Mark Lethbridge: 'What have we learnt about feral camel movements, population dynamics and...
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Reducing feral camel impacts across remote Australia:
Australian Feral Camel Management Project
21st November 2013, Parliament House Theatre, Canberra
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Session Three: Achievements and Outcomes Speakers: Mark Lethbridge, Ecoknowledge Jayne Brim Box, Northern Territory Government Sam Rando, Central Land Council Karl Hampton, Ninti One Lyndee Severin, Curtin Springs Station Jan Ferguson, Ninti One
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Dr Mark Lethbridge
What have we learnt about feral camel movements, population dynamics and management
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Camel monitoring and removal planning
• Satellite Tracking Habitat utilisation – removal planning Finding animals – Judas collars
• Aerial surveys
Monitor changes in the population Distribution – removal planning
• Decision Support Tools
Removal cost estimation Finding animals – Judas collars
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Satellite Tracking
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Dunes
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2007 Aerial Survey
and 2007-09 Tracking
data
+
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• From conference
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Bulloo
DeGrey
Channel
Mandora
Rudall
Serpentine
Goyder
Dalhousie
George Hill Hay River
Uluru
West MacDonnell
Petermanns
West Finke
Algebuckina
Glen Helen
Eyre
Mound springs
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Aerial Surveys
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400 metres - added for low densities
200m strip
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8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
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Estim
ated
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Esimated density of camels
200 metre strips 600 metres strips
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0.4
0.7
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2.7 3
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3.7 4
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Perc
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/- e
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bund
ance
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Sample effort % (transect width dependent)
Simpson culled mobs (av=15.1)
GVD recorded mobs (av= 4.7)
Ξ 200 m
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Now
2008
Buffer Density Abundance Density Abundance 0-50km Serpine Lakes 0.21 4172 0.40 7779 0-50km Algebuckina Waterhouse, Lake Eyre, Lake Eyre Mount Springs 0.03 0.22 0-50km Goydor Lagoon 0.04 744 0.21 4251 0-50km Dalhousie Spring 0.10 1043 0.24 2596 0-50km Hay River & channel Country 0.04 3136 0.26 18518
0-50km Western MacDonnell Ranges, Glen Helen Mound Springs, Uluru Kata Tjuta, Petermann Ranges 0.22 24748 0.74 82423
0-50km Rundall River National Park 0.03 1439 0.27 12239 0-50km DeGrey River 0.00 0.02 0-50km Mandora Salt Marsh 0.00 0.04
50-100km Bulloo River and Lake 0.00 0.00 50-100km Serpine Lakes 0.22 6669 0.36 11074
50-100km Goydor Lagoon, Algebuckina Waterhouse, Lake Eyre, Lake Eyre Mount Springs, Dalhousie Spring, Hay River & channel Country 0.05 0.28
50-100km Western MacDonnell Ranges, Glen Helen Mound Springs, Uluru Kata Tjuta, Petermann Ranges 0.30 25959 0.74 64581
50-100km Rundall River National Park 0.03 1418 0.11 5121 50-100km DeGrey River 0.00 0.03 50-100km Mandora Salt Marsh 0.01 0.04
Target assets
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Aerial Survey and Kriging interpolation/extrapolation
• Population in 2008 208,582 • Population in 2013 69,328
139,254 • Known Removals ~123,000 or 58.9% loss Unaccounted for ~16,000
In target asset areas + 100kms
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• Aerial surveys targeted changes in density in and around assets – good agreement with removal data
• Much greater uncertainty of camel densities well away from survey
areas. – project focus was on removals, thus limited aerial survey coverage
• The 2008 map used older survey data back to 2001, corrected for a 9%
per annum increase in population growth rate. – Assumed no movement and constant growth rate – the latter now unlikely
• Accordingly, the 2013 map only uses 2013 data – thus conservative
• Analysis methodologies have improved.
Uncertainty away from asset areas
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??
??
??
?? ??
??
2008
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??
??
2013
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Other findings
• Large losses of camels in the Simpson Desert and poor condition animals seen further to the west
- Very low rainfall period after good season and fire • Population modelling now suggests rainfall has an influence and the average
population growth rate may be as low as 5% - A research question but currently no funding to support this work
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Kriging estimate
2008 Improved estimate 600,000
2013 Now more likely 300,000 – 400,000 Unlikely there has been a net population growth over the period of the project with more recent fire and drought conditions. 600,000 – 160,000 known removals = 440,000 - so 40,000 – 130,000 unaccounted for.
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SA – Simpson Desert May 2010
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SA – Simpson Desert October 2010
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NT – Simpson Desert Sept 2012
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NT – Western Desert March 2012
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NT – Western Desert July 2012
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WA – Ngaanyatjarra/Kiwirrkurra October 2011
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WA – Ngaanyatjarra/Kiwirrkurra March 2012
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Decision Support Systems
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Freq
uenc
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a P
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ntag
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Sighted Distance from Aircraft (m)
WA SA NT
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Broader Decision Tool
Estimate site-specific removal costs
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