M&S SUPPORT TO DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND HUMANITARIAN ...

NATO MODELLING & SIMULATION CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE

NATO M&S COE Piazza Villoresi, 1 – 00143 Rome (Italy) www.mscoe.org

M&S SUPPORT TO DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND HUMANITARIAN LOGISTICS:

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

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mailto:[email protected]



AGENDA

• Natural, Man-made Disasters, Climate Change• Disaster Management and Humanitarian Logistics• Challenges in Interagency Interaction• M&S Support Opportunities• Conclusions



DISASTERS• Increasing number and impact of man-made and natural disasters

• Man-made disasters: fire, transportation accidents, nuclear & radiation, chemical, biological, bioterrorism, conflict/terrorism

• Natural disasters: hydrological (floods, tsunami), meteorological (blizzards, cyclonic storms), earthquakes, avalanches, volcanic eruptions

• Climate change exacerbates security challenges (threats to key natural resources, costal areas, megacities, basic needs such as food, water, shelter, health)

A search team managed to rescue an earthquake survivor (exercise in Bulgaria). © European Union/ECHO



DISASTER MANAGEMENT• An emergency is an event that can

be managed at local level using available resources

• A disaster is characterized by impacts that exceed the capabilities of local (national) responders and place demands on resources not available locally

An event is declared as a "disaster" when there is need for outside assistance (UN-SPIDER)

Eunavfor Med mission fully operational.Rome, 27 July 2015



DISASTER MANAGEMENT CYCLEDecision-making processes complexity

- many decision-makers and actors - difficult tasks in different scenarios- severe time pressure- high uncertainty: sparse, conflicting and often

incomplete information- physical obstacles, degraded environment

Humanitarian Assistance (HA) is a mission for the affected nation and UN responsibility UN, UN OCHA may activate its structure of clusters to deliver humanitarian assistance in a coordinated fashion. (UN-SPIDER, 2015). NATO military capabilities may be deployed in support of Civil authority.

http://www.unocha.org/what-we-do/coordination-tools/cluster-coordination



HUMANITARIAN LOGISTICSDisaster Relief is about 80 % logistics through slick, efficient and effective logistics operations and more precisely, supply chain management. Logistics can mean the difference between a successful or failed operation (Van Wassenhove, 2006)

Humanitarian logistics vs business logistics: large and changing set of suppliers, very low predictability of demand



MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING• Humanitarian and military

logistics will meet in a complex emergency

• Achieving a mutual understanding in advance of an event can help reduce the challenges when both are engaged in responding to a crisis

• Both communities have to engage and develop ways of working together



CHALLENGES IN INTERAGENCY INTERACTION

MCDC FMN Civ-Mil – Conceptual Model – HA/DR Problem space

Desired end state: military forces must plan and train to effectively perform in an unclassified environment with civilian entities. Military will be able to execute crisis action planning to include Civ-Mil Information Exchange

Gaps have been identified by MCDC FMCM:Information exchange requirements/standard for support of the Civ Mil operations



M&S SUPPORT

• NATO and national military regularly use simulation in training, exercises and support to operations

• NATO Modelling and Simulation vision: to exploit M&S to its full potential

to enhance operational and cost effectiveness. The vision leads to a NATO cooperative effort guided by the principles:

– Synergy

– Interoperability

– Reuse

– Affordability

• Military M&S application areas include

Support to Operations, Capability Development, Mission Rehearsal,

Training and Education, Procurement



MILITARY SIMULATION

Category People Systems

Live Real Real

Virtual Real Simulated

Constructive Simulated Simulated

NATO has categorized simulations: live, virtual and constructive

from 2002 the Southeastern Europe Defence ministerial (SEDM) has organised SEESIM series of interagency exercises and provided M&S capability to support interagency exercises due to lack of M&S in the civilian organisations (reduced budget, availability of skilled manpower, time, different business model)



Urbanisation, originally identified in the Strategic Foresight Analysis, and three Urbanisation instability situations identified by the Framework for Future Alliance Operations: Disruptive impact of Mass Migration; Inner City Turmoil; and Large Scale Natural Disaster.



M&S REQUIREMENTS FOR EMERGENCY• Team Building: effective responders have to be capable of operating

as a coherent team, speed means saved lives

• Prepare to mount a large-scale emergency response

• Operations environment: sparse/conflicting information

• Logistical, financial, physical obstacles

All plans need to be tested

The key to effective training and exercises is

– simulation of realistic situations and events

– a process to collect and share Best Practices and Lessons Learned

https://www.wfp.org/aid-professionals/blog/simulation-exerciseswhy-not-just-read-manualSimulation Exercises....

By Jane Standley — 15 Sep2010



M&S TOOLS FOR EMERGENCYClassification for M&S tools using some of the efforts.

Typical use: constructive simulation to train Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) leaders and staff – Virtual simulation to train first responders

The tools need to be integrated together to reduce the time and effort for their use.

Challenges need to be addressed

• Disaster Impact Modelling Tools:• Emergency Response Planning Tools• Tools For Emergency Response Training • Tools for Identification and Detection

• Cost: high cost of transferring data between different simulations a• Labour: model development requires intensive work• Skills: building models from “scratch” requires skilled staff • Time: is a time-consuming effort



MODELS FOR EMERGENCY • DeMIST (Disaster Management Interoperability

Simulation and Training) to prepare WFP staff to respond quickly and cohesively to a wide range of emergencies, realistically simulating disaster response, test plans, find gaps, familiarise with processes and information flows

• GRCM (Generic Response Capability Model) corporate strategic preparedness tool for WFP comprehensive emergency readiness planning (details a response scenario, outlines realistic targets and maps out the required capabilities)



MASA SWORD• Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based

aggregated, constructive sim for training logistics commanders and provide analysis and decision support for military and crisis managers.

• Highly realistic scenarios, an open sim platform interoperable with other sims and C2, deployable via distant servers (in the cloud).

• Sword was used by WFP, UNDP, the national Civil Defence and Red Cross in a simulation exercise in Peru, Oct 2012 to optimize the logistics chain for the distribution of humanitarian help and food relief



JTLS• Interactive, internet-enabled sim

that models multi-sided air, ground and naval civil-military ops with logistical, Special Operation Force (SOF) and intelligence

• Limited nuclear and chemical effects, low-intensity conflict, pre-conflict operations, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations, major area flooding from a dam breach, hurricaneaffecting a coastal environment.

• Relief efforts can be attempted and assessed

• Medical support and evacuation of civilians can be evaluated; logistics issues such as supplies, stock levels, availability of food and medicine may be represented



GESI-EM• Environment for emergency managers to

plan, test and train response strategies

• Logistical considerations (fuel consumption and supply, repair, medical care, etc ) influenced by the response of the emergency forces

• Orders are simulated and managers are able to see the impact of their decisions

• Emergency plans can be adjusted to address any resource gaps

• Wide range of natural disasters (earthquakes, hurricanes, wildfires, and flooding) and man-made disasters (accidents in chemical plants, train or plane crashes, terror, poison gas attacks or bomb attacks, threats on critical infrastructures, etc..)

http://www.cae.com/uploadedFiles/Content/BusinessUnit/Defence_and_Security/Media_Centre/Document/datasheet.GESIsimulation.pdf



CONCLUSIONS• Realistic M&S (constructive for Staff, virtual for first responders )

tactical level, logistics modelling, accurate civilian unit prototypes

• Information Exchange (FMN Civ-Mil, multi-level security, Interoperable Languages i.e. NIEM…)

• Sharing Best Practices and Lessons Learned between civilian and military (M&S Community of Interest on JALLC portal)

as key enablers to effective interagency interaction for training of emergency operations centres’ staff and responders and in preparation of operations (planning and mission rehearsal)

• Development of Crisis Disasters and Emergency Management ARCHITETURAL FRAMEWORKS to support CD&E, Training and Exercise



IA ModelsCity Model

Virtual Sim(immersive)

Constructive Sim

Individual/Collective Training

Role Players

Collective Training

Emergency operation center, Senior Officers/Commanders, staff and liason officers

Virtual WorldsSim

Live Sim

NegotiatorsTeam

Commanders

Special tasks Operators (Pilots, firefighters, Police, Ambulance...), drivers (special veichles)...

Response Cells

SIMWORLD

NATO URBANISATION PROJECT – MSaaS LVC EXP ARCHITECTURE SUPPORTING PUBLIC ORDER MANAGEMENT

SCENARIOS (CITY TURMOILS)

C2ISGESI EM

JTLS

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