Manpower planning in progress · Manpower planning in progress How Indonesia's water supply sector...

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Human Resources Development

CASE STUDY

Manpowerplanning in

progress

WHO/CWS/89.13original: English

distr: limited

Manpowerplanning in

progressHow Indonesia's water supplysector forecasts its manpower

needs using only one variable.

Z'

A HumanResourcesDevelopmentCase StudyNo: 6 in a series

ForewordThe World Health Organization (WHO) and the

Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA) arejointly producing a thematic series of case studiesfocussing on Human Resources Development.

Our intention is to both illustrate and documentvarious methods, used in different parts of the world,which aim at improving human performance.

Activities and projects selected for this series are allof an innovative nature. They show that there are usuallya variety of methods other than classical classroom trainingto help people do their jobs better.

While country reports and project descriptions arecommon, one seldom finds detailed descriptions oftechniques used. "What was done?" is answered moreoften than "How was it done?" In this series of case studieswe aim to provide the reader with a total perspective ofwhat was done, how it was done, why it was done and anassessment of its effectiveness.

These collected experiences should give the readerideas, which can be adapted to improve other activitiesand projects in his or her own environment. We believethis series will be a source of inspiration for action anddeliberate change.

This specific case study was selected by the WHO'SRegional Office for South East Asia which submitted a textwritten by Dr Wilfredo L. Reyes. Additional informationwas gathered during a field visit to Indonesia in March1988. Interviews with government officials and consultantsand other written material also form the basis of the text.We thank everyone for their assistance.

Alice Petren, 3 April 1989

This document is not issued to the generalpublic, and all rights are reserved by the WorldHealth Organization (WHO). The document maynot be reviewed, abstracted, quoted,reproduced or translated in part or in whole,without the prior written permission of WHO. Nopart of this document may be stored in a retrievalsystem or transmitted in any form or by anymeans- electronic, mechanical or other withoutth© prior written permission of WHO.

The views expressed in documents bynamed authors are solely the responsibility ofthese authors.

Ce document n'est pas destine d Stredistribue au grand public et tous les droits yafferents sont reserves par I'Organisationmondiale de la Sante (OMS). II ne peut etrecommente, resume, cite, reproduit ou traduit,partiellement ou en totalite, sans uneautorisation prealable ecrite de I'OMS. Aucunepartie ne doit etre chargee dans un systemede recherche documentaire ou diffusee sousquelque moyen que ce soit - electronique,mecanique, ou autre - sans I'autorlsationprealable ecrite de I'OMS,

Les opinions exprimees dans lesdocuments par des auteurs cites nommementn'engagent que lesdits auteurs.

ContentsSummary: Planning

relies on simple method 6

Growth limited to urban areas 8

Planners decide on single variable 10

Training needs examined 14

Plan of action for rural areas 16

Lessons learned 18

Additional information 20

Other case studies 24

Summary

Planningrelies on

simplemethod

Planning based on houseconnections

Indonesia has witnessed a rapid growth ofwater supply schemes in the 1980's. It realized at anearly stage that these newly constructed systemswould not function effectively unless manpowerand training needs were catered for, The countryhad already experienced many shortcomings inthe water supply sector due to lack of skilledmanpower and technical expertise, A way to tacklethese problems would be to systematically plan forhuman resources development.

Contrary to what is done in many othercountries, Indonesian planners started by askingthemselves certain questions:

• How many people will Indonesia need toservice the growing number of houseconnections?

• What will the staff need to know?

• When and where will staff be needed?

• What are the training needs and how shallthese be met?

• What is all this going to cost?The manpower planning strategy which was

subsequently developed Included a broad analysisof staffing requirements, It also dealt with what typeof organization the cities would need to cope witha growing amount of clients. On a national level,the country designed a standard organizationalstructure and staffing pattern for each city's waterenterprise.

The manpower planning method used byIndonesian cities today is based on one singlevariable — house connections. Earlier planningattempts included several different variables, butthis had proved to be too demanding, Over theyears, Indonesian planners have discovered that Itis more important to have a practical and easyplanning tool rather than something whichdemands tremendous efforts. For good planning itis essential that the procedure be easy enough toallow for continuous revision.

The Indonesian manpower plans have proved

6 MANPOWER PLANNING IN PROGRESS

to be useful in several ways. While they have notaccurately projected future requirements, theyhave at least given indications about the overalldirection of staff development. National plans havebeen based on provincial data and this has meantthat provinces and local government have had toget involved and take responsibility for planningand implementation. This has stimulatedcommunication between national and localgovernment.

The manpower plans have also served asproposals for soliciting funds in order to realize theplanned development. The World Bank, the Dutchgovernment and private consultants have assistedthe country in forecasting Its needs, and have alsoassisted in financing training,

Every country faces the choice of making noplans at all, some simple plans or producing moresophisticated ones. Many countries choose theeasiest way — that of not making any plans,Indonesia initially started off with devisingcomplicated plans but has now got to the stagewhere it believes planning can be simple andongoing.

Some would say why plan if you are not goingto be particularly accurate? The question can alsobe turned around — why not start, get going andaccept a process of trial and error which may endup as something better? •

Overall direction of staffdevelopment

Proposals for funding

MANPOWER PLANNING IN PROGRESS 7

Setting the scene

Growthlimited

to urbanareas

Economic constraints

The massive expansion of the water supplysector has been most remarkable in the urbanareas, Indonesia has been working hard to reachthe target it has set Itself - by 1994, 75% of theurban population should have access to cleanwater supply, half of them via house connections,the other half by public hydrants.

Of the money allocated to developing thewater sector, some 90% has been spent on urbanprojects. Rural areas have so far been quiteneglected but have been given a higher priorityin the current five-year plan.

The expanded water sector is a result ofambitious plans and a prosperous economy basedon oil export incomes. But, just as high oil pricesearlier allowed for rapid expansion, the fall of the oilprice has slowed the speed In which the Indonesianwater supply sector can now grow.

The flourishing past has been replaced by amore severe economic climate, and plans aretherefore more modest as the oil price continues tobe depressed. Nevertheless, Indonesia continuesto plan for new construction and Improved services.

Initially, during the five-year plan ending inMarch 1989, construction plans for urban areasproposed an increase in house connections fromapproximately one million to three million. Now,having come to the end of that five-year period, Itis clear that all the plans have not materialized dueto economic constraints. Diminishing incomes havenot allowed for the projected 200% increase inhouse connections, However, house connectionshave doubled as have the number of public tapsand production capacity.

In this atmosphere of change, it has beennecessary to not only plan for construction but alsoconsider other aspects of development such ashuman resources development. •


loafer tower in Sigli, North Sumatra. The early1980's saw Indonesia's water supply sector growrapidly — most notably in the urban areas.Planning for staff increases and training thereforebecame urgent.


Part 1

Plannersdecide

on singlevariable

Government survey

The method presently used to forecastmanpower requirements in the Indonesian urbanwater supply sector is related to one factor — thenumber of house connections. The calculationmethod is not sophisticated, but for that reasonmay be all the better, it is something which almostanybody can use. The simplicity of the method hasallowed planners to continously revise forecasts,

Experience in Indonesia has shown that moreadvanced models tend to require time and skillswhich the country does not have. Earlier attemptsto produce manpower plans involved manyadditional factors. One factor was, for example,pipe lengths. The number of people required to laypipes, maintain them etc., had to be calculated.The use of several variables proved to be unwieldy.Besides being time-consuming and thusdemanding, there were no adequate data onsuch things as pipe conditions.

The planners concluded that the number ofhouse connections was the factor which mostinfluenced the work load. A large part of a waterenterprise'sworkrelatestodeallng with complaints,meter reading, billing and collection. The amountof work involved in carrying out these tasks is directlyrelated to the number of house connections. Also,data on house connections are easily available,which was important for the planners.

Having decided that the number of houseconnections would form the basis for forecastingmanpower requirements, the Indonesiangovernment carried out a survey to get a picture ofthe situation in the field. Information submitted bylocal government structures included the following:

1. Existing number of house connections In eachprovince

2. Type of system used by the water enterprise andits production capacity

3. Number of employees and their qualifications

By analyzing and discussing the data, it waspossible to calculate what an individual water


enterprise would need in terms of staff. A staffingpattern was adopted indicating the number ofemployees needed in a water enterprise in relationto its house connections. It was assumed that ifthere were less than 2,000 house connections thewater enterprise would need 15 employees per1,000 house connections. In larger enterpriseseconomies of scale would apply thus reducing thenumber of staff per 1,000 house connections.

Number of houseconnections:

Less than 2, 0002, 000 - 7, 5007, 500 - 20, 000More than 20, 000

Employees per1000 connections:

15121010

Assuming that there are five users to eachhouse connection in Indonesia, there would be 60employees for a population of 25,000 people orone employee to 416 people served. This can becompared to a study by the International WaterSupply Association of some European cities in theearly 1980's which showed the following staffingratios:

Employees to population served

Copenhagen, Denmark 1: 1,350Wessex, England 1: 1,500Hamburg, Germany 1: 1,550Bordeaux, France 1: 1,750Madrid, Spain 1:2,200

The standardized staff ing pattern in Indonesiamade it easy to forecast staffing needs. First itwould give manpower needs on a province toprovince level in accordance with the expectedincrease in house connections. Once provincialdemands were defined, it was easy to summarize

Staffing pattern adopted

European cities


Manpower figures for theprovince of West Java

and plan the staff requirements for the whole urbanwater supply sector. Provincial figures were simplyadded up to get the national projection.

The tables below give figures for the provinceof West Java.

Beginning 1985: Current situationHouse Water Number ofconnections enterprises employees

Under 2,000 52,000 - 7,500 117,500 - 20,000 5Over 20,000 2

Total house connections: 207,900Total staff: 2,138Staff/population ratio: 1:466

End 1989: Projected needs

House Waterconnections enterprises

Under 2,000 -2,000 - 7,500 27,500 - 20,000 9Over 20,000 13

126630626756

Number ofemployees

1641,0644,014

Total house connections: 532,300Total staff: 5,242Staff/population ratio: 1:507

Thus, in West Java it was calculated that thestaff would have to increase from 2,138 in 1985 to5,242 in 1989, if house connections increased asprojected. This meant a doubling of staff to keepwater facilities operating and maintained in aproper way.


For Indonesia as a whole the figures wereeven more dramatic. According to the five yearplan, house connections would go from a million in1985 to three million in 1989. Thus, water enterprisestaff would increase from 16,000 to 40,000 in fiveyears .

Those who planned in 1985, during moreprosperous days, were far too optimistic about thedevelopment of the Indonesian water supply sectorin the latter part of the decade. For 1987/88, officialfigures show house connections were still only1,350,000 and that 18,340 people were operatingthese. Efficiency has not been raised as staffnumbers remain high — there is one employee toevery 368 persons served. Changed economicconditions in the country slowed down the previouslyvery rapid expansion. •

Large staff increases

The manpower plans developed in Indonesiahighlighted the need for training. Waterenterprise staff needed both more theory andpractical guidance.


Part 2

Trainingneeds

examined

Cost of training

Hav ing arrived at a figure of how manypeople will be needed, additional questions arise.What sort of qualifications do the employees need?What sort of training should they undergo to beable to perform their tasks? What will training cost?How and where can training take place? How willit be funded?

On a national level, the Ministry of PublicWorks analyzed the different tasks for each jobwithin the water enterprises and formulated fairlydetailed job descriptions, Using this information,Indonesia set up a standardized organizationalchart for the country's water enterprises.

The job descriptions were later elaborated onin connection with the design of a trainingprogramme in North Sumatra — the 11 CitiesOrganization-Management-Training project (seeCase Study No: 2 in this series).

The examination of the organizational structureled to the identification of a number of key jobholders who it would be appropriate to train. Theywere selected not only because they would needto have certain knowledge and skills, but alsobecause they would be in a position to pass thetraining on to others in the work place.

Job titles were listed and multiplied by thenumber of water enterprises in Indonesia. TheIndonesian government decided to apply thetraining programme designed for North Sumatra. Itindicated the number of weeks of training requiredfor each job title (see table opposite).

Based on experiences in North Sumatra thecost of the training could be estimated. Excludingtravelling, one week's training was estimated In1985 to cost about US $ 122 (200,000 Rupiah). Thetraining for those mentioned in the table oppositewould amount to 1.4 million Rupiah and for allgroups inc luded in the human resourcesdevelopment plan 6.8 million Rupiah. Job holderslike government officials, leakage controllers,treatment plant operators and pipelayers werealso included in the manpower plan.


Indonesia has been able to profit economicallyfrom having made manpower forecasts. The plansas such have been used as proposals to obtainmoney for undertaking the manpowerdevelopment. The manpower forecasts have thusboth indicated the direction for future activities,and also paved the way for implementing theplans. •

Job title

DirectorHead of Techn. Dept.Head of Finance/Adm.Head of ProductionHead of PlanningHead of MaintenanceHead of CashHead of Bookkeeping

Total to betrained

285285285285285285285285

Head of Consumer Contacts 285Head of Adm./Personnel

TOTAL

285

2,850

Weeks pertrainee

4422222222

n/a

Total manweeks

1,1401,140

570570570570570570570570

6,840


Part 3

Plan ofaction

for ruralareas

Need for critical action

Methods for planning manpower needs inrural areas arestillatan early stage, Up until recently,not much money or effort has been invested indeveloping water sources for the rural population.Little effort has therefore gone into planning forrural staff. Manpower planning is still based on arange of variables and involves many calculations.It is most likely that these methods will be simplifiedas has been the case in urban planning,

The starting point for the rural planningprocedure is a set of objectives and a list of activitiesto fulfill these. For each objective the most importantand critical action is selected. The Indonesianexample looks like this:

Objective:

Critical action:

Provision of clean water for100 % of rural population

Construct water supplyscheme

Based on experience and approximations,the time required for a sanitarian to perform certaintasks has been identified. To construct a shallowwell with hand pump, a sanitarian would need234.4 hours. For a deep well with hand pump hewould need 181.8 hours.

Another factor involved in this estimation is theneed for critical action. For example, how manyshallow wells do we need? How many people willeach serve? How many people do we have toserve? And so on.

Still another variable identified is the currentwork tempo and the desired one for the future.Through time-studies, the planners have calculatedthat in a normal working day 30% of the time isspent on the critical activity, 35% on performingother tasks necessary to running the water servicesand the remaining 35% on just waiting or arrangingprivate affairs.

As the plans are based partly onapproximations and include several variables, they


are fairly uncertain. Planning is by definitionuncertain and the approximations add to that In-built uncertainty. For this reason four differentprojections have been produced. In eachprojection the value of one of the variables wasassumed to have changed. One of the two forecastsin the middle was selected as being the mostrealistic. The projection, made in 1984, shows aneed for about 22,000 sanitarians before the year2000. It is readily apparent that the rural manpowerplanning method is fairly impractical, while theurban one In all Its simplicity shows an attempt tomake some sort of diagnosis. •

Water supply to the ruralareas has so far beenquite neglected but hasnow been given a higherpriority in the current five-year plan.

Plans fairly unclear


For the future

Lessonslearned

y Simple planning methods attract more users.The Indonesian lesson isthatthesimplerthe method,the better. More sophisticated calculations tend tobe once-off attempts at forecasting future needsand are rarely revised or repeated. For this reasonthey are not particularly useful. Indonesia like manyother countries does not have the funds to set up abig planning apparatus, but has still found a way toget an idea about the future.

> A simple plan is better than no plan at all.Even though the Indonesian calculations have notbeen entirely accurate, they have provided someindications about the future, With some idea abouthow the urban water sector staff would develop,the government continued its analysis by tacklingthe issue of preparing the staff. This way it couldestimate the cost of future development.

y Plans can be used for fundraising. By havingplans for an Increase in house connections and aconsequent increase in staff to install and operatethese, Indonesia has been able to get financialassistance for developing the water supply sector.With a plan In hand, it Is possible to demonstrate topotential funders a will for change andimprovement.

9- Manpower planning allows for analysis oftraining needs. After having forecast how manypeople will be needed, and what knowledge andskills they will require to perform their tasks, it ispossible to determine actual training needs.

y Decentralized planning activity increasesresponsibility. In Indonesia each province mustprovide a forecast for the coming years. This forcesthem to analyze the present status and take someresponsibility for future events.


* Communication is encouraged bydecentralized planning. In Indonesia, the provincesprovide their estimates, which then form the basisof the national forecast. This supports andencourages dialogue between national andprovincial levels of management.

y Continuity is a key element. The five-yearplan for staffing in the water supply sector inIndonesia is continuously adjusted. This is easy asthe method is simple to apply. In recent years, planshave been far too optimistic in projecting thenumber of trainees which would need to beprepared. •


Water enterprises in IndonesiaDistribution of employees according to size of enterprise

Situation mid-1985

8000 -Numb 7000 -er

o 6000 -f

Em 5000 -P10

y 4000 -eeS

/ 3000 -Cate 2000 -gory 1000 -

No. of Employees = 16,200

3075(19%)

3783(23%)

2584(16%)

6375(42%)

0 2,000 7,500 > 20,000- 2,000 - 7,500 - 20,000

Size Category of Water Enterprise (House Conenctions)


Number

EmP1oyees/CateSory

Water enterprises in IndonesiaDistribution of employees according to size of enterprise

Forecast situation mid-1989

18000 -

16000 -

o 14000f

12000 -

10000 -

8000 -

6000 -

4000 -

2000 -

No. of Employees = 33,300

1700(2%);

16,850(50%)

0- 2,000

2,000- 7,500

7,500- 20,000

> 20,000

Size Category of Water Enterprise (House Connections)


Number

of

EnterP

ises

Category

Water enterprises in IndonesiaDistribution of water enterprises according to size

Situation mid-1985

160 -

140 -

120 -

100 -

80 -

60 -

40 -

20 -

151(60%)

no. of Enterprises = 251

15(6%) 9(4%)

0 2,000 7,500- 2,000 - 7,500 - 20,000

> 20,000



Number

of

EnterPrises/Category

Water enterprises in IndonesiaDistribution of water enterprises according to size

Forecast situation mid-1989

160 -

140 -

120 -

100 -

80 -

60 -

40 -

20 -

No. of enterprises = 285

127<44X)

0 2,000 7,500 > 20,000- 2,000 - 7,500 --20,000



Some titlesin this series of

Human ResourcesDevelopment

case studies

Managing the managersHow the Philippines Local Water UtilitiesAdministration monitors and supports GeneralManagers of 350 Water Districts scattered allover the country.

Job descriptions prove their worthHow a training package was developed duringan Organization—Management—TrainingProject for 11 Indonesian cities and is nowbeing applied nationwide.

Training programme gets a new profileHow the Water Resources Institute in Tanzaniareshaped its curricula to meet the country'sneed for skilled technicians,

Strategic planning workshop setsproject on its feetHow a workshop in Tanzania constituted theturning point for Implementing a Health-Sanitation—Water programme.

People in focusHow the Brazilian water and sanitationcompany SANEPAR achieved success byputting its staff and customers first.

A copy of any of the above can be obtained bywriting to the WHO. If you want more informationabout a specific case study, or the project, or maybehave ideas about HRD activities to be shared withothers, please contact:

Manager, EHE/CWS

World Health Organization

1211 Geneva 27

Switzerland


Produced by

the World Health Organization (WHO)and the Swedish International Development

Authority (SIDA)

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