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Transcript of Managing uncertainty with scenario planning - Chalmers · Managing uncertainty with scenario...
Managing uncertainty with scenario planning
Martin Bö[email protected]
www.futuramb.se+46 704 262891
Oil price development 1970 - 1981
High
Low
Base
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Oil price development 1970 - 1990
High
Low
Base
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Actual outcome
$17
100 200 300 400 500
Feeling good
Mental maps
• We navigate by our mental maps - a mental representation of the world
• A picture/map is
• never complete
• always from a certain perspective
• dependant on the social context
• almost always centered around ourselves
• We strive to maintain our mental maps by filtering things that disturbs our current view
!“Memory of the future”
! The brain rearranges memory fragments to images of the future
! Provides a foundation for intentions and plans
! Focus perception and filter information
Autonomous
Uncertainty
in time
Un
certa
inty
in is
su
e
Today
Traditional
predictions
Driving f
Driving force
Driving force
Driving f
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Scenario D
Scenario logic
Different approach: focus on criticaluncertainties
The future for american automotive industry
Low-price fuel
High-price fuel
Neotraditionalvalues
Inner-directed values
Engineers’ Challenge
•Efficiency
•Protectionism
GreenHighways
•Smaller cars
•Versatility
Foreign Competition•Sportier cars
•Light trucks and vans
Long LiveDetroit
•Muscle cars
•Brand loyalty
(1980:s)
Jail
The factory
bling bling
Systemsanalyst?
??
Environment
Social factors, values and
demography
Technologydevelopment and
innovation
Environment and ecology
Politics, lawsand regulations
Economy, industries and
companies
Transactionenvironment
Internalworld
Drivingforces
Visibleeffects
1. Key focual issueand time perspective
5. Scenario logic
Scenario development
2.Key factors
4. Prioritization
3. Environmentaldriving forces
Internalworld
Social factors, values and
demography
Technologydevelopment and
innovation
Environment and ecology
Politics, lawsand regulations
Economy, industries and compananies
Environment
Transactionenvironment
1. Choose key focal issue(+ time perspective)
2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
Uncertainty
Impact offoreseeable
factors
Distance to future
F S G
Source: Kees van der HeijdenScenarios – The Art of Strategic Conversation
2. List key factors
2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
1. Brainstorm on PostIt notes!
– List everything you know have an impact
– ”Empty the barrel of the obvious”
2. Cluster notes and identify 4-6 key areas of impact
– Avoid generic predefined areas
– ”Let the notes talk!
Brainstorm tips:
• First individual brainstorm, then group discussion
• No single word PostIts
• ”Yes, and…”
• Keept the pace and keep the time limit!
3. Identify environmentaldriving forces
2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
• Widen the search to a higher level
• Add driving forces which
• Impacts the 4-6 key areas of impact
• Impacts the focal issue directly
• Use STEEP model
Tips:
• Ask why, why, why, why, why (5 times)
• Don’t be afraid of long shots!
• Keep yourself in the outer environment
Social factorsCultural patterns
Values and lifestyles
Demographics
Health
Crime
Education
Technological factorsDiffusion of technologies
Innovations
Scientific progressEconomical factorsIndustries and companies
Global, regional and local economy
Labour force and income
Infrastructure
Environmental factorsEcology
Climate/weather
Pollution
Recycling
Energy
Political factorsPolicys, laws and regulations
Political agendas
Court decisions
STEEP-model2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
4. Prioritize driving forces2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
Unimportant
Uncertainty
Predeterminedelements
Criticaluncertainties
Impact
5. Construct scenario logic2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
ABC XYZIssue
IssueHigh Low
ABC XYZ
High
Low
ScenarioA
ScenarioB
ScenarioC
ScenarioD
1. Identify two most critical uncertainties
• From the top right corner
2. Stretch them to their extremes
• Mutually exclusiveness!
3. Construct scenario cross
4. Discuss resulting scenarios andgive them telling names
Scenario planningIs a basic individual human property
But for groups it
• helps us seeing the bigger pictureand reperceive our environment by moving our focus the
• uncertainties
• larger environment
• underlying driving forces
• challenges and redraws the mental maps, which determines the limits to our thoughts and actions
• Identifies blind spots
• Facilitates learning on a strategic level
• (both for groups and individuals)
???(wwdkwdk)
don’t knowknow
haveknowledge
don’t have knowledge
Make horseshoes
Accounting
Fire and heat
Scenario references
http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario_planning/Website with many references to articles, books and other resources
The Art of the Long ViewPeter Schwartz
Scenarios – The art of strategic conversationKees van der Heijden
Scenario planning in a design situation
Approaches
• Evaluate a design
• Over time
• Versus different future worlds
• Initially in design process
• Creating a better mental map
• Create future oriented concrete design “rooms”
Time perspective
• Good design is timeless
• What time perspective do you currently have? Do you know?
Windtunneling
Wind tunneling for adjusting design
Sketch or spec
A
B
C
A
B
C
Given factors
Secondary factors
Adopt-a-world
A
B
C
Alternativefuture worlds
A
B
C
The market in each world
A
B
C
Products andservices in each world
Possible ways of design or
package business idea
Opportunities ExpertsNeed for products and services
1 2 3 4 5
Creating design roomshttp://www.smart-its.org/
• Three restaurants
• The edgy restaurant (experiences)
• The social restaurant (social interaction)
• The PC (Politically Correct) restaurant (ecological and ethical food and process)