Managing Projects via Control Charts & Trend Analysis

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P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T C E N T R E O F

E X C E L L E N C E

I P D / O U M

Managing Projects via Control

Charts & Trend Analysis?a PMP saga

[email protected]


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Control charts

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Why Control Charts?

They will let you know if an elementwithin your project is out of control or

not Control charts using historical,

forecasted and actual data can helpproject managers determine if projects

are in control, off scope or over budget

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How are They done?

Project schedules, baselines, costs and budgetscan all be measured with a few analysis tools

Control charts using historical, forecasted and

actual data can help project managersdetermine if projects are in control, off scope orover budget

Control charts are a popular and very useful et

of stools in Six Sigma projects and processmanagement

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History of Control Charts

Walter Shewhart first utilized controlcharts in 1924 to aid the world ofmanufacturing.

W. Edward Deming added elements tocontrol charts to assess every area of aprocess or organization when totalquality management (TQM) was

explored.

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no matter how well the

process is designed, there

exists a certain amount of

nature variability in outputmeasurements

-Walter Shewhart, 1924

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A control chart tellsyou how muchvariation the processcauses. A stableprocess producespredictable resultsconsistently-Know Ware, the maker of QI Macros SPCExcel Software for Six Sigma

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A Common Cause-e.g. Baking a cake

Common causes might be,

Types of oven utilized or high elevation

cookingthose items would be

considered a common mishap if the cake

baking process failed. Essentially, if you

dont know the exact temperature of an

older oven or high elevation directions arenot offered, its acceptable a cake as an

example

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A Special Cause- e.g. Baking a cake

Special causes (in baking that same cake)might be,

a recipe that forgets the baking powder as

a needed ingredient. The lack of bakingpowder is a special cause as it causes

the cake baking process to fail. Therefore,

why the cake baking process failed must

first be discovered (e.g. lack of bakingpowder) and then corrected

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Project Quality Management

In the Perform Quality Assurance process of PMBOK 4the quality control tools and techniques discussed are:

Cause and Effect Diagrams

Control Charts

Flow-ChartingHistogram

Pareto Chart and Pareto Analysis

Run ChartsScatter Diagrams

Statistical Sampling

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Types of Control Chart

X-Bar & R Control Charts

X-Bar & S Control Charts

U Charts

P Control Charts

C Control Charts

EWMA chart

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X-Bar and R Charts

These variable charts utilizethe X-Bar or the Mean todetermine subgroups

The R or Range plots thesubgroups based on upperand lower control limits

They the most widely utilizedcharts in project management

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X Bar and S Charts

Using this example of a variable

control chart is effective for 5 or

more subgroups The S or Standard Deviations are

considered in both upper and

lower control limits based onthe X-Bar or Mean

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U Charts

These variable types of control

charts utilize an upper and lower

range Elements falling in the upper range

need attention and analysis in order

for the problem to be corrected

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p Control Charts

This attribute-type chart is

effective when elements are

not equal A p Control Chart might be

used to determine how many

accidents occur each day at achosen intersection

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np Charts

A special version of the p chart

Follows the same principle as the p chart, but plotsthe number of instances in a category over time

rather than the proportion in the category The name "np" derives from the convention of

using "n" to refer to sample size

By multiplying sample size by proportion (n x p)

you get the actual number in a category

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c Control Charts

Another attribute-type control chart,

the c Control Chart explores

elements that are nonconformingA c Control Chart might be used to

explore mass-production of one

similar product where the elementsper unit do not conform to the

norm

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EWMA chart

The Exponentially Weighted MovingAverage (EWMA) chart

Provides quicker information about

shifts in process performance. Ideal when identifying a process shift

quickly is critical

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Trend analysis

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Trend Analysis Uses CCs

What a trend analysis reveals is whether theproject or an element of the project is whereit should be or way off track

Pareto and control charts are the mostpopularly used methods of analyzing trendsalong with simple product sampling

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Pareto Charts With Microsoft Excel

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Options for Modifying the Pareto Chart

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A trend analysis is performedusing run charts and involvesmathematical techniques to

forecast future outcomes basedon historical results PMBOK Version 4

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What a trend analysis reveals

is whether the project or anelement of the project iswhere it should be or way offtrack- Jean Shied

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Analysing Trends

Estimators, Pareto and control charts are themost popularly used methods of analyzing trendsalong with simple product sampling

Basically a trend can be any element within theproject that needs further analysis.

If utilizing Six Sigma or Lean, how many defectsare occurring?

Are milestones set in the project scope reached?If using Total Quality Management, is qualitywhere it should be or are areas lacking?

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Concepts of Trends

Build Corporate Dashboards- Build executive dashboards with KPIs, initiatives and more

Use actual product samplings and comparethem to set quality standards -Determine what is acceptable and what unacceptable?

Use budgeting calculators -If the actual data varies from the planned or expected data,

your analysis charts will show variations

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References32

PMBOK Versions 4/5

Media Gallery

Bright Hub PM Project Management Questions.com

Jean Shied & Linda Richter, 5/29/201

Heidi Wiesenfelder , 1, 7/6/2011

Wikipedia

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Managing Projects via Control Charts & Trend Analysis

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