Maritime Regional Wind Energy Resources
Transcript of Maritime Regional Wind Energy Resources
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Maritime Regional Wind Energy Resources:Determining preferred regions for additional onshore and offshore wind energy development
2021-02
Nathaniel Pearre (PhD) and Lukas Swan (PhD, PEng)
Renewable Energy Storage Laboratory
Dalhousie University
Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3J 0H6, Canada
W: http://resl.me.dal.ca
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About RESL
• Research
– Our research focuses on advanced energy storage solutions to allow for increased penetration of renewable electricity generators
– Physical battery lab for testing and understanding performance & degradation
– Energy system modelling group
• Team
– Composed of post-graduate students (PhD, MASc), research assistants, undergraduate students, visitors, and associates.
– Each has independent projects and is providing unique perspectives and results.
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Acknowledgements• This report is funded by the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency (ACOA) under the
Atlantic Policy Research Initiative (Project #213972), which provides a vehicle for the analysis of key socioeconomic policy issues in Atlantic Canada. Additional funding came from the Nova Scotia Department of Energy and Mines (NS-DEM).
• Special thanks go to our research partners for sharing their data– Thanks to the provincial utilities NSP, NBP, & PEIE – Wind farm developer / operator Katalyst Wind & WEICan– Canadian governmental organizations Environment Canada & the DFOC– US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Northeastern Regional
Association of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems (NERACOOS) – Iowa State University for maintaining their weather network data portal
• We appreciate the efforts of the Nova Scotia Offshore Energy Research Association (OERA) in organizing a public webinar on this research
• The authors are responsible for the accuracy, reliability and currency of the information.2021-02-11 Maritime Regional Wind Energy Resources: Determining preferred regions for additional development - Dalhousie University RESL Slide 3
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MOTIVATION, INTRODUCTION, AND DATA SOURCES
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Motivation and objective
• Historic wind energy development– Windy sites– Simple grid connections
• Outcomes– A lot of wind farms in few locations– Correlated power output– Synchronized wind lulls
• Present study– Metrics other than annual capacity factor– Locations that are more ‘harmonious’ to
electricity grid needs– Data driven (removes assumptions) – Graphical outputs (enhances accessibility)
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Approach
• Wind data from Maritimes (NS, NB, PE) and adjoining jurisdictions
– Meteorological stations
– Wind farms
– Offshore buoys
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• Quality control and processing
– Harmonize time zone, time-step
– Scan for errors & bad data
– Engineering judgement
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Map of data sources
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Data pre-processing• Use observed wind farm power curve to convert wind speed to power
• Applied a mean capacity factor (cf) of 37%
• Load and transmission data from provincial electricity utilities
• Output
– Each MET location has power output timeseries
– All locations time-synchronized for wind farm power and electrical load
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Transmission for access and congestionTransmission system Power constraints
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Bathymetry for offshore wind
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CORRELATION METRIC AND RESULTS
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Correlation• How similarly a site varies to a reference timeseries
– High correlation (r > 0.5); high when reference is high, low when it is low.
– Correlation near zero indicates that a site varies independently from reference
– High negative correlation (r < -0.5); low when ref is high, high when ref is low
• Correlation to aggregate existing wind– Lower correlation is better
• Correlation to regional load– Higher correlation is better
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Correlation to Maritime regional wind
• Lower correlations (lighter colors) are better
• Best areas:
– NW NB
– NE Cape Breton
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Correlation to Maritime load
• Higher correlations (lighter colors) are better
• Best areas:
– SW NB
– Far W NS
– Mouth of Bay of Fundy
– Sable Island
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TIME SHIFT METRIC AND RESULTS
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Timeshift• If, on average, wind events arrive at one location before or after they
arrive at the reference, and by how much.
– Test different timeshifts between site and reference
– Find timeshift that produces highest correlation
• Timeshifted resources reduce aggregate power ramp rates
– Reduce strain on dispatchable resources
– Reduce integration costs
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Timeshift vs Maritime regional wind
• Higher absolute values are better (hours)
• Avoid:
– Central NS
– All PE
– E NB
• Best areas:
– W NB (esp. NB Panhandle)
– Cape Breton NS
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CAPACITY VALUE METRIC AND RESULTS
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Capacity value• How much reliable wind power is there when load is high
• Examine only times of highest load defined as top 10%
• Evaluate distribution of observed wind power production at each site during those points in time
• Report fraction of that distribution as ‘reliable capacity’ based on 15th
percentile, 85% reliable
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The 15th percentile power in top 10% loads
• Higher values (lighter colors) are better
• Best areas:– Mouth of Bay of Fundy– NS Atlantic coast– North CB
• Other capacity percentiles and load percentiles were evaluated– Numerical results changed– Spatial patterns were consistent
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TRANSMISSION METRIC AND RESULTS
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Maritime Aggregate Import (-Export)
• Import Bias
– Net import
– Higher peak import
• Seasonality
– Winter peaking
– Summer dip
• More wind will almost always mean less import
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Mean wind during Maritime Peak Import
• Higher production (lighter colors) are better
• Best areas:
– Mouth of Bay of Fundy
– Sable Island
– Northern ME
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CLOSING
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Multiple metrics• Select metrics of interest
– Correlation
– Timeshift
– Capacity value
• Apply threshold criteria
– r value
– Hours
– Power
• Overlay results on a diagram
• Can be focused to specific stakeholder interests
• Can be focused to specific provinces
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Nathaniel Pearre (PhD) and Lukas Swan (PhD, PEng)
W: http://resl.me.dal.ca, E: [email protected], E: [email protected]