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Transcript of March 13, 2006 Health Care Provides Opportunity for Progressives January 24, 2007 SEIU/CAPAF Survey...
March 13, 2006
Health Care Provides Opportunity for Progressives
January 24, 2007
SEIU/CAPAF Survey of Six Senate States, Eight House Districts – 11/07
Democracy Corps National Survey – 5/07
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 2 |
Strong Base of Support for Reform
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Very Serious SeriousTotal
Serious
Rising health care costs 62 30 92
The federal deficit 51 32 83
Employers cutting back contributions for employees’ health insurance and pensions
46 38 84
Rising gasoline costs 45 33 78
The growing gap between the rich and everybody else 44 28 72
Job losses to China and India 39 36 75
The situation with home sales, foreclosures and house prices 38 37 75
High taxes 36 36 72
Stagnant wages and salaries and people squeezed by rising prices 33 33 66
Unemployment 21 36 57
For each issue I want you to tell me whether today you think it is a very serious problem, a serious problem, not too serious a problem, or not a problem at all in the current economy?
Rising health care costs most serious economic concern
*Note: Data from Democracy Corps poll conducted 9/16-9/18/07 of 1,000 likely voters nationwide.
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54
50
46
50
545352
56
62
48
35
45
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65
Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07
Rising health care costs is a very serious problem
Over 60% see health care costs as a very serious problem in the economy
I am going to read you a list of issues relating to the economy. For each issue I want you to tell me whether today you think it is a very serious problem, a serious problem, not too serious a problem, or not a problem at all in the current economy?
*Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several years.
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 5 |
6761 61 60 59
5462 64 63 61 61 58 55 52
6875 75
8181818475767982
7584 79
ME NH LA OR VA
CO
PA-10
OH-15
NC-8
NY-25
NV-3
FL-16
WA-8
CA-4
Strongly support Support
Do you support or oppose reforming our current health care system to provide affordable health coverage for all Americans?
Overwhelming Majorities Support Health Care for All
Senate House
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 6 |
Firm Supporters: Those who supported reforming our current health care system to provide affordable health coverage for all Americans “if it meant government taking a much larger role in our health care system” AND “that you would have to pay more in taxes.”
Conditional Supporters: Those who initially supported reform, but dropped their support in the face of greater government involvement OR higher taxes.
Firm Opponents: Those who opposed any reforms to current health care system.
Reform: Firm Supporters vs. Conditional Supporters
Would you support or oppose reforming our current health care system to provide affordable health coverage for all Americans… if it meant government taking a much larger role in our health care system… and if it meant that you would have to pay more in taxes?
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 7 |
44
35
17
Firm Support Conditional Support Firm Oppose
Firm Support Conditional Support Firm Oppose
Senate: Supporters Offer Progressives an Opportunity Would you support or oppose reforming our current health care system to provide affordable health coverage for all Americans if it meant government taking a much larger role in our health care system [and] if it meant that you would have to pay more in taxes?
*Note: Data from combined run of six Senate seats.
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 8 |
29
15
Favor Oppose
Strongly favor Somewhat favor
Strongly oppose Somewhat oppose
Strong Support For Universal Coverage With Mandates
+4368
25
Let me tell you about a proposal to reform the health care system in this country. This plan would require businesses to either cover their employees or make a contribution to a pool that help fund health care coverage for the uninsured. It would require all Americans to get health insurance and provide subsidies for Americans who could not afford it. It would also make insurance more affordable by creating new tax credits, expanding Medicaid and taking steps to contain health care costs. Having heard this, do you favor or oppose this proposal?
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 9 |
2529
Favor Oppose
Strongly favor Somewhat favor
Strongly oppose Somewhat oppose
Voters Also Support a Single-Payer System
Let me tell you about a proposal to reform the health care system in this country. This plan would use what some people call a single-payer health care plan. Under this plan, you still would be able to see your own doctor, just like under Medicare, but the federal government would pay the health care costs for all Americans. This would require a significant tax increase, but all of your current health care costs and insurance premiums would be covered by the government. Having heard this, do you favor or oppose this proposal?
+1455
41
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 10 |
But Split When Read Attack On Single-Payer
Statement 2: We need to make changes to our health care
system, but we cannot put it in the hands of the government. While health care accounts for 15 percent of our economy, a
government takeover is a radical move that will reduce
quality of care and eliminate a patient’s choice of doctor.
Statement 1: Now is the time for single payer health insurance that
is funded and administered by the U.S. government. This
Canadian-style system would guarantee affordable health care coverage for all Americans and
reduce costs by streamlining the administration of health care.
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right:
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 11 |
29
35
Time for Single Payer Can't Put Health Care in Hands of Gov't
But Split When Read Attack On Single-Payer
Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right:
-3
4649
*Note: Data from Democracy Corps national survey.
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 12 |
Democrats Win Health Care Debate Big
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 13 |
A Democratic plan that would guarantee affordable health insurance for all Americans. This plan would lower costs throughout the system, and allow people to choose between their current coverage or several private and public insurance options. Critics say this plan will cost too much and lead to higher taxes and government-run health care.
A Republican plan that would offer people tax credits and savings accounts to purchase private insurance and lower their costs in the private market. This plan would not require more government involvement in health care. Critics say this plan will leave millions of people without coverage or at risk of losing it and will only help wealthier Americans.
Democratic and Republican Approaches To Health Care
After hearing elements of both plans, which health care plan do you support more:
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 14 | 40
38
34
35
33
29
52
54
56
57
57
62
Lousiana
Colorado
Oregon
New Hampshire
Virginia
Maine
Republican Plan Democratic Plan
After hearing elements of both plans, which health care plan do you support more:
Senate: Democratic Plan Preferred in Key Races
+33
Net
+24
+22
+17
+12
+22
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 15 |
44
38
36
34
29
46
54
55
55
62
CA-04
WA-8
FL-16
OH-15
NC-8
Republican Plan Democratic Plan
After hearing elements of both plans, which health care plan do you support more:
House: Democratic Plan Preferred in Key Races
+33
Net
+21
+19
+16
+2
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 16 |
Cost and Choice Top List of Health Care Concerns and Values
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 17 |
Costs: Health care costs are too high for American Families
Too Many Without Coverage: There are too many people without health coverage
Insurance Companies: Insurance companies have too much red tape and often deny necessary care
Malpractice Lawsuits: Malpractice lawsuits are putting doctors out of business
Government Involvement: There is too much government involvement in health care
Losing Coverage: It is too easy to lose your coverage at any time
Problems With The Current System
Thinking again about the American health care system, which of the following is the ONE biggest problem with the current system? (Combined Percent Responding 1st or 2nd choice)
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 18 | 28
31
24
41
51
17
21
34
46
55
8
10
53
40
65
Governmentinvolvement
Malpracticelawsuits
Too many withoutcoverage
Insurancecompanies
Costs too high
Republicans Independents Democrats
Thinking again about the American health care system, which of the following is the ONE biggest problem with the current system? (Combined Percent Responding 1st or 2nd choice)
Senate: The Problem: Cost, Then Insurance Companies and Coverage
*Note: Data from combined run of six Senate seats.
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 19 |
Fundamental Right: Healthcare is a fundamental right – every American should be guaranteed coverage that can never be taken away
Choice of Doctors: Every American should have a choice of doctors and hospitals
Shared Responsibility: Individuals, businesses and government have a shared responsibility for covering health care costs
Should be Private: America’s health care system should be private and market-driven, not government run
Business Not Hurt: American businesses should not be hurt by health care costs
Values To Guide Reform
Thinking about health care reform, which ONE of the following values is the most important in guiding health care reform. (Combined Percent Responding 1st or 2nd choice)
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 20 |
6
52
20
18
33
2
24
25
26
18
21
25
12
35
0 20 40 60
RepInd
DemRepInd
DemRepInd
DemRepInd
DemRepInd
Dem
Thinking about health care reform, which ONE of the following values is the most important in guiding health care reform. (Combined Percent Responding 1st or 2nd choice)
Senate: Health Care Values by Party: Choice is Key
Fundamental Right
Choice of Doctors
Shared Responsibility
Should be Private
Business Not Hurt
*Note: Data from combined run of six Senate seats.
5955
5339
4743
6943
21
2749
1214
19
12
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 21 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
21
Lowering health care costs
Knowing I will always have health care coverage
Maintaining choices and seeing my own doctor
+32
Security of Coverage Most Important to Personal Priorities
+19
Improving quality
+17
*Note: Data from Democracy Corps national survey.
Thinking about your own health care priorities, which is more important to you?
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 22 |
Democratic Elements Popular
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 23 |
Strongly Support
Total Support
Require insurance companies to offer coverage at a fair price, regardless of age, medical history, or pre-existing condition
63 84
Give all Americans a choice of keeping what they have now or joining a national insurance pool that offers a choice of private and public plans, including the same options that Members of Congress receive
44 75
Provide refundable tax credits to ensure that no one pays more than 5 to 7 percent of their income on health insurance
43 75
Expand Medicaid and the State Children's Health Insurance Plan to cover all low-income Americans
43 70
Require all businesses to provide health care for their employees or contribute to a fund to help pay for their coverage
42 70
Give all Americans a choice of keeping what they have now or joining a national insurance pool that offers a choice of private and public plans, including a plan like Medicare
40 73
Now I'd like to read you some elements from a health care plan proposed by the Democrats in Congress. Please tell me if you support or oppose each of these elements
House: Key Elements of Democratic Plan
*Note: Data from combined run of eight House seats.
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 24 |
Strongly Support
Total Support
Provide tax credits for lower income families to help them afford coverage
48 79
Reform malpractice laws to rein in frivolous lawsuits against doctors 46 73
Expand the use of Health Savings Accounts that allow families to set aside some money to pay health expenses tax-free
44 74
Deregulate insurance markets by allowing people to shop for insurance across state lines
42 74
Provide families up to a 15,000 dollar tax deduction to help them afford coverage
38 71
Offer block grants to states to encourage them to develop their own innovative solutions
21 57
Now I'd like to read you some elements from a health care plan proposed by the Republicans in Congress. Please tell me if you support or oppose each of these elements
House: Republican Elements
*Note: Data from combined run of eight House seats.
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 25 |
Democratic Messages Generally Outperform GOP Messages
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 26 |
Security: In the current system it is too easy to lose your coverage at any time. Under our plan, families will have the security of knowing that if they become ill or lose their jobs they will never lose their coverage
Discrimination: Under the current system, Americans are at the mercy of insurance companies. Our plan gives the power back to the American people and prohibits insurance companies from discriminating and denying coverage.
Universal Coverage: 47 million Americans lack health insurance. We have a moral obligation to change that an our plan does. We will make sure every man, woman and child has coverage they can afford.
Bureaucracy/Choice: Our plan build on the private system we now have. It preserves full choice of your plan and your doctor and it does so without creating any new government bureaucracy.
Top 4 Democratic Messages
Let me read you some statements Democrats in Congress make in support of their health care plan. Please tell me if each statement would make you more or less likely to support the Democratic plan. (Messages paraphrased)
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 27 |
Tort Reform: The explosion of frivolous lawsuits forces doctors to practice defensive medicine and drives up cost. By ending lawsuit abuse we will bring the cost of medicine down and let doctors get back to work.
Affordability: Under our plan, if your family buys its own insurance you can deduct $15,000 from your taxes. This will mean real financial relief and make health insurance more affordable for American families.
Individual Choice: It’s your health, you should make your own decisions. Our plan empowers Americans to make their own choices to families can purchase as much or as little private insurance as they need.
Markets: Our plan promotes a private system. By empowering million of Americans to make their own decisions, the free market will accomplish what the government can’t – lower costs and higher quality.
Republican Messages
Let me read you some statements Republicans in Congress make in support of their health care plan. Please tell me if each statement would make you more or less likely to support the Republican plan. (Messages paraphrased)
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 28 |
60
61
62
66
29
41
36
43
55
23
28
50
57
45
32
23
1500% 3500% 5500% 7500%
Democratic Messages - Much/Smwht Democratic Messages - MuchRepublican Messages - Much/Smwht Republican Messages - Much
House: Democratic Messages Resonating
Dem
ocra
tic
Mes
sage
s
Discrimination
Security
Markets
Bureaucracy/Choice
Universal Coverage
Tort Reform
Affordability
Individual Choice
Rep
ublic
an
Mes
sage
s
Let me read you some statements Democrats/Republicans in Congress make in support of their health care plan. Please tell me if each statement would make you more or less likely to support the Democratic plan. (Percent Responding Much/Somewhat More Likely)
*Note: Data from combined run of eight House seats.
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 29 |
Dem Attacks Perform Well. GOP Immigration Attack Potent, Must Be Addressed
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 30 |
Doesn’t Fix The Problem: The Republican plan doesn't actually fix the problem. It won't provide coverage for the 47 million Americans without insurance and it won't reduce costs for the average American. The only thing it does is give big tax shelters to the very wealthy .
Helps The Wrong People: The Republican plan will be great for the healthiest and wealthiest Americans, but it will leave most Americans in dire straits. Most Americans would see few benefits from the Republicans' tax incentives, and those who need the most help affording coverage could see the few option they have now disappear.
Greed and Risk: The Republican plan would create an every-man-for-himself system dominated by profit and greed. It will leave you at the mercy of big insurance companies, who will favor the wealthy and healthy over the middle-class and those most in need of care
In the Pocket of Insurance Companies: The Republicans have taken millions of dollars from the big insurance companies. When they were in charge of Congress and the White House they did nothing to fix the system and now they are trying to stop meaningful reform in order to protect insurance company profits
Top 4 Democratic Health Care Attacks
Let me read you some criticisms some people make about the Republicans' health care plan. Please tell me whether these statements raise very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts or no real doubts in your own mind about the Republican candidate's plan.
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 31 |
Immigration: The Democrats want to expand government health insurance to everyone, including illegal immigrants and their families. Their plan would raise your taxes to help pay for a new benefit for those in this country illegally
Tax and Spend: The Democrats' plan will cost over 100 billion a year. They admit that, to pay for it, they will raise taxes. This means you will end up paying more, not less, for health care
Government Run: The Democrats want Washington bureaucrats to run our health care system. They'd put the people who managed Katrina and Walter Reed in charge of your health care.
Socialism: The Democrats don't believe in free markets or the American people. Instead, they believe in a government-run socialist system that promotes "one-size-fits all" health care, waiting lists like they have in France, and a destruction of private medicine
Top 4 Republican Health Care Attacks
Let me read you some criticisms some people make about the Democrats’ health care plan. Please tell me whether these statements raise very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts or no real doubts in your own mind about the Democratic candidate's plan.
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 32 |
Debate Favors Democrats
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 33 |
Vertical Generic
4648
4441
Initial Final
Democrat Republican
Question wording text goes in a box like this
Net: +2 Net: +7
House: Marginal Vote Shift Towards Democrats
Let me ask you again, thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in 2008, if the election for Congress were held today, would you be voting for (Democratic Candidate) or (Republican Candidate)?
Overall Vulnerable/Winnables*Note: Data from combined run of eight House districts. For each state, where each party’s candidate has already been clearly determined, that candidate’s name was inserted. Where the candidate has not been clearly determined, “Democratic candidate” or “Republican candidate” was inserted instead.
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 34 |
Conclusions
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 35 |
Democrats Poised To Formulate Dominant Position…
Strong base of support for comprehensive reform -- health care for all
Democrats dominate big picture debate -- solving the big problems (cost, insurance companies and lost coverage)
Poised to win values debate too – fundamental right, choice and shared responsibility
Most Democratic proposals, messages are powerful
Offset Republican attacks on choice, tax and immigration.
Engaging in debate moves electorate
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Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 36 |
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