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E D I T O R S P A G E

COAL IS an environmentalists bugbear. The use of coal to generate energy is the key reason the world is look-ing at a catastrophic future because of climate change. Recognising this, global civil society has given a rousing call for coal divestment, asking companies, universities

and individuals to stop investment in coal thermal power plants. They want coal to go, renewables to be in. And in the interim, clean gas, also a fossil fuel, to be used as a bridge fuel. In this scenario any talk of cleaning coal to make it less damaging is untenable.

This will not work for us in India. We have a huge energy def-icit, with millions of households without power for basic lighting or cooking. We have to address access to energy as much as the environmental problems of un-clean power. We need to push for renewablenot because we can afford to do without coal, but because this source of energy provides us the option to leapfrog to decentralised and off-grid power. But equally, and perhaps even more im-portant, is to clean coal power so that it does not destroy the environment and take human lives.

This is what my colleagues at the Centre for Science and Environment (cse) have done. They have taken apartquite literallythe thermal power sector in India and plant-by-plant looked at what is the efficiency rate, the pollution load, the management of waste and the compliance with environmental standards. Their findings, published in the report, Heat on Power: Green rating of coal-based thermal power plants, concludes that our plants are way behind the global best in terms of performance.

More importantly, it speaks of the dire crisis in the power sec-tor in the country, where the obsession is to build more plants and not fix what is clearly so completely brokensupply of affordable power to all. Of the 47 plants surveyedaccounting for roughly half the installed capacity in India in 2012only 12 had efficiency higher than 36 per cent, which touches Chinas average. The Indian average, pulled down by dated technology and poor resource man-agement, was a low 33 per cent.

Worse, the plant load factor has been declining in the past few years, going down to a low of 65 per cent in 2013-14, as compared to 79 per cent in 2007-08. This clearly speaks of the mismatch be-tween demand and supply, as state electricity companies struggle to buy power, even cheap power. This then affects the CO2 emissions from the plants. Indias average was 1.08 tonnes of CO2/MWh,

45 per cent higher than the global best and 14 per cent higher than Chinas average. Clearly, a huge opportunity for India is to improve efficiency and to replace its existing stock of plantsnot build new oneswith best technology.

This is not the only challenge. The fact is that power plants pol-lute air, consume water and dump huge quantities of waste, name-ly fly ash. Indian plants have a long way to go to clean up this mess. This is not a small matter. My colleagues have estimated that this sector alone is responsible for 70 per cent of the total freshwater withdrawal by all industries; over 60 per cent of the particulate mat-ter emissions; 50 per cent of sulphur dioxide emissions and more

than 80 per cent of mercury emissions. So, if we clean this sector, we make huge gains in clean-ing pollution from Indias industrial sector.

Doing this requires first setting standards that are stringent and usher in best technology and management, and then ensuring that mon-itoring is rigorous and verifiable. cse has found that most plants either contract out pollution monitoring to third-party laboratories or have set up online emission monitoring systems. But in both cases data is poor and systems unaudit-ed. This is particularly important because no pollution board has the capacity (or authority) to shut down a power plant for obvious reasons.

The biggest issue is gainful use of fly ash since Indias coal is of poor quality. For every

tonne of coal burnt, 35-40 per cent is generated as waste. Just con-sider the scale of this problem: over 40 per cent land area of power plants is used to dump ash. Over 1 billion tonnes of ash is lying un-used today and to this over 160 million tonnes are added each year. Everything we have done till date, including specifying the use of ash in cement manufacturing and bricks, is not making a dent in the gargantuan pile of muck.

So a clean-up is essential. But for this Indias power sector must also come clean. The cse project requires companies to voluntarily share data. It was Indias largest power generator, National Thermal Power Corporation, which refused public scrutiny. This will not build a cleaner future. Ultimately, this is the real agenda for reform.

HOW POWER CAN BE CLEANED

TAR

IQU

E /

CSE

www.downtoearth.org.in 3 16-31 MARCH 2015

03Editors.indd 3 09/03/15 3:54 PM

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vol 23, no 21; Total No of pages 60Editorial, subscriptions and advertisements: Society for Environmental Communications, 41, Tughlakabad Institutional Area, New Delhi 110 062, Phone: 91-11- 29955124, 29956110, 29956394, 29956399 Fax: 91-11-29955879. Email: [email protected] 2005 Society for Environmental Communications. All rights reserved throughout the world. Reproduction in any manner is prohibited. Printed and published by Sunita Narain on behalf of Society for Environmental Communications. Printed at International Print-o-Pac Limited, B-204, 205, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase I, New Delhi-110020 india and published at 41, Tughlakabad Institutional Area, New Delhi 110 062.To subscribe, sms 'dte Subscribe' to 56070

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A senior minister's suggestion that the rich should be allowed to keep tigers as pets in their farmlands has led to an uproar among wildlife activists. The minister cited the domestication of the

big cat in Southeast Asian countries as a successful model for tiger conservation. The minister later defended her decision, saying the tigers could be released into forests after being kept in farms for a few years

What happens when Arun Jaitley visits a chaiwala for pre-budget inputs? Our graphic editor visualises the interaction

CARTOON

BLOGSPECIAL FEATURE

Tigers as pets

Budget par chaiwale se charcha

Is India's target to produce 270 GW of renewable energy by 2022 feasible? asks Kanchan Kumar Agarwal

Ebola lessons for India The Ebola outbreak in West African countries should serve as a wake-up call for health authorities in countries like India, Nepal and Bangladesh. These are among the 28 countries that have health systems as fragile as or weaker than that of Ebola-affected Liberia, says a report

SPECIAL COVERAGE

On web Return of scented wood

On Facebook Doctors pen a book to expose medical malpractices in India

On Twitter Railway budget: How bio-toilets in trains work

POPULAR

4 DOWN TO EARTH 16-31 MARCH 2015

04web and credits.indd 4 05/03/15 4:41 PM

MGNREGS needs change Apropos the write-up, "In defence of capitalism" (December 16-31, 2014), any social project will be viewed as a wasteful handout by the market unless it is transformed into a self-sustaining programme that benefits the intended beneficiaries. In the past nine years, the country has indulged in profligate spending on the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural

Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), the rights-based, demand-driven and legally binding employment guarantee scheme. It was expected that an increase in the economic abilities and the consequent improvement in the quality of lives of the poor, as well as the significant assets building through the scheme would eventually offset the effects of this profligacy. But such an expectation appears to be a

wistful thinking. MGNREGS, as it currently exists, suffers from a couple of major drawbacks. First, the main focus seems to be on the creation of "man-days", but not on creation of durable

Use sewage with cautionThis is with regard to the article, "Is sewage farming safe?" (February 16-28, 2015). Farmers are using untreated sewage water for farming because it is easily avail-able and almost free. Since there have been no dedicated scientific studies on the harmful effects of sewage on plants, it is not wise to use untreated water. We have to keep the long-term health of citizens in mind. Every village or town where waste water is being used for farming should have agencies to test the quality of sewage. This would also help in developing expertise at the local level. Experts should advise on easy ways to set up waste water treatment plants in each area. This is necessary to keep harmful pollutants from reaching the food chain. It is a fact that waste water can be treated and used, but it must be monitored. In cities such as Singapore, fully treated waste water is even used for drinking.

D B N MURTHYlett

ers

REU

TER

S


05-07Letters.indd 5 05/03/15 4:18 PM

assets for sustainable rural development. It has diverted labour from agricultural production to the essentially Keynesian enterprise of digging ditches and filling them. Rural infrastructure created by unskilled labourers barely survives a single monsoon. Second, the emphasis seems to be on providing work opportunities to unskilled workers and no attempt is being made to upgrade the skills of the rural youth to enable, encourage and empower them to stand on their own feet. Why should not teaching be brought under the Act? MGNREGS, the world's largest social security programme, is only creating millions of labourers. Indeed, it seems to be yet another subsidy programme, which is always tempting, guaranteeing instant pay-offs for political parties, and running the risk of becoming a burden on the national exchequer.

The objectives of transforming MGNREGS into a self-sustaining programme can only be achieved if it is judicially devised, properly

targeted, transparent and accompanied by official data that can enable the intended beneficiaries to claim the welfare handouts as a matter of right. Obviously, before taking up the task of reforming it in terms of economic and social rationale, the government should closely examine whether its failure is due to its design or due to poor governance.

JAYDEV JANA

Let people choose food The article "Meaty tales of vegetarian India" (December 16-31, 2014) was good and informative. But many a time, those who support

meat-eating and debunk vegetarianism, terming it an upper caste religious slogan, have been found covertly working for commercial interest of multinational non-vegetarian food chains that have started operating in India. Such MNCs can only flourish if India's vegetarianism is attacked by nutrition experts and medical experts. But the so-called benefits of non-vegetarian foods have a flipside too. People eating non-vegetarian food are at a higher risk of contracting diseases such as the avian flu. Another threat they face is of developing resistance to antibiotics

lett

ers

Do you agree with Delhi government's move to exempt small industries from green clearance?

http://www.facebook.com/down2earthindia

Small industries have fewer checks and controls and contribute significantly to environmental damage. With no clearance required, these industries will have no reason to implement environment friendly technologies.

ASHUTOSH JOSHI

This is an idiotic decision. I research on issues related to the environment and know the ground situation. The small and medium enterprises (SME) are the biggest source of air and water pollution. I live in Lucknow, and here we do not have any large industry. But the river Gomti, which is the life line of the city, has been

badly contaminated by the effluents and wastes discharged from small units. SMEs are the biggest source of heavy metal contamination in drinking water, especially mercury, arsenic and chromium, and release polyaromatic hydrocarbons by burning petroleum products. This populist move of the Delhi government will cause long-term and irreparable loss to the Yamuna.

ASHUTOSH PATHAK

Delhi's air is the most polluted in the world... the decision will result in more pollution

MAHESH KUMAR BAJAJ

SORI

T /

CSE


05-07Letters.indd 6 05/03/15 4:18 PM

because poultry animals are often raised on an overdose of antibiotics. Eating meat is not a must for nutrition. There are many items in the vegetarian menu, such as soy, which provide enough protein and nutrition. These are cheap and easily available, too. Therefore, people should be made aware of the nutritional values of vegetarian and non-vegetarian food items, but food selection should be left entirely to individuals.

L R SHARMA

NGT has deliveredThis is with regard to "Tribune on trial" (November 16-30, 2014). My analysis of about 1,500 decisions and orders delivered by the National Green Tribunal (NGT) gave three simple insights: One, there is no decision that can be classified as truly irrational; two, there is no decision that has failed to cure some environmental ill somewhere on the ground; and, three, there is no decision that has not made pollution control boards wake up and behave the way they were designed to function. In summary, NGT has indeed lived up to the expectations that many of us had when we advocated its creation in the interest of environmental governance in India.

DEEP PANDEY

Ill-effects of intensive farming Apropos the editorial "Straw in the wind" (February 16-28, 2015), the practice of high-response and resource intensive agriculture, started during the Green

Revolution, continues to haunt us. While the legislation preventing farmers from transplanting before June 10 has helped elevate the water table in the short-and medium-term, this must be accompanied by promotion of the system of rice intensification (SRI method) so that production of rice can be made more sustainable. Reuse of the agricultural residues by ploughing it back into the soil is a much more sustainable option than trying to harvest it for energy production.

The former will augment soil fertility by retaining the organic material in the soil and also help conserve soil moisture through a build up of organic material.

RADHA

Erratum"Sweet cruelty" (February 16-28, 2015) wrongly mentioned the year of Christopher Columbus' departure for the New World as 1943. The correct year is 1493. The error is regretted.

N O T I C E B O A R D

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05-07Letters.indd 7 05/03/15 4:18 PM

cont

ents

20

17

14

24

11

THE FORTNIGHT

White paper on rare disorders

India's first white paper on rare diseases highlights the dearth of authentic data and medical

infrastructure

Cattle go hungry

Maharashtra shows no urgency in dealing with

acute fodder shortage in the state

Recharge plan for lakes Ahmedabad plans to arrest the decline

of groundwater by reviving its lakes. But execution remains a challenge

Short on data

Absence of reliable data on water demand

and supply in the country makes its

management difficult

The enigmatic fluIt is yet not clear why so many people continue to die of swine flu

COVER STORY


08-09Contents.indd 8 05/03/15 4:43 PM

34

43

48

40

50

56

WILDLIFE

ANALYSIS

Multigrain delight

Multigrain foods have been a part of Indian

diets since ages

Limiting drug access Using gross national income to determine a country's access to expensive drugs is problematic

Whose language is it? Recent studies that locate the

origin of Sanskrit outside India will ruffle quite a few feathers

Taming of the rogues

Maharashtra and Karnataka have employed elephants

to capture wild tuskers that destroy crops

A change for worse Reforms suggested by the Subramanian committee would make green laws more complicated

FOOD

Plastic threat Amount of plastic entering oceans

could be up to 2,000 times more than previous estimates

Solar losing ground Census reports show that use of solar power has declined in urban India between 2001 and 2011SCIENCE

OPINION

Battle against plagiarismKasturi Lal Chopra, president of Society for Scientific Values, is fighting to rid scientific institutions of academic misconduct

Death knell for panchayats

Government's new found `cooperative federalism' will

destroy the institutions of local governance

INTERVIEW

52

58

44


08-09Contents.indd 9 05/03/15 4:43 PM

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T H E F O R T N I G H T

1.1 blnpeople are at

risk of hearing loss in the world

`Do more for patients of rare disorders 'I N D I A ' S F I R S T white paper on rare diseases recommends that the country needs to put in place a funding mechanism and adequate medical infrastructure to ensure timely diagnosis and treatment of patients suffering from rare diseases. The paper, released by Delhi-based Lysosomal Storage Disorder Support Society (LSDSS), says patients are forced

to rely on philanthropy and patient access programmes due to lack of support from the government. It also points to a dearth of authentic data, including prevalence of rare diseases in India. Lysosomal Storage Disorders (LSDs) are a group of approximately 50 rare genetic diseases in which a particular enzyme is not formed in the body.

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Source: World Health Organization

11-13The Fortnight.indd 11 09/03/15 12:22 PM


U N E M P L O Y M E N T W I L L continue to rise in the coming years as the global economy has entered a new period, combining slower growth, widening inequalities and turbulence, warns a new International Labour Organization (ilo) report. By 2019, more than 212 million people will be out of work, up from the current 201 million, according to

the World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2015. More than 61 million jobs have been lost since the start of the global crisis in 2008 and our projections show that unemployment will continue to rise until the end of the decade. This means the job crisis is far from over and so there is no place for complacency, ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said.

Farmers' suicide cases rise 26 % in 2014T H E N U M B E R of cases of suicide by farmers due to agrarian reasons have increased by 26 per cent to 1,109 in 2014, with the majority of deaths reported from Maharashtra, the government told Parliament recently. Out of 1,109 cases, 986 were reported from Maharashtra, 84 from Telangana and 29 from Jharkhand. In 2013, 879 farmers had committed suicide, and in 2012, the cases

of farmer suicides were 1,046, according to data shared by the Minister of State for Agriculture Mohanbhai Kundaria, in a written reply to Lok Sabha. "Reasons of suicide by farmers, as reported by state governments, are manifold which include crop failure, indebtedness, drought, socio-economic and personal reasons," Kundaria said.

Unemployment to rise over next five years

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T H E M A D H Y A Pradesh government has launched its first sand mining policy to make sand available easily and at

cheap rates. The new policy has abrogated mandatory provisions of furnishing a mining plan and environment clearances. The state has also removed limitations that any mine should not have another mine within a radius of 10 km. The proposed policy would create opportunities for the state to generate revenue of ` 880 crore against the present ` 180 crore by auctioning 22.8 million cubic metres of sand each year.

A S T U D Y conducted by the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bengaluru, has said that large-scale deforestation, particularly in high latitude regions, could cause monsoon rains to shift south, cutting rainfall in India by nearly a fifth. Researchers from the IISc used a model simulating atmosphere circulation, as well as photosynthesis, transpiration, warming of the ocean surface and ice melt. "Our study is

showing that remote deforestation in mid- and high-latitudes can have a much larger effect on tropical rainfall than local tropical deforestation," the researchers said. The South Asian monsoon region would be affected the most, with an 18 per cent decline in precipitation over India, the scientists wrote in the paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) journal.

U N U S U A L L Y H E A V Y rains in the first week of March caused heavy damage to Rabi crops in north, west and central India, particularly in the Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, the Vidarbha region of Maharastra, the Saurashtra region of Gujarat and Punjab and Haryana. The rains damaged crops like

wheat, mustard, pea and barley. According to a senior government official involved in the initial assessment of damage to crops, up to 20 per cent of the total crop could have been damaged. "Mostly, it is the wheat and mustard crops that have been damaged. The total cost of damage could be around `10,000 crore," the official said.

"Mahatma GandhiNationalRural Employment Guarantee Act is a living monument to the Congress-led UPA government's failures" Prime Minister Narendra Modi

India's rainfall could fall by 18 %

Unseasonal rains damage Rabi cropsTigers for pets?Madhya Pradesh law and animal husbandry minister Kusum Singh Mahdele has made a suggestion for increasing the number of tigers in India. In a proposal to the state forest minister, Gaurishankar Shejwar, Mahdele said, "Keeping tigers as pets is legally allowed in Southeast Asian countries like Thailand. The number of these animals is surprisingly high there." The minister's letter was recently accessed by RTI activist, Ajay Dubey. Mahdele's suggestion has caused an uproar among wildlife activists. But she has defended her stand.

Sand mining made easy VERBATIM

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ON FEBRUARY 10, Maharashtras revenue minister, Eknath Khadse, made two announc-ements. He banned the sale of fodder outside the district where it has been produced and prohibited cattle herders from the neighbouring state of Gujarat from grazing their animals in Maharashtra. The decisions were taken to tackle the fodder shortage the state is facing.

Maharashtra has been struggling with droughts for the past couple of years. One of the many problems drought causes is fodder shortage. As a relief measure, the state government has been organising free fodder camps from March end every year. But the situation this year is so severe that farmers need the camps immediately. However, the newly elected Bharatiya Janata Party government has not given any indication that

the camps will be held before the usual time. According to the revenue department,

8,139 villages in the eight districts of Marathwada have recorded less than 50 per cent yield this Kharif season and the situation is not likely to change in the Rabi season. Rainfall in 2014 was 40-50 per cent of the normal levels. This is even less than the levels seen in 2012, when the rainfall was 60 per cent of normal and caused a severe drought. According to the Groundwater Surveys and Development Agency, the drop in ground water levels this year is a whopping 0.94 m more than the average decline in the past five years.

With scarcity looming large (see Out of fodder on p16), the cost of fodder is rising. Two years ago the government banned the sale of fodder outside the district it was produced, says Bhumiputra Wagh of

Marathwada has been struggling with acute

fodder shortage, but the state government has not taken any step to counter the problem

APARNA PALLAVI

| nagpur

Starved of fodder

M A H A R A S H T R A D R O U G H T

Maharashtra can take a cue from non-profit Mann Deshi Foundation which ran a camp in Satara from 2012 to 2014. Over 11,000 head of cattle were provided fodder in the camp

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14-16Maharashtra Drought.indd 14 05/03/15 4:42 PM

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M A H A R A S H T R A D R O U G H T

Usmanabad-based non-profit Samaj Vikas Sanstha, which works on issues related to farmers. This helped farmers because it kept the prices lowat around ` 5-6 per pendi (a 2 kg bundle). But this year, the prices are already `12 per pendi. At this rate, farmers will have to spend `120 or more per day on every adult cow or bullock, he says.

For farmers who are in the business of milk production, the situation became even more difficult after the government reduced the rate at which it procures milk. Since it came to power, the government has reduced the price of milk procurement from `18-21 per litre to `10-14. This, coupled with the high price of fodder, has made dairy a loss-making prospect. The farmers are more keen than ever to sell cattle, says Pramod Jhinjhade of non-profit Mahatma Phule Samaj Seva Mandal. As a result, the price of cattle has fallen, he says. Earlier, a good hybrid cow would fetch anything between `40,000 and ` 50,000. Now the price is down to around ` 25,000. But still the sale of cattle is becoming increasingly common, says Wagh. During the 2012-13 drought, 50,000-70,000 head of cattle were sold to abattoirs in 13 drought-affected districts. This year, fodder shortage has triggered the process in March itself, he says.

Mahadeo Appa Tambde, a farmer from village Dakshin Deoli in Usmanabad district, says the fodder in his village will last only till mid-March. We need the camps now, but there has been no announcement from the government and people are beginning to get desperate. We will either have to take our cattle to places that still have water and fodder or sell them.

`Everything under control'Ganesh Deshpande, deputy commissioner, fodder development, animal husbandry department, says that according to government estimates, fodder situation in the state is the same as it has been in previous years. However, he also admits that there is no agency in the state that carries out a survey to determine the drought situation and the government figures are based purely on estimates. According to these figures, the situation is under control till the end of March, after which government will take a

decision on starting fodder camps, he says.T B Survase, deputy secretary for relief

and rehabilitation, revenue department, says that the decisions announced by the revenue minister had actually been taken by the previous government. The minister has only announced that these decisions will be implemented. Detailed decisions regarding their implementation are yet to be taken.

Even if the government does set up fodder camps, the quality of fodder it provides is not up to the mark, says Popatrao Pawar, former sarpanch of Ahmednagars Hiware Bazar village. The fodder they provided is mostly sugarcane, which is not just hard to chew but also detrimental to the health of animals. Many animals die or become ill from eating it.

Deshpande says cash crops, such as sugarcane, and fruit orchards have aggravated the problem of fodder shortage in the state because they do not produce viable fodder.

Worse, packaging of fruits requires a lot of grass that could have gone to animals, he says. Deshpande says his department provides 100 per cent subsidy on cultivation of perennial fodder crops like napier grass and African tall varieties of corn. But farmers say these crops are water intensive and do not grow in drought areas.

Parineeta Dandekar, a water expert from non-profit South Asia Network of Dams, Rivers and People, agrees that sugarcane cultivation is a big drain on the regions precious water resources. This water can be used to boost fodder security. This year, at a conservative estimate, 70 sugar factories in Marathwada have used 23.1 million cubic metres of water to crush 15.43 million tonnes of sugarcane produced in the region, she says, adding, This amount of water is sufficient to irrigate 8,000 acres of groundnut (one acre equals 0.4 hectare) and even larger fields of jowar or cornand these crops provide good quality fodder.

This is also corroborated by D M More, former director general of Maharashtra State Water Resources Department. The water required for irrigating 0.4 hectare of sugarcane is sufficient to irrigate 4.9 hectares of jowar, says More. At present, the amount of water being consumed by sugarcane is equal to the entire storage capacity of all the dams in the state.

Watersheds can helpWatersheds can be a great help in enhancing fodder security, says Pawar. He has been successfully developing watersheds in his area and says that a major part of the fodder requirement of the village is being met by the greenery around the local streams.

Watershed development has great potential in creating fodder security, but the new government is yet to show any enthusiasm in this area, he says, and adds that barring his village and a few surrounding ones where watershed development has been carried out, the entire region is in the grip of acute fodder crisis. Usually, migration due to drought starts towards the end of March, but this year people have already started moving. Unless steps are taken now, the situation by the end of March will be even more severe, he says. n

Source: 19th livestock census, 2012

Dry fodder

Green fodder

Maharashtra is facing a shortage of both dry and green fodder

Out of fodder

Cattle population in Maharashtra (cow, bullock, buffalo, sheep, goat)

31,796,849

Requirement

44.3 mln tonnes

Requirement

101.8 mln tonnes

Available

30.5 mln tonnes

Available

44.9 mln tonnes

Deficit

13.9 mln tonnes (31.3%)

Deficit

58.6 mln tonnes (59.4%)


14-16Maharashtra Drought.indd 16 05/03/15 4:42 PM

INDIA FACES serious challenges to sustain its water resources as agricul-ture, industry and domestic sectors compete with each other for the scarce resource. The situation is exacerbated by poor water management practices, over-extraction of surface and groundwater and pollution. Unfortunately, there is a lack of reliable data about the total potential of water resources and supply and demand of water.

Rainfall, Indias primary source of fresh-water, is estimated to be 4,000 billion cubic metre (bcm), but it varies widely across states, seasons and years. The Planning Commis- sions Steering Committee on water resourc-es for the 11th Five Year Plan reported that Indias water resources potential is 1,869 bcm, including groundwater. This is when utilis-able water resources have been assessed at 1,123 bcm, of which 690 bcm are from sur-face water and 433 bcm from groundwater. Besides, the surface water estimates have re-mained unchanged for several decadesthe National Agricultural Commission report in 1976 and subsequent estimates by the Central Water Commission in 1988 and 2001 have mentioned this number. But Planning Commissions working group for

the 12th Plan said it failed to locate any doc-ument explaining the basis for the estimate.

Availability: signs of stress Assuming the availability of 1,869 bcm to be accurate, India will move from a water-ade-quate nation (per capita availability of over 1,700 cu m/year) to a water-scarce one (per capita availability of less than 1,000 cu m/year) by 2025 (see Every drop counts, p18). Nine of 20 river basins, supporting 200 mil-lion people, are facing water shortage.

Groundwater is another area of crisis. India is heavily dependent on groundwater and is the largest consumer of groundwater in the world. The Central Groundwater Board in its 2012-13 yearbook reports that India drew 243 bcm of groundwater in 2009, which is 61 per cent of the countrys net avail-able groundwater. With no dedicated na-tional groundwater management pro-gramme, groundwater stores are being depleted at rates faster than they can be re-plenished. Nationally, 27 per cent of the blocks are classified as semi-critical or worse (withdrawal in excess of 70 per cent of avail-ability). Northwest states draw 127-170 per cent of the available groundwater.

A striking fact about water in India is the lack of

reliable data about all its aspects: total potential,

available supply and demand

PRIYAVRAT BHATI AND SANGEETHA SURESH

Figure it out yourself

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India is the largest consumer of groundwater in the world

17-18Water Day Special.indd 17 05/03/15 4:18 PM

W A T E R D A Y S P E C I A L

Increased water consumption results in higher water discharge, leading to degrada-tion in water quality. Today, industries are the main cause of water pollution.

Demand: growing pains Lets first consider the story of evolving water needs as India transforms from a coun-try with vast rural population dependent on agriculture to one that is relatively urban and industrialised. About 70 per cent of Indians live in rural areas. Agriculture needs account for 88 per cent of total water consumption, while industrial use and domestic water con-sumption by urban residents account for the balance 12 per cent of usage.

The situation in rich industrialised coun-tries is the reverse. However, as India develops, it is unlikely to urbanise and indus-trialise to the same extent as the developed world. Around half of Indias population is expected to remain rural by 2050 for whom agriculture will be the mainstay. Water for irrigation will remain a significant contribu-tor to the countrys total water needs. Nevertheless, rising urbanisation will result in increased domestic water consumption: urban dwellers use far more water than rural folks on a per capita basis. Industrial water needs will also increase in line with gdp increases. Indias current water policy rightly accords priority to domestic water.

Agriculture needs will also remain im-portant to feed the growing population and support livelihoods of half the country. Given significant water use by the agriculture sector, improving irrigation efficiency will be criti-cal to managing overall demand for water. As water supply gets constrained, com-peting demand from various sectors may lead to conflicts. Else, industry will be under tre-mendous pressure to improve water efficien-cy or risk facing serious obstacles to growth.

Information on water demandboth current and projectedis unreliable. The National Commission on Integrated Water Resources Development (nciwrd) project-ed water requirement for various sectors in 1999. The Ministry of Water Resources (mowr) produced another set of estimates in 2000. nciwrds estimates of water use for agriculture are lower than the ministrys es-timates since it assumes improved irrigation

efficiency. Conversely, nciwrds estimates of other uses (such as industry and domestic) are much higher than that of mowrs. nciwrds projected combined water use by industry and energy sectors stands at 56 bcm for 2010, while mowr pegged it at only 17 bcm. Going forward, the difference widens: nciwrd projected water consump-tion by industry and energy sectors to be 100 bcm by 2025 against only 38 bcm pro-jected by the ministry.

The absence of a national water database has been recognised as a serious shortcoming by the government. The 12th Plan envisages comprehensive aquifer mapping and devel-opment of a water database that includes assessment of national water resources potential and end users (by sector) of water.

Industrial water demand Various research reports agree that the de-mand for water by the industrial sector will show a sustained increase. However, the underlying assumptions vary, resulting in widely different projections. For instance, nciwrd estimates were based on water use of a small sample of companies. While the total water usage by industry and energy ap-peared reasonable, the split between energy and industry seemed wrong. On the other hand, mowr had projected inexplicably small water consumption (totalling 17 bcm in 2010) by the industry and energy sectors and then went on to project an extraordinary growth over 40 years. Recently, there have been attempts to refine these numbers.

The International Water Management Institute (iwmi), Colombo, has projected in-dustrial water need based on elasticity of de-mand with respect to gdp. Domestic water has been estimated based on increased ur-banisation and increase in coverage of house-holds. iwmi estimates show that the share of consumption by the industrial and house-hold sectors will continue to rise, accounting for a massive 54 and 85 per cent of the incre-mental water demand by 2025 and 2050.

One curious feature of the Indian indus-try is that development has occurred without considering water availability. In fact, some of the densest industrial clusters are in water-stressed states. A natural consequence of concentrated industrial activity has been sig-nificant pollution levels in both groundwater and rivers around the industrial clusters. n

India is ill-prepared to meet the rising water demand in the near future

Headed towards water scarcity

Urbanisation, industries to drive water demand

Water-thirsty sectors

1,816

1,029

1,545

1,2101,340

1,394

1,140

1,640

Per capita water availability (cubic metre/year) Population (million)

Domestic consumption, Industrial consumption

Irrigation Domestic Industrial

Per capita water demand (cubic metre/year)

Water demand (in billion cubic metre)

Source: 2013, Water in India, Situation and Prospects, UNICEF

Source: Amarasinghe, U. A et al, 2007

* Rounded off; Note: Domestic withdrawals include livestock water demand. Industrial withdrawals include cooling needs for power generation; Source: Amarsinghe, U. A et al, 2007

Every drop counts

1,800

1,600

1,200

1,000

8002001

2000

2011 2025

2025

2050

2050

3146

62

4266

605 675 637

34 66 101

42 92 161

102

2000 2025 2050

Total

680*833 900

*

Exclusive extract from State of Indias Environment 2015, an annual publication of Down To Earth and Centre for Science and Environment. Log on to http://csestore.cse.org.in/ for a copy of the book


17-18Water Day Special.indd 18 05/03/15 4:19 PM

19 MARCH31 2015

Advertisement

19MSPL ad.indd 19 10/03/15 3:57 PM

THE WATER table of Ahmedabad, like in most cities in the country, is dipping at an alarming rate, with the levels in many regions plummeting to more than 100 metres below ground level. The reasons are the sameunfettered urbanisation and industrialisationand so is the citys proposed solutionrevive the groundwater levels by restoring its lost lakes. The solution may sound simple but executing it on the ground is a daunting task. An optimistic Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (amc) says it will identify the lakes under threat by March end and then draw a plan to revive them.

Lost lakesAssociate professor at Gujarat University, Hitesh Solanki, who has documented the status of several lakes in the city, says devel-

opment around the lakes led to encroach-ment of the natural waterways, resulting in their death. One example is the Sarkhej Roza lake, which is located 8 km southwest of the main city. This peri-urban area was turned into an industrial hub in 1998 and brought under the jurisdiction of the citys municipal corporation. The lake, built by Sultan

Mehmud Begda in the 15th century, has monu-ments of archaeological importance, which are a popular tourist attraction.

Before 2004, migra-tory birds, including cor-morants and flamingos, were often seen there be-

tween December and February, says Bhavana Ramrakhiani, convenor, Ahmedabad Community Foundation (acf ), a non-profit working on environmental issues. She adds that the construction of high-rise buildings on the Sarkhej-Gandhinagar highway in 2004-05 led to the

Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation hopes to

arrest the city's dipping groundwater by reviving

its dying lakes. But in the absence of strong

wetland rules and intention, the efforts

will prove futile SUSHMITA SENGUPTA |

ahmedabad

Left to dry

U R B A N L A K E S

Encroachment of feeder channels and illegal excavation of lake bed are responsible for the decay of the Sarkhej Roza lake

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U R B A N L A K E S

loss of greenery in the area. The human-made lake was part of a network of lakes in the area. It traditionally received water from the ele-vated Shingoda or Makarba talaav (lake), which received water from lakes (in Prantij and Santej villages) near Ahmedabad, says Vasudevan Nair, deputy general manager of amc, who looks after the heritage depart-ment of the civic body.

The problem began when the inflow of water from the feeder Shingoda talaav stopped because of encroachment of the feeding drains connecting the two lakes. Today the Sarkhej Roza lake has water for just three months during rains. The high rate of evaporation in the area does not allow the water to stay for more than three months and this period is too short to allow groundwater recharge in the area, says Nair. Till 2005, tourists would enjoy boat rides on the lake throughout the year, says Shafi Ahmad, who sells beads and metal rings in the area.

Abdul Gani, a frequent visitor to a dargah in the area, says that groundwater was always shallow in the area, but in the past seven to eight years it has dipped to 15 metres. I used to take bath in the lake during summers, but it is now dry most of the year.

Uphill taskTalking about how difficult a task it will be to revive the lake channel, Ramrakhiani says Makarba talaav is not even notified as a lake in the government records. The other major issue is that the land mafia around the area digs away the soil from the lake bed for the

construction of buildings. The municipality claims it has lodged complaints several times against these builders to stop the excavation but there was no positive outcome.

Nair explains that the high rate of excavation from the lake has lowered the level of Makarba talaav much below the level of Sarkhej Roza and this has stopped the natural flow into the lake. Non-profit acf says illegal soil excavation from the lake started in 1998-99. The Archaeological Survey of India (asi) was renovating the monuments around the lake during this time, but they did not stop the illegal excavation because they are only supposed to take care of the monument and not the water body adjacent to it, says an asi official.

Encroachment of the natural drains be-tween the two lakes, lowering of the lake bed of Makarba talaav meant rainwater stopped flowing between them, says Nair.

In 2009, with the help of Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority (auda), there was an attempt to fill up the Sarkhej lake, says Arif Agharia, senior conservation assistant, asi. Agharia said that asi protested against this plan of bringing water into the lake by artificial hume pipes.

In November 2012, amc started laying stormwater drains in Sarkhej village and connected the drains to the Makarba lake. This brought some life to the Sarkhej lake in the monsoon of 2013. Ramrakhiani says this temporary solution is effective during the monsoons only. Solanki adds that analysis of the water collected in the Sarkhej lake after

the monsoons showed high concentration of phosphate in the water which indicates that domestic sewage was entering into the lake through the stormwater drain.

The same story holds true for almost all the other lakes in the city, including the Chandola lake, the largest lake in the city. In 2000, Ahmedabad lawyer Shailesh Shah filed a public interest petition to save the wa-ter bodies of Ahmedabad. In response, the court ordered the authorities to preserve the lakes and ponds of the state in 2002. The ver-dict also ordered the state to undertake ur-gent measures for checking pollution in the lakes and rejuvenate the water bodies. But more than a decade later, the municipal cor-poration is yet to identify the water bodies that need to be protected. Nair says though the commissioner has ordered immediate identification of the threatened lakes of the city, it is not clear whether Sarkhej Roza will be one of them.

Experts say the fresh attempt to revive the lakes will fail till the time effective wetland rules are put in place. Tej Razdan, convener of Jheel Sanrakshan Society, a non-profit based in Udaipur, says, The present wetland rules are toothless. Shashank Shekhar, a hydrologist working in Delhi University, says immediate programmes are needed to revive the water bodies. Nair says that the programmes should not only work on the lakes but also on the feeder channels and catchment areas to make them encroachment free. This can happen only if the government is committed. n

2005 2012

In just seven years, the Sarkhej Roza lake has transformed from a lake to a dry patch of land

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When flu turns fatal

In the past two months, as many as 1,198 people in India have died of swine flu, a disease which is only as threatening as seasonal flu. JYOTSNA SINGH travels to

the worst-affected state, Rajasthan, and talks to health experts in Delhi to understand why flu viruses are

causing pandemics

UST AS spring was setting in and people were heaving a sigh of relief, unseasonal rains lashed many parts of the country towards the end of February, stirring a familiar fear. Most of the states, including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Delhi and Gujarat that received heavy rainfall, have reported a high number of swine flu cases this winter; cases of deaths in these states have touched triple digits. Low temperature means that H1N1, the virus that causes swine flu, is likely to

thrive in the air for some more time. Going by the wisdom of public health experts, swine flu is as benign as any other

seasonal flu, but people are wary of it as they fail to distinguish between the two. And by the time they do, it might be too late for some. Take the case of Kailash Chand, a 40-year-old daily wager from Guja village in Rajasthans Jaipur district. Despite cold, cough and mild fever, he avoided going to a doctor for a week and continued to work at a construction site. We thought he would recover in some time. But his condition kept worsening. He became weaker and could not walk properly, says Ramavtar, Chands nephew. They consulted the village health worker, called the local auxiliary nurse and midwife (anm), but she did not know about the flu or its treatment. So Ramavtar took Chand to Kotputli town where doctors took three long days to diagnose the ailment. They said no hospital in Kotputli had the expertise to treat him and referred him to Sawai Man Singh (sms) hospital, Ramavtar says.

sms hospital in Jaipur is a super-specialty government hospital in the state. By the time Chand travelled 117 km to reach the hospital, he had developed infection in both the lungs and breathlessness. The doctors at sms hospital had to immediately ad-mit him in the intensive care unit (icu). Till the time the magazine went to the press,,

J

24-32 Cover story-swine flu.indd 24 09/03/15 12:20 PM

Large number of swine flu deaths has created panic

in the national capital. People are undergoing

flu tests even if they have common cold

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Chands condition was critical and he was on life-support system (see A long road to treatment, p28).

Chand is one of the 5,782 people in Rajasthan affected by swine flu; the state has recorded 286 deaths. Rajasthan is one of the poorest states in India, lagging behind other states not only in economic growth, but also in education and public health. Public health experts blame lack of awareness and poor healthcare infrastructure for the maximum number of swine flu cases in Rajasthan. Similar excuses are also cit-ed for states like Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh that have equally bad health infrastructure; they have witnessed 1,899 and 1,077 cases respectively.

But why are relatively developed states, which have good infrastructure and literacy rates, witness-ing such high number of swine flu cases?

Panic and pressureTake Gujarat. Prime Minister Narendra Modis home state, whose model of development has been adopted by many states in India, has witnessed the highest number of swine flu deaths (292) this season and recorded 4,904 cases. Delhi does not fare any bet-ter. The national capital has some of the best health-care facilities and institutes in the country. But with 3,310 cases of swine flu in the past two months and 10 deaths, Delhi has become a panic zone. A sense of

fear and confusion is evident from conversations on the street. Face masks have become the norm, worn by weary Delhiites as a precautionary measure. An advertisement by the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare is being regularly aired on FM radio channels to create awareness about swine flu.

A K Gadpayle, additional medical superintendent and nodal officer, swine flu, in government-run Ram Manohar Lohia (rml) hospital in Delhi, says people are anxious about the disease. They are not willing to believe us when we say they do not need medicine or get themselves tested for swine flu. We are under a lot of pressure to conduct unnecessary tests.

The panic is much more pronounced in pri-vate hospitals. Patients sometimes force us to ad-mit them, leave alone testing, says Jasvinder Paintal, doctor at Indraprastha Apollo Hospitals, a chain of private hospitals. The management has earmarked its Delhi hospitals first floor for swine flu treatment. There are 35 beds in the ward and 10 in the icu.

Some are even bypassing the doctors and getting themselves tested for the virus. Dr Lal Path Lab, a leading chain of private laboratories in Delhi, has pressed its workforce to collect throat swabs of sus-pected swine flu patients from home and send them the test results via email. We do not want our premis-es to be infected, says a spokesperson of the laborato-ry chain. On an average, the lab was collecting nearly 50 samples a day. These are rarely being done on the basis of prescription.

Those who cannot afford private labs go to government hospitals to get tested. This creates un-necessary burden on the healthcare system, says Puneet Bedi, senior consultant at Indraprastha Apollo Hospitals. For example, at rml hospital, a staff of 10 doctors and nurses have been assigned to look after swine flu patients. Ideally, they should not attend to more than 200 patients a day, but since January, the out patient department has been flooded with about 500 patients daily, eager to get tested and treated for swine flu. As a result, the doctors have not been able to attend to those patients who have tested positive for H1N1.

This is precisely why after the swine flu pan-demic in 2009 the government introduced proto-cols based on guidelines of who. Under this, patients who have mild fever, cough, sore throat, body ache, nausea and diarrhoea need to stay at home to avoid spread of infection and be monitored for 48 hours. High-risk groups-children, pregnant women, the el-derly and those with low immunity-with the same symptoms but higher fever need to be given med-icine oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and confined to home.

Kailash Chand received treatment for swine flu a week after he experienced symptoms. He should have received medication within two days

India has seen a spike in swine flu after four years

Back after a lull

27,236

20,604

603

5,044

5,253

902

22,240

981

1,763

75

405

699

216

1,198

Source: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare; *as on March 4

Cases Deaths

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015*



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C O V E R S T O R Y

Those showing all the symptoms in higher degree need immediate hospitalisation. Widespread panic has led to blatant violation of these protocols (see Cashing in on panic, p30).

This season, even though swine flu has not been declared an epidemic in India, its spread has been similar to that of an epidemic. In May 2009, when swine flu first hit the country, the number of cas-es till December was 27,236, with 981 deaths. The situation this year has been far more severe. In just two months, 22,240 cases and 1,198 deaths have been reported (see Back after a lull, p26).

The urgency to bring the situation under con-trol was evident from the worried look on the fac-es of all MPs in Parliament on February 27. A day before the new National Democratic Alliance gov-ernment presented its first Union Budget, swine flu was the most dominant issue during the question

hour. Queries were usual: how does swine flu spread; what is the governments plan of action; do we have enough laboratories for diagnosis?

People are asking these questions not only in India, but in other countries as well. Since January this year, H1N1 has manifested itself globally, particularly in northern Africa and West Asia, including Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia.

Threat, even a century laterH1N1 is not new. The world first came to know about it in 1918, when it killed over 50 million peo-ple worldwide and infected another 500 million (see Worrying time, p30). But that was the pre-anti-viral era. In the past century, medical science has made tremendous progress. Following the swine flu pan-demic in 2009, scientists developed medicines and vaccines to fight the virus. Moreover, swine flu is not an efficient killer. Though it poses death risk only to high-risk groups and those suffering from chronic ill-nesses, such as diabetes and heart diseases, lives can be saved with proper medical care.

What, then, could be the reason for the exponential increase in the number of swine flu cases and deaths in India?

Public health experts blame the current out-break on decades of failure to invest adequate-ly in basic health services and infrastructure. Consider Rajasthan, the state with the second-highest swine flu fatality in the country. Only 10 hospitals are equipped to treat swine flu pa-tients and all of them are located in cities. In the past two months, sms hospital alone received 1,260 cases of H1N1 flu from across the state and recorded 85 deaths, out of which 46 were from out-side Jaipur. Many had come from as far off as Bikaner (338 km from Jaipur), Jhunjhunu (170 km), Alwar (159 km) and Tonk (106 km).

Treatment is effective when provided within first two days of onset of symptoms. But patients came to us five to seven days later, says Ajit Singh, nodal of-ficer, swine flu, sms Hospital. Unlike in 2009, this time health authorities had enough stock of Tamiflu. Singh says many patients who died at sms hospital could have been treated in their home town as the government has made Tamiflu available at primary and community health centres.

Poor awarenessNot all health workers, like anms and ashas (accred-ited social and health activists), are trained to iden-tify swine flu patients and monitor them, says Rajib Dasgupta, faculty, Centre for Social Medicine and

Medical aid in the first two days can treat swine flu, but many factors together aggravate the condition, as in the case of Kailash Chand

A long road to treatment

4 Chand gets admitted to ICU on March 1, almost 8 days after catching swine flu. He is now in critical condition

1 Kailash Chand is a 40-year-old labourer. He catches swine flu around February 21, but mistakes it for seasonal cold. Avoids doctor for 4-5 days thinking he will recover. But his condition weakens. He consults a village health worker who does not know about flu

3 They do not have the expertise to treat him and refer him to SMS hospital in Jaipur, 117 km away

2 He then goes to Kotputli town on Feb 25 for treatment. There, doctors

diagnose him with swine flu on Feb 28, a week after the onset of infection.



29 march 31 201529Sintex ad.indd 29 10/03/15 3:58 PM

C O V E R S T O R Y

Community Health, Jawaharlal Nehru University (jnu) in Delhi. Kiran Soni, an anm in Bagru vil-lage near Jaipur, did attend a training programme on swine flu. But she did not realise she had contract-ed the disease until she was diagnosed with the vi-rus. Till late January, even doctors in the state did not know that there is a spike in swine flu cases, says Singh. As doctors kept referring their patients to big-ger hospitals or those in cities, it contributed to the death toll. First, families with financial constraints do not take patients out of their native place, increasing the probability of deaths. Second, in case of conta-gious diseases like swine flu, high mobility of patients can result in faster spread of the infection.

Proper protection to health workers is an impor-tant step to check the spread of infectious diseases, which is also missing in the country. A doctor treating patients suspected of swine flu at the emergency ward of sms hospital says, I am working in a high-risk area, but have been given the cheapest mask to cover my face. This is true for other health workers on duty.

Limited knowledge The current outbreak also points to crucial gaps in the understanding of H1N1, even though it has resurfaced in the country every year since 2009. Usually, following a pandemic, people de-velop resistance to the virus. Wan Yang, associate research scientist, Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, US, explains that going by that logic, those who were exposed to H1N1 virus in 2009 should have become immune to it and the virulence of H1N1 should have reduced to that of a seasonal flu. But that does not seem to be the case. The current fatality risk of swine flu epidem-ic in India appears much higher than seasonal flu in the US, Yang says. He suggests conducting more research to understand the disease-causing capacity of the infecting strain.

Rafi Ahmed, director of Emory Vaccine Centre in Atlanta, US, and advi-sor to the Indian governments department of biotechnology, warns in the media that if there is a different H1N1 virus being circulated in India, it may have global implications. Researchers Kannan Tharakaraman and Ram Sasisekharan at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, US, com-pared proteins important for virulence and transmis-sibility in the 2009 and 2014 swine flu epidemics. They found that the H1N1 flu virus that circulat-ed in India in 2014 was distinct from the one that caused the flu in 2009. The findings are published in the March 11 issue of the journal Cell Host & Microbe.

D E L H I H A S managed to avert a high death toll caused by swine flu, but is grappling with another problem. According to the Government of India's clinical management protocol of pandemic influenza H1N1, not all patients need medical care. Those with mild fever, cough, sore throat, body ache, nausea and diarrhoea do not even require to get themselves tested for the virus. But in a blatant violation of the protocol, many private hospitals recommend tests, medicines and even hospitalisation, says Jasvinder Paintal, doctor at Indraprastha Apollo. Physicians charge at least ` 1,500 per visit. Visiting a patient in ICU is costlier.

Private laboratories are also taking advantage of the situation to make money. Till the first week of February, Sequence Lab was charging ` 3,500 for swine flu test, while Dr Dang's Lab was charging ` 9,000. On February 18, Director General of Health Services Jagdish Prasad wrote to the Delhi government, asking it to ensure that government-authorised

Cashing in on panic

In 1918, H1N1 was first detected in Spain and it led to the worst pandemic in recent history, killing 50 million people worldwide. In the next century, there have been 11 pandemics of new strains of H1N1. Out of these, seven have been reported in the decade 2005-15

Source: National Institutes of Health, US

Worrying time

40 Years 1918-1958

2 Pandemics

triggered by new strains

10 Years 1959-69

2 Pandemics


34 Years 1970-2004

No new strains or

pandemic

10 Years 2005-2015

7 Pandemics




C O V E R S T O R Y

H1N1 IS not the only virus that has taken the world hostage. Every year, as the tempera-tures dip and the air becomes dry, new strains of flu viruses emerge.

The viruses that emerge with slight changes only cause seasonal flu. Since they have been circulating in the air for quite some time, most people are immune to them and medicines are readily available to tackle outbreaks they cause. There are others that emerge as novel strains and can have the ability to spread more quickly. They do not encounter the firewall of protection from pre-existing immunity in a person. Since no medicine is available to tackle them, a large section of the population is susceptible to it, resulting in pandemics.

Rise of novel virusesAccording to who, 5-10 per cent of adults and 20-30 per cent of children are infected by one form of flu or the other every year. Of late, more number of novel strains are causing epidemics. Every year, these epidemics result in three to five million cases of severe

illness, and 250,000-500,000 deaths worldwide. In a report in February, who states that an influenza pandemic is the most global of infectious disease events currently known.

Although we know the general mechanism by which new influenza viruses emerge, our basic knowledge of how these viruses acquire pandemic potential is rudimentary. So far, all we know is that at least 18 HA (haemagluttinin) and 11 NA (neuramin- idase) subtypes of viruses are circulating in the air, which can constantly reinvent themselves by exchanging genetic material. This process appears to be happening at an accelerated pace. Most of these novel strains are being churned out by animals and birds. Since the start of 2014, the World Organization for Animal Health, an inter-governmental body, has been notified of 41 outbreaks in birds involving seven different viruses in 20 countries in Africa, the Americas, Asia, Australia, Europe and West Asia.

Climatic conditions are exacerbating the problem. A study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2013 shows that the four recent human influenza pandemicsreported in 1918, 1957, 1968 and 2009were first identified in boreal spring or summer and were preceded by La Nia conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in the phase of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation have been shown to alter the migration, fitness and mixing of migratory birds with domestic animals. Thus, La Nia conditions bring divergent subtypes of flu virus together, leading to generation of novel strains.

Another study published in January 2013 issue of plos Currents suggests that warmer-than-average winters tend to lead to early and severe influenza seasons. In 2012-13, the influenza season had an unusually early and severe start in the US. An analysis of climate and past US influenza epidemic seasons indicated that warm winters tend to be followed by severe epidemics. Fewer people are infected with influenza during warm winters, thereby leaving an unnaturally large fraction of individuals susceptible to influenza in the next season. This can lead to early and severe epidemics, say the researchers. In the event of continued global warming, warm winters such as that of 2011-12 are expected to occur more frequently, they warn.

Global authorities are well aware of the situation

Unpredictable, prolific nature of flu virus is making it invincible

Mutant menace

private labs do not overcharge patients. Following this, Delhi capped the cost of swine flu test at ` 4,500. But pathologists say the cost could have been much lower. Most laboratories in Delhi have imported machines from the US-based Applied Biosystems and use its reagent kit; the cost of the test comes to nearly ` 1,900, says a pathologist of Ram Manohar Lohia hospital, nodal government hospital for swine flu in Delhi.

Director of Genome Diagnostics Pradeep Singhal says if indigenous technology is used, the cost can be reduced further. "We produced a kit in 2009, which worked on multiple machines and the test would not cost over `800," he says. Though the kit was validated by the Sanjay Gandhi Post Graduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, in 2009, it is yet to receive manufacturing licence from the Drugs Controller General of India. Singhal alleges that a lobby pushing the purchase of imported machines and kits is the reason indigenous kits are not being promoted.



C O V E R S T O R Y

but are far from tackling it. Vaccination is said to be one of the first steps towards preparing for an epidemic. To figure out which specific strains to target, over 100 countries study influenza trends and collaborate with who. Usually, they select three or four out of hundreds. Then, based on forecasts and a bit of luck, each country decides which strains to include in the next vaccination.

Prevention, the real cureBut vaccines have a problem. Since the 2004-05 flu season, US researchers estimate that the effectiveness of vaccines has reduced to 10-60 per cent. This could be because the genetic make-up and antigenic properties (proteins that activate the immune system) of viruses are changing. For example, since February 2014, the genetic make-up and antigenic properties of the H3N2 virus circulating in North America and Europe has changed. As a result, the effectiveness of the current seasonal vaccine in reducing influenza-related illnesses was only 23 per cent in the US.

In January this year, the Indian Medical Association mentioned in a press release that current seasonal influenza vaccines are not expected to provide protection against human infection with avian or swine influenza viruses. This calls for a need to develop more potent vaccines and shorten the production time. During a severe pandemic, many lives are lost in the three to four months that are needed to produce vaccines. Since current seasonal vaccines are ineffective against novel pandemic strains, recent efforts have focused on development of broadly protective or universal influenza virus vaccines that can provide immunity against seasonal flu as well as potential pandemic virus.

So, the best way is to prevent major outbreaks of influenza. And this requires understanding flu viruses

better. For instance, in August 2014 who introduced guidelines for prevention and control of influenza-like illnesses, suggesting that patients should be kept in isolation. However, the specific duration of infectious period for many types of flu, such as swine flu, is unknown. So there is no consensus on how long a patient should be kept in isolation.

Researchers of Columbia Universitys Mailman School of Public health are working on the prediction of influenza epidemics. We do real-time forecasts for over 100 cities in the US. In the future, we would like to expand this effort to other regions around the world, including India, says Yang. Forecasts, if reliable, would help public health sectors devise effective intervention measures to prevent the spread of the flu through efficient allocation of resources such as vaccines and antivirals, and better education of the public, he adds.

Rajib Dasgupta of jnu says effective communication is an important tool for reducing the impact of spread of infectious diseases, like the current spread of swine flu. Only messages about the spread of an infectious disease result in panic. So the government needs to actively engage with the affected population. This can be done by communication specialists who can design campaigns to tackle the panic, and ensure that no critical case is ignored. Unfortunately, Indias public health system does not involve communication specialists, says Dasgupta.

Conditioned by a nervous watch over the lethal H5N1 bird-flu virus in humans in 2003 and then the appearance of H1N1 virus in 2009, scientists are now alert and prepared. But they are more scared than ever. As the virus keeps mutating and evolving, the worst may still be out there. n

With inputs from Vibha Varshney

Due to the swine flu scare, the out patient department at

Ram Manohar Lohia hospital in Delhi has been flooded with about 500 patients every day,

much more than what the doctors can handle



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march31, 15 Down To Earth 33

Chaos in reforms

The TSR Subramanian

Committee report, meant to suggest

environmental governance reforms,

creates more confusion

SRESTHA BANERJEE | new delhi

E N V I R O N M E N T A L G O V E R N A N C E

TARIQUE / CSE


34-38Environmental governance.indd 34 09/03/15 12:23 PM

ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION in India is a runaway problem. There are plethora of laws and regulatory bodies, both at the Central and state

levels, to safeguard the environment. Yet the country continues to be burdened with pollution, its natural resources continue to be exploited and peoples participation in environmental management remains grossly inadequate. So in January 2015, when the Union Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (moef&cc) released its vision towards transparency and good governance, it rekindled hope among those demanding reforms in environment governance. The ministrys vision assured developing clear laws, firm rules and transparent processes to ensure a policy-based predictable regime. An analysis of the report, which will lay groundwork for this vision, shows that moef&cc may not realise this vision.

Prepared by a High Level Committee of moef&cc, chaired by former Cabinet secretary T S R Subramanian, the report was to review and suggest amendments to six cornerstone laws: the Indian Forest Act of 1927, the Wildlife (Protection) Act of 1972, the Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act of 1974, the Forest Conservation Act of 1980, the Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act of 1981 and the Environment (Protection) Act of 1986. Submitted to the ministry in November 2014, the report is being evaluated by stakeholders and the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Science and Technology, Environment and Forests. Analysis of the report shows that it has largely become a document about project clearances and approvals. Instead of dealing with nuances and complexities of environmental governance, the committee

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