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Maritime Policy Review Winter 2020
Volume 1, Number 1
Patron-in-Chief
Dr. Syed Mohammad Anwer
Editor
Hafiz Inam
Maritime Study Forum, Islamabad
Maritime Policy Review © Mari�me Study Forum
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Maritime Policy Review
A publication of Maritime Study Forum, Islamabad
Advisory Board
President Dr. Syed Mohammad Anwer
Members Syed Abu Ahmad Akif Naufil Shahrukh
Dr. Azhar Ahmad Dr. Aneel Salman
Salman Javed Khalid Rehman
Editorial Board Patron-in-Chief Dr. Syed Mohammad Anwer
Editor-in-Chief Salman Javed
Editor Hafiz Inam
Associate Editors Ayesha Urooj Babar Ali Bhatti
Editorial Assistants Shazia Habib Muneeb Salman
Cover Design & Layout Hadia Nasir
Foreword
By the Grace of Allah, Maritime Study Forum is able to launch the first
issue of Maritime Policy Review, a bi-annual Research Journal in
Pakistan, which aims to provide a platform for researchers carrying out
genuine research in maritime domain. I believe Pakistan, being a sea-
facing country, can make the most of its maritime resources and use this
potential to expedite its economic growth provided our policy makers,
legislators and other stakeholders are aware of the importance of marine
resources and sensitized to the issues being faced by communities living
on the far-stretched coastal belt along the Arabian Sea.
There are total seven articles, excluding a case review and a report
review, presented in the first issue of Maritime Policy Review. The
articles are well thought out and have touched upon relevant issues
Pakistan is facing in the maritime sector. The first article written by Rear
Admiral (Retd) Pervaiz Asghar HI (M) sheds light on the importance of
maintaining peace and security at seas for ocean-facing countries. The
second article gives us insight about Indian expansion in the Indian Ocean
region and its implications for Pakistan vis-à-vis its security and balance
of power in the Arabian Sea. Former ambassador Ghalib Iqbal’s piece puts
light on maritime blindness Pakistan has been suffering from since its
independence. After giving us a brief overview of the historical context of
our maritime blindness, the writer warns us of consequences if we do not
mend our ways. Another very pertinent issue – plight of fishermen
imprisoned in India and Pakistan – is discussed at length by Nida Hameed
and Ayesha Urooj in another piece. A young researcher, Mohammad
Saad, has taken pain in explaining the economics of fisheries and how
Pakistan can sustain its fisheries by following the models he has presented
in his research. The phenomenon of climate change has taken the world
aback. Consequently, the world at large is making serious efforts in a bid
to avoid catastrophic impacts of climate vulnerabilities. The articles titled
“IMO 2020 – step towards clean air” and “Coastal tourism and the threat
of changing climate” are written in the same vein.
Maritime Policy Review is a genuine effort to provide a platform to
young Pakistani researchers carrying out research in the maritime sector. I
strongly believe that this endeavor of MSF will bear fruits for Pakistan in
the long run.
Here, I must acknowledge the hard work of the whole MSF team for
putting their best to make this publication happen. It goes without saying
that none of this would have been possible without the supervision of
Salman Javed.
Enjoy the reading!
Dr Syed Mohammad Anwer Patron-in-Chief February, 2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Maritime Security: Challenges and Responses Rear Admiral (Retd) Pervaiz Asghar HI (M)
Regional Implications of India’s Expansion in IOR Mustansar Hussain Taseer & Dr. Summar Iqbal Babar Implications of Pakstan’s Maritime Blindness – Lessons from China’s Maritime Strategy Ambassador (R) Ghalib Iqbal
Plight of Fishermen Imprisoned in India & Pakistan Nida Hameed & Ayesha Urooj
The Economics of Fisheries Muhammad Saad
Coastal Tourism and the Threat of Climate Change Mohammad Ammar Alam
IMO 2020 – Step towards Cleaner Air Muhammad Sarfaraz Alam
Case Review
Report Review
1
16
40
58
72
95
112
126
137
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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Maritime Security: Challenges & Responses
Rear Admiral (Retd) Pervaiz Asghar HI (M)*
Abstract
There was a time in the not-too-distant past when the concept of maritime
security was closely tied to the traditional use of naval military power for
the protection of one’s coast and maritime interests. For the more robust
naval powers, such security was ensured through naval power projection,
while relatively weaker states had little option but to fall back on a
defensive strategy. However, time has changed as major players operating
at seas have now assumed the role of maintaining peace and security to
keep sea trade undisturbed, while safeguarding their national interests.
This paper attempts to highlight the conceptual framework of maritime
security and emerging challenges that need to be taken into consideration
for ensuring peace and security at seas. It also draws attention towards
non-conventional maritime security threats to Pakistan and how Pakistan
can stand tall against such challenges.
* The writer is a former naval officer who commanded two destroyers as well as the 25th
Destroyer Squadron. He has also served as the Director General of National Centre for
Maritime Policy Research.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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Introduction
For a very long time, the ground rules for marshalling the maritime
environment had unfortunately continued to be laid by those states which
were already de facto in a position of control. The term ‘mare nostrum’
(our sea) was coined by the Romans in 30 BCE to describe their total grip
over the Mediterranean Sea. In 1609 ACE, Hugo Grotius, a Dutch
philosopher-cum-jurist, introduced the concept of ‘Mare Liberum’ (free
sea) enjoining the freedom of navigation at sea.1 This came at a time when
the Dutch were trying to make deeper inroads into the Indian Ocean
trading system and their expectation of a level playing field was thwarted
by the firm Portuguese grip over the ocean’s chokepoints. Around 27
years later, an English academic, John Selden, came out in support of
‘mare clausum’ (closed sea), meaning thereby that the sea was in practice
as capable of appropriation as land territory.2 This led to the emergence of
numerous conflicting claims which had the potential of fomenting
perpetual chaos had not better sense gradually prevailed.
The most crucial development to have taken place was the coming
into force of UNCLOS ‘82. This Convention not only conferred
proportionate rights on all coastal, and even non-coastal states, but more
1 "Hugo Grotius," Encyclopedia Britannica, accessed February 6, 2020,
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Hugo-Grotius#ref43936. 2 "John Selden," Encyclopedia Britannica, accessed February 6, 2020,
https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Selden#ref101656.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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importantly, invested them with vital stakes in the maintenance of stability
at sea.3
UNCLOS ‘82 is best understood as a framework providing a basic
foundation for the international law of the oceans, one which is intended
to be extended and elaborated upon through more specific international
agreements and the evolving customs of states. These extensions are
continually emerging, making the law of the sea at once broader, more
complex and more detailed than UNCLOS. Just as international law has
continued to evolve, so have threats to good order at sea, the difference
being that while the former exudes positivity, the latter foments instability.
The pity is that despite the Convention having laid down clear-cut
mechanisms for the resolution of disputes between states, territorial issues
still serve as a trigger for clashes at sea.
While on the subject of implementation, it may be worthwhile to
mention that the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea is not the be-all
and end-all of all maritime matters. While correctly dubbed as an informal
constitution of the oceans, it mostly lays down broad principles, leaving
the elaboration of rules to other treaties. The International Maritime
Organisation, an organ of the United Nations, essays an oversized role in
the promulgation and regular updating of all maritime-related conventions
and codes.
3 "United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea," UN.org, last modified September
5, 2001, https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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Importance of Open Trade at Sea
The one thing that is most central to a nation’s well-being is its ability to
trade freely across continents. A country’s natural resources, along with a
matching value-adding capacity, are all meaningless if a corresponding
ability to trade is denied. The importance of the sea can thus easily be
envisaged when one realises that more than 85% of world trade is
conducted through this medium.4 This also helps explain why during both
the world wars, one of the foremost missions assigned to the navies of
both the adversarial powers was to protect one’s own sea trade while
denying it to the other side. Apart from scenarios where national interests
trump collective needs, the twin concepts of the sea as being a common
heritage of mankind, from which all states benefit from, and of the
freedom of the sea, has now firmly taken root. This augurs well for all
coastal states including Pakistan.
From Pakistan’s perspective, disruptions may occur if a war or
near war situation arises. How the country deals with such emerging
threats falls in the realm of naval strategy and tactics. Suffice it to say that
contingency plans in place are designed to cater to all likely eventualities.
4 "UNCTAD: Seaborne Trade Volume Reached 10.7 Billion Tons in 2017,"
SAFETY4SEA, last modified December 10, 2018, https://safety4sea.com/unctad-
seaborne-trade-volume-reached-10-7-billion-tons-in-2017/.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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It is not a hidden fact that all the major maritime powers, as well as the
countries straddling the Persian Gulf, have vast stakes in keeping the
international sea trade routes open, and may not take too kindly to any
form of disruption in a two-sided war. Belligerents too, if convinced that
no significant advantage is likely to be accrued by disrupting their
adversary’s sea trade while their own is equally vulnerable, may well
decide to steer clear of what has been termed as guerre de course. And
therein lies the value of deterrence. This is however merely an observation
and should by no means be construed as an argument for letting down
one’s guard.
Maritime Security Matrix and Non-Conventional Security
Threats
These days maritime security has simply become a buzzword and even in
the absence of a consensus on what it encompasses, the term still serves a
useful need of drawing attention to new challenges and mustering support
for tackling them. The maritime security matrix is thus broadly linked to
national security, human security, marine environment and economic
development.5
This brings us to non-traditional challenges at sea, which adversely
impact all the above-named issues in one way or another. They may take
the form of terrorism, piracy, poaching, narco-smuggling, gun-running,
5 Mišo Mudrić, "Maritime Security: Editorial Note," Croatian International Relations
Review (CIRR) 22, no. 75 (n.d.), 5-7.
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human trafficking and environmental degradation. Such threats have not
only attained prominence, but tend to crop up in areas where they face the
least resistance.
It was the 1985 hijacking of the passenger liner Achille Lauro in
the Mediterranean, which resulted in the senseless killing of a paraplegic
passenger that brought the issue of maritime terrorism in the spotlight.6
The ensuing deliberations led to the adoption of the UN Convention for
the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Marine Navigation
(SUA Convention in short) in 1988.7
The SUA Convention of 1988 enjoins global collaboration to combat
violent crimes at sea. The primary thrust of this Convention is to prevent
people from endangering the safety of ship, crew or passengers. Ship
masters are obliged to deliver offenders along with evidence to port of
entry, while state parties have been made responsible for jurisdiction over
offenders. It all looks fine on paper, but as mentioned earlier, most masters
and even state parties prefer to look the other way when confronted with
vile occurrences at sea.
6 "US Navy Fighter Jets Intercept Italian Cruise Ship Hijackers," History.com, last
modified October 9, 2019, https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/achille-lauro-
hijacking-ends. 7 "SUA Treaties," IMO.org, accessed February 6, 2020,
https://www.imo.org/en/About/Conventions/ListOfConventions/Pages/SUA-
Treaties.aspx.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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The magnitude of the 9/11 terrorist attacks ushered in its wake the
stark realisation that a similar attack on any major maritime hub could
very well cause an immeasurable dent in the global economy. The US,
feeling particularly vulnerable, kept launching one initiative after another.
Some of them include: The Container Security Initiative, Customs-Trade
Partnership against Terrorism, Maritime Transportation Security Act,
Mega ports Initiative, Proliferation Security Initiative, SAFE Ports Act
and Secure Freight Initiative.
1) Maritime Terrorism
Because of its unpredictable nature and massive devastation potential,
terrorism poses the most significant risk by far to merchantmen and even
naval vessels. The bombing of the USS Cole while at the Aden anchorage,
in 2000, and MV Lindberg off the coast of Yemen in 2002, both rammed
by explosives-laden dinghies, best illustrate the nature of this threat,
though not its full potential.8
As far as the global community was concerned, the greatest
breakthrough in strengthening maritime security achieved in December
2002 at an IMO-sponsored conference, where the International Ship &
Port Facility Security Code was unveiled. Since it was tabled as an
amendment to the existing Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) Convention, its
8 "USS Cole Bombing," Federal Bureau of Investigation, last modified May 18, 2016,
https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/uss-cole-bombing.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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compliance became mandatory for the 148 SOLAS contracting parties.9
The ISPS Code provides mandatory requirements for governments, port
authorities and shipping companies as well as guidance for
implementation.
2) Piracy
Piracy poses the next biggest threat to maritime security. The Malacca
Straits, the South China Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Guinea
display marked vulnerabilities. Yet when compared to Somali piracy in its
heyday (2005-2012), these are mere pinpricks. In Somalia, what started
off as a local endeavour to curb rampant poaching and dumping of toxic
waste in its lawless waters, grew into a full-blown piratical enterprise. It
spiralled out of control by 2008 when fabulous sums of money were being
raked in as ransom for captured vessels, cargo and crew. In 2010 alone,
pirates seized close to 50 vessels, taking nearly 1200 seamen as
hostages.10 And from this peak, piracy dwindled gradually in 2011 and
more rapidly the next. What caused such piracy to flourish in the first
place was a disjointed international response. A large number of warships
did belatedly converge on to the high risk areas by 2009, either as part of
international groupings like the EUs Operation Atlanta, NATOs Operation
Ocean Shield or the international coalition’s CTF 151, or as individual
9 "SOLAS XI-2 ISPS Code," IMO.org, accessed February 6, 2020,
https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Security/Guide_to_Maritime_Security/Pages/SOLAS-
XI-2%20ISPS%20Code.aspx. 10 "FACTBOX-Ships Held by Somali Pirates," Reuters.com, last modified January 28,
2011, https://www.reuters.com/article/somalia-piracy-incidents-
idAFLDE70R0VS20110128.
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units, to protect their country’s national interests. At the end of the day,
piracy off Somalia, which had spread its tentacles to the furthest reaches
of the western Indian Ocean, was brought under control through a series of
coordinated steps:
a. Broad-based UN resolutions authorising the international
community to tackle the threat in a collaborative manner by
targeting the planners, facilitators and perpetrators of piracy, not
only within Somali waters but also within its land territory if
required.
b. Preparation, dissemination and updating of an industry-backed
initiative outlining best management practices to deter piracy.
c. Authorising merchantmen traversing the area to carry armed
guards for protection.
d. Imposition of banking curbs on UK banks in particular, to
complicate the issue of ransom payments.
e. Setting up of a task force aimed at targeting the organisers,
financiers and negotiators behind the piracy enterprise.
f. Encouraging the collaborative capacity building of regional states.
The Malacca Strait is a high density traffic lane. Once realisation sunk in
that trade disruptions in this corridor were inimical to the regional
economy, the three major countries straddling the waterway, namely
Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia started containment efforts through
effective coordination in the form of ReCAAP (The Regional Cooperation
Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against ships in
Asia) and commencement of joint patrols, which proved immensely
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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successful.11 The only major flashpoint at the moment is the Gulf of
Guinea where the principal player, Nigeria, needs to spearhead a similar
initiative. The G8++ Friends of the Gulf of Guinea (FOGG) group tries to
help out with the capacity-building of regional states.
3) Human and Drug Trafficking
Side by side with piracy, other crimes too have blossomed, largely
unchecked. Criminal enterprises find the medium to be an inviting one,
since the vast expanse of the sea makes effective policing difficult. From
the illegal transportation of humans, drugs and arms to poaching and the
dumping of toxic waste, the sea has seen it all. Like piracy, illegal,
unreported and unregulated fishing too has an immediate impact on the
lives of local populations. This situation also has to be dealt with through
regional collaboration.
4) Poor Marine Environment
In broad terms, degradation of the marine environment also poses a grave
threat to maritime security. The IMO has accordingly adopted strict anti-
pollution standards for ships courtesy of the MARPOL Convention. It may
however be stressed that pollution of the sea through land-based sources
poses a far graver threat. This is regulated through several regional
11 "PCG, ReCAAP ISC Convene to Assess Evolution of Piracy, Sea Robbery in Asia,"
Philippine Coast Guard Official Website, last modified December 18, 2019,
https://www.coastguard.gov.ph/index.php/11-news/3645-pcg-recaap-isc-convene-to-
assess-evolution-of-piracy-sea-robbery-in-asia.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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treaties, most of which have been adopted under the aegis of the UN
Environmental Program. The Pakistan’s Environmental Protection Agency
needs to take a lead from such UN initiatives.
Legal Obstacles in the Way of Ensuring Maritime Security
Maritime security is also endangered by crimes committed at sea. The
most problematic aspect of such crimes is the difficulty in obtaining
justice. In theory, the captain is responsible for maintaining peace, but in
practice, the best he can do is to hand over the suspects to the nearest
convenient port. He simply doesn’t possess the required prosecution and
judicial wherewithal. In theory again, jurisdiction devolves to the country
whose flag the ship flies, but in practice, most ships fly a flag of
convenience, tagged to a country that neither has the will nor the resources
to investigate crimes that occur well beyond its shores.
Threats to Pakistan’s Maritime Security
Pakistan faces more or less the same threats, though in varying degrees.
Effectively countering such diverse threats in such a vast medium is
indeed an uphill task. Pakistan’s job is made even more difficult due to a
number of glaring deficiencies.
Pakistan’s biggest problem used to be a complete lack of
coordination at the ministerial, departmental and field levels. It was left to
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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the Pakistan Navy to take the initiative to bring together all the country’s
public sector agencies with a stake in maritime security on the same grid.
The Joint Maritime Information and Coordination Centre that was set up
at Manora includes representatives from all associated agencies for
effective coordination. The Centre has not only been working smoothly
since February 2013, it has also established working linkages with other
regional info sharing portals, most notably the Information Fusion Centre
at Singapore. With the aim of further expanding its access to maritime-
related information, the Pakistan Navy joined the Trans Regional
Maritime Network (T-RMN), a 32-nation group based in Italy, in October
2019.12 Linkages at the higher echelons are sustained by the National
Maritime Affairs Coordination Committee, whose meetings are chaired by
the Defence Secretary. Its working is however marred by the irregularity
with which the body meets, as well as a lack of interest which the
ministries generally display.
While info sharing and coordination are undoubtedly important,
their contribution would not amount to much were it not for a
corresponding ability to act. The Pakistan Maritime Security Agency,
which was setup soon after UNCLOS ‘82 was opened up for signature, is
primarily responsible for monitoring breaches of the Convention. The
Pakistan Navy too, by virtue of being endowed with effective long range
surveillance and enforcement platforms, happens to be an exceedingly
12 "Pakistan Navy Joins 32-member Trans Regional Maritime Network," RADIO
PAKISTAN, accessed February 6, 2020, https://www.radio.gov.pk/20-10-2019/pakistan-
navy-joins-32-member-trans-regional-maritime-network.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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viable instrument that the country has at its disposal for underwriting its
maritime security.
Pakistan Responding to Security Threats
Realising that the most effective way of countering the common hybrid
menaces that recognize no boundaries is through regional alliances. This is
evident from the fact that the Pakistan Navy, till recently, had been a
regular participant of Combined Task Forces 150 and 151, both of which
it had the honour of commanding multiple times. The US-led CTF 150
had been set up in the wake of the UN-sanctioned invasion of
Afghanistan, with the prime objective of ensuring maritime security in the
Arabian Sea by undertaking counterterrorism operations. When piracy
incidents off Somalia started registering a sharp uptick, a dedicated
Combined Task Force 151 was set up to patrol, monitor and counter
piracy in general in the Gulf of Yemen. Based on the friendships forged
and experiences gained through such multi-navy enterprises, the Pakistan
Navy has since instituted its own Regional Maritime Security Patrols.
As far as maritime security in essence is concerned, the most
relevant piece of legislation is the International Ship and Port Facility
Security Code, which came into being soon after the 9/11 attacks and is
part and parcel of the SOLAS Convention. The primary objective of this
code is to ensure the strengthening of security measures in order to deal
effectively with all emerging maritime security threats. As per this code,
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14
Pakistan, as a contracting government, is supposed to conduct port facility
security assessments, evaluate risks and prepare port security plans. All
ships are required, amongst other things, to carry a Continuous Synopsis
Record (CSR), and have an Automatic Information System (AIS), Ship
Security Alert System (SSAS) and Long Range Identification and
Tracking System (LRIT) fitted on board. While Pakistan is broadly
complying with these steps, what it lacks at the moment is an effective
regulatory mechanism.
Apart from regulatory issues, Pakistan is notoriously lax in
formulating its own domestic legislation. When international treaties are
not wedded to domestic law, implementation understandably poses
difficulties. For instance, if the offence of piracy is not outlawed through
domestic legislation, and piracy is not included in Pakistan’s penal code as
a criminal act, prosecution of pirates that the country has captured will
remain a distant dream. Likewise, in the absence of domestic legislation,
Pakistani law enforcers cannot prevent ships from dumping oil, sludge,
ballast or other toxic substances in our coastal waters or prosecute them if
caught. Maritime, Admiralty and Prize courts are also needed for trying
offences of a specialised nature, like commercial shipping matters,
navigation-related issues, salvage, collisions, groundings, etc.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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Conclusion
Most of the challenges currently being faced at sea have taken on a
transnational, trans-boundary and hybrid flavour. Such threats can only
effectively be countered by remaining a step or two ahead of the criminals
who feed on them. In Pakistan’s case, that not only involves restructuring
at the ministerial, departmental and field levels, but also forging regional
partnerships.
All coastal states are expected to act responsibly and in tandem
with each other by beefing up their port and ship-related security measures
to minimise security incidents. Pakistan is expected to, and should, do all
it can to ensure its own security as well as the security of broader global
maritime community. Having been plagued by terrorism for the better part
of four decades, the country cannot afford its spillover into the maritime
domain.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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Regional Implications of India’s Expansion in
IOR
Mustansar Hussain Taseer*& Dr. Summar Iqbal Babar**
Abstract
The idiosyncratic geographical location, along with several other factors,
make the Indian Ocean one of the most significant and busiest bodies of
water with prodigious economic dividends. However, as the regional
powers lock horns for Indian Ocean’s supremacy and are extraordinarily
tightening up their respective military muscles, the already fragile
regional security environment comes under the dark shadow of risk. It is
mainly in the interests of the major powers which are fueling the fire for
future hostility by widening the gulf of mistrust through their aggressive
and threatening maneuvers in the IOR. Despite the presence of numerous
fault lines, the strategic ventures by the aspiring powers not only to
achieve their respective interests but also to jeopardize the others’ are fast
becoming the order of the day in the IOR. The two rising nations India
and China are at the forefront in this new wave of geopolitical strife in the
IOR. Both countries are major stake-holders in the region and might never
be in a position to afford regional instability, yet they have plunged into
*Mustansar Hussain Taseer is a visiting faculty at the Department of International
Relations, University of Okara
** Dr. Summar Iqbal Babar is an Assistant Professor at School of Politics and
International Relations, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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the deep swamps of arms race coming out of which might never be
possible in this world of anarchic order. The history of unfriendliness,
rather animosity between the two, and the distrust that has perpetuated
over the years have not let the two most populous yet flourishing nations
to permanently resolve their various discords. In the 21stcentury, this
traditional contest has now entered into the maritime domain and the
Indian Ocean and its rims are the major zones of competition. Both sides
seem completely submerged in this struggle for relative geopolitical
inducements. They spare not a single opportunity to get a strategic
leverage over the other. The two sides are intransigent with their realist
approach to the regional and global politics and are unable to come out of
their traditional zone of influence. So, the massive military modernization,
nuclearization of the waters, and emergence of confrontationist poles are
some of the indications that the region is going to face serious stability
risk in the near future which will have perilous implications for the whole
IOR. Not only the region’s already tenuous peace, security and economic
prosperity will be at stake, but any miscalculation or irrational
adventurism may lead to atrocious consequences.
Introduction
Rapidly increasing significance of the Indian Ocean Region and the
ensuing intense competition for dominance among various powers has
turned the region into a hotspot of the latest geopolitical writhe. Keeping
in view the economic and strategic dividends the ocean offers, many
political players seem to be out to get their cherished share. With the
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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recognition of the ‘Asian Century’, the Indian Ocean Region has been
spot-lighted by observers like Robert Kaplan, as the “Center Stage for the
Twenty-first Century” power tussles.13 Furthermore, China, the Indians
believe, is fearful of India’s rise and want to contain it by engaging it
through Pakistan. The major issue, however, is their deep-rooted distrust
and despite reaching voluminous trade level of 100 billion US dollars14
between the two countries, economic interdependence seems failed to
replace the recent wave of geopolitics. These geopolitical bases, ports,
strategic chokepoints and facilities are also sources of serious mutual
disquiet.
The preceding discussion underscores that India has unalienable
and serious interests and imperatives in the IOR. These interests and
concerns are of all types and at all levels. India must struggle for them as it
is the country’s not only an international right but an obligation as a
nation-state. However, as the study suggests that the issue is not only of
the due rights, it is more than that. India’s actions and forays appear
destabilizing and disrupting the regional strategic balance.
The study, further explains various developments by
deconstructing the country’s 2015 Maritime Security Strategy that
indicates India has long been aspiring for regional dominance as it proudly
declares its struggle for becoming the net maritime security provider in the
13Robert D. Kaplan, “Center Stage for the 21st Century,” Foreign Affairs 88, no. 2
(2009): 16–32. 14“India-China Trade Set To Cross $100 Billion This Year, Says Official,” NDTV,
accessed July 2, 2019, https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-china-trade-set-to-cross-
100-billion-this-year-says-official-2046060.
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whole Indo-Pacific region. In the Indian Ocean, it is not only expanding its
influence at the cost of other regional stakeholders such as China and
Pakistan, but also rigorously developing its naval capabilities which may
have irreversible strategic implications not only for the IOR but also
beyond.
Significance of IOR
Due to its idiosyncratic geographical location, its glittering profusion of
natural resources and its historical engagements, the third-largest body of
water, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), has achieved an unprecedented
pivotal role in the world’s economic, strategic, and political reckonings. In
Sanskrit, the Indian Ocean was called Ratnakara that means “the creator
of gems.”15 There is a very famous statement attributed to Admiral Alfred
Thayer Mahan as: ‘Whoever attains maritime supremacy in the Indian
Ocean would be a prominent player on the international scene. Whoever
controls the Indian Ocean dominates Asia. This Ocean is the key to the
seven seas in the 21st century, the destiny of the world will be decided in
these waters.’16 Ipso facto many states such as China, India, Japan,
Australia, and some Western nations appear to be in a state of ‘perpetual
race’ in the IOR struggling to secure a disproportionate share of dividends
15“Connecting the Gems of the Indian Ocean: From Oman to East Africa,” National
Museum of African Art, accessed November 13, 2018,
https://africa.si.edu/50years/oman/. 16“Indian Ocean’- The 21st Century ‘Security Dilemma’ between China and India –
NICKELED AND DIMED,” Nickel and Dimmed, November 15, 2014,
https://nickledanddimed.wordpress.com/2014/11/15/indian-ocean-the-21st-century-
security-dilemma-between-china-and-india-category-foreign-policy-and-politics-
institutions/.
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the ocean offers. Consequently, the IOR has turned into a geopolitical
hotbed.
Rimmed with three continents; Asia, Africa, and Australia, the
IOR plays its inordinate part by feeding over one-third of the planet’s total
population. Though the economic and political importance of the IOR has
achieved immense hype in the recent decades, yet the advantages offered
by its natural geographical setting have remained nonpareil. The Indian
Ocean spreads over a total of 73,427,000 square kilometers (28,350,000
square miles) that make 20 per cent of the world’s total sea
surface.17Contrary to others’ North-South stretch, the Indian Ocean is
stretched East-West. So, none of its area is covered by snow that enables
maritime activities throughout the year.
Dr. Walter C. Ladwig III of Kings College London posits that the
IOR is important for the simple fact that one-third of humanity lives in the
littoral region. The region’s waterways are a vital conduit for bringing oil
from the Persian Gulf to the economies of much of the Asia-Pacific, and to
a lesser extent Europe. The same waterways also provide the means for
manufacturers in East Asia to export goods to market in the Middle East,
Africa, and Europe. A host of important industrial raw materials can also
be found in, or transit, this region.18
17“Indian Ocean," Encyclopedia.Com, accessed December 20, 2018,
https://www.encyclopedia.com/places/oceans-continents-and-polar-regions/oceans-and-
continents/indian-ocean#IndianOc. 18Walter Ladwig III, Interview via Email, January 7, 2019.
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India’s Expansion in IOR
A nation’s envisioned strategic objectives, interests, its worldview, and the
prevailing geopolitical and geo-strategic environment shape its orientation
towards attaining a specific level of sea power mainly because a state’s
foreign policy and maritime power are inseparably linked. Maritime power
is an ability that serves a nation to realize its geopolitical aspirations and
one of the key factors to play its role to transform a nation into a powerful
and influential one at the world stage if its geographical location is
advantageous and it capitalizes the location and develops a certain level of
maritime and naval fitness. In today’s realist world where nations are
running for relative gains, the states naturally blessed with some
geographical leverages over its perceived or real adversaries are always in
a struggle to maintain that edge. India seems one of them.
According to India’s strategy document, there are three main
reasons for India’s swelling thirst for achieving the status of great
maritime power. First, due to the shifting of the world’s focus towards
Asia and the Indo-Pacific region and this repositioning has resulted in the
unusual transformations in the Indian Ocean Region which has brought
India’s maritime relevance in the light. Second, India believes that the new
challenges to the maritime security such as terrorism through seas have
drastically changed the whole security architecture of the Indian Ocean
which calls for serious reevaluation, upgradations, and doctrinal
reorientation to align them with the nature of new threats. Third, India sees
maritime power as an important element for national progress, global
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interactions and India’s “regional foreign policy initiatives.”19 One
interpretation of this could be that Indians want a level of maritime
capability which they could tactfully employ to achieve their geopolitical
and other goals.
As the Modi regime maintains three main elements of India’s
foreign policy; “the use of power, diversity of security relationships and
the pursuit of status,” its active and prioritized Indian Ocean policy lies
right at the heart of “Modi’s foreign policy fundamentals.”20 These are
India’s strategic transformations and the quest for expanding maritime
capabilities and doctrinal shifts which were vividly expressed in India’s
updated version of maritime security strategy revealed and published in
2015 titled; Ensuring the Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy
(IMSS-2015) – the document that a senior Indian security analyst dubbed
as an “Ambitious New Naval Strategy.”21 It appears from the maritime
strategy that India has formalized its aggressive maritime postures to make
it in congruence with India’s overall foreign policy objectives and expand
national interests in South Asia, IOR and even in South East Asia, which
this research will explore in reasonable details.
19 "Ensuring Secure Seas,” India, Indian Navy, and Directorate of Strategy updated on
January 25,2016,
https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/sites/default/files/Indian_Maritime_Security_Strategy_Do
cument_25Jan16.pdf 20Rajesh Basrur, “Modi’s Foreign Policy Fundamentals: A Trajectory Unchanged,”
International Affairs 93, no. 1 (January 1, 2017): 7–26, https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiw006. 21Vivek Mishra, “Revealed: India’s Ambitious New Naval Strategy,” Text, The National
Interest, June 2, 2016, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/revealed-indias-ambitious-new-
naval-strategy-16438.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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Some of the very important questions will be addressed in this
paper: what are India’s interests and imperatives in the IOR? What are the
major contours of India’s maritime strategy and why so? What is India’s
Naval and maritime modernization drive? Besides, the discussion will also
try to ascertain whether India is an Offensive Realist state.
India’s Strategic Imperatives in IOR
Owing to its unique geographical location, its peninsular shape, its rapid
economic and military growth, and also due to historical factors, India’s
interests and primacy in the Indian Ocean Region cannot be undervalued.
Its location in the Indian Ocean is a double-edged sword and is not the
only source of prospects and potentialities for India’s economic growth
and geopolitical gains but at the same time is a cause of vulnerability due
to its 7,500 kilometres long coastline and 1200 islands in the vast stretches
of the ocean. Over the period of time, India’s strategic imperatives in the
IOR have multiplied due to the changing nature of threats and inroads of
the extra-regional powers, such as China, which are apparently inimical to
India’s geopolitical interests. The prevailing strategic environment has
also a lot to do with the significance of the IOR for India’s security. The
volatile region is home to conflicts and arms race between two South
Asian nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, deploying their strategic
weapons now at sea and literally testing each other’s resolve repeatedly
while pushing the region at the risk of strategic instability.
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PM Modi placed the IOR at the top of the priority list of his
government and vowed to utilize resources and capabilities for
cooperation and also called for the regional stakeholders to play a role in
maintaining peace and security of the IOR.22 The Indian PM categorically
explained India’s objectives in the Indian Ocean in his speech explaining
the SAGAR vision during his 2015 visit to Seychelles and Mauritius
saying, “our goal is to seek a climate of trust and transparency; respect for
international maritime rules and norms by all countries; sensitivity to each
other’s interests; peaceful resolution of maritime security issues; and
increase in maritime cooperation.”23
If summarized in points, India’s some prominent interests and strategic
imperatives in the larger Indian Ocean Region could be as follows:
i) To secure its Sea Lines of Communications, chokepoints and to
ensure the uninterrupted flow of its energy and other trade
supplies;
ii) To ensure the security of its mainland, islands, deployments,
Economic Zones and other maritime settings, throughout the
Indian Ocean from all natures of challenges including conventional
and nonconventional threats;
iii) To keep its natural resources exploration projects smooth and
intact to exploit the maritime potentials to their maximum;
22Harsh V. Pant, “New Delhi’s Indian Ocean Outreach,” The Diplomat, June 01, 2017,
https://thediplomat.com/2017/06/new-delhis-indian-ocean-outreach/. 23“Mr. Modi’s Ocean View,” The Hindu, March 17, 2015, sec. Editorial,
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/mr-modis-ocean-view/article7000182.ece.
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iv) To counter and curtail the intrusion of the extra-regional powers
perceived as hostile to its sphere of influence and its long-term
geopolitical interests;
v) To gain the capability to act as a principal player in America’s
Indo-Pacific and China containment policy;
vi) To gradually remove all those barriers hampering India to achieve
the status of a regional leader and a Net Security Provider.
To achieve these objectives, India has been devising its maritime strategy
and pursuing various short and long-term policies, some with declared
objectives while some designs or some policies are not clear, at least not
being announced by India, and are deliberately kept secret conceivably
due to the diversity and complexity of India’s geopolitical interests in the
IOR.
India’s Maritime Strategy
To understand Indian future strategic endeavors and enterprises in the
maritime sphere, deconstruction and analyses of the Indian maritime
strategy are of supreme importance. Without its study, one cannot claim
comprehensive study of the subject matter. It would just be shallow and
superficial. In the new maritime strategy published in 2015 by the Indian
Navy titled Ensuring the Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy
(IMSS-2015), there appears to be two levels of India’s maritime focus
keeping in view the country’s interests and imperatives discussed in the
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pages above. One is called by the document as primary areas and the other
is declared as secondary areas.
The changing regional maritime dynamics couldn’t attract due
attention in the 2007 Indian Freedom to Use the Seas: India’s Maritime
Military Strategy perhaps because the contours of currently emerging
geopolitical and strategic environment of the Indian Ocean as well as the
Pacific Region weren’t clear and the world powers particularly the US had
still not entered the fray by announcing its rebalancing or the Pivot policy.
The Mumbai attack which is being given a special reference in the IMSS-
2015 happened in 2008. Similarly, China’s foothold was also not divisible.
As mentioned earlier, though China’s String of Pearls had got a mention in
2005 and its traces were found even earlier, but the clarity was not there
and due to these reasons, the US and India could not formulate an
appropriate response to it. China’s BRI and MSR initiative was announced
in 2013 which brought clarity to a greater extent. So, these and some other
realities reasonably contributed to broadening the scope of India’s
Maritime Strategy (IMSS-2015) with the primary feature of filling the gaps
of geopolitical changes that took place between 2007 and 2015. Some of
the notable features of India’s maritime strategy are as follows:
(1) Defining Areas of Interests
The IMSS-2015 alters and extends India’s areas of preferences at the seas.
Starting from coastal areas, the primary areas include; India’s territorial
waters, EEZ, the continental shelf including various seas, chokepoints and
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its islands. The primacy of these areas is because they are actually directly
connected with India’s security, economic and political interests and any
harm in these spheres may inflict serious damage not only to India’s long-
term interests but to its reputation as a dominant regional power.
(2) Greater Role in National Security
Recently, the Indian Navy has rapidly emerged as a critical national player
in regional and global strategic alliance formations. India’s strategic
thinkers, as per documents, see the 21st century for their country as the
century of seas. So the maritime domain has now a greater part to play in
India’s grand strategy or what the 2015 document calls, “National Security
Strategy” through a greater role of “Navy for national development,”
maintenance of national defence and security by achieving “full-spectrum
capability” with having greater focus “on developing and maintaining the
Navy as a continually formidable, multi-dimensional, balanced and
networked force, capable of countering the full range of maritime threats
and challenges” to play a decisive role in preventing or winning any
conflict by devising and rigorously implementing strategies both for
deterrence and conflict.24
24 "Indian Maritime Security Strategy - 2015 | Indian Navy," Official Website of Indian
Navy, accessed January 4, 2020, https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/content/indian-maritime-
security-strategy-2015.
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(3) India as Net Security Provider
Net Security Provider state is the one which claims having the military
capability of not only maintaining its own security in the wake of any
threat perception but also possesses the required strength and depth to
practically assist other countries, regional or beyond, to guarantee their
security as well through various means and methods. The methods may
include the client nations’ military capacity building, collaborative foreign
policy objectives through rightly thought out military diplomacy, joint
military exercises, military assistance, and through direct deployment in
those countries if needed. One fundamental point which can define India’s
whole IMSS-2015 is India’s aspiration to become a maritime Net Security
Provider (NSP). The NSP is the prime theme around which the whole
strategy document revolves. All the maritime expansion, naval
modernization, collaboration with other maritime forces, alliances, Quad
or others, establishment of ports and bases around the region, and all such
other themes appear to have one major objective: to prove and improve
India’s maritime abilities for a real Net Security Provider.
India’s Maritime Expansion
India’s maritime expansion can rightly be seen under the broader context
of its aspirations of projecting itself as a regional leader and a hegemon
and its quest for becoming a net maritime security provider. According to
India’s current maritime strategy, expansion of India’s interests are
expanding into the vast stretches of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. India’s
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strategy in this regard is not only ambitious and expansionist in nature but
also very comprehensive. It covers all aspects of maritime cooperation,
alliances, as well as spatial expansion in all the sub regions of the IOR.
Look West
Earlier, India did not pay much attention to its far western side of the
Indian Ocean region and the areas remained least important in its
maritime strategic calculations. But with China’s increasing influence in
this part of the IOR, India has felt the need to have a very pragmatic and
inclusive orientation towards the whole Ocean. As the Great Game has
moved to the seas, it’s quite natural that India is struggling to achieve
convergence with various Middle Eastern nations particularly with Iran
and has taken over partial control of its Chabahar Port which is very
close to Pakistan’s Gwadar.25
It is believed that a vibrant Look West Policy is far more
important for New Delhi as compared to looking towards physically and
geographically well-connected East and South East Asia. The Indian
analyst opined that India acts geopolitically, strategically, and culturally
more towards Central Asia, Middle East regions, especially the latter
where China is still not properly locked-in with other nations of the area
25Harry I. Hannah, "The Great Game Moves to Sea: Tripolar Competition in the Indian
Ocean Region,” Texas National Security Review, April 01, 2019, accessed at:
https://warontherocks.com/2019/04/the-great-game-moves-to-sea-tripolar-competition-
in-the-indian-ocean-region/.
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while India already enjoys trustful ties with Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel,
Iraq and such other countries.26
Under this policy, India’s some of the moves to assume control over
various maritime facilities of the western region are detailed as follows:
(i) Iran, Chabahar Port
In 2014, India provided nearly $85 million financial assistance to Iran
for construction of two berths at Chabahar port. Later in 2016, PM Modi
vowed to invest over $500m to develop and function the Chabahar Port.
India officially took control of the operational part of the Iranian port in
December 2018 which is strategically very important as it is situated
closer to the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint of the Indian
Ocean through which a third of world’s oil is being transported. The
port will also serve India as a transit trade route to Afghanistan and
Central Asian Republics via Iran. It is clear from these developments
that India has been given a waiver from the US over the issue of
Chabahar Port and Washington never compelled India to act against Iran
over nuclear issues or abide by the UNSC sanctions against Tehran.27
26Akhilesh Pillalamarri, “Why India Should ‘Look West’ Instead,” The Diplomat, March 07, 2016, accessed at: https://thediplomat.com/2016/03/why-india-should-look-west-
instead/. 27Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, "Chabahar Port: The End of Gwadar?” Global Village Space,
December 27, 2018, accessed at: https://www.globalvillagespace.com/chabahar-port-the-
end-of-gwadar/.
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(ii) UAE, Dubai Deployment
India has been developing closer ties with many Gulf States. Its
maritime collaboration with the UAE is a vivid example of the fact that
India has been successful in its Look West Policy. India has been
engaging the UAE in many joint exercises such as Gulf Star-1 which
held in 2018 and also in training exercises to share maritime security
objectives in the Gulf and the Indian Ocean.28
Three Indian naval vessels; the Deepak, Tarkash and Delhi from
its Western Naval Command were deployed in Dubai in 2016 for one-
month time to strengthen maritime relations with the aim of “enhancing
cooperation and sharing experiences of naval operations including
disaster management and the fight against maritime terrorism and
piracy.”29
India’s Naval Modernization
The Sino-Indian strategic competition encourages Indian military
establishment to develop the offensive capacity. Various significant
headways have been made and tests are done as India gears up to address
28“Two Indian Ships Take Part in UAE-India Naval Exercise,” Gulf News, March 18, 2018, accessed at: https://gulfnews.com/uae/two-indian-ships-take-part-in-uae-india-
naval-exercise-1.2190342. 29“Indian Naval Vessels to Make Port of Call in Dubai," Khaleej Times, accessed June
13, 2019, https://www.khaleejtimes.com/nation/general/indian-naval-vessels-to-make-
port-of-call-in-dubai.
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security challenges rising from its neighbors who face the antagonistic
Indian behaviour. India is following an offensive realist approach towards
its neighbours and has grand plans to keep its hegemony in the region. The
2015 Indian Maritime Doctrine underscores the need to show a solid Navy
existence in the Indian Ocean Region to reinforce the seaside resistance
and to show a purpose to secure strategic sea lanes of communication. The
maritime capability sets out the objective of developing around 212
warships and 458 maritime aircrafts, as compared to just 138 warships and
235 aircrafts in 2017, to turn into a ground-breaking three-dimensional
blue-water power able to viably guard India's growing key maritime
interests. India wants powerful maritime capabilities to support its
increasing international trade activities by fast-expanding connectivity
with the world for further economic growth.30
Some of the significant accomplishments of the Indian Navy in weapon
advancement are listed below:
Induction of Three Aircraft Carriers
Carriers are costly images of a nation’s esteem. India at present has just
a single operational plane carrying warship – the INS Vikramaditya.
The Vikrant is the second carrier which is under development at Cochin
30Kartik Bommakanti, “India and China’s Space and Naval Capabilities: A Comparative
Analysis,” Occasional Paper (New Delhi: Observer Research Foundation, 23 July 2018),
2018, 41–43.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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Shipyard and will initiate its ocean preliminaries by 2020.31 Russian-
made MiG-29K contender planes would work from the deck of both the
carriers. The IN has put out a proposition for its third Air Craft Carrier
(ACC), probably named the Vishal, which is due to enter service by
2030s.
Induction of Six Nuclear Submarines
India consented to buy six French Scorpene subs while making
endeavours to update its Kilo-class submarines into 'missile competent'
vessels. The total of six submarines from France will cost India $700m.
The Navy of India will get an approval to construct the progressed
Scorpene submarines in the shipbuilding yards run by the state.32 On
December 4, 2018, while talking on the Indian Navy Day, Chief of Naval
Staff Admiral Sunil Lanba disclosed the blueprint for a persistent naval
build-up planned to make India the main military force in the Indian
Ocean Region. Lanba said: "If I crystal gaze ahead to 2050, we will be a
200 ship, 500 flying craft world-class Navy,"33 revealing the expected
power levels. The manufacture time for the new 62 warships and
submarines will be spread over 10 years. The present strength of Indian
Naval warships is around 140. Among the important declarations he
made were the initiation of development of Indian third ACC in three
31Robert Beckhusen, “India’s Aircraft Carriers: A Giant Waste of Time?,” The National Interest, December 24, 2018, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/indias-aircraft-
carriers-giant-waste-time-39672. 32“India - Navy Modernization,” Global Security, accessed June 21, 2019,
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/india/in-navy-development.htm. 33“India - Navy Modernization.”
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years, and approvals for projects to manufacture six extra routinely fueled
Project 75 (India) submarines with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP).34
Stealth Frigates/Corvettes
The Shivalik class warships are one of the most up to date surface warriors
of the Indian Navy. Additionally, these are the main Indian-made warships
with improved stealth features. Due to their size, the ships of the Shivalik
class could be even used as destroyers. However, their weapon is
unreasonably light for a genuine destroyer. Still, these warships are truly
fit and as of now are among the world's most fatal frigates.35 A total of
three ships were built somewhere in between 2000 and 2010 and right now
these warships are active. These Indian frigates have a solid anti-ship and
land assault capability. They are equipped with a general 8-cell Vertical
Launch system for BRAHMOS rapid cruise missiles and Klub-N anti-ship
voyage missile.36The BRAHMOS rockets have a top speed of Mach 3
(3,700 km/h) and can reach the ocean or land targets at the range of 290
km. Most Indian warships are loaded with BRAHMOS. The Klub-N anti-
ship voyage missile (SS-N-27 Sizzler) is a copycat of the Russian Kalibr-
NK and has a range of 440-660 km.37
34 Ibid. 35“Shivalik Class Frigate," Military-Today.Com, accessed June 21, 2019,
http://www.military-today.com/navy/shivalik_class.htm. 36“Shivalik Class Frigate | Military-Today.Com.” 37 Ibid.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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Barak 8 Air Defense
India has carried out a successful test shooting of its Medium Range
Surface to Air Missile (MRSAM) which was propelled from Indian Navy
Ships: Chennai (D65) and Kochi (D64). Co-created by Israel and India,
the weapon, additionally known as the Barak-8, can supposedly engage
with the target as much as 150 km away.38It is 0.225 meters in distance
across, about 4.5 meters long, and weighs 275 kg which includes 60 kg
warhead. It has the maximum speed of Mach 2 with a greatest operational
range of 70 km (that has been expanded to 100 km). The missile provides
guard against any threat to the marine field from air, land or ocean. It is
intended to protect against short to long run airborne dangers including
drones, helicopters, fixed-wing aircraft and projectiles.
BrahMos Anti-Ship Missile
Brahmos is a supersonic cruise missile which is rapid and created by
BrahMos Aerospace, a joint endeavour between the Defense Research and
Development Organization (DRDO) of India and NPO Mashinostroeyenia
(NPOM) of Russia. The missile is named after two waterways, the Indian
Brahmaputra and the Russian Moskva. In February 1998, India and Russia
agreed to an arrangement to set up BrahMos Aerospace for creating the
BrahMos missiles. In June 2001, the first BrahMos missile was tested at
Chandipur in Orissa Coast. Since then, it has been effectively tested from
a number of platforms including warships and land-based objects. The
38“India Successfully Test Fires MRSAM," Missile Threat, accessed June 21, 2019,
https://missilethreat.csis.org/india-successfully-tests-surface-to-air-missile/.
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missile can be designed for land, ocean and aerial platforms. It has a
booster and an extra tail for stability in the flight.39
Naval Exercises
The real maritime strength of India lies in its alliances and joint naval
ventures with other nations. These joint maritime exercises reinforce
India's position in the Indian Ocean vis-à-vis China. The Malabar
maritime exercise has been conducted each year except from 1998 to 2002
when India disbanded this exercise in the wake of nuclear explosion in
1998.
The Malabar 2007 was the primary exercise that was carried out
outside the Indian Ocean before the 2009 Malabar drill which was
trilateral and included Japan too. The yearly trilateral maritime exercise
between India, Japan and the US is being viewed as a threat by China.
India started holding naval drills with every significant naval force in
accordance with its multi-vectored international strategy that incorporates
the USA, Russia, France, UK and Singapore.40
39“BrahMos Supersonic Cruise Missile," Army Technology, accessed June 21, 2019, https://www.army-technology.com/projects/brahmossupersoniccru/. 40“(PDF) India-US MALABAR Naval Exercises: Trends and Tribulations | Gurpreet
Khurana," Academia.Edu, accessed June 21, 2019,
https://www.academia.edu/7879273/India-
US_MALABAR_Naval_Exercises_Trends_and_Tribulations
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Regional Implications
It has been established that India is expanding its maritime interests and
imperatives in the Indian Ocean Region. It is putting its maximum
resources whatsoever to gain the control of these waters. India has proved
offensive in its pursuit of naval dominance. Maritime aspirations of the
South Asian country is continuously widening and expanding instead of
restraining. India’s aspirations for the regional policeman role and its
sphere of influence coupled with ostensible willingness to play a pivotal
role in America’s Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China is alarming for
the region. Moreover, India’s growing maritime groupings, such as Quad
and naval modernization have grave implications for the strategic stability
of South Asia.
The divergence between India and China on various issues
discussed earlier is manifesting more vividly in the waters of the Indian
Ocean Region and geopolitics, which also includes geostrategic, has taken
the lead again despite increased relevance of geo-economics. Moreover, as
geo-economics is being used as the main factor to lure the regional
stakeholders for geopolitical gains, all these three facets are interwoven
and can’t be separated.
Unfortunately, no third party is playing any role to ease the
situation. Rather, the more influential third party in the IOR i.e. the USA
has taken a belligerent stance against China. The intensity of the
geopolitics in the region is more a creation of the US as Chinese
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containment is now among one of its major foreign policy objectives.
America’s Pivot moves towards Asia and its efforts to use the Indo-Pacific
region as a chessboard to play this new containment game against the so-
called revisionist China is making the competition nasty and dirty. The US
is in a new Cold War with China especially Trump’s attitude has appeared
aggressive, impulsive and inconsistent. This situation does not bode well
for the stability of the region.
Besides the factors discussed above, the volatility of the region is
another major catalyst to exacerbate the implications of the geopolitical
competition between the two major powers. Terrorism, insecurity,
instability, violence and conflicts all across the Indian Ocean Region seem
to have become permanent features of the region. Besides, possession of
the Weapons of Mass Destruction by the region’s contesting nations with
divergent outlook and conflicting strategic cultures has an unusual impact
in the regional security dynamics. The order of the world is in rapid
transition and over the recent past decades power centres have been
shifting from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific, but transition process has
not finished yet and things are unsettled up till now. Various divergent
forces are at play and a great game is underway to gain maximum out of it,
thus making the phase very risky.
Conclusion
Expansion of India in the Indian Ocean Region is a security dilemma.
India is acting as an offensive realist power the way it is rapidly expanding
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
39
its weapon arsenal and military capabilities which has now become a
permanent feature of the region. This has created a perpetual security
dilemma leading to an unending arms race. Nuclearization and
militarization of the IOR is an expected outcome of this security dilemma
entailing arms race. Nuclearization, along with nuclear arms race,
particularly induction of the destabilizing weapons such as Ballistic
Missile Defense Systems, nuclear-powered submarines and many others
has further complicated the situation creating a real risk of deterrence and
strategic instability. All these developments in the IOR have permanently
uprooted the chances of the Indian Ocean to become a Zone of Peace – a
dream which was once visualized by the regional stakeholders.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
40
Implications of Pakistan’s Maritime Blindness –
Lessons from China’s Maritime Strategy
Ambassador (R) Ghalib Iqbal*
Abstract
Since its inception, Pakistan has been more into land battles and
neglectful of the importance of maritime. This has caused Pakistan to
suffer from maritime blindness despite the fact that it inherited a maritime
legacy. This paper primarily examines the implications of maritime
blindness for Pakistan and draws lessons that Pakistan can learn from
China’s maritime strategy. In this study, the historical context of
Pakistan’s maritime blindness is analyzed with reference to the decline of
the Mughal Empire and the advent of the British East India Company in
the subcontinent. This paper further explores the reasons of why Pakistan
kept putting maritime affairs on a back burner throughout its short history
and how these matters have hindered Pakistan from achieving its desired
objectives in maritime domain. While discussing maritime blindness, the
paper also incorporates a comprehensive analysis of its implications for
Pakistan’s Navy and industries. This study concludes with the
recommendations and lessons which can be learnt from China’s maritime
strategy.
* The writer is a former naval officer and an engineering graduate. Mr. Iqbal joined the
Foreign Service in 1983 and served as ambassador of Pakistan to many foreign
destinations. He is also a recipient of Civil awards of Spain (2011), “Ordendel Mérito
Civil”, and Italy “Stella d’Itlia” (2012).
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
41
Introduction
Since its independence in 1947, Pakistan was embroiled into certain
insecurities. Its hostile neighbor, India, soon after the independence
forcibly annexed Kashmir, Hyderabad and Goa. The partition had put the
newly formed country geographically in a unique position as the country
was divided into two units; each was lying on either side of India. On the
western borders, an unaccommodating and belligerent neighbor,
Afghanistan, coupled with the former USSR ambitions to reach hot
waters, further added the security apprehensions. Whereas on the eastern
side, it was India which was eying at the nascent state and aiming to
debilitate Pakistan so much so that it would beseech India to take it back.
In this situation where Pakistan was already surrounded by hostile
countries and deprived of receiving its due share after the partition, the
Pakistan Navy started its journey of equipping itself with modern
weaponry and becoming a potent force that could safeguard national
maritime interests of Pakistan. At that time, the navy had only sixteen
ships and ninety two commissioned officers. Despite having a modest
force in the beginning, a visionary man – Admiral H.M.S Choudhry – who
was the first Pakistani Commander in Chief envisioned the need for
having a strong navy that could protect maritime interests of the nation in
the long run. This need was also felt because of the fact that the two wings
of Pakistan were separated by the 3000 miles sea route that served as the
only reliable means, in times of war and peace, through which both far-
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
42
flung wings were able to maintain bilateral communication and
transportation of goods and services.
In contrast to the defence doctrine advocated by Admiral
Chaudhry, the then C-in-C Army General Ayub believed otherwise.
Having a typical continental mindset, he was of the opinion that the
strengthening of the western wing of Pakistan would guarantee the
defence of East Pakistan. Hence, he disregarded the need for keeping sea
routes open in the time of hostility with India. General Ayub thought the
war with India would not last very long and, thus, he dismissed the idea of
protecting the 3000 miles of sea lanes. Since then this idea emerged that
Pakistan could conquer Delhi and reply strongly to any Indian aggression
if it had a strong and tough land force. Consequently in view of these
events, Admiral Choudhry resigned in protest. But the latter events proved
that General Ayub’s concept was faulty and based on misconceptions.
Ayub’s defense concept was exposed but at the cost of huge loss. This
trend of sea- blindness continued in subsequent military and political
regimes. Unfortunately, still Pakistan stands at the same place, where the
land based security is more important thereby impeding the concerned
authorities to understand the importance of maritime.
Historical Context of Pakistan’s Maritime Blindness
Pakistan though inherited a rich maritime legacy, it has been suffering
from maritime blindness since its inception. Our population – a martial
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
43
race who won freedom from British clutches – was more into land battles
and neglectful of any knowledge related to maritime issues. It is a known
fact that the British conquered the far-flung corners of the world and
established their hegemony by securing significant sea lanes for their
commerce. Their Navy had a sway on those waters and protected their
commercial interests for centuries. The East India Company which started
off as a small trading company in the early 17th century and sought trading
concessions from the Mughals soon engulfed the whole empire, drained
the empire’s resources and brought down the Mughals on their knees.1The
craftsmanship of the Indians were quite famous all around the globe and
the English traders were fascinated by these refined crafts. The Mughal
emperor, Aurangzeb, was the only ruler who was able to grasp the ploy of
the English traders. He attempted to reduce the losses but failed, and
eventually the land trade routes diminished and the Mughals collapsed.2
This deteriorated the Mughals’ authority which was challenged by the
centrifugal forces led by the Marathas and the Sikhs, and the Mughals
could not resist them for long.
The decline of the Mughals was due to the fact that they were more
driven by landward concerns and developed the cities inward. They built a
strong military force at the expense of ignoring a huge coastline belt which
could provide them ideal strategic positions with regards to exploiting and
protecting major trade routes. The sea blindness and lack of interest in
1 Philip Lawson, The East India Company: A History (London: Routledge, 2014), 122-
130. 2 Shireen Moosvi, "People, Taxation and Trade in Mughal India," Indian Historical
Review 37, no. 1 (July 2010)
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
44
maritime thus crippled them, providing the outside powers an opportunity
to exploit Indian resources first and then gradually secure a strong
foothold. The Portuguese were the first to land in India, later the Dutch
and finally the English enslaved the entire region.3
The British, clever and crafty, didn’t assemble any valuable
maritime infrastructure. Rather, they used what was built and left over by
the Portuguese and the Dutch.4 Building their sea-lane prowess and
establishing a chain of fortifications on land helped the Portuguese to gain
supremacy over others. In order to build their hegemony in the Indian
Ocean, they chose Goa as their capital which was strategically lying near
the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.
During the British rule, industrial and technological investments in
the land today called as Pakistan was negligible. The investments were
worthless, and all this was done quite deliberately and intentionally. The
basic reason of depriving today’s Pakistan of industrial investments was to
encourage cotton producers in Indian Punjab to grow cotton more and
more so that the supply of cotton to cotton-starving textile industries in
Europe could not be disrupted. Another reason was to build an army
comprising indigenous people who could be called to fight the wars of the
British Empire and protect the empire’s imperial interests in Burma,
Africa and other places.
3 O.H.K. Spate and A.T.A. Learmonth, India and Pakistan: A General and Regional
Geography (London: Routledge, 2017), 344-357. 4 Kerry Ward, Networks of Empire (Cambridge University Press, 2009), 251-260.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
45
The British understood the strategic importance of this region.
Whatever they built was based around the coastal line. Thus, they also
comprehended the strategic importance of Karachi and the Makran coast.
This comprehension is reflected in a memorandum supposedly written by
Lord Mountbatten on May 19, 1948: “Among all the important Muslim
belt, the Western Punjab, the Indus Valley and the Baluchistan are vital
strategic points. They are the primary defence points. Opponents can only
take effective measures through the open waters of Karachi. If the British
Commonwealth and the United States want to protect their vital interests
in the Middle East, then the best and stable location for defense is the
Pakistani territory. So, it is the location of Pakistan that is keystone of
strategic arch of the wide and vulnerable waters of the Indian Ocean.”5
Major Reasons for Maritime Blindness
In essence, the major reasons for maritime blindness are:
Pakistan has inherited the continental mind-set of living off
the rivers and plains rather than the seas.
Pakistan’s coast is scantily populated except Karachi while
coastal towns of Gwadar and Pasni lack drinking water.
History taught to students at school and college level neglects
the role of sea power in nation-building and mostly highlights
the wars fought on land.
5 Ian Copland, "Lord Mountbatten and the integration of the Indian states: A
reappraisal," The Journal of Imperial and Commonwealth History 21, no. 2 (1993): 385-
408.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
46
Pakistan has been facing security threats right from its
independence, hence, could not spare enough financial
resources for the maritime sector.
Policy makers lack the required knowledge of maritime
affairs.
Lack of communication networks and basic facilities along
the coastal belt has exacerbated the situation.
The maritime sector’s development has been thwarted due to
the absence of maritime legislations. The first ever maritime
policy was issued in 2002.
Pakistan failed to understand the benefits of its maritime
geography, nor comprehend true potential of its maritime
power as defined by Admiral Mahan.6
Implications of Maritime Blindness
Prior discussing the impact of maritime blindness, it is important to have a
quick look at maritime strengths of Pakistan which is gifted with
approximately 1,050 km long coastline. In terms of coastline length,
Pakistan is ahead of 68 countries out of 142 coastal states. Pakistan is
situated along the important sea trade routes and lies near the Persian Gulf
in the North Arabian Sea. Pakistan is also blessed with Exclusive
Economic Zone and Continental Shelf where important activities
6 Vijay Sakhuja, "Pakistan's Naval strategy: Past and future." Strategic Analysis 26, no. 4
(2002): 493-507.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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including fishing, mining, maritime research and oil exploration take
place. Approximately 150 million barrels of crude oil is transported
through the Persian Gulf lying right across the Pakistani coast. Moreover,
Pakistan provides China, Afghanistan and Central Asian states the shortest
sea route. This does not only highlight the importance of maritime
economic potential of Pakistan, but also underscores the geo-strategic and
geo-military position the country is gifted with.
Pakistan has suffered a great deal on account of decades-old maritime
blindness in the following domains:
Naval Forces: The Pakistan navy lags behind the Indian Navy in terms of
number of combat vessels, manpower and air assets. This is a sad reality
that Pakistan despite relying heavily on seaborne trade and having a fierce
rivalry with hostile India, has not invested as much on the development of
its navy as it should have keeping in view the scale of the country’s
maritime interests. Out of other reasons that have impeded the
development of the Pak navy from reaching its full potential, the primary
reason has remained the continental mindset of the ruling elite.
Our arch rival India is the most ambitious military player in the Indian
Ocean. India with its hegemonic Blue Water aspiration has spent lavishly
on its maritime capability. It has become one of the largest arms importers
and manufactures of modern ships and aircrafts, nuclear and conventional
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
48
submarines and aircraft carriers.7 In addition to numerous naval bases and
air stations along its own coasts, it continues to expand its arc of influence
by acquiring basing rights in other countries of the Indian Ocean Region
such as Mauritius, Madagascar, Seychelles, Iran and recently Oman.
Indian’s military intervention in neighboring states and its involvement in
regime change such as in Nepal, Sri Lanka and lately the Maldives may
have serious repercussions. The prevalent mindset amongst the state elite
here is what Napoleon once said, “Je veux conqueror la mer par la
puissance de terre” [I shall conquer the sea by the power of the land.]8
However, Napoleon did realize later that the upshot of the great wars
fought on land is eventually decided by naval strengths of the rival
powers. British Admiral John Fisher best summed up the importance of
Naval Forces in 1904:“If the Navy is not supreme, no army, however
large, is of slightest use. It is not the invasion we have to fear if our Navy
is beaten; it is starvation.”9
Ports and Harbors: Ports and harbors play a pivotal role in consolidating
a country’s economy and help countries prosper significantly. For sake of
comparison, India with 7500 km coastline has 14 major ports and 187
minor ports. Despite 1000 Km of coastline, Pakistan has only three ports.
Karachi and Port Qasim are the mainstay of our sea trade. Karachi port
presently handles 75% of the entire international cargo whereas the
7Sohail A. Azmie, "Maritime Security: Pakistan's Perspective," Defence Journal 21, no. 3 (2017): 71-72. 8 Nicholas A. Lambert, "Admiral Sir John Fisher and the concept of flotilla defence,
1904-1909," The Journal of Military History 59, no. 4 (1995): 639. 9Sohail A. Azmie, "Maritime Awareness in Pakistan." CISS Insight Journal 5, no. 4
(2017): 62-85.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
49
remaining cargo is taken care by Port Qasim. Karachi port was established
in 1987. It has 27 general cargo berths and 3 dedicated container terminals
in private sector. It has been managed by the Karachi Port Trust (KPT)
under KPT Act, 1866. The Port Qasim Authority (PQA) was established
through an Act of the Parliament on June 29, 1973. The port became fully
operational by early 1983. It has total 10 berths, which are managed by
private sector, while Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is handled only by the
PQA. The Gwadar Port Authority (GPA) was established through GPA
Ordinance of 2002 and it became operational in 2008. It has 3 multi-
purpose berths. The China Overseas Port Holding Company (PCHC) is
operating Gwadar Port under the Concession Agreement. Despite the
advantages of geostrategic locations, our ports have poor hinterland
connectivity. Railway network is not well-developed, which accounts for
low participation of railway in cargo handling. Karachi port is relatively a
busy port and traffic congestion becomes one of its shortcomings. Labor
Union issues are there and ineffective resolutions are also one of the
weaknesses. The environmental effects of dredging process are
detrimental and their ineffective handling disturbs the marine life. Along
with environmental pollution, dredging issues are a common problem of
all these ports.
Mercantile Marine: Pakistan is de facto an island state as about 95% of
its trade and 100% of POL supplies are sea borne. It is mind-boggling that
a country relying heavily on seaborne trade could afford to ignore this all
important aspects of Mercantile Marine. In the beginning, there were only
four ocean going ships included in the merchant marine fleet of Pakistan
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
50
and all were small in size. This number later grew to fourteen in 1950 and
then swelled further to 71 in 1971. In 1974, the government nationalized
shipping and established Pakistan Shipping Corporation by merging nine
private shipping companies. Later in 1979, Pakistan Shipping Corporation
was merged with National Shipping Corporation to form the PNSC and
the combined fleet strength rose to a total of 74 ships. Since then, despite
enormous growth potential, the shipping sector of Pakistan is on the
decline. Right now, there are hardly ten ships included in Pakistan’s
merchant fleet (5 x bulk carriers & 5 oilers). Today, Pakistan’s annual
trade is about 100 million tonnes, of which, the national carriers carry
about 5% against world recommended 40%. Resultantly, the annual
freight bill exceeds US $4 billion, which accounts for huge financial losses
on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
CPEC & Maritime Security: Success of CPEC apart from other factors
depends on the provision of foolproof security both at sea and land. While
plenty of efforts have been made by the government including rising of a
new force to address the land based threats but maritime security remains
the neglected area. Pakistan’s maritime interests will expand enormously
once CPEC is fully operational. Moreover, in the new paradigm the
conventional state-based threats alongside Violent Non-State Actors
(VNSAs) and hybrid warfare is surfacing as the new phenomenon.10
Nowhere is this more pronounced than in the Indian Ocean and its
peripheries. Any incident or attack on ships plying to and from Gwadar
10 Inayat Kalim, "Gwadar Port: Serving Strategic Interests of Pakistan," South Asian
Studies 31, no. 1 (June 2016): 207-222.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
51
port could prove a massive setback for CPEC. For some inexplicable
reasons, the government has apparently not yet accorded due focus to this
aspect. Since our maritime interests, especially the CPEC project, are
under hybrid threats, the Pak Navy being the ultimate sentinel of the
nation’s extensive and diverse maritime interests will have a major role to
play.11 In the absence of peace and stability in the region marred with
political volatility, success of CPEC may remain a pipe dream.
Blue Economy: Pakistan is gifted with 1000 km coastline that includes
the Exclusive Economic Zone (240,000 sq km) and the extended
Continental Shelf (50,000 sq km). This bodes well for a thriving Blue
Economy, but little has been done in this regard. The offshore region of
Pakistan consists of two basins, the Indus and Makran. The Indus basin
constitutes the 2nd largest delta system in the world after the Bay of
Bengal. The delta covers nearly 600,000 hectares and is rich in fish, oil
and gas, and is home to mangroves, which support a rich biodiversity that
is an important source of the food chain of the living resources in the north
Arabian Sea.12 It requires a thorough understanding of and the
commitment to the concept and concerted efforts with international
assistance to achieve the goal.
11 Baber Ali Bhatti, "CPEC and Maritime Security: An Analysis of Pakistan Navy's Initiatives." Defence Journal 21, no. 12 (2018): 40-41. 12 "History of Offshore Exploration Activities in Pakistan." LinkedIn. Accessed
January 9, 2020,
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/history-offshore-exploration-activities-pakistan-bilal-
akram.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
52
Fisheries: Fisheries are responsible for providing around one fourth of the
global supply of animal protein. Pakistan is ranked 28th in terms of
production and 50th in terms of export but contributes only 0.27% in the
world’s export market which has a total volume of US$ 55 billion.
Fishery, if regulated properly, can potentially play far more important role
in Pakistan’s national economy and provision of food. It provides
employment to about 500,000 fisherman directly, whereas, more than 1
million people are employed in ancillary industries. There are about
20,000 fishing boats in coastal areas of Pakistan which operate in shallow
coastal waters, as well as in offshore areas. The Fishery sector in Pakistan
has the capacity to export fish worth US$500 million and concerted efforts
of the government can further increase this capacity. Fishing also depends
on quality of fishing boats. Pakistani fishing boats are of manual type and
very seldom use modern techniques for laying / recovery of nets or
trawling. The storage compartments are also of the old vintage as they
carry ice from the harbor.13 Pakistani trawlers don’t have fishery sonars or
other modern gadgetry for locating the fish stocks. Pakistan’s fish stocks
are also depleting due to various reasons such as excessive fishing, fishing
in the breeding seasons, the use of unauthorized nets, illegal fishing by
intruders, lack of political will by the government, lack of alternate jobs
for fisherman during off seasons, lack of use of modern technology and
non-supportive banking rules for small fisherman, and marine pollution.
The coastal areas of Pakistan are by far the most biologically productive
zones, endowed with rich, unique natural ecosystems that can contribute
13 Ahmad Rashid Malik, "The Sino-Pakistani Trade and Investment Relations." Margalla
Papers 17, no. 1 (2013): 201-221.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
53
significantly towards national economy and growth. The fragility of the
coastal ecosystem and their interconnectedness requires a holistic
approach to be adopted to manage the complex ecosystem.
Ship Building Industry: Karachi Shipbuilding and Engineering Works
(KSEW) which used to construct vessels for Pakistan National Shipping
Corporation was as good as dead about a decade ago due to the neglect of
governments. At present, the KS&EW is being supported because of
orders from the Pakistan Navy. However, it requires governmental support
and mega investment from the private sector to upgrade its facilities.
Recently, the government has approved setting up of ship-repair facility at
Gwadar which is a welcome step as a large number of merchant vessels
traverse the nearby Gulf of Oman each day.14 These ships definitely need
routine periodical maintenance or even emergency docking at times. Such
facilities, both inside and outside the Gulf are limited and if Pakistan can
develop ship repairs and maintenance facilities on modern lines, inclusive
of skilled manpower, covered bays and synchro-lifts, it can easily fill the
existing vacuum.
Ship Breaking Industry: In the 1980’s, Pakistan was rated as 2nd in the
world for its ship breaking industry. Gadani has over 125 plots for ship-
breaking and capacity to produce more than 1 million ton of steel and
14 "Pakistan Approves Setting up New Shipyard at Gwadar | Hellenic Shipping News
Worldwide," Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide, Online Daily Newspaper on Hellenic
and International Shipping, last modified March 22, 2018,
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/pakistan-approves-setting-up-new-shipyard-at-
gwadar/.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
54
other raw material for domestic industries.15 Unfortunately, due to the
changes in tax regime during 1980’s, this industry came to a grinding halt.
However, in the recent past, some efforts have been made for its revival,
but again due to manual techniques, non-availability of new modern
equipment, poor safety standards and tax regimes, this industry is still not
viable. Workers are made to operate in extremely harsh and hazardous
conditions with negligible facilities; many deaths, through accidents or
exposure, go unreported. With the coming into force of the Hong Kong
Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships
2009 and new EU regulations discouraging its citizens from breaking
ships in countries not employing the desired methods of dismantling,
Pakistan would need to either conform or further lose its business.
Mangroves Forests: Pakistan has 6th largest Mangroves forest in the
world.16 They are home to several species of flora and fauna besides,
protecting the coast against erosion. It is estimated that 1 hectare of
mangrove could produce an annual yield of 100 kilograms fish and 25
kilograms shrimp. It is unfortunate that the true potential of mangroves has
not been utilized.
Non-Coherent Policy Approach: At present, we have dozens of different
maritime stakeholders to safeguard maritime interests of Pakistan.
Furthermore, the 18th amendment has also dealt a blow to administration
15 Sandra Richard, "A view of Pakistan's industrial development," Asian Survey (1965),
590-595. 16 "WWF-Pakistan Initiates 100,000 Mangroves Plantation Drive," Daily Times, last
modified August 23, 2019, https://dailytimes.com.pk/452892/wwf-pakistan-initiates-
100000-mangroves-plantation-drive/.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
55
of the maritime sector in Pakistan as the maritime sector deals with the
outside world, whereas, provinces have been assigned responsibilities
prematurely.
Lessons from China’s Maritime Strategy
Over the last decade or so, China’s maritime strategy has revolved around
the following contours:
a. Modernization & Capacity Building of the PLA (Navy)
enabling it to accomplish regional and extra-regional ambitions
b. Maintaining Naval Presence beyond the Asia Pacific (Maritime
piracy operations off the East African coast and the Gulf of
Aden)
c. Domination of seas strategy as evident by its actions in the
South China Sea
d. Development of additional ports and bases
e. Development of Mercantile Marine Fleet (China is the world’s
largest ship builder)
f. The Maritime Silk Road Initiative
g. Enhanced focus on Blue Economy
It is glaringly obvious that unlike Pakistan, China has been focusing on
absolutely right areas in maritime domain. Adm Liu Huaqing; commander
of the PLA Navy (from 1982 to 1988), is considered to be responsible for
the modernization of the PLA (Navy). Liu entertained a vision of China as
a vibrant sea power whose maritime ambitions manifested themselves in a
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
56
navy capable of protecting seagoing trade and staking the nation’s claim to
great power status.17 It is known what our policy makers did as far as
capacity building of the Navy was concerned. Ironically, not much has
changed even now.
As her naval strength increased, China is adopting an increasingly
assertive attitude towards its maritime claims in the South China Sea. One
of the priorities of the Chinese maritime strategy is to protect its wealthy
South China Sea coastal provinces and the sea-lanes. The vast majority of
China’s energy imports and other goods pass through the South China Sea.
Pakistan needs to learn this and learn fast.
With no sustainable presence in the Indian Ocean, Beijing’s energy
imports are highly vulnerable in the event of military standoff with New
Delhi or Washington. Former Chinese President Hu Jintao talked of the
“Malacca Dilemma” and the need to secure China’s strategic and
economic interests in the region.18 This shows that only a potent Navy can
help protect maritime interest and Sea Lines of communication.
Conclusion
Pakistan is a bona fide maritime nation with wide ranging maritime
interests and objectives. There is plenty to learn from China’s evolution of
the Maritime Strategy. There is no denying the fact that maritime domain
17 Bernard D. Cole, "China's Maritime Strategy," Hampton Roads International Security
Quarterly (2002), 136-184. 18 "China's 'Malacca Dilemma?" Jamestown, last modified April 12, 2006,
https://jamestown.org/program/chinas-malacca-dilemma/.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
57
is technology oriented and resource intensive. But the question is: can
Pakistan afford to keep neglecting maritime domain on one pretext or the
other? Lack of industries and resources in the past has also contributed
towards negligence of maritime affairs. This needs to be stopped now as
sea blindness has already cost Pakistan dearly.
To evolve a coherent maritime strategy, a concerted effort is
required to make up for years of neglect. Almost all elements of maritime
power warrant immediate attention not merely as defense imperative but
more importantly for huge economic benefits. Pakistan’s continental
orientation is not going to work in the new world order. Pakistani policy
planners, decision makers and intelligentsia have all realized the
importance of the maritime sector and shifted the focus to the Sea.
Changing mindsets is never easy, but hopefully the transition has already
begun, especially after CPEC. What needed now is to give it direction and
momentum. The point worth understanding is that building ports and
shipyards does not make a country a great maritime power; running them
well does. Having a vision is one thing; the trick lies in converting this
vision into a viable reality.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
58
Plight of Fishermen Imprisoned in India &
Pakistan
Nida Hameed*& Ayesha Urooj**
Abstract
Pakistan and India often arrest fishermen of each other because of the
absence of a definite border in the Arabian Sea and fishermen not having
technology advanced navigation aided boats to know their exact
whereabouts, hence trespass into the neighbor’s territorial waters.
Unfortunately, due to sluggish justice system, fishermen end up locked in
jails for months or even years despite the fact that, twice a year, both the
states exchange a list of prisoners kept in each other’s custody. This study
assesses the plight of fishermen imprisoned in India and Pakistan in the
backdrop of the lingering coastal dispute between India and Pakistan.
Further, this study discusses United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea
(UNCLOS) violations by both states as well as highlights the legal
procedures followed in both the states and impediments faced by
fishermen in the respective countries. The conclusion is that the enduring
rivalry between India and Pakistan has led to the suffering of their people.
* Nida Hameed is Research Associate at Maritime Study Forum. Her M. Phil is from National Defence University (NDU), Islamabad, in Peace and Conflict Studies. Her
primary research focus is the ship-breaking sector and Coastal Development.
** Ayesha Urooj has done her Masters in History and M. Phil in Governance and Public
Policy. Her areas of expertise include policy evaluation, cyber security and digital rights.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
59
There is a serious lack of effort into resolving the issue of imprisoned
fishermen in the long term. An ideal situation would be a minimum
hostility between the two countries, development of mutual trust through
Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) and resolving the bilateral issues
in general and the Sir Creek issue in particular.
Introduction
India and Pakistan both lie along the Arabian Sea. Unfortunately, sea
border has not been clearly demarked between the two countries in the
Arabian Sea as India and Pakistan have neither agreed upon nor signed
any final pact to decide their maritime boundary. As a result, often Indian
and Pakistani fishermen fall prey to the fractured relationship between the
two neighbors. Destitute fishermen communities live along the coast of
Pakistan and India and are solely reliant on fishing for their livelihood.
Due to no demarcation, fishermen from both states end up crossing their
own water limits and enter the other country’s waters. In search of fish,
Pakistani fish catching boats go across the border and enter into Indian
territory in search of more valuable fish like squids, prawns, shrimp and
pomfret etc. whereas Indian fishermen also intrude into the Pakistani
waters in search of squid, ribbon fish, red snapper, tiger prawn, etc. This
crossing leads to their arrest and their boats confiscated. These innocent
fishermen from both the sides remain stuck behind bars for months and
years.
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Every year, countless fishermen that sometimes mount to
thousands from both countries who not have boats endowed with the latest
navigational technology, while fishing, are arrested for trespassing into the
neighbor’s territorial waters. Their release completely hangs upon the
status of political tension or ease between the two neighbors at that
particular time. If their relations are hostile, chances of fishermen facing
awful circumstances in prison are high. This is reflected from an incident
that took place when India seized a cargo ship coming from Pakistan in Sir
Creek after the Mumbai Parliament attacks on charge of being involved in
suspicious activities. However, if both states are enjoying cordial
relationship then chances of release of fishermen are thick as this has
happened in the past many times when both countries released each
other’s prisoners in a quid pro quo as a good will gesture. Although such
occasions are few and far between, the release of prisoners as a confidence
building measure is always appreciable.
Further literature on the coastal communities and fisher folk of
South Asia generally limits itself to the ethnic and cultural descriptions –
concentrating on social activities, norms, customs, family structure,
knowledge and local patterns.1 There has been hardly an in-depth-study on
fisher folk imprisoned in India and Pakistan whereas major conflicts like
Kashmir have been discussed at various forums and their solutions have
also been suggested multiple times. Seldom does it that there is a mention
of the grave but dull events taking black along the sea border these
1 P. R. Mathur, The Mappila Fisherfolk of Kerala: A Study in Inter-relationship Between
Habitat, Technology, Economy, Society, and Culture (Trivandrum: Kerala Historical
Society, 1977)
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countries, which are almost equally damaging to the fisher folk and have
dire consequences for these communities.2 The imprisoned fisher folk may
be invisible, marginal and poor, but they carry equal, if not more
implications for the coastal communities.3
This research paper is divided into three sections. The first section
examines the lingering coastal dispute between India and Pakistan. What
exactly is the nature of this dispute? And what is the significance of this
dispute with reference to the Law of the Sea? The second section reviews
UNCLOS and its violation by India and Pakistan. The third section
analyzes the legal procedures and impediments faced by fishermen in the
neighbor country. Finally, the article brings forth recommendations based
on the literature review for further research.
Disputed Coastline between India and Pakistan
India and Pakistan share a territorial border as well as a coastline. India
has a total coastline of 7516.6 km length, out of which the mainland
coastline consists of 6100 km and islands’ coastline consists of 1197 km.
Among the nine maritime states of India (Maharashtra, Goa, Gujarat,
Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West
Bengal), Gujarat being situated on the western coast of India has the
longest coastline of 1,663 km which is one-third of the entire coastline of
2Charu Gupta and Mukul Sharma, "Blurred borders: Coastal Conflicts between India and
Pakistan," Economic and Political Weekly 39, no. 27 (2004): 3005 3 Gupta and Sharma, "Blurred borders," 3005
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the country. The coastline of Pakistan extends to 1,050 km out of which
250 km falls in the Sind province and 800 km in Balochistan. A part of the
Sindh coastline is adjacent to that of the Indian state of Gujarat. There’s no
border between Gujrat and Pakistan’s Sindh provinces except marshland
acting as a mock border.4So far there have been no efforts to sign bilateral
pacts that can define the sea boundaries between both the counties. The
disputed Sir Creek is a real bone of contention between India and Pakistan
that has existed for decades and can be solved easily through
negotiations.5 The question is if it is so simple then why India and
Pakistan have not been able to resolve this boundary issue yet?
Sir Creek is a 96 km long estuary in the marshes of the Rann of
Kutch which lies on the border between India’s Gujrat and Pakistan’s
Sindh province. Basically it is a fluctuating tidal channel, not truly a
flowing creek, along which the boundary between India and Pakistan has
not been demarcated. Pakistan claims rights, in accordance with the
Bombay Government Resolution of 1914, on the entire waters surrounding
and fed by the creek. India, for its part, insists that it owns half of the area
on the basis of the Thalweg Doctrine pertaining to international law.6This
issue could have been easily resolved decades ago in 1965 when the Rann
4 "Away from the LoC, How BSF Has Secured the Natural Border between Gujarat and
Pakistan," The Economic Times, last modified July 13, 2018, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/away-from-the-loc-how-bsf-has-
secured-the-natural-border-between-gujarat-and-pakistan/articleshow/55390784.cms. 5 "Sir Creek Dispute," Dawn, last modified May 22, 2011,
https://www.dawn.com/news/630814. 6 From the Newspaper, "Sir Creek Dispute."
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of Kutch tribunal demarcated the boundary between Gujarat State and
Sindh.7
The Sir Creek dispute is mainly because of the fishing resources it
offers as it is considered to be one of the largest fishing grounds in Asia.
Moreover, it is rich in hydrocarbons and shale gas. This dispute is no
longer a land dispute, it is now a sea boundary dispute between India and
Pakistan. In early 1970s, there were negotiations regarding the law of the
Sea which resulted in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the
Sea (UNCLOS) in 1982. The UNCLOS defines laws and policies in order
to regulate all oceans, seas and uses of marine resources by establishing a
basic governing mechanism. It gives certain rights to coastal states:
1. Coastal states have the sovereign right over their territorial sea on
which they can establish a breadth but not more than that of 12
nautical miles;
2. Coastal States can exercise their right to build Exclusive Economic
Zone (EEZ) involving marine resources, economic functioning,
environmental protection and marine sciences research;
3. Coastal States have sovereign rights over the continental shelf (the
national area of the seabed) for exploring and exploiting it, up to
350 Nautical Miles.
7 A.Z. Hilali, "Confidence and Security Building Measures for Pakistan," Sage
Publications, Vol. 30, No. 2 (Apr.-June 2005), pp. 191-222 .
https://www.jstor.org/stable/40645155?seq=1.
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Thus, this simple issue has become important after UNCLOS set the
rules. The Law of Sea allows shifting of resources on either side of the
border. In this backdrop, one can understand the approach of both the
neighboring states for arresting each other’s fishermen. By arresting each
other’s fishermen, they exercise their state sovereignty and claim that area.
The arrest of fishermen is basically an assertion of better title that both
states wish to claim rather than a show of enmity against fishermen.
There were various attempts made to resolve this dispute in the past
but unfortunately all went in vain. The failure of both the states to agree
upon a mutual understanding has dented the interests of both parties on
two levels: economic and humanitarian. The need for a definite sea border
between the two countries, which is essential to optimize the benefits of
marine resources, has been hampered from materializing under the UN
Convention of the Law of the Sea.8Thus, the prevalent standoff is
inflicting suffering on the daily life and economic activities of the people
in the sub-continent region who have their livelihood attached with
fishing. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan, fisheries
contribute a considerable amount to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Last year, total 130,380 metric tons of fish and fishery products were
exported from Pakistan to the world including Europe. The total earning of
these exports valued at US$ 293.887 million.9 On the other hand, India’s
8Hilali, "Confidence and Security." 9 "Pakistan Economic Survey 2018-2019," Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan,
accessed December 26, 2019,
http://finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_19/Economic_Survey_2018_19.pdf.
MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1
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total export of frozen fisheries items was worth US$ 5.78 billion in the
year 2016-17.10
Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) can be a perfect medium to
achieve a breakthrough in the Sir Creek issue ─ less contentious issue than
Kashmir. CBM is an umbrella term that loosely defines all measures taken
to highlight, prevent and find solution to existing uncertainties among
countries. These are specifically customized to halt unwanted or wanted
conflicts, hostilities and escalation among states and help them build
mutual trust. CBMs can take up any shape or form ranging from formal to
informal, political, military, state to state, non-governmental. They can
involve one or more states ranging from unilateral to bilateral and
multilateral. CMBs hold great importance in putting the ages old political
stalemates onto the agenda setting and moving the national and
international machinery towards resolving those stalemates.11In the
interim, however, CBMs involving Sir Creek could improve relations and
overall management of the area. The UNCLOS has a provision for
creation of the Maritime Sensitive Zones under mutual agreement.
Primarily this is a legal issue not a political issue because it relates to
the application of various legal provisions and international conventions.
10 "Frozen Fish Export from India Continue to See Astounding Growth," Home - Trade
Promotion Council of India, last modified October 9, 2018,
https://www.tpci.in/blogs/frozen-fish-export-from-india-continue-to-see-astounding-growth/. 11 "Confidence-Building Measures, Center for Strategic and International Studies,"
Center for Strategic and International Studies, accessed December 26, 2019,
https://www.csis.org/programs/international-security-program/isp-archives/asia-
division/cross-strait-security-initiativ-1.
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But to resolve this legal issue, political will is required which both the
states lack.
UNCLOS Violations by India and Pakistan
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), 1982
states: “Arrested vessels and their crews shall be promptly released upon
the posting of reasonable bond or other security. And, Coastal State
penalties for violations of fisheries laws and regulations in the exclusive
economic zone may not include imprisonment, in absence of agreements
to the contrary by the States concerned, or any other form of corporal
punishment.”
However, if the person caught is not found guilty cannot be held
for more than six months.12 Both the states have signed the UNCLOS but
openly disregard all the laws in this Convention. India captures most of
fishermen under its local Maritime Zones India (MZ) Act 1981 which
states that “where such contraventions take place in any area within the
territorial water of India, (they shall) be punishable with imprisonment.”
Whereas Pakistan arrests Indian fishermen under the Maritime Zone of
Pakistan Act.
The agencies handling the capture and captivity of fishermen on
both sides of the sea border are the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) and the
12 "Overview - Convention & Related Agreements," Welcome to the United Nations,
accessed December 26, 2019,
https://www.un.org/Depts/los/convention_agreements/convention_overview_convention.
htm.
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Pakistan Maritime Security Agency (PMSA) respectively. These bodies
conduct operation in the sea waters and arrest persons who violate the
EEZ or maritime borders. After the capture, these bodies hand over these
people to the local police. They are sent to jail where they are left upon the
mercy of the sluggish justice systems and legal practices in the country
which has originally captured them. From that moment on, their plight
begins. Sometimes, they spend a lifetime in jails and often come home in
coffins. The reason is the due process not being followed by either of the
state.
Legal Procedures and Hurdles
Justice system and legal departments are almost the same in both these
countries when it comes dealing with the foreign prisoners; and the
situation further aggravates if a prisoner is from an enemy state. For the
imprisoned fishermen, the legal procedure is extremely complex and
sluggish that they must spend years in jails even before any charges are
proved on them. Furthermore, fishermen coming from poor class are
unable to prepare any defense against these cases as they are not provided
with counsels.
Several cases have come into light where innocent fishermen have
died in jails or released after decades of unimaginable torture. Recently a
Pakistani fisherman Noor-ul-Amin died in the Indian jail. The reason for
his death was succumbing to the injuries sustained during torture by the
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jail staff. He was captured in 2017 by the Indian Coast Guard (ICG).13 The
most despicable thing during the whole episode was the fact that the
Indian staff did not even know his father’s name and the Fishermen
Cooperative Society in Pakistan had to search a few houses to approach
his family. It is evident that in such cases not only there is a lack of due
procedure, but also the already existing procedure is not even followed.
Had there been an FIR against the said fisherman and a proper charge
sheet, the Indian authorities would have known the exact father’s name.
Another sad case came into light recently when another fisherman named
Sohail Rasheed died in captivity in India. He was captured in 2016 by the
Indian Coast Guard (ICG).14 Same is the case with Indian fishermen held
in Pakistani jails.
In 2019, India gave a list of 347 Pakistani prisoners trapped in
Indian jails to the Pakistan High Commission, as a reciprocal gesture to
Pakistan handing over a list of 483 Indian fishermen to the Indian High
Commission. The lists included minors as well.15According to South
Asians for Human Rights (SAHR), “In Pakistan and India, there are long
bureaucratic delays during detention and some fishermen are not released
even after the prison sentence is complete due to delays in the
identification process of the relevant High Commission. In cases of death,
13 The Newspaper's Staff Reporter, "Pakistani Fisherman Beaten to Death in Indian Jail," Dawn.com, last modified March 27, 2019, https://www.dawn.com/news/1472049. 14 The Newspaper's Staff Reporter, "Pakistani Fisherman Dies in Indian Jail," Dawn.com,
last modified April 26, 2019, https://www.dawn.com/news/1478430. 15 Editorial, "Fishermen Released," Dawn.com, last modified April 9, 2019,
https://www.dawn.com/news/1474879.
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the governments delay handing over the mortal remains to the country of
his origin.”16
Secondly, according to some academics, states do not own these
citizens. Fishermen communities are in general considered deviant and not
included in the society as other communities are. The state that imprisons
fishermen considers them poor and illiterate who would be involved in
espionage for their country in exchange for money. This is another reason
that fishermen are subjected to severe torture, violence and inhuman
behavior in both countries and India and Pakistan both seem reluctant to
fight their case and oblivious to their painful condition.
Recommendations
1. Fishermen got apprehended because they do not have proper
navigation tools that could guide them about sea borders. They
wander in the sea in search of superior quality and larger quantity
of fish. Both countries need to put special effort to increase the
literacy rate and expose fisher folk to new technologies that will
help them in navigation and put an end to their misery and
exploitation. This will bring peace, stability and better living
conditions in coastal areas of the region.
16 "SAHR Expresses Deep Concern of the Plight of Arrested Indian and Pakistani
Fishermen," South Asians for Human Rights, accessed December 26, 2019,
https://www.southasianrights.org/?p=12187.
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2. A demarcated maritime boundary will make enforcing laws easier
for both states. This will end the plight of fishermen.
3. The police which charges the case and present the fishermen to the
court for further legal action is often corrupt and incompetent in
such incidents. It is unfortunate that the excruciatingly sluggish
legal process, both in India and Pakistan is causing pain to these
fishermen which needs to be improved.
4. It is a grave but undeniable fact that fishermen are used as pawns
to garner political gains and not treated as human beings. Not a
single imprisoned fisherman has been able to get a release through
justice system or legal process in the history of Pakistan and India
till to date. President or the Prime Minster of either country
announces the release of fishermen as a goodwill gesture
occasionally. This practice must end and fishermen must be
released through the legal process.
5. It would be a good practice for the states to issue orders not to
arrest fishermen unless they are proven to be involved in illegal
activities like narcotics trafficking, smuggling, etc. It happened in
1990s when the Prime ministers of both the countries were about
to reach an understanding however, the political environment was
not conducive, and the plan could never materialize. It may be an
ideal solution which would require extensive homework, but it has
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the greatest chance of ending the plight of fishermen on both sides
of the border.
6. Fishermen found in other country’s territorial waters be warned
and turned back to their respective country. This would require
rigorous patrolling.
Conclusion
Coastal communities in the third world countries cannot possibly survive
without fish resources. In case of Pakistan and India, poor fishermen have
inexorably been drawn in the sphere of enmity and bitterness, and are
repeatedly paying a heavy price of it. Although there has been much
politicization of the issue for political gains, there is a serious lack of
effort into resolving the issue in the long term. There are many loopholes
in laws and policies regarding this matter which allow the continuous
exploitation of fishermen. A few steps can be taken in order to resolve the
issue. An ideal situation would be minimum hostility between the two
countries, development of mutual trust through CBMs and resolving the
bilateral issues in general and the Sir Creek issue in particular. However, a
humanitarian issue like that cannot wait this far and some immediate
action should be taken. It would benefit both countries if there was a clear
demarcation of the sea border to avoid further human rights violations and
future conflict as well. It is important that the foreign offices of both
countries should facilitate the dialogue process.
72
The Economics of Fisheries
Muhammad Saad*
Abstract
Today, fishing has been largely commercialized and considered a major
source of revenue generation. There are many studies that put light on the
size, policies, methods, etc. with regard to fishing. This paper, however,
will digress from such discussions on fisheries and attempt to focus on its
economic aspect because fish is a ‘common resource’ after all, and the
overexploitation of this resource can lead to devastating consequences for
the marine habitat. In this vein, this study will also take into consideration
the economic concept of the ‘tragedy of the commons’ and how it can help
us determine the economically viable and sustainable harvest levels of fish
for a given fishery resource. Lastly, this discourse will also bring forward
some viable policies that can be taken into consideration while harvesting
fish from a given resource.
Introduction
Fish can be considered an environmental good as fish are part of the
marine habitat and live on reefs as coral reefs are home to millions of
* Muhammad Saad is a graduate of Quaid-e-Azam University’s School of Economics.
His fields of expertise include Political Economy and International Relations.
73
species and contribute to biodiversity. In addition, fish are a valuable
consumer product as well as they contribute to the economic activities
carried out along coastlines around the globe. However, when fish is
consumed on an unsustainable level, it leads to depletion of this
environmental good and consequently collapsing the economic activities
associated with fisheries. Such a collapse is known as the ‘Tragedy of the
Commons.’
The original idea of the tragedy of the commons was presented in
his paper by Hardin in 1968.1 The word ‘commons’ used repetitively in
his paper is a reference to the resources in an area where everybody has
access to them. In economics, a commons is a non-excludable but a rival
good. Private property like a laptop is a personal thing: it is rival in a sense
that an individual can own it but others cannot, and it is ‘excludable’ when
that individual holds it in his bag and only he can have it and call it his
own. Unlike a personal thing, a commons is non-excludable. For instance,
there is a village in which people bring their sheep to graze on the pasture
(commons) as it is not a private property and is owned collectively by
everybody. If excessive sheep show up on the field and end up eating all
the grass, the tragedy of the commons would occur, and the tragedy
would, after a while, result in a situation where no grass would be left for
the sheep.
1 Garrett Hardin, "The Tragedy of the Commons," Science, last modified December 13,
1968, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/162/3859/1243.
74
Literature Review
The concept of the tragedy of commons was first discussed by H. Scott
Gordon in his paper written in 1954 and titled “The Economic Theory of a
Common-Property Resource: The Fishery”.2 In this paper, Gordon talked
about the tragedy of the Commons as far as fisheries are concerned,
almost a dozen years before Hardin did, and it is one of the earliest papers
on the commons. He talked about methods to prevent the occurring of the
tragedy of the commons.
The proposition of the tragedy of the commons expounded by
Hardin in 1968 was confronted by Elinor Ostrom a few years later.3
Ostrom, a political scientist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics,
wondered what might happen in a real time situation when you get a
Commons and people have sheep. And to witness it in person, she went to
a place where people had Commons and sheep. She questioned them
regarding the management to sustain the commons, and they told her that
they had devised a way in which they managed to sustain their Commons
and keep the area within its carrying capacity.4 Later, she presented her
anti-thesis of the tragedy of the commons.
2 H. Scott Gordon, "The Economic Theory of a Common-Property Resource: The
Fishery," The Journal of Political Economy 62, no. 2 (1954): 124-142. 3 Juan Camilo Cardenas & Rajiv Sethi, "Elinor Ostrom: Fighting the Tragedy of the Commons," Books & Ideas, last modified 12, https://booksandideas.net/Elinor-Ostrom-
Fighting-the-Tragedy-of-the-Commons.html. 4 David Sloan Wilson, "The Tragedy of the Commons: How Elinor Ostrom Solved One
of Life's Greatest Dilemmas," Evonomics, last modified December 4, 2019,
https://evonomics.com/tragedy-of-the-commons-elinor-ostrom/.
75
Ostrom’s solution is based on an institutional or collective
community solution and involves converting the non-excludable, rival
good into a non-rival and excludable good by making it a “club good”. It
means that to use a particular good, one must be a member of the club. So,
it is possible to turn a fishery or a landscape excludable and non-rival by
restricting the entry of non-locals and not letting too many sheep on the
commons. Alternatively, such common pool can also be transformed into
a “private good” which is going to be excludable and rival. The private
good solution can be achieved by sectioning off the commons into a
private property. This can be done by dividing a pasture into individual
sections so that the consequences of overutilization will not be suffered by
all persons using the pasture. So, privatization is what Ostrom mainly
discussed in her paper and this is how a lot of fisheries management
solutions developed.
There are three stages of fisheries. First, let us assume there is a
specific amount of biomass given to several fishermen in such a way that
the amount of biomass is greater than the number of fishermen as shown
in the arbitrary figure below.
Biomass Fishermen
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From an economic perspective, it is a non-excludable and a non-rival good
which is a public good. Anybody can go in to take the fish, and in the case
of fisheries, there are excessive fish in the biomass. So, as the first
fisherman shows up, he has a big catch and as more people show up, it
goes from being a non-excludable, non-rival good to being a non-
excludable and rival one; essentially a common pool good. The problem of
consumption would arise as the number of fishermen would increase while
the size of the biomass has remained the same. Hence, the fishery would
collapse because it was over-fished. Such was the case with the cod
fishery off the coast Canada.5 Furthermore, the fishery can be privatized
which is what has been done in various countries such as Iceland,
Australia, New Zealand and the US. Such privatization is usually known
as “individually transferable quotas (ITQs)”.6
An ITQ is basically the same idea as sectioning off that property or
land, except that rather than apportioning the land, the school of fish is
divided among all fishermen. Under the ITQ, individuals will get a limited
quota based on a regulation. For example, person A has done a certain
amount of fishing in the past. He will be given a quota that represents that
person’s past fish catch based on time period or weight. The allocation of
quota is necessary to maintain the sustainability of resources and avoid
agitation among the fishermen. Quota is based on past consumption /
production and the authority which issues the quota usually reduces the
5 Lawrence C. Hamilton and Melissa J. Butler, "Out port Adaptations: Social Indicators
through Newfoundland’s Cod Crisis," Human Ecology Review 8, no. 2 (2001). 6 "Shortcoming of ITQ Systems for Fisheries," Science Daily, last modified January 9,
2020, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180822150820.htm.
77
quota to keep it at a sustainable level. Sustaining the fishery at a maximum
sustainable yield is usually the idea but getting that right is difficult
because the biologists and the politicians rarely agree on the estimate
figure of this maximum sustainable yield. Consider the case of the
International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tuna (ICCAT)
which is responsible for managing the catches of Bluefin Tuna in the
Atlantic. In 2008, ICCAT scientists came up with a sustainable quota for
Bluefin tuna catch stating that it should be set between 8500 to 15000
tons. Instead, the commission adopted a quota of 20,000 tons which
destroyed the Bluefin tuna stock in the Atlantic. Henceforth, Carl Safina,
an eminent marine conservationist, labelled it as a disgrace and nicknamed
ICCAT as the International Conspiracy to Catch All the Tunas.7
The Abalone fishery in Australia issued quota permits which were
transferable and allowed individuals to buy and sell those quota permits
among each other.8 However, the regulatory authorities would reduce the
quota gradually to protect the commons. This increases the productivity of
the fishery when the quota reduces to a sustainable level. It is also a fact
that fisheries are also susceptible to physical shocks from time to time
which may require lowering the amount of fishing in the resource.
Nonetheless, quotas are expensive and new fishermen usually
complain that it is not fair for those who are new to the profession and
7Halaman. “The Collapse of the Canadian Newfoundland Cod Fishery.” Greenpeace,
May 8, 2009, https://www.greenpeace.org/archive-
indonesia/campaigns/Laut/seafood/understanding-the-problem/overfishing-history/cod-
fishery-canadian/ 8Halaman, “The Collapse of the Canadian Newfoundland Cod Fishery.”
78
have limited resources. Unfortunately, a quota is not set to help young
fishermen enter the business, but to maintain a fishery so that people can
keep consuming fish. In addition to this, quotas are expensive because
fishing is a very capital-intensive business and people who invest in it
expect some handsome returns.
Biological Aspects of Fish Stock
The economics of fisheries is multi-dimensional. It includes a direct
relationship between the growth of a fish stock and the maximum
sustainable harvest level. This is an economic aspect of fisheries which
includes total revenue, total costs, profit and policies to manage fisheries
sustainably.
The relationship between fish population and the growth rate at
different stages can be explained through visual representations as below.
When the fish stock is completely at its maximum carrying capacity, for
every new fish that is born in the population a fish dies to create a space.
At this stage, the biomass at point k of the carrying capacity has zero
79
growth of the fish stock. It suggests that the growth of the overall fish
stock is zero so much so that for every fish that is born, another one dies.
On the right of the b max point, as it approaches the carrying capacity,
there is not enough food and habitat for the population to grow anymore.
Meanwhile, to the left of the point b max, there is not enough fish stock to
multiply rapidly. Hence, b max is the maximum growth rate spot.
In the above diagram h max represents the harvest level which has a
corresponding growth rate of the fish stock associated with it i.e. the point
at which the dotted line meets the inverted-U fish growth rate curve. At
this point, fish would be replenished by the amount of the growth rate,
which is equal to the harvest level h-max.
80
Point hs is the harvest level. Two biomass points, b low and b high, can
sustain it. hs intersects with b high at point A. It represents that hs amount
of fish can be harvested sustainably for an indefinite amount of time from
a biomass level of b high if the growth rate of the fish is A.
hs intersects with b low at point B. It indicates that hs amount of
fish can be harvested sustainably for an indefinite amount of time from a
biomass level of b low if the growth rate is B. If more fish is harvested
than the growth rate of biomass level at any given time, it would naturally
knock the overall biomass down because of lower restoration of fish stock.
In real time, the real size of the biomass is unknown and only an
estimation is made. For research purpose, it is considered that hs amount
of fish is being harvested every period.
81
The above diagram represents that the harvest level is higher than the
growth rate.
This figure underscores that harvesting more fish than the amount of
replenished fish at the same period will decrease the biomass. As a result,
the biomass shrinks.
82
It is also important to note that when harvesting surpasses the
growth of fish, the growth rate of the fish stock increases. This happens
because of less competition as the biomass carries far less fish than its
maximum capacity. The fish that are left have more food and more habitat
and therefore, the overall size of the fish stock increases rapidly.
If harvest level remains at hs while the biomass level is somewhere
between b-low and b-high, the growth rate of the biomass is above the
harvest level. It specifies that during this period more fish are being added
to the biomass than those being harvested. Therefore, leftover fish will be
added to the biomass and the overall biomass will grow and will move
towards the right side. In the second period afterwards, the harvest level
will again be less than the biomass growth rate.
83
If the biomass is anywhere between the range b-low and h-high where the
harvest level is less than the instantaneous growth rate of the fish stock
then the biomass will keep growing until reaches at the level h-high of the
biomass where the growth rate is equal to the harvest level in a stable
condition.
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In the previous diagram, the harvesting is at the level hs, but the growth
rate of the fish stock is lower. This means more fish are being taken out of
the biomass than being reintroduced, so the biomass is going to shrink.
If harvesting more fish than the fish being reproduced in the biomass
continues in the same manner, it will further shrink the biomass and b high
will move towards b low until it reaches zero. That will essentially
decimate the fish stock and drive it to extinction (Figure 9).
85
It is also important to note that at all points on the growth rate curve, more
fish are being harvested than what can possibly be reintroduced back into
the biomass. Therefore, it will shrink all the way down to extinction.
If the harvesting is inside the danger zone h1, the biomass happens to be
low already. It just cannot sustain a harvest level that is greater than its
own growth and will decimate it down to nothing. Hence, the higher the
harvest level the greater the danger of biomass getting extinct.
Economic Aspect of Fish Stock
The economic aspect of fisheries can also be explained through this visual
representation:
86
At the point of origin, there is zero cost and zero effort. This means that
there are no boats and nobody is going to the water; therefore, there is no
revenue. But as the level of fishing effort increases, there will be more
boats and more people who will spend more time in the water.
The total revenue curve seems quite different from the traditional
economic total revenue curves and it is noteworthy that it has the same
shape as the overall growth rate curve of a fish stock. This is because at
any level of biomass where the harvest level is sustainable, a certain
amount of fish that is caught will be brought back and sold, and this
process will continue. So, at the start of this process, we would be
chipping some of this stock and getting some revenue from selling those
fish. Increasing the fishing effort would drive that stock down into smaller
size. Even though the sustainable harvests can continue, but the fish stock
there has gone down to very few numbers. Therefore, if sustainable
87
harvesting continues, the total revenue is lower as one moves along the
total revenue curve.
Total cost (TC), which is a straight line from the origin that
intersects the total revenue curve at some point. Every time people go out
fishing, there are associated costs incurred while purchasing nets, fuel,
time and labor, etc. If each unit of fishing effort has a cost associated with
it, then more the fishing effort the higher will be the total cost.
E-max is associated with the maximum harvest and is the level of
fishing effort associated with the maximum harvest. So as per that
diagram, harvesting at “h-max” from the “biomass-max” level of fish
stock is associated with the “E-max” level of fishing effort with associated
costs and revenue. As profit is total revenue minus total costs, so the profit
here is the difference between the TC and TR curves, i.e. the line between
points A and B.
In terms of profit maximization, if there are fewer fishing efforts,
consequently, there are lesser associated costs and the difference between
the total revenue and the total cost is the greatest; hence, the profit too. It
can be concluded that cutting down a little bit of harvesting at the
maximum sustainable would give out more fish and more revenue with
less effort and greater sustainability of the fish stock.
If the cost curve moves up, the greatest distance between the TR
and the TC curve is observed and the point of profit maximization also
shifts. It can be concluded here that anything that raises the total cost of
88
fishing effort, reduces the economically efficient level of fishing effort or
the profit maximizing level of fishing effort. If the cost goes down, the
shift in fishing efforts will also be observed.
Findings
Fisheries are a common resource that need to be dealt with appropriately
in order to avoid the tragedy of the commons. There are different points at
which fisheries can be harvested sustainably. As it was deduced from the
Total Revenue and the Total Cost curves that anything that raises the total
cost of the fishing effort also reduces the economically efficient level of
the fishing effort or the profit maximizing level of the fishing effort.
Moreover, anything that lowers the total cost of the fishing effort increases
the economically efficient level of the fishing effort or the profit
maximizing level of fishing effort. Harvesting a little less than the
maximum point ensures sustainability of the biomass, prevents its
decimation and maximizes profits.
Policy Recommendations
A quota may be introduced on the total amount of allowable catch
or the total authorized catch. Scientists would typically try to
estimate the overall biomass and determine what the maximum
sustainable yield would be and then the regulator would make sure
that the fishermen who are involved in that industry do not catch
any more than the overall authorized catch. This can either be done
through license purchasing or purchasing some other type of total
89
volume. These licenses can also be associated with a certain
overall amount of catch and once that license limit is reached,
further purchase can be managed accordingly.
A regulatory report may be maintained about what species were
caught; where they were caught and at what time of the year they
were caught and so on. This helps a regulator to understand how
many fish there are and how much effort is being made to catch
them and what the overall total harvest level was. They can then
compare these figures to the previously determined total allowable
catch and as it approaches a total allowable catch, they can take a
number of steps such as stopping people from fishing if it happens
regularly year after year. The regulators can then analyze whether
there are too many boats for the total allowable catch or too many
licenses and the regulator could then go in and try to purchase back
some of those boats or licenses.
A different way to manage these fisheries is by having seasonal
closures. Typically, fish have a breeding season and it is therefore
advisable to not harvest them during that particular season.9 Hence,
seasonal closures are also very common and it just means that for a
particular time of year, no fishing is allowed in certain areas.
Another approach would be geographic closures which are
associated again with the breeding areas for fish. These closures
9 Michael E. Soule, "Place-Based Ecosystem Management in the Open Ocean," in Marine
Conservation Biology: The Science of Maintaining the Sea's Biodiversity (Washington
D.C: Island Press, 2005), 302-325.
90
would be something like closing down particular locations in the
ocean for fishermen so that fish are just protected in that location
and once they increase in size, then they are spread in the ocean
and that is where people are allowed to catch them.
In addition, another approach would be to have conservation areas.
Conservation areas are more permanent locations that are close to
fishing, and once again they tend to be associated with breeding
areas of fish and other crucial habitat areas. By protecting those, it
can be ensured that the overall fish stock has a greater chance of
not being overfished.
Moreover, another strategy that can be used is the employment of
technology rules and this can include both positive and negative
lists. For example, the fishermen might be allowed to use a gill net
with a 10 centimeter square net opening or they might be allowed
to use certain long liners with hooks. So, a positive list means that
fishermen can use anything on the list. Meanwhile, a negative list
refers to those things that the fishermen cannot use. For example, a
negative list might mean that fishermen cannot use a barb on the
hook, or they might not be able to use a Seine or that they can only
use a drift net or that trawling is not allowed in the marine
fisheries.
Educating the consumers and people involved in this industry is
very important. For example, telling consumers about the level of
91
fish stocks and their health and encourage or discourage them from
consuming certain fish. Advocacy groups, as in the United States,
which give out a little card telling consumers not to eat certain fish
can be quoted here as an example. Hence, it is a way of telling
consumers who are not familiar with the state of different fish
stocks; which fish stocks are healthy and which ones are to be
avoided. Part of that process could even include certification
labeling. This certification would be an independent organization
looking after a particular fishery and determining whether or not
that fishery is fished sustainably. And if it is being fished
sustainably, then that independent organization will give its
authorization to use its label and certification. This is what
organizations like Marine Stewardship Council does. It certifies
seafood and indicates that seafood is going through a process of
auditing and verification; and this certification is going to make
sure that these food resources are properly managed.10
A rather unconventional strategy that can be adopted is a limit on
the total amount of horsepower on the boat. Capping the
horsepower will make sure a boat goes out more slowly and it
cannot go far away. Thus, it increases the overall cost of going out.
In the future and long term, taxes would be another way of
managing fisheries. However, a tax would increase the total cost
10 Beth Fulton and Tony Smith, "Ecosim Case Study: Port Philip Bay, Australia," The
Use of Ecosystem Models to Investigate Multispecies Management Strategies for Capture
Fisheries 10, no. 2 (2002): 83
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and the curve up will shift upwards to the left. By doing that, as
seen in the previous examples, the total cost would go up and the
economically efficient level of fishing effort would go down.
Examples of this might be a fuel tax which will make the cost go
up and the level of fishing effort to go down.
In practice, what happens is that the policies to manage fisheries are sort
of coming under pressure from different sides i.e. pressure toward
sustainability and pressure towards over exploitation. So in terms of
sustainability, the paper has carefully managed or scientifically researched
total allowable catches. Sustainable approaches might include licensing,
limits on the number of boats, seasonal and geographical closures,
technology rules, and conservation areas. These strategies can be utilized
when the fishery is within the territorial waters of a country. Hence, within
the ocean area around Australia, for example, Australian regulators can
actually go and regulate their fisheries.11 In other situations where there
are open ocean fisheries, it can be more difficult because no country can
actually manage and regulate it effectively. So in international waters, as
is commonly the case in the North Atlantic and even off the coast of
Australia, there is often a lot more pressure on fish stocks because
countries have a hard time agreeing to the distribution of allowable catch
11 Wilson, Douglas Clyde, Jesper Raakjaer Nielsen, and Poul Degnbol, “The fisheries co-
management experience: accomplishments, challenges and prospects,” Science &
Business Media, Vol. 26,(2003)
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even if the cumulative total of all of their individual catches exceeds the
maximum sustainable catch.12
It happens that many times governments and politicians are
interested in helping out their particular constituency near the fishery,
especially if they are areas with high unemployment rate or they are
remote rural areas. So, often there are development projects and other
policies put in place to try to help out those folks with their livelihoods.
These measures could be like fuel subsidies and if we decrease the cost of
fuel, the economically efficient level of fishing effort will increase. Hence,
lower the costs harder the people will fish and for longer periods too.
Lastly, there are different sets of policies and practices that
authorities may adopt for sustainability. On the one hand, there are the
closures and the technological limits but at the same time other economic
subsidies and low-interest loans and other incentives increase the level of
fishing effort which create quite a complex situation. The key is to find a
balance in between all the possible options so that not only the fisheries
remain sustainable for longer periods, but they also remain economically
attractive for the fishermen.
Conclusion
It has been established that fisheries are a common resource that need to
be dealt with appropriately in order to avoid the tragedy of the commons.
12 Lars H. Gulbrandsen, "The Emergence and Effectiveness of the Marine Stewardship
Council," Marine Policy 33, no. 4 (July 2009): 654-660.
94
Moreover, there are different points at which fisheries can be harvested
sustainably. In addition, it was also deducted from the Total Revenue and
the Total Cost curves that anything that raises the total cost of the fishing
effort, reduces the economically efficient level of the fishing effort or the
profit maximizing level of the fishing effort. Similarly, anything that
lowers the total cost of the fishing effort increases the economically
efficient level of the fishing effort or the profit maximizing level of fishing
effort. Lastly, there are different sets of policies and practices that fisheries
may adopt for sustainability. On the one hand, there are closures and
technological limits that can be put into effect, while on the other hand,
economic subsidies and low-interest loans and other incentives increase
the level of fishing effort which create quite a difficult situation. The key
is to find a balance in between all the possible options so that not only the
fisheries remain sustainable for longer periods, but they also remain
economically attractive for the fishermen.
95
Coastal Tourism and the Threat of Climate
Change
Muhammad Ammar Alam*
Abstract
With the growing dependence of coastal countries on their tourist facilities
for higher economic dividends, there is a general rise in the need to know
about the changing climate and its effects on coastal environments. The
scope of this paper is to emphasize the relationship between coastal
tourism and climate change, devastating effects that the climate change
can have on coastal areas in light of various case studies, and economic
costs incurred by coastal countries while facing climate change. The
paper will conclusively try to answer whether coastal tourism can sustain
climate changes in the coming decades.
Introduction
Coastal and marine tourism is a fast growing sector which involves heavy
investments while offering high economic benefits. For it to sustain,
coastal and marine environments require specific weather conditions and
complimenting infrastructure. Unfortunately, climate change is taking its
toll on both. Up till now, major studies on climate change and tourism
* The writer, Research Associate at Maritime Study Forum, is a graduate of Quaid-e-
Azam University Islamabad’s School of Economics department.
96
have taken into consideration rather one aspect of the link between climate
change and tourism and ignored the diversity and specific weather
requirements needed to boost tourism.
Tourism is one of the major economic sectors in the world. Coastal
countries gifted with beautiful beaches and tourist spots make huge money
by utilizing their natural marine resources.1 To meet the growing demand
in this sector, these countries are now paying more attention towards
maintaining and improving facilities provided to tourists at beaches and
coasts. For example, Denmark’s national tourism policy (2006-2009)
identified coastal tourism as one of the three main strategic areas for future
investments and Mexico’s Ministry of Tourism was applying fast track
mechanisms to approve licenses for foreign investments in coastal zones a
decade ago.2
Researchers in the 1950s started taking interest in deciphering the
relationship between climate and tourism.3 Over the past years in the wake
of climate vulnerabilities, researchers have put efforts in comprehending
the impact climate change is having on the scale of tourism activities.4
1C. Michael Hall "Trends in Ocean and Coastal Tourism: the End of the Last Frontier?"
Science Direct, No:44, Issues 9–10(2001): 601-618,
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0964569101000710. 2 "Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges,” Western Norway
Research Institute, accessed January 7, 2020,
https://www.vestforsk.no/en/publication/climate-change-and-tourism-responding-global-
challenges. 3Bernstein L, Bosch P, Canziani O, Chen Z, Christ R, & Riahi K, "IPCC, 2007: Climate
Change 2007: Synthesis Report," International Institute for Applied System Analysis,
accessed January 7, 2020, http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8667/. 4 IPCC — Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, accessed January 7, 2020,
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ar4_wg2_full_report.pdf.
97
Mirroring this growing interest, the United Nations World Tourism
Organization together with the United Nations Environment Programme
and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 2007 summoned
the Second International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism in
Switzerland in which approximately 500 participants from 80 countries
participated. Delegations at the conference were of the view that the
tourism sector is highly sensitive to the impacts of climate change and
global warming, which is already inflicting damage to the industry. The
declaration of the conference states: “the tourism sector must rapidly
respond to climate change, within the evolving UN framework, if it is to
grow in a sustainable manner.”5
The marine environment and coastal communities with special
reference to tourism are seriously being threatened by unprecedented
levels of climate change throughout the world.6 Despite this, researchers
that have traditionally studied the issues of coastal tourism have frequently
disregarded the problem of climate change. On the contrary, scholars
exploring problems of climate change and its impacts on tourism have
zeroed in on activities mainly related to sun & beach tourism because
understanding spatial behavior of visitors is pivotal for tourism planning
and management. However, other activities along coastal zones such as
sailing or marine wildlife sightseeing have received little attention.
5 PMB Group, "Report of the First Session of the WMO/UNEP Interg," Homepage E-Library, accessed January 9, 2020,
https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=20593. 6 "Developments in Tourism Climatology," Research Gate, last modified January 1, 2007,
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233758650_Developments_in_Tourism_Climat
ology.
98
In the past ten years, the earth has changed more than it had in the past
millennia. According to the statistics mentioned in a piece carried by The
Guardian, the current global warming rates are of significance because
many of these (more than 95%) are most probably the result of human
activities responsible for polluting the atmosphere since the mid-
20th century, and these changes are taking place at a shocking rate.7
This graph shows that for millennia, atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide had never been above the 300ppm line while today it stands at
400ppm line and is exacerbating every year. This level of increase in CO2
is causing the earth to warm up faster than it did in the years before.
This shows that the earth’s climate is changing in an
unprecedented manner and hence its implications cannot be completely
gauged. The global rise in temperature, if not contained between the limits
of 1.5-2 Degree Celsius, will cause the global ice caps to melt, sea levels
to rise, temperature of the earth to be warmer, species living in specific
7 Cath Levett, "The Climate Crisis Explained in 10 Charts," The Guardian, last modified
December 16, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/20/the-climate-
crisis-explained-in-10-charts.
99
environments to move to other regions or become extinct and
unpredictable weather changes and natural disasters will be rampant all
over the world.
Coastal Tourism Activities Neglected by Researchers
Extensive research is missing on coastal and marine tourism activities
such as windsurf, kitesurf, sailing, cruising, etc. This is the reason why the
effects of climate change on these recreational activities are unknown.
However, media outlets reporting climate change incidents and how
devastating such catastrophes have been for human population and other
living creatures, can give a glimpse of the horrifying impacts of climate
variability. For example, the sinking of a tourist cruise ship in the
Antarctica after hitting an iceberg and a glacier burst in the Arctic causing
injuries to tourists, both in 2007, or the recent wild inferno turning bushes
and trees into ashes in Australia are just a few to quote.8
Rise in Sea Levels
The rise in sea levels owing to thermal expansion caused by increase in
temperature of the oceans is very alarming. Scientists believe greenhouse
gases emitted by industries, locomotives, etc. are the prime reason of
oceans getting warmer.
8 "Weather Disasters and Costs," NOAA Office for Coastal Management, last modified
July 10, 2019, https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/weather-disasters.html.
100
The graph above shows the rise in sea levels that has been observed in the
past few years. After 2015, there has been a sharp rise in sea level, as
above as 80 mm while the average change in the last 20 years was 3.3 mm
per year.
Another graph below shows the projected rise in sea level by 2020.
Both these graphs show that due to rapid global warming and climate
change, the sea levels are rising every year faster than they did in the past.
101
Climate Change and Coastal Tourism Industry
Tourism is highly sensitive to changes climate is going through. Climate
has a significant impact on the environmental and social resources of
tourism and the ease and security of visitors. The degree to which the
coastal and marine activities are related to and dependent on weather
conditions and climate changes varies. To some researchers, the
relationship is direct and significant while others believe the relationship is
less obvious. This is why research and development on this segment of the
relationship has not been extensive. Due to this reason, it is hard to gauge
what possible treats, consequences or opportunities there might be for us.
Consequently, the existing research on this issue is unbalanced and lacks
solid foundation. Instead, attention has been more given on activities
where the relationship is fairly obvious.
Impact of Rising Sea Levels on Coastal Tourism
Many places around the globe are already facing the brunt of changing
climate with rising sea levels, increase in the frequency of natural
catastrophes which account for more than 60,000 deaths each year, and
major shifts in weather patterns. For example, let’s look at the impact the
change in climate has on the Caribbean, which is a popular tourist
destination. It has a huge influx of people visiting it every year. Most of
the Caribbean islands have absolutely no other means of generating
revenue except tourism because a good chunk of society is associated with
102
this industry. Hence, any danger to the tourism industry will potentially
rattle these economies to the core.
As shown in the graph, any small coastal state bears the cost of
approximately 0.5 per cent to 2 per cent of its GDP in case of any natural
disaster ranging from heavy rainfall causing rise in sea levels to strong and
violent winds, while the Caribbean bears approximately 1.75 per cent to
2.7 per cent of its GDP. This shows that, like the Caribbean, any
archipelago or island will be at a greater risk of being completely unsafe
for tourist activities in the next ten to twenty years as climate change will
cause major shifts in sea levels and the frequency of natural disasters. The
Mexican Gulf, coastal states of the US, coastal states of the world and all
the islands of the Caribbean are under a huge threat.
103
US Horror Story
In 2018, the USA went through a series of natural disasters triggered by
climate change. There were 2 cyclones (Florence and Michael), one
wildfire, eight connecting storms, one drought and two winter storms that
cumulatively cost the US exchequer $14 billion on account of
rehabilitation cost. In total, these incidents took at least 247 lives and had
losses approximated at $91 billion. Hurricane Michael and Hurricane
Florence, along with western wildfires, caused about $73 billion.9 Most
worryingly, these events took place one after the other. The zones barely
recovered from one hurricane when another hit. These disasters have rung
a bell of concern for the future of coastal and marine environments, in
specific, and for the world in general.
Hurricane Florence10
Location: Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
Date: September 14, 2018
Deaths: 51
9 Doyle Rice, "Monsters Florence and Michael Powered the Deadly, Destructive Atlantic
Hurricane Season That Ends Friday," USA TODAY, last modified November 29, 2018,
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/11/29/hurricane-season-ends-florence-and-michael-left-death-destruction/2148341002/. 10 Umair Irfan, "Hurricane Florence Caused Up to $22 Billion in Damages. Climate
Change Made the Storm Worse," Vox, last modified October 3, 2018,
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/10/3/17925470/hurricane-florence-
2018-devastation-climate-change-flood-sea-level-rise.
104
Hurricane Michael 11
Location: Mexico Beach, Florida
Date: October 10, 2018
Deaths: 45
Western Wildfires12
Date: November 2018
Area Burned: 153,000 acres
Mortalities: 88
Structures wrecked: 18,000
The collective cost of the 16 separate billion-dollar weather events in the
U.S. in 2017 was $306.2 billion, breaking the 214$ billion mark. It is
estimated that Hurricane Harvey had cost $125 billion — second only to
Hurricane Katrina, which had a rough cost of $161 billion.13 The
following is an excerpt from a report published by the NOAA in 2018
regarding the record breaking statistics on the costs of the storms and
hurricanes in 2017.14
11 Richard Luscombe, "'Like an Atomic Bomb': Hurricane Michael Leaves Trail of
Devastation," The Guardian, last modified October 23, 2018,
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/11/hurricane-michael-trail-of-
devastation-florida-georgia. 12 "Wildfire Becomes Deadliest in California History," The New York Times, last
modified October 30, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/us/california-fires-
camp-fire.html. 13 Mindy Weisberger, "Harvey Vs. Katrina: How Do These Monster Storms Compare?"
Livescience, last modified August 29, 2017, https://www.livescience.com/60257-harvey-
vs-katrina-storm-comparison.html. 14 "Tourism," OECD.org - OECD, accessed January 7, 2020,
https://www.oecd.org/cfe/tourism/tourisminoecdcountries2008trendsandpolicies.html.
105
“Hurricane Harvey was a very significant tropical cyclone rainfall
occurrence ever recorded in the U.S. history, both in scope and peak
rainfalls. The highest total rainfall report from Harvey was 60.58 inches.
Prior to Hurricanes Irma and Maria, Harvey became the deadliest U.S.
hurricane in terms of direct deaths since Sandy (2012) and the deadliest
hurricane to hit Texas since 1919. It was the first category 4 hurricane to
make landfall in Texas since 1961, and the first category 4 to make
landfall in the U.S. since 2004. Lasting for 117 hours at a stretch, breaking
the last record for duration of Hurricane Fern in 1971.’’
Hurricane Irma: With maximum winds of 185 miles per hour, Irma
became the strongest storm on record to exist in the Atlantic Ocean
outside the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. It sustained those
maximum wind speeds for 37 hours and spent three consecutive days as a
category 5 hurricane—making it the longest of any cyclone in the world
since 1932 to maintain that intensity.15 The occurrences of Harvey and
Irma—making landfall within two weeks of each other—were the first
time in recorded history that two category 4 or higher hurricanes struck the
U.S. mainland in the same year.
Hurricane Maria: Maria was the first category 5 hurricane ever to make
landfall in Dominica, and the strongest hurricane to make landfall in
15 Angelica LaVito, "Irma May Have Caused $42.5 Billion to $65 Billion in Property
Damage, Report Says," CNBC, last modified September 19, 2017,
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/19/irma-may-have-caused-42-point-5-billion-to-65-
billion-in-property-damage-report.html.
106
Puerto Rico since 1928. It was the deadliest of 2017’s three major storm,
with over 2,900 fatalities.16
Millions Powerless
Hurricane Maria ruined 80 per cent of Puerto Rico’s poles and all
communication transmission lines, resulting in the loss of power to all of
the island’s residents. All communication services were lost and water
supplies were wrecked. By the end of 2017, half of Puerto Rico’s residents
were still without power, and by end of January 2018, electricity had been
repaired and restored to about 65 percent of the island. 2018 marked the
eighth year with approximately 8 billion-dollar disasters, surpassing the
16 Jeff Goodell, "The Perfect Storm: How Climate Change and Wall Street Almost Killed
Puerto Rico," Rolling Stone, last modified September 12, 2018,
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-
damage-722570/.
107
long-term average of 6.2 per year. Of the 246 (as of April 2019) weather
disasters since 1980, tropical cyclones have caused the most damage:
$927.5 billion total, with an average cost of almost $22 billion per event.17
Urgent Need for Climate Adaptation
Climate variability has rapidly changed the coastal zone environments by
making them more vulnerable to damage and destruction as majority of
the coastal zones are lying around and below sea level. This is especially
visible along the coasts surrounding the Baltic Sea and the North Sea.
Moreover, this phenomenon is also present around coasts lying on the
South of Equator. Another major reason for coastal zone deterioration is
saline intrusion and soil collapsing. This is attributed to two things:
climate changes that are unpredictable and hence not well prepared for,
and rise in human settlements around the coasts. It is estimated that there
are approximately 400 to 500 million people living along the coasts.
Adding this population which is projected to grow to the burden of
increased tourism activities will further exacerbate the issues caused by
climate change. Thus, the level of effort and research that needs to go in to
make the coasts livable and sustainable again will have to be significantly
greater than it is today.
17 Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com), "The World's Deadliest Hurricanes, Typhoons and
Cyclones," DW.COM, accessed February 6, 2020, https://www.dw.com/en/the-worlds-
deadliest-hurricanes-typhoons-and-cyclones/a-45460388.
108
Creating Awareness to Deal with Uncertainties
Climate change is a global phenomenon affecting everyone in different
ways. And it is imperative that each and every one of us shoulders the
responsibility to help curb its damaging effects. Hence, community
involvement along with increased government interest in sustainable
policy making is a must for dealing with climate change. Today, many
private organizations have taken the responsibility to create awareness on
coral reef rehabilitation, ecology management and preserving water
sources from pollution. These initiatives have helped create a symbiosis
between the government and the public in saving the coasts from damage.
Projection of Scenarios
Researchers and policy makers often ignore or overlook certain angles of
climate change effects on coastal zones. This fundamental flaw then
causes problems in the future when unlikely damages take place. Thus, to
prevent this from happening, multiple scenarios should be projected before
any policy is made. For example, it is unlikely that sea levels will stop
rising any time soon. Thus, researchers and policy makers should keep this
scenario in mind and plan for any uncertainties that may arise with this
climate change consequence. The Monte Carlo method is one way through
witch this can be done. In this method probabilities are assigned to
independent variables. Monte Carlo simulations are used to model the
probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be
109
predicted due to the intervention of random variables.18 It is a
technique used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty in
prediction and forecasting models. In this way, probabilities will be
assigned to random outcomes and the forecasts for natural events that
damage coasts will be inclusive of uncertainties.
The new and revised action plans and policies need to be robust
because they do not only have to deal with uncertainty related to future
climate effects but also consider future socioeconomic developments as.
Moreover, these plans must be flexible enough to incorporate new rules
and regulations so that they do not hinder new developments.
One way to deal with this problem of “robust decision making” is
the strategy of adaptive pathways.19 In this strategy, adaptation pathways
are established that consist of a series of actions. Each step of the series
must lead to a successful plan that can be adopted in the long run with
sustainability and can be changed with multiple scenarios that could play
out in the future. The most promising actions are those with the best
performance in terms of societal benefits and costs. When any plan needs
a follow up revision to adapt to changes, the lessons learned by doing and
the new knowledge of research serve as inputs for it. A refined version of
this approach – strategy of dynamic adaptive policy pathways – has been
used to support the Dutch Delta programme for adaptation to climate
18 Rohan Joseph, "The House Always Wins: Monte Carlo Simulation," Medium, last
modified December 24, 2018, https://towardsdatascience.com/the-house-always-wins-
monte-carlo-simulation-eb82787da2a3?gi=c41325c8a9c7. 19 Marjolijn Haasnoot, "Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river
deltas in a changing environment," Climatic Change 115, no. 3 (December 2012): 795-
819.
110
change.20 Thus, to prevent mishandling of any disastrous event and for
strategic actions to have significant positive impacts on coastal zones,
these adaptive strategies must be adopted.
Low-Regret Adaptation Strategy
Sometimes, strategies which are effective and reasonable do not cost a lot
of capital. Such strategies are called ‘no-regret’ strategies.21 Following are
some of its examples:
Choose building with nature solutions for renewing coastal
infrastructural works when they have reached the end of their life
span (e.g., wetland restoration, dune/beach/shore face
nourishments);
Adjust design criteria to extend the lifetime of infrastructural
works by incorporating the expected sea level rise in the periodic
maintenance / renovation scheme;
Make spatial reservations for nature development (or for other
temporal benefits) which can eventually serve later for future
reinforcement or realignment of coastal defenses
20 "Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A Method for Crafting Robust Decisions for a
Deeply Uncertain World," ScienceDirect.com | Science, Health and Medical Journals, Full Text Articles and Books, accessed February 6, 2020,
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937801200146X. 21 "Climate Adaptation Policies for the Coastal Zone," Coastal Wiki, accessed
February 6, 2020,
https://www.coastalwiki.org/wiki/Climate_adaptation_policies_for_the_coastal_zone.
111
Other no-regrets measures include early warning systems; risk
communication between decision makers and local citizens; sustainable
land management, including land use planning; ecosystem management
and restoration; improvements to water supply, sanitation, irrigation and
drainage systems; development and enforcement of building codes
(considering also geotechnical aspects) and better education and
awareness. Such measures deliver additional benefits, such as
opportunities for tourism, recreation, nature development and other
ecosystem services.
No-regret (or low-regret) measures are implemented step by step,
allowing for adjustment when better knowledge of the impacts of climate
change becomes available. They are preferably designed according to the
insight that natural dynamics generally offer greater long-term resilience
(self-regulating capacity) against climate change impacts than hard man-
made structures.
Conclusion
Coastal environments are among the most important areas for tourism and
recreational activities. Yet such environments are facing the brunt of
climate change which is happening faster than before. The physical
impacts of these changes include sea-level rise, erosion, more frequent
occurrence of extreme weather conditions, droughts, flooding and changes
in ecosystems’ arrangements. Despite the increased interest shown by
scientists, policy makers and researchers on dealing with the menace of
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climate change, many activities and impacts remain virtually uncharted.
This article presents an overview of the existing knowledge on the impacts
of climate change on coastal and marine tourism activities. A number of
knowledge gaps have been identified. More research into specific
activities, interdisciplinary communication, stakeholder dialogue and
policies that incorporate climate into tourism planning and management
are necessary steps to minimize the potential impacts of climate change.
Moreover, Pakistan needs to step its game up in developing sustainable
recreational activities for tourism in its diverse coastal areas so that it can
generate hefty revenue and make a name for itself in the tourism industry.
Currently with the given scenic beauty of landscapes in the coastal areas
of Pakistan, this task will not be difficult provided there is considerable
community and government involvement through proper channels.
113
IMO 2020 – Step towards Cleaner Air
Muhammad Sarfaraz Alam*
Abstract Air pollution poses a serious threat to human life and lives of other
species living on the face of the earth. Since a new set of regulations to
control vessel emissions being implemented from January 1, 2020 by the
IMO (International Maritime Organization) and its relevant body
MARPOL, it is hoped that there will be a considerable improvement in air
quality. On the contrary, main players operating in the shipping industry
and the fuel industry are apprehensive of the IMO 2020 as they believe
such measures will make doing business costly. Here lies very pertinent
questions: can such kind of strict regulations be implemented worldwide?
And how much is Pakistan prepared for the task? This paper aims to
analyze the implications of these new rules.
Introduction
The IMO 2020 encapsulates the new stringent regulations for emission
control and new Sulphur caps for maritime trade, and are aimed to
encourage the use of compliant fuel or alternative methods to reduce
Sulphur-containing emissions. This set of regulations which is going to be
* The writer is doing LLM from Bahria University, Islamabad.
114
implemented from January 1, 2020 will have two-pronged effects on the
fuel industry and maritime trade. On the one hand, it will have a crippling
effect on the industry and not surprising if it is giving headwinds to the
stakeholders, while on the other, it is a beacon of hope for protecting
marine environment and improving air quality globally.
The limit set under the IMO 2020 for Sulphur content consumption
has been sharply reduced up to 77% from 3.5% million metric (m/m) to
0.5% million metric.1 This new limit will be applicable to all the seas and
maritime zones excluding the defined ECA (Emission Control Areas) of
coastal areas in different parts of the world where the Sulphur content
emission’s limit is even much lower i.e. 0.10% m/m. This will improve air
quality across the world and will help in coping with health hazards
caused by poor air quality especially in coastal areas where pollutants in
the air account for more than one lac premature deaths per annum and
many other pulmonary diseases like Asthma.2
Context of IMO 2020
Environment has always been one of the top priorities of the United
Nations since 1970s as this is reflected from the work of its specialized
programmes like the UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme)
which assists developing countries in devising and implementing
1 "Air Pollution," IMO.org accessed December 23, 2019,
http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/A
ir-Pollution.aspx. 2 Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, "Air Pollution," Our World in Data, last modified
November 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution.
115
environment friendly policies. The UN has a specialized agency named
the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for dealing with issues
related to maritime including policymaking, trade, safety, law,
environment or other maritime related issues.
Under the umbrella of the IMO, the International Convention for
the Prevention of Pollution from ships, also known as MARPOL, was
adopted in 1973 and its protocol was brought in 1978. MARPOL 73/78
takes into account emission of pollutants from ships that takes place
through oil spillage, incineration, and discharge of noxious substances
from ships including ballast water or by releasing greenhouse gases i.e.
NOx, Sox or other ozone-depleting substances.3 MARPOL has six
Annexes and Annex VI which particularly deals with air pollution caused
by ships came into force in 2005.
The Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC), a body
of the IMO, revised Annex VI in 2008 that entered into force in 2016.
Later, a new set of regulations for fuel to be used in ships was set and
Sulphur content limit was brought down to 0.5% m/m from 3.5% m/m that
will be implemented from January 1, 2020. Such a drastic change in the
limit for Sulphur content will better air quality by curtailing the amount of
a high Sulphur content called the HSFO (High Sulphur Fuel Oil).
According to new rules, ships are bound to use compliant fuel or
alternative sources to preserve the environment, and if they still prefer to
3 "Air Pollution," IMO, accessed December 23, 2019,
http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/A
ir-Pollution.aspx.
116
use the HSFO then they have to install the Exhaust Gas Cleaning System
(EGCS), commonly known as scrubbers, to curb the emission of Sulphur.
This will increase the operating cost manifold for ship-owners as installing
a scrubber requires huge investment.
Implementation of IMO 2020 Rules
As mentioned earlier, ANNEX VI of MARPOL 73/78 deals with air
pollution caused by ships. Air becomes polluted when ships release oxides
of Nitrogen and Sulphur, Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS), Volatile
Organic Compound (VOC) and emissions through incineration of waste
materials on ships. Out of all these toxic substances, the most hazardous is
Sulphur emission which is a result of very low quality fuel combustion.
The new limits set for Sulphur content is in the light of the IMO regulation
14 which states “SOx and particulate matter emission controls apply to all
fuel oil, as defined in regulation 2.9, combustion equipment and devices
onboard, and therefore include both main and all auxiliary engines
together with items such as boilers and inert gas generators.”4 Till
December 31, 2011 there was a 4.5% m/m ceiling on Sulphur content
consumption in fuel, but after January 1, 2012 it was reduced to 3.5% m/m
which is going to be further trimmed to 3.5% m/m from January 1, 2020.
As far as the limit for Sulphur content in the ECAs is concerned, it was
used to be 1.5% m/m till June 30, 2010 and it remained 1% m/m till
4 "Sulphur Oxides (SOx) – Regulation 14," IMO, accessed December 23, 2019,
http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/S
ulphur-oxides-(SOx)-%E2%80%93-Regulation-14.aspx.
117
December 31, 2014. Since then, the current ceiling i.e. 0.10% m/m has
been in practice.
Listed below are the total four ECAs established by different Annexes of
MARPOL:
1. The area of the Baltic Sea which is defined by Annex I of
MARPOL and it is only for Sulphur content (Sox).
2. The area of the North Sea which is defined by Annex V of
MARPOL and it is also about Sulphur content emission only.
3. The area of North America which is defined by Annex VI of
MARPOL and this came into effect after July 31, 2012. This
includes not only Sulphur content emissions but also Nitrogen and
Particulate matter emissions.
4. The USA and the Caribbean Sea area which is defined by Annex
VI of MARPOL and it incorporates not only Sulphur content
emissions but also emissions of Nitrogen from ships and
Particulate matter emissions. This was put into force after
December 31, 2013.
Now here an important question needs to be taken into consideration: how
a ship would be able to use two types of fuels in a single ship for different
areas? The answer lies in the fact that this will be achieved by switching
from one type of fuel to another, and shifting from the main engine to an
auxiliary engine as every ship has another engine other than the main
engine called an auxiliary engine. Thus, a ship before entering the ECAs
118
can switch from its main engine to the auxiliary engine and use compliant
fuel in that engine until it has left the defined emission control area and
reached an open sea or in the area which does not fall under the defined
emission control area of the sea.
The HSFO used in ships is the main ingredient that pollutes the
seas and coastal areas as polluted air travels to those areas and brings
venomous repercussions for human health. The IMO is all ready to get rid
of the HSFO and curb the consequences of using toxic fuel. Consequently,
it has made clear that the high Sulphur content carrying fuel will be
replaced with environment friendly fuel – also known as the Marine Gas
Oil and the ULSFO (Ultra-Low Sulphur Fuel Oil).
Why Is Sulphur Emission So Critical?
Out of all the greenhouse gases namely Nitrous oxide, methane, carbon
dioxide, and ozone, Sulphur oxide is the most poisonous for human health
as it causes many respiratory diseases and there are many studies available
which prove that Sulphur emissions are the reason behind 100,000 to
800,000 deaths a year in coastal areas across the globe which itself is quite
a frightening figure.5 According to a study conducted by Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences, in the USA alone each year 100,000
5 Damian Carrington, "Air Pollution Deaths Are Double Previous Estimates, Finds
Research," The Guardian, last modified March 12, 2019,
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/12/air-pollution-deaths-are-double-
previous-estimates-finds-research.
119
Americans fall victim to air pollution and die of pulmonary and heart
diseases.6
In comparison with other air pollutants emitted from other modes
of transportations, Sulphur emissions from ships are highly hazardous as
its impact on the surrounding environment is detrimental. There are
studies that suggest when cargo ships use the bunker fuel – a residue of the
crude oil left unburnt after all other by-products of the crude oil including
jet fuel, gasoline oil, diesel, etc. are fully combusted – its emissions
contain more Sulphur content, as high as 4%, and can be tantamount to
Sulphur emissions from 50 million diesel-burning cars.7 Due to this
reason, the world at large is conscious about limiting these toxic emissions
which are the eventual ramifications of the industrial growth the world is
going through.
Options for Stakeholders
The shipping industry, oil refineries and the IMO are the main
stakeholders as they are directly related to or involved in maintaining
maritime trade. Apart from them, people inhabiting coastal areas or living
in towns and cities are also the stakeholders as they are the ones who are
6 Alan Neuhauser, "100,000 Americans Die from Air Pollution, Study Finds," US News
& World Report, last modified April 8, 2019, https://www.usnews.com/news/national-
news/articles/2019-04-08/100-000-americans-die-from-air-pollution-study-finds.
7 Pearl Liu and Bonnie Wang, "Ship Emissions Choking the Region: Asia Weekly -
China Daily Asia," China Daily Asia, accessed December 24, 2019,
https://www.chinadailyasia.com/asiaweekly/2016-05/20/content_15436449.html.
120
actually facing the brunt of an alarming rise in air pollution.8 Hence, the
shipping industry is left with no option but to use compliant fuel carrying
lesser amount of Sulphur content whereas refineries have to respond to the
shipping industry’s need by supplying them the desired quality fuel. Need
not to mention that the IMO and especially MARPOL 73/78 will keep a
close eye on the industry operators to make sure the new set of regulations
is being followed in letter and spirit.
Listed below are the ways in which ships can comply to these new rules:
1. Ships need to use compliant fuel having Sulphur content not
exceeding 0.5% m/m which is the MGO or the ULSFO.
2. Other option can include installing the Exhaust Gas Cleaning
Systems commonly known as scrubbers which clean emissions
from ships and if a ship has installed scrubbers on it then it can use
the bunker fuel as well.
3. Ships can also use alternative fuels such as LNG or methanol.
4. The fourth option for ships is to use onshore power while staying
in port instead of using engine power as the ship turn-around time
(duration between a vessel’s arrival at and departure from a port)
entails several days for loading and unloading.
8 "Sulphur 2020 – Cutting Sulphur Oxide Emissions," IMO, accessed
December 25, 2019, http://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Sulphur-
2020.aspx.
121
Enforcement and Legal Challenges
It is true that the IMO has further capped the amount of Sulphur content in
fuel oil with the consent of member countries. Nevertheless, it is only a
regulatory authority and cannot enforce the rules and take legal actions in
case of breach of rules. The responsibility of enforcing such environment
friendly laws lies with coastal states and the governments operating along
seaborne trade routes to take legal actions and prevent its violation in their
jurisdiction.
Each member country is bound to comply with the IMO 2020
Rules and enforce it completely. It is expected that in the beginning these
new limits would be compromised as there is a lack of supply of
compliant fuel and installation of scrubbers is also time-taking. Only a
paltry number of 4% of total ships have installed scrubbers so far.9 At the
74th session of the MEPC, concern was shown by ship-owners and other
stakeholders who believed compliance with the IMO 2020 would not be
possible in a short span of time. At their insistence, it was decided that a
ship has to make a report called FONAR or Fuel Oil Non-Availability
Report in case it does not get compliant fuel from any source. Under the
IMO 2020, it is required from ships to maintain a complete record of
9 "ING: Up to 6% of the Global Fleet Will Use Scrubbers by End of 2020 to Comply with
IMO 2020 | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide," Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide,
Online Daily Newspaper on Hellenic and International Shipping, last modified October 4,
2019, https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/ing-up-to-6-of-the-global-fleet-will-use-
scrubbers-by-end-of-2020-to-comply-with-imo-2020/.
122
buying data and BDNs (Bunker Delivery Notes) so that a log of all their
activities is maintained.10
Impact of IMO 2020
Curbing the limit of Sulphur content usage will have multiple effects on
many sectors. Apparently, the direct impact is on the shipping industry
and the fuel industry as these industries are responsible for generating
seaborne trade volume more than 10.7 billion tons. However, people
living in coastal areas and along major sea trade routes will be the real
beneficiary of the IMO 2020 if implemented fully.
It is beyond a doubt that the shipping industry is going to be
directly affected by these rules as the fuel cost will likely to rise by
approximately 20%, which is very high, and will resultantly surge the
overall shipping cost. Keeping in view the onslaught of climate change
and dearth of availability of compliant fuel, the concern being raised by
ship-owners holds water.
The second biggest stakeholder is the refinery industry which,
under the IMO 2020 regulations, is expected to make sure the supply of
compliant fuel remains seamless so that the huge rise in the demand of
compliant fuel can be met. From January 1, 2020 the bunker fuel
10 Lars Lange and Handrike Kuhl, "Report of the 74th Meeting of IMO's Marine
Environment Protection Committee," International Union of Marine Insurance, accessed
December 25, 2019, https://iumi.com/news/iumi-eye-newsletter-june-2019/report-of-the-
74th-meeting-of-imos-marine-environment-protection-committee.
123
responsible for high concentration of Sulphur content in the atmosphere is
now going to be replaced with distillate fuels which are low in Sulphur
content. The Marine Gas Oil or ultra-low Sulphur fuel would be high in
demand in coming years. The oil industry will be at loss if it does not
respond to this challenge proactively by adapting to the new situation and
making sure the desired fuel supply remains coherent. The vulnerability of
refineries in this regard is more conspicuous in developing countries, say
South Asian countries, where many of oil refineries are not fully equipped
with latest technologies and rely on old technologies whereas need of the
hour suggests otherwise.
As far as human health is concerned, people living in coastal areas
are always exposed to the dangers of emissions. Rise in cases of
pulmonary infections, asthma and cardiac malfunctioning in coastal areas
is a direct result of air pollution caused by unburnt Sulphur content present
in ship emissions. Thus, improving air quality will positively affect
humans populating coastal belts across the globe. Acid rain which is also
caused by Sulphur and Nitro oxides can be avoided or reduced provided
these new rules are followed strictly.
A hike in fuel prices will eventually increase the shipping cost for
customers who will bear this burden. The surge is a logical trickledown
effect and cannot be evaded. However, the situation will improve when
the demand-supply equilibrium would be achieved in the long run.
124
Where Does Pakistan Stand?
Pakistan has been a member of MARPOL since 1994 but Pakistan has not
yet ratified Annex VI of MARPOL. Although Pakistan is not bound
legally to implement the IMO 2020 standards, it would not be possible for
Pakistan to avoid compliance to these new rules owing to the universal
nature of the shipping industry. As ships coming from other countries
would be complying with the IMO 2020, ships going from Pakistan will
also be expected to be using compliant fuel for having an access to many
regions and ports of different countries which are signatory to the
Convention. As international seaborne trade involves many countries at a
time, Pakistan cannot remain unaffected by the new rules being
implemented worldwide. Hence, what is required needs to be done as the
deadline is just around the corner.
Refineries in Pakistan use old technology to refine the crude oil
and are not equipped with new technology to cope with the challenge of
the new era entailing environmental protection awareness. Nonetheless,
refineries in Pakistan will definitely feel the pinch of new strict rules
regarding ship emissions. Pakistan can work on improving the demand
and supply of new compliant fuel by introducing new regulations in
refineries to encourage them to adjust with the changing rules of doing
business.
Legal reforms about emission control is need of the hour as the
whole world is showing its commitment to the cause of environment
125
protection by improving emission standards. Pakistan still lags behind in
this matter and even more importantly in making new laws related to
emission control. Being a coastal state, Pakistan has to design a two-
pronged strategy that can satiate international laws on one hand, and on
the other, can save its population from the adverse effects of pollutants
rampant in the atmosphere due to the use of the low quality bunker fuel
especially in coastal areas, maritime zones which are internal waters,
territorial sea, contagious zone, exclusive economic zone, and the
continental shelf. Time has come for Pakistan to ratify MARPOL ANNEX
VI and jump on the bandwagon so that it can play its role in creating a
cleaner environment for its coastal belt and for the whole world.
Conclusion
The implementation of the IMO 2020 is in the offing. Sulphur emissions
from ships due to the use of low quality bunker fuel in ships are going to
be curtailed as the low quality fuel will be replaced with fuel containing
low Sulphur content, as much low as 0.5% m/m, in all maritime zones of
the seas globally in a bid to thwart hazards of Sulphur emissions.
These new emission rules by MARPOL 73/78 are strict in nature
and will have far-reaching impact on seaborne trade. The responsibility of
implementing these rules lies with the signatory states and coastal states
which have to make sure that the fuel being used in ships sailing through
their waters is in compliance with these new rules so that hazards of air
pollution can be avoided. This new set of rules is quite revolutionary in its
126
nature and will definitely bring down Sulphur emissions worldwide if
implemented thoroughly.
127
Case Review
Greater Bengal in the Making in the Bay of
Bengal
Dr Syed Mohammed Anwer
History holds verdict to the fact that the Bengalis are one of the most
politically aware people in the Indian sub-continent. Their zeal and zest
for nationalism is deep rooted and overshadows even their religious
identities. Perhaps, they are the only nation in the Indian sub-continent in
which the nationalist sentiments outstrip religious affiliation. This had
been proven many times in the past. First, this ultra-nationalism was
exhibited in 1905 when the united Bengal territory was divided by the
British Government of India on religious lines. On July 19, 1905 Lord
Curzon, the Viceroy of India, on the pretext of improving administrative
efficiency sanctioned the partition of united Bengal. The partition plan that
separated the largely Muslim eastern areas from the largely Hindu western
areas came into effect on October 16, 1905. The move was welcomed by
the Muslims of Bengal who were subject to ill treatment at the hands of
the wealthy Hindus of West Bengal. These Hindus were apprehended by
the move and considered it a part of ‘divide and rule’ policy of the British
128
colonial power.1 This eventually led to an outpouring of resentment that
flooded the streets. After facing widespread agitation and riots, the British
Government acquiesced to the Bengali nationalism and reversed the
division of Bengal in 1911. Even the British raj at the epitome of its
administrative power could not resist the brunt of the united Bengali
nationalist sprit.2
What Goes Around Comes Around!
The creation of Bangladesh in 1971 from the debris of East
Pakistan, which was carved out of British India on religious lines in 1947,
was another manifestation of Bengali nationalist sentiments. Not
surprisingly, it all happened with the connivance and complicity of India
which actively took part in the division of Pakistan through political and
military intervention. In 1971, after the fall of Dhaka, Indian Prime
Minister Indira Gandhi swaggered: “today we have sunk Jinnah’s Two
Nation Theory in the Bay of Bengal.” But she could not foresee that the
foundation for Greater Bengal – an idea strongly advocated by Bengali
kingpins like Sarat Chandra Bose, Abul Hashem and Huseyn Shaheed
Suhrwardi – was being laid down concurrently in the same Bay of Bengal.
The Indian leadership is reaping what its predecessors had sown in
1971 when they fomented ethnic fault lines in a bid to dismantle the
eastern wing of Pakistan. The Bengali nationalist sentiments which were
1AbulHashim, In Retrospect (Bangladesh Cooperative Book Society Ltd., 1988), 186. 2ZakiaSoman and Jimmy Dabhi, Peace and Justice (Pearson Education India, 2010), 138-
39.
129
invoked by the Indians in East Bengal, then East Pakistan, will ultimately
culminate in the establishment of United Bengal – repeating what had
happened in 1911 despite the opposition of the mighty British Empire. But
this time, the spurt of Bengali nationalism will take a new shape which can
be predicted by looking at the recent happenings in the region that the
creation of Greater Bengal – an irredentist belief of all the Bengalis – is in
the offing.
Uproar over Citizenship Amendment Act
The latest development in this regard is the promulgation of
Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2019 commonly known as the CAA by the
Indian parliament. According to the CAA, Hindu, Christian, Buddhist,
Jain, Sikh and Parsi migrants who have entered India illegally i.e. without
a visa on or before December 31, 2014 from the Muslim-majority
countries of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh and have stayed in the
country for five years, are eligible to apply for Indian citizenship.
Ironically, the Citizenship Act of India extends Indian citizenship only to
the people of six religions but conspicuously excludes Muslims.
Moreover, it applies only to people coming from three Muslim majority
countries, but snubs the non-Muslims coming from other adjoining
countries. As per the claim made by the Indian government, people of
these six faiths have faced persecution in these three Islamic countries. It
is, therefore, India's moral obligation to provide them shelter.
Unfortunately, this so called ‘moral’ reason given by the Indian
Government does not hold water. Had this been the case, several Non-
130
Muslim countries bordering India, such as Sri Lanka, would have been
included in the Citizenship Bill.3 This is evident from the fact that the
citizenship status of the Tamil-speaking Hindus who were allowed earlier
to “legally” settle in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, to evade
discrimination they faced in Sri Lanka, is thus uncertain and these Tamil-
speaking Hindus are under peril of persecution in India.4 More than
100,000 Sri Lankan Tamils live in India; most of them settled in the
southern states of Tamil Nadu (in the cities of Chennai, Madurai,
Tiruchirappalli, and Coimbatore), Karnataka (in Bangalore), and Kerala
where the BJP has marginal support. Similarly, Nepal and Bhutan are also
excluded from the CAA despite Bhutan being accused of discriminating
against the Hindus through its promotion of Buddhist-centric society.5
Apprehensions vis-à-vis the Citizenship Bill are not limited to the
Muslims only. The Dalits are also wary of the Bill as they fear the wave of
the Hindutva might engulf them as well. Sushil Gautam, a Dalit rights
activist based in Meerut, Uttar Pradesh, alleged that they were being
persecuted for raising their voice. Gautam was arrested for taking out a
march against the imposition of the CAA on December 15, 2019 by the
3 "Rajya Sabha Passes Citizenship Amendment Bill: What is a Hindu and Why Are
Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka Left out of CAB?," MSN, accessed January 8, 2020,
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindia/rajya-sabha-passes-citizenship-amendment-
bill-what-is-a-hindu-and-why-are-myanmar-nepal-bhutan-sri-lanka-left-out-of-cab/ar-
AAK0NL1. 4 Abhishek Madhukar and Rina Chandran, "Tibetan Refugees in India Get Passports, Not Property," The Quint, last modified June 23, 2017,
https://www.thequint.com/news/india/tibetan-refugees-india-passports-not-property. 5 "Rediff on the NeT: Kerala is New Sanctuary for Fleeing Lankan Tamils," Rediff.com:
News | Rediffmail | Stock Quotes | Shopping, accessed January 8, 2020,
http://www.rediff.com/news/apr/14lanka.htm.
131
Uttar Pradesh Police. He said, “The proposed CAA clubbed with the NRC
is a step towards making India a Hindu Rashtra (Nation). First of all, it
alters the basic structure of the constitution by granting citizenship on the
basis of religion. Second, we understand very well what will be the status
of the Dalits in a Hindu nation. Obviously, it will be governed by the rules
of the caste system."6
CAA Targeting the Bengalis
This black law has been condemned and rejected nationwide.
International media has also taken a jibe at the promulgation of the CAA.
Although in media it is generally perceived that the Bill is a discriminating
law against the Muslims of India, in reality it is precisely against the
Bengalis specially who hail from the north east of India. This is the reason
why Mamata Banerjee – the Chief Minister of the West Bengal state and
popularly known as Didi (elder sister) – is vehemently opposing and
rejecting this black and discriminating law. She has a charisma of a
nationalist leader who, in a short span of time, has become a towering
personality revered by all the Bengalis in India. To her, this has become a
matter of life and death. Ms Banerjee has even demanded that an
"impartial organisation" such as the United Nations should form a
committee to see how many people are in favour of the Citizenship
(Amendment) Act. "Let there be an impartial organisation like the United
6 "Everything You Wanted to Know about the CAA and NRC," India Today, last
modified December 23, 2019, https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-
insight/story/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-the-caa-and-nrc-1630771-2019-12-
23.
132
Nations or the Human Rights Commission to form a committee to see how
many people are in favour or against the Citizenship Amendment Act,"
she said while addressing a gathering in Kolkata on December 19, 2019.
Ms. Banerjee’s harsh criticism on the CAA is validated keeping in
view the fact that the Bill actually targets “the Bengalis” as a community
rather than the Muslims of India. After the CAA has been sanctioned, the
acceptance of the Muslims coming from Afghanistan, Pakistan and
Bangladesh seeking Indian nationality is out of question.7 This has irked
Ms Banerjee who believes one of the primary aims of the Bill is to target
the Bengali migrants in the north eastern region of India. Here comes a
pertinent question in mind: Is the official stance taken by the Modi regime
regarding the NRC and the CAA a smoke screen to hide its intention of
persecuting the Muslims of India or, for that matter, any minority of India,
and in fact an attempt to Brahminize some territories of India? To get the
right answer, one has to analyze the statistics.
Empirical Data of Indian Refugees Debunks Modi’s Claims
The Indian government has reluctantly allowed the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees (UHNCR) in India to run a program for it. In
2015, the Indian government granted citizenship to 4,300 Hindu and Sikh
7 "What is the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill 2016?," India Today, last modified October
22, 2018, https://www.indiatoday.in/education-today/gk-current-affairs/story/what-is-
citizenship-amendment-bill-2016-1372701-2018-10-22.
133
refugees who left Afghanistan for India.8 Similarly, some western media
outlets claim that 400 Pakistani Hindu refugees are settled in India. This
number looks meagre in comparison with the number of Bangladeshis
who have moved to India during the past decades. Census carried out in
2001 by the Indian government estimated that there were 3.1 million
Bangladeshis residing in India.9 A different estimate of 2009 claimed that
there were 15 million Bangladeshis residing in India.10 In 2012,
Mullappally Ramachandran, the minister of state for home, claimed that
nearly 1.4 million Bangladeshi migrants entered India in the last decade
alone.11
Hindu and Sikh Refugees in India
from Afghanistan
4,300/
Hindu Refugees in India from
Pakistan
400/
Bengali Refugees in India from
Bangladesh
More than 15,000,000/
8 Jayant Sriram, "4,300 Hindu, Sikh Refugees from Pakistan, Afghanistan Get
Citizenship," The Hindu, last modified June 15, 2015,
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/4300-hindu-and-sikh-refugees-from-pakistan-
and-afghanistan-get-citizenship-in-india/article7316028.ece. 9 Daphne Halkias et al., Female Immigrant Entrepreneurs: The Economic and Social
Impact of a Global Phenomenon (Boca Raton: CRC Press, 2016), 25. 10 Anja Rudnick, Working Gendered Boundaries: Temporary Migration Experiences of Bangladeshi Women in the Malaysian Export Industry from a Multi-sited
Perspective (Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, 2009), 49-51. 11 "India's 'Mexican' Problem: Illegal Immigration from Bangladesh," International
Business Times, accessed January 8, 2020, https://www.ibtimes.com/indias-mexican-
problem-illegal-immigration-bangladesh-213993.
134
This empirical data about the refugees in India makes the picture pretty
much clear. In the light of given data, the non-inclusion of the Hindus and
other immigrants from Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan further elucidates the
objectives of the CAA introduced by the Modi government. This proves
that the Modi government wants to impose the supremacy of the Brahmins
in India, on one hand, for its own political gain and, on the other hand, it
aims to contain the Trinamool Congress (TMC) of Mamata Banerjee in
West Bengal. This was the reason why on the day Home Minister Amit
Shah tabled the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill (CAB) in the Lok Sabha,
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee gave a call to oppose the
"divisive" bill "at any cost", and said not a single citizen of the country
will be allowed to turn into a refugee.12 She made a commitment that the
National Register of Citizens (NRC) and CAB will never be allowed in
Bengal as long as the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is in power. She was of
the opinion that the register of citizens and the new legislation are two
sides of a coin. She also said: "we will not allow anyone to deport any
person from the country. There will be no NRC and no division. There
can't be a divide and rule policy; nothing is bigger than the country.
People can have big political slogans but the country should not suffer due
to it. It's a divisive bill and shall be opposed at any cost."13
12 "TMC Will Never Ever Allow NRC, CAB in West Bengal: Mamata Banerjee," India Today, last modified December 10, 2019, https://wwwnever-ever-allow-nrc-cab-west-
bengal-mamata-banerjee-1626857-2019-12-09.indiatoday.in/india/story/tmc-will-. 13 "Will Not Allow Anyone to Lose Citizenship Due to NRC, CAB: Mamata Banerjee,"
The Wire, accessed January 8, 2020, https://thewire.in/law/will-not-allow-anyone-to-lose-
citizenship-due-to-nrc-cab-mamata-banerjee.
135
The TMC has 22 members in the Lok Sabha and 13 in the Rajya
Sabha. Wondering why the Centre was seeking so many documents as
proof of citizenship, Mamata Banerjee said, ‘the BJP government is only
interested in harassing the masses’. Reacting to Mamata Banerjee's
allegation, BJP state general secretary Sayantan Basu said that she was
worried as her minority vote bank might get affected if the NRC is
implemented.14
Rise of Nationalist Mamata Banerjee
In fact, Mamata Banerjee has emerged as a unanimous leader of
the Hindus as well as the Bengali Muslims. Ms Banerjee in West Bengal
and Hasina Wajid in erstwhile East Bengal i.e. Bangladesh have become
beacons of hope who lead their people under the all-inclusive banner of
Bengali nationalism. These are the ground realities that cannot be denied.
Historically, this has remained the long suppressed desire of the
Bengalis. Sarat Chandra Bose from the Indian National Congress, Hussain
Shaheed Suhrwardi and Abul Hashim from the Bengal chapter of the
Indian Muslim League had advocated the cause even before the partition
of India in 1947. Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah was also in
support of the move. Nehru and Vallabhai Patel vehemently rejected the
proposition. But it appears as if the Bengali nationalism has awoken from
slumber after 1971 in the wake of the unjust CAA and the NRC. Huseyn
14 "TMC Will Never Ever Allow NRC, CAB in West Bengal: Mamata Banerjee," India
Today, last modified December 10, 2019, https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/tmc-will-
never-ever-allow-nrc-cab-west-bengal-mamata-banerjee-1626857-2019-12-09.
136
Shaheed Suhrawardy on April 27, 1947 stated: “Let us pause for a
moment to consider what Bengal can be if it remains united. It will be a
great country, indeed the richest and the most prosperous in India capable
of giving to its people a high standard of living, where a great people will
be able to rise to the fullest height of their stature, a land that will truly be
plentiful. It will be rich in agriculture, rich in industry and commerce and
in course of time it will be one of the powerful and progressive states of
the world. If Bengal remains united this will be no dream, no fantasy.”15
This is what the Bengalis demand today; nothing less nothing more.
15 Christophe Jaffrelot, "A Country in Search of Identity," in A History of Pakistan and
Its Origins (Anthem Press, 2004)
137
Report Review
Review of “Revitalizing Pakistan’s Fisheries;
Options for Sustainable Development”, The
World Bank Report 2018
Hafiz Inam
The World Bank, with other international donor
agencies,L’AgenceFrançaise De Développement (AFD) and the United
Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), is providing both
technical and financial support to Pakistan’s aspirations to achieve blue
growth. For this, a comprehensive study was carried out jointly by WB
consultants and other Implementing Partners (IPs) to assess the potential
of Pakistan fisheries. This report underpins this support. While further
unfolding the report, it provides an overview of the current context and
opportunities with technical analysis of impediments and
recommendations for ways forward. The report covers the entire fisheries
sector in Pakistan including marine and inland capture fisheries,
aquaculture, and the post-harvest value chain. The focus of the report is
primarily technical, yet it also identifies the intended and unintended
political implications of the issue. Some of these arise from the structural
138
reforms and devolution of power undertaken as part of the 2010
Eighteenth Amendment to the Constitution of Pakistan.
As stated in the report, the consultants believed that Fisheries have
an opportunity to become a much stronger engine of economic growth and
social development, though the underlying potential of Pakistan’s fisheries
and aquatic resources is not reflected in current production, growth, and
value. Yet the sector has much more to offer in terms of boosting export
revenues, creating decent jobs, supporting livelihoods in coastal
communities, improving domestic nutrition and food security, and closing
Pakistan’s significant economic gender inequality, referring to the
narrowing gender gap commitment of Pakistan. The report highlighted
that the government of Pakistan recognizes these opportunities and has
signaled its desire to increase the contribution of the fishery sector towards
these goals. Referring to the global demand, the consultants shared that
potential for protein-rich fisheries products is rising, providing
opportunities for ocean-facing countries such as Pakistan. Fish is the
world’s most traded food commodity. Global capture fisheries production
increased from about 70 million tons in 1970 to 93 million tons in 1990,
and has stayed roughly constant since.
The WB acknowledges the fact that improved management of
marine resources can help prevent large declines in production. Adding to
this, the trend analysis in report indicates that if current trends continue,
Pakistan’s major commercial species groups, including demersal and
pelagic fish, and shrimps, are projected to decline substantially in total
139
stock size, undermining the valuable harvests that they currently support.
An increasing proportion of these harvests will consist of smaller and
lower-value individuals. The report emphasized the need of a program to
reduce the current levels of overfishing that could help reverse these
trends, maintain current production quantities, and increase the value of
that production. Subsequently, increased inputs like too many boats
chasing too few fish also leads to high costs, and thus reducing overfishing
will also increase profits. Presenting the cost analysis, the consultants
shared that combined gains from increased marine fish production and
reduced costs are conservatively estimated to be worth between US$400
million and US$1,200 million over 30 years. Aquaculture presents
opportunities to diversify exports away from marine fisheries. Aquaculture
is one of the fastest-growing food sectors globally. The experience of
neighboring countries shows the potential for Pakistan to contribute to and
benefit from this growth. Putting aquaculture on a growth trajectory that
matches those of India and Bangladesh would expand the industry to
annual production of over 560,000 tons after 10 years, up from the current
151,000 tons. By comparison, current growth rates lead to an only slightly
enlarged sector with 183,000 tons of production annually in that time
frame. Improving value added in post-harvest value chains is one of the
most feasible ways to improve fisheries’ economic contribution. It was
mentioned that Pakistani fish exporters receive relatively low prices
because the majority of their product is unprocessed or targeted towards
low-value market segments. High-value markets such as the EU, Japan,
and the United States are the world’s biggest markets for seafood, yet at
present, they account for less than 3 percent of Pakistan’s export earnings
140
from fisheries. The report points out that with improvements in quality,
recognized through international certification, Pakistan’s fisheries could
capture a bigger percentage of these markets. In addition to economic
benefits, fisheries offer important benefits for food security and nutrition.
Some nutrition facts reflected in the report indicated that Pakistan urgently
needs improved sources of nutrition: currently 50 percent of women and
children (under five years old) are malnourished, and 44 percent of
children are stunted physically and cognitively. Greater fish consumption,
particularly among the poor, could help. Fish is a good source of proteins,
healthy fats, and essential nutrients, and is highly beneficial for child
development and cognition.
Based on the consultative research, the report highlights the way
forward that management of natural resources needs a more integrated
approach. Excessive exploitation, mismanagement, and pollution have
degraded ecosystems in Pakistan waters, reducing their productivity and
endangering resource-dependent livelihoods. One reason is that fisheries
management has developed in isolation from other activities: the value of
fisheries is recognized, but policy linkages with other sectors, including
water management and agriculture, are under-developed. Integration is
key to maximizing overall economic benefits while minimizing damage to
the environment. Pakistan can take advantage of earlier policy and
strategy development efforts. The 2007 National Policy and Strategy for
Fisheries and Aquaculture Development in Pakistan remains largely
relevant, though it was not adopted at the time due to political transition. If
updated and adopted, such a policy strategy could help ensure that
141
activities in different fisheries work in tandem. For example, aquaculture
has strong growth potential in the short to medium term, which could
provide income for rural households, as well as food security and nutrition
benefits. In the longer term, improved management of marine fisheries
could prevent diminishing harvests and ensure sustainable growth in value
and jobs. Impacts from one part of the sector – for instance, aquaculture’s
demand for fishmeal, and pressure on coastal habitats – must be managed
with the other parts of the sector in mind. A national policy framework is
needed to manage such tradeoffs and realize complementarities.
Overall, the report reflects that rigorous research and consultative
procedures with relevant stakeholders were carried out to develop this
study report. To sum up the recommendations, report represents a detailed
set of actions for addressing the identified challenges and charting a
sustainable course forward. These are arranged around six key themes: (1)
creating an enabling environment for growth, (2) managing marine capture
fisheries for long-term sustainability, (3) ensuring sustainable inland
capture fisheries, (4) supporting the development of an environmentally
sensitive aquaculture industry, (5) improving value chain performance,
and (6) optimizing the benefits of a productive fisheries sector for social
goals.