MANGROVE DEGRADATION: CAUSAL CHAIN...
Transcript of MANGROVE DEGRADATION: CAUSAL CHAIN...
MANGROVE DEGRADATION: MANGROVE DEGRADATION: CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSESCAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSES
Nguyen Hoang Tri, VietnamNguyen Hoang Tri, VietnamUNEP/USM 29/4UNEP/USM 29/4--9/5/2007 9/5/2007
the Training Course on Sustainable Management of Mangrove Ecosystems for the UNEP-GEF-South China Sea Project on Reversing Marine Environmental Degradation Trends in the
South China Sea and the Gulf of Thailand
Systems ThinkingSystems Thinking
Mental Models
Systemic Structures
Patterns
Events
How components interact/relationships
Effects/Symptoms
What does the system look like/components
Ideas of how the system works in peoples’ minds
Causal Chain Analysis and Root Causes: The principle of or relationship between cause and effect.
• The Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA) was created The GIWA Approach (CCA) to help develop a priority setting mechanism for actions in international waters.
• The GIWA's task is to analyze potential policy actions that could solve or mitigate these problems. Given the complex nature of the problems, understanding their root causes is essential to develop effective solutions.
• A causal chain maps the causal relations between cause and effect.
Why were mangroves cut?
Hum
an activities and their impacts
Hum
an activities and their impacts
The Causal-Chain Model
Problem Concerns
Issues
Human activity Agriculture
Forestry
Fishing
Aquaculture
Mining
Industry
Energy production
Transport
Tourism
Urbanisation
Military activity
Human needs & wants
Markets
Economics
Demography
Lifestyle
Poverty
Infrastructure
- Investments
- Financing
Enforcement Agreements
Legislation
- Laws
- Rules
- Regulations
Education
Institution
- Competence
- Capacity
Root causes / Governance
IMPACT IMMEDIATE CAUSE
SECTOR ACTIVITY
ROOT CAUSEGIWA ISSUE
Fisheries resources were highly overexploited
Employment rates had decreased by 30-50% due to over-fishing & environmental degradation with substantial impact on the social life of the local population.
14. Overexploitation
Increased market demand for seafood that leads to increased fishing activities in disregard of the consequences related to depletion of the living resources.
Causal chain analysis for Yellow Sea:Unsustainable Exploitation of Living Resources
Business opportunities in the seafood processing industries had decreased
More efficient fishing practices by introduction of improved fishing technology.
Fisheries: easy access to improved fishing technologies; increasing the number of fishing fleets.
Increase in population growth, increased demand for seafood, enhances the fishing activities.
Profit motive in fishing and disregard of the environmental consequences causeduncontrolled entry in the number of fishing vessels into the fisheries sector. Increased
fishing efforts leading to over-harvesting of the living resources.
Biodiversity impacts Level of diversity Conservation of biodiversity Sustainable use of biodiversity
Ecosystem diversity
Would the intended activity lead, either directly or indirectly, to serious damage or total loss of (an) ecosystem(s), or land-use type(s), thus leading to a loss of ecosystem services of scientific/ecological value, or of cultural value?
Does the intended activity affect the sustainable human exploitation of (an) ecosystem(s) or land-use type(s) in such manner that the exploitation becomes destructive or non-sustainable (i.e. the loss of ecosystem services of social and/or economic value)?
Species diversity
Would the intended activity cause a direct or indirect loss of a population of a species?
Would the intended activity affect sustainable use of a population of a species?
Genetic diversity
Would the intended activity result in extinction of a population of a localized endemic species of scientific, ecological, or cultural value?
Does the intended activity cause a local loss of varieties/cultivars/breeds of cultivated plants and/or domesticated animals and their relatives, genes or genomes of social, scientific and economic importance?
Root causes
Linking cause and effectLinking cause and effect
Causal chain Causal chain analysisanalysis
Case studies• CONSERVATION OF COASTAL
WETLANDS IN THE RED RIVER DELTA: CONCEPTUAL MODEL
• CONSERVATION OF GLOBALLY SIGNIFICANT BIODIVERSITY ON MEINMAHLA ISLAND WILDLIFE SANCTUARY: CONCEPTUAL MODEL
• SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF MT. ISAROG'S TERRITORIES (SUMMIT) PROJECT CONCEPTUAL MODEL
• CONSERVATION OF UPLAND BIODIVERSITY IN YUNNAN CONCEPTUAL MODEL
Thank you