Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q4, 2005

8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q4, 2005

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Contents

United States Employment Outlook 2

Regional Comparisons

Sector Comparisons

Global Employment Outlook 14

International Comparisons Americas

International Comparisons Asia Pacific

International Comparisons Europe

About the Survey 20

About Manpower 21


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4

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

Regional Comparisons

Midwest

Net Employment

Outlook

Seasonally

AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

%%%%% %

All Industries 25 8 62 5 17 18

Construction 23 14 60 3 9 25

Education 519 73 3 14 8

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 19 4 73 4 15 15

Manufacturing Durables 28 10 57 5 18 22

Manufacturing Non-Durables 26 7 62 5 19 21

Mining 20 20 60 0 40

Public Administration 11 13 75 1 -2 9

Services 21 7 66 6 14 18

Transportation & Public Utilities 24 655 6 19 20

Wholesale & Retail Trade 34 8 54 4 26 17

Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook Seasonally AdjustedSeasonally Adjusted

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio,

South Dakota, Wisconsin.

Among employers surveyed in the Midwest, 25% plan

to add staff during the final quarter of 2005, and 8%

expect to reduce headcount. Thus, the Net Employment

Outlook is 17%. According to seasonally adjusted data,

employers are more positive about hiring projections

than they were last quarter, but are not as optimistic as

they were last year at this time. The hiring pace is,

however, expected to be somewhat slower than a year

ago at this time. For the second consecutive quarter,

employers in the Midwest have the weakest

employment outlook among the four regions surveyed.

More than half of the industry sectors surveyed foresee

an uptick in hiring compared with third quarter. They are

Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,

Construction, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Education,

Services and Public Administration. The most notable

decline in employer optimism is in the Mining sector.

Employer confidence remains fairly consistent with levels

reported last year at this time in the majority of sectors.

Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing and

Services employers voice similar hiring intentions compared

to last year. A slightly stronger hiring pace is expected

among Education and Public Administration employers,

while those in Transportation/Public Utilities, Wholesale/

Retail Trade and Finance/Insurance/Real Estate predict less

activity. More noticeable changes in hiring plans are evident

in the Construction sector where employers foresee a

moderate increase in hiring, and in the Mining sector,

where a significant slow down in staffing is anticipated.


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5

Net Employment

Outlook

Seasonally


% % % % % %

All Industries 30 8 58 4 2122

Construction 33 5013 4 20 23

Education 26 8 64 2 18 12



Manufacturing Non-Durables 29 10 19 20

Mining 25 0 25 11Public Administration 14 7 7 10

Services 29 6 23 27

Transportation & Public Utilities 28 3

56

7578

59

64

5

01

6

5 25 22


89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Northeast

The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,

Rhode Island, Vermont.

Thirty percent of employers surveyed in the Northeast

intend to increase hiring, while 8% expect a decrease in

staff levels, which leads to a Net Employment Outlook of

22%. Seasonally adjusted data reveals that hiring in theNortheast is likely to return to levels last experienced at

the beginning of the decade.

Employers in seven out of 10 sectors surveyed are more

upbeat about hiring conditions than they were in the third

quarter. Mining employers are significantly more confident

about their staffing plans, and a more positive

employment outlook is also reported in the

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Services, Non-Durable

Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,Wholesale/Retail Trade and Education sectors. The hiring

pace is expected to remain consistent in the

Construction, Durable Goods Manufacturing and Public

Administration sectors.

The employment landscape for the coming quarter is

similar to last year at this time in the Mining, Non-Durable

Goods Manufacturing, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and

Education sectors. Services employers are decidedly

more optimistic about hiring than they were a year ago,

and employer confidence is also more promising in

Construction, Transportation/Public Utilities, Public

Administration and Wholesale/Retail Trade.

Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers report weaker

hiring plans for the coming quarter.


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6


South

Net Employment

Outlook

Seasonally


% % % % % %

All Industries 30 7 57 6 23 22

Construction 30 568 6 22 28

Education 32 4 58 6 28 23



Manufacturing Non-Durables 23 9 63 5 14 15

Mining 31 4 55 10 27 27Public Administration 22 628 8 14 18

Services 29 8 57 6 21 24

Transportation & Public Utilities 28 613 8 25 24


Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook Seasonally AdjustedSeasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,

Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.

Of the employers surveyed in the South, 30% plan to

increase employment levels in the final months of 2005,

and 7% expect to cut back on staff, which results in a

Net Employment Outlook of 23%. Seasonally adjusteddata suggests that a slightly slower hiring pace is in store

when compared with third quarter, but the employment

picture is about the same as it was at this time last year.

In a quarter-over-quarter analysis, a slowdown in hiring

is indicated in half of the 10 industries surveyed. Non-

Durable Goods Manufacturers are considerably less

likely to add staff than they were during the third quarter.

Employers also foresee a slower hiring pace in the

Education, Construction, Wholesale/Retail Trade andFinance/Insurance/Real Estate sectors. Demand for

workers is expected to hold steady in the Mining,

Transportation/Public Utilities, Services and Public

Administration industry sectors, while Durable Goods

Manufacturers predict a moderate boost instaff requirements.

Year-over-year comparisons are more upbeat. The

fourth quarter of 2005 is likely to bring more positive

employment trends in the Mining, Construction, Durable

Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,

Public Administration, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate

and Education sectors. Services employers are as

optimistic as they were last year, while Wholesale/Retail

Trade employers and Non-Durable GoodsManufacturers foresee a declining hiring pace.


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Sector Comparisons

According to seasonally adjusted data, the employment

outlook is varied among the 10 industry sectors surveyed.

For the final months of 2005, employers in Mining and

Construction express the most optimistic hiring pace.

Healthy job prospects are also in store for Durable and

Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Services,

Transportation/Public Utilities and Wholesale/Retail Trade.

The job climate in Education and Public Administration is

more conservative than in the other sectors, as it has

been all year.

Construction

Education

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

Manufacturing Durables

Manufacturing Non-Durables

Mining

Public Administration

Services

Transportation & Public Utilities

Wholesale & Retail Trade

18

26

2015

0 4540

2728

814

19

21

23

2920

1922

17

22

19

18


17

5 10 15 20 25 30 35


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Construction


89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-20-15-10-505

10152025303540

There is no end in sight to the strong hiring pattern in

the Construction sector, according to seasonally

adjusted survey data. The fourth quarter employment

outlook is identical to third quarter projections and morefavorable than a year ago.

As was the case in the third quarter, employers in the

West are most optimistic about job opportunities for the

coming quarter, while those in the Northeast reveal the

weakest hiring intentions.

Education


89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

When seasonal variations are removed from the data,

job market stability surfaces in the Education sector.

Employer optimism is similar to levels reported in the

third quarter and slightly improved from a year ago.

Job seekers are most likely to find employers seeking

staff in the South, while those in the Midwest are in for

a more challenging job hunt.


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10


Manufacturing Durable Goods


89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

As Durable Goods Manufacturers close out the year,

they reverse course, ending a slow decline in the hiring

pace that occurred over the previous three quarters.

For the fourth quarter, seasonally adjusted hiring plans

are more encouraging than in the July September

period and similar to those reported for the end of 2004.

Among the regions, employers in the South reveal the

most optimistic hiring plans, while those in the Northeast

expect a slower hiring pace.

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate


89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

0

5

10

15

20

25

After taking a slight tumble in the third quarter, hiring

intentions in the Finance/Insurance/Real Estate sector

are stable for the fourth quarter, according to seasonally

adjusted data. The hiring pace is expected to remainabout the same as it was in the third quarter and a

year ago.

Employers in the Northeast express the strongest hiring

intentions among the four regions surveyed. Midwest

employers are most conservative when it comes to

planning staff additions.


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11

Mining

Although hiring intentions in the Mining sector took a

moderate dip in the third quarter, the fourth quarter

forecast indicates that employers have fully recovered

their confidence, according to seasonally adjusted data.

In fact, Mining employers report the strongest employment

outlook among the 10 sectors surveyed. A moderate

increase in hiring activity is expected, compared with

the third quarter and a year ago at this time.

There is significant disparity in hiring projections among

the regions. Employers in the West voice the most

optimistic employment outlook, while those in the

Midwest lag markedly behind.

Manufacturing Non-Durable Goods


89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 050

5

10

15

20

25

30

When seasonal variations are removed from the data,

the October December period marks the sixth straight

quarter of steady hiring intentions for Non-Durable

Goods Manufacturers. Employer optimism is close tolevels reported in the third quarter and down only

slightly from a year ago.

Hiring in the Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing sector

is expected to be most plentiful in the West and least

promising in the South.

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


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Public Administration

When seasonal variations are removed from the data, Public

Administration employers predict little change in the hiring

pace for the fourth quarter. The employment outlook is

identical to that reported in the third quarter, but shows amoderate increase from fourth quarter of 2004.

Job seekers are likely to find that employers in the South

are more willing to add staff than those in the Midwest, who

are approaching the task with a sense of caution.


89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Services

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

0

5

10

15

2025

30

Employer confidence continues its slow ascent in the

Services sector, according to seasonally adjusted

survey data. For the fourth quarter, the hiring pace is

expected to be slightly stronger than it was during the

July September period and a year ago.

Employers in the Northeast offer the most encouraging

employment prospects, while those in the Midwest

report the least promising job prospects for the

fourth quarter.


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Wholesale & Retail Trade


89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-15-10-505

101520253035

Transportation & Public Utilities


89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Seasonally adjusted survey data indicates steady hiring

in the Transportation/Public Utilities sector. Hiring

projections are identical to those reported in the third

quarter and more positive than they were in the finalquarter of 2004.

Employers in the South issued the healthiest hiring

forecast, and those in the Midwest and West express

the most conservative outlook.

According to seasonally adjusted survey results, the

hiring pace in the Wholesale/Retail Trade sector is

expected to wane slightly during the final three months

of the year. Job seekers can expect to find fewer

companies seeking to add staff compared with the third

quarter and a year ago.

Regionally, employers in the West have the most

potential for staff additions. Midwest employers are

more placid about their staffing plans.


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Global Employment OutlookNew Zealand, Canada and the United States reported

the strongest hiring expectations, while those in

Germany, Italy and Austria anticipated the weakest

hiring activity. German employers reversed their

positive third quarter hiring expectations with a

negative outlook for the final quarter of 2005.

In the United States and Canada, seasonally adjusted

results reveal continued solid hiring activity. In the UK,

however, seasonally adjusted figures indicate a

decidedly weaker outlook than a year ago at this time.

Over 45,000 employers have been interviewed across

23 countries and territories to measure anticipated

employment trends between October and

December 2005.

Employers in 20 of the 23 countries and territories

surveyed expect to add staff during the fourth quarter

of 2005, although 13 of the 23 countries and

territories are reporting weaker employment prospects

than three months ago. Compared to the fourth

quarter of 2004, labor markets are expected to

improve in eight of 23 countries. Employers in India,

Americas

Canada

Mexico

United States

Asia Pacific

Australia

China

Hong Kong

Japan

India

New Zealand

Singapore

Taiwan

Europe

Austria

Belgium

France

Germany

Ireland

Netherlands

Norway

Spain

UK

Italy

Switzerland

Sweden

Net Employment Outlook



Quarter 4 2005

Quarter 4 2005

Quarter 4 2005

Quarter 3 2005

Quarter 3 2005

Quarter 3 2005

13

%

5

8

4

4

3

0

%

29 (18)1

18

25 (21)1

%

20

14

23

22

34

11

24

20

17

10

11

12 (12)1

3

9

%

0

8

5

-2

5

3

%

16 (20)1

19

21 (20)1

%

18

14

22

13

40

18

16

14

12

10

3

8 (5)1

-1

Qtr on Qtr Change

Q3 2005 to Q4 2005

Qtr on Qtr Change

Q3 2005 to Q4 2005

Qtr on Qtr Change

Q3 2005 to Q4 2005

-4

%

-5

0

1

-6

2

3

%

-13 (2)1

1

-4 (-1)1

%

-2

0

-1

-9

6

7

-8

-6

-5

0

-8

-4 (-7)1

-4

-

%

-4

1

0

0

-1

-

%

3 (3)1

1

0 (0)1

%

1

3

-7

-12

-

4

-

0

5

5

-6

-10 (-9)1

0

Yr on Yr Change

Q4 2004 to Q4 2005

Yr on Yr Change

Q4 2004 to Q4 2005

Yr on Yr Change

Q4 2004 to Q4 2005

1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity for Canada, the UK

and the United States.

Quarter 4 2004

%

13 (17)1

18

21 (20)1

Quarter 4 2004

%

17

-

-

-

-

25

11

29

14

Quarter 4 2004

%

4

7

5

-2

14

6

7

5

9

18 (14)1

-1


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15

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2003 2004 2005

Line shows seasonally adjusted data.

International Comparisons Americas

Over 21,000 interviews have been conducted across

the United States, Canada and Mexico to measure

anticipated employment trends between October and

December 2005. The overall regional outlook is positive,with employers in all three countries following the same

stable hiring patterns seen throughout the year.

Employers in the United States and Canada are most

optimistic about hiring, while Mexican employers also

expect a solid hiring pace in the next three months.

Fourth quarter hiring expectations among Canadianemployers are the strongest they have been in five

years, based on seasonally adjusted data.

Canada

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2003 2004 2005

Mexico

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2003 2004 2005


USA


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International Comparisons Asia Pacific

Nearly 13,000 interviews have been conducted across

Asia Pacific to measure anticipated employment trends

between October and December 2005.

Employment prospects are positive in all countries

surveyed by Manpower in Asia Pacific, although

employers in Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, Australia and

New Zealand expect to hire at a slower pace compared

with three months ago. Indian employers reported the

most optimistic hiring expectations in Asia Pacific and

among the other 22 countries and territories surveyed

internationally. Chinese employers were the least

optimistic in the region about their hiring activities for

the three months ahead. Notably, Japanese employers

reported their strongest fourth quarter Net EmploymentOutlook to date, which remained unchanged from last

quarter. Employers in Singapore, Japan and Hong

Kong reported considerably improved fourth quarter

employment prospects compared to those Net

Employment Outlooks recorded in quarter four of 2003

when the survey first began in those countries.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2003 2004 2005

Australia

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2003 2004 2005

Hong Kong

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

China joined the survey in Q2 2005.

2003 2004 2005

China

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

India joined the survey in Q3 2005.

2003 2004 2005

India


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50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2003 2004 2005

Japan

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 2005.

2003 2004 2005

Taiwan

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

2003 2004 2005

Singapore

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2003 2004 2005

New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 2004.

New Zealand


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International Comparisons Europe

Over 11,000 interviews have been conducted across

12 European nations to measure anticipated employment

trends between October and December 2005. Within

the majority of the European labor markets surveyed,employers reported positive Net Employment Outlooks,

however, employers in seven of the 12 countries expect

the seasonal slowdown in hiring that typically occurs on

the continent in the fourth quarter.

Employer hiring expectations are strongest in Ireland,

Norway and Spain.The least optimistic and only negative

employment prospects were reported by German and

Italian employers. Irish employment prospects are

considerably improved compared to the fourth quarter

two years ago, when employers recorded negative hiring

outlooks. Conversely, employment prospects in Austriareturned to zero, a Net Employment Outlook last

reported by employers there in quarter four of 2003.

Compared to one year ago, labor market activity is

expected to be similar in most countries, however,

based on seasonally adjusted data, employer hiring

expectations are notably lower in the UK.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20


2003 2004 2005

Austria

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2003 2004 2005

Belgium

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2003 2004 2005

France50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2003 2004 2005

Germany


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19

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2003 2004 2005

Ireland

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20


2003 2004 2005

Italy

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2003 2004 2005

Netherlands

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2003 2004 2005

Norway

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2003 2004 2005

Spain

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

2003 2004 2005

Sweden

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 2005.


2003 2004 2005

Switzerland

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20


2003 2004 2005

UK


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The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted

quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or

decrease the number of employees in their workforce during

the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than

40 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employmentactivity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:

Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area

of focus.

Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the

most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the

world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next

quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on

retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past.

Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived

all of its information from a single question.

Independent:The survey is conducted with a representative

sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it

is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from

Manpowers customer base.

Robust:The survey is based on interviews with more than

45,000 public and private employers across 23 countries and

territories to measure anticipated employment trends each

quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across

specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

Methodology

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using

a validated methodology, in accordance with the higheststandards in market research. The research team for the 23

countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted

includes Manpowers Market Intelligence team; the Organization

Research and Analysis Division of Right Management

Consultants an independent operating division of Manpower

Inc.; NOP World and Grupo IDM. The survey has been

structured to be representative of each national economy. The

margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not

greater than +/- 3.9%.

In the United States, the national survey is conducted by

Manpowers North American Market Intelligence Team and

includes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews, the

margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.

Survey Question

All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the

same question, How do you anticipate total employment at your

location to change in the three months to the end of December

2005 as compared to the current quarter?


Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment

Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of

employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and

subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect tosee a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.

The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for

Canada, United Kingdom and the United States to provide

additional insight into the survey data. These adjustments make

it possible to review the data without the employment

fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each year, thus

providing a clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower

intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other

countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled.

History of the Survey

1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

Survey launched in the United States and Canada.

1966 Manpowers UK operation launches the equivalent of the

United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly

Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts the

same forward-looking research format as the United States

survey and is the first of its kind in Europe.

1976 2nd generation of Manpowers Employment Outlook

Survey launched in the United States and Canada.

Research methodology is updated to evolve with

advancements in the field of market research.

2002 Manpower UKs Quarterly Survey of Employment

Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research

methodology. Manpowers operations in Mexico and

Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.

2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total 18

countries and territories worldwide: Australia, Austria,

Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland,

Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore,

Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.

2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

2005 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland and

Taiwan launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

About the Survey


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About Manpower Inc.Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the employment

services industry, offering customers a continuum of services to

meet their needs throughout the employment and business cycle.

The company specializes in permanent, temporary and contract

recruitment; employee assessment; training; career transition;organizational consulting services and professional financial

services. Manpowers worldwide network of 4,300 offices in

68 countries and territories enables the company to meet the

needs of its 400,000 customers per year, including small and

medium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the

worlds largest multinational corporations. The focus of

Manpowers work is on raising productivity through improved

quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling customers to

concentrate on their core business activities. In addition to the

Manpower brand, the company operates under the brand names

of Right Management Consultants, Jefferson Wells, Elan and

Brook Street. More information on Manpower Inc. is available at

www.manpower.com.

About Manpower USAIn the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range of

HR services, in addition to providing administrative, industrial

and contact center personnel. Under the Manpower

Professional brand, the company places contract professionals

on assignment in areas such as information technology,scientific, finance, engineering and telecommunications. More

information about Manpowers US operation can be found at

www.us.manpower.com.


23/23

Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217

Tel: 414 961 1000

www.us.manpower.com

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q4, 2005

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