Making Progress on Cleaner Air - OTCAir.org Materials/OTC...Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ -...
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Making Progress on Cleaner Air What We’ve Achieved Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and Where We Need to Go Getting to the New Ozone Standards A Pathway Forward November 10 th , 2010 Sheraton Hotel Boston, MA 11/10/2010 1
Transcript of Making Progress on Cleaner Air - OTCAir.org Materials/OTC...Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ -...
Making Progress on Cleaner Air
What We’ve Achieved Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and Where We Need to Go
Getting to the New Ozone Standards
A Pathway Forward
November 10th, 2010
Sheraton Hotel Boston, MA
11/10/2010 1
Preliminary
11/10/2010
0
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
# Days ≥ 90Fº
CT
MD
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2010
2007
The Bottom Line
Topics Covered
• Brief history of the OTC
• Progress in cleaning the air
• Challenges of the next
decade
• The ozone challenge
• Some good news
We understand the science
of ozone very well
We have real world
experience in what works
We have a clear path
forward
OTC Control Priorities – 80’s to Early 90’s
• Focus was on Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) reductions Stationary sources
• Manufacturing more than the power sector
Mobile source tailpipe standards
Mobile source fuels
OTC LEV as an example
• Paved the way for a National LEV Program
OTC Control Priorities – 1990’s
• Adding nitrogen oxides
(NOx) to the equation
• Beginning to push
super-regional controls
Power plants
Other stationary sources
Mobile source fuels
Tailpipe standards
“OTC NOx Budget
Program” as an example
• Paved the way for the
NOx SIP Call and the
Transport Rule
OTC Control Priorities – 2000’s
• Area sources/VOC and NOx
• More power plants/NOx
• More stationary source/NOx
• More mobile source tailpipe and fuel standards/NOx
• Major focus on “National” programs to reduce transport Ozone improvements resulting
from the 2003/2004 NOx SIP Call were dramatic
More later
OTR High Ozone Day TRENDS (2010 preliminary data [up to September 6])
52
78
71
37
54
67
3430
48
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11
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84
106 105
66
87
92
6057
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66
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34
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0.153
0.131
0.1350.133 0.133
0.137
0.130
0.1230.121
0.130
0.125
0.1120.109
0.115
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# days > 84 ppb # days > 75 ppb MAX 8-hr
Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 9/7/2010
OTR High Ozone Day TRENDS (2010 preliminary data [up to September 6])
52
78
71
37
54
67
3430
48
36
47
26
11
31
84
106 105
66
87
92
6057
88
66
80
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63
0.153
0.131
0.1350.133 0.133
0.137
0.130
0.1230.121
0.130
0.125
0.1120.109
0.115
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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ays
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# days > 84 ppb # days > 75 ppb MAX 8-hr
Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 9/7/2010
Ozone Levels Continue to Drop
Preliminary
11/10/2010
2002
2010
2007
The Ozone Plans for 2010 Worked !!!
The Plan for the
old 1-hour standard
(2005) also
worked
17.1
15.8 15.9
14.5
11
12
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2002 2004 2006 2008*
110 110106
103
9194
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1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
41 41
39
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30
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2002 2004 2006 2008*
181
135 137
151 152147 143
137
126121
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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008*
PM Levels Have Also Dropped
1-Hour Ozone (ppb)
Annual Fine Particulate (μg/m3) Daily Fine Particulate (μg/m3)
8-Hour Ozone (ppb)
Maryland as an Example
Growth and Emission Reductions
Health Benefits Of Clean Air
• According to EPA, the 1990 CAA
Amendments were modeled, nation-wide,
for 2010 to annually prevent:
160,000
premature deaths (aged 30+)
$1.2 trillion
54,000
cases of chronic bronchitis
$24 billion
45,000
cardiovascular hospitalizations
$1.3 billion
41,000
respiratory hospitalizations
$640 million
economic valuations in 2006 dollars
http://www.epa.gov/oar/sect812/prospective2.html
Health Benefits – New Ozone Standard
• 2007 NESCAUM study of potential health benefits in the
OTR associated with a lower ozone NAAQS
Reduced Annual Incidences in the OTR
70ppb 60ppb
ER Visits for Asthma 90 180
Hospital Admissions for All Respiratory Conditions (Elderly and Infants)
910 1,700
School Loss Days 234,000 435,000
Loss of Income due to Decreased Worker Productivity
1,350,000 2,770,000
Deaths 43 – 220 84 – 407
Kleiman, G., P. Miller, I. Kheirbek (2007) “Ozone Standards and Public Health Expanding benefits assessments to include monetized public health benefits.”
Benefits Significantly Outweigh Costs
• New Ozone Standard – Estimated Total
Net Monetary Benefit Across the OTR
Tota
l Be
ne
fit (
Mil
lio
ns
of 2
00
0$
)
NAAQS LevelKleiman, G., P. Miller, I. Kheirbek (2007) “Ozone Standards and Public Health Expanding benefits assessments to include monetized public health benefits.”
A Ten Second Celebration
Significant New Air Quality Challenges
• New lower ozone standard
• Regional transport now a
dominant factor
Incoming ozone will be higher
than the new standard
• Controls – Low and Mid-
hanging fruit is all but gone
Will need to test nontraditional
programs
• Other new standards
• Resource constraints
National Ambient Air Quality Standard - Ozone
• 1997 NAAQS = 85ppb OTC states very close to
complying by 2010 attainment date
• 2008 NAAQS = 75ppb
The reconsideration
Has not been revoked, nor implemented
• 2010 NAAQS = 60 to 70ppb (TBD)
Now set for announcement by 12/31/2010
New Secondary NAAQS = 7 to 15ppm-hours (Also TBD)11/10/2010 16
No Rest for the Weary
11/10/2010 17
Comparing the Old and New
Ozone Standards
Who is in nonattainment under
the old standard?
Who might be nonattainment
under the new standard?
More Reductions Are Needed
• 99 counties will be unable to comply with the upper end of the proposed ozone NAAQS
• EPA’s analysis for the proposed NAAQS identifies that significant additional reductions will be needed
Another 40% in the OTR
Another 60+% in the Midwest
Other Pollutants
• New standards More stringent fine particle
standard on the way
NO2
SO2
Lead
• Mercury
• Climate Change/CO2
reductions
• All in a resource constrained world
• Lots of discussion around multi-pollutant planning
The Path Forward
• We understand the science of ozone better than ever
• We’ve implemented programs that have worked in the real world
• We need a two-part strategy Local (inside the OTR) controls are
still critical • Can help reduce about 1/3 of the ozone
problem in most OTC cities
National/super-regional controls are now essential
• Incoming ozone is already measured at levels above a 60-70 ppb standard
• Regional contribution represents approximately 2/3 of the ozone problem in most OTC cities
1997 8-hr ozone exceedance days(2003-2007)
96 days or appx. 19 days/year
Source: Maryland Department of the Environment
The Science - Three Types of Transport
From the OTC “Conceptual Model”
The Transport Crossroads
Westerly Transport
Sea-breeze
Wall
The Elevated Ozone Reservoir
• Or .. The “Transport Cloud”
• In the morning hours, a large ozone reservoir sits above the Mid-Atlantic Measured with balloons, airplanes and
aloft monitors
Levels in the reservoir reach 60-100 ppb
Levels at the surface are very low
• Around 10-11 AM, when the earth heats up and the nocturnal inversion breaks down, the ozone in the reservoir mixes down to the ground Air quality degrades significantly Ground-level monitors simultaneously
all go to the level measured aloft at night
Represents about 2/3 of the ozone problem in most OTC Cities0
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Ozone (ppb)
He
igh
t (f
t)
Incoming OzoneAugust 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT)
Beltsville, MD
Good Moderate Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Unhealthy
Residual Layer
from 1500 – 6000 ft
of 110 ppb110 ppb
Ozone-reduced surface layer
<< 40 ppb40 ppb
Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University
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He
igh
t (f
t)
Incoming OzoneAugust 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT)
Beltsville, MD
Good Moderate Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
UnhealthyGood Moderate Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Unhealthy
Residual Layer
from 1500 – 6000 ft
of 110 ppb110 ppb
Ozone-reduced surface layer
<< 40 ppb40 ppb
Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University
Residual Layer
from 1500 – 6000 ft
of 110 ppb110 ppb
Ozone-reduced surface layer
<< 40 ppb40 ppb
Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University
How Do We Reduce the Transport Cloud?
• Example: the NOx SIP Call OTAG collaboration in late
90’s
EPA finalizes SIP Call in 1998
Very significant super-regional NOx reductions across the East in the 2003/2004 timeframe
Dramatic drops in ozone levels
• Similar for PM & SO2
controls
55.5%
of Units
22.3%
of Units
2 1 25
18
23
77
50
13
8
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15
6
2 2
2 3 510
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Cumulative Total Units
Controls From the NOx SIP Call
Data courtesy of The Institute of Clean Air Companies (ICAC).
77.8% of Units Installed
between 2003-2007 Scheduled Startup Units
Huge investment in SCR controls in the East
in 2003 and 2004
2
Regional NOx Emission Reductions
1.92
1.22
0.59 0.520.38
0.0
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1.0
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2.0
2.5
1990 2000 2005 2008 2009
Year
Ozo
ne S
easo
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OX (
mil
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.
• Dramatic super-regional NOx emission reductions in the 2003/2004 time frame
• NOx reductions from Tier II/LEV II standards also, very gradually, occurred in this same period
NOx Reductions at NOx Budget Program Sources
Thanks: EPA Clean Air Markets
Reducing Ozone in the Transport Cloud
Ozone in the elevated
reservoir has been
reduced by about 25%
since 2004
Pre/Post Nox SIP Call Benefits
Dramatic Reductions in Ground-Level Ozone
Maryland's 8-Hour Ozone Design Value per Year
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Year
8-H
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Ozone D
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ppb)
8-Hour Ozone Design Value (ppb) 8-Hour Ozone Standard (85 ppb)8-Hour Ozone Standard (75 ppb)
Maryland's 1-Hour Ozone Design Value per Year
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Year
1-H
our
Ozone D
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ppb)
1-Hour Ozone Design Value (ppb) 1-Hour Ozone Standard (125 ppb)
1-Hour and 8-Hour
Ozone Levels Have
Dropped Dramatically
Across the East
Reducing Super-
Regional NOx Emissions
Works !!!
We Need To Push For More
Super-Regional NOx
Reduction Programs
What to Push - The Priority Source Categories
• Local (inside the OTR) controls are still critical
• June 2010 OTC Resolution urged EPA to adopt national rules to reduce regional NOx emissions from: EGUs
Tougher On-Road Vehicle Standards
ICI Boilers
Cement Kilns
Marine Engines
Locomotives
• These categories represent 75 % of the NOx left to regulate
85 % of the SO2 left to regulate
75 % of the 2005 Hg emissions
Very Preliminary Screening Modeling
• Three scenarios Lower bound - 50% NOx / 30% VOC
• All states and all sectors in the East
Upper bound - 70% NOx / 30% VOC
• All states and all sectors in the East
“Scenario 3” - OTC Strategy Run
• Tried to mimic federal rules and local controls being pursued by the OTC
• Many thanks to NYDEC & UMD
• Special thanks to Barbara Kwetz – We’ll miss you
• More later in Modeling session
Base Case N50/V30 N70/V30 “Scenario 3”
.084 ppm 34 (18%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
.070 ppm 167 (86%) 16 (8%) 1 (0%) 1 (0%)
.065 ppm 186 (96%) 55 (29%) 4 (2%) 12 (6%)
.060 ppm 191 (98%) 101 (53%) 15 (8%) 29 (15%)
Monitors in OTR 194 190 190 190
Results for Potential Nonattainment Levels
Inside the OTR
Monitors Above Potential Levels of the New Standard
Screening Modeling Results
What We Have Been Doing?
• New local (inside the OTR) controls Actions at last 4 OTC meetings pushing
Committees to develop new local control programs for selected source categories
More later
• National rules to reduce transport Actions at last 5 OTC meetings urging EPA
to move ahead with strong federal rules to address transport
September 2009 State Collaborative letter signed by 17 Midwest and OTC Commissioners
• Aggressive power plant controls and national rules for other source sectors
More later
Today’s Meeting
• Take action on new local (inside the OTR) control measures
• Push for help from EPA to reduce emissions from mobile sources
• Identify additional opportunities for additional local and national reductions
• Show results from preliminary modeling that outline a path forward
