MARKAL(Energy Planning and Management)

Rabin ShresthaVisiting Faculty

Pulchowk Campus, 2009

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MARKAL• MARKAL stands for Market Allocation

• Markal is a “bottom-up” energy-technology-environmental systems model

• Finds a least cost set of technologies to satisfy end-use energy service demands and user-specified constraints

• Calculates resulting environmental emissions

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Key MARKAL Features

• Provides a coherent and transparent framework

– Data assumptions are open and each result may be traced to its technological roots

• Is flexible (facilitates “What-If?” questions)

• Has a Long history (> 20 years) of widespread use (> 50 countries)

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MARKAL Objective• Identifies the least-cost pattern of resource use

and technology deployment over time

• Quantifies the sources of emissions from the associated energy system

• Quantifies the system-wide effects of changes in resource supply, technology availability, and energy and environmental policies

• Provides a framework for exploring and evaluating alternative futures, and the role of various technology and policy options

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MARKAL Application• What happens if a new technology becomes

available, or if an old one becomes cheaper or more efficient?

• What are the implications of a technology forcing policy (e.g., a renewable portfolio standard)?

• How do changes in technology, environmental policy, and resource availability/costs interact?

• How to identify cost-effective responses to restrictions on emissions

MARKAL Applications• How to perform prospective analysis of long-term

energy balances under different scenarios

• What is the effects of regulations, taxes, and subsidies on energy consumption and production, fuel switching

• How to project inventories of greenhouse gas emissions

• How to estimate the value of regional cooperation and energy trade between countries

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How MARKAL Works• Objective: Minimize aggregate system costs (

= capital + operating + fuel + those associated with environmental emissions)

• Subject to various constraints:

– System: energy balance, demands, electrical system operation

– User-imposed: emissions caps, technology portfolio standards, taxes, and subsidies

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How MARKAL Works…• Represents all energy producing,

transforming, and consuming processes as an interconnected network (Reference Energy System)

• Selects technologies to meet end-use service demands based on life-cycle costs of competing alternatives

• Enforces a systems perspective

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MARKAL's Four Stage Representation of an Energy

System

Industry, e.g.-Process steam-Motive power

Services, e.g.-Cooling-Lighting

Households, e.g.-Space heat-Refrigeration

Agriculture, e.g.-Water supply

Transport, e.g.-Person-km

Demand for Energy Service

Industry, e.g.-Steam boilers-Machinery

Services, e.g.-Air conditioners-Light bulbs

Households, e.g.-Space heaters-Refrigerators

Agriculture, e.g.-Irrigation pumps

Transport, e.g.-Gasoline Car-Fuel Cell Bus

End-UseTechnologies

ProcessTechnologies

Primary Energy Supply

Fuel processing Plants e.g.-Oil refineries-Hydrogen prod.-Ethanol prod.

Power plants e.g.-Conventional Fossil Fueled -Solar-Wind-Nuclear-CCGT-Fuel Cells-Combined Heat and Power

Renewables e.g. -Biomass-Hydro

Mining e.g.-Crude oil-Natural gas-Coal

Imports e.g.-crude oil -oil products

Exports e.g.-oil products-coal

Stock changes

(Final Energy) (Useful Energy)

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OilWell

Pipeline RefineryPowerPlant

CoalMine

TransportPowerPlant

ResidentialAir

Conditioner

EnergyConservation

Oil 2Oil 1Oil

Gas

Coal 1Coal

Coa

l

Elec

tric

Elec

tric

PowerPlant

Syn-Gasfrom Coal

ResidentialSpace

Cooling

PipelineGas Well

Resource technologies

Process technologies

Conversion technologies

Demand technologies

End-usedemand

Example MARKAL Reference Energy System with One End-Use Demand

Each box is a MARKAL technologyEach arrow is a MARKAL energy carrier

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Data Requirements• Useful energy end-use service demands

• Available resource supplies and costs

• Technology characteristics

– Existing capacity

– Costs: investment, fixed, variable, fuel

– Performance: fuels in/out, efficiency, emission rates, availability, lifetime

• Emissions constraints, taxes

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EPA National MARKAL database

Sector Sources Technologies

Transportation DOE OTT 15 personal vehicle technologies in 5 size classes; 40 other passenger and freight technologies

Electricity NEMS, IPM 45 technologies

Commercial NEMS 300 heating, cooling, ventilation, lighting, and refrigeration technologies

Residential NEMS 135 heating, cooling, lighting, and refrigeration technologies

Industrial SAGE Framework covering 6 industries, 6 energy services

Coal supply NEMS 25 types by region, sulfur content, and mine type; 8-step supply curves

Oil/gas supply NEMS, USGS 5 grades imported oil; 9 imported refined products plus natural gas; 3-step supply curves.Domestic oil and gas production under development

Emissions EPA, GREET CO2, CH4, N20; criteria pollutants

Vehicle-specific emissions for transportControl technology options for electricitySector fuel averages for RCI

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Current Technology Focus in USA

• Electricity generation:– Advanced coal and natural gas plants– Renewables– Advanced nuclear plants– Carbon capture and sequestration

• Transportation:– Conventional and advanced gasoline and diesel ICEs – Gasoline and diesel hybrids– Hydrogen (and other) fuel cells

• Hydrogen

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Electric Sector Technology Assessment – Scenario Strategy

• “Forward” – Given expected technology cost/performance specifications, fuel price trajectories, etc., how are particular generation technologies employed to meet electricity demand? How does this profile affect emissions?

• “Backward” – Given a fixed market penetration (e.g., for renewable generation by 2030), what routes get us there (e.g., high gas prices, specific technology assumptions for wind turbines)?

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Electric Sector Technology Assessment – Internal Focus

• Advanced technologies to examine include:– Carbon capture (pre- and post-combustion)

– H2 fuel cells

– Distributed generation (microturbines)

– Advanced renewables (wind and solar)

– Biomass

– Advanced nuclear

• Technology-based issues:

– Nuclear – What might drive an expanded role? Compatibility with an H2 economy?

– Renewables – How much capacity is feasible?

– Coal – What conditions favor an increase in use (e.g., adoption of carbon capture, gas prices)?

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Electric Sector Technology Assessment – Looking Across

Sectors• Natural gas – What are the impacts of a sustained

increase in gas prices (due to demand change and/or resource depletion)?

• Demand increase – What happens to the generation and emissions profiles if electricity consumption greatly exceeds projections?

• Demand decrease – What demand-side efficiency measures have a significant impact?

• H2 Economy – How would the electricity sector contribute to and be affected by such a transition?

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Transportation Scenario Focus

• Impact and potential of biofuels

• System-wide environmental trade-offs between gasoline-hybrid and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles

• Potential of fleet mandates

• Environmental and economic trade-offs between steam methane reforming, electrolysis, and coal gasification for hydrogen production

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References

IAEA, Energy and Nuclear Power Planning in Developing Countries, Technical Report Series No. 245, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, 1985

International Resources Group, Energy Planning and the Development of Carbon Mitigation Strategies: Using the MARKAL Family of Models

Richard Loulou, Gary Goldstein, Ken Noble, Documentation for the MARKAL Family of Models, Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme October, 2004