MARINE CARGO & SPECIE RISK ACCUMULATION …RELEVANT YORK/ANTWERP RULES 1994 RULE OF INTERPRETATION...
Transcript of MARINE CARGO & SPECIE RISK ACCUMULATION …RELEVANT YORK/ANTWERP RULES 1994 RULE OF INTERPRETATION...
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MARINE CARGO & SPECIE RISK ACCUMULATION ON SHORE
April 2016
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AGENDA
Background
Lessons learned from recent Marine Catastrophe events
– Risk management practices
– Data capture
Quantifying Cargo & Specie Cat risk
– Cargo-specific vulnerability
– Estimating exposure accumulations
Concluding remarks
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RMS BACKGROUND
RMS is the world’s leading provider of products and services for
the quantification and management of catastrophe risk
Work with most major insurance and reinsurance companies
in US & Europe
$2 trillion worth of insurance and capital markets
transactions based on RMS Risk Models
Trusted by regulators and rating agencies for over 25 years
RMS catastrophe risk models used for rated capital market
transactions
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RECENT MARINE LOSSES: BAD LUCK OR THE NEW “NORMAL”?
Four record setting catastrophes for
Marine insurance in the past 5 years:
– 2011 Tohoku earthquake and
tsunami – $1B-$3B
– 2012 Costa Concordia: $2B loss
– 2012 Hurricane Sandy: $3B loss
– 2015 Tianjin explosions: $3B-$6B
loss (and still growing?)
The Marine Industry should expect more losses of this magnitude or greater!
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EVOLUTION OF PORTS THE PAST 100 YEARS
Development of container ships has
revolutionized the global shipping industry
and dramatically improved quality of life
However, containerization has also led to an
increase in Catastrophe risk:
– Huge increase in shipping volume
– Abandoning river ports (lower Cat risk) in
favor of sea ports (higher Cat risk)
– Longer-term, climate change will further
increase this risk
London 100 Years Ago
Shanghai Today
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GROWTH IN SHIPPING CONTRIBUTES TO CARGO LOSSES
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013
International Seaborne Trade (MM tons)
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AND CLIMATE CHANGE WILL JUST MAKE IT WORSE….
Risky Business project Co-Chaired by New York Mayor
Bloomberg looked at the risk from storms, heatwaves
and flooding due to climate change
– RMS provided the detailed sector modelling of the
impact of climate change on coastal communities.
Climate change driven sea-level rise following from
higher representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5)
will increase expected losses from surge in New
York as follows:
Year Sea Level Rise* Property Surge AAL
Increase
2030 14cm 20%
2050 32cm 79%
2100 89cm 224%
* Sea level rise relative to 2010: Robert Kopp et al http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014EF000239/epdf
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LESSONS LEARNED FROM RECENT CARGO CAT LOSSES
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HURRICANE SANDY (2012): A WAKE-UP CALL!
Sandy: Caused a record (at the time) $3B+
marine loss
Some effective risk management enabled
the Port to return to action quickly
BUT Marine mitigation focused on Wind
WHILE Marine losses were driven by Surge
Most Marine insurers also took Property
loss: Clash!
0
5
10
15
20
25
Category 1
Loss $
B
$18.75B
$21.75B
Sandy Insured Losses
Marine Cat risk must be managed and done
so in conjunction with Property Cat
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HURRICANE SANDY LESSONS LEARNED
Hurricane preparations focused on wind rather than
surge
– Containers were unstacked to avoid tipping in wind
– Paintings in art galleries moved to basement to
avoid wind (broken glass) damage
Port used as “long-term storage lot” for autos
Potential moral hazard of “slow moving” (and well-
insured) artwork
Poor insurer knowledge of cargo in transit exposure
made for slow identification and quantification of loss
and delayed claims payments
Storm surge risk at coastal locations can be identified & quantified, thus
enhancing the ability to mitigate risk and manage future loss
100yr Surge Surface Elevation
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TIANJIN EXPLOSIONS: LESSONS LEARNED
Third largest port in the World
Numerous accidental explosions (21 Tons
TNT equivalent) and fire at hazardous
chemicals storage facility in the port
Total Port damages could reach $5B-$6B
Large quantities of Cargo containers
15,000 new cars (up to 70,000 cars?)
176 deaths
800 injuries
Loss estimate continues to grow
Industry data capture practices must change to solve
the problem of port accumulations
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HOW BIG IS 21 TONS TNT EQUIVALENT?
1996: Khobar Towers
Hezbollah: largest
terrorist bomb on record
10 Tons TNT
+
1996: Khobar Towers
Hezbollah: largest
terrorist bomb on record
10 Tons TNT
Accidental explosion was more than 2x the largest terrorist bomb on record
+
1993: World Trade
Center bomb
1 Ton TNT
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TIANJIN “GROWTH IN LOSS” OVER TIME
While it is common for loss estimates in major
events to increase over time, Tianjin highlighted:
Ever-growing cargo exposure in Ports
Insurers data practices do NOT enable them
to estimate how much Cargo exposure they
have in a given port
– “…it was unacceptable for the industry to have
failed to address its poor modelling of cargo
exposures, having again been “surprised” by the
cargo losses arising from the explosion in the
Chinese port in August….” Ed Noonan, CEO
Validus
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Credit Suisse Guy Carpenter IUMI
Growth in Estimated Marine Loss Over Time
$Billions
Aug 17, 2015 Sept 4, 2015 Feb 3, 2016
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RISING TO THE CHALLENGE OF PORT EXPOSURE
Insurer cargo exposure in Ports is a “known
unknown”
Average daily exposure in major global ports can
be massive (Shanghai= $15B+)
Current insurance industry data capture practices
do not support the detailed quantification of Port
exposure
“High Tech Pirates hacked a shipping company to
figure out the perfect ship to plunder and located
specific high value containers” Business Insider:
March 1, 2016
Detailed estimates of exposure by cargo type
within ports can help raise the bar
The insurance industry must improve data capture on Cargo in Transit in order to
best manage major accumulations such as Ports
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OTHER ACCUMULATIONS: AUTO STORAGE LOTS
Auto storage lots (manufacturers, dealers, rental
cars) represent aggregations of big ticket items
Autos are at high risk of hail damage
Cosmetic damage typically = total loss
Covered lot vs. non-covered lot
Key storage lot parameters
Location
Storage capacity
Values of cars stored
Covered/non covered
Local hazard
Exposure in Auto storage lots must be
tracked – particularly in areas of high risk
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OTHER ACCUMULATIONS: FREE PORTS
There are over 20 major Free Ports globally – havens for
the storage of art, valuables and collectibles
Major benefits of Free Ports:
o Security
o Storage
o Tax advantages
Huge but unknown accumulations of exposure in Free
Ports
o Geneva Free Port: "It would be probably the best
museum in the world if it was a museum".[(Jean-Rene
Saillard of the British Fine Art Fund)
Major Cargo & Specie writers should attempt to
estimate exposure at Free Ports
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OTHER SOURCES OF CARGO & SPECIE ACCUMULATION
Fixed locations with relatively known values
o Art Galleries
o Museums
o Wealthy households
o Commercial businesses
Importance of data capture
o Address
o Specie type & values
o Level of protection
o Building construction type
Major Cargo & Specie writers should attempt to
estimate exposure at all key locations
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KOBE (1995) & TOHOKU (2011): OPERATIONAL RISK LESSONS LEARNED
Kobe port was built on two artificial islands
– Significant liquefaction led to flooded cargo
– Amplified shaking destroyed piers & cranes
90% of Kobe berths were inoperable. Alternative
ports couldn’t handle Kobe traffic
Shipping cost increased significantly
Most roads, railroads and lifelines connecting the
port suffered severe damage. Long recovery
time of infrastructure vs. port
Tohoku: many adjacent ports impacted
Port operational risk planning needs to
incorporate risk of adjacent Ports and
connecting infrastructure
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CHALLENGES OF MANAGING MARINE CARGO & SPECIE CAT RISK
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CHALLENGES OF MARINE CARGO & SPECIE CAT MODELING
Vulnerability:
Current industry “best practice” is to model Cargo & Specie as “Warehouse Contents” in Cat model
– The actual vulnerability varies widely depending on the type of Cargo or Specie
– Underlying hazard can vary significantly depending on where you assume the Cargo & Specie is located
Exposure:
Cargo & Specie exposures change over time
– Exposure can move and the location is frequently unknown
– Values change over time
– Exposure faces a wide range of Cat perils as it moves around the World
– Data capture practices are sub-optimal
Best practices for Marine Cat risk management dictate the understanding
of Cargo Cat risk and its correlation with Property Cat risk
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MARINE MODEL VALUE PROPOSITION
Portfolio Management
– Holistic view of Cat risk including Marine (5%-15% of property Cat amount)
– Include Marine Cat in capital modeling (Lloyds RDS, Solvency II)
– Improve decisions around reinsurance needs
– Improve exposure management
Cargo Underwriting
– Improve pricing of Cat component of Cargo
• Pricing models specific to cargo type with improve competitiveness and
risk selection
• Enable companies to increase premiums
– Better risk selection and pricing, leads to increased premiums and more
profitable Cargo book
Total Cat Risk
Marine Cat
Property &Human Cat
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MARINE CARGO & SPECIE VULNERABILITY
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VULNERABILITY: CHALLENGES WITH CURRENT MARKET PRACTICE
Current industry best practice: model all cargo
types as “warehouse contents”
Challenges with this approach
In reality, vulnerability will vary significantly
based on:
– Cargo type
– Packing practices
– Storage facility
– Location
4 red curves = North Atlantic hurricane model, warehouse contents (low,
medium, high, very high damageability).
Grey Curves = Cargo model, average damageability.
Wind Vulnerability
Modeling of specific cargo & Specie
types will provide a more accurate
and typically lower risk
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Cargo & Specie Specialized Vulnerability Curves
Differentiating vulnerability by cargo type:
o 18 Cargo & Specie types (auto, electronics, break bulk, consumables, general
specie…)
o 12 Storage methods (container, warehouse, tank, outside…)
o Factoring in potential salvage value
o 10 Damage mechanisms modeled (wind, water, volume loss….)
o Consideration of damage reduction measures (movability, storage in safe….)
Key perils to monitor
o Wind and surge
o Earthquake
o Hail
o Flood
o Terrorism
Model losses at key locations and analyze correlation with property losses
HOW DAMAGEABLE IS IT?
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Marine Product Categories / Occupancy
OCC_SCHEME OCC_TYPE Occupancy Type
RMSMARINE
0 Unknown
1 Automobiles
2 Break Bulk
3 Dry Bulk
4 Liquid Bulk
5 Consumables
6 Temperature Controlled
7 Electronics
8 Explosives
9 General Cargo
10 Heavy Industry
11 Petroleum Products
12 Pharmaceuticals
13 Project Cargo
14 Livestock
15 General Specie
16 Fine Art & Collectibles
17 Cash In Transit
18 Jewelers’ Block
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Storage Configuration (Construction
Class)
BLDG_SCHEME BLDG_CLASS Construction Class
RMSCGSPEC
0 Unknown
1 Special Design Facility
2 Silo
3 Liquid Tank
4 Gas Tank
5 Inside Warehouse at Port
6 Containerized - Inside Warehouse
7 Containerized - Stacked Outside
8 Open Lot or Stockpiled Outside
9 At Destination - Warehouse
10 At Destination - Retail
11 Museum or Institution
12 Retail or Private Building
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Incorporating Underwriter Specific Knowledge
Contents Grade Damageability
1 High Damageability
2 Moderate Damageability
3 Average Damageability
4 Low Damageability
Specificity of product (e.g. fishmeal vs.
canned food, both “consumables”)
Packaging – better or worse than average
Loss mitigation measures of warehouse,
storage facility, or port terminal – better or worse
than average.
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Robust Risk Differentiation
– 18 cargo types
Determines susceptibility to
damage
– Movement
– Rain water
– Flooding
– Contamination
– Power loss
– Port Delays
DIFFERENTIATING RISK BY CARGO CATEGORY
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DETAILED IDENTIFICATION OF SPECIE TYPE & SITUATION
Specie Types (Occupancy)
Specie Storage Combinations (Construction)
Marine Modifier Option
Salvage Potential
Unknown
Lowest
Low
Average
High
Very High
Cargo & Specie
Packaging
Unknown
Deficient
Standard
Superior
Cargo & Specie
Protection
Unknown
None
Slightly Protected
Well Protected
Specie Storage
Unknown
Inside Vault
Outside Vault
Window
Sprinkler Type
Unknown
Wet
Dry
Specie Secondary Modifiers
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MARINE CARGO & SPECIE EXPOSURE AGGREGATIONS
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Current industry Best Practice: model
estimated exposure at the centroid of the
port
Challenges with this approach
Where is the centroid of a Port?
Risk can vary drastically within a large
Port
The type and value of cargo stored
varies by terminal
Hazard Varies Widely Within a Port*
Nil
3%
35%
45%
* Amounts shown represent 250 yr modeled Wind+Surge losses for “Contents”
EXPOSURE: CHALLENGES WITH MARKET PRACTICES
Modeling of specific cargo & Specie
locations will provide a more
accurate measure of risk
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PORT-SPECIFIC INDUSTRY EXPOSURE DATABASES (IEDS)
Enabling a Market Share Approach
Throughput by cargo type
o Volume
o Import/export
o Dwell time by cargo type
o Local cargo handling practices
o Seasonality
Storage facilities
o Location (lat/lon, elevation)
o Facility type (warehouse, tank, silo….)
o Number of floors
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TERMINALS Terminal Type Name
Container
APM Terminal
Brooklyn Port Authority Marine Terminal
Maher Terminal
Port Newark Container Terminal
General Cargo/Break Bulk
New York Container Terminal
Red Hook Container Terminal
Global Marine Terminal
Automobile
North East Auto Terminal (NEAT)
The Elizabeth Port Authority Marine Terminal
Port Newark
Port Jersey-Port Authority Marine Terminal
South Brooklyn Marine Terminal
Petroleum Products
International Matex Tank Terminal (IMTT)
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OPEN LOT STORAGE (PORT ELIZABETH)
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VALUE PROPORTION DISTRIBUTION
O
c
c
u
p
a
n
c
y
T
y
p
e
New York/New Jersey Distribution of Value (in Million USD) Construction Class
Value in USD % Special Design Facility
Silo Tanks Inside
Warehouse Containerized -
Inside Warehouse Containerized - Stacked Outside
Open Lot or Stockpiled
Outside
Unknown 5% - 5% 5% 20% 10% 20% 40%
Automobiles 8% - - - 5% - 5% 90%
Break Bulk 14% - - - 50% - - 50%
Dry Bulk 3% - 10% - 45% - - 45%
Liquid Bulk - - - - - - - -
Consumables 13% - - - 10% 45% 45% -
Temperature Controlled 1% - - - 70% 30% - -
Electronics 3% - - - 70% 20% 10% -
Explosives - - - - - - - -
General Cargo 18% - - - 34% 33% 33% -
Heavy Industry 10% - - - 33% - 34% 33%
Petroleum Products 23% - - 85% - 5% 10% -
Pharmaceuticals 2% - - - - 50% 50% -
Project Cargo 1% - - - - - - 100%
General Specie 1% - - - - 100% - -
Known through research
Partially estimated
Estimated
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Current Practice
– Code lat/lon of Port Centroid in Property
model
– Assume contents coverage
Impacts vary significantly
– Vulnerability: Product type & storage
configuration
– IED: Spatial distribution of exposure
Property Model is Too coarse for Underwriting Marine Profitably…
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IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING OF CARGO RISK IN PORTS
Estimate of cargo values by type and
location enables quantification and
market share calculation of risk
Models enable understanding of port-
specific risk
– Breadth and severity of natural perils
facing a Port
– Wind vs. Surge
– Seasonal factors (hurricane season)
– Liquefaction risk
To improve on this market-share approach the Cargo industry will need
to develop real-time cargo tracking capabilities
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CONCLUDING REMARKS
The Marine industry will continue to incur losses of
magnitude equal to and greater than recent events
Lessons learned from these events coupled with
science-based models can reduce this risk
– Improved understanding of risk
• Source and timing of risk
• Differentiate areas at risk of wind, surge & EQ
• Magnitude of risk
– Catastrophe preparation
– Pricing Cat portion of Cargo risk
The industry must improve data capture, particularly
for Cargo in Transit to best understand and manage
the risk
Download RMS Cargo study on
www.rms.com
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THANK YOU!
Peter Ulrich
+1 (510) 608-3341
Paul Burgess
RMS Singapore
+65 9758 2208
(GENERAL AVERAGE) BASIC PRINCIPLES, RELEVANT YORK/
ANTWERP RULES 1994 & CASE STUDY
BY
WILLIAM PANG
DIRECTOR
MARINE CLAIMS OFFICE OF ASIA
The General Insurance Association of Singapore & The Singapore Maritime Foundation (SMF)
Marine Risk Accumulation at Shore and at Sea
YORK/ANTWERP RULES - DEFINITION
Rule A There is a General Average act when, and only when, any (1) extraordinary sacrifice or expenditure is (2) intentionally and reasonably made or incurred for the (3) common safety for the purpose of (4) preserving from peril the property involved in a (5) common maritime adventure.
1. Extraordinary
Not something which cargo have right to expect Ship-owner to bear under Contract of Affreightment.
2. Intentionally and Reasonably Made or Incurred
(as contrasted with “accidental”)
(e.g. Grounding – accidental damage to ship and cargo; intentional jettison of cargo and damage to engines, plus salvage expenses.
Fire – Accidental damage to ship and cargo; Intentional damage by water to extinguish).
3. Common Safety
The action must be for the COMMON SAFETY and not merely for the safety of part of the property involved.
4. Peril
Peril must be real and substantial and not imagined, but need not be immediate.
Peril must affect all interests (refrigerating machinery breakdown-danger to meat cargo is not G.A.)
5. Common Maritime Adventure
There must be more interests than one (e.g. Ship and Cargo).
RELEVANT YORK/ANTWERP RULES 1994
RULE OF INTERPRETATION
York/Antwerp Rules override law of destination.
Provision of numbered rules, whether positive or negative, override lettered rules.
LETTERED RULES (General Principles)
Rule A – Definition
Rule B – General Average sacrifices and expenses shall be borne by different contributory interests.
Rule C - Only such losses, damages and expenses which are due to the direct consequences of General Average Act (Damage to environment, release of pollutant substances, delay or loss of market not admitted in General Average).
(cont’d)
YORK/ANTWERP RULES 1994
LETTERED RULES (General Principles)
Rule D – Losses due to fault of parties to adventure (Rights to contribute not affected but this does not prejudice any remedies/defences may be opened against or to that party in respect of such fault).
Rule E – Onus of proof (Party claiming in General Average must show the loss or expense claimed is properly allowed in General Average).
Rule F – Substituted expenses (see also Rule 14). Rule G – General Average adjusted as regards both loss and contribution upon basis of values at time and place when and where the adventure ends.
YORK/ANTWERP RULES 1994
NUMBERED RULES (Specific Cases)
Sacrifices
Rule 1 – Jettison of Cargo
Rule 2 – Damage by jettison (eg. damage to ship)
Rule 3 – Extinguishing fire (eg. damage to cargo)
Rule 5 – Voluntary stranding (eg. intentional beaching of vessel)
Rule 7 – Damage in refloating (eg. vessel’s engine)
Rule 9 – Ship’s materials etc. burnt for fuel
Rule 12 – Damage to cargo in discharging, storing reloading & stowing
YORK/ANTWERP RULES 1994
Expenditures
Rule 6 – Salvage remuneration, taking into account the skill & efforts in preventing or minimising damage to environment as referred to article 13 of The International convention of salvage 1989.
Rule 8 – Discharging cargo into lighters
Rule 10 – Entering and departing port of refuge expenses (eg. port disbursements, fuel and stores and handling of cargo necessary for common safety and/or to enable repairs to be carried out)
Rule 11 – (a) Crew wages and maintenance, bunkers and stores consumed during prolongation of voyage as occasioned by the vessel’s detention at the port of refuge for damage inspection and repairs. -- (b) Allowance of crew wages and maintenance, bunkers and stores in General Average as per (a) above, if repairs were necessary for safe protection of voyage.
YORK/ANTWERP RULES 1994
Substituted Expenses
Rule 14 – Temporary repairs (see also Rule F)
Allowances in General Average
Rule 16 – For sacrifice of Cargo
Rule 18 – For sacrifice of Ship
Rule 20 – Commission – 2%
Rule 21 – Interest @ 7% per annum
Contributory Values
Rule 17 – Contributory Values
Case Study – “FIRMINO II” Container Vessel
Casualty – Collision with VLCC “Memphis D” in the Singapore Strait
Casualty Summary:-
o Container vessel “Firmino II” runs aground following contact with VLCC “MEMPHIS D”.
o One of the containers containing DG ignites due to the impact of the collision, causing a fire to break out in Hold 2.
o There is some bunker pollution from “Firmino II”.
o Smit are engaged on LOF terms (invoking SCOPIC), to put out fire and refloat vessel
o After vessel was successfully re-floated and fire put out, damage inspection carried out reveals severe hull damages sustained.
o All cargoes are required to be force discharged in order for repairs to be carried out.
o As a result, a transhipment vessel was arranged to forward cargo to discharge port instead of storing the cargo at port during repairs.
o After carrying out temporary repairs as recommended by Class Surveyor, the vessel was towed to a repair port.
o Owners of “Firmino II” declared General Average. MCO appointed as Adjusters.
Applying the York-Antwerp Rules to the above casualty:-
Rule A:
General Average Act – EXTRAORDINARY Salvage services under LOF terms (both refloating and fire fighting operations).
The above General Average was INTENTIONALLY AND REASONABLY made or incurred.
The above salvage services were for the COMMON SAFETY of ship and cargo.
For the purpose of preserving from PERIL the property involved, i.e. ship and cargo.
The said voyage involved more than one interests, i.e. ship and cargo, which constitutes a COMMON ADVENTURE.
GA SACRIFICE – per York Antwerp Rule 3 – Water damage to cargo during fire fighting (US$2 million)
GA Expenditure – per York Antwerp Rules: 6, 10 & 11 – involving salvage, port disbursements, cargo force discharge, port disbursements, crew wages and maintenance, fuels and stores.
Details of Ship and Cargo Values:-
Ship sound valuation taken at US$25 million, less damage at US$10 million, gives us a Ship’s Contributory Value of US$15 million.
Cargo and containers valued at US$100 million, out of which cargo sacrifice due to wet damage amounts to US$2 million. However, after taking into account made good in General Average, the Cargo’s Contributory Value remains at US$100 million.
Salvage (York Antwerp Rule 6)
Salvage signed on basis of LOF, with SCOPIC Clause invoked – total salvage remuneration US$12 million (of which US$8 million relates to containing oil leakages/pollution under SCOPIC). Therefore, US$4 million relates to successful refloating of ship and extinguishing of fire in cargo hold.
You will note that it is advantageous for Owners to sign salvage under LOF as the Contributory values of ship and cargo are US$15 million and US$100 million respectively, i.e. about 87% of the salvage is to be contributed by cargo interests. If on the other hand, the salvage was not LOF but on a lump-sum, no cure, no pay basis, imagine Owners will have to settle with the Salvage company concerned most of the salvage on behalf of cargo interests.
Declaration of General Average:-
Most hull policy nowadays is incorporated with a “Small GA” Clause. Therefore, for the purposes of this case study, we have taken that the “Small GA” Clause is limited to US$500,000.
Owners’ decision to declare General Average is likely based on the following factors:-
• Total Salvage amounts to US$4 million and together with GA expenditure, such as prolongation of voyage as occasioned by detention at the port of refuge and repair ports, estimated in total at US$4.5 million, exceeded the above “Small GA” Clause.
Declaration of General Average :-
• Cargo’s Contributory value is about 87%.
• Salvage on basis of LOF, so Salvage company, as the first lien, will collect salvage security from both ship and cargo, etc properties involved.
• If General Average not declared, Owners will lose out 87% of the General Average expenditure of US$500K (this is in addition to the salvage signed under LOF).
• If General Average declared, and should cargo alleged unseaworthiness of vessel, Owners are likely able to recover unpaid cargo’s proportion of General Average (and salvage) from Owners’ P & I Club.