Market Attributes: U.S. Equities November 2019 · Market Attributes U.S. Equities November 2019 KEY...

Market Attributes

U.S. Equities November 2019 KEY HIGHLIGHTS

• The S&P 500® was up 3.40% in November, bringing its YTD return to 25.30%.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average® gained 3.72% for the month and rose 20.25% YTD.

• The S&P MidCap 400® increased 2.80% for the month and was up 20.87% YTD.

• The S&P SmallCap 600® returned 2.92% in November and 17.58% YTD.

Exhibit 1: Index Returns

INDEX 1-MONTH (%) 3-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%)

S&P 500 3.40 7.33 25.30 13.80

Dow Jones Industrial Average 3.72 6.24 20.25 9.84

S&P MidCap 400 2.80 6.85 20.87 7.00

S&P SmallCap 600 2.92 8.14 17.58 3.17

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Nov. 29, 2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes. Returns shown are price returns.

MARKET SNAPSHOT

It was a month of giving thanks (which went well with the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday; the U.S.

significantly outperformed the global markets), as the November market continued where October’s two

new closing highs left off, by posting 11 of its own (out of the 20 trading days). Meanwhile, no one

dared impeach the market, although many still worried as to how long the closing highs (and bull

market) could go on. For the month, the S&P 500 posted a broad 3.40% return, after October’s 2.04%

gain and September’s 1.72% gain (August was down 1.81%). While market celebration was evident at

the bar, as shown by the willingness of patrons to buy a round (on the company card, of course), and

the verbiage was of a good year, with December known for its upside (up 72.5% of the time), the

underlying tone still included nervousness and caution. On the horizon were more political events, as

the impeachment proceeding continued; there has been little market impact to date, but as the process

advances, the impact was expected via reallocation and investments potentially being sidelined.

However, the key takeaway was that the S&P 500 was broadly up 25.30% YTD (27.63% with

dividends), a tick (0.40%) off its closing high, with all 11 sectors positive—Energy was on the low side,

with the only single-digit gain, up 1.72% (down 15.50% from the U.S. November 2016 election). As

long as trade issues continue to progress (slowly, with short-term ups and downs) and no one starts a

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Contributor:

Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst, Product Management, [email protected]

S&P Dow Jones Indices’ Market Attributes® series provides market commentary highlighting developments across various asset classes.

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U.S. Equities November 2019

MARKET ATTRIBUTES 2

profit-taking stampede, the year should end with a premium bottle of champagne. However, still talked

about by those who have not blocked it out their memory was December 2018, which declined 9.18%,

as 419 issues in the S&P 500 declined (432 issues were up YTD for 2019; 174 were up for 2018). At

this point, the celebration of gains continues, but the nervousness of the market is evident, as no one

wants to be the Turkey of Christmas Past, and protecting this year’s gain (25.30%; 26.63% with

dividends) may become an investment objective.

The U.S. House of Representatives launched an impeachment inquiry into the events surrounding

President Trump’s telephone conversation with Ukraine President Zelensky to determine if they should

proceed with impeachment against Trump. If so, a vote goes to the full House, with a majority needed

to impeach, and if passed, it goes to the full Senate, where a two-thirds vote is required to remove

Trump from office. In response, Trump called the proceedings “bullshit,” as he urged China and

Ukraine to investigate former U.S. Vice President under Obama Joe Biden, who is the leading

Democratic Party contender to run against Trump in the 2020 presidential election. The House of

Representatives first held closed-door hearings on impeachment, as it then had two weeks of open

hearings, with each side continuing to claim their victories.

U.S. Congress approved and the president signed a stopgap spending bill, which prevented a U.S.

government shutdown at midnight of that day. Congress also approved a bill supporting Hong Kong

Human Rights (verbal support, no legislative actions), and the president signed it. In continuing U.S.

and Chinese trade talks, a Chinese statement said there appeared to be a consensus to resolve the

issues holding up the phase-one trade deal (which helped the market).

In her first speech as ECB President, Christine Lagarde (in Berlin) signaled she was willing to work with

all sides, as she avoided the conflict of the ECB’s request for Germany to spend more of its surplus.

The Bank of England met and left interest rates unchanged (0.75%), with two of the nine members

voting to cut interest rates by 0.25%. U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared before the U.S.

Congress (Joint Economic Committee), saying interest rates appeared to be at the appropriate level,

which was interpreted by the market as meaning that the FOMC will not increase rates at its December

2019 meeting (the S&P 500 posted a new closing high that day), though Powell warned on the national

debt level. Fed Chair Powell met in the White House with President Trump and Treasury Secretary

Mnuchin, as Trump tweeted it was a “good & cordial meeting,” but he criticized the Fed for the relatively

high interest rate policy. The Fed Beige Book showed a slight uptick in the market ahead of the holiday

season.

Q3 2019 earnings estimates for S&P 500 issues have declined 1.9% since the start of Q3 and 9.6%

from year-end 2018; the quarter was expected to post a 0.2% decline over Q2 2019 and be 3.2% lower

than the record Q3 2018 level. As for the actual Q3 reports, 491 issues have reported, representing

97.2% of the issues and 96.6% of market value. Of those 491 issues, 368 beat on earnings (75.0%;

historically the average is two-thirds). On the sales front, 288 of the 491 reported issues (59.0%) have

beaten on sales (setting a new quarterly record).

Q4 earnings optimism continues, be it a tick lower; its estimate was reduced 4.1% from September

2019 and 10.6% from year-end 2018, and it was most recently forecasting a 1.1% gain over Q3 2019

and 15.6% over the depressed Q4 2018 (due to accounting changes and normal write downs), as it

remains shy of the record Q3 2018 result by 2.1% (Q2 2020 is expected to set a record). The forecast

for 2019 is 4.7% over 2018, with the 2020 election year dream being 11.4%. Typically, forward

estimates change in December, as analysts review the Q3 results and adjust target prices, but given


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 3

the environment and higher-level uncertainties, the change may be more specific issue and group

based than overall (we will monitor it). Share count impact to date continued, as 23.4% of the reported

issues had at least a 4% tailwind due to lower share counts (i.e., flat earnings in aggregate compared to

a 4% rise on an EPS basis), compared to Q2 2019’s 21.2% and Q3 2018’s 17.7%; the recent high was

28.2% in Q1 2016. Of note were the pre-Q4 2019 counts, which showed 15.0% of the issues already

have a 4% tailwind built in based on the actual Q3 2019 shares and the Q4 2018 comparisons (and that

is before any Q4 2019 buybacks).

The CEO of fast food issue McDonald’s (MCD) was dismissed after admitting to an improper

relationship with a subordinate. Branded performance apparel issue Under Armour (UA) said that it

was being investigated over accounting policies and then reported its fifth consecutive quarterly sales

decline for North America. Expedia (EXPE) declined 25.6% for the month, as it revealed difficulty with

internet competition and the ability of Google (owned by Alphabet) to send web traffic toward their own

sites. The remarks affected competitor TripAdvisor (TRIP), which declined 29.7% (-21.0% adjusting for

a dividend). Google parent Alphabet (GOOG/L) said it will offer checking accounts to consumers (run

by Citigroup; C). Chinese e-Commerce issue Alibaba (BABA) issued a secondary stock offering of

USD 13 billion in Hong Kong, which was oversubscribed. Brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD)

launched its spin off Hong Kong business, Budweiser Brewing APAC.

S&P Dow Jones Indices added cloud solutions issues ServiceNow (NOW) to the S&P 500, as it deleted

Celgene (CELG), which was acquired by Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY). S&P DJI also announced that it

would add S&P MidCap 400 insurance issue W.R. Berkley (WRB) to the S&P 500 before the opening

of business on Dec. 5, 2019, as it removes Viacom (VIAB), which is being acquired by CBS (CBS).

After cancelling its IPO (and letting some workers go), work sharing space issue We Company (owner

of WeWork) encountered liquidity issues, as SoftBank (SFTBY), which had owned a third of the

company, negotiated a USD 9.5 billion plan that included them taking control of the company and

adding funds, valuing the company at USD 8 billion—it had been valued at USD 47 billion. Later in the

month, WeWork let 2,400 of its 12,500 employees go.

The IPO prospectus of state-owned oil giant Aramco (ARMCO; producing 10% of the world’s oil) was

filed (658 pages) without pricing. The IPO value was set at USD 1.6 trillion to USD 1.71 trillion, down

from the USD 2 trillion hoped for by Saudi Arabia, as the IPO was expected to be for 1.5% of the

shares, placing the offering near the record IPO of USD 25 billion in 2014 by Alibaba. The shares will

be listed on the Saudi local exchange and not eligible for U.S. trading (note: the valuation would make

the issue the largest in the world, but based on what was available for shareholders, it would rank at

approximately 418 globally).

The U.S. government collected a record USD 7 billion in tariffs in September, up 9% from August and

up 59% year-over-year. While the “world” is starting to embrace (and battle over) 5G, China has

charged experts at institutes and universities to research 6G. Sales for Singles Day (Nov. 11, 2019) set

a record for Alibaba, topping USD 38 billion, up from last year’s (record) of USD 30.8 billion.


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 4

The 10-year U.S. Treasury closed at 1.78%, up from last month’s 1.69% (2.69% at year-end 2018 and

2.41% at year-end 2017). The 30-year U.S. Treasury closed at 2.20%, up from last month’s 2.18%

(3.02%, 3.05%). The pound closed at 1.2931 from 1.2928 last month (1.2754 for year-end 2018,

1.3498 for 2017, and 1.2345 for 2016); the euro was down to 1.1018 from last month’s 1.1154 (1.1461,

1.2000, 1.0520); the yen closed at 109.48 from last month’s 108.02 (109.58, 112.68, 117.00), and the

yuan closed at 7.0326 from last month’s 7.0387 (6.8785, 6.5030, 6.9448). Oil closed at USD 55.42, up

from last month’s USD 54.14 (USD 45.81 at year-end 2018, USD 60.09 for 2017, and USD 53.89 for

2016). U.S. gasoline pump prices decreased (EIA, all grades), closing the month at USD 2.672 from

last month’s USD 2.692 per gallon (USD 2.358, USD 2.589, USD 2.364). Gold was down, closing at

USD 1,470.40 from last month’s USD 1,515.40 (USD 1,284.70 for year-end 2018, USD 1,305.00 for

year-end 2017, and USD 1,152.00 for year-end 2016). VIX closed at 12.62, trading as high as 14.17

and as low as 11.42, down from 13.22 last month (16.12 at year-end 2018, 11.05 at year-end 2017,

and 14.04 at year-end 2016).

INDEX REVIEW

S&P 500

The S&P 500 closed at 3,140.98, up 3.40% (3.63% with dividends) from last month's 3,037.56 close,

when it was up 2.04% (2.17%). For the three-month period, the S&P 500 was up 7.33% (7.86% with

dividends), as its YTD return was up 25.30% (27.63%) and the one-year period was up 13.80%

(16.11% with dividends; note: December 2018 was down 9.18%, so once the stats move past that, the

returns will jump). The Dow® closed at 28,051.41, up 3.72% (4.11% with dividends) from last month's

27,071.40, when it was up 0.57% (0.84%). The Dow posted a 6.24% gain for three-month period

(6.87% with dividends), its YTD return was up 20.25% (23.05%), and its one-year return was 9.84%

(12.48%; similar to the S&P 500, The Dow declined 8.66% in December 2018). Intraday volatility (daily

high/low) decreased to 0.49% from last month’s 0.86% (0.79% the month before that), the lowest

monthly level since November 2017 (0.48%), as the YTD return was 0.88% (0.91% last month); the

level in 2018 was 1.21% and the level in 2017 was 0.51% (which was the low since 1962, with the

average at 1.43%). S&P 500 trading increased 10% (adjusted for trading days) over the past month,

after the prior month’s 9% decrease; year-over-year trading volume was 5% lower than the same

period last year. There were no days of 1% moves, compared with 5 days last month (2 up and 3

down) for the 20 trading days (20 last month); year-to-date, 37 of 231 days posted moves of 1%, with

22 up and 15 down. None of the 20 days had a high/low intraday spread of at least 1%, compared with

7 of 20 last month (YTD 71 of 231, 2018 was 110 of 251).

Sector variance increased, as 9 of the 11 sectors gained (9 gained last month and 10 the month before

that). The spread between the best (Health Care, 4.81%) and worst (Utilities, -2.28%) sectors for the

month was 7.09% (the one-year average was 7.20%), up from last month’s 5.32%; year-to-date, the

spread was 35.65% (29.57% last month). For November, earnings and trade talks ruled the markets,

as U.S. politics (impeachment) ruled the airwaves, print, and social media (with earnings almost done,

politics are expected to step in). For the month, Information Technology did the best, adding 5.16%

after last month’s 3.81% gain, as the sector was up 41.78% YTD. Of note (leading the pack) were the

two largest publicly traded issues in the world, Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (APPL), which were up

5.6% and 7.4% for the month and 49.0% and 69.4% YTD, respectively. Together, the two issues

accounted for 14.4% of the S&P 500’s total return YTD. Health Care, which was last month’s leader

(up 5.00%), added another 4.85%, as depressed prices, partially due to the political talk surrounding


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 5

Medicare for All and drug prices, were overtaken by the risk-on market mood; the sector was up a

subpar 14.73% YTD. Financials was close behind, adding 4.83%, as interest rates declined and the

market accepted the current levels, with the Fed expected to keep rates unchanged for its December

2019 meeting; year-to-date, the sector was up 26.03%. Communication Services added 3.74% and

was up 28.43% YTD. Utilities did the worst, falling 2.30% (up 18.52% YTD), with Real Estate down

1.97% (23.95% YTD), as the risk-on environment worked against them (selling due to reallocations).

Consumer stocks underperformed (again, but they were positive), as Consumer Staples added 1.08%

and was up 21.50% YTD, and Consumer Discretionary gained 1.14% and was up 22.94% YTD.

Breadth increased, with gainers outnumbering decliners 5-to-2, as 366 issues gained, with an average

increase of 5.97%, up from last month’s 290 gainers (5.54% average) and the same as the prior

month’s 366 gainers. Gains of 10% or more increased to 58 issues (with an average gain of 14.63%

each) from last month’s 44 and from the prior month’s 46; 3 issues gained at least 25% (4 did last

month). On the down side, 139 issues fell an average of 4.06% each, down from last month’s 214

decliners and the same as the 139 the month before that. Eight issues fell at least 10% (-18.11%),

down from last month’s 3 and 22 the month before; 2 declined at least 25% (1 did so last month). For

the three-month period, 375 (280 last month) issues were up, with 198 (81) of them up at least 10%, as

130 (225) were down, with 24 (65) of them down at least 10%. Year-to-date, 432 issues were up (419

last month), with an average gain of 29.99%, as 370 (357) were up at least 10% and 237 (197) were up

at least 25%, while 68 (81) were down an average of 14.90%, with 37 (46) down at least 10% and 17

(15) down at least 25%.

The Dow

The Dow led this month, as it broke past the 28,000 mark for the first time (no new hats yet, but 30K is

close to the one-year bottom-up target price of 29,746). The index posted 11 new closing highs, a

1,005 point gain, and the best monthly return of the headline indices. For November, The Dow closed

at 28,051.41, up 3.72% (4.11% with dividends) from last month’s 27,046.23 close, when it was up

0.48% (0.59% with dividends). For the three-month period, the index posted a 6.24% gain (6.87% with

dividends), which trailed the other indices. Year-to-date, the gain was up 20.25%, and the one-year

period was up 9.84% (stat note: the one-year period includes December 2018, when The Dow fell

8.66%, so next month’s return, absent a meltdown, should post a significant jump). Over the longer

term, the two-year return was up 15.57%, the three-year period increased 46.89%, and the five-year

return was 57.34% (with the three- and five-year returns beating the S&P 500).

For the month, 24 of the 30 issues gained, with an average gain of 4.54%, up from last month’s 17

(average gain of 5.12%) and up from September’s 23. On the down side, 6 issues declined (average

loss of 2.67%), down from 13 last month (and 7 the month before that). Two of the issues gained at

least 10% (average 13.71%), as two did for the last two months, with none declining at least 10%,

compared to two last month. For the three-month period, 21 issues were up, with an average gain of

11.42%, up from last month’s 18 gainers (average gain of 5.81%), and down from the 17 in the prior

month; 10 were up at least 10% (2 last month). On the down side, 9 issues declined (an average loss

of 3.24%), down from 12 last month, as 1 declined at least 10% (-10.78%), the same as last month.

Year-to-date, breadth remained strongly positive, as 25 of the 30 issues were up, an average gain of

24.11%, the same as last month (and 24 the month before that). There were 20 issues that gained at

least 10%, up an average 28.36%, compared to 17 last month (19 the month before that), as 12 were

up at least 25%, compared to 9 last month. On the down side, four issues were down, an average


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 6

decrease of 8.88% each, also the same as last month, as three were down at least 10% (average

decline of 11.81% each), the same as last month, as no issue was down at least 25% (none last

month).

Issue performance continued to vary but decreased for the month, as earnings and guidance continued

to direct stocks (as risk became more acceptable). The spread between the best and worst issue

decreased to 22.67% from last month’s 28.14% (18.90% in September). The YTD spread continued to

be significant and rose to 82.20% from last month’s 77.53%, as the reason remained the same—Apple

was up 69.42% YTD (up 7.43% this month), as Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) was down 12.34%

(but up 8.80% this month). Since the U.S. November 2016 election, Boeing (BA) remained the best

performer, up 157.51% (up 7.73% this month), followed by Microsoft at 150.34% and Apple at

140.64%, with Walgreens last, down 25.58%. On an issue basis, entertainment issue Walt Disney

(DIS) did the best for the month, up 16.67% and up 38.24% YTD, as healthcare issue UnitedHealth

Group (UNH) continued its rebound, adding 10.75% for the month after last month’s 16.28% gain, with

a YTD gain of 12.34% (still subpar, but it was negative two months ago). Of note, even as The Dow is

price weighted, the two largest publicly traded in issues in the world, Microsoft and Apple have posted

49.04% and 69.42% stock returns this year, respectively, and they accounted for over 20% of The

Dow’s gain YTD.

S&P MidCap 400

The S&P MidCap 400 posted its third month of gains, posting a 2.80% increase after last month’s

1.03% and the prior month’s 2.90% gain. The index’s three-month return moved past August’s 4.35%

decline to post a 6.85% gain. While the returns are good, performance is relative, as both periods

trailed the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600. Year-to-date, the index posted a 20.87% gain, as the

one-year return was 7.00% (outpacing the S&P SmallCap 600, but trailing the S&P 500). Over the

longer-term periods, the two-year gain was 5.84%, with the three-year period up 23.21% and the five-

year period up 39.34% (all of which underperformed the S&P 500).

Of the 11 sectors, 8 gained for the month, the same as last month and down from 9 the month before

that. Sector spreads significantly increased for the month, as the difference between the best and

worst groups increased to 16.03% from last month’s 4.60% (8.52% the month before that). The YTD

spread remained significant, widening to 66.96% from last month’s 55.18%. The one-year spread was

mostly flat at 69.06% (68.44% last month). The root of the large spread remains Energy, as it was

down 45.96% over the one-year period, compared with Information Technology, which was up 23.10%

over the same period.

For November, issues continued to react to earnings, guidance, lower interest rates, and trade issues,

as the overall tone was up and more optimistic. Health Care did the best, adding 8.80% for the month

and up 20.11% YTD. Information Technology was a far second, as it posted a respectable 4.70% and

was up 36.37% YTD (the best in the index). Industrials was close behind, up 4.18% for the month and

up 30.06% YTD. Energy was the big decliner, off 7.53% and down 30.59% YTD. Income sectors

Utilities and Real Estate both declined, as risk was more acceptable, falling 4.36% and 1.22%,

respectively, but they were up 6.89% and 18.20% YTD, respectively. Consumer stocks were up but

underperformed, as Consumer Staples added 1.33% (up 8.02% YTD), while Consumer Discretionary

gained 2.39% for the month (and was up 21.36% YTD). Financials added 3.26% and was up 21.31%

YTD.


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 7

Breadth improved for the month, as 288 issues gained an average of 6.33% each, up from last month’s

220 gainers (up an average of 6.20% each), while 111 issues declined, with an average loss of 6.82%,

down from last month’s 180 decliners (average loss of 5.69%). There were 56 issues that gained at

least 10% (an average gain of 16.49%), compared to 45 last month (64 the month before), as 23 issues

declined at least 10%, with an average loss of 19.26%, up from last month’s 25 (13 the month before

that). Significant gains of at least 25% saw seven issues do so (three did so last month), as six issues

fell at least 25%, compared to three last month. For the three-month period, 292 issues were up (200

last month), with 108 down (199), as 172 (81) were up at least 10% and 41 (86) were down at 10%; 38

(12) were up 25% and 7 (22) were down at least 25%. Year-to-date, breadth increased, as 311 (301

last month) issues gained (average 33.48%) and 89 (98) were down (-21.57%), with 271 (252) up at

least 10% (37.60%) and 60 (66 last month) down at least 10% (-29.64%), while 25% gains were

reported for 175 (142) issues, up an average 48.72%, with 30 (27) reporting a loss of at least 25%

(-42.23%).

S&P SmallCap 600

The S&P SmallCap 600 continued its upward moves, adding 2.92% this month after last month’s 1.86%

return and September’s 3.15% increase (August was down 4.64%), leaving it up 8.14% for the three-

month-period, the best of the core indices. Year-to-date, however, the 17.58% gain ranked last, as did

the one-year return of 3.17%, the two-year gain of 5.36%, and the three-year 22.35% gain. Small-cap

advocates continue to point to cycles (small-cap issues have outperformed over the past 10 years) and

depressed prices, with the current returns helping their argument, but to date, there has been limited

bottom fishing, with limited support from buying. This month, the large-cap indices dominated, as

headlines of new highs appeared to draw in investors. Concern, however, remains high on the Street,

and small-cap believers say if small-cap issues can hold their ground (positive returns and relatively

higher performance), their arguments will be listened to more, with the key being to change investors’

expectations of the group (if they believe it is coming, they will buy).

Sector variance decreased, as the difference between the best and worst sector decreased to 14.33%

from last month’s 17.45% (September was 13.60%). For the three-month period, it was 25.11%, down

from last month’s 35.01% (28.82% the month before that), as YTD variance increased to 64.97% from

last month’s jump to 61.21% (and from 44.76% the month before that). The one-year difference was

68.69% (74.39% last month), as Information Technology was up 21.87% and Energy was down a

devastating 46.82% (off 71.20% over the 10-year period, but up 43.51% from the end of 1999).

For November, seven sectors posted gains, down from eight last month and nine the month before that.

Health Care easily did the best, adding 10.31% for the month after last month’s 3.53% gain, posting a

20.33% year-to-date gain; for the one-year period it was up 0.99%, as the December 2018 16.07%

decline weighed it down (which will be out of the one-year period next month). Materials was a distant

second, as the sector gained 3.57% and was up 14.67% YTD. Consumer stocks did well, as

Consumer Discretionary added 2.97% and was up 13.48% YTD, while Consumer Staples gained

3.06% and was up 7.39% YTD. Utilities did the worst, falling 4.02% and up 16.90% YTD, as

Communication Services declined 3.85% and entered the red YTD, down 1.79%. The other sector in

the red YTD was Energy, which fell 0.99% for the month and was down 30.36% YTD.


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 8

For the month, breadth improved, as 383 issues gained, an average increase of 8.74% each, up from

last month’s 353 gainers (and down from 463 the month before that). On the down side, 215 issues fell

(an average loss of 7.65%), up from last month’s 244 (138 the month before that). Gains of at least

10% were posted by 118 issues (average 19.23%), compared to 100 last month, as 58 issues posted

declines of at least 10% (average -19.01%), compared with 81 last month. For the three-month period,

445 issues were up (average 18.99%) from last month’s 309, and 155 (-13.16%) declined, from last

month’s 290. Year-to-date, 403 (385 last month) were up (38.18%), 195 (212) were down (-25.84%),

as 338 (309) had at least a 10% gain (44.47%) and 146 (154) had at least a 10% fall (-32.76%).

Extreme changes of at least 25% YTD were posted by 289 (287 last month) issues, with 209 (199) up

at least 25% (average 61.45%) and 80 (88) down at least 25% (-45.71%). The significant issue

performance melds into the index, as returns remained positive, but many issues remained deeply in

the red.

S&P Global BMI

Global markets gained, supported by the U.S., as 27 of the 49 markets were up, down from 43 gainers

in October and 36 in September (3 in the fun month of August). Trade issues advanced, and central

banks continued to support. Overall, developed markets did better than emerging markets, as the U.S.

(54.0% of the global equity market) outperformed for November, after two months of underperforming.

November posted a 2.31% gain, after October’s 2.70% gain and September’s 1.88% gain (August

posted -2.68%). Absent the U.S.’s 3.57% gain, global markets were up 0.88% in November.

For the three-month period, global markets posted a 7.05% gain, as the gain absent the U.S.’s 7.32%

return was 6.77%. Year-to-date, global markets were up 19.58%, and absent the U.S.’s 25.04% gain,

they were up 13.60%. Longer term, the U.S. also dominated; for the one-year period, global markets

were up 10.78%, and absent the U.S.’s 13.19% gain, they were up 8.08%. The two-year global return

was 7.04% with the U.S. gain of 17.28% and -3.30% without it, and the three-year return was up

31.03% with the U.S. gain of 40.70%, and absent the U.S., it was up 20.94%.

For November, the S&P Global BMI increased USD 1,263 billion (up USD 1,471 billion last month).

Non-U.S. markets increased USD 225 billion (up USD 897 billion last month), and U.S. markets

increased USD 1,038 billion (up USD 574 last month). Emerging markets were up 0.08% for the month

and up 3.82% for the three-month period; the YTD return was up 9.23% and the one-year period was

up 6.18%. Developed markets were up 2.59% for the month (1.13% excluding the U.S), up 7.30%

(7.26%) for the three-month period, up 20.85% YTD (14.91%), and up 11.36% for the one-year period

(8.68%).

Sector variance increased, as 9 of the 11 sectors gained (9 gained last month and 10 the month before

that). The spread between the best (Health Care, 4.81%) and worst (Utilities, -2.28%) sectors for the

month was 7.09% (the one-year average was 7.20%), up from last month’s 5.32%; year-to-date, the

spread was 35.65% (29.57% last month).


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 9

Emerging markets posted a gain of 0.08%, after last month’s 3.85% gain and the prior month’s 1.16%

gain, as the three-month increase was 5.13%, the YTD return was up 9.23%, and the one-year period

was up 6.18%. The two-year return was down 4.73%, and the three-year return was up 21.57%. For

November, 11 of the 24 markets were up, down from 20 last month (and 14 the month before that).

Pakistan did the best, up 13.23% for the month but remaining in the red YTD, off 10.18%. Turkey was

next, adding 7.34% and up 9.07% YTD, followed by Kuwait, which was up 5.42% for the month and up

19.38% YTD. Chile again did the worst, as it fell 12.31% after last month’s 7.98% decline, and it was

down 26.07% YTD. Colombia followed, falling 5.24% and up 13.73% YTD, and Egypt was next, off

4.34% and up 22.55% YTD.

Developed markets posted a consolidated 2.59% gain for the month, while the return excluding the

U.S. was 1.13%. The three-month return was up 7.30% and up 7.26% excluding the U.S., the YTD

gain was 20.85% and 14.91% excluding the U.S., and the one-year return was 11.36% and 8.59%

excluding the U.S. The two-year return was 8.49% but -2.85% excluding the U.S., and the three-year

return was 32.21% and 20.89% excluding the U.S. For November, 16 of the 25 markets posted a gain,

down from last month’s 23 gainers and 22 the month before that (only 2 gained in August). New

Zealand did the best for the month, up 6.84% and up 24.12% YTD. Ireland was next, adding 5.03%

and up 24.55% YTD, followed by Israel, which gained 4.93% for the month and was up 19.42% YTD.

Hong Kong did the worst (as protests continued), declining 1.94% and up 0.96% YTD, with Korea next,

off 1.79% for the month and down 1.32% YTD, and Finland was after that, falling 1.59% and up 1.94%

YTD. Of note, Canada added 2.25% (up 21.76% YTD), Germany was up 1.96% (15.88% YTD), Japan

added 0.58% (14.48% YTD), and the UK increased 1.67% (11.88% YTD).


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 10

PERFORMANCE RECAP

Exhibit 2: Monthly Returns

S&P 500 PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)

Energy 431.37 1.10 1.72 -11.32 -20.80 -26.21 102.79

Materials 375.24 2.88 18.51 10.01 20.05 21.82 134.58

Industrials 688.72 4.14 27.03 13.30 28.41 41.10 151.93

Consumer Discretionary 960.79 1.13 22.94 12.56 48.14 69.02 221.01

Consumer Staples 634.09 1.08 21.50 10.00 22.69 25.19 204.78

Health Care 1148.69 4.85 14.73 4.73 45.01 42.93 251.52

Financials 498.96 4.83 26.03 11.60 33.93 52.12 55.09

Information Technology 1542.98 5.16 41.78 29.68 93.87 119.11 91.10

Communication Services 178.24 3.74 28.43 18.94 9.09 9.62 -44.78

Utilities 318.36 -2.30 18.52 13.41 34.97 36.86 123.51

Real Estate 238.43 -1.97 23.95 14.15 30.10 27.45 -

S&P 500 3140.98 3.40 25.30 13.80 42.85 51.92 113.78

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE

PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)

Dow Jones Industrial Average 28051.41 3.72 20.25 9.84 46.68 57.34 143.99

S&P MIDCAP 400 PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)

Energy 205.19 -7.53 -30.59 -45.96 -60.19 -70.23 16.94

Materials 463.28 2.67 15.76 3.96 6.96 24.50 317.49

Industrials 1121.17 4.18 30.06 13.92 35.34 61.05 529.81


Consumer Staples 1711.46 1.33 8.02 0.39 4.46 9.92 882.38

Health Care 2037.28 8.50 20.11 3.75 61.81 89.58 1051.56

Financials 1009.95 3.26 21.31 6.87 16.35 46.84 205.26


Communication Services 167.56 1.74 13.35 1.81 -31.42 -39.29 -64.58

Utilities 586.37 -4.36 6.97 2.25 24.34 39.89 323.31

Real Estate 241.74 -1.22 18.20 6.11 10.79 - -

S&P MidCap 400 2010.15 2.80 20.87 7.00 23.51 39.34 352.05

S&P SMALLCAP 600 PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)

Energy 223.02 -0.99 -30.36 -46.82 -69.82 -79.73 43.51

Materials 465.92 3.57 14.67 -0.98 -2.38 10.33 237.97

Industrials 1158.75 2.04 25.62 10.64 28.60 57.42 479.55


Consumer Staples 1781.76 3.06 7.39 -5.25 15.97 37.61 793.78

Health Care 3113.63 10.31 20.33 0.99 80.86 123.95 1619.86

Financials 1084.38 2.65 14.26 0.53 15.79 48.14 270.21


Communication Services 2.75 -3.85 -1.79 -16.41 0.73 13.56 -96.26

Utilities 1085.36 -4.02 16.90 7.92 33.54 72.42 478.24

Real Estate 209.80 -0.29 22.63 9.04 10.65 - -

S&P SmallCap 600 993.51 2.92 17.58 3.17 22.35 46.79 402.31




Exhibit 3: Total Returns

INDEX 1-MONTH (%) 3-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) 10-YEAR (%)

S&P 500 3.63 7.86 27.63 16.11 51.62 68.34 252.89

S&P MidCap 400 2.98 7.33 22.75 8.86 29.65 51.09 242.36

S&P SmallCap 600 3.06 8.58 19.22 4.83 27.71 57.65 269.31

S&P Composite 1500 3.57 7.84 27.08 15.31 49.28 66.93 253.70

Dow Jones Industrial Average 4.11 6.87 23.05 12.48 57.39 77.83 248.66

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Nov. 29, 2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.

Exhibit 4: S&P Global BMI, Emerging, Sorted by November Performance

BMI MEMBER 1-MONTH (%) 3-MONTH (%) 6-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%)

Global 2.31 7.05 10.76 19.58 10.78 31.03

Global Ex-U.S. 0.88 6.77 7.49 13.60 8.08 20.94

Emerging 0.08 5.13 3.82 9.23 6.18 21.57

Pakistan 13.23 28.78 -1.22 -10.18 -21.09 -60.40

Turkey 7.34 10.96 19.47 9.07 2.83 -15.66

Kuwait 5.42 1.06 4.35 19.38 19.10 50.07

China 1.43 5.09 6.03 10.35 3.60 23.13

Saudi Arabia 1.41 -3.31 -9.03 -0.59 1.19 15.44

Taiwan 1.01 11.78 15.05 20.94 18.82 30.96

Hungary 0.84 10.92 3.11 4.33 4.14 38.59

Greece 0.62 7.61 10.53 41.26 33.86 25.74

Russia 0.39 9.62 9.66 32.45 25.79 39.63

India 0.35 8.59 -2.03 4.91 5.31 33.58

South Africa 0.35 2.84 -3.09 -0.44 -1.71 1.43

Qatar -0.05 -1.04 -1.67 -5.39 -6.52 3.11

Peru -0.07 4.41 -1.19 -0.42 1.18 29.66

Thailand -0.40 -2.41 3.41 11.67 7.36 25.48

Czech Republic -0.44 0.38 -5.05 -5.89 -8.37 22.68

Malaysia -1.75 -1.54 -4.33 -4.91 -4.39 4.47

U.A.E. -1.89 -4.84 -2.45 -1.34 -1.06 -6.49

Mexico -2.49 4.29 1.84 5.19 8.26 -0.31

Philippines -3.19 -0.55 -1.07 6.69 8.03 8.93

Poland -3.58 2.25 -5.72 -8.64 -8.56 22.79

Brazil -4.04 3.72 3.40 12.23 9.89 32.34

Indonesia -4.12 -3.98 -1.02 0.05 0.82 10.60

Egypt -4.34 -3.75 4.71 22.55 21.02 40.11

Colombia -5.24 0.34 4.02 13.73 8.82 9.68

Chile -12.31 -16.12 -20.73 -26.07 -28.53 -17.44




Exhibit 5: S&P Global BMI, Developed, Sorted by November Performance

BMI MEMBER 1-MONTH (%) 3-MONTH (%) 6-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%)

Developed 2.59 7.30 11.61 20.85 11.36 32.21

Developed Ex-U.S. 1.13 7.26 8.59 14.91 8.68 20.89

New Zealand 6.84 8.22 11.24 24.12 21.34 39.82

Ireland 5.03 15.54 14.30 24.55 18.09 25.11

Israel 4.93 10.10 11.41 19.42 7.38 25.35

Denmark 4.49 7.65 11.12 19.39 15.83 40.31

United States 3.57 7.32 13.65 25.04 13.19 40.70

Netherlands 2.58 6.83 12.52 25.66 18.40 45.82

Canada 2.25 3.44 7.83 21.76 11.68 13.52

Italy 1.96 10.04 16.11 21.50 17.19 40.31

Germany 1.96 10.57 10.79 15.88 9.12 20.47

Sweden 1.79 11.51 13.39 16.85 12.82 22.40

United Kingdom 1.67 9.00 5.60 11.88 7.25 13.37

France 1.62 7.41 11.20 19.38 13.45 34.79

Switzerland 1.55 4.08 10.57 23.63 16.87 37.36

Belgium 0.82 0.88 9.07 19.66 8.96 4.22

Japan 0.58 8.98 11.68 14.48 6.24 21.23

Australia 0.38 3.55 4.19 16.49 11.90 16.63

Austria -0.11 8.15 7.58 13.30 2.15 34.93

Luxembourg -0.31 5.70 4.66 -13.80 -20.10 -18.76

Spain -0.33 5.08 1.13 5.08 0.42 12.54

Norway -0.47 2.90 -1.38 1.57 -6.70 11.84

Singapore -0.49 5.66 7.83 9.93 8.36 20.10

Portugal -0.75 6.28 4.89 8.94 6.21 22.98

Finland -1.59 3.69 3.33 1.94 -0.10 13.10

Korea -1.79 9.47 4.10 -1.32 -4.31 9.94

Hong Kong -1.94 1.01 -4.97 0.76 0.19 7.16




Exhibit 6: Price-to-Earnings Ratios

INDEX 2016 2017 2018 ESTIMATED 2019

S&P 500 21.07 21.47 20.72 19.79

S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary 19.45 22.29 24.12 24.77

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 20.99 21.50 21.60 21.18

S&P 500 Energy -158.88 40.17 14.09 20.49

S&P 500 Financials 16.25 17.45 15.97 12.27

S&P 500 Health Care 18.77 21.21 22.96 19.57

S&P 500 Industrials 19.88 21.06 18.40 18.98

S&P 500 Information Technology 21.27 21.87 24.22 24.00

S&P 500 Materials 23.99 22.06 17.39 21.24

S&P 500 Communication Services 17.91 16.31 15.13 20.90

S&P 500 Utilities 18.06 18.40 20.66 20.23

S&P 500 Real Estate 25.78 36.40 37.25 36.18


S&P MidCap 400 25.73 24.33 20.94 20.34



S&P 400 Energy -9.56 -263.86 -155.45 51.95

S&P 400 Financials 20.15 19.51 16.12 11.98

S&P 400 Health Care 26.19 30.96 34.31 24.87

S&P 400 Industrials 20.87 22.44 20.18 21.23


S&P 400 Materials 23.95 18.64 12.69 17.16

S&P 400 Communication Services 82.36 -12.96 23.14 25.35

S&P 400 Utilities 20.07 20.16 22.92 22.27

S&P 400 Real Estate 28.30 31.33 25.80 30.79


S&P SmallCap 600 32.73 30.02 25.45 25.67



S&P 600 Energy -6.44 -27.40 30.30 -14.98

S&P 600 Financials 21.61 19.29 17.82 14.86

S&P 600 Health Care 126.38 -513.58 202.97 119.76

S&P 600 Industrials 24.57 23.94 21.42 19.48


S&P 600 Materials 25.45 22.76 17.87 20.22

S&P 600 Communication Services 41.43 284.00 -275.00 -137.50

S&P 600 Utilities 23.24 26.50 27.88 29.49

S&P 600 Real Estate 29.05 33.24 48.56 39.44




Exhibit 7: Operating EPS Changes

INDEX Q4 2018

OVER Q4 2017 (%)

Q1 2019 OVER

Q1 2018 (%)

Q2 2019 OVER

Q2 2018 (%)

Q3 2019E OVER

Q3 2018 (%)

Q4 2019E OVER

Q4 2018 (%)

2018 OVER

2017 (%)

2019E OVER

2018 (%)

S&P 500 3.49 3.97% 3.86% -3.21% 15.62% 21.76% 4.67%

S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary 0.52 -0.87 -3.06 0.19 -6.93 13.05 -2.64

S&P 500 Consumer Staples -4.04 3.25 0.00 -1.28 6.59 7.47 2.01

S&P 500 Energy 214.68 -40.48 -17.87 -24.05 -41.21 130.40 -31.25

S&P 500 Financials -34.64 39.21 13.39 4.74 106.68 17.53 30.11

S&P 500 Health Care 7.36 16.79 18.49 2.44 32.63 10.98 17.33

S&P 500 Industrials 14.39 -5.49 -4.02 -2.24 -0.67 23.61 -3.10

S&P 500 Information Technology -0.87 -8.04 6.10 -5.63 10.86 25.93 0.91

S&P 500 Materials 20.45 -26.23 -23.38 -18.22 0.47 25.61 -18.12

S&P 500 Communication Services 11.86 -41.78 -45.13 -9.91 10.14 15.72 -27.59

S&P 500 Utilities -23.53 -7.42 -2.87 -1.36 35.47 6.06 2.14

S&P 500 Real Estate 28.99 -4.03 46.21 1.79 -25.28 14.29 2.97

INDEX Q4 2018

OVER Q4 2017 (%)

Q1 2019 OVER

Q1 2018 (%)

Q2 2019 OVER

Q2 2018 (%)

Q3 2019E OVER

Q3 2018 (%)

Q4 2019E OVER

Q4 2018 (%)

2018 OVER

2017 (%)

2019E OVER

2018 (%)

S&P MidCap 400 -4.89 8.25 1.24 -14.84 22.59 22.86 2.99

S&P 400 Consumer Discretionary 24.14 -19.54 -16.65 -22.53 -21.37 20.91 -20.20

S&P 400 Consumer Staples -4.69 -21.58 -7.32 -12.72 9.84 12.65 -9.15

S&P 400 Energy -81.69 -79.66 183.79 -1009.52 63.49 17.50 399.24

S&P 400 Financials -31.35 43.05 13.73 16.35 97.11 20.93 34.61

S&P 400 Health Care -88.81 62.85 3.08 -27.05 1216.67 15.01 37.97

S&P 400 Industrials 22.51 8.30 -5.83 -16.51 -1.77 21.63 -4.95

S&P 400 Information Technology 47.19 -5.38 -8.94 -17.82 23.88 32.16 -0.87

S&P 400 Materials 5.08 2.05 -28.23 -37.55 -33.96 32.87 -26.03

S&P 400 Communication Services 185.34 -24.73 21.38 -20.83 -3.68 163.62 -8.70

S&P 400 Utilities -17.91 7.49 -30.42 0.00 23.55 -2.25 2.93

S&P 400 Real Estate -36.25 -12.61 -29.70 -30.90 29.41 28.71 -16.22

INDEX Q4 2018

OVER Q4 2017 (%)

Q1 2019 OVER

Q1 2018 (%)

Q2 2019 OVER

Q2 2018 (%)

Q3 2019E OVER

Q3 2018 (%)

Q4 2019E OVER

Q4 2018 (%)

2018 OVER

2017 (%)

2019E OVER

2018 (%)

S&P SmallCap 600 15.62 -23.74 4.47 -10.24 24.77 25.17 -0.85

S&P 600 Consumer Discretionary 12.38 -9.92 -11.00 16.14 20.76 38.56 5.64

S&P 600 Consumer Staples -56.15 -43.99 5.62 172.04 108.44 -8.99 15.15

S&P 600 Energy 365.57 -6436.36 145.89 -420.25 -114.20 135.90 -302.31

S&P 600 Financials -37.73 9.61 -9.65 14.36 103.23 13.16 19.88

S&P 600 Health Care 70.99 -140.53 -75.75 1950.00 602.72 434.93 69.49

S&P 600 Industrials 18.50 2.28 13.06 11.62 10.68 22.26 9.95

S&P 600 Information Technology 1.61 -59.77 -24.49 -5.97 39.37 -1.95 -8.61

S&P 600 Materials -24.95 -13.55 -11.14 -23.00 11.41 12.23 -11.62

S&P 600 Communication Services 400.00 -100.00 150.00 -100.00 -66.67 - -100.00

S&P 600 Utilities -4.38 -26.38 -29.74 139.52 8.68 7.51 -5.45

S&P 600 Real Estate -102.94 34.85 58.06 -56.28 2700.00 -29.41 23.15




Exhibit 8: Breadth of Change (Issues with Monthly Price Changes as Described by Type)

S&P 500

TYPE NOVEMBER 2019 AVERAGE %

CHANGE 3-MONTH

AVERAGE % CHANGE

YTD AVERAGE %

CHANGE

Up 366 5.97 375 12.50 432 29.99

Down 139 -4.06 130 -6.13 68 -14.90

Up >= 10% 58 14.63 198 19.25 370 34.12

Down <= -10% 8 -18.11 24 -15.39 37 -24.09

Up >= 25% 3 30.89 37 32.44 237 43.03

Down <= -25% 2 -27.66 2 -26.38 17 -35.16

Up >= 50% 0 0.00 2 54.55 60 65.57

Down <= -50% 0 0.00 0 0.00 1 -59.60

S&P MIDCAP 400


CHANGE 3-MONTH

AVERAGE % CHANGE

YTD AVERAGE %

CHANGE

Up 288 6.33 292 14.20 311 33.48

Down 111 -6.82 108 -9.75 89 -21.57

Up >= 10% 56 16.49 172 20.31 271 37.60

Down <= -10% 23 -19.26 41 -18.42 60 -29.64

Up >= 25% 7 30.54 38 35.88 175 48.72

Down <= -25% 6 -33.48 7 -32.55 30 -42.23

Up >= 50% 0 0.00 4 59.06 64 69.97

Down <= -50% 1 -55.22 1 -58.33 9 -58.58

S&P SMALLCAP 600


CHANGE 3-MONTH

AVERAGE % CHANGE

YTD AVERAGE %

CHANGE

Up 383 8.74 445 18.99 403 38.18

Down 215 -7.65 155 -13.16 195 -25.84

Up >= 10% 118 19.23 283 27.05 338 44.47

Down <= -10% 58 -19.01 73 -22.94 146 -32.76

Up >= 25% 18 38.65 109 42.79 209 61.45

Down <= -25% 12 -34.66 23 -38.85 80 -45.71

Up >= 50% 2 71.35 25 71.47 104 87.39

Down <= -50% 3 -55.43 4 -64.16 26 -66.18

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE


CHANGE 3-MONTH

AVERAGE % CHANGE

YTD AVERAGE %

CHANGE

Up 24 4.54 21 11.42 25 24.11

Down 6 -2.67 9 -3.24 4 -8.88

Up >= 10% 2 13.71 10 18.82 20 28.36

Down <= -10% 0 0.00 1 -10.78 3 -11.81

Up >= 25% 0 0.00 2 26.61 12 37.04

Down <= -25% 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00

Up >= 50% 0 0.00 0 0.00 1 69.42

Down <= -50% 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00




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Market Attributes: U.S. Equities November 2019 · Market Attributes U.S. Equities November 2019 KEY...

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