK (as of February 20th)

March risk events and key themesThe degree of concern ahead of the French election will be a compass for the euro. Increased odds of a of a Marine Le Pen victory in May could push the euro south. Inversely, the euro could go north if hype around her candidacy weakens. Strong results for the far-right Dutch party during the parliamentary election on March 15 could fuel the rise of populist sentiment ahead of the French elections. While Eurozone fundamentals significantly improved in recent months (strong PMI surveys and a spike in headline inflation), tapering debate could resume and boost the euro if the ECB decide to revise its economic forecast during the March meeting.

� Mario Draghi downplayed an early tapering scenario from the ECB ahead of the French and German elections

� No political party wishes to build a coalition with the far-right candidate Geert Wilders, hence the low risk potential that he will become the next Dutch PM

� The Eurozone PMI survey almost reached a six year high, while headline inflation accelerated in January to its highest annualized pace since February 2013 at 1.8%. � GDP: 1.7%

� Inflation: 1.8% (annualized)

� Unemployment: 9.6%

� Trade Balance: €28.1Mds

� Policy rates: 0.0%

GBP/EUR (12 MTH)

1.09

1.16

1.23

1.30

F M A M J J A S O N D J F

MARCH2017 EVENTS

GUILLAUME DEJEAN, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA

Source: Reuters, 2017

Mar 15 Dutch parliamentary election

Mar 31 Flash inflation rate (March)

Mar 2 Flash Inflation rate (Feb) & Unemployment rate

Mar 9 - ECB rating decisionMar 9-10 - European Council

Mar 24 Flash PMI survey

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Mar 3 Retail sales

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CURRENCY OUTLOOKSWITZERLAND

ECONOMIC DATA

CHF

� Base Rate: -0.75%

� Annual GDP: 1.3%

� Annual CPI: 0.3%

� Unemployment: 3.3%

� Trade Balance: 4.7b (CHF)

GBP/CHF (12 MTH)

1.19

1.27

1.35

1.43

F M A M J J A S O N D J F

Febraury reviewWe have seen a slow and gradual decline in EURCHF, almost certainly a result of continuous intervention by SNB to keep the CHF from strengthening further. It has even been suggested that to find the extra liquidity needed they may have been active in the two separate markets, EURUSD and USDCHF, accounting for the resilience of the EUR that some find hard to explain. Overall, data has been as forecast, with another increase in reserves manifesting itself due to those Central Bank actions.

March risk events and key themesThe SNB meet the same day as the UK’s MPC and the Bank of Japan, and the day after the FOMC. The prospect of higher rates from the US may give some relief, although it may also trigger unwanted EUR weakness that requires more ongoing support in the market. With rates so far into negative territory already, it is hard to imagine the SNB cutting even further.

MARCH2017 EVENTS

JOHN MARLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA

Source: Reuters, 2017

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Mar 15 Federal Reserve meeting on Interest Rates & Monetary Policy

Mar 16 - SNB Rates and Monetary Policy - BoJ Rates and Monetary Policy - MPC Meeting on Interest Rates & Monetary Policy

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CURRENCY OUTLOOKAUSTRALIA

ECONOMIC DATA

AUDFebruary reviewThe Australian dollar continued higher in February boosted by a strong improvement in the Australian trade position. The Australian trade surplus was reported as the highest-ever in February at AUD3.5 billion thanks to rising commodity prices.

� The AUD climbed to three-month highs versus the USD but was troubled around the 0.77 level, a major trading zone that has hampered gains for more than a year

� The AUD saw strong gains versus other major currencies with the Aussie nearing four-year highs versus the euro and three-year highs against the British pound

� The jump in iron ore prices continued in February and these gains remain the key driver of the AUD’s strength. Iron ore gained 20% in the first two months of the year

March risk events and key themesLooking forward, markets are hoping for a significant improvement in Australia’s growth position after the September quarter saw a shock negative read.

An improvement in trade and business confidence should see the Australian economy return to growth.

� This month, the focus will be on December quarter GDP, due on 1 March. Last quarter saw a 0.5% fall

� The performance of commodity markets will be closely watched. In particular, iron ore has been driven by strong gains in the Chinese market. While physical demand has increased, so has speculative activity

� The new Reserve Bank of Australia governor, Philip Lowe, has recently indicated a growing concern about financial stability driven by the strong gains in the housing market. This makes further rate cuts less likely

� Base Rate: 1.50%

� Annual GDP: 1.80%

� Annual CPI: 1.50%

� Unemployment: 5.70%

� Trade Balance: 3.5b (AUD)

AUD/USD (12 MTH)

0.70

0.73

0.76

0.79

F M A M J J A S O N D J F

MARCH2017 EVENTSMar 6 Retail Sales

Mar 16 Employment

Mar 21 RBA Minutes

STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC

Source: Reuters, 2017

Mar 7 RBA Decision

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Mar 1 GDP

Mar 2 Trade Balance

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CURRENCY OUTLOOKJAPAN

ECONOMIC DATA � GDP: 1.0% (annualized)

� Inflation: 0.3% (annualized)

� Unemployment: 3.1%

� Trade Balance: ¥1087Mds

� Policy rates: -0.1%

GBP/JPY (12 MTH)

125

138

151

164

F M A M J J A S O N D J F

JPYMarch risk events and key themesThe Japanese currency continues to be driven by the worldwide political environment. The revival of optimism in the United States, and the relatively upbeat tone of the first meeting between the new US Government and Abe, dented the yen’s rally against the USD. Nevertheless, the temporary desynchronization of political risks between the US and Europe following the Eurosceptic manifesto of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, resulted in a new uptrend of the USD/JPY rate but anchored the EUR/JPY rate at a 2017 low.

� The USD/JPY hit a two-month lows on Feb 07 and tested the ¥111,6 technical support before recovering above ¥114

� The EUR/JPY returned to its ¥119.5 support level in late February on the back of French political concerns

What to expect in March 2017? Unsurprisingly the future of the yen will be linked to the risk-appetite of global investors in the current political climate. The USD/JPY story is strongly linked to the activities of the American government. The EUR/JPY rate looks shaky in the face of the upcoming French election, the official start of ‘Brexit’ and the Dutch parliamentary election scheduled for March 15.

� Markets will be waiting for the American tax reform plan in March. Few details have leaked so far

� The Dutch parliamentary election will be of interest to investors in the lead up to the French elections

� The BoJ signaled they did not intend to modify the “yield curve control” policy because of a rise of global interest rates

MARCH2017 EVENTS

GUILLAUME DEJEAN, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA

Source: Reuters, 2017

Mar 3 Inflation rate

Mar 16 BoJ decision rate

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Mar 8 Final Q4 2016 GDP

Mar 10 Q1 Tankan Survey

Mar 15 Dutch parliamentary election & Fed rate decision

Mar 29 Unemployment rate / Retail sales

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CURRENCY OUTLOOKCHINA

ECONOMIC DATA

February reviewThe Chinese currency has recently strengthened after falling at the start of the year to the lowest level versus the US dollar since 2008. The CNY’s losses have recently abated as the Chinese government looks to control the weight of CNY selling.

� The Chinese government has stipulated that international banks balance FX flows and restricted large corporate investments

� The CNY has seen volumes collapse as the Chinese government attempts to curb speculative activity and capital outflows

� The CNY has also seen gains versus other currencies, with the largest improvement against the euro and Japanese yen

March risk events and key themesThe FX oversight measures introduced by China have halted the CNY’s depreciation but the effects might only be temporary. This month, focus will remain on the CNY. Any move from the US Federal Reserve to indicate it plans to soon raise rates could see the CNY heavily sold against the US dollar.

� Most activity indexes have improved over the last six months. The Chinese government has boosted growth via new loans. There are growing concerns about the growth of leverage

� Inflation continues to run hot. The most recent producer prices reading climbed to the highest level in five years. Further gains in inflation could complicate the POBC’s management of the Chinese economy

� The new US administration remains focused on the Chinese currency with increasing speculation that US Congress might name China as a “currency manipulator” over the course of the month

� Base Rate: 4.35%

� Annual GDP: 6.80%

� Annual CPI: 2.50%

� Unemployment: 2.50%

� Trade Balance: 51.4b (USD)

USD/CNY (12 MTH)

CNY6.44

6.58

6.72

6.86

F M A M J J A S O N D J F

MARCH2017 EVENTS

Mar 9 CPI

Mar 14 - Retail Sales - Industrial Output

STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC

Source: Reuters, 2017

Mar 1 Manufacturing PMI

Mar 8 Trade Balance

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

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CURRENCY OUTLOOKNEW ZEALAND

ECONOMIC DATA

NZDFebruary reviewThe NZDUSD was weaker last month as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s most recent policy statement hit confidence. The RBNZ kept rates on hold and indicated that while it was more positive on the inflation outlook it was unlikely to move rates in the near term.

� The RBNZ’s news saw NZD lower versus most currencies with the largest losses against the US and Australian dollars

� The RBNZ upgraded its expectations for the official interest rates with the bank now expecting the next move to be higher. However, the RBNZ said it’s unlikely to move before 2019

� The NZD was also hit by the RBNZ’s warning that the local currency was too high and that current levels were unsustainable for “moderate” growth

March risk events and key themesThe sharp rise in NZ inflation was the key shift for the NZD over the last month and sustained gains will have a major effect on interest rate expectations.

� The rise in inflation has seen interest rate markets turn. The bond market now expects a rate hike by November 2018

� The NZD remains buoyant versus low yielding currencies like the euro, Japanese yen and Swiss franc. However, any move to raise rates by the US Federal Reserve could trigger a reversal in this trend

� Most market analysts expect the NZDUSD to fall over the next year. The latest forecast poll from Reuters, published on 7 February 2017, found the median 12-month forecast for NZDUSD is 0.6900

� Base Rate: 1.75%

� Annual GDP: 3.50%

� Annual CPI: 1.30%

� Unemployment: 5.20%

� Trade Balance: -3.2b (NZD)

NZD/USD (12 MTH)

0.65

0.68

0.71

0.74

F M A M J J A S O N D J F

MARCH2017 EVENTSMar 8 Dairy Prices

Mar 22 Dairy Prices

STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC

Source: Reuters, 2017

Mar 5 Building Consents

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Mar 1 Terms of Trade

Mar 15 Current Account

Mar 24 Trade Balance

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CURRENCY OUTLOOKSINGAPORE

ECONOMIC DATA

February reviewThe Singapore dollar continued to hold steady in February after losing ground substantially in the later part of 2016.

An improvement in global economic indicators and an easing in the US dollar were the main reasons for the SGD’s support.

� The USD eased as markets worried about the detail of the US administration’s tax package. This saw the USDSGD fall to three-month lows during the month

� The ongoing weakness in low-yielding currencies saw both the Japanese yen and euro weaker. The euro fell to six-month lows versus the Singapore dollar

� The SGD’s relative strength saw the local currency rise to all-time highs versus the Malaysian ringgit

March risk events and key themesA pick-up in inflation and growth in Singapore has helped the island-state’s economy but it remains below capacity. From this perspective, April’s meeting of the Monetary Authority of Singapore will be critical.

� The recent improvement in commodity prices, especially oil, has helped the Singapore dollar. Commodity prices will be closely watched

� The meeting of the US Federal Reserve, due on 16 March, will be critical. Any indication of impending rate hike could see the US dollar stronger and the SGD weaker

� The Monetary Authority of Singapore is next scheduled to meet in mid-April. With inflation still below target, there remains the potential for an SGD devaluation

� SIBOR: 0.97%

� Annual GDP: 2.90%

� Annual CPI: 0.20%

� Unemployment: 1.80%

� Trade Balance: 1.4b (SGD)

USD/SGD (12 MTH)

SGD1.33

1.38

1.43

1.48

F M A M J J A S O N D J F

MARCH2017 EVENTS

STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC

Source: Reuters, 2017

Mar 10 Retail Sales

Mar 3 Manufacturing PMI

Mar 23 CPI

Mar 17 Exports

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

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ECONOMIC DATA � Annual GDP: 2.38%

� Inflation: 4.20%

� Unemployment: 3.4%

� Trade Balance: $28MM

� Policy Rates: 6.25%

USD/MXN (12 MTH)

17.0

18.25

19.5

20.75

22.0

F M A M J J A S O N D J F

Source: Reuters, 2017

CURRENCY OUTLOOKMEXICO

Febraury reviewThe peso bolstered to back below 20 against the mighty greenback for the first time since the U.S. presidential election this month. This stemmed from three factors. First, Banxico (Mexico’s Central Bank) hiked its keystone rate by 50 basis points. Secondly, the FX commission proposed a strong currency hedge program valued at $20 billion U.S. dollars. The last major factor was a softening tone from the U.S. presidential administration regarding NAFTA negotiations. The latter is in stark contrast to early concerns, which allowed for the dramatic shift of nearly 5% to date against the U.S. dollar.

� Banxico pumps up rates by half a percent

� FX commission announces major currency hedging program

� U.S. softens anti-NAFTA rhetoric

March risk events and key themesThe same factors that affected the peso in February will continue to be in the driver’s seat for March. The U.S. President has his State of the Union address, various pieces of economic data will be released, the FX commission’s currency hedging program and its efficacy will be colored, and Banxico meets on the 30th. If March is anything like the preceding 3 months, we could see some big swings, particularly against the U.S. dollar.

� U.S. – Mexico relations in focus

� Currency Hedging program in action

� Banxico meets at the end of the month

MARCH2017 EVENTS

JOSEPH BRUCKER, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EMERGING MARKETSMXN

Mar 6 Consumer Confidence

Mar 30 Banxico Meeting

Mar 9 Inflation

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Mar 1 - Remittances - Quarterly Inflation

Mar 3 Gross Fixed Investment

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CURRENCY OUTLOOKBRAZIL

ECONOMIC DATA

February reviewThe real gained over 3% against the dollar, reaching its lowest rate in nearly 2 years this month. This was fueled by two major factors: COPOM (Brazilian Central Bank) dovishness, and a potentially friendlier U.S. presidential administration than anticipated. The COPOM cut the primary SELIC rate by 75 basis points to 12.25%, with increasing room for more dovishness.

In the accompanying thoughts and justification, COPOM cited favorable inflation figures and potentially slower economic activity. They also left the door open to more rate cuts this year, and more often. The U.S. executive branch also bolstered the real, as speculation over weak-dollar policies and a potential more importer-friendly approach was substantiated by various statements and leaks throughout the month.

� The Brazilian real appreciated to 20-month lows against the greenback

� The main rate was cut by 75 basis points

� Trade partner political uncertainty slightly softened fears

March risk events and key themesThe next expected rate cut is in April by 75 basis points, and any big news in March could corroborate or derail those expectations. The COPOM has stated that inflation and supply shocks, particularly in consumer goods such as food, color the aggressiveness of the rate cut depth and pace of 2017. Banks seem to have a consensus that inflation will converge with its target, and the risk of food supply shocks are minimal. As such, the widespread consensus is that Brazil will see increasingly aggressive rate cuts throughout 2017.

� The market is expecting a 75-basis point cut in April

� Inflation reports will be flashpoints

� Elucidated trade policy could steer further USDBRL price shifts

� Annual GDP: 1.82%

� Inflation: 5.35% (annualized)

� Unemployment: 12.4%

� Trade Balance: 2.7b (USD)

� Policy Rates: 12.25%

USD/BRL (12 MTH)

BRL3.00

3.25

3.50

4.00

3.75

F M A M J J A S O N D J F

MARCH2017 EVENTS

JOSEPH BRUCKER, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EMERGING MARKETS

Source: Reuters, 2016

Mar 10 Retail Sales

Mar 3 Manufacturing PMI

Mar 23 CPI

Mar 17 Exports

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

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WUBS is a licensed money service operator under the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing (Financial Institutions) Ordinance (Chapter 615, the Laws of Hong Kong). WUBS is also licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong to conduct Type 3 (leveraged foreign exchange trading) regulated activity.

Risk Disclosure Statements

1. The risk of loss in leveraged foreign exchange trading can be substantial. You may sustain losses in excess of your initial margin funds. Placing contingent orders, such as “stop loss” or “stop limit” orders will not necessarily limit losses to the intended amounts. Market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. You may be called upon at short notice to deposit additional margin funds. If the required funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated. You will remain liable for any resulting deficit in your account. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable in light of your own financial position and investment objectives.

2. Client assets received or held by WUBS or a WUBS group company outside Hong  Kong are subject to the applicable laws and regulations of the relevant overseas jurisdiction which may be different from the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571) and the rules made thereunder. Consequently, such client assets may not enjoy the same protection as that conferred on client assets received or held in Hong Kong.

New Zealand

Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company. In New Zealand, Western Union Business Solutions (Australia) Pty Ltd, NZ branch (company number 3527631 and FSP 168204) (“WUBS”) is the issuer of the financial products (if any) referred to in this communication. A Product Disclosure Statement is available for each of the financial products that WUBS issues and can be obtained by visiting http://business.westernunion.co.nz/about/compliance/.

Any advice provide in this communication is class (general) advice only and does not take account of your financial situation, objectives and/or needs. Because of this, before you act on it (including making any decisions and/or trading) you should consider its appropriateness having regard to your own objectives, financial situation and/or needs. WUBS recommends that you seek personalised (personal) financial advice from an authorised financial adviser.

SingaporeIn Singapore, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company. Depending on the nature and scope of the services, services in Singapore are provided by Western Union Business Solutions (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“WUBS Singapore”) and/or WUBS Financial Services (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“WUBS FS Singapore”) (collectively referred to as “WUBS”).

WUBS FS Singapore is a capital markets services licence holder for leveraged foreign exchange trading, and an exempt financial adviser for advising others, either directly or indirectly through publications or writings, and whether in electronic, print or other form, concerning contracts or arrangements for the purposes of foreign exchange trading and leveraged foreign exchange trading (other than advising others by issuing or promulgating research analyses or research reports, whether in electronic, print or other form, concerning any investment product and advising on corporate finance within the meaning of the Securities and Futures Act, Cap 289 (“SFA”).

WUBS Singapore is a remittances licence holder. All payment and remittance services referred to in this communication are offered under WUBS Singapore’s Remittance Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”). WUBS Singapore’s service does not include any service under the Payment Systems (Oversight) Act 2006.

WUBS is not licensed, registered or authorised, or hold themselves out to be licensed, registered or authorised to conduct any regulated activities under the SFA, financial advisory services under the Financial Advisers Act, Cap 110, money changing business and remittance business under the Money-Changing and Remittance Business Act, Cap 187, and any other financial services or activities subject to regulatory supervisions by the MAS or any other authority in Singapore, save in respect of the specific activities described above for which each entity holds a licence or an exemption to conduct such specific activities.

DISCLAIMERS

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NORTH AMERICACanada

In Canada, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company. Services in Canada are provided by Custom House ULC, a company within the Western Union Business Solutions division.

USA

In USA, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company. Services in the US are provided by Custom House USA, LLC (NMLS ID: 906985) and Western Union Business Solutions (USA), LLC (NMLS ID: 907333) (collectively referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”). For a complete listing of US state licensing, visit http://business.westernunion.com/about/notices/. For additional information about Custom House USA, LLC and Western Union Business Solutions (USA), LLC, visit http://business.westernunion.com/about/compliance/.

EUROPEAustria

In Austria, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union Company and provides services in Austria through Western Union’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Western Union International Bank GmbH (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).

Western Union International Bank GmbH is registered in Austria (company number FN256184t), Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.

Czech Republic

In the Czech Republic, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company and provides services in the Czech Republic through Western Union International Bank GmbH, organizační složka (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).

Western Union International Bank GmbH, organizační složka is registered in the Czech Commercial Register held by the Municipal Court in Prague, identification number 015 55 332, has a registered place of business at Václavské náměstí 62, 110 00 Prague 1, Czech Republic, and is a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH (registration number 256184t) Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.

Western Union International Bank GmbH is a bank registered on a list of banks maintained by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (Finanzmarktaufsicht). Western Union International Bank GmbH, organizační složka is registered on a list of banks and branches of foreign banks maintained by the Czech National Bank.

France

In France, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company and provides services in France through its wholly-owned subsidiary Western Union International Bank GmbH, French branch, (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).

Western Union International Bank GmbH, French branch (RCS Nanterre 750 938 094) has a registered place of business at Tour Manhattan, 5-6 place de l’Iris, 92095 Paris La Défense Cedex, France and is a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH (Registration Number 256184t), an Austrian company whose regsistered office is at Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.

Germany

In Germany, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union Company and provides services in Germany through Western Union’s wholly-owned subsidiary Western Union International Bank GmbH, Germany branch (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).

Western Union International Bank GmbH, Germany branch, has a registered place of business at Solmsstrasse 18, 60486 Frankfurt am Main, Germany and is a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH (registered in Austria, Registration Number 256184t, Regsistered Office address: Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria).

Italy

In Italy, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union Company and provides services in Italy through its wholly owned subsidiaries, Western Union International Bank GmbH, Italy Branch and Custom House Financial (UK) Limited (which does business under the trade name of Western Union Business Solutions).

Custom House Financial (UK) Limited offers the Online Foreign Exchange service (online FX); all other services are offered by Western Union International Bank GmbH, Italy branch.

Western Union International Bank GmbH, Italy Branch (Registered Office in Rome: via Virigilio Maroso 50, 00142 Italy; Fiscal Code and Companies House Registration number: 13068651002; Enrolled in the Bank Register held by Bank of Italy (no. 3446)), is a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH, a company organised under Austrian Law (Companies House Registration number 256184t; Registered Office: Schubertring 11, A-1010 Vienna, Austria; Corporate Capital: €12.000.000; Sole Shareholder (and therefore subject to the direction and coordination activity of): Western Union Overseas Limited) and which is a bank registered on a list of banks maintained by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (Österreichische Finanzmarktaufsicht).

Custom House Financial (UK) Limited (Incorporated in England; Company Number: 04380026; Registered Office: 12 Appold Street, London EC2A 2AW; Corporate Capital £800,001.00; Sole Shareholder (and therefore subject to the direction and coordination activity of): Western Union Processing Limited), is authorised by the UK Financial Conduct Authority under the payment services regulations 2009 (register reference: 517165) for the provision of payment services

Malta

In Malta, Western Union Business Solutions is an operating division of The Western Union Company. Services in Malta are provided by Western Union Business Solutions (Malta) Limited, a limited company registered in Malta (Company Number C22339) with its registered office at Il-Piazzetta, Tower Road, Sliema, SLM 1605, Malta and which is licensed and regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority to undertake the business of financial services in terms of the Financial Institutions Act) (“WUBS”).

Poland

In Poland, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company and provides services in Poland through Western Union International Bank GmbH, Polish Branch (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).

Western Union International Bank GmbH, Polish Branch (KRS No: 0000458059, NIP No: 1080015316), has a registered place of business at Al. Jana Pawla II 29, 00-867 Warsaw, Poland, and is a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH (registration number 256184t) Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.

Switzerland

In Switzerland, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company. Services in Switzerland are provided by Rüesch International, LLC (Swiss branch), with a registered place of business at Werdstrasse 2, P.O. Box 2063, 8021 Zurich, Switzerland (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).

Western Union Business Solutions has based the opinions expressed herein on information generally available to the public. Western Union Business Solutions makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of this information and specifically disclaims any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from trading decisions based on the opinions expressed and information contained herein. Such information and opinions are for general information only and are not intended to present advice with respect to matters reviewed and commented upon.

United Kingdom

In the UK, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company. Services in the UK are provided by Custom House Financial (UK) Limited (which does business under the trade name of Western Union Business Solutions) or Western Union Business Solutions (UK) Limited (collectively referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).

Custom House Financial (UK) Limited (registered in England, Company Number 04380026, Registered Office Address: 12 Appold Street, London EC2A 2AW) is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2009 (Register Reference: 517165) for the provision of payment services and is registered as an MSB with HM Revenue & Customs (Registered No: 12140130). Western Union Business Solutions (UK) Limited (registered in England, Company Number 02854737, Registered Office Address: 12 Appold Street, London, EC2A 2AW) is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2009 (Register Reference: 536611) for the provision of payment services and is registered as an MSB with HM Revenue & Customs (Registered No: 12122416).

DISCLAIMERS

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GLOBALOFFICES

United States Tel: 1 866 953 6491 business.westernunion.com

Canada Tel: 1 888 987 7612 business.westernunion.ca

United Kingdom Toll Free: 0800 096 1229 business.westernunion.co.uk

Australia Tel: +612 8001 2100 business.westernunion.com.au

Don’t let the currency market detract from your bottom line.Contact Western Union Business Solutions www.business.westernunion.com