March 15, 2016 …...oil. Crude oil prices rose 3.8 percent in February, averaging $31.1/bbl, after...
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1 March 15, 2016 www.imf.org/commodities [email protected] Commodity prices rebound 2.0 percent in February, the first increase in nine months, with gains in all main groups. Metals prices modestly increased on momentary stabilized global markets. Agricultural prices registered another marginal increase, with El Nino event still pushing up some food prices – like palm oil. Crude oil prices rose 3.8 percent in February, averaging $31.1/bbl, after three consecutive months of losses. Recent discussions among major oil producers (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Qatar) regarding a potential production freeze, helped oil prices to rebound to some extent. The increase was limited by strong supply from OPEC members and subdued aggregate demand growth. The International Energy Agency expects global demand growth to slow from 1.8 mbd in 2015 to 1.2 mbd in 2016. Natural gas price in the U.S. fell by 13.9 percent in February, averaging $1.96/mmbtu, under pressures from high inventory levels and warmer than normal temperatures during the winter. Coal prices (Australia) increased by 2.2 percent in February, reversing losses from the previous month. Commodity Market Monthly Research Department, Commodities Unit 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Non-Energy Total Energy IMF Commodity Price Indices (2005 = 100) 20 40 60 80 100 120 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Dubai Brent WTI Crude Oil Prices ($/barrel) 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Metals Agriculture Energy IMF Commodity Price Indices (2005 = 100)
Transcript of March 15, 2016 …...oil. Crude oil prices rose 3.8 percent in February, averaging $31.1/bbl, after...
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March 15, 2016 www.imf.org/commodities [email protected]
Commodity prices rebound 2.0 percent in February, the first increase in nine months, with gains in all main groups. Metals prices modestly increased on momentary stabilized global markets. Agricultural prices registered another marginal increase, with El Nino event still pushing up some food prices – like palm oil.
Crude oil prices rose 3.8 percent in February, averaging $31.1/bbl, after three consecutive months of losses. Recent discussions among major oil producers (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Qatar) regarding a potential production freeze, helped oil prices to rebound to some extent. The increase was limited by strong supply from OPEC members and subdued aggregate demand growth. The International Energy Agency expects global demand growth to slow from 1.8 mbd in 2015 to 1.2 mbd in 2016.
Natural gas price in the U.S. fell by 13.9 percent in February, averaging $1.96/mmbtu, under pressures from high inventory levels and warmer than normal temperatures during the winter. Coal prices (Australia) increased by 2.2 percent in February, reversing losses from the previous month.
Commodity Market Monthly
Research Department, Commodities Unit
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Crude Oil Prices ($/barrel)
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Agriculture prices increased 0.2 percent in February; food and agricultural raw material prices are slightly up, while beverages prices fell 2 percent. Rice prices increased 4 percent in
response to lower than expected output from
Asia. Palm oil prices rose 12 percent as dry
weather, mainly due to El Nino event, continues
to affect production in Asia, especially in
Indonesia and Malaysia. Beef prices increased 8
percent on tight supplies from Australia and the
US. Swine prices sharply increased partly due
to stronger demand from China. Overall coffee
prices remained broadly unchanged; a marginal
decrease in robusta prices was offset by a 2
percent increase in arabica prices. Partly offsetting these increases, wheat and corn prices
fell 3 and 1 percent, respectively, on
comfortable supply, large inventories and good
prospects for the upcoming harvest. Soybean
prices decreased 1 percent amid strong supply.
Cotton prices dropped 3 percent on ample
stocks and sluggish demand. Sugar prices fell 7
percent, down for second consecutive month,
owing to better than expected crop conditions
in Brazil.
Metals prices rose by 5.0 percent in February, first increase in five months, boosted by production cuts and renewed demand, as well as rising oil prices. Iron ore increased by 12 percent, as Chinese steel mills restock ahead of the
summer construction season, while the long-term slowdown of Chinese demand has not changed. Tin and Zinc also surged by more than 10 percent in February. Aluminum modestly recovered by 3 percent, driven by a combination of lower China’s exports and production. Copper also registered a slight increase of 3 percent amid a weaker U.S. dollar and momentary stabilization in global markets. Nickel, however, continued to fall by 2 percent to the lowest since 2003, pressured by both weak demand and potential ease of the ban on nickel exports from Indonesia.
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Vegetable Oils & MealCerealsBeveragesMeatSeafood
IMF Commodity Price Indices(2005 = 100)
-20 -10 0 10 20
Natural Gas, USTea
Gasoline Sugar
Fish Meal Natural gas, EU
Fish (Salmon)Wheat Cotton
Uranium Nickel
Soybean Meal Cocoa
Coffee, Robustas Soybeans
Corn Sawnwood Hard
Poultry Lamb Hides
Shrimp Rapeseed Oil
Wool, Fine Orange
Groundnuts Coffee, Arabica
BarleySunflower Oil Coal, AustraliaWool, Coarse
Copper Rubber
AluminumOlive Oil Crude Oil
RiceBananas
Soybeans Oil Lead Beef
Iron OrePalm Oil
Zinc Tin
Swine
February Commodity Prices Changes(percent from previous month)
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Units 2013 2014 2015 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Jan-16 Feb-16
Food
Cereals
Wheat $/MT 265.8 242.5 185.6 205.0 196.3 178.8 162.3 164.6 159.3
Maize $/MT 259.0 192.9 169.8 174.2 168.4 169.4 167.1 161.0 159.7
Rice $/MT 518.8 426.5 380.0 406.6 381.8 374.0 357.7 359.5 373.3
Barley $/MT 206.4 146.1 127.9 132.2 128.1 127.9 123.2 118.0 120.1
Vegetable oils and protein meals
Soybeans $/MT 517.2 457.8 347.4 363.9 354.6 347.6 323.3 323.2 320.1
Soybean meal $/MT 477.3 467.0 352.7 372.7 348.0 369.3 320.8 297.2 291.4
Soybean oil $/MT 1011.1 812.7 672.2 696.4 715.4 638.3 638.6 659.9 686.9
Palm oil $/MT 764.2 739.4 565.1 627.9 599.9 514.6 518.0 531.6 595.9
Fish meal $/MT 1710.5 1921.5 1759.2 2031.9 1744.2 1558.9 1701.9 1555.3 1455.9
Sunflower Oil $/MT 1341.1 1080.3 1022.2 974.0 1062.3 1010.4 1042.1 1020.1 1039.6
Olive oil $/MT 3816.7 3911.8 4927.1 4568.3 4865.3 5616.4 4658.3 4395.3 4545.7
Groundnuts $/MT 2314.5 2148.3 1946.2 2016.8 2023.4 2012.9 1731.8 1800.5 1829.9
Rapeseed oil $/MT 1081.2 904.4 774.6 755.1 772.6 772.7 798.1 777.9 778.9
Meat
Beef cts/lb 183.6 224.1 200.5 216.6 202.9 206.3 176.2 159.1 171.3
Lamb cts/lb 106.7 130.6 107.9 122.5 112.4 101.3 95.3 95.5 95.5
Swine Meat cts/lb 86.5 102.8 67.9 65.5 71.9 73.8 60.5 54.3 62.9
Poultry cts/lb 103.8 110.1 114.7 114.0 115.6 115.5 113.6 112.5 112.1
Seafood
Fish $/kg 6.8 6.6 5.3 5.6 5.1 5.3 5.3 6.5 6.1
Shrimp $/kg 14.0 16.6 14.1 15.7 15.7 15.0 10.0 11.0 11.0
Sugar
Free market cts/lb 17.7 17.1 13.2 14.1 12.6 11.6 14.7 14.3 13.3
United States cts/lb 21.2 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.5 25.5 25.8 25.5
EU cts/lb 26.0 27.4 25.4 25.2 25.5 25.8 25.2 23.9 23.8
Bananas $/MT 926.4 931.9 958.7 974.8 978.4 948.9 932.7 1011.2 1052.4
Oranges $/MT 967.3 782.5 675.0 698.5 616.9 652.1 732.6 689.4 691.4
Beverages
Coffee
Other milds cts/lb 141.1 202.8 160.5 177.0 161.0 153.2 150.8 146.3 148.9
Robusta cts/lb 100.5 105.6 94.2 101.4 96.7 90.9 87.9 82.0 81.2
Cocoa Beans $/MT 2439.1 3062.8 3135.2 2918.5 3068.1 3252.8 3301.3 2952.4 2916.4
Tea cts/kg 266.0 237.9 340.4 291.2 320.1 387.2 363.0 319.8 287.3
Agricultural raw materials
Timber
Hardwood
Logs 1/ $/M3 305.4 282.0 246.0 249.9 245.4 243.6 245.2 251.8 259.3
Sawnwood 1/ $/M3 852.8 897.9 833.3 826.2 834.8 844.9 827.1 785.6 780.1
Softwood
Logs 1/ $/M3 164.5 174.3 162.0 169.8 159.1 159.8 159.3 167.4 167.4
Sawnwood 1/ $/M3 301.4 307.3 308.7 306.8 298.0 310.4 319.6 310.6 310.6
Cotton cts/lb 90.4 83.1 70.4 68.8 72.3 71.0 69.5 68.8 66.6
Wool
Fine cts/kg 1197.7 1074.4 1005.8 947.8 1079.7 999.7 995.8 1014.2 1017.1
Coarse cts/kg 1128.1 1030.4 922.8 887.7 962.7 942.0 898.9 930.9 957.3
Rubber cts/lb 126.8 88.8 70.7 78.6 81.2 66.1 57.0 55.3 57.0
Hides cts/lb 94.7 110.2 87.6 105.8 96.8 76.1 71.7 70.0 70.01/ Provisional.2/ Average Petroleum Spot Price (APSP). Average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate, equally weighted.
Table 1. Market Prices for Non-Fuel and Fuel Commodities
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Units 2013 2014 2015 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Jan-16 Feb-16
Metals
Copper $/MT 7331.5 6863.4 5510.5 5833.2 6056.6 5267.1 4884.9 4471.8 4598.6
Aluminum $/MT 1846.7 1867.4 1664.7 1802.1 1770.3 1592.4 1493.9 1481.1 1531.3
Iron Ore $/MT 135.4 96.8 55.2 62.3 57.9 54.4 46.2 41.3 46.2
Tin $/MT 22281.6 21898.9 16066.6 18370.0 15589.8 15229.5 15077.2 13808.1 15610.1
Nickel $/MT 15030.0 16893.4 11862.6 14392.8 13055.8 10578.9 9423.0 8507.3 8298.5
Zinc $/MT 1910.2 2161.0 1931.7 2079.8 2192.2 1842.8 1611.8 1520.4 1709.8
Lead $/MT 2139.7 2095.5 1787.8 1810.4 1942.2 1717.0 1681.7 1646.2 1765.8
Uranium $/lb 38.6 33.5 36.8 37.9 36.8 36.4 36.0 34.6 33.6
Energy
Spot Crude 2/ $/bbl 104.1 96.2 50.8 51.7 60.4 48.8 42.2 29.9 31.1
U.K. Brent $/bbl 108.8 98.9 52.4 54.0 62.1 50.0 43.4 30.8 33.2
Dubai $/bbl 105.4 96.7 51.2 52.5 61.4 49.9 41.2 27.2 29.6
West Texas Intermediate $/bbl 97.9 93.1 48.7 48.7 57.8 46.5 42.0 31.7 30.3
Natural Gas
Russian in Germany $/mmbtu 11.2 10.5 7.3 9.4 7.4 6.6 5.9 5.1 4.8
Indonesian in Japan (LNG) $/mmbtu 17.3 17.0 11.0 14.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 9.0 9.0
US, domestic market $/mmbtu 3.7 4.4 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.0
Coal
Australian, export markets $/MT 90.6 75.1 61.6 65.6 63.2 61.6 56.1 53.4 54.51/ Provisional.2/ Average Petroleum Spot Price (APSP). Average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate, equally weighted.
Table 1. Market Prices for Non-Fuel and Fuel Commodities (Continued)
(weights) 1/ 2013 2014 2015 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Jan-16 Feb-16
All Primary Commodities 2/ 100.0 183.3 171.8 111.2 117.6 122.4 107.5 97.2 83.2 84.8
Non-Fuel Commodities 36.9 169.0 162.3 133.9 142.4 138.6 131.1 123.5 121.3 123.0
Agriculture 26.2 163.3 161.5 137.1 144.4 139.9 135.2 128.7 128.4 128.7
Food 16.7 177.5 170.2 141.0 148.4 143.0 140.5 132.2 134.2 134.9
Cereals 3.6 218.2 180.2 149.0 159.1 152.5 146.1 138.2 136.9 135.6
Vegetable oils and protein meals 4.4 206.4 190.7 153.6 161.9 156.9 152.4 143.3 141.1 143.4
Meat 3.7 136.8 160.5 137.4 142.1 140.5 141.9 125.2 116.5 124.3
Seafood 3.2 160.1 162.0 131.7 139.8 131.6 132.5 123.0 148.2 142.0
Beverages 1.8 147.4 178.0 172.6 170.4 170.4 175.9 173.7 159.0 156.2
Agricultural raw materials 3/ 7.7 136.2 138.8 120.0 129.6 125.9 114.0 110.6 108.8 108.9
Timber 3.4 107.3 109.3 104.5 104.6 102.6 104.9 105.8 103.6 103.8
Metals 10.7 182.9 164.1 126.2 137.4 135.5 121.0 110.7 103.7 108.9
Edibles 4/ 18.5 174.6 171.0 144.1 150.6 145.7 144.0 136.3 136.6 137.0
Industrial Inputs 5/ 18.4 163.3 153.5 123.6 134.1 131.5 118.1 110.7 105.8 108.9
Energy 6/ 63.1 191.7 177.4 97.9 103.1 113.0 93.7 81.8 60.8 62.5
Petroleum 7/ 53.6 195.9 181.1 95.6 97.4 113.7 91.9 79.3 56.0 58.3
Natural Gas 6.9 164.9 159.9 106.8 136.9 102.4 97.5 90.6 81.1 77.8
Coal 2.6 176.8 149.1 121.3 129.7 125.4 120.1 110.0 105.3 107.7
3/ Includes Forestry Products.4/ Edibles comprised of Food and Beverages5/ Industrial (Non-Fuel) Inputs comprised of Agriculture and Metals6/ Includes Petroleum, Natural Gas and Coal7/ Average Petroleum Spot Price (APSP). Average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate, equally weighted.
Table 2. Indices of Market Prices for Non-Fuel and Fuel Commodities, 2012-2015(2005=100, in terms of U.S. dollars) 1/
1/ Weights based on 2002-2004 average world export earnings.2/ Non-Fuel Primary Commodities and Energy Index.
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Commodity Prices Movements
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WTI
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Sources: Energy Intelligence; Bloomberg , L.P.
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Commodity Prices Movements (Continued)
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Commodity Prices Movements (Continued)
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Commodity Prices Movements (Continued)
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Source: Meat & Livestock Australia.
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Commodity Prices Movements (Continued)Monthly (from 2005)
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Commodity Prices Movements (Continued)Monthly (from 2005)
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Commodity Prices Movements (Continued)
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