Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed...
Transcript of Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed...
Managing Natural Disasters - Dr. Naveed Anwar 1
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Naveed Anwar, Ph.D. Executive Director, AIT Solutions
Disaster Risk ReductionIncreasing Disaster Resilience through focus on role of engineers
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Disaster Risk Reduction(DRR)
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Disaster
• a sudden event, such as an accident or a natural catastrophe, that causes great damage or loss of life.
• an event or fact that has unfortunate consequences.
• A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.
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There is no such thing as a
'natural' disaster, only natural hazards.
Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) aims to reduce the damage caused by natural hazards like earthquakes, floods, droughts and cyclones,
through an ethic of prevention. Disasters often follow natural hazards.
(UNISDR)
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Disasters due to Natural Hazards
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Disaster Hazard ExposureVulnerability
Risk
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Climate
Change
Environmental
Sustainability
Population
Growth
Urbanization and Un-
planned
development
Inappropriate
Built
Environment
Lack of Resources
for Communities
Lack of post-event management and recovery, and re-bound capacity
Natural
Phenomena
Disaster Hazard Exposure Vulnerability
Increased Consequences
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Disaster Risk
• The potential disaster losses, in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets and services, which could occur to a particular community or a society over some specified future time period.
• A probability or threat of damage, injury, liability, loss, or any other negative occurrence that is caused by external or internal vulnerabilities, and that may be avoided through preemptive action.
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Natural Hazards and their Effects
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Disaster Hazard ExposureVulnerability
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• Hazard
• A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health
impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and
services, social and economic disruption, or
environmental damage.
• Hydrometeorological hazard
• Process or phenomenon of atmospheric, hydrological or oceanographic nature that may cause loss of life, injury or
other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods
and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage.
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Typical Natural Hazards
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https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/which-natural-disasters-hit-most-frequently/
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Earthquakes
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Floods
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Landslides
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Wind Storms and Related
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Probability and Intensity of Hazards
• The chance of something happening (or not happening)
• For natural hazards, measured in “return period”
• Frequent events: 10% chance of happening in 50 years
• Rare Events: 2% Chance of happening in 2500 years
• Frequent events are of normally smaller intensity
• Rare events are often high intensity
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Hazard Assessment
• when and where hazardous processes have occurred in the past.
• the severity of the physical effects of past hazardous processes (magnitude).
• the frequency of occurrence of hazardous processes.
• the likely effects of a process of a given magnitude if it were to occur now.
• and, making all this information available in a form useful to planners and public officials responsible for making decisions in event of a disaster.
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Vulnerability and Exposure
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What makes a Hazard turn to a Disaster
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Disaster Hazard ExposureVulnerability
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Vulnerability
• The characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard.
• Weaknesses in the system, community infrastructure
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Exposure
• Elements exposed to hazard, that have the potential be damaged
• People, property, systems,
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Risk Reduction
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What can we do to reduce the effects of a hazard
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Disaster Resilience
• ‘the ability of countries, communities and households to manage change, by maintaining or transforming living standards in the face of shocks or stresses – such as earthquakes, drought or violent conflict – without compromising their long-term prospects’. DFID (2011a, 6)
• ‘the capacity of a system, community or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt, by resisting or changing in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure’. Hyogo Framework of Action (UNISDR,
2005b, 4):
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Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)
• aims to reduce the damage caused by natural hazards like earthquakes, floods, droughts and cyclones, through an ethic of prevention. Disasters often follow natural hazards. Adisaster's severity depends on how much impact a hazard has on society and the environment.
• The concept and practice of reducing disaster risks through systematic efforts to analyse and manage the causal factors of disasters, including through reduced exposure to hazards, lessened vulnerability of people and property, wise management of land and the environment, and improved preparedness for adverse events.
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Disaster Risk Management (DRM)
• DRM• The systematic process of using administrative directives,
organizations, and operational skills and capacities to implement strategies, policies and improved coping capacities in order to lessen the adverse impacts of hazards and the possibility of disaster
• DRR and DRM• The policy objective of anticipating and reducing risk is called
disaster risk reduction (DRR). Although often used interchangeably with DRR, disaster risk management (DRM) can be thought of as the implementation of DRR, since it describes the actions that aim to achieve the objective of reducing risk.
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• Mitigation
• The lessening or limitation of the adverse impacts of hazards and related
disasters.
• Residual risk
• The risk that remains in unmanaged form, even when effective disaster
risk reduction measures are in place, and for which emergency response
and recovery capacities must be maintained.
• Resilience
• The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist,
absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a
timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and
restoration of its essential basic structures and functions.
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Structural and non-structural measures
• Structural measures:
• Any physical construction to reduce or avoid possible impacts of hazards, or application of engineering
techniques to achieve hazard-resistance and resilience in
structures or systems;
• Non-structural measures:
• Any measure not involving physical construction that uses
knowledge, practice or agreement to reduce risks and impacts, in particular through policies and laws, public
awareness raising, training and education.
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How do we reduce risk?
•The outright avoidance of adverse impacts of hazards and related disasters (often less costly than disaster relief and response). For instance, relocating exposed people and assets away from a hazard area.Prevention
•The lessening or limitation of the adverse impacts of hazards and related disasters. For instance, constructing flood defences, planting trees to stabilize slopes and implementing strict land use and building construction codes.Mitigation
•The process of formally or informally shifting the financial consequences of particular risks from one party to another whereby a household, community, enterprise or state authority will obtain resources from the other party after a disaster occurs, in exchange for ongoing or compensatory social or financial benefits provided to that other party. For instance, insurance.
Transfer
•The knowledge and capacities of governments, professional response and recovery organisations, communities and individuals to effectively anticipate, respond to, and recover from the impacts of likely, imminent or current hazard events or conditions. For instance, installing early warning systems, identifying evacuation routes and preparing emergency supplies.
Preparedness
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Established in 1999 as a dedicated secretariat to facilitate the implementation of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR).It is mandated by the United Nations General Assembly resolution (56/195), to serve as the focal point in the United Nations system for the coordination of disaster reduction and to ensure synergies among the disaster reduction activities of the United Nations system and regional organizations and activities in socio‐economic and humanitarian fields. It is an organisational unit of the UN Secretariat and is led by the UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction (SRSG).
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DR, Built Environment and Structural Engineering
Role of Structural Design in Disaster Resilience
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The Place of Structural Eningeering
• Engineering
• Civil Engineering
• Structural Engineering
• Civil-Structural Engineering
• Architectural Structural Engineering
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The Role of Structural Engineers
• To help in the creation of the safe built environment
• Nothing can function, if structural engineers do not do their job well
• Every other professional “Depends” on the role of structural engineers
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All systems absolutely need Structures
• Transportation systems
• Telecommunication systems
• Electricity and power systems
• Water supply, waste water systems
• Irrigation and agricultural systems
• Mining, oil, gas, offshore platforms
• Industrial plants, piping and process
• Housing, commercial Businesses
• Public Buildings
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Building/Structural System
Materials
Products
Components
System
Manufacturing
Fabrication, Forming
Assembly
Construction
ErectionAssembly
Integration
DR needs to be considered at various levels and contexts
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Built
Environment
Vulnerability to
Disasters
Environmental
Impact
Climate Change
(CC)
Increased
Hazard
Disaster Consequences
Environmental
Sustainability
(ES)
Disaster
Resilience
(DR)
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DR and ES – Need for Integration
Disaster Resilience
• Wind, Storms, Hurricanes
• Earthquakes
• Landslides
• Floods
• Volcanos
• Snow, Fire, Wild Fire
• ---
Environmental Sustainability
• Water Conservation
• Energy Conservation
• Soil Conservation
• Resources Conservation
• Pollution
• ----
• (Reduce, Recycle, Reuse, Renew, …)
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Role of Structural Design in DR
• The primary purpose of structural design is to ensure safety
• The secondary purposes are to ensure serviceability and durability
• Deflections, vibrations
• Complete the service life
• Water resistance
• All combined into ensure “Performance”
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Progression of Structural Design Approaches
• Code Based Design (CBD)
• Performance Based Design (PBD)
• Risk Based Design (RBD)
• Consequence Based Engineering (CBE)
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Structural Response and DR
Structural Displacement
Load
ing
Seve
rity
Resta
urant
Resta
urant
Resta
urant
Ha
zard
Vulnerability
Consequenc
es
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Restaurant Restaurant
Resta
uran
t
Operational (O) Immediate Occupancy (IO) Life Safety (LS) Collapse Prevention (CP)
0 % Damage or Loss 99 %
Ref: FEMA 451 B
CasualtiesLowest Highest
Rehab Cost to Restore after eventLowest Highest
Build or Retrofit Cost to Minimize ConsequencesHighest Lowest
Downtime for RehabLowest Highest
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Designing for Land Slide Hazard
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Designing for Land Slide Hazard
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Planning for Flood Risk
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Ensuring DR and Durability
• Lab testing• Testing of materials
• Testing of components
• Testing of assemblies
• Full Scale testing
• Numerical modeling and simulations• Advanced modeling
• Model calibration and verification
• Application to real projects
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DR Verification and Application
Calibration of Wall Connection for Finite Element
Analysis
Full 3D Finite Element Modeling of Typical House
Evaluate the Seismic Performance Acceptance
Experimental Study of Bearing wall Panel and Wall
Connections.
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Calibration Process
Test Model FE Model
Connection to test
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Localization Effects on DR
FoundationsResponse Spectrum
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Innovative Housing Technology
Building Cleaner, Greener, Safer and Cost effective Housing
communities
HABITECH SOLUTION
Green & Sustainable
Simple Technique
Cost Effective
Long Term Durability
Disaster Resilient
Local Resources
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HABITECH SOLUTION
Green & Sustainable
Simple Technique
Cost Effective
Long Term Durability
Disaster Resilient
Local Resources
Disaster Resilience
• Durability - High
• Earthquakes - High
• Hurricanes – Very High
• Floods - High• Water resistant
• Fire - High
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Unit Tests
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Full Wall Tests - Static
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Wall Test - Cyclic
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Numerical Simulations
Maximum vertical stress at the Bottom brick layer
1 story house
•0.065 MPa at gravity load•0.1 MPa with lateral load
2 story house
•0.117 MPa at gravity load•0.22 MPa with lateral load
Compressive strength of the wall panel= 2.71 MPa
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