Manpower planning

 

Meaning and Definition of Human Resource PlanningHuman resource planning or manpower planning is

essentially the process of getting the right number of qualified people into right job at the right time. It is a system of matching the supply of people (existing employees and those to be hired or searched for) with openings the organization expects over a given time frame.

 According to Edwin B. Geisler, "Manpower Planning is

the process (including forecasting, developing, implementing and controlling) by which a firm ensures that it has the right number of people and the right kind of people', at the right places, at the right time, doing things for which they are economically most useful".

Need for HRP:Employment-Unemployment Situation:Technological ChangesOrganizational ChangesDemographic ChangesSkill ShortagesGovernmental InfluencesLegislative ControlsImpact of Pressure Groups Systems Concept Lead Time: The long lead-time is necessary in the selection

process and for training and development of the employee to handle new knowledge and skills successfully. .

HRP at Different LevelsNational Level: Generally government at the centre plan Jor human

resources at the national level. It forecasts the demand for and supply of human resource, for the entire nation

  Sectoral Level: Manpower requirements for a particular sector like

agricultural sector, industrial sector or tertiary sector are projected based on the government policy, projected output/operations etc.

  Industry Level: Manpower needs of a particular industry like cement,

textile, chemical is predicted taking into account the output of operational level of that particular industry.  

Unit Level: This covers the estimation of human resource needs of an organization or company based on its corporate business plan.  

Departmental Level: This covers the manpower needs of a particular department in a company.

 6) Job Level: Manpower needs of a particular job family within

department like Mechanical Engineer, are forecasted at this level.

Manpower planning on the basis of time spanshort term manpower planning and long term manpower planning.   I) Short Term Manpower Planning: as the name suggests is made for a short time,

i.e., for a period of not more than two years. are more concerned with specific projects and

programs and the existing personnel must be adjusted, to match the requirements of that project and program.

Problems of short term HRP (i) Weak Incumbent: The first and the most difficult problem in short-term planning is

experienced when an existing personnel is not according to the specifications of the job. In such circumstances, there are four approaches, for matching jobs and individuals:

  a) Changing of the Man: The first approach in this regard is the changing of the present

incumbent by improving his ability through education, training and counseling.

  b) Change in the Contents of the Job: The next approach can be to change the job contents, to make them

suitable to the individual. This can be done by:   Withdrawing a duty from one position and assigning it to some other

related position,

Adjusting the degree of decentralization, Providing the additional assistance when a

person is weak. c) Changing the Job and the Man: Another approach may be a combination of the

above two approaches, i.e., both man and the job be be adjusted acccording to each other by:

  Improving the ability of the man through training and counseling and  

Shifting a duty from one position to another.

d) Removal of the Incumbent: The fifth approach may be the removal of the present incumbent.

But this step should be taken only when: It is not possible to change the job to make it

suitable to the individual, or   The individual cannot be improved even

after proper training and counseling.

ii) . Strong Incumbent: Some people in the organization may have greater ability than their present job requires.

In such a case, again there is a problem of matching jobs with the man, because a portion of an individual's ability remains unutilized. For the proper utilization of the ability, the following approaches may be tried out:  

a) Assigning Additional Duties: A man may be assigned some additional but related duties beyond his assigned sphere. He may give advice to others who are poor in their job performance.

b) Assigning Some Special Problems: Sometimes, some special problems arise in the organization.

 The help of the capable man can be taken, to solve the problem.  c) Advice: Advice of the capable man can be sought, for any

problem, for which he is supposed to be having special knowledge or any activity can be made part of his regular duty, which requires repeated advice of the capable man.

 d) Change in Job: The ability of a man can be better utilized,

by changing the job that suits his abilities and capabilities. Any activity, which is not being managed properly, may be assigned to the capable man. 

iii) Unexpected VacancyThe exact problem which the management has to face

in the short run, is the filling up of post falling vacant, due to some unexpected reasons, such as death, resignation or some other social reason.

As these unexpected factors are not known in advance, so again the problem of matching jobs and individuals arises.

No one in the organization may match the vacant position. Much can be achieved, by changing the job reorganization or by changing the next person in the position through training and for the mean time some temporary arrangements can be made.

Long Term Manpower Planning:is concerned with all jobs and persons at

once - with matching total available personnel in the organization to total job requirements.

It is concerned with fulfilling future vacancies, rather than matching the present incumbents to present jobs.

Elements of long term planningi) Projecting Manpower Requirements: The first essential step in projecting the

manpower requirements is to forecast the organization structure.

The following factors should be analyzed to forecast the manpower requirements:

a) Rate of Loss: The rate of loss, due to known factors (e.g. retirement and transfer, etc.) and unknown (e.g. resignation, discharge, leave, etc.) factors.

b) Change in organization’s sizec) Job Analysisc) Taking stock of existing manpowerd) Recruitment and selectione) Manpower Development

Factors Affecting Human Resource Planning:External Factors Internal Factors

Government Policies Company Policies and Strategies

Level of Economic Development Human Resource Policies

Business Environment Job Analysis

Level of Technology Time Horizons

International Factors Type and Quality of Information

Company's Production Operations Policy

Trade Unions

Environment

Organizational Objectives & Policies

HR Needs Forecast HR Supply Forecast

HR Programming

HRP Implementation

Control and Evaluation of programme

Surplus Restricted Hiring Reduced Hours VRS, lay off etc.

Shortage Recruitment Selection, etc.

THE HRP PROCESS

Managerial Judgment

Ratio Trend Analysis

Regression Analysis

Work Study Techniques

Delphi Technique

Flow Models

HR Demand Forecast

Others

TECHNIQUES OF HR DEMAND FORECASTING

1) Managerial Judgement: In this method, experienced managers estimate the future manpower

requirements and their skill level for their respective departments on the basis of their experience and expected future work-load and employee efficiency. These departmental estimates are then aggregated and sanctioned by the top management.

2) Ratio Analysis: Different ratios like total output/number of workers, total sales volume/number of sales persons, direct workers/ indirect workers etc. are calculated on the basis of past data. Future data are projected on the basis of these ratio applying time series analysis and extrapolation techniques. It is a mathematical extension of past data into a future time period; other techniques may also be used for this purpose.

TECHNIQUES OF HR DEMAND FORECASTING

TECHNIQUES OF HR DEMAND FORECASTING contd.

3) Trend Analysis: Trend analysis means studying variations in a firm's employment

levels over the last few years to predict future needs. In this, the number of employees in a firm at the end of each of the

last five years may be computed or the total number of each sub-group (like sales, production, secretarial, and administrative people) at the end of each of those years may be calculated.

The purpose is to identify trends that might continue into the future. Trend analysis can provide an initial estimate, but other factors like change in sales volume and productivity also affect staffing needs.

4) Scatter Plot: A scatter plot shows graphically how two variables - such as a measure of business activity and a firm's staffing levels - are related. If they are, then by forecasting the level of business activity, personnel requirements can be estimated.

 

TECHNIQUES OF HR DEMAND FORECASTING contd.5) Using Computers to Forecast Personnel Requirement:

Employers use various software programs to forecast personnel requirements.

Typical data needed include direct labor hours required to produce one unit of product (a measure of productivity), and three sales projections - minimum, maximum, and probable - for the product line in question.

Based on such data, a typical program generates figures on average staff levels required to meet product demands, as well as separate computerized forecasts for direct labor (such as assembly workers), indirect staff (such as secretaries), and exempt staff (such as executives).

With programs like these, employers can quickly translate projected productivity and sales levels into forecasts of personnel needs, and estimate the effects of various productivity and sales level assumptions on personnel requirements.

TECHNIQUES OF HR DEMAND FORECASTING contd. 6) Mathematical Models: This expresses the relationship between independent variables (like investment, sales,

production etc.) and dependent variables (e.g. number of workers required). Thus a number of variables influencing manpower future needs are put into a formula. Several types of models, e.g. regression, optimization and probabilistic models can be used. These are complex and are used only by big organizations.

  7) Work Study Techniques: Work study technique is based on the volume operation and work efficiency of personnel.

Volume of operation is derived from the organizational plan documents and increase/decrease in operation can be measured. Work efficiency or productivity is measured by time and motion study which specifies standard output per unit of time, say per hour.

Thus, the number of operatives required to complete specified volume of operation is: Planned Output _____________________________________________________ Standard output per hour x Standard hours per person