Making things – transforming resources (Chris McMahon)
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Chris McMahon
[email protected], 20 November 2014
Prepare for Change - The Future of Work: Manufacturing
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Three scenarios for Bristol in 2034
Subject: How might manufacturing reorganise due to new
technologies and the effects on employment, workplaces and
their locations.
Approach: to present three scenarios for the way manufacturing
might develop in Bristol over the next 20 years, told by someone
looking back and reflecting in the year 2035.
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Scenario 1 – Business As Usual?
The reduction in the oil price in 2014 was short-lived, and from
the middle of 2015 the price of oil moved past $100/barrel as
world growth recovered.
The oil price, together with Obama’s agreement with Xi Jinping
to restrict carbon emissions, led to great pressures to achieve
improvements in air and road transport efficiencies to which
Bristol’s industries were well-placed to respond, thanks to new
manufacturing technologies and systems.
New computer-based manufacturing systems allowed
manufacturing to flourish in other respects, and again Bristol’s
industries were well placed to respond.
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Excerpt from Metal Additive Manufacturing, produced by
University of Sheffield, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYs-
Av_HbWs
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http://www.metal-am.com/articles/002733.htmlhttp://d2n4wb9orp1vta.cloudfront.net/resources/images/cdn/cms/am1208_geaviation_1.jpg
New metal additive manufacturing technologies revolutionised
aerospace and other manufacture and together with composite
materials allowed the next generation of ultra-light weight aircraft
to be developed
Wikipedia
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The growing demand from China and India meant that Europe’s
aircraft industry was busier than ever before
http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/photogallery/big/800x600_1341561286_Concept_Plane_Hong_Kong.jpg
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The new technologies also prompted development of small
enterprises through ‘maker’ centres
http://kwmc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/IMAG0155-1006x250.jpg
http://3d.alexgibson.net/
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Expertise in composites and in electric motor technologies led to a
spin-out from Bristol University developing an ultra-low energy
consumption electric vehicle
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While advanced composites and a streamlined body were also
incorporated in a radical design from Bristol's caravan makers
http://cdn.csuk-solutions.net/uploads/73/5628446-knaus-tabberts-concept-van-stars-in-dusseldorf-1.jpg
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Robots were ever more widely used, in manufacturing, but also in
maintenance, in healthcare and increasingly in the home
http://www.bristol.ac.uk/media-library/sites/news/2014/may/easyjetdrone-article.jpg
http://s3files.core77.com/blog/spycye_small1.jpghttp://i.ytimg.com/vi/n-rBITMCGqM/0.jpg
http://www.brl.ac.uk/images/assisted%20living%20banner.jpg
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Scenario 2 – Decline or Collapse?
The reduction in the oil price in 2014 led to failure of a number of
shale oil companies which combined with unwinding of record
speculative bets on oil prices exacerbated debt-related problems
in the financial sector and wider economy.
This further contributed to poor growth in East Asia,
accompanied by deflation, which led to growing unemployment
and civil unrest in China, Korea and Japan.
The unrest had knock-on effects in Europe both in reduced
exports of manufactured goods and disruption to supply chains
of key economic goods.
The faltering recovery in Europe was halted, destroying plans for
investment in high-tech industries
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Scenario 2 – Decline or Collapse
Low oil prices in 2014 led to the failure of many US ‘tight oil’
companies, and tension with Russia and renewed conflict in the
Middle East led in the late teens to an oil and gas supply crisis.
Oil was rationed in European countries, leading to a crisis in the
car industry. Worries about road transport led to regular panic
buying. The collapse of many airlines led to a large reduction in
new aircraft orders.
Cracks in ageing British nuclear reactors caused them to be shut
down, leading to regular winter power cuts rendering ‘smart’
technologies inoperable.
Business failures led to further economic turmoil and a second
great depression.
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Panic buying, deserted streets
http://gb.fotolibra.com/images/previews/604436-park-street-bristol.jpeghttp://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oPzh3b1uKjg/T3RdSG8SBPI/AAAAAAAACpg/O3JZqKJcg2M/s1600/1049602.jpg
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Panic buying
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/12/05/article-1335812-0C51DA1D000005DC-22_964x550.jpg
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Airline failures led to a collapse in new-build sales; sales of
capital equipment also declined precipitously
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sbAxY8Je_cM/TXVDqrtIV7I/AAAAAAAAACo/xZ2mOVrR0pE/s1600/airbus.jpg
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Nuclear power in crisis
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/06/20/article-2005977-0CA4C4F600000578-245_468x371.jpg
http://www.imeche.org/images/default-source/pe-news-width-454/8118_36cf0db149002263df88f337bf7d596a_454x250.jpg
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Interruptions in energy supply made technologies dependent
on networked devices useless
http://www.rinnovabili.it/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/3Bristol.jpg
http://www.architecturecentre.co.uk/assets/images/exhibition_image_pairs/smartcity%20full.jpg
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Scenario 3 – Managed Transition
The severe flooding in the winter of 2016-17 led to a belated call
for action on climate. That and the mini-oil crisis of 2019 led to
public demands for a swift transition away from a fossil fuel
based economy.
The changes manifested themselves in four ways:
• A rapid move away from oil-based transport except for
essential services – rail, bus, agriculture and some truck
• Re-purposing of industries
• Emphasis on product-service-systems
• Emphasis on the circular economy, salvage, use of waste
Although painful in the short term, employment increased and
the population found itself leaner and fitter
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The aerospace industry used its ‘lightweight structures’
skills on an ultra-lightweight electric bus
http://ecofriend.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/autotram_inztl.jpg
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Many cities adopted personal rapid transit systems,
based on Bristol’s Ultra PRT . . .
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Low energy building materials based on Bath University
research led to a new industry
Source: Euro-cell project website
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Servitisation
Product-service
systems - combinations
of products and
services, with the
emphasis on “sale of
use” rather than “sale of
product”
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Neighbor doorknob hanger.
Photo Credit: Candy Chang.Car sharing - Zipcars in Bristol
Servitisation; sharing economy
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The circular economy
http://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/
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Circular economy: reclamation, recycling
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Wind turbines from scrap
http://cdn.instructables.com/FT1/49A1/GR6ZJMCJ/FT149A1GR6ZJMCJ.LARGE.jpg
https://www.engineeringforchange.org/news/images/May-2011/turbine-1.jpg
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Discussion
Which of these scenarios do you think is closest to the truth?
What are the implications for us personally and for those
planning for our communities?
Before we discuss this I would like to introduce two concepts –
that of ‘dominant designs’ and Kuhn’s notion of normal and
revolutionary science applied to engineering
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Dominant Designs
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Dominant Designs
Dominant designs allow engineering effort and investment to be
concentrated to achieve economies of scale and incremental
improvements in performance.
This happens at multiple scales that include physical, social and
informational elements.
The consequence:
“Industrial economies have been locked into fossil fuel-based
energy systems through a process of technological and institutional
co-evolution driven by path-dependent increasing returns to scale .
. this condition . . creates persistent market and policy failures that
can inhibit the diffusion of carbon-saving technologies” Unruh, 2000
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Normal and revolutionary engineering
Thomas Kuhn suggested that most science is done within the
framework of established scientific paradigms
From time to time these paradigms fail to explain anomalies, and
that leads to scientific revolution
We can consider that there is a similar process in engineering –
most engineers work to improve and develop existing paradigms,
but from time to time they are shown to be anomalous and have to
be replaced through technical revolutions
Our current technologies are clearly anomalous for a number of
reasons. Engineering (and societal) revolution is needed now.