Marcus & Millichap / IPA Multifamily Forum: San Francisco Bay Area Speaker Slide Compilation
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Transcript of Marcus & Millichap / IPA Multifamily Forum: San Francisco Bay Area Speaker Slide Compilation
9:30 AM – General Session
Game Changers: New Plans & Perspectives from Active
Developers
Next Level AmenitiesTrends in creative amenities:
• Outdoor theaters• Rooftop pool decks• Bike storage & workshops• Concierge services• Valet / House car• Pilates & Yoga studios• Bark parks• Pet wash stations• Retail / Mixed-use
Author: MVE + Partners
Author: MMC Research
BAY AREA HOME SALES ACTIVITY
Total Sales Average Longterm Home Sales Foreclosure Sales
120 28
Long-term annual average sales ~ 77,795
90 21
60 14
30 7
0 0
Bay
Area
Res
iden
tial S
ales
(000
s)Bay Area Foreclosure Sales (000s)
$5.00
$4.50
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
$2.502011
Class-A ApartmentEconomics
2012 2013
Market Rent PSF
2014 2015
— A l l - I n Cost Per Unit
$250,000 2016
• Apartment rents have increased 50%• All-in project costs have increased 100%• Actual return-on-cost has decreased from 6.5% to 5.0%
$550,000
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
Author: Sares Regis Group Northern California
$600,000
10:25 AM – General Session
Go Long: Value-Add, Repositioning and Long-Term Value Strategies for Late in
the Cycle
What’s not to like?
California Population GrowthThe Trend is Your Friend.
Author: Al Pace
What’s not to like?
1846 1850 1900 2000 2015 -
5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 45,000,000
10,000 94,000 1,500,000
34,000,000 39,000,000
Population, State of California Since 1846
*non-indigenous peoples
*
Author: Acacia Capital
12/6
/200
24/
24/2
003
1/9/
2004
4/30
/200
49/
11/2
004
10/1
9/20
045/
26/2
005
9/1/
2005
4/3/
2006
6/29
/200
62/
1/20
073/
13/2
007
7/30
/200
79/
12/2
007
12/1
4/20
073/
20/2
008
6/25
/201
06/
29/2
010
10/2
8/20
104/
22/2
011
6/7/
2011
7/12
/201
19/
22/2
011
11/1
0/20
1111
/30/
2011
6/28
/201
28/
1/20
1212
/20/
2012
7/31
/201
312
/14/
2013
12/2
/201
47/
31/2
015
10/2
9/20
154/
19/2
016
10/3
1/20
16
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%Return on Cost vs. Debt Coupon
Return on Cost Debt Cost Spread Average Historical Spread
Bay Area Rent Growth Projections
Author: TruAmerica Multifamily
Source 2017 2018 2019 3-Year Average Source 2017 2018 2019 3-Year AverageReis 2.40% 3.60% 4.60% 3.53% Reis 4.30% 3.50% 3.10% 3.63%Axiometrics 3.50% 3.40% 3.90% 3.60% Axiometrics 1.70% 4.10% 5.20% 3.67%Annual Average 2.95% 3.50% 4.25% 3.57% CBRE 3.60% 1.70% 0.20% 1.83%
Annual Average 3.20% 3.10% 2.83% 3.04%
North Bay South Bay
Source 2017 2018 2019 3-Year Average Source 2017 2018 2019 3-Year AverageReis 2.40% 2.60% 2.40% 2.47% Reis 4.30% 3.60% 2.90% 3.60%Axiometrics 2.30% 4.00% 4.70% 3.67% Axiometrics 2.80% 4.20% 5.50% 4.17%CBRE 1.90% 0.20% -1.50% 0.20% CBRE 0.90% -0.20% -3.30% -0.87%Annual Average 2.20% 2.27% 1.87% 2.11% Annual Average 2.67% 2.53% 1.70% 2.30%
East Bay Peninsula
11:45 AM – Concurrent Session – AIn It to Win It: Today’s Best Practices
for Acquisitions and Dispositions
Environmental Challenges & SolutionsChallenges:• Understand corporate risk tolerance• Vapor intrusion• Legacy pesticides in soil• Source property• Deed restrictions• Regulatory agency buy-in
Solutions:• Fail-safe remedies if feasible (e.g., podium construction)• Site planning with regard to contamination (e.g., strategic
placement of open spaces or parking)• Proactive remedies to protect long-term liability• Ownership that is a single entity & offers financial stability
Author: Michelle KingErler & Kalinowski, Inc.
Author: Jim Alexander
(1) Includes Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange County, CA.
Represents percentage of NOI.
93 Properties
22,407 Units
54 Properties
12,756 Units
37 Properties
7,096 Units30 Properties
7,588 Units
40 Properties
10,632 Units
47 Properties
15,637 Units
EQR Portfolio Characteristics
‒ 24/7 gateway cities
‒ Strong demand drivers
‒ Constrained supply characteristics
‒ Best long term value creation
EQR’s portfolio is focused in the six core, coastal markets
San Francisco
Southern California (1) Washington, D.C.
New York
Seattle Boston8%
20%
25%
17%
19%
11%
San Francisco Attributes
‒ Median income 1.5x national average
‒ Home price to income ratio 11.7x
‒ Despite increased supply, structurally under housed
Author: Marshall Boyd
PROMETHEUS REAL ESTATE GROUP, INC.
Author: John Millham
Is now the right time to start a new multifamily development in the SF Bay Area:YES! Market rents are up 45%-55% since the bottom of the market in 2010 and employment growth still exists!BUT:1. Hard Costs have increased 100%.2. Land Prices are up 75% - 100%.3. City Fees/Exactions are up anywhere from 50% - 150%.4. Entitlement Process Longer with increased risk to success.5. Construction Financing is increasingly difficult to procure (lower
proceeds/wider spreads).6. General Contractor/Subcontractor execution spotty. Huge labor issue.7. Rents moderating to declining –market shift, time of year, election?8. Overall ROC’s down 100-125 basis points.Answer: DEPENDS! Need a very long term view and “must have” sites
11:45 AM – Concurrent Session – BNext Gen Spaces &
Neighborhoods: Breaking the Mold through Design & Construction
Residents Experience• Renters by Choice - Mobility• Arrival Sequence - Leasing as a Secondary Activity
• First Impression - Experience + Materiality• Community + Individuality• Creative Opportunities - Instagram Moments
• Tell a Story - Locavore, Local Connection• Wellness Focused
• Curated Activities• Active Lifestyle
• Resist the Need to Include EVERYTHING• Sense of “HOME” - Simple Retreat
Author: Teresa Ruiz/SB Architects
Example 1: Construction Cost Breakdown1699 Mark Street, San Francisco – Mid-Market Apartment ProjectTotal Buildable Square Footage: 126,767 sfLand Acquisition Cost: Labor Cost: $350 / sfMaterials Cost: $125 / sfFinancing Cost: $50 / sfOthers Costs: $175 / sfTotal Costs (excluding land): $700 / sfExpected Disposition Pricing: $1,000 / sf
Author: Tony Craig
Flight to affordability
Author: Curtis Development
Sacramento Housing Boosted by Bay Area Refugees Source:
The Sunset District is San Francisco's hottest neighborhood Source: CurbedSF
Millennials Driving Design
Author: Ivy Greaner, FivePoint
13.4%
30.1%
20.0%
24.9%
11.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
GenZ Millennial GenX Baby Boomer Traditionals
POPULATION BY GENERATION
Source: Real Estate Economics, San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA MD, Q2 2016
Millennials (18-34) are redefining the ”American Dream” Purchasing fewer homes // renting Flexibility of being transient or living in areas with great
amenities Entrepreneurial spirit changing the workforce
Spruce Renovation
Author: Mary Nitschke, Prometheus
Author:
• Efficient Schedule (Multi-tasking)• Less Waste / Greener Construction Process / Less Site
Disturbance • Consistent/ Qualified / Permanent / Offsite Workforce• Creates increase in depth of Qualified Subcontractors
Modular EfficiencyMODUAR CONSTRUCTION
Design & Engineering
Permits & Approvals
Site Development & Foundations/Podium
Install & Site Restoration TIME SAVINGS REALIZED
SITE BUILT CONSTRUCTION
Design & Engineering
Permits & Approvals
Site Development & Foundations/Podium
Conventional Construction
SiteRestoration
Modular Production/Delivery
12:35 PM – Concurrent Session – AThe Cash Melting Pot: The Changing
Debt and Equity Landscape
Author: Scott Croul
Lone Oak Fund Recent TransactionsBroken Condo Project (Refinance) - $4,630,000 1st Trust Deed
- Location: Rancho Palos Verdes, California- Collateral: 11 luxury condominium units in a 28-unit
building- Purpose of Loan: Pay off maturing construction loan- Exit Strategy: Sale of units (partial releases were provided)
Value-Add Industrial (Acquisition) - $7,500,000 1st Trust Deed- Location: Oakland, California- Collateral: 277,000 sq. ft. industrial building on 5 acre lot- Purpose of Loan: Acquire 40% occupied industrial building- Exit Strategy: Pay off once property is leased up
1031 Exchange – Retail Cross (Acquisition) - $6,000,000 1st Trust Deed
- Location: San Carlos, California- Collateral: (3) separate retail properties in Downtown area- Purpose of Loan: Complete 1031 Exchange (time sensitive)- Exit Strategy: Bank loan
All of these loans were priced at 7.90% interest only. No prepayment penalty. Non-recourse.
Author: Alexa Mizrahi
Recent Financings$4,000,000 Refi, Stabilized – Antioch Retail CenterTerm: 25 year loan due in 10 years Property’s grocery tenant had a lease expiring within 12 months. Due to strong sponsor, Luther Burbank offered non-recourse financing.
$4,700,000 Refi, Recently Stabilized and Improved Multifamily Rental in HealdsburgTerm: 30 years fixed for 5 yearsRecently completed value add project required current rent roll for income qualification. Strong sponsorship and strong market allowed this project to be approved.
$3,900,000 Value Add Refi for Mixed-Use Project in San FranciscoTerm: 30 years fixed for 5 yearsThis loan has an initial advance of $2,500,000 with a final disbursement once performance is achieved.
Author: Jim Wiegandt
12:35 PM – Concurrent Session – BFrom High Tech to High
Value: Innovations in Multifamily Management
Author: Chris Moreno, Luxer One
TRAVEL/HOSPITALITY
DELIVERY/LOGISTICS
FOOD/BEVERAGE
HOME AMENITIES HEALTH/BEAUTY
The ‘Uber’ service economy: On-Demand Mobile Services
DINING/DRINKSTRANSPORTATION
Author: Chris Moreno, Luxer One
Author: Chris Moreno, Luxer One
1 property948 units
3,308 deliveries in October 2016275 hours saved for staff
Cellular Communication for
UL Listed Digital Fire Alarm Control Panels
Cost For Each Cellular Receiver$550 X 9 fire panels =$4,950 Additional monthly monitoring cost =$13 (Cellular fee per line)
$117 a month (total for all receivers)Replace POD’s Lines
Eliminates 18 “POD’s” lines @ $50 (includes tax) each line = $900 a month Each fire panel has two POD’s lines
10 year estimated savings -$98KPays for its self in 6 months
Author: Karen Bowman
RE Tech For The Rest of Us
Author: Heath Silverman
Management
Leasing
Rehab and Maintenanc
e
Acquisition
Back OfficeProductivity
Accounting
Tech-Forward Managers Software
Market Comps Listing Syndication
On-Demand
Crowdfunding
Contractor Search
Discovery
Individual InvestorsPartnershipLLCREIT & CorpsOther Source: NMHC tabulations
of 2012 Rental Housing Finance SurveyU.S. Bureau of the Census
Majority of Rental Property Owners are Small-Scale Investors
71%
US Apartment Ownership
On-Demand Service is the Winning TrendLarge complexes attempt to attract renters with costly amenities while the real value lies in on-demand resident services:1. Traditional managers spend 45% of revenue on labor.
Powerful automation w/ new tech dramatically reduces labor costs.
2. Self-service showings w/smart-locks reduces vacancy and leasing agent costs by 50% or more.
3. 3D Imaging and Telepresence robots enable remote showings—especially useful for growing international market.
4. 24/7 resident concierge at 10x lower cost with offshore team.
Author: Greg Toschi, Onerent
Amenities not as cool as we thought? 2,000 current Onerent residents say amenities were the least impactful reason for renting
their current home.