Male Batam CityProjection Illustrationing

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Population Projection model (females) Table 1: Base population and Component Fertility Age ASFRs Age Births 0-4 63,479 0-4 5-9 47,636 5-9 10-14 29,935 10-14 15-19 26,715 5,439 0.18016 15-19 20-24 58,148 22,613 0.31873 20-24 25-29 71,595 28,060 0.39059 25-29 30-34 63,834 16,509 0.27698 30-34 35-39 47,865 9,235 0.23434 35-39 40-44 32,198 1,277 0.05768 40-44 45-49 17,981 371 0.02987 45-49 50-54 10,770 50-54 55-59 6,677 55-59 60-64 3,690 60-64 65-69 2,036 65-69 70-74 1,151 70+ 75+ 851 Total 484,561 TFR 7.4418 Table 2 Projected Births Age 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 15-19 27,899 40,829 57,472 130,398 204,098 20-24 77,268 68,646 91,504 120,925 249,844 25-29 141,324 124,010 113,475 141,404 177,352 30-34 104,088 120,825 108,699 101,321 120,881 35-39 70,182 97,227 111,044 101,034 94,943 40-44 11,616 17,283 23,685 26,955 24,586 45-49 3,733 5,921 8,699 11,836 13,438 436,109 474,742 514,577 633,872 885,143 Base year population (2010) Total births 2001 Births: dependent on information in Table 5 so will contain zero cells until Table 5 is completed. To calculate projected births to women aged 15-19 in the five years to 2006: find the average number of women in the age group 15-19 during 2001-2006. Multiply by the average ASFR. Total births

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Transcript of Male Batam CityProjection Illustrationing

Sheet1Population Projection model (females)Table 1: Base population and Components of changeBase year population (2010)FertilityMortalityMigrationSurvival ratios or proportion surviving to next age groupAgeTotal births 2001ASFRsAgePopulationMigrantsAnnual net migration, females by age 2001Age Structure of Net Migration (proportions)Births0.981550-463,4790-40.999740.999871,2000.013505-947,6365-90.999650.999833,2040.0360510-1429,93510-140.999410.999716,7430.0758815-1926,7155,4390.1801615-190.999240.9996215,4010.1733120-2458,14822,6130.3187320-240.997050.9985319,2700.2168525-2971,59528,0600.3905925-290.987630.9938220,1520.2267730-3463,83416,5090.2769830-340.975700.9878512,3970.1395035-3947,8659,2350.2343435-390.961650.980833,0120.0338940-4432,1981,2770.0576840-440.946300.973152,0010.0225245-4917,9813710.0298745-490.905500.952751,6890.0190150-5410,77050-540.847120.923561,2340.0138955-596,67755-590.772140.886071,1700.0131760-643,69060-640.760990.880506770.0076265-692,03665-690.680660.840334030.0045370-741,15170+0.660900.830453120.0035175+851Total484,561TFR7.441888,8651.00000Table 2 Projected BirthsTable 3 Projected SurvivorsAge20062011201620212026Age20062011201620212026e.g age group 0-4 in 2001 yields survivors aged 5-9 in 2006, while those aged 70+ yields survivors aged 75+ in 2006. The figures for 2006 are obtained by multiplying the 2001 population at each age by the corresponding survival ratio. And 2011 is 2006 population * survival ratioBirths: dependent on information in Table 5 so will contain zero cells until Table 5 is completed. To calculate projected births to women aged 15-19 in the five years to 2006: find the average number of women in the age group 15-19 during 2001-2006. Multiply by the average ASFR.5-963,462208,757227,249246,318303,42210-1447,61964,385209,628228,115247,17615-1927,89940,82957,472130,398204,09815-1929,91750,11366,869212,027230,50220-2477,26868,64691,504120,925249,84420-2426,69535,20155,38172,124217,17125-29141,324124,010113,475141,404177,35225-2957,97638,70747,18867,30984,00330-34104,088120,825108,699101,321120,88130-3470,70972,22953,19861,57381,44535-3970,18297,227111,044101,03494,94335-3962,28384,38485,86667,29775,47040-4411,61617,28323,68526,95524,58640-4446,02969,17190,42491,85073,99345-493,7335,9218,69911,83613,43845-4930,46945,76067,65987,77089,11950-5416,28228,97942,82462,65480,86555-599,12314,86625,62237,35154,14960-645,1567,73812,17220,47729,53465-692,8084,5456,5109,88416,20470-741,3862,2313,4134,7517,047Total births75+1,3232,1023,1754,6656,534436,109474,742514,577633,872885,143471,239729,165997,1781,274,1651,596,636Table 4 Net migration: Projected SurvivorsAge20102015202020252030Total70,00070,00070,00070,00070,000Decide the total net migration for each 5-year time, and type the figure at the top of ech column. E.g 250 000 every five years or 50 000 every year. Here net migration refers to that of persons aged five years and over at the end of th eperiod; migrant children born in the interval are treatd here as part of natural increase. Table 3 includes births both to the existing population and to migrant women. The total net migration is distributed across the age groups by multiplying the total net migration for the period by the proportion in each age group. Finally the estimated migrants in each age group are multiplied by the survival ratio of migrants to obtain the numbers surviving at the end of the interval.5-994594594594594510-142,5232,5232,5232,5232,52315-195,3105,3105,3105,3105,31020-2412,12712,12712,12712,12712,12725-2915,15715,15715,15715,15715,15730-3415,77615,77615,77615,77615,77635-399,6479,6479,6479,6479,64740-442,3272,3272,3272,3272,32745-491,5341,5341,5341,5341,53450-541,2681,2681,2681,2681,26855-5989889889889889860-6481781781781781765-6947047047047047070-7426726726726726775+2042042042042040.0Table 5: Base population and Population ProjectionsAge2010201520202025203020350-463,479208,811227,309246,382303,501423,8115-947,63664,408209,702228,195247,263304,36710-1429,93550,14366,908212,152230,638249,70015-1926,71535,22755,42372,179217,337235,81220-2458,14838,82247,32767,50884,251229,29825-2971,59573,13353,86462,34582,46699,15930-3463,83486,48588,00468,97377,34997,22135-3947,86571,92994,03095,51376,94485,11640-4432,19848,35671,49892,75194,17776,32045-4917,98132,00347,29469,19289,30490,65350-5410,77017,54930,24644,09263,92182,13355-596,67710,02115,76426,52038,24955,04760-643,6905,9728,55412,98921,29430,35065-692,0363,2785,0146,97910,35416,67470-741,1511,6532,4983,6805,0177,31475+8511,5272,3063,3794,8696,738(70+/)2,0023,1804,8037,0589,88614,052Total484,561749,3181,025,7421,312,8281,646,9342,089,714source: adapted from Don Rowland (2003) Demographic methods and concepts.Oxford: Oxford University Press

Derive the female population aged 0-4 in any year from the total births for that year from Table 2. Eg. In 2006=1395676. To get which are the female births (rather than total births), assume a sex ratio e.g 105and multiply the total births by the ratio (100/205) to get only the female births. Multiply this by the survival ratio for births.Obtain the projected population aged 5-9 in 2006 by adding together the corresponding cells in Table 2 and Table 4 and copy down formula.

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