Manpower employment Outlook Survey Hong Kong Q3 dOC NAMe: HONg KONg_2COL_A4_Q315_FINAL pAge: 4...

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Transcript of Manpower employment Outlook Survey Hong Kong Q3 dOC NAMe: HONg KONg_2COL_A4_Q315_FINAL pAge: 4...

  • SMART JOB NO: 06572 QuARTeR 1 2015

    CLIeNT: MANpOweR

    SuBJeCT: MeOS Q115 RedeSIgN – TwO COLOuR – A4

    SIZe: A4

    dOC NAMe: HONg KONg_2COL_A4_Q315_FINAL pAge: 1

    ARTwORK SIZe: 297mm x 210mm dATe: 29.05.15

    87 Charterhouse street • London eC1M 6hJ • teL +44 (0)20 7553 4744

    Manpower employment Outlook Survey Hong Kong

    Q3 2015

  • SMART JOB NO: 06572 QuARTeR 1 2015

    CLIeNT: MANpOweR

    SuBJeCT: MeOS Q115 RedeSIgN – TwO COLOuR – A4

    SIZe: A4

    dOC NAMe: HONg KONg_2COL_A4_Q315_FINAL pAge: 2

    ARTwORK SIZe: 297mm x 210mm dATe: 29.05.15

    87 Charterhouse street • London eC1M 6hJ • teL +44 (0)20 7553 4744

    The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the third quarter 2015 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 700 employers in Hong Kong. All survey participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2015 as compared to the current quarter?”

    Contents

    Hong Kong employment Outlook 1 Organisation-Size Comparisons Sector Comparisons

    global employment Outlook 7 International Comparisons – Asia Pacific International Comparisons – Americas International Comparisons – EMEA

    About the Survey 23

    About ManpowergroupTM 24H o

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  • Manpower Employment Outlook Survey 1

    SMART JOB NO: 06572 QuARTeR 1 2015

    CLIeNT: MANpOweR

    SuBJeCT: MeOS Q115 RedeSIgN – TwO COLOuR – A4

    SIZe: A4

    dOC NAMe: HONg KONg_2COL_A4_Q315_FINAL pAge: 1

    ARTwORK SIZe: 297mm x 210mm dATe: 29.05.15

    87 Charterhouse street • London eC1M 6hJ • teL +44 (0)20 7553 4744

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookNet Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero 20062005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014  2015

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    Hong Kong employment Outlook

    Hong Kong employers report upbeat hiring plans for the July-September time frame. With 21% of employers expecting to increase staffing levels, 4% anticipating a decrease and 71% forecasting no change, the resulting Net Employment Outlook stands at +17%.

    Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +16%. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable both quarter-over- quarter and year-over-year.

    Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

    From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise.

    Increase decrease No Change don’t Know Net employment Outlook

    Seasonally Adjusted

    % % % % % % July-Sep 2015 21 4 71 4 17 16

    July-Sep 2014 18 2 74 6 16 15

    Oct-Dec 2014 21 5 71 3 16 15

    Jan-Mar 2015 18 3 76 3 15 15 Apr-June 2015 17 2 71 10 15 17

  • 2 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

    SMART JOB NO: 06572 QuARTeR 1 2015

    CLIeNT: MANpOweR

    SuBJeCT: MeOS Q115 RedeSIgN – TwO COLOuR – A4

    SIZe: A4

    dOC NAMe: HONg KONg_2COL_A4_Q315_FINAL pAge: 2

    ARTwORK SIZe: 297mm x 210mm dATe: 29.05.15

    87 Charterhouse street • London eC1M 6hJ • teL +44 (0)20 7553 4744

    Participating employers are categorized into one of four organization sizes: Micro businesses have less than 10 employees; Small businesses have 10-49 employees; Medium businesses have 50-249 employees; and Large businesses have 250 or more employees.

    Employers in all four organization size categories forecast job gains in 3Q 2015. The strongest labor market is anticipated by Large-size employers who report a bright Net Employment Outlook of +36%. Solid payroll gains are forecast by Medium-size employers with an Outlook of +22% while the Outlook for Small employers stands at +10%. Meanwhile, Micro employers report cautious hiring intentions with an Outlook of +1%.

    Organisation-Size Comparisons Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook for Large firms is 10 percentage points stronger. However, Outlooks decline by 5 and 3 percentage points in the Micro- and Small-size categories, respectively.

    When compared with 3Q 2014, employers in three of the four organization size categories report improved hiring prospects. The Outlook for Large employers is 8 percentage points stronger while increases of 4 and 2 percentage points are reported in the Medium- and Small-size categories, respectively. However, Micro employers report a decline of 7 percentage points.

    IncreaseOrganisation-Size decrease No Change don’t Know Net employment Outlook

    Seasonally Adjusted

    % % % % % %

    Large-Size 250 or more 39 2 55 4 37 36

    Medium-Size 50-249 29 6 61 4 23 22

    Small-Size 10-49 17 4 78 1 13 10

    Micro-Size less than 10 5 4 90 1 1 1

    Micro-Size less than 10Micro-Size less than 10

    Graph displays Seasonally Adjusted DataGraph displays Seasonally Adjusted Data

    Small-Size 10-49Small-Size 10-49 Medium-Size 50-249Medium-Size 50-249 Large-Size 250 or moreLarge-Size 250 or more

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

  • Manpower Employment Outlook Survey 3

    SMART JOB NO: 06572 QuARTeR 1 2015

    CLIeNT: MANpOweR

    SuBJeCT: MeOS Q115 RedeSIgN – TwO COLOuR – A4

    SIZe: A4

    dOC NAMe: HONg KONg_2COL_A4_Q315_FINAL pAge: 3

    ARTwORK SIZe: 297mm x 210mm dATe: 29.05.15

    87 Charterhouse street • London eC1M 6hJ • teL +44 (0)20 7553 4744

    Employers in all six industry sectors expect to grow staffing levels during 3Q 2015. The most optimistic hiring intentions are reported in the Services sector with a Net Employment Outlook of +24%. Upbeat hiring plans are reported in both the Mining & Construction sector and the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, with Outlooks of +20% and +19%, respectively. Elsewhere, steady payroll gains are anticipated with Outlooks of +13% and +12% for the Transportation & Utilities sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, respectively. Meanwhile, the most cautious hiring plans are reported by Manufacturing sector employers, with an Outlook of +7%.

    When compared with 2Q 2015, employers report a decline of 2 percentage points for the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector. Elsewhere, hiring prospects are unchanged or remain relatively stable.

    Year-over-year, Outlooks improve in five of the six industry sectors. The most noteworthy increases of 4 and 2 percentage points are reported for the Services

    Sector Comparisons sector and the Transportation & Utilities sector, respectively. Meanwhile, Manufacturing sector employers report no change in hiring intentions.

    Wholesale & Retail Trade

    Transportation & Utilities

    Services

    Mining & Construction

    Manufacturing

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

    8

    13

    21

    14

    19

    7

    20

    12

    24

    20

    13

    150 5 10

    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

    2520 30 35

    26

  • 4 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

    SMART JOB NO: 06572 QuARTeR 1 2015

    CLIeNT: MANpOweR

    SuBJeCT: MeOS Q115 RedeSIgN – TwO COLOuR – A4

    SIZe: A4

    dOC NAMe: HONg KONg_2COL_A4_Q315_FINAL pAge: 4

    ARTwORK SIZe: 297mm x 210mm dATe: 29.05.15

    87 Charterhouse street • London eC1M 6hJ • teL +44 (0)20 7553 4744

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Employers report favorable hiring prospects for the next three months with a Net

    Employment Outlook of +19%. Hiring plans remain relatively stable both quarter-over-quarter

    and year-over-year.

    Manufacturing Reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +7%, employers anticipate a moderate hiring pace in the July-September time frame. The Outlook remains relatively stable when compared with the previous quarter and is unchanged year-over-year.

    +8 (+7)%

    +20 (+19)%

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookNet Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookNet Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

  • Manpower Employment Outlook Survey 5

    SMART JOB NO: 06572 QuARTeR 1 2015

    CLIeNT: MANpOweR

    SuBJeCT: MeOS Q115 RedeSIgN – TwO COLOuR – A4

    SIZe: A4

    dOC NAMe: HONg KONg_2COL_A4_Q315_FINAL pAge: 5

    ARTwORK SIZe: 297mm x 210mm dATe: 29.05.15

    87 Char