MANAGING RISKS to CULTURAL PROPERTY · 2016. 5. 4. · Protect Heritage Corp. 2015 September...

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2015-10-13 1

Robert Waller

Protect Heritage Corp.

2015 September

MANAGING RISKS

to

CULTURAL PROPERTY

International Institutefor Conservation of

Historic and Artistic Works

This presentation

Is:

• Methods, levels, and

strategies for control of

risks

• Creativity and flexibility

• Right information to right

managers

Is not:

• Specific strategies

• Single grand plan

Methods for control

Avoid

Block

Detect

Respond / Recover

Levels for control

Location

Site

Building

Room

Storage unit

Object

Policy / procedure

The Forest

0.000001

0.0001

0.01

1

Ris

k /

Ce

ntu

ry

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

4 12 1 8 2 10 18 9 13 11 19 6 3 7 15 16 5 17 14Collection Unit

Fra

ction L

ost / C

entu

ry

Risk profile by collection units


0.000001

0.0001

0.01

1

The ForestR

isk /

Ce

ntu

ry


Risk profile by generic risk


Vilfredo Pareto

1848 - 1923

Pareto distribution

0

0.5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Ma

gn

itu

de

of

risk

Each risk

0

0.5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Each risk

Ma

gn

itu

de

of risk .

Pareto distribution with total

0

0 .5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0

E a c h r is k

Ma

gn

itu

de

o

f ris

k .

9 0 6 0 3 0

Pareto distribution

manage risks 1, 2, 3

0

0 .5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0

E a c h r is k

Ma

gn

itu

de

o

f ris

k .

9 0 6 0 3 0

Pareto distribution


0

0 .5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0

E a c h r is k

Ma

gn

itu

de

o

f ris

k .

9 06 0 3 0

Pareto distribution


0

0 .5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0

E a c h r is k

Ma

gn

itu

de

o

f ris

k .

9 0 6 0 3 0

Pareto distribution


0

0 .5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0

E a c h r is k

Ma

gn

itu

de

o

f ris

k .

9 0

6 0

3 0

Pareto distribution


0

0 .5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0

E a c h r is k

Ma

gn

itu

de

o

f ris

k .

9 06 03 0

Pareto distribution


0

0 .5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0

E a c h r is k

Ma

gn

itu

de

o

f ris

k .

9 0 6 0 3 0

Pareto distribution



Define context and scope

Identify risks

Determine expected losses

Evaluate risks


Management

more or less skilled handling of something

[risks]

“more or less skilled”

Skill joint evaluation of:

assessed risks,

and ability to mitigate


Risks must be evaluated from

a management capabilities perspective

Consider the perspective of: Preservation management (conservation)

Collection management

Finance and governance

Facilities management




Consider the perspective of: Preservation management (conservation)

– Collection management

– Finance and governance

– Facilities management


0.000001

0.0001

0.01

1

Ris

k /

Ce

ntu

ry


1998 Risk profile by generic risk


1998 Total Risk to CMN Collection

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

RH

2 &

Co

nc

Co

nt -

3

CN

- 3

RH

- 3

PF

-3

LU

V

PF

-2

CN

- 2

Cri

min

als

- 2

Pe

sts

Fir

e

Wa

ter

- 2

Cri

min

als

- 3

Cri

min

als

- 1

Te

mp

- 2

PF

-1

Co

nt -

1

Wa

ter

- 3

Co

nt -

2

Wa

ter

- 1

Te

mp

- 3

CN

- 1

Generic Risk

Ob

jects

lo

st p

er

ye

ar

.



2003 Total Risk to CMN Collection

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

RH

2 &

Conc

PF

-2

CN

- 3

LU

V

Crim

inals

- 2

Cont -

3

RH

- 3

PF

-3

CN

- 2

Fire

Pests

Crim

inals

- 3

Wate

r -

2

Tem

p -

2

Crim

inals

- 1

PF

-1

Cont -

2

Cont -

1

Wate

r -

3

Wate

r -

1

Tem

p -

3

CN

- 1

Generic Risk

Obje

cts

lost

per

year

.





Consider the perspective of:– Preservation management (conservation)

Collection management




0.000001

0.0001

0.01

1

Ris

k /

Ce

ntu

ry


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

4 12 1 8 2 10 18 9 13 11 19 6 3 7 15 16 5 17 14

Fra

ction lost /C

entu

ry

Collection Unit

Magnitude of Risk - Objects Assumed Equal Value

0

100

200

300

1 2 4 13 8 10 12 18 5 15 3 11 9 14 16 6 7 17 19

Collection Unit

Nu

mb

er

of

Ob

jects

Lo

st

/ Y

ea

r

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Fra

ctio

n o

f Un

it Lo

st /C

en

tury

.

Magnitude of Risk - Sections Assumed Equal Value

0

50

100

150

200

5 2 1 13 10 8 12 11 18 15 4 3 14 9 16 7 6 17 19

Collection Unit

Nu

mb

er

of

Ob

jects

Lo

st

/ Y

ea

r

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

Un

it Lo

ss O

ve

r Ne

xt C

en

tury

.

x 1,000,000

300 x

Alternative value distributions




Consider the perspective of:– Preservation management (conservation)


Finance and governance



0.000001

0.0001

0.01

1

Ris

k /

Ce

ntu

ry


0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

Type 1 Type 2 Type 3

Type of risk

Ris

k .

1993 1998 2003




Consider the perspective of:

– Preservation management (conservation)



Facilities management


0.000001

0.0001

0.01

1

Ris

k /

Ce

ntu

ry


1998 Facilities management share of risks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

LU

V

PF

-2

Fire

RH

- 3

Pests

Crim

inals

- 2

Wate

r -

2

Cont -

3

PF

-3

Tem

p -

2

Crim

inals

- 3

RH

2 &

Conc

PF

-1

Crim

inals

- 1

Cont -

1

Wate

r -

3

Wate

r -

1

Cont -

2

Tem

p -

3

CN

- 1

CN

- 2

CN

- 3

Generic risk

Ob

jects

lo

st p

er

ye

ar

..

1998 Facilities share of risks


2003 Facilities management share of risks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

LU

V

PF

-2

Fire

RH

- 3

Pests

Crim

inals

- 2

Wate

r -

2

Cont -

3

PF

-3

Tem

p -

2

Crim

inals

- 3

RH

2 &

Conc

PF

-1

Crim

inals

- 1

Cont -

1

Wate

r -

3

Wate

r -

1

Cont -

2

Tem

p -

3

CN

- 1

CN

- 2

CN

- 3

Generic risk

Ob

jects

lo

st p

er

ye

ar

.



2008 Projected Facilities share of risks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

LU

V

PF

-2

Fire

RH

- 3

Pests

Crim

inals

- 2

Wate

r -

2

Cont -

3

PF

-3

Tem

p -

2

Crim

inals

- 3

RH

2 &

Conc

PF

-1

Crim

inals

- 1

Cont -

1

Wate

r -

3

Wate

r -

1

Cont -

2

Tem

p -

3

CN

- 1

CN

- 2

CN

- 3

Generic risk

Ob

jects

lo

st p

er

ye

ar

.



Conclusion

CPRAM enables skillful management of

preservation.

It is not easy but ….

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MANAGING RISKS to CULTURAL PROPERTY · 2016. 5. 4. · Protect Heritage Corp. 2015 September...

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