Mapping Globalization

1

 2. [After Fr. global.] Pertaining to or embracing the totality of a number of items, categories, etc.; comprehensive, all-inclusive, unified; total; spec. pertaining to or involving the whole world; world-wide; universal. 1892 Harper's Mag. Sept. 492/2 M. de Vogüé loves travel; he goes to the East and to the West for colors and ideas; his interests are as wide as the universe; his ambition, to use a word of his own, is to be ‘global’. 1927 Contemp. Rev. Aug. 241 The essence of the American proposal therefore was its ‘global’ criterion. 1928 Times 1 Oct. 14/1 The proposal for a readjustment of tonnage proportions within the global limits originally proposed by the United States. Ibid., The original French proposal was for global tonnage. 1928 John o' London's 24 Nov. 252/1 Adding figures of commerce and foreign investments..so as to show to-day's global contacts. 1943 Air Force Feb. 22 (title) Guides for global war. Ibid., In this global war they [sc. maps] are vital to airmen. 1943 Ann. Reg. 1942 283 The hard lesson of modern global warfare. 1944 Amer. Speech XIX. 137 Its extremely healthy global attitude (‘Linguistic isolationism..will be regarded as..outmoded and ridiculous..’). 1946 J. S. HUXLEY Unesco i. 8 A scientific world humanism, global in extent and evolutionary in background. 1948 Ann. Reg. 1947 14 The global sum of £300 million looked like the result of bargaining with the Treasury. 1951 Sun (Baltimore) 7 Jan. 2/6 American ‘global bombers’ giant B-36's which can carry an atom bomb 10,000 miles. 1952 Brit. Jrnl. Psychol. May 101 There are..other and more satisfactory objective methods for investigating..the temperamental and general behavioural traits... A ‘global’ picture can be obtained from the use of such techniques as Rorschach or T.A.T. 1957 Economist 12 Oct. (Suppl.) 17, 10 days of global cruising. 1959 P. H. SPAAK Why Nato? iv. 30 The allies could only meet the global challenge of the Soviet Union with a global retort. 1970 Sci. Jrnl. Apr. 52/3 The meteorological global telecommunications system required poses a second major problem in the development of an effective system of global numerical weather prediction.

What does globalization mean?What does the OED say?

2

What does Smith say?It is the great multiplication of all the productions of the

different arts in consequence of the division of labor, which occasions, in a well governed society, that universal opulence which extends itself to the lowest ranks of the people. Every workman has a great quantity of how own work to dispose of beyond what he himself has occasion for; and every other workman being exactly in the same situation, he is enabled to exchange a great quantity of how own goods for a great quantity of theirs. He supplies them abundantly with what they have occasion for, and they accommodate him as amply with what he has occasion for, and a general plenty diffuses itself through all the different ranks of society…

The discovery of America, and that of a passage to the East Indies by the Cape of Good Hope, are the two greatest and most important events recorded in the history of mankind. …By uniting, in some measure, the most distant parts of the world, by enabling them to relieve one another's wants, to increase one another's enjoyments, and to encourage one another's industry, their general tendency would seem to be beneficial. To the natives however, both of the East and West Indies, all the commercial benefits which can have resulted from those events have been sunk and lost in the dreadful misfortunes which they have occasioned. …. Hereafter, perhaps, the natives of those countries may grow stronger, or those of Europe may grow weaker, and the inhabitants of all the different quarters of the world may arrive at that equality of courage and force which, by inspiring mutual fear, can alone overawe the injustice of independent nations into some sort of respect for the rights of one another.

The Wealth of Nations 3

Marx?Globalization] has given a cosmopolitan character to

production and consumption in every country….it has drawn from under the feet of industry the national ground on which it stood. All old-established national industries have been destroyed or are daily being destroyed. They are dislodged by new industries, whose introduction becomes a life and death question for all civilized nations, by industries that no longer work up indigenous raw material, but raw material drawn from the remotest zones; industries whose products are consumed, not only at home, but in every quarter of the globe. In place of the old wants, satisfied by the production of the country, we find new wants, requiring for their satisfaction the products of distant lands and climes. In place of the old local and national seclusion and self-sufficiency, we have intercourse in every direction, universal inter-dependence of nations. And as in material, so also in intellectual production. The intellectual creations of individual nations become common property. National one-sidedness and narrow-mindedness become more and more impossible, and from the numerous national and local literatures, there arises a world literature.

[It] draws all, even the most barbarian, nations into civilization. The cheap prices of commodities are the heavy artillery with which it forces the barbarians' intensely obstinate hatred of foreigners to capitulate. It compels all nations, on pain of extinction, to adopt the bourgeois mode of production; it compels them to introduce what it calls civilization into their midst, i.e., to become globalized themselves. In one word, it creates a world after its own image.

4

Articles on Globalization

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1990 1995 1999 2001 2003 2004

How Much Do We Know?

5

Globalization Remains a Black Box

•Theory raced ahead of evidence•Entrenched theoretical and public policy debates:

• Is it good or bad?•Consequently:

–Failure to understand the structure of globalization–Failure to analyze interaction dynamics–Failure to foresee unintended consequences, crises, “normal accidents”, systemic malfunctions

6

Globalization is not new• Out of Africa•Alexander•Roman Empire• Islam•Silk Road•Mongol•Black Death•“Discovery”•Slave Trade•Empire•War

7

8

Globalization is not new•Our project has created an archive of maps

•http://qed.princeton.edu/main/MG/Maps/CQ

•http://qed.princeton.edu/qed.php/MG/Maps

9

What About Contemporary Globalization?

10

One illustration of what it “looks” like

http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=G1L4GUA8arY&feature=related

11

Looking inside the black box:Connecting vectors

• Commerce• Services• Capital• Migration• Culture• Communications and

Transport structures

12

How are these linked?

• Causal order?– Which comes

first?– Universal

pattern?– Consistent in

history?– Serendipity?

13

What is a Complex System

• “…is one whose evolution is very sensitive to initial conditions or to small perturbations, one in which the number of independent interacting components is large, or one in which there are multiple pathways by which the system can evolve” (Whitesides and Ismagilov)

14

Complex System

• Not simply complicated

• Critical aspects is interdependence----”the sum is greater than its parts”– e.g. stock market,

ecological systems

15

Complex Behavior

• Emergent rather than planned

• Self organized• Feedback loops

16

Not random

• Appears as random, but underlying rules

• Spectrum of randomness and determinism

• Sensitive dependence----change across time

• Cognitive/analytically impossible to predict

17

Unstable equilibrium

• Small changes can bring huge consequences

• Non-linear coupling• Nested systems

18

Our Model: Globalization as a Complex Network

19

What are networks?: OED•  1. Work (esp. manufactured work) in which threads, wires, etc.,

are crossed or interlaced in the fashion of a net; freq. applied to light fabric made of threads intersecting in this way.

•  2. a. A piece of work having the form or construction of a net; an arrangement or structure with intersecting lines and interstices resembling those of a net.

•     d. An extended array of atoms bonded together in a crystalline or other substance; spec. a structure in a glass in which atoms of silicon and/or another element are linked in a three-dimensional array by oxygen atoms.

• 3. A chain or system of interconnected immaterial things. • 4. a. Any netlike or complex system or collection of interrelated

things, as topographical features, lines of transportation, or telecommunications routes (esp. telephone lines).

•  b. An interconnected group of people; an organization; spec. a group of people having certain connections (freq. as a result of attending a particular school or university) which may be exploited to gain preferment, information, etc., esp. for professional advantage.

20

What is a Network?

• Pattern of identifiable relations…– ….linking social units…– …that can account for

the behavior of those involved.

• What kinds of things do they do?– Access – Opportunity– Mobilize– Diffuse ideas and

patterns21

Types of Networks

22

Differences in Power?•What is the “Best” Network?

•Dense and overlapping•Linking to distant networks with…•Non-redundant contacts•Network position both empowers and constrains

•What is the “Best” Position in a Network?

•Structurally autonomous•Filling structural holes•Centrality•Resource control•External monitoring

23

Proposed: Network of Transactions • Link disparate actors (nodes)

around the globe– Actors can be:

» People» Cities» Countries» Organizations

– Measured as:» Trade» capital transfers» treaties» travel» collaborations» communication

24

Transactional Data?

25

Some Forms of Globalization

26

Phone Traffic in 1995

27

25 % of World Air Traffic

50% of World Air Traffic

28

29

Alliances

Source: Paulette Lloyd

30

Some Detail About Trade

31

Net Map of Trade

32

1980

Trade Structure with links >=0.1% of Total Trade Value

33

2001

34

Concentration of World Trade

1980

2001

35

The Americas

1980 200136

AfricaAfrica

1980 2001

37

MENA

38

Asia

39

Argentina

Belarus

Belgium-Luxembourg

Brazil

CanadaChina Colombia

Costa Rica

Croatia

Czech Rep.

Denmark

France

GermanyGuatemala

Italy

J apan

Malaysia

Mexico

Netherlands

Norway

Russian Federation

Singapore

Slovakia

Slovenia

Sweden

United Kingdom

USA

Venezuela

Other Network Models of Trade

40

ALB

ALG

AND

ARGAUS

AUT

AZE

BLR

BEL

BOL

BRA

BGR

CMRCANCHL

CHN

COL

CRI

CROCYP

CZE

DNKECU

EGY

EST

ETH

FAE

FIN

FRA

GER

GRC

GTM

HNDHUN

ICE

IND

IDN

IRN

IRL

ISR

ITA

IVO

J PN

J OR

KEN

KGZLVA

LBN

LTU

MDG

MWI

MYS

MDVMLT

MUS

MEX

MNG

MOR NPL

NTH

NZL

NICNGA

NOROMN

PAK

PAN

PNG

PER PHL

POL

PRT

QAT

KOR

MDA

ROM

RUS

SAU

SEN

SGP

SVKSVN

SAFSPA

SWE

SWI

TAI

MACTHA

TUN

TUR

GBR

URY

USA

VEN

VNM

ZMB

Other Network Models of Trade

41

Mapping Trade

http://etc.princeton.edu:8080/

maptrade/

42

Consequences of Trade Network

Is it all networks?Is network position destiny?No… it also matters:

•How wealth is distributed internally

•What you sell to the world

43

44

y = 3.0415x + 608.24R² = 0.1599

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

HD

I

Trade/GDP

HDI and Trade

Wellbeing and Trade

45

y = -0.8436x + 440.93R² = 0.0324

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Gin

i

Trade/GDP

Trade and Equality

Trade and Equality

46

Types of Trade

47

y = 1.244x + 383.64R² = 0.0321

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00

GIN

I

Primary export/GDP

Chart Title

Inequality and Type of Trade

48

Wellbeing and Type of Trade

49

Is it good to be global?

Right network position

Equal

Make and sell something to the world

50