Managing Climate Change in the Horticulture Industry · Managing Climate Change in the Horticulture...

Managing Climate Change in the Horticulture Industry

Biosecurity and Market Access

CHAF Agribusiness Summit

Jean-Philippe Aurambout, Kyla Finlay, Fiona

Constable, Bonny van Rijswijk, and Jo Luck

Cooperative Research Centre for

NATIONAL PLANT BIOSECURITY

OUR RURAL LANDSCAPE

• Citrus canker spread through 220,000 acres commercial citrus in Florida ($US180m)

• In January 2006, USDA declared that citrus canker was impossible to eradicate

• Bacteria were able to move across 600 m quarantine zones

• USDA reviewing eradication policy in light of this event

Ft. Denaud, FL 2005

Sth Florida, 2005

Hurricane Wilma

DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRIES

Review of the impacts of climate change on plant biosecurity

1. Identified the major climate changes most likely to influence the behaviour and distribution of plant pests and diseases

2. Developed three case studies to understand and illustrate the impact of climate change on key plant pests and diseases

3. Reviewed the modelling tools used to study climate change and its influence on plant biosecurity

4. Identified the knowledge gaps in this area

Prepared by

Jean-Philippe AuramboutFiona Constable

Jo LuckVictor Sposito

May 2006

“Wheat Field Under Threatening Skies" by Vincent van Gogh

The Impacts of Climate Change on Plant Biosecurity




1. Increasing temperature

2. Increasing CO2

3. Increased severe weather events

4. Decreasing Frosts

Climate Change factors likely to influence pests and diseases

Increasing temperature


An increase in average annual temperature of 1-6 °C by 2070 over most of Australia

An increase in the average number of extreme hot days and decrease in the average number of extreme cold days

• Shift in the sequence of budburst, flowering, pollination and fruit set

• For some crops, a larger span of harvesting dates may result in market supply for a longer period of the year.

• Lower average winter temperatures will result in reduced accumulation of chill hours necessary for some crops to break dormancy which can result in reduced yield and quality, depending on variety.

• Hotter summers may increase heat stress and moisture loss

DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRIES Plant growth


For some crops, warming will have a negative impact on crop growth and yield eg. onion (Bindi and Hovenden, 2005) but for crops such as carrots a positive impact on growth and yield is expected (Wheeler et al. 1996; Wurr et al. 1998).

For cool-season vegetable crops such as cauliflower, large temperature increases may decrease production during the summer period in dry areas due to decreased crop quality (Olesen and Grevsen 1993).

For many field-grown vegetable crops in Europe, increasing temperature will generally be beneficial, with production expanding out of the presently cultivated areas (Bindi and Hovenden, 2005)

Production and Yield

Increase over- wintering populations of pests and pathogens

Shorter life-cycles and more generations - Increasing populations

Early ripening of crop may shift pest/host dynamic

Historical geographic ranges will generally shift southwards

Reduced plant defense responses

DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRIES Pests and diseases

Increasing CO2


Atmospheric CO2 is predicted to continue to rise to 1.5ppm annually

Increasing atmospheric CO2

Increased feeding under high CO2 eg serrated tussock moth

Reduced escape response from predator

Reduced aggressiveness of pathogens eg. Fungal anthracnose


• Increased photosynthesis leading to increased growth and yield

• Increased waxes, terpenoid and phenolics, increased resistance

• Greater water-use efficiency due to partial closing of stomata under high CO2

• Less well understood how increased CO2 interacts with light, temperature, soil and other environmental factors


Increasing CO2 and plants

High CO2 and reduced frost tolerance

• Eucalyptus pauciflora Sieb. ex Spreng grown at high CO2

near Canberra, sustained much higher frost damage than seedlings grown at ambient CO2.

• Lutze et al (2005)


Increasing CO2 and Soil

• High CO2 increased soil weathering, potentially increasing eg. alkalinity or salinity

(Andrews and Schleisinger, 2004)


High CO2 and low water availability

• Corymbia maculata

UWS Hawkesbury campus (Jann Conroy)


Reduced damage to plant parts

Reduced bacterial and fungal infection points

Increased survival of cold sensitive pests or pathogens

Earlier flowering due to increasing temperatures may increase susceptibility to late frosts


M. Longstroth, MSU 2007

Decreasing Frosts

Hurricanes and Cyclones

Increased winds, driving rains and damaged plants will enable widespread dispersal of spores, cells and insects

Cyclone Larry, Innisfail Qld 2006

Citrus crop after Katrina, New Orleans, 2005

An increase in maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones of 5-10% in some parts of the globe by 2100 (CSIRO).


Favours widespread dispersal of fungal and bacterial infections

More frequent El Niño Southern Oscillation events will result in more pronounced cycle of prolonged drought and heavy rains

Floods

Drought

1. Reduced plant vigour and increased susceptibility to pests and diseases

2. Reduced bacterial and fungal infections

3. Reduction in soil-borne disease

A decrease in annual average rainfall in the south-west, the south east and Queensland and an overall drying trend for Australia

Case Studies


Increased winter temperatures-increase over-wintering and survival of insect

Shift in geographic range

Increased winds may increase dispersal

However, drought or intense rainfall could disrupt whitefly development and limit its population size and distribution in some regions

One of the most important pests in subtropical and tropical agriculture and greenhouse production systems worldwide.

Feeding damage and virus vector

DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRIESSilverleaf WhiteflyBemisia tabaci biotype B

Increasing temperature may limit spore survival

Increased winds associated with severe weather events may result in more widespread dispersal of spores

Increasing CO2 may increase biomass of wheat and infection surface area

A serious pathogen in wheat growing regions world-wide

DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRIES Wheat stripe rustPuccinia striiformis

Source: TR Gottwald

Citrus Canker Xanthomonas axonopodis

pv. citri

Wind and rain are critical to pathogen dispersal

Citrus canker’s geographic range is predicted to shift to more southerly coastal and inland regions

Riverland, Riverina and Sunraysia would become favourable

0°C increase + irrigation

5 °C increase + irrigation

B. Van Rijswijk, unpublished

Significant disease of citrus worldwide



Bluetongue

Arbovirus of sheep causing fever, swelling tongue and lips, haemorrhaging, lameness, wool break.

Vectored by biting midge, Culicoides brevitarsus

Key market access threat for Victoria

In recent years, three new South East Asian strains have entered the Northern Territory, but these have not spread beyond the Top End.

+6oC

Culicoides brevitarsis

Predicted distribution under increasing temperature


The pest and disease triangle

PEST

HOST

ENVIRONMENT


Adult psyllid population

1990 2030 2070

100,000

100


FACE( Free Air CO2 Enrichment)

• Investigate the effects of elevated CO2 on pest and pathogen biology (grains model) using the FACE facility at Horsham (wheat and canola)

• The effect of increased CO2 on Soil processes and plant health

University of Arizona FACE in wheat fields


DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRIES Opportunities

Planting new or alternative varieties-low chill, drought and/or temperature tolerant, disease resistant

Markets negatively affected by severe

weather eventseg -Wilma, Florida citrus

Larry, Qld bananas

Responding to the impacts of climate change

1. Understanding risks

Case studies

Predictive modelling and scenarios

Experimental studies.

2. Developing strategies to respond the risks

Review and redefine existing policies

Decision-support frameworks, predictive tools

Identification of key disease threats under future climate change scenarios

Citrus canker

eradication post Wilma, FL


Managing Climate Change in the Horticulture Industry · Managing Climate Change in the Horticulture...

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