March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) Import.

March 11, 2011

RPG Meeting

Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) Import

2 March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting

Lower Rio Grande Valley interface

RIOHND 6

EDNBRG 6

LAPALM 6

R A C H A L 4

E D N B R G 4

A R M S T N G 4

R A Y V I L E 4

R I O H N D 4

R A Y M O N D V L T P 8

Z A P A T A 4

M E C L O P N 4

F A L C O N 4

R O M A T P 4

R O M A 4

G A R Z A 4

B A T E S 4

P A L M V W 4

F R O N T

E R A Y M N D V L S B 8

L A S A R A S U B 8

M V G N # 3

M V G N # 1

M V G N # 2

L A P A L M 4

H A I N E D R 4

L O M A A L T A

M I L . H W Y 4

P . I S A B L 4

R N G R V I L L E S B 8

H A R L I N S W

C A R B - V L 4

T I T A N

C A U S W A Y 4

S . P A D R E 4

L A P A L M 2

W E S M E R 4

H A R L I N S W

H I W A Y 5 1 1 S U B 8

W E S U N T 4

L A S M I L P A S S B 8

C O F E P R T 4C N T R L A V E S U B 8

E R I O H O N D O S B 8

S M C A L N 4

W M C A L N 4

H . A C R E S 4

N M C A L N 4

S H L N D 4

P O L K 4

M C C O L L 4

P H A R R 4

P H A R R S U B 8

P A L M H U R S T S B 8

A L B E R T A R D S B 8

S E E D N B 4

H E C 4

W E D I N B U R G S B 8

V A L V E R D E S U B 8

D O E D Y N S U B 8

W E S L C S W 4

H E C B 4

A D E R H O L D S U B 8

A L T O N S U B 8

E L S A 4

G A N D Y S U B 8

W E S L A C O S U B 8

H E I D L B R G S U B 8

B U R N S S U B 8

B A T E S 2

G A R Z A 2

F R T T S 0 0 1

F R T T S 1 0 1F R T T S 2 0 1

L A P A L S T R

R A Y V I L E 2

C O N T I N L 2

R G C T Y 2

R I O R I C O 2

R N G R V L E 2

F A Y S V I L L E S B 9

M C C O O K N O 1 S B 9M C C O O K N O 2 S B 9

R A Y V L 1 - 2

H G N - 1 2

W H G N 2

H A R R I S N 2

S B E N I T O 2

P W R P L T 6 9

B R W N S W 2

B R W N C Y 2

LHEDM

LHEDL

LHRHM

LHRHL

M I L H D U M

YTURRIASUB8

S L U T A L R 4

8383

8318

8317

8 8 9 6

8 3 8 0

8 8 9 9

8 3 0 2

8 3 1 9

8 7 9 0

8 2 9 9

8 9 5 7

8 3 9 5

8 7 9 5

8 7 9 6

8 3 9 9

8 3 9 2

8 3 8 7

8 9 8 0

8 7 0 5

8 7 0 4

8 9 7 1

8 9 6 98 9 7 0

8 3 1 4

5 9 6 2

8 3 3 9

8 3 3 8

8 7 4 7

8 3 3 7

5 9 6 3

8 7 4 4

8 3 3 5

8 3 1 0

8 3 4 7

8 3 2 5

8 7 6 7

8 3 4 8

8 7 5 8

8 9 1 4

8 7 6 6

8 7 6 4

8 3 7 1

8 3 6 7

8 7 6 0

8 3 6 8

8 3 9 1

8 3 7 3

8 9 0 8

8 3 7 2

8 7 6 2

8 7 7 4

8 7 5 9

8 3 7 4

8 9 6 3

8 7 7 1

8 7 6 9

8 7 5 3

8 3 5 4

8 3 5 6

8 7 5 4

8 7 7 28 3 6 0

8 7 5 5

8 7 6 8

8 7 6 5

8 3 9 0

8 3 9 7

8 3 0 0

8 7 9 9

8 7 5 1

8 7 4 8

8 7 8 6

8 7 8 38 7 8 5

8 7 0 0

8 3 2 1

8 3 2 0

8 7 1 0

5 9 3 0

8901

8905

8903

8902

5 9 6 4

8 7 0 2

8 8 2 1

M E R E T T S U B 8

8 7 5 2

P A L O A L T O

5 9 6 5

RIOHNSTR

M V G N # 1

M V G N # 2 M V G N # 3

E D N B R S T R8 3 8 4

E D 1 T E R T8 3 4 1

L P 3 T E R T

8 3 2 8

M I L H W Y S8 0 0 0 3

S L U B E N T 4

8 8 2 2

M I S S I O N

8 0 1 2 1

B A T # 1

B A T # 2

F A L C O N H Y D R O 2

F A L C O N H Y D R O 3 F A L C O N H Y D R O 1

F G N T S 2 0 1F G N T S 1 0 1

F G N T S 0 0 1

H E C N 1

H E C N 2H E C N 3

R H 1 T E R T

S U N C H S E 4

8 9 1 7

8 3 5 9

S S . R O S A

R I O H N S T R

A I R P O R T5 9 4 6 0

F I L T E R _ P

5 9 4 2 0

P R I C E _ R D

5 9 4 1 0

F M _ 8 0 2

5 9 4 0 0M I D T O W N

5 9 4 9 0

F A L C O N S S

G A R C E N 4

8 9 2 3

H I L I N E S U B 8

8 7 7 8

P L M H S T T 2

K E Y S S 4

P A L M H S T 4

A L A M O

M O O R E F

P L M H S T T 1

N _ M E R C E D

G O O D W I N 4

L A G R U L A 4

R H 2 T E R T

C I T R U S C Y

R G C T Y 4

S L U R R 4

8 3 2 7

8 3 2 2

8 3 2 3

L A U R E L E S S U B 8

N W E S L A C O

P W R P L A N T

8 7 6 3

M H S T C O M

E D N B R G 2

Z A P A T A

8 3 3 1

8 3 3 2

8 9 0 6

S T E W A R T 4

8 9 5 1

S T E W A R T 2

8 9 4 9

8 0 1 1 7

8 0 1 2 3

8 7 7 3

8 0 1 0 7

8 0 1 0 8

8 0 1 1 8

8 3 7 7

S I X T H _ S T

5 9 4 8 0

5 9 3 0 0

8 3 5 7

8 3 5 8

8 0 1 5 5

H I D A L G O 4

8 5 0 0 6

S O U T H _ P L5 9 5 0 0

5 9 4 6

A I R P O R T 6 9

W A T E R P R T

5 9 4 5 0

L O M A _ 6 9

5 9 4 3

U N I O N _ C A

5 9 4 4

0 . 0 M v a r

- 4 0 M v a r

ZAPATA

JIM HOGGBROOKS KENEDY

STARR

HIDALGO

WILLACY

CAMERON

1

5

2

34

8336

8326

8329

80148

AJ O7A

80076

ZORI LLO7A

80071

SARI TA7A80171

PENASCAL7A

80178

GULFWI ND7A

80078

Valley Interface

1. North Edinburg - Lon Hill 345 kV 2. Ajo – Rio Hondo 345 kV3. Raymond 2 – MV Yutt 138 kV4. North Edinburg - Rachal 138 kV5. Roma Switch – Falcon Switch 138 kV


Existing LRGV System

• The AEP-TCC, Sharyland Utilities, Magic Valley Electric Cooperative (MVEC) and Public Utilities Board of Brownsville (PUB) transmission system currently serve approximately 2,200 MW of summer peak demand in the LRGV area.

• There are three combined-cycle generating stations in the LRGV with a combined capability of 1,592 MW.

• Additionally PUB has 4 units totaling approximately 120 MW on the eastern side of the LRGV.


LRGV System Load Growth

• The McAllen-Edinburg-Mission and Brownsville-Harlingen-San Benito areas are has grown significantly in the past few years (15 year average annual MW growth, based on the summer peaks is ~ 63 MW* or ~ 4.3%*).

• Extremely cold weather can result in a winter peak demand to significantly exceed the forecast and the summer peak levels.

• Extreme cold weather on February 3, 2011 has set an all-time new record peak of approximately 2,734 MW.

• Historical data (by AEP) indicates that in the past 15 years the winter peak demand has exceeded the summer peak four times (1997, 2007, 2010 & 2011)

* excluding PUB area


Actual Summer and Winter Peak for LRGV for past 15 years


Actual Summer and Winter Peak for LRGV since 2007

2,162

1,9021,826

2,378

2,734*

2,056 2,0952,185 2,241

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

2,750

3,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Winter Peak MW

Summer Peak MW

*Estimate of PUB Silas Ray generation is included.


LRGV Winter Peak & Temperature correlation

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Dai

ly P

eak

(MW

)

Daily Minimum Temperature (Degrees)

Valley - Winter Daily Peak & Temperature(no weekends or holidays)

2010 Winter

2011 Winter


Summer Peak & Temperature correlation


SSWG Planning Case - LRGV Area Summary

Valley Area Load (MW)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Winter Peak – 2010/2011 SSWG

model 1806 1733

Summer Peak - 2010 5YTP model 2214 2295 2353 2426 2495

Units

Summer Peak Max. Capacity

(MW)

Winter Peak Max. Capacity

(MW)

Frontera 1 146.5 154.2

Frontera 2 147.9 150

Frontera 3 173 170

Hidalgo 1 144 167

Hidalgo 2 144 164

Hidalgo 3 171 171

Magic Valley 1 207 250

Magic Valley 2 216.7 245

Magic Valley 3 242 259

Silas Ray 10 47 46

Silas Ray 5 15 17

Silas Ray 6 19.3 17

Silas Ray 9 38 45.7

Total Capacity 1711 1810


LRGV Power Flow Analysis

• The power flow analysis indicates the limiting contingency is the loss of a 345 kV transmission line, with the largest LRGV generation station out of service (all units @ combined cycle facility).

• The above NERC category C contingency falls with in the ERCOT planning criteria section 5.1.4 “In the case of a Combined Cycle Facility, a “single generating unit” experiencing a forced outage shall be defined as the entire train unless the combustion turbine and the steam turbine can operate separately”.

• Based on the 5YTP models the worst contingency results in the overload of the remaining 345 kV transmission line in 2014 summer peak condition at load level of 2,426 MW.


2015 Summer Peak Power Flow : Base Case

RIOHND 6

EDNBRG 6

LAPALM 6

R A C H A L 4

E D N B R G 4

ARMSTNG4

R A Y V I L E 4

R I O H N D 4


R A N D A D O 4

M E C L O P N 4

F A L C O N 4

R O M A T P 4

R O M A 4

G A R Z A 4

B A T E S 4

P A L M V W 4

F R O N T


L A S A R A S U B 8

M V G N # 3

M V G N # 1

M V G N # 2

L A P A L M 4

H A I N E D R 4

L O M A A L T A

M I L . H W Y 4

P . I S A B L 4


H A R L I N S W

C A R B - V L 4

T I T A N

C A U S W A Y 4

S . P A D R E 4

L A P A L M 2

W E S M E R 4

H A R L I N S W

H I W A Y 5 1 1 S U B 8

W E S U N T 4


C O F E P R T 4

C N T R L A V E S U B 8


S M C A L N 4

W M C A L N 4

H . A C R E S 4

N M C A L N 4

S H L N D 4

P O L K 4

M C C O L L 4

P H A R R 4

P H A R R S U B 8



S E E D N B 4

H E C 4



D O E D Y N S U B 8

W E S L C S W 4

H E C B 4


A L T O N S U B 8

E L S A 4

G A N D Y S U B 8



B U R N S S U B 8

B A T E S 2

G A R Z A 2

F R T T S 0 0 1

F R T T S 1 0 1 F R T T S 2 0 1

L A P A L S T R

R A Y V I L E 2

C O N T I N L 2

R G C T Y 2

R I O R I C O 2

R N G R V L E 2



R A Y V L 1 - 2

H G N - 1 2

W H G N 2

H A R R I S N 2

S B E N I T O 2

P W R P L T 6 9

B R W N S W 2

B R W N C Y 2

LHEDM

LHEDL

LHRHM

LHRHL

YTURRIASUB8

S L U T A L R 4

8383

8318

8317

8 8 9 6

8 3 8 0

8899

8 3 0 2

8 3 1 9

8 7 9 0

8 6 9 9

8 9 5 7

8 3 9 5

8 7 9 5

8 7 9 6

8 3 9 9

8 3 9 2

8 3 8 7

8 9 8 0

8 7 0 5

8 7 0 4

8 9 7 1

8 9 6 98 9 7 0

8 3 1 4

5 9 6 2

8 3 3 9

8 3 3 8

8 7 4 7

8 3 3 7

5 9 6 3

8 7 4 4

8 3 3 5

8 3 1 0

8 3 4 7

8 3 2 5

8 7 6 7

8 3 4 8

8 7 5 8

8 9 1 4

8 7 6 6

8 7 6 4

8 3 7 1

8 3 6 7

8 7 6 0

8 3 6 8

8 3 9 1

8 3 7 3

8 9 0 8

8 3 7 2

8 7 6 2

8 7 7 4

8 7 5 9

8 3 7 4

8 9 6 3

8 7 7 1

8 7 6 9

8 7 5 3

8 3 5 4

8 3 5 6

8 7 5 4

8 7 7 28 3 6 0

8 7 5 5

8 7 6 8

8 7 6 5

8 3 9 0

8 3 9 7

8 3 0 0

8 7 9 9

8 7 5 1

8 7 4 8

8 7 8 6

8 7 8 38 7 8 5

8 7 0 0

8 3 2 1

8 3 2 0

8 7 1 0

5 9 3 0

8901

8905

8903

8902

8702

8 8 2 1

M E R E T T S U B 8

8 7 5 2

P A L O A L T O

5 9 6 5

RIOHNSTR

M V G N # 1

M V G N # 2M V G N # 3

E D N B R S T R

8 3 8 4

E D 1 T E R T8 3 4 1

L P 3 T E R T8 3 2 8

M I L H W Y S8 0 0 0 3

S L U B E N T 4

8 8 2 2

M I S S I O N

8 0 1 2 1

B A T # 1

B A T # 2



F G N T S 2 0 1F G N T S 1 0 1

F G N T S 0 0 1

H E C N 1

H E C N 2 H E C N 3

R H 1 T E R T

S U N C H S E 48 9 1 7

8 3 5 9

S S . R O S A

R I O H N S T R

F I L T E R _ P

5 9 4 2 0

P R I C E _ R D5 9 4 1 0

F M _ 8 0 2

5 9 4 0 0M I D T O W N

5 9 4 9 0

F A L C O N S S

G A R C E N 4

8 9 2 3

H I L I N E S U B 8

8 7 7 8

P L M H S T T 2

K E Y S S 4

P A L M H S T 4

A L A M O

M O O R E F

P L M H S T T 1

N _ M E R C E D

G O O D W I N 4

L A G R U L A 4

R H 2 T E R T

C I T R U S C Y

R G C T Y 4

S L U R R 4

8 3 2 7

8 3 2 2

8 3 2 3


N W E S L A C O

P W R P L A N T

0 M W

0 M v a r

0 M W 0 M v a r

8 7 6 3

M H S T C O M

E D N B R G 2

0 M W 1 1 1 M v a r

8 3 3 1

8 3 3 2

0 M W 0 M v a r

0 M W 0 M v a r

0 M W 0 M v a r

0 M W 0 M v a r

0 M W

0 M v a r

0 M W

0 M v a r

1 7 2 M W 1 1 3 M v a r

1 4 7 M W 1 0 5 M v a r

1 4 5 M W 1 0 5 M v a r

1 4 3 M W

8 7 M v a r

1 4 3 M W

8 7 M v a r 1 7 0 M W 8 0 M v a r

8 9 0 6

S T E W A R T 4

8 9 5 1

S T E W A R T 2

8 9 4 9

8 0 1 1 7

8 0 1 2 3

8 7 7 3

8 0 1 0 7

8 0 1 0 8

8 0 1 1 8

8 3 7 7

5 9 3 0 0

8 3 5 7

8 3 5 8

8 0 1 5 5

H I D A L G O 4

8 5 0 0 6

W A T E R P R T5 9 4 5 0

L O M A _ 6 9

5 9 4 3

U N I O N _ C A

5 9 4 4

4 . 9 M v a r

4 . 9 M v a r

1 0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

- 3 6 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

2 3 . 5 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

1 4 . 1 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

7 . 1 M v a r

1 3 . 1 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

7 . 2 M v a r

4 . 6 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

5 8 . 4 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

9 . 9 M v a r

9 . 8 M v a r

4 . 8 M v a r

9 . 9 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

7 . 4 M v a r

6 0 . 1 M v a r

ZAPATA


STARR

HIDALGO

WILLACY

CAMERON

8336

8326

8329

80148

8324

8756

8798

8797

8793

5728

5729 8048

80106

89368937 8938

8981

8824

8388

8393

8998

89348935

8355

21 MW 1 Mvar

4 MW 0 Mvar

16 MW 0 Mvar 35 MW 11 Mvar

25 MW 8 Mvar

AJ O7A

-200. 1 Mvar

80076

ZORI LLO7A

80071

SARI TA7A

80171

PENASCAL7A

80178

PNSCALT11A80180

24. 6 MW 16. 6 Mvar 24. 6 MW 16. 6 Mvar

PNSCALT21A80181

GULFWI ND7A80078

GWI NDT11A80080

21. 0 MW 14. 2 Mvar

19. 8 MW 13. 4 Mvar

18. 6 MW 13. 2 Mvar 9. 0 MW 6. 3 Mvar

GWI NDT21A80081

19. 8 MW 13. 4 Mvar

12. 9 MW 11. 8 Mvar

21. 0 MW 14. 2 Mvar

10. 2 MW 7. 1 Mvar

CAVAZOS4A80229

L. FRES 48333

AZTECA48708

MVFAYSW98782

OLMI TO48950

SI OUXSUB88792

SURRCFE48825

ELGATO4A85005

89838982

OLEANDER2A80023

OLEANDER4A80022

OLEANSTR80025

OLEANDER TER80024

PNSCALT31A

25 MW 17 Mvar 25 MW 17 Mvar 0. 0 Mvar

80182

GCI SNRT21A80087

PNSCALT41A

25 MW 17 Mvar

25 MW 17 Mvar

0. 0 Mvar

PNSCALT51A


0. 0 Mvar

8018480183

81%B

Amps

69%B

Amps

49%B

Amps 69%

B

Amps


2015 Summer Peak Power Flow : Generating Station out of service + 345 kV line

RIOHND 6

EDNBRG 6

LAPALM 6

R A C H A L 4

E D N B R G 4

ARMSTNG4

R A Y V I L E 4

R I O H N D 4


R A N D A D O 4

M E C L O P N 4

F A L C O N 4

R O M A T P 4

R O M A 4

G A R Z A 4

B A T E S 4

P A L M V W 4

F R O N T


L A S A R A S U B 8

M V G N # 3

M V G N # 1

M V G N # 2

L A P A L M 4

H A I N E D R 4

L O M A A L T A

M I L . H W Y 4

P . I S A B L 4


H A R L I N S W

C A R B - V L 4

T I T A N

C A U S W A Y 4

S . P A D R E 4

L A P A L M 2

W E S M E R 4

H A R L I N S W

H I W A Y 5 1 1 S U B 8

W E S U N T 4


C O F E P R T 4

C N T R L A V E S U B 8


S M C A L N 4

W M C A L N 4

H . A C R E S 4

N M C A L N 4

S H L N D 4

P O L K 4

M C C O L L 4

P H A R R 4

P H A R R S U B 8



S E E D N B 4

H E C 4



D O E D Y N S U B 8

W E S L C S W 4

H E C B 4


A L T O N S U B 8

E L S A 4

G A N D Y S U B 8



B U R N S S U B 8

B A T E S 2

G A R Z A 2

F R T T S 0 0 1

F R T T S 1 0 1 F R T T S 2 0 1

L A P A L S T R

R A Y V I L E 2

C O N T I N L 2

R G C T Y 2

R I O R I C O 2

R N G R V L E 2



R A Y V L 1 - 2

H G N - 1 2

W H G N 2

H A R R I S N 2

S B E N I T O 2

P W R P L T 6 9

B R W N S W 2

B R W N C Y 2

LHEDM

LHEDL

LHRHM

LHRHL

YTURRIASUB8

S L U T A L R 4

8383

8318

8317

8 8 9 6

8 3 8 0

8899

8 3 0 2

8 3 1 9

8 7 9 0

8 6 9 9

8 9 5 7

8 3 9 5

8 7 9 5

8 7 9 6

8 3 9 9

8 3 9 2

8 3 8 7

8 9 8 0

8 7 0 5

8 7 0 4

8 9 7 1

8 9 6 98 9 7 0

8 3 1 4

5 9 6 2

8 3 3 9

8 3 3 8

8 7 4 7

8 3 3 7

5 9 6 3

8 7 4 4

8 3 3 5

8 3 1 0

8 3 4 7

8 3 2 5

8 7 6 7

8 3 4 8

8 7 5 8

8 9 1 4

8 7 6 6

8 7 6 4

8 3 7 1

8 3 6 7

8 7 6 0

8 3 6 8

8 3 9 1

8 3 7 3

8 9 0 8

8 3 7 2

8 7 6 2

8 7 7 4

8 7 5 9

8 3 7 4

8 9 6 3

8 7 7 1

8 7 6 9

8 7 5 3

8 3 5 4

8 3 5 6

8 7 5 4

8 7 7 28 3 6 0

8 7 5 5

8 7 6 8

8 7 6 5

8 3 9 0

8 3 9 7

8 3 0 0

8 7 9 9

8 7 5 1

8 7 4 8

8 7 8 6

8 7 8 38 7 8 5

8 7 0 0

8 3 2 1

8 3 2 0

8 7 1 0

5 9 3 0

8901

8905

8903

8902

8702

8 8 2 1

M E R E T T S U B 8

8 7 5 2

P A L O A L T O

5 9 6 5

RIOHNSTR

M V G N # 1

M V G N # 2M V G N # 3

E D N B R S T R

8 3 8 4

E D 1 T E R T8 3 4 1

L P 3 T E R T8 3 2 8

M I L H W Y S8 0 0 0 3

S L U B E N T 4

8 8 2 2

M I S S I O N

8 0 1 2 1

B A T # 1

B A T # 2



F G N T S 2 0 1F G N T S 1 0 1

F G N T S 0 0 1

H E C N 1

H E C N 2 H E C N 3

R H 1 T E R T

S U N C H S E 48 9 1 7

8 3 5 9

S S . R O S A

R I O H N S T R

F I L T E R _ P

5 9 4 2 0

P R I C E _ R D5 9 4 1 0

F M _ 8 0 2

5 9 4 0 0M I D T O W N

5 9 4 9 0

F A L C O N S S

G A R C E N 4

8 9 2 3

H I L I N E S U B 8

8 7 7 8

P L M H S T T 2

K E Y S S 4

P A L M H S T 4

A L A M O

M O O R E F

P L M H S T T 1

N _ M E R C E D

G O O D W I N 4

L A G R U L A 4

R H 2 T E R T

C I T R U S C Y

R G C T Y 4

S L U R R 4

8 3 2 7

8 3 2 2

8 3 2 3


N W E S L A C O

P W R P L A N T

0 M W

0 M v a r

0 M W 0 M v a r

8 7 6 3

M H S T C O M

E D N B R G 2

0 M W 6 1 M v a r

8 3 3 1

8 3 3 2

0 M W 0 M v a r

0 M W 0 M v a r

0 M W 0 M v a r

0 M W 0 M v a r

0 M W

0 M v a r

0 M W

0 M v a r

1 7 2 M W 1 1 3 M v a r

1 4 7 M W 1 0 5 M v a r

1 4 6 M W 1 0 5 M v a r

1 4 3 M W

8 7 M v a r

1 4 3 M W

8 7 M v a r 1 7 0 M W 8 0 M v a r

8 9 0 6

S T E W A R T 4

8 9 5 1

S T E W A R T 2

8 9 4 9

8 0 1 1 7

8 0 1 2 3

8 7 7 3

8 0 1 0 7

8 0 1 0 8

8 0 1 1 8

8 3 7 7

5 9 3 0 0

8 3 5 7

8 3 5 8

8 0 1 5 5

H I D A L G O 4

8 5 0 0 6

W A T E R P R T5 9 4 5 0

L O M A _ 6 9

5 9 4 3

U N I O N _ C A

5 9 4 4

5 . 0 M v a r

5 . 0 M v a r

1 0 . 0 M v a r

4 . 5 M v a r

1 3 . 0 M v a r

9 8 . 6 M v a r

9 8 . 9 M v a r

1 1 . 6 M v a r

3 . 6 M v a r

- 3 5 M v a r

4 . 8 M v a r

0 M v a r

9 . 8 M v a r

2 9 . 8 M v a r

2 . 3 M v a r

2 . 3 M v a r

3 1 . 0 M v a r

4 . 6 M v a r

1 9 . 6 M v a r

9 . 5 M v a r

5 2 . 3 M v a r

2 . 3 M v a r

2 4 . 0 M v a r

2 . 3 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

4 . 5 M v a r

1 4 . 6 M v a r

9 . 6 M v a r

7 . 4 M v a r

1 3 . 8 M v a r

3 2 . 1 M v a r

2 . 6 M v a r

7 . 2 M v a r

4 . 7 M v a r

2 8 . 8 M v a r

6 1 . 1 M v a r

6 3 . 6 M v a r

9 . 9 M v a r

9 . 9 M v a r

4 . 9 M v a r

9 . 9 M v a r

0 . 0 M v a r

7 . 4 M v a r

6 0 . 1 M v a r

ZAPATA


STARR

HIDALGO

WILLACY

CAMERON

8336

8326

8329

80148

8324

8756

8798

8797

8793

5728

5729 8048

80106

89368937 8938

8981

8824

8388

8393

8998

89348935

8355

21 MW 1 Mvar

4 MW 0 Mvar


25 MW 8 Mvar

AJ O7A

-203. 1 Mvar

80076

ZORI LLO7A

80071

SARI TA7A

80171

PENASCAL7A

80178

PNSCALT11A80180

24. 8 MW 10. 3 Mvar 24. 8 MW 10. 3 Mvar

PNSCALT21A80181

GULFWI ND7A80078

GWI NDT11A80080

21. 2 MW 14. 2 Mvar

20. 0 MW 13. 4 Mvar

18. 8 MW 13. 2 Mvar 9. 2 MW 6. 3 Mvar

GWI NDT21A80081

20. 0 MW 13. 4 Mvar

13. 1 MW 11. 8 Mvar

21. 2 MW 14. 2 Mvar

10. 4 MW 7. 1 Mvar

CAVAZOS4A80229

L. FRES 48333

AZTECA48708

MVFAYSW98782

OLMI TO48950

SI OUXSUB88792

SURRCFE48825

ELGATO4A85005

89838982

OLEANDER2A80023

OLEANDER4A80022

OLEANSTR80025

OLEANDER TER80024

PNSCALT31A

25 MW 17 Mvar 25 MW 17 Mvar 0. 0 Mvar

80182

GCI SNRT21A80087

PNSCALT41A

25 MW 17 Mvar

25 MW 17 Mvar

0. 0 Mvar

PNSCALT51A


0. 0 Mvar

8018480183

108%B

Amps

109%B

Amps


LRGV Voltage stability Analysis

• The voltage stability analysis indicates that the NERC Category C contingency limits the import capability to the LRGV.

• Based on the 5YTP model, the voltage stability limit for the LRGV is approximately 2,560 MW.

• The actual steady state voltage limits could be lower than the voltage stability limit.


2011 Summer Peak Voltage Stability


LRGV Thermal/Voltage stability Summary

• The thermal limits based on the current ERCOT SSWG planning model/criteria will exceed by 2014.

• The voltage stability only exceed the thermal limits by approximately 150 MW.

• The voltage stability limits being so close to the thermal limits indicate that increasing the thermal capacity of the existing LRGV interface would not significantly improve the load serving capacity.

• There is a need for transmission or market solution in the LRGV to meet the forecasted load beyond 2014.


Operational issues affecting the LRGV

• A major operational issue is the difficulty to grant clearances for both transmission and generation maintenance outage in the LRGV.

• There is a limited time windows to grant maintenance outages in the LRGV and any extreme weather during this period could require load shed.

• There is a potential for severe weather (hurricanes) that could affect both the existing 345 kV lines sourced from the Corpus Christi area and significantly reduce the load serving capability in the LRGV.


Historical AEP-TCC Valley Load Data

• Historical AEP-TCC Valley load data presented in the next few slides provide show some evidence of peak windows.

• Based on the McAllen, Texas weather station data back to1960.


Historical AEP-TCC Valley Load

0%

2%

3%

5%

6%

8%

9%

11%

12%

14%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Prob

abili

ty o

f bei

ng th

e An

nual

Pea

k

Perc

enta

ge o

f Ann

ual P

eak

TCC Valley - Historical Peak Days and ProbabilitiesBased on Valley Load Data since 1996

Historical Maximum of Daily Peak as a Percentage of Annual PeakProbability of being the Annual Peak



0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

12.5%

15.0%

17.5%

20.0%

22.5%

25.0%

27.5%

30.0%

32.5%

35.0%

37.5%

40.0%1-

Jan

8-Ja

n15

-Jan

22-J

an29

-Jan

5-Fe

b12

-Feb

19-F

eb26

-Feb

4-M

ar11

-Mar

18-M

ar25

-Mar

1-Ap

r8-

Apr

15-A

pr22

-Apr

29-A

pr6-

May

13-M

ay20

-May

27-M

ay3-

Jun

10-J

un17

-Jun

24-J

un1-

Jul

8-Ju

l15

-Jul

22-J

ul29

-Jul

5-Au

g12

-Aug

19-A

ug26

-Aug

2-Se

p9-

Sep

16-S

ep23

-Sep

30-S

ep7-

Oct

14-O

ct21

-Oct

28-O

ct4-

Nov

11-N

ov18

-Nov

25-N

ov2-

Dec

9-D

ec16

-Dec

23-D

ec30

-Dec

Probabilility of a Peak Inducing TemperatureBased on McAllen, TX Daily Average Temperatures since 1960



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

19611963196519671969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011

McAllen, TX Annual Minimum Daily Average Temperature (1960 to Present)

Only 6 times in the last 51 years hasMcAllen's annual minimum daily average temperature been 32 or

below. It is the first time since 1997.

21 September 17, 2010 RPG Meeting March 12, 2010

Questions?

March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) Import.

Documents

Transcript of March 11, 2011 RPG Meeting Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) Import.