Tata motors ltd

A PROJECT REPORT

ON

QUANTITATIVE & QUALITATIVE METHODS OF DEMAND FORECASTING OF EMPLOYEES IN AUTOMOBILE SECTOR AT TATA MOTORS, JAIPUR

Submitted by:

Manisha khinchi MBA IV Sem

(Poornima School of management)

ISI 2, RIICO Institutional Area, Goner Road, Sitapura, Jaipur

PREFACE

Employees demand forecasting provides students with comprehensive, up-to-date, and integrative information about the needs, methods, uses, risks, and future trends in human resource planning. There are three distinct features of this book that offer a significant link to the business-relevant approach to human resource planning (theoretical and operational):

1. This includes a review of relevant political, economical, legal, demographic, and social factors and their impact on human resource planning. To complement this, many of the examples, methods, and processes discussed are applicable globally. This focus allows students and teachers to concentrate on developing an understanding of unique Canadian human resource planning challenges and opportunities while developing transferable knowledge about global issues.

2. The framework of this book centers on an accessibility approach. Learning objectives are introduced at the beginning of each chapter; they outline the goals for study and are reinforced throughout the chapters. Each discusses a concept or theory, which is then illustrated with examples, case studies, company reviews, exercises, and web-based cases. This experiential style of the pedagogy reinforces learning for students.

3. The career orientation of this book is notable. Identification of national human resource certification requirements (Required Professional Capabilities) assists students in connecting the text and course as whole to their future career plans. In addition, the spotlight on strategic Partners, ethics, small business, current technology, and new human resource directions aims to fulfill human resources mandate to be a business partner.

The Indian automotive industry, although growing rapidly, is in a state of flux. The production

Capacities planned by the new joint ventures currently exceed most projections, and unless import tariffs come down quickly and the economy grows remarkably, a shake-out may be expected from the current 20 firms to about half a dozen major firms turning out finished products by the end of the decade. However, if multi-national firms decide to use India as a production base from which vehicles are exported to the rest of the world, more than half a dozen firms may be able to remain profitable in India. Suzuki has already begun to use its Maruti joint-venture production to export a few thousand cars to the Middle East and Europe. However, the production capacities of other emerging economies such as Korea and China are also predicted to grow significantly in the coming years, so exports may also face a highly competitive market situation.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I feel myself privileged at having an opportunity to thank the people who helped me at all Stages of my research work.

It is with a deep sense of gratitude that I acknowledge valuable guidance and timely suggestions offered to me by Mr. shantanu gosh (Senior Vice President - Practices, Solutions and Transitions, Genpact) and Project Guide Mr. Yogesh Joshi & Ms. Neha Sharma.

I am indebted to all staff and operational people at Genpact for giving me full support and encouragement. Its my sheer pleasure to acknowledge who have directly or indirectly guided and cooperated in one way or other and last but not least I would like to thank Mr. R. K. Agarwal,Mr. amish duggar, Mr. abhyajeet singh, Mr himanshu shekhawat and Mrs. Medha gupta for their valuable cooperation. Manisha khinchiEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Indian automobile industry is currently experiencing an unprecedented boom in demand for all types of vehicles. This boom has been triggered primarily by two factors:

(1) increase in disposable incomes and standards of living of middle class Indian families estimated to be as many as four million in number; and (2) the Indian government's liberalization measures such as relaxation of the foreign exchange and equity regulations, reduction of tariffs on imports, and banking liberalization that has fueled financing-driven purchases. Industry observers predict that passenger vehicle sales will triple in five years to about one million, and as the market grows and customer's purchasing abilities rise, there will be greater demand for higher-end models which currently constitute only a tiny fraction of the market. These trends have encouraged many multinational automakers from Japan, U. S. A., and Europe to enter the Indian market mainly through joint ventures with Indian firms. This paper presents an introduction to the key players in the Indian automotive industry, a summary of the recent developments, and an analysis of the opportunities and challenges facing the various players (Indian and multi-national assemblers and component makers) in the areas of product development, production, and distribution.The commercial vehicle (CV) industry faced challenging times in 2008-09 - reduction in cargo and passenger traffic, lower freight rates, difficulty in availability of vehicle finance, stricter appraisal norms for financing - all on the back of the global financial crisis.

The domestic CV sales dropped by 21.7 per cent over the previous year. The Goods Carrier (GC) segment witnessed a decline of 24 per cent, while Passenger Carrier (PC) segment witnessed sales drop by 7.1 per cent over the same period previous year. The exports too declined by 27.7 per cent in 2008-09.

The profitability of the manufacturers came under pressure in 2008-09 in the first half due to high input prices and in the second half due to huge reduction in sales volumes. The operating profit margin declined to 5.7 per cent from 9.2 per cent in 2007-08.

The stimulus packages announced by the government like a) excise duty cut from 14 per cent before December 2008 to 8 per cent (now rolled back to 10 per cent) b) implementation of the fleet modernization program of the State Road Transport Undertakings [SRTU] under the Jawaharlal Nehru Nation Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) and c) accelerated depreciation at the rate of 50 per cent of the annual allowance for vehicles purchased between September 30, 2008 and September 30, 2009 ensured a revival in the sector in 2009-10.

Although the exports for the industry still have not come out of the woods, the domestic sales managed to revive, with recovery being more pronounced post September 2009 with growth rate for CV sales for the period September - December 2009 standing at 92.6 per cent y-o-y as compared to 19.1 per cent for April - December 2009. The sector was also helped by reduction in commodity prices during the first half of FY10. The prices of both steel and rubber reduced by around 20 per cent, translating into improved margins of the CV industry

.Various launches were made during April - December 2009 owing to the revival in the CV demand. In Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) GC segment, Tata Motors launched Super Ace and Ace EX under