Mapping and Modelling ecosystem services - Uni Kiel · Economic value • Evaluation of policy...

Mapping and Modelling ecosystem services

��

��

With contributions of: Derek van Berkel, Wieteke Willemen, Diego Valbuena

Challenges for ecosystem services research

• Quantification and mapping……..

• Modelling……….

• Communicating anddiscussing………….

Methods depend on scaleLocal scale:Direct observation/measurement of land function indicators

(actual provision of goods/services)-tourists recreational function-species (agro)biodiversity-water regulation peak flow measurements etc.

Regional/continental scale:Use of location factors/proxies to determine land functions

-beach recreational function-agricultural intensity agro-biodiversity

Quantification and mapping

Socio-economic properties

Biophysical properties

Landscape configuration

Land use/cover

Service provision

Socio-economic properties

Biophysical properties

Landscape configuration

Land use/cover

Service provision

Quantification and mapping: regional scale

Tourism function Variable Beta estim ate

SD Variation coefficien

t

VIF

Intercept 1.3576 0.3103 0.23

Agriculture 500m (%) -0.0195 0.0031 -0.16 2.19

Distance to highway (m)

0.0001 0.0000 0.29 1.37

Distance to nature >1km2 (m)

-0.0002 0.0001 -0.30 2.17

Distance to swimming location

-0.0001 0.0000 -0.19 1.25

Local roads 500 m (%) 0.0388 0.0037 0.09 1.17

Openness (m) -0.0004 0.0000 -0.10 1.16

Nature 500m (%) -0.0578 0.0048 -0.08 7.91

Clustered nature 5km (%)

0.0247 0.0039 0.16 2.83

Accessible nature, 500m (%)

0.0242 0.0039 0.16 6.44

Ugly elements, 500m (%)

-0.0343 0.0087 -0.26 1.09

Tourism accomodation

Willemen et al.,2008. Landscape and urban planning


Int. livestockLeisureResidentialPlant habitatTourismArable prod.Cult. heritageSummed capacity of landscape

functions (0-3)Number of functions

Func

tion

capa

city

Multifunctionality: increase of total capacity to provide

goods and services

Multifunctionality: decrease of capacity

per landscape function

Willemen et al., 2009 (Ecological Indicators)


Service supply Economic value

• Evaluation of policy plans and development trends • Mapping changes in service supply and value (market price)

between 2000 - 2015


��

Service demand

Regional level

Max. service supply

Service supply

Local level

Land management

Landscape properties

Management unit level

Regional service supply

Max. regional service supply

Options for land management

Landscape functions

Fulfillment of demand

TotalDecision maker choices Total

Management effects

Willemen et al., in review

Stat

e an

d ch

ange

in s

ervi

ce p

rovi

sion

Ove

r 15

year

s

�� ! �� "

94

96

98

100

102

90 110 130 150 170 190

Plant habitat (index)

Ara

ble

prod

uctio

n (in

dex)

94

96

98

100

102

95 105 115 125 135 145

Arable production (index)

Cul

tura

l her

itage

(ind

ex)

Willemen et al., in review

Approach based on location factors and proxies of landscape functions

• Define which land cover types and landscape conditions ‘support’ ecosystem services (empirical analysis based on proxies or expert judgement)

• Map spatial distribution of ecosystem services

Kienast et al., 2009. Environmental ManagementVan Berkel and Verburg, submitted

Quantification and mapping: European scale

�#��$�� %��

Territorial capital Spatial characteristics Spatial proxiesSupply of ‘Sun, sand and sea

Biophysical conditions Coastal areas, beaches, temperature

Tourist infrastructure Coastal camping sites

Supply of winter tourism attractions

Posit ive biophysical conditions Winter precipitation, temperature topography Accessibility Travel t ime from urban centres and transport hubs Non- aesthetically pleasing landscapes

Open agricultural lands

Supply of attractions for camping tourism

Biophysical conditions Water bodies, forests, landscape variation (topography), limited human disturbance associated with tranquility (Forest, mosaic, agricultural and peri-urban landscapes)

Policy instruments Protected areas, Natura2000 sites

Tourist attractions UNESCO sites, Natural monuments (IUCN), High nature value farmland – cultural heritage attraction

Symbolic capital Local cooperative networks (PPP)

Protection designation of origin (PDO)

NGO operation and cooperation LEADER areas

LegendFunctionVALUE

Low

Moderate

High

Tourism function

Van Berkel and Verburg, subm.

Quantification and mapping: European scale, expert based

ExpertExpert

LegendFunctionVALUE

Low

Moderate

High

StatisticalStatistical

Tourism function

Van Berkel and Verburg, subm.

Quantification and mapping: European scale, statistical

&�� '�� #��

Land cover changesimulation

Ecosystem serviceassessment

Scenario

Modelling………….

Mostly based on land cover modellingEcosystem service change is analyzed as effect of land cover change

Global models Regional models Indicator models Ecosystem services

Modelling….a multi-scale, multi-model approach

Verburg et al, 2008. Annals of Regional ScienceVerburg and Overmars, 2009. Landscape Ecology

CLUE-Scanner

http://www.cluemodel.nl/clue.html

Carbon sequestration

2000 2030 Reference 2030 Biofuel policies

CurrentC-sequestration

LULUFC

Method based on:

Schulp et al., 2008 Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment

CLUE-Scanner

Most models treat ecosystem services as an indicator of land cover change

Few models represent demand for non-commodity services explicitly (demand/supply relations needed)

Model development, calibration and validation is difficult due to limited observations of ecosystem service changes

( ��) * ��

Trade-off analysis

+�� ) *��$��

Change in ecosystem services 2000-2015

Plant habitat change

Arable production change

+�� ) *��$��

Increase

Decrease

Willemen, Hein, Verburg, subm.

A visualization of land abandonment for a case study area in Northern Portugal

+�� ) *��

Van Berkel, Ribeiro, Lovett and Verburg, in prep.

Current situation

Scenario: continuation of abandonment

Van Berkel, Ribeiro et al., in prep.

Scenario: rural development, multifunctionality

Van Berkel, Ribeiro et al., in prep.

��

• No single method is perfect, portfolio approach needed to deal with multiple scales and sectors (Young et al., Ecol Soc 2006)

• Different scales require different methods• Analysis needs to be cross-scale: top-down and bottom-up

• Move from land cover to land function (ecosystem goods and services)

• Modelling is just a tool...... …..to help testing our understanding of the land system…..to help answer specific questions…..comparison of model representation and reality is needed to learn…….

Thank [email protected] for Environmental StudiesVU University Amsterdamhttp://www.ivm.vu.nl

mailto:[email protected]

-�� %�.��

Van de Steeg, Verburg et al. 2010. Applied Geography

Quantification and mapping

Monetary valuation vs. service supply-one consistent measure versus different units and measures

Aggregate scale (administrative units?) vs. mapping

Land functions

Climate

DemographicCharacteristics

and demandLocation

characteristics

Land use and land cover

Modelling….a multi-agent approach

Winterswijk municipality, the Netherlands

Ecosystem services:-Agricultural production-Recreation/tourism-Cultural heritage-Landscape aesthetics-(agro)Biodiversity-Residential area (rural living)

+��/��

Valbuena et al., 2010. Landscape Ecology


Agents’ decision‐making

Land-use pattern

Social networks & institutions

Regional scale

Policies & subsidiesExternal factors

DemandAdvice

Feedback

Options

Actions

Decisions

Internal factors

Feedback

Farm scale

Willingness

Ability

Valbuena et al., Landsc. Ecol., 2010


Agent typology

Valbuena, Verburg, Bregt, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 2008

( ��) *�� $��

�� modelled• Farm expansion• Land abandonment• Management of treelines/hedgerows

2000

2030

( ��) *�� $��

Current situation

Landscape types

Future result

Mapping and Modelling ecosystem services - Uni Kiel · Economic value • Evaluation of policy...

Documents

Transcript of Mapping and Modelling ecosystem services - Uni Kiel · Economic value • Evaluation of policy...