Marc Santos 2008 ASME WISE Intern University of Massachusetts Amherst
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Transcript of Marc Santos 2008 ASME WISE Intern University of Massachusetts Amherst
Regional Emission-free Technology Implementation (RETI): Diversifying the U.S. Electricity Portfolio
Marc Santos2008 ASME WISE InternUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst
Overview
Climate Change Action Issue Definition Status of US Electricity Portfolio Transition Options Electricity Portfolio Projections Recommendations
Climate Change Action
In 2007 report: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “Warming of the climate system is Unequivocal” Reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 60-
80%
Sept 2007: President Bush states climate action needed
110th Congress produces 195 pieces of climate change legislation
Both Presidential candidates support a cap on GHG emissions
Rise in Electricity
Energy Information Administration states electricity will increase by 30% by 2030
1.1% increase per year will mean 45% increase by 2050 120 million digital converter boxes = half refrigerator Plasma TVs use 3-4 times more power Cell phone, laptop, and video game plug-in power supplies
have 40-50% power losses Potentially plug-in hybrid vehicles
Issue Definition
GHG emissions should be reduced to 80% of current levels by 2050.
US electricity demand to increase 45% by 2050.
Can the U.S. meet this amount of emission-free generation capacity by 2050? And, if so how?
Why Focus on Electricity?
Electricity sector is the largest producer of CO2
Current US Electricity Portfolio
Mostly fossil fuels, especially coal
No new nuclear facilities built for 30 years
Natural gas has been largest recent growth
Non-hydroelectric renewables are minimal
2006 production: 4065 billion kilowatt hours
Regional Electricity Use
Nuclear Hydroelectric Geothermal Wind Solar Biomass Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS)
Current Non-Emitting Technologies
Potential Renewables
Current Population Distribution
Energy production should be regional
Evaluating Existing Projections
Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2008 Annual Energy Outlook for 2030
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) 2008 “Prism” Full Portfolio Projection for 2030
International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Technology Perspectives Blue Map for
2050
Energy Information Administration
Increase in coal use No CCS technology Renewables grow
slightly New nuclear plants are
built to meet 19%Coal58%Petroleum
1%
Nuclear19%
Hydro6%
Natural Gas11%
Non-Hydro Renewables
5%
2008 Annual Energy Outlook projection for 2030
Electric Power Research Institute
Coal w/o CCS39%
Coal w/CCS13%
Natural Gas5%
Nuclear29%
Hydro5%
Non-Hydro Renewables
9%
CCS is developed for fossil fuels
Nuclear grows substantially
Renewables grow more rapidly than EIA projection
PRISM projection for 2030
International Energy Agency
Derived from 2008 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios Strategies to 2050
Regional Emission-Free Technology Implementation (RETI) Scenario Adapting the IEA global projections for the US domestic
electricity portfolio results in: 25% nuclear 46% renewable
Wind, Solar, Hydroelectric, Biomass, Geothermal 50% CCS technology for fossil fuels End-Use efficiency
Regional Emission-free Technology Implementation (RETI)
RETI Projected Results for 2050
0
1000
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Prod
uctio
n(bi
llion
kW
h)
2006 2050baseline
2050regionalscenario
Energy Porfolios
US Energy Porfolio
other
hydro
biomass
solar
w ind
nuclear
petroleum
natural gas
coal
0500
100015002000250030003500
CO
2 Em
issi
ons(
Tons
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2006 2050baseline
2050regionalscenario
Scenario
Emissions
petroleumnatural gascoal
•W/ CCS we reach a 73% reduction of 2006 emission levels.
2050 RETI 2050
RETI scenario
Development Needed for RETI
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Nuclear Wind Solar Hydro Biomass Geothermal
Gen
erat
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Capa
city
(GW
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Current Capacity
RETI 2050 Capacity
Large increase in Nuclear, Wind, and Solar capacities
Hurdles to Overcome
Nuclear Reprocessing and waste disposal Rebuilding infrastructure
Renewables Large scale energy storage Advanced transmission systems “smart grids” System reliability
CCS (Fossil fuels) Sequestration of Carbon
RecommendationsEmission-free Technology Advancement
Implement a national emission standard which allows for regional flexibility
Implement a national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) which allows regional portfolio development
Continue production tax credits for investment of renewable technologies.
Allocate a substantial percentage of R & D funding to
clean power generation technologies without specific inclusion or exclusion of particular emission-free systems.
Recommendations
Infrastructure Revision Upgrade current transmission lines to allow for additional
capacity of electricity and efficient grid use Create new programs to redevelop US infrastructure by
increasing worker training and facility construction to support the manufacture and installation of emission-free technologies.
Recommendations
Energy Efficiency Improve financial incentives for energy reduction through
economic programs such as federal tax credits and feed in tariffs.
Promote the development of efficiency standards in consumer products.
Questions?